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Leading Off:

WI-Gov: Is this the kind of ad a campaign certain of victory puts out? Most definitely not. Take a look at this vile new spot from GOP Gov. Scott Walker, which accuses Milwaukee mayor "Tom Barrett's police department" of not treating a serious child abuse case as a violent crime—and tries to personally blame him for mis-reported crime statistics:

According to the same newspaper report Walker's campaign relies on for this ad, the perpetrator of the crime in question was "convicted of felony child abuse" earlier this year. And Barrett isn't even mentioned in the article except for a single throw-away quote. Along with the fact that Republicans have released absolutely zero polling on this race, this desperate-sounding ad makes me wonder if they really might be nervous.

Senate:

IN-Sen: Is the healing beginning? If so, I can hardly feel it. Sen. Richard Lugar, on the man who defeated him in the GOP primary, Richard Mourdock:

"Well, I've indicated that I hope that Republicans in Indiana will support him because I support my leader Mitch McConnell in getting a Republican majority. I would say that I've offered advice to my former opponent—candidate—as to the kind of way he might be a constructive senator—how he can make any difference whatsoever. I hope that he will in fact begin to adopt some of those ideas. But for the time being, I don't plan an active campaign."
MA-Sen: GOP Sen. Scott Brown touts his bipartisanship while sitting in a diner, prompting a waitress to rather oddly exclaim that he "deserve[s] another cup" of coffee. Is that supposed to be code for "a second term"?

ME-Sen: The filing deadline for independents in Maine comes two-and-a-half months after the deadline for major-party candidates, which is why ex-Gov. Angus King is only now submitting signatures to appear on the ballot this fall. King also continued his habit of making grandiose statements about his own importance, this time suggesting that a small cabal of like-minded senators could hold the majority hostage:

"All it would take is four or five—a centrist coalition, if you will—who can have a great deal of influence on the course of modern American history."
As if the roadblocks to getting anything done in the Senate aren't already egregiously anti-democratic enough.

MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling. 5/24-27. Missouri voters. MoE: ±4.0% (1/27-29 results):

Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 44 (43)
Todd Akin (R): 45 (43)
Undecided: 11 (14)

Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 44 (43)
Sarah Steelman (R): 44 (43)
Undecided: 12 (13)

Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (43)
John Brunner (R): 44 (43)
Undecided: 11 (13)

Republican primary (MoE: ±4.7%):
Sarah Steelman (R): 28 (32)
John Brunner (R): 25 (18)
Todd Akin (R): 23 (23)
Other: 4 (--)
Undecided: 20 (28)
In the GOP contest, Brunner's used his considerable personal wealth to hit the airwaves pretty hard, which explains why he's eaten into Steelman's lead. As Tom Jensen points out, he's also the most popular candidate with "very conservative" voters, suggesting he's capturing some tea partyish fervor. And as for Akin, he was initially touted as a savior candidate for Republicans, but he's proven to be anything but.

Yet it may not matter. McCaskill's looking to be in very precarious shape, well below 50% and with only a 40% job approval rating vs. 50% who disapprove. Tom also notes that most of the undecideds lean Republican, so how she's supposed to win over those voters, I really don't know.

In separate news, the ultra-far-right Seventeenther movement has long amused me, but I find it even funnier when actual candidates for the Senate are among those who support repealing the amendment to the constitution that provides for direct election of senators. Joining the club now is GOP Rep. Todd Akin, who says he is "leaning" in favor of doing away with the 17th amendment. His two primary opponents, Sarah Steelman and John Brunner, are both opposed to the idea.

NM-Sen: The Albuquerque Journal has surveys out for both the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries (from pollster Research & Polling), and the results are pretty much what you'd expect. On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson is beating tea partying businessman Greg Sowards by a healthy 66-20 margin, while in the Dem contest, Rep. Martin Heinrich leads Auditor Hector Balderas 51-26.

Heinrich also has a new radio ad that's targeted toward Navajo Indians and is, in fact, in Navajo. A full transcript isn't available, but according to Heinrich's press release, it begins: "Our health. Our sovereignty. Our families' security. One person has listened to our concerns, and worked with us: Martin Heinrich."

