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Leading Off:

NV-St. Sen: Here's an interesting—and welcome—story out of Tuesday night's primaries in Nevada. Local progressives had long been unhappy with Democratic state Sen. John Lee over his conservative-leaning record and backed first-time candidate Patricia Spearman, a gay minister, in the primary. The AP summarizes some of his apostasies:

But he was targeted by environmentalists and conservationists upset over Lee's sponsorship of 2011 bill that paved the way for Nevada to withdraw from a partnership with California that governs development and environmental regulations at Lake Tahoe.

Lee, who has served in the Senate since 2004, also ran afoul of the more liberal members of the Democratic Party for opposing a 2009 domestic partnership law that extended rights to cohabitating gay and heterosexual couples. Lee also opposed a failed Democratic plan last year to raise taxes.

Progressive support didn't come with a lot of money, though: Spearman was outraised $200K to just $13K. Lee also had the backing of the Democratic establishment, including Sen. Harry Reid's endorsement, and outside groups spent on his behalf as well. Nevertheless, Spearman rode to a stunning upset in Senate District 1, crushing Lee by a 63-37 margin. The best part is that this is a blue seat, and no Republican even filed to run here this year. (The only other candidate on the ballot is "Independent American" Gregory Hughes.) So Spearman should now be all but assured of victory in November, and her presence will help push the Nevada Democratic caucus in a more progressive direction.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: GOP Rep. Jeff Flake, who's been watching free-spending businessman Wil Cardon gain on him in the primary, is finally going up with his first ad, for a reported $373K buy. Flake tries to fluff his right-wing credentials, with the narrator intoning: "Many call him the most conservative Congressman in Washington." The ad also takes a small dig at Cardon, saying: "Fella running against Jeff tries to say otherwise, but we all know better."

OH-Sen: Props to the Huffington Post's Matt Sledge for trying to get to the bottom of who's behind the non-profit group calling itself the "Government Integrity Fund," which has spent at least $238K airing ads to boost the candidacy of Republican Josh Mandel. Of course, Sledge ran into a brick wall, getting no further than the attorney listed on the organization's incorporation papers, who offered up no hints about the group's donors—even going so far as to claim their names were protected by attorney-client privilege! (Fat chance.) But at least stories like this shine a light on our bogus campaign finance disclosure rules.

Anyhow, you can watch the ad at the link, which focuses on Mandel's military service and features him delivering a 7th grade-level civics lecture. Since the Government Integrity Fund is a 501(c)4 non-profit, it can't run campaign ads and is limited to those phony "issue" ads you see so often. But their spot treads awfully close to the line, with Mandel actually referring to "this campaign" in one quote, and no pretense that there's any "issue" the ad is concerned about. Of course, our toothless enforcement system probably makes going after the appallingly-named Government Integrity Fund close to pointless, but this seems sketchy to me.

Gubernatorial:

NC-Gov: PPP's latest North Carolina poll has Republican Pat McCrory edging up to a 47-40 lead over Democrat Walter Dalton. Last month it was 46-40 McCrory. There are also some results for other competitive statewide races, including treasurer, auditor and agriculture commissioner.

House:

AZ-08/AZ-02: Democrat Ron Barber's six-point victory over Republican Jesse Kelly in Tuesday night's special election is even more impressive than it looks at first glance. Why? Thanks to redistricting, Barber (and possibly Kelly) will now run this November in a redrawn seat (renumbered AZ-02) that is bluer than the one the special was just held in. (The old AZ-08 went for McCain 52-46; the new AZ-02, just 50-49.) But there's more to it than that: In the parts of AZ-02 retained from old AZ-08, Obama lost 48-51, but Barber won 53-44—a considerably wider margin than his overall six-point edge on Tuesday.

On top of that, the brand-new section of AZ-02 went for Obama by a punishing 66-32, meaning that Barber's Republican opponent in the regular November election will encounter a bunch of hostile new turf. Indeed, if Barber faces off against Kelly again, it's hard to see how Kelly wouldn't fare even worse. There's also the possibility that former air force combat pilot Martha McSally could beat Kelly in the August primary, especially if the GOP is eager for a new face after two consecutive Kelly losses. (Ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords also beat him in 2010.) That would probably mean a tougher encore for Barber, but he'd still be favored. (For his part, Barber now faces a primary against state Rep. Matt Heinz, but I suspect there will be a lot of pressure on Heinz to drop out—and if he doesn't, I think he'll have a hard time raising much money.)

