Nate Silver, quite possibly the most rigorous, thoughtful election analyst, has posted his first Electoral Forecast of the Presidential Race. I t show Obama with approximately a 60% chance of winning re-election with the most important states being, unsurprisingly, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, what he refers to as tipping point states.
Nate does give many caveats throughout, as would be expected, mostly about the dearth of good polling and the fact that there is still five months to go.
The model right now is alaso swayed by economic indicators that tend to wear off as the election gets closer.
This economic index, which is scaled on a similar basis to gross domestic product and now reads at 2.2 percent, exerts a gravitational pull on the forecast. Right now, it suggests that the economy is in a state where the election “should” be very close. If Mr. Obama develops a large lead in the polls — without any underlying improvement in the economic fundamentals — it will therefore adjust his numbers downward. Likewise, if Mr. Romney were to build a clear lead in the polls, it would shave some of that advantage off, unless that came because of a deterioration in economic circumstances.
The model is designed such that this economic gravitational pull becomes less as the election draws nearer — until on Election Day itself, the forecast is based solely on the polls and no longer looks at economic factors.
I think his assessment at this point is quite good and fair. My personal belief is that the polls will become more favorable as the election goes on. Mitt Romney is not a likable guy, regardless of his policies, I think folks will find him out-of-touch and bland, especially compared to Obama. It may be sad but it seems to be that relatablility/likability is a key factor in elections. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter were all likable in a campaign sense (not necessarily in a real sense....Bush). Now their opponents regardless of their policies, Dukakis, Dole, Mondale, Kerry, McCain were not dynamic, very boring. It may seem like a very superficial analysis, but I truly believe it.
Of course things could change dramatically if any number of things happen especially to the economy, but at this time I am pretty confident (although I completely understand that being confident does not mean we should not be working hard to get this thing done.)