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Should Republican-turned-independent ex-Gov. Charlie Crist make the complete metamorphosis to Democrat and run for his old job once again in 2014, a new poll shows him beating GOP Gov. Rick Scott 48-34. Note that the survey was taken by Florida Opinion Research, which I believe is a Republican outfit (they were last seen conducting a poll for Bob Crowder, who is challenging Allen West in the FL-18 GOP primary).

MI-Gov: GOP Gov. Rick Snyder's job approvals have taken a turn for the worse, dropping from 40-47 in February to 37-52 in PPP's new Michigan poll. More importantly, Mitt Romney is finding very soft support for his claim that trees in the Wolverine State are "the right height": Only 38% agree, while 8% disagree and 55% say "WTF?"

NC-Gov (PDF): The conservative Civitas Institute is out with their first post-primary poll of the gubernatorial race, from Republican pollster National Research. Unlike two other surveys (one from PPP, the other from SurveyUSA) which found the contest in the mid-single digits, Civitas has GOP nominee Pat McCrory up 48-38 over Democrat Walter Dalton. It's still a tightening: In March, McCrory led 48-32.

House:

AZ-08: Perhaps my favorite breed of the species Hypocriticus Republicanus are those GOPers who howl about the stimulus but turn out to have benefitted handsomely from it. Now, it's Jesse Kelly's turn:

But the family construction company where Kelly has worked for about eight years, Don Kelly Construction Inc., has benefited from at least three contracts financed by millions in stimulus dollars and has relied almost exclusively on government-funded pipeline projects for its business. [...]

The Arizona Republic has found that since 2010, additional stimulus and government-funded projects, totaling at least $60.8 million, have gone to the company.

Don Kelly is Jesse's father, and Jesse ultimately wound up as a project manager at his dad's firm. There's much more at the link, including details on each of the stimulus-funded projects Don Kelly Construction worked on.

Meanwhile, both Kelly and his Democratic opponent, Ron Barber, are getting squishy when it comes to demonstrating party loyalty. Barber, fresh off a debate last week where he wouldn't declare whether he'd vote for Barack Obama this fall, is now refusing to say whether he'd vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. But Kelly won't be able to make an issue of this, because he, too, won't tell the world whether he'll support John Boehner. Amusingly, Kelly's general consultant must not have realized that his candidate was also going to join the Wobbler Caucus, because a day earlier, he criticized Barber over Twitter regarding his Pelosi response. Oops!

Finally, Barber has a new positive spot out, mostly touting newspaper endorsements which praise him for being bipartisan.

CO-07: Wealthy Republican Joe Coors has reportedly bought a hefty $400K in ad time to air an introductory spot in which he says (swear to god) "I'm not a beer," snaps his fingers, and makes a glass of suds disappear. Message: JOE COORS WANTS TO TAKE AWAY MY BEER!

IL-10: The first public poll of the general election in Illinois's 10th Congressional District comes from Democrat Brad Schneider, whose survey (courtesy Normington Petts) shows him tied with GOP Rep. Bob Dold at 39 apiece. That's a very low figure for an incumbent, though remember that thanks to redistricting, Dold only represents 61% of the new 10th. Despite that, Dold doesn't have that much room to grow: He has 79% name recognition, versus just 35% for Schneider, and Dold's favorables are a fairly mediocre 35-31. Meanwhile, Barack Obama beats Mitt Romney 55-41; Obama beat John McCain here 63-36, so you can't call this an overly favorable sample for Schneider.

IL-12: Surprising news: Brad Harriman, the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Costello, released a statement Tuesday announcing that he is dropping out of the race "following consultation with his doctor regarding the need to address a non-life threatening neurological condition." The task will now fall to the local county Democratic party chairs to select a replacement candidate to run against Republican Jason Plummer. We wish Harriman a successful surgery and a speedy recovery.

As for potential candidates, Costello says he won't reconsider his decision to retire at the end of this term. However, one alternate possibility is state Rep. Jerry Costello, Jr., the congressman's son. His name surfaced last fall after his dad's retirement announcement but he declined to run. Now, though, the younger Costello's feelings may have changed.