For all these reasons, Daily Kos Elections is changing its rating on AZ-02 from Tossup to Lean D.

FL-07: This is another one of those "nothing especially newsy" stories, but Jim Stratton's writeup of a recent debate in the FL-07 GOP primary offers some interesting background on both candidates in this incumbent-versus-incumbent matchup. The race has, as is so often the case, turned nastier of late, with freshman Sandy Adams sniping at veteran John Mica—and Mica doing his best to be dismissive of her. Polling (even Adams' own) has shown Mica well out in front, though, so this race seems more likely to end with a whimper rather than a bang.

FL-22: In her second ad, Democrat Kristin Jacobs reiterates a theme from her first, saying that "we keep sending the wrong kind of people" to Washington. Last time, I noted that her ad looked "like it was shot on Super 8"—as in, the classic film stock, not the motel chain. That was just my way of saying the footage looked deliberately aged, an effect I think is even more pronounced in this spot, which even features some artificial graininess. Is this an attempt by Jacobs to invoke some feelings of nostalgia among the older voters in the district by having her commercials invoke memories of old home movies?

IL-12: As expected, Major Gen. William Enyart, who just resigned his post as commander of the Illinois National Guard, submitted an application to the committee of local Democrats who are selecting a replacement for Brad Harriman. (Harriman unexpectedly dropped out of the race a couple of weeks ago.) The panel is accepting applications until Friday and says it hopes to make a decision by the end of the month. (Capitol Fax said that nine others had also filed as of Tuesday.) Frankly, time's a-wastin', and I don't see why it should take that long. The county chairmen responsible for this decision should huddle all weekend and make an announcement on Monday.

ME-01: It took a long time (the better part of a day!), but all of the votes in the ME-01 GOP primary have now apparently been counted, and state Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney has emerged with a 265-vote lead over Some Dude Patrick Calder. Despite Courtney's razor-thin edge of just 0.92%, Calder conceded and endorsed his opponent. Calder, a marine engineer who works on a cruise ship, had only one previous race under his belt: an unsuccessful state House race in 2010, so it's pretty amazing that he did this well, given that he raised less than $8K for his campaign. At the same time, it's not like Courtney put a lot of muscle into his bid, either—he only raised $22,000! That doesn't augur well for his chances against Dem Rep. Chellie Pingree this fall. (David Nir & James L)

NY-09: Rep. Yvette Clarke doesn't seem to face much of a threat from attorney Sylvia Kinard in the Democratic primary, but it's always notable when Barack Obama offers an endorsement to an incumbent lawmaker, which is exactly what he did on Wednesday. Perhaps what's more notable is that right next door in NY-13, where Rep. Charlie Rangel is in the reelection fight of his life, the POTUS is staying silent.

OK-02: Plumbing company owner Markwayne Mullin, who seems to have mastered the art of Beltway outreach better than his rivals, just dropped an internal of the GOP primary, showing him leading the field with 30 percent. The survey, from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, has state Rep. George Faught is at 15 and former state Rep. Wayne Pettigrew trails with just 7, while 34 percent are undecided. Note that Oklahoma is a runoff state, so Mullin would have to do a fair bit better to avoid a second round.

It's also worth pointing out that Mullin didn't include general election matchups, which has to make you wonder whether Democratic chances of holding this deep-red open seat are perhaps better than you might otherwise imagine. (This is proverbial "ancestrally Democratic" turf, after all.) And speaking of the Democrats, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Rob Wallace was just endorsed by Julie Carson, the wife of ex-Rep. Brad Carson, who held this seat before Dan Boren, its current occupant. (Brad Carson can't get involved because he's working for the Army.) Wallace, who faces seed company owner Wayne Herriman in the primary, also has the backing of ex-Gov. Brad Henry.

SC-07: If you were following Tuesday night's election liveblog, you know that a very, very strange thing happened in the South Carolina Democratic primary in the 7th Congressional District. At around 9:40 PM ET, the AP called a runoff between Gloria Tinubu, who at the time had just under 49 percent of the vote and was not going to be able to clear the 50% mark, and Preston Brittain, who was at about 36 percent. Even though Ted Vick had dropped out a few weeks earlier (after his arrest on drunken driving and weapons charges), he nevertheless received a not-immaterial 8 percent of the vote—enough to send Brittain and Tinubu to a runoff, at least.

