This afternoon I watched the NN panel on the Congressional races and was interested to hear one of the panelists identify the ND Open Senate Race (for Kent Conrad's seat) between Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rick Berg (R) as his favorite "Dark Horse" race. I thought to myself, "Heidi's no dark horse!" Heidi has always been extraordinarily popular in North Dakota and she's also the hardest working candidate they've seen out there since Conrad himself first undertook a scrappy 1986 campaign that unseated Mark Andrews who had been a long-time Congressman and one-term Senator. Andrews had won his Senate election with 70% of the vote in 1980.
Today, results of an independent poll were released showing Heitkamp with a slim lead in the race. An earlier internal poll had shown her ahead but having that lead confirmed by an independent poll is a great boost to the campaign. More below the squiggle.
The poll, by Mason Dixon Polling Group, shows Heitkamp, a former ND Attorney General, up 47% - 46% over one-term House member, Rick Berg, who decided to try to move to the Senate before he'd finished his first year in the House. All respondents indicated they expected to vote in November and only 7% said they were undecided. Here's the local news story:
http://www.valleynewslive.com/...
Heitkamp breaks the 50% line with independents -- winning their approval 51% -36% over Berg, with 13% undecided. She'll need to pick up more of those independent votes to win the race, as Republicans abound in North Dakota, but I am confident she will do that. As well, the State's history over the past half century of sending Democrats to Washington (Burdick, Dorgan, Conrad) and electing Democratic Governors (Bill Guy was elected four times to that office, and Art Link and George Sinner each twice), shows a distinct willingness to cross party lines in a state that consistently votes Republican in the Presidential race and almost always gives Republicans unassailable control of both houses of the Legislature.
Sadly, to win this seat, one simply can't be the most progressive of liberals and I expect many here will find especially that Heitkamp's connections to the energy industry give pause. I was terribly sorry that see felt she had to criticize Obama's XL Pipeline decision, and I expect to be disappointed by her again. But, she's our only hope out there, and she's not a bad choice. Rick Berg would be a BAD CHOICE.
Big money (including a huge chunk from the Chamber of Commerce) came into ND in 2010 to elect Berg, a multi-millionaire real estate tycoon who defeated long-time Dem. Rep. Earl Pomeroy. They will be back in full force to try to win this relatively inexpensive Senate Seat. But, I'm going to be surprised if almost every North Dakotan hasn't personally met Heidi Heitkamp before the campaign is over; and she's an appealing candidate whom it will be hard to tear down. Her strong support among women will be a ballast against the rough winds ahead.