In the meantime, as a result of this unexpected development, Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating on the race from Lean D to Tossup. Democrats will need to move quickly to find a replacement, but whomever they decide on will have to play a lot of catch-up. (James L & David Nir)

LA-02: Citing "multiple" unnamed sources, the Daily Kingfish's Lamar Parmentel says that former New Orleans mayor Marc Morial may be considering a challenge to freshman Rep. Cedric Richmond. (Both are Democrats.) Louisiana doesn't have proper primaries, but the top two vote-getters in the November general election move on to a December runoff if no one gets 50%. So even though it would ordinarily be quite late for Morial to enter the race, he'd still have five months to wage a fight. And by waiting, he might also be catching Richmond somewhat off-guard, seeing as the incumbent only has some $250K in the bank.

MI-11: Amazing: Five-term GOP Rep. Thad McCotter has now confirmed that he didn't submit a sufficient number of valid signatures to appear on the ballot this fall and will instead run a write-in campaign for the Republican nomination. If you're just catching up to this story now, click here for some vital background. But the scope of McCotter's fail is quite something to behold:

McCotter turned in 2,000 petition signatures to get on August primary ballot, but all except 244 have been deemed invalid because of rampant duplicated copies, the Michigan Secretary of State found.

A review by The Detroit News of the petition signatures found full copies of a sheet of signatures that were photocopied once and in some cases two times and mixed in with the 136-page stack of signatures. In some cases, a different petition circulator's name was signed to the duplicate copy.

The overt copying is "frankly unheard of," said Chris Thomas, Michigan's director of elections, as he thumbed through the stack of petitions. "It's amazing when you sit and look, and it starts to dwell on you what they've done."

So what happens next? This PDF summarizing how write-in campaigns work in Michigan is a good place to start. First, McCotter has to file a "Declaration of Intent" with election officials by July 27. But when voters mark their ballots, they can't simply write "Thad McCotter" (misspellings are okay, as long as the intent "is not doubtful")—they have to also "indicate" McCotter's party affiliation. That is, unless you write "Thad McCotter – Republican" (or something close to it), your vote won't count.

But that's not all. McCotter can then only win if he meets a legal threshold for a minimum number of votes. He has to get at least 5% as many votes as cast in the 11th District in the race which receives the most total votes in the district. That's almost certainly going to be the GOP Senate primary between Pete Hoekstra and Clark Durant. It's a little hard to ballpark how many that might be, since Republicans haven't staged a contested primary during a presidential year in a very long time, but McCotter's final minimum would be at least a few thousand votes, something he can probably hack.

Still, he also has to beat anyone else who runs, and right now, there's one person who will in fact appear on the ballot: teacher Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio, a tea partier, is a relative newcomer; he ran an unsuccessful race for state Senate last cycle and has raised little this year. But simply having to face an actual name is a big obstacle for any write-in hopeful.

And it's also possible McCotter won't be the only Republican who tries to go that route: State Sen. Mike Kowall, who actually briefly ran against McCotter earlier this cycle but ultimately bailed, is had considered holding the door open to a return to the race via a write-in bid of his own. (However, two other Republicans say they won't run: former MI-09 candidate Rocky Raczkowski and wealthy local attorney David Trott.) A more prominent Democrat could also try to jump in as a write-in, but so far, the Great Mentioner has remained silent. That means physician Syed Taj will likely be Team Blue's guy, though he'll have to beat a LaRouchie nutcase in the primary.

We should also point out that McCotter doesn't have a lot of money in the bank, just $193K. He also has over $100K in debt from his pathetically disastrous presidential bid last year (yeah, remember that?). While he can probably let some of those bills slide for a while longer, his largest obligation, $35,000, is to his consulting firm. Are those guys gonna force him to pay up before they do any more work for him? Given his weak finances and inept campaign team, either the NRCC is going to have to save McCotter's ass here—or find another, better candidate to support in a write-in bid.

Also, the state attorney general's office is now investigating McCotter's campaign for possible election fraud with regard to his disastrous signature-gathering efforts. That's going to leave an ugly cloud hanging over McCotter's head as he proceeds with this rather difficult endeavor.

As a result of these stunning, hard-to-believe developments, Daily Kos Elections is changing its rating on this race from Safe R to Likely R. While any number of different scenarios are possible, for the moment, we're operating under the assumption that McCotter will prevail in his primary, but that he'll emerge weaker for his troubles. In the meantime, Taj should be able to capitalize on his unthinkable good fortune and set himself up for a possible upset in the fall. Of course, if McCotter fails and Bentivolio is the nominee, then everything changes.