Then, sometime after 11 o'clock, things got really weird. The South Carolina Election Commission declared that votes for Vick simply didn't count. It's not clear whether the elections board was tallying them to begin with, but the AP certainly was—and after the commission's instruction came down from on high, the AP literally just erased the line in their data feed that listed Vick's votes. As a consequence, Tinubu appeared to move about the 50 percent threshold for avoiding a runoff, since Vick's votes were no longer part of the denominator.

This was a pretty insane occurrence, and a hurried review of South Carolina election law didn't seem to offer any provision which allowed the elections board to make this move. If anything, it looked like they might be forbidden from doing so. South Carolina Democrats aren't happy about this turn of events, especially since most of the establishment players are backing Brittain. On Wednesday morning, they put out a statement:

The South Carolina Democratic Party cares about the voters in South Carolina and we care about their right to vote. Yesterday, in the 7th Congressional District, over 2,300 people voted for a candidate that canceled his campaign but still remained on the ballot. South Carolina code of law 7-17-610 states that "...there are more persons seeking nomination than there are offices, the majority shall be ascertained by dividing the total vote cast for all candidates by the number of positions to be filled, and by dividing the result by two."

Based on the names that appeared on the ballot, no candidate received 50% + 1 of the votes cast in the June 12 primary, thus a run-off is required. The Democratic Party does not want to disenfranchise any voter in South Carolina and by not counting the votes for Ted Vick, you are not counting the votes for over 2,300 people. This is something the Republican Party would condone but not the Democratic Party. Every vote counts.

State Democratic chair Dick Harpootlian, no stranger to litigation, told local media outfit SCNow.com that "the Democratic party had contacted the commission and if the mistake was not corrected the party would be prepared to take legal action." The commission now says it's consulting the state attorney general and expects to have an answer Friday. However, the AG, Alan Wilson, is a Republican, and the GOP would prefer to face Tinubu, so we'll see how legit his advice is.

Meanwhile, Brittain is insisting a runoff will take place, while Tinubu predictably says that counting Vick's votes "is ridiculous." Time is short, though, as South Carolina's runoff is scheduled to proceed in just two weeks, on June 26. Needless to say, we'll keep you posted on any further developments here.

TN-03: Republican freshman Chuck Fleischman, who faces a competitive primary, is up with a biographical spot in which he talks about his mother's death from cancer when he was a boy.

Grab Bag:

Candidate Filings: We've been a bit preoccupied with all sorts of stuff here at Daily Kos Elections lately—primaries, recalls, race ratings, what have you—so it's been a while since we've rounded up official candidate filing lists. But here are links for all of the states where filing has closed since June 1:

Alaska | Connecticut | Florida | Hawaii (PDF) | Kansas | Minnesota | Wisconsin | Wyoming (PDF)

Unfortunately, Massachusetts (where filing has also closed) won't post a list for another couple of weeks. It's also worth pointing out that filing is still open in just five more states: Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Delaware and Louisiana. (And in VT and NH, filing closes this week.)

Crossroads: Both of Karl Rove's Crossroads organizations—American Crossroads, which is a so-called "527" committee, and Crossroads GPS, their 501(c)(4) non-profit "social welfare" arm—are launching new ads attacking Democratic Senate candidates. There are six on total (three apiece for each group), with the buys reportedly adding up to $4.6 million. American Crossroads is up in Nebraska (going after Bob Kerrey), Virginia (Tim Kaine) and Nevada (Shelley Berkley), while Crossroads GPS is airing spots in North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp), Ohio (Sherrod Brown) and Missouri (Claire McCaskill). (The latter batch are fake "issue" ads—you know, the kind which conclude with, "Call Sen. So-and-so and tell her to stop being such a stinky libruhl!" That's how GPS gets away with the "non-profit" dodge.) The Hill has helpfully compiled all of the ads here.

House: Is Rep. Patrick McHenry hoping to fashion himself into the House counterpart of Sen. Jim DeMint? DeMint spends a lot of time trying to play wingnut kingmaker by meddling in various contested Republican primaries to help ensure only the craziest, most extreme candidates emerge with the GOP nomination, and his main tool is his Senate Conservatives Fund. McHenry, meanwhile, has his own "House Conservatives Fund," which has just issued its first round of endorsements. But McHenry's going about things rather differently, seeing as he's backing candidates who've already won or don't face primaries, so perhaps the only thing he has in common with DeMint is his organization's name. Anyhow, you can find the full list at the link.

