The second biggest election day of 2012 is right on the doorstep, and there is quite a bit of data on what has become the biggest event of the night. And all I can say about that is that someone is gonna have some egg on their face by this time on Wednesday...
We also get our first non-internal poll in the big Shberman showdown, a pair of new polls on the mega-Senate showdown in Massachusetts, and dueling internals in one of the few contested races in Pennsylvania this Fall.
On to the numbers!
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)
MASSACHUSETTS (Boston Globe): Obama d. Romney (46-34)
MASSSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama d. Romney (56-34)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
CA-30 (USC/Dornsife): Brad Sherman (D) 32, Howard Berman (D) 24, Mark Reed (R) 10, Navraj Singh (R) 4, Michael Powelson (G) 4, Susan Shelley (R) 2, Vince Gilmore (D) 2A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
MA-SEN (Boston Globe): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 39, Elizabeth Warren (D) 37
MA-SEN (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 45, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43
MO-SEN--R (American Viewpoint for Brunner): John Brunner 30, Todd Akin 23, Sarah Steelman 22
PA-06 (Lake Research for Trivedi): Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 45, Manan Trivedi (D) 33
PA-06 (WPA Opinion Research for Gerlach): Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 55, Manan Trivedi (D) 23
WI-GOV (Angus Reid): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 51, Tom Barrett (D) 46
WI-GOV (Garin-Hart-Yang for Barrett): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Tom Barrett (D) 48
WI-GOV (PPP): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 47
WI-GOV (We Ask America--R): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 54, Tom Barrett (D) 42
The big enchilada, but of course, are the recall elections in Wisconsin. What is particularly intriguing about those races is that we really have seen very little data at the last on any of the elections outside of the gubernatorial recall. Therefore, we don't have much of a feel for the state of play in the Lt. Gubernatorial recall of Republican Rebecca Kleefisch, or the quartet of state senate recalls that are at the ready tomorrow evening.
And, quite candidly, it is tough to get a feel on the gubernatorial race with the available polling, either. PPP shows a distinct tightening of the race, while We Ask America sees no movement at all. Tom Barrett's campaign still shows a willingness to release their internal numbers, and in a funny twist, found in their final poll that Scott Walker's lead had been reduced to one. One respondent, not one percent. Meanwhile, team Walker held their polling to the vest throughout, leading us to wonder if they kept their numbers quiet because their numbers were not terribly different from the Barrett campaign's polling.
Some in the Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections community have looked at the pre-election polls and can see a path to victory for Barrett. It would be an upset—he hasn't led in a single poll conducted since he clinched the Democratic primary in the recall election last month. But it is not impossible, especially if turnout approaches presidential level, instead of a more reduced 2010 turnout model.
In other polling news...
- In the only other "right before the vote" poll conducted over the weekend, we see that the nightmare scenario for some California Democrats is appearing exceedingly likely to take place. Tomorrow's California primary may well just be Shberman, round one. That's because Democratic incumbents Brad Sherman and Howard Berman are lapping the field in California's heavily Democratic 30th district. Republican candidates don't even break a combined 20 percent in this poll, which makes it seem essentially impossible for one of them to break through to November. Which means that the $5 million already spent on this showdown will be a drop in the electoral bucket by Election Day, a mere five months away.
- This weekend, we received two more pieces of evidence that, despite the relentless flogging of the Native American "scandal" by the Republicans and Scott Brown, he still cannot escape Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who leads him in one poll and trails him by just two in another, somewhat suspect poll (sorry, folks, but any poll that has Obama up just 12 in Massachusetts is pretty damned suspect).
- Finally, we have dueling internal polls in Pennsylvania. There are some distinctions—Trivedi's is current, while Gerlach's is a bit dusty (conducted in March). The new district has a lot of new territory for Gerlach packed with unfamiliar voters, but it is also considerably more Republican territory, so there are trade-offs at work here. It is worth noting, as my Daily Kos Elections colleague James L. noted earlier today, that Jim Gerlach has a history of suspiciously rosy internal polling.