MI-13: Remarkably, while Thad McCotter just got booted from the ballot for filing an insufficient number of signatures, another Michigan congressman is going to skate: Rep. John Conyers submitted just 51 more signatures than the legal minimum, but none of his primary opponents are challenging his petitions. But five other candidates are under scrutiny, and one has already gotten dinged.

NM-01: We went from having no recent polling at all to having no fewer than five surveys of the Democratic primary in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District in the space of a week. The latest is from the firm Research & Polling, on behalf of the Albuquerque Journal and KOAT-TV, and the numbers are similar to what we've seen before: State Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham are tied at 33 apiece, while former Albuquerque mayor Marty Chavez is way back at 20. Election day is just a week away, and it looks like it could be a long night as between Griego and Lujan Grisham, but the good news is that the conservaDem Chavez apparently just isn't in the mix.

NY-06: Retiring Rep. Gary Ackerman has sided with the Queens Democratic establishment and endorsed their preferred candidate, Assemblywoman Grace Meng, to succeed him in the House. But note that Ackerman only represents 38% of the redrawn 6th, so his name won't be known to a lot of voters in the district.

SC-07: In case you missed it, after dropping out of the 7th District congressional race in the wake of an arrest on drunken driving and weapons possession charges, Democratic state Rep. Ted Vick nevertheless said he plans to "humbly seek re-election" to the state House this fall. (He'd actually been running in both races simultaneously.)

With Vick now gone, the Dem establishment is rallying around attorney Preston Brittain instead: The state's lone Democratic member of Congress, James Clyburn, is endorsing Brittain, as is ex-Rep. John Spratt, ex-Gov. Jim Hodges, and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Vincent Sheheen. (Spratt and Sheheen had both previously endorsed Vick.) Brittain still faces a primary against former Georgia state Rep. Gloria Tinubu.

Redistricting Roundup:

MO Redistricting: It was a long time in coming, but the Missouri Supreme Court finally turned back a challenge to the state's new congressional map by supporters of Rep. Russ Carnahan. In an earlier ruling, the court had temporarily sided with Carnahan's camp, ordering a lower court to conduct a trial on his claims that the new lines were insufficiently "compact" under the state constitution. But the trial court ruled against the plaintiffs, and their appeal has now failed, too. (You can read a PDF of the full decision here.) In the interim, Carnahan announced that he'd run against fellow Rep. Lacy Clay in the Democratic primary in MO-01, but he wasted a lot of time and focus on what always seemed like a pretty hopeless lawsuit.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Maybe Walker isn't confident because of this... (14+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    They are expecting nearly presidential turnout...  If so, that bodes better for us.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:07:03 AM PDT

  •  RedState thinks it's the final nail in the coffin (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, StellaRay, itskevin, askew

    ....for Barrett. Apparently they don't pay attention over there.

    Walker's low-key non-involvement debate doesn't mesh with this in-your-face ad. Seems they've just done a 180.

    http://www.redstate.com/...

  •  Kochs plan to spend $400 million in 2012 (5+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:18:45 AM PDT

    •  People like Koch's buy insurance (0+ / 0-)

      "Along with the fact that Republicans have released absolutely zero polling on this race, this desperate-sounding ad makes me wonder if they really might be nervous."

      Of course they're "nervous"!  They have everything to lose and nothing to "win" in this recall.  I remember a quote from a movie that said "...only the stupid never fear", or something like that.

      This is insurance.  It is intended to dissuade any last minute fence sitters from showing up to support Barrett.  Doubt and Trust are the two most important words in any election, and they are basically the same.  Make voters doubt your opponent (Bush II did to Kerry, and Bush I did to Dukakis), or compromise their trust in your opponent or brand (Clinton in 1996 and Bush II in 2000), and you can win even with a flawed candidate/message/record.

      This ad is designed to create a little doubt among the least informed - who at this point are probably the only ones in WI without a committment in this election.

    •  It's all part of the game..intimidation mind game (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peptabysmal
  •  Conservatives plan on $1 billion ad blitz... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    antirove, stevenaxelrod, supercereal

    Scary stuff... very scary indeed...

    http://www.politico.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:20:21 AM PDT

  •  Perhaps there's a story in the crime (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, rosarugosa

    statistics for Wisconsin as a whole.  The instinct-driven usually attack where they themselves are weakest.