Nevada: As you may know, Nevada law has an unusual provision which specifies that on all statewide ballots, voters are given the option to vote for "none of these candidates" (also known as a "none of the above" or "NOTA" option). However, it's purely a protest vote: Even if NOTA wins a plurality or majority, those votes are simply discarded and the candidate with the next-highest total is declared the winner. Perhaps because of this, NOTA "victories" have been extremely rare, though it did achieve a plurality in a couple of Republican primaries in the late 1970s.

But a new lawsuit filed by some local Republicans is seeking to overturn the system anyway, arguing that throwing out the NOTA votes constitutes disenfranchisement. (Oddly, this has a bit of an echo with what's going on in the SC-07 Democratic primary.) Local reporter Jon Ralston isn't sure why the GOP is pushing this suit, but he speculates that perhaps they're worried that NOTA will hurt Mitt Romney and Dean Heller in the presidential and senate races more than it'll hurt Barack Obama and Shelley Berkley. In any event, you can read the complaint here (PDF).

NRCC: The NRCC just became the last of the big four federal campaign committees to make a large fall airtime reservation, booking $18.2 million worth of airtime covering 27 congressional districts. Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz has a detailed breakdown of the reservations at the link.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NJ: Obama up 56-33 (13+ / 0-)

    Rutgers-Eagleton.  1065 RVs.

    http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:03:58 AM PDT

  •  538 Model (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    citizenx, Andrew C White

    Interesting quirk today in the Nate Silver model. In the Nov. 6 Forecast, Obama is projected to win Ohio narrowly, whereas in the Nowcast Romney would win it narrowly but with some wiggle room.

    Interesting. This is the second day in a row that the Nowcast has shown a steep drop in Obama's chances were the election held today, but the Forecast version has largely remained stable since the introduction of the model.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

    The Rasmussen Wisconsin poll has been added to the model, but this has only just barely budged the numbers towards Romney in both the Nowcast and Forecast.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:27:17 AM PDT

  •  Jobless claims 386,000 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    Up 6000 from a revised 380,000 last week.

    http://www.cnbc.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:52:34 AM PDT

    •  They've lost all prescience as far as I can tell (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, itskevin

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 06:44:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Still prescient in general trend, which is all... (0+ / 0-)

        ...that should be expected in the first place.

        Weekly claims have slowly trended upward in recent months, consistent with the past 3 BLS jobs reports.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:30:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They were down in May (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Compared to April yet the jobs report was worse. They were at four-year lows in March when the negative jobs trend began.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:39:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But the 3-month trend is consistent (0+ / 0-)

            Like I said, "general" trend is consistent.  On a monthly basis, they can track a little differently.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:03:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Jobless claims rose this week (0+ / 0-)

    Up 6k to 386k, and last weeks figures were revised up from 377k to 380k

    http://www.cnbc.com/...

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:57:10 AM PDT

  •  IN-09: Lee Hamilton has given his strong (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, Odysseus

    endorsement to Shelli Yoder. Not surprising, but nice to see that her campaign isn't being abandoned.

    http://app.e2ma.net/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 06:09:53 AM PDT

  •  Add AZ-08/02 (0+ / 0-)

         Here's more on that race from this morning's Arizona Daily Star.

    The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

    by Azazello on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 06:35:12 AM PDT

  •  RAss WI Sen: Thompson up by 16 over Baldwin (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    Neumann. by 2.

    Oh, and Wallker approval rating 99%.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 06:37:28 AM PDT

  •  ras is whoring for Thompson (8+ / 0-)

    The GOP knows Baldwin can probably easily beat anyone else and once I think she debates Thompson she will get better known. seriously why would someone want to elect a 70 year old rookie senator  and the only reason he wants to be a senator is he thinks he can get elected.

    •  That's what I think too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      Ras seems to be an establishment Republican, and wants Thompson to win the primary rather than getting Lugared. These are some very unusual numbers...

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:12:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  this is pure name recognition (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zornorph, bear83

    Everyone knows Thompson in Wi and as evidenced in the polling against the lesser known candidates it pretty even. I would be more interested   if Thompson is beatable in a primary.
    Seems to me no democratic senate candidate would do much worse than Obama in WI in the general.

