Does anyone know who called the election first? Wikipedia quotes Politico, who sources AP - as do several other news resources I've checked. But, nothing is listed on the AP site but a bunch of articles praising Walker's victory. When it comes to the actual calling of the election, there are no election numbers nor any articles or press release on the AP site to call the election…yet, it appears that they called the election. Certainly, no Wisconsin official has - the Government Accountability Board has stated it will not post any final numbers at least until June 23, 2012. In fact, the GAB is deferring people to AP for pending results. I don't like the sound of that, and when I add to all this the fact that very few counties or cities seem to be posting their numbers, and that Madison reports 44,000 more than Dane County is for Madison, and I’m getting more than just a bit concerned about the integrity of this election. And my research into this "who called the election first" question isn't easing my mind...
According to this New York Times article, Edison Research (out of New Jersey) did the exit polling, which was provided to the National Election Pool. Wikipedia describes the NEP as “a consortium of American news organizations formed in 2003 to provide "information on Election Night about the vote count, election analysis and election projections." (Note:I was unable to find a web site or any physical location for the NEP). AP (our "official" unofficial source for election results) being a member of the NEP, gets its election poll information from NEP (see AP’s FAQ). Interestingly, according to that same Wikipedia article, the NEP relies on the Associated Press to perform vote tabulations" Isn’t that a nifty little loop for whomever they say won?
Also interestingly, the other members of the NEP include: FOX, CNN, NBC, CBS, and ABC. All the major networks and, as you probably know, the first four called the election for Walker almost simultaneously within an hour of the polls closing.
Seriously, am I the only one who smells something rotten in Fitzwalkerstan??? Does it help to know that Edison Research was embroiled in the stolen 2004 Florida election?
Wake up people, THE REPUBLICAN MACHINE STOLE THE RECALL ELECTION!
UPDATE: The New York Times article quote above said this about how the poll results NYT posted were done:
"The exit poll was based on questionnaires completed by 2,457 voters on Tuesday as they left 35 randomly selected precincts throughout Wisconsin. The poll was conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, N.J. for the National Election Pool which consists of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.Was the election decided based on this small sampling? Is that why it was called so quickly?
In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results from such polls should differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from what would have been obtained by seeking to survey all voters who participated in the Wisconsin recall election. Results based on smaller sub-groups, like demographic groups or backers of a particular candidate, have a larger potential sampling error.
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of voter opinion on election day, like the reluctance of some voters to take time to fill out the questionnaire, may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J. assisted The Times in its polling analysis."