    That said, everybody knows that arrest records and reported crimes are almost meaningless.  Aren't arrests in Madison way up because of the effort to keep protesters in line?

    Perhaps this ad is preemptive, an effort to prevent or mitigate the exposure of Walker's criminal involvement.

    People to Wall Street: "LET OUR MONEY GO"

    by hannah on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:20:23 AM PDT

  •  I wouldn't overread into Walker's ad/polling (10+ / 0-)

    First, one thing I really don't like is when people try to read something into nondisclosure of private polling.  No campaign wants to release private polling!  They do so very seldom, and only under limited circumstances when they think a potential fundraising gain or media spin outweighs the risks of disclosing confidential data.  In Walker's case, every public poll and even disclosed Dem private polling all show Walker winning, the spin says he's got it, and he's raised all the money he needs.  So he has no reason to disclose anything.

    Second, you don't just run a negative ad when you're in trouble, you run it even if you're winning but it's still close.  It makes no more sense to read "trouble for Walker" into Walker's attack ad than it does to read "trouble for Obama" into his attack ads against Romney.  Like Obama, Walker appears to be winning, but just not in a blowout, so you still want to hit your opponent however you can.

    The one thing that makes me hang on to hope in this is the apparent higher-than-expected turnout.  There's a chance that will prove the turnout models wrong.  Of course, we thought the same in the MA-Sen special election in 2010, when turnout was at a midterm general level, and yet the polls were right and Brown still won because ultimately there were too many Brown indies and defecting Dems no matter the turnout.  The same is possible here, we all expect the Circle of Ignorance to show up strong, no way to know how it  really breaks down statewide until they start counting them.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:38:07 AM PDT

    •  Excellent points. n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, tietack, R30A

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:51:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Though Coakley did close at little (4+ / 0-)

      The average for the final polls was 51-43 when he ended up winning 52-47.

      Now, in Wisconsin it could be higher Republican turnout given the likely voter projections but that doesn't seem to jibe with strong early voting in heavily Democratic areas.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:03:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, you know what that reminds me of? (5+ / 0-)

        In Kathy Hochul's special election win over Jane Corwin in update New York, there were reports during the day that the Republicans were very happy with high turnout in rural areas.

        But when the votes in those rural counties were counted, Hochul simply overperformed in them compared to a normal Democrat.  It turned out that the "high" turnout was thanks to anti-Republican voters, indies and Dems, turning out at higher rates than GOP voters.  This, even though these were strong Republican rural counties.  So when the

        Yes, that's unusual, usually high turnout in a strongly partisan area indicates high turnout by the party that dominates that area.  So if there's strong turnout in Dane and Milwaukee, yeah, that probably benefits Barrett.  But we can't be sure, there are surprises sometimes.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:31:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's not conventional campaign wisdom (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      (which I realize is changing). Otherwise, Ron Barber wouldn't be releasing positive ads at this point, diary ref

      Finally, Barber has a new positive spot out, mostly touting newspaper endorsements which praise him for being bipartisan.

      Alternatively, Barber is the one who is up by > 10, in which case, I'd suppose the positive ad would make sense to both of us.

      The other explanation for Walker's negative ads (and the non-release of Barrett internals by Yang's firm yesterday) is that (shhhhhh) Barrett is taking the lead (shhhhhhh), both sides know, and that Barrett doesn't want the internals released any more because he wants everyone to focus on GOTV.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:09:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Turnout projections are very favorable for us (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Turnout in 2010 was 49%, and it was unusually high among Republicans. The GAB is projecting turnout of 60-65% (compared with 69% in 2008). If those numbers are borne out that means the people who showed up in 2008 but not 2010 are showing up, and most of those were Democrats.

  •  Greek elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, stevenaxelrod

    While a bunch of polls have come out in the last few days have given New Democracy a narrow lead, one out today has Syriza ahead 30 to 26.5.

    http://www.forexlive.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:43:01 AM PDT

    •  SYRIZA troubles being are waaaaay over blown (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, stevenaxelrod

      GPO is the only one that's showed a statistically significant ND lead and they're worthless, they have no trackrecord and that was their first poll. If you graph it out SYRIZA has been steadily growing their share of the vote throughout the last week and GPO is a major outlier of a dip in that climb.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:04:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Natural progression (6+ / 0-)

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    "The goal is to illustrate that Romney has made the same promises before with unimpressive results, officials say."