    •  More like pure Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      I don't think anybody doubts Thompson is there strongest nominee. If you discount the PPP numbers taken in the midst of recall fever (that found zero electability gap) then the February Marquette poll found him leading by 6 while Baldwin lead Neumann by 4. Incidentally, that was the week before Ras showed Thompson up 14.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:04:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I really wish Herb Kohl had run for governor (7+ / 0-)

    against Walker.  He's probably the only Dem who could have won.  Then he could have just appointed Baldwin to fill out the rest of his term.

    Despite those early polls showing Feingold doing well against Walker I think he would have lost, but by a narrower margin than Barrett.

    Also, the we were outspent 10:1!!! myth is getting annoying.  I'm all for curbing the influence of corporate interests in elections, but people need to get their facts straight.

    At least that Ras poll is beyond ridiculous.  Baldwin probably wins 51-49 or so in November even if accurate polls were showing Thompson leading 45-40 today.

  •  Could this be an inkling of a hopeful trend? (13+ / 0-)

    And I don't mean just for Democrats.

    As a conservative independent voter, one reason I come to DK is that so many Republicans/conservatives are just plain NUTS.

    As badly as I fit in here, I fear places like RedState et al would be even worse, even though I am philosophically aligned with those places.

    Why?

    /rant mode on

    The Nevada race hits on two of them: the environment and let bygones be the fucking bloody hell bygones, no matter what sort of consenting adults they find attractive.

    Last I looked, we conservatives have children, too.  Nice to keep a decent country for them instead of turning ourselves into a colony to China and British Petroleum, suitable only for plundering and leaving as an empty husk.

    And I thought it was the very height of conservative reverence for liberty to not care what the hell somebody else is doing so long as they aren't hurting others.  People should be the same in the eyes of the law -- or as close as we can reasonably make that.  

    Liberty for all. That's pure conservative dogma.  What's the point of saying it if you're not going to to try living it?

    /rant mode off

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:17:56 AM PDT

    •  Nice Rant (5+ / 0-)

      Exactly the reason I became a democrat. I always believed in the maximum amount of personal liberty as long as it isn't at the expense of other's liberty. A good chunk of the GOP used to represent that. They don't anymore.

      When they became a mixed bag of corporatists, religious extremists, and anti-government fanatics I left them for good.

      Your rant hit on an idea that you don't hear very often.

      •  Can't quite make the switch, because Democrats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zornorph

        drive me batty with their love for all things government, so I'm stuck in independent land.

        Which is OK.
        George Washington would approve.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:08:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I got (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, dinotrac, jncca

      I got banned from Red State for writing a post supporting Speaker Boehner when he was having issues with a more right wing house member from his state. :)

      Language professors HATE me!

      by Zornorph on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:39:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hilarious. By contrast, I've been here at DK (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zornorph, fearlessfred14

        since 2007.

        I've been called a troll more times than I can count.

        Been warned once (exactly) by Meteor Blades for something I can't recall.

        Been asked 3.817 gazillion times what the hell I'm doing on a Democratic site (I am in an obvious minority for having actually read the FAQ, it would seem).

        Been told I should stop letting Fox News tell me what to think almost as many times as that (I don't have cable.  The only time I even see Fox News is when I'm out someplace that has it on).

        And  I'm still here.  Nobody has banned me.  

        I abide by the rules -- I don't advocate for candidates, I try to avoid intentional hatefulness, and truly appreciate the low tolerance for conspiracy nuts.  None of which keep me from speaking my mind on anything that matters.

        For all the jokes about Democratic Thought Police (and I make them all the time), this place has more respect for free discourse than *ahem* some others.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:43:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hey Occupy... (4+ / 0-)

    This is how you do it...attack middle of the roaders and fence sitters that are in strong blue districts...

  •  Well, no decision on the ACA today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, bythesea

    Which means Monday is next the date to watch.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:33:38 AM PDT

    •  All going down I think (0+ / 0-)

      When it rains it pours.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:39:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wouldn't be too sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        As for the date, my money's on June 25.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:40:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They'll keep the mandate (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          but declare all the benefits unconstitutional.

          5-4 with "outrageous and unconscionable" dissent from Ginsberg.