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:07:40 AM PDT

    •  Here's why Obama is clearly winning right now... (7+ / 0-)

      ...in two Mark Murray (NBC political team) tweets:

      Mark Murray‏ @mmurraypolitics
      First Read: 10 hottest advertising markets tell us 2012 race is being fought on GOP turf http://on.msnbc.com/...
      And......
      Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics
      The 10 markets are in NC, VA, OH, IA, CO -- all states Bush carried in '04, and 3 of them are in states Kerry didn't even contest in '04
      That is why Mitt would lose were the election today.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:36:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Great minds. You beat me by all of two seconds!

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:41:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Precisely correct. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, askew

        Last August, it looked like Obama would have to fight in a lot of base states.  Since the economy turned more positive last fall and he reinvented himself as a populist, the blue states have become more secure and Obama starts the election campaign playing mostly on GOP/battleground turf.  That's the good news.  The challenge is that he needs continued solid economic performance that is above the April baseline in order to secure victory.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:02:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ugh (6+ / 0-)

    Lincoln, NE to vote on LGBT nondiscrimination protections in November

    Direct democracy is so great, guys! Why don't the voters of Lincoln just vote on what I have for dinner tonight too? Anything else would be anti-democratic.

    Male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Kyoto-06 (Japan) in August

    by sapelcovits on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:24:17 AM PDT

  •  GOP turf (7+ / 0-)

    "Six of the top 10 advertising markets are in North Carolina and Virginia... (Still don't think that North Carolina is a true battleground?) The other four markets are in Colorado, Ohio, and Iowa."

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:36:58 AM PDT

  •  Wait a minute (6+ / 0-)

    Didn't the Milwaukee Police Department's union endorse WALKER?  So, don't the allegations in Walker's own ad, true or not, imply that again, those allied with Scott Walker flaunt the law and then lie about it?

  •  WI Recall (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Seem like it has been very quiet in terms of polling etc. We should expect some sort of polling burst in the next day or two, no? It is less than one week now.

    2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

    by HarlemUSA on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:45:05 AM PDT

    •  Marquette poll coming out this afternoon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:49:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

        It's a little concerning that Barrett stopped releasing those internals. Suggests to me that they are not as close as they were late last week.

        Marquette has had a pro-Walker sample, correct?

        2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

        by HarlemUSA on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:51:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It was also Memorial weekend (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:54:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Marquette's poll is bullshit. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          The poll was done a week ago, ignore it.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:57:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Read my comment above, dumbest mistake... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, dufffbeer

          ...that campaign junkies and, sadly, political reporters make is to try to read something into nondisclosure of private polling.

          It makes me pull my hair out, especially from the media because they have a professional responsibility to become informed about how and why campaigns operate like they do.

          Private polling is private for a reason, because it's valuable data that the other side can and will use against you.  If you disclose your private numbers, you better be confident that the value in fundraising or setting or defeating an existing media or voter perception outweighs the risk of tipping your hand to your opponent.  Because that's seldom the case, private polling is seldom released.

          It means nothing that Barrett and his allies haven't released "more" internals, and foolish to read anything into it.

          And Walker, for his part, hasn't released any internals, ever......and it's foolish to read anything into that, too.

          I'm hopeful based on the early turnout that maybe the race really is tightening and Barrett is in this for real, that maybe it could be a true tossup by election day...it was never a big deficit to begin with.  But we can't discern anything from nondisclosure of private polling.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:36:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  They didn't poll over the holiday weekend (0+ / 0-)

          is all.

  •  Bravo (6+ / 0-)

    Artur Davis! The first thing you've done in a long time that I can agree with!

    Former Alabama Rep. Artur Davis announced Tuesday that he’s cutting ties with the Democratic Party, and said that he’s considering a future bid for Congress as a Republican.

    Davis, who for a time had been considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, wrote a message on his website confirming that he is switching parties.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:47:48 AM PDT

  •  That's some endorsement of Mourdock by Lugar. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TKO333, sapelcovits, peptabysmal

    Luger is basically saying that he can't stand the guy, but he will support the turd anyway, just because he's a Republican.

    Way to put country over party, DICK.

    Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

    by shoeless on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:49:45 AM PDT

  •  Federal Grand Jury convened according to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Short Bus

    Mal Contends.  This website has a good history of reporting stories before the media.

  •  FL 7: Mica by 30 over Adams (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, askew, sapelcovits

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:51:54 AM PDT

  •  WI-SD-21 - pro-Wanggaard front group mailer (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Not too long ago, a pro-Wanggaard front group sent out a mailer to SD-21 residents suggesting that John Lehman, who is running against Wanggaard in the SD-21 recall election, is soft on crime. I have a feeling that Lehman might be slightly favored in the SD-21 race, the last poll was a couple of weeks ago and showed Wanggaard leading within the margin of error.

    I have a feeling that the Walker campaign is very concerned that they might be losing, so they're going to resort to the hail-mary pass play in their playbook, which involves attacking their opponent for being soft on crime, as it seems to be a Republican hallmark for them to do so when they feel that they're in trouble.

    •  Is that the Willie Horton mailer? (0+ / 0-)

      They seem to like racist innuendos a few weeks before the election here. The SD8 race last year was full of those, along with just about every other sort of nasty negativity imaginable (though admittedly Darling didn't try and out Pasch as an adulteress, child molester, or lesbian).

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed May 30, 2012 at 09:21:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A baseball fan for Scott Brown (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, thiroy, Khun David
    he "deserve[s] another cup" of coffee
    Maybe she was a baseball fan (old school) - when a minor leaguer was brought up to the majors to fill a spot due to an injury, the player would refer to his time as "a cup of coffee with the big club" when he returned to the minors.
  •  We need to keep Cedric Richmond (10+ / 0-)

    He single-handedly won the Congressional Baseball Game for the Democrats last year, pitching a complete game one-hitter, striking out 13, and taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:10:29 AM PDT

  •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    conniptionfit
    Wealthy Republican Joe Coors has reportedly bought a hefty $400K in ad time to air an introductory spot in which he says (swear to god) "I'm not a beer," snaps his fingers, and makes a glass of suds disappear. Message: JOE COORS WANTS TO TAKE AWAY MY BEER!

    He made the glass disappear twice!  Okay, that might excite the tee(-tottler) party wing of the Republican party, but I would have thought that any competent politician and/or political campaign manager would take the time to review his or her campaign commercials the sound OFF.

    It's about time I changed my signature.

    by Khun David on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:20:14 AM PDT

  •  Heh. Here in Colorado (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dalfireplug, bumiputera, sawolf, askew, geoneb

    We already know Coors isn't beer.

  •  About that McCotter affair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TKO333

    The McCotter thing would only connect with my recent experiences if he was done in by professional signature gatherers.  If this was the work of amateurs, all bets are off.

    My recent experience is that I have found myself on several R mailing lists on which I really, really do not belong.  It may not be totally unreasonable to send the low cost mailers on a broadcast basis, to all registered voters, or robocall all RVs, but I've been getting the high-end, high-expense mailers (2-3 oz, with those push-poll type "surveys", with pre-stamped return envelopes), plus calls from live campaign workers.  

    Both these approaches are obviously pitched at SRs, they don't try for persuasion, as if they have me pegged as a U.  

    Pitch aside, no way does it make any sense to mail or phone anything that money or man-hour intensive on a broadcast basis, to all RVs.  It's much cheaper to work a list, even if you have to pay for a list, of people likely to respond to your approach, before you go in with anything that expensive.  

    I clearly do not belong on any good guy list for their team.  I always vote in D primaries, which is a matter of public record in my state.  I am a member of my county's D committee, also public record.  I contribute, and contribute generously relative to my income, solely to D candidates -- which is also public record.

    Any half-way competent mailing operation would work from at least a low-cost, public record list, for at least its high-expense contacts.  The R campaigns sending me these mailers, and having people call me in person, have had clear political malpractice perpetrated on them, and I wonder if maybe the McCotter signature fiasco can be explained the same way, political malpractice by a paid signature-gathering outfit.

    This is all to the good, as long as it happens to their side only.  But that's what's so strange here.  Their side invented this stuff, they invented targeted maling operations.  

    I just put this out to see if others have had similar experiences tending to support the same idea that maybe there is a widespread malpractice "problem" out there, vs my experience being a fluke.

    We should have destroyed the presidency before Obama took office. Too late now.

    by gtomkins on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:31:11 AM PDT

    •  I would submit that it doesn't matter... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gtomkins

      the buck stops with McCotter.  Now, if he hired a firm, and they burned him on the signatures, that sucks for him.  But, none the less, he should be held accountable for that.  What happens when he is in office, making judgements that will cost taxpayers millions of dollars, put real lives in jeopardy, reflect upon the image we wish to project to the world?  I am not really surprised that so many candidates in Michigan are under scrutiny, really.  In a state that has repeatedly passed laws violating its citizens constitutional rights under the state administration, I cannot imagine what other kind of political climate you would expect to find.

      •  Fools in office... (0+ / 0-)

        .. are arguably worse than knaves in office, so yes, I agree totally that this speaks very poorly for the guys's fitness to hold office.

        My point was to see if this political malpractice (if that's what this was, and not amateurs in his campaign) is part of a larger pattern including my experience with criminal incompetence in the mailings I've been getting.  Isolated mistakes are one thing, especially if it's just one not very competitive House seat, but the folks I got the mailings from were the RNC and the Koch-funded Walker campaign.  Both can well afford targeting lists, and cannot afford to not target their high-cost mailings.  The Walker mailing had the effect of reminding me to contribute more to his ouster.  You don't jog the memory of people who are solidly against you, even if money were no object.

        We should have destroyed the presidency before Obama took office. Too late now.

        by gtomkins on Wed May 30, 2012 at 10:01:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I take your point... (0+ / 0-)

          that it could be useful to know the motivations of the people behind the signatures it would yield some useful information.  My guess is, considering the shuffling of the signatures and the people who got them, that this was no innocent mistake...  Ultimately, knowing would still just lead to more questions - like what did the candidate know, and when.  

  •  WATN (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, jj32, HoosierD42, sapelcovits

    Former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley is running for Minnesota Supreme Court. Unclear which justice he will be taking on, but both Stras and Andersen are Pawlenty appointees.

    File this one under WATN

    http://m.startribune.com/....

  •  Pricesell (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    "But the icing on the cake was the glitch in a Romney campaign Web app, “With Mitt.”

    http://blogs.wsj.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:49:43 AM PDT

  •  TX - 16 (0+ / 0-)

    Perhaps not the right place to post, but I'd like to share nonetheless. It appears that Beto O'Rourke has won against incumbent Silvestre Reyes. O'Rourke got just over 50%, so there won't be a runoff. Yay!

    Your left is my right---Mort Sahl

    by HappyinNM on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:53:39 AM PDT

  •  Observation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14

    Scott Walker is a small man and I don't mean size.

    Jesus was a bleeding heart liberal

    by BeeClone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 08:17:18 AM PDT

  •  Scott Brown (0+ / 0-)

    If he thinks he's the most bipartisan Senator, then he doesn't deserve another cup of coffee, he needs one.

    "Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach." - Originally said by someone who can do neither.

    by bondibox on Wed May 30, 2012 at 08:21:13 AM PDT

  •  TX-SEN; TX-22 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Mark27, stevenaxelrod

    Sigh. Only semi-viable Senate candidate in a run-off with a some dude. Nick Lampson's old district twice nominates a LaRouchite. No Democratic opposition to a statewide GOP candidate indicted for arson in 2008.

    This, people, this is why we can't have nice things.

    •  If it makes you feel better, (0+ / 0-)

      Lampson ran in TX-14 and won handily. It's Paul's district, so difficult for a Dem. And remember, Lampson old district (22) used to be Tom DeLay's. They like criminals.

      Your left is my right---Mort Sahl

      by HappyinNM on Wed May 30, 2012 at 11:45:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I see ElectoralVote has relaunched (0+ / 0-)

    Now updating maps on the presidential race.

    They have a fairly crude methodology for assigning ratings (just the last state poll if it was a recent one) but there's plenty of interesting stuff on the site and the fact they retain the history of previous projections (just keep clicking the "previous report" button) means you can see all the past ebbs and flows.

    Current rating is 294-235 Obama, 9 tossup.

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