          The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

          by raboof on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:50:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If They Overturn The Mandate...... (0+ / 0-)

            ....and given that the bill was passed on budget reconciliation, couldn't they really turn the knife on Obama by mandating that he and Congress immediately agree upon a funding mechanism that "is constitutional"?  Which would thereby have the same function as killing the bill since the Republicans wouldn't go along with any funding  mechanism.  If that's possible to do, I suspect they'll go that route, which would make them look slightly less "activist" than if they threw the whole bill out, but merely passed the buck to their allies in Congress.

  •  Nevada - State Senate (0+ / 0-)

    A web search suggests that John lee was not just Some Dude, he was the minority whip, and therefore probably had a footprint of some larger size in legislation.

    We can have change for the better.

    by phillies on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:34:08 AM PDT

  •  Second-guessing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    billlaurelMD, DCCyclone, itskevin

    I missed this discussion but it seems to me the people quoted here are all the usual third-way suspects.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    The main issue I have about messaging is the idea Obama shouldn't talk about positives. I'm sorry, but the response to that from the other side is just too easy. "He can't run on his record, changing the subject, what has been doing the last four years, etc."

    Most people, including some of these naysayers believe an incumbent running for re-election is mostly a referendum on his term. I simply don't see, unless current economic trends have a remarkable turnaround, how he can win without pointing out success while at the same time talking about how much more needs to be done.

    Same goes for attacking Romney. Leave it to surrogates? Yeah, because they are so reliable! I wish the Bushies had run like they suggest in 2004. And Clinton attacked Dole at this point in 1996 to make him an unacceptable alternative so these people are re-writing history.

    That being said, all this talk about the campaign being in trouble has very little to do with what they are actually doing. He is in the position he is because of the state of the economy. Not all this minutiae. Similarly, the idea he "failed" at uniting the country is just laughable. He bent over backwards and is now reaping the "rewards" for that.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:38:31 AM PDT

    •  "Round-up the usual DLC concern trolls" (4+ / 0-)

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:44:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My own further take, after further thought...... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem

        One thing that I don't know I've said outright, but is worth saying outright, is that the odds are extremely slim that whatever critics say wasn't considered and discussed out loud months ago by the Obama campaign team.  That's nice Peter Hart did a focus group or two for media consumption......I bet OFA and before that the DNC did countless of them.  That's nice Carville and Greenberg do their Democracy Corps polls for public consumption......we know simply from the FEC filings that OFA has spent millions(!) on polling this year.

        If there are people out there (and there are...e.g., dudedad) who think somehow any critique being circulated in the political media is thoughtful and new, they are pretty far outside any understanding of campaigns.

        If James Carville has constructive criticism for Chicago, he can call them.  He is James Carville, they will take his call.  And no one needs to know the call ever happened.  Same goes for Stan Greenberg and Peter Hart.

        Otherwise, to what end are people, especially anonymous Democratic "sources," airing their grievances in the media?  Because that's what it is:  airing their grievances.  Personal grievances, is how it looks.

        The only things that have happened in recent months that matter to voters and have potential to affect the November outcome are the monthly jobs/unemployment reports, other news headlines on the economy, and campaign ads on TV.  Nothing else discussed on cable news channels or on the internet has mattered even slightly.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:59:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Doug Schoen speaks for dudedad (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, sapelcovits

          Almost word for word.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:43:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably also Pat Caddell (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, bumiputera

            who so often works and writes with Schoen.  Caddell, for those who don't know, is the supposed genius who in the Carter White House largely came up with the "malaise" concept, and later consulted Coca-Cola on marketing New Coke.  (If you're under 30 or so, you probably don't remember that one.)

            OTOH, to give some credit where it's due, he was a consultant to the TV show the West Wing and some successful movies.

            36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 10:30:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Here is a dose of reality, with a plug for... (0+ / 0-)

      ...the Los Angeles Times generally for campaign reporting this year:  http://www.latimes.com/...

      I've been meaning for awhile to plug LAT because they've been refreshing several times, from what I've read.

      Here's an excellent primer on polling:  http://articles.latimes.com/...

      I post that because it's better for people who already understand polling somewhat; most primers I've seen try to explain polling to people who don't know anything at all, and it's basics that would bore any regular DKE commenter.  But that LAT piece educates and informs on things that most campaign reporters screw up!

      There is plenty of other material, but ultimately I've come to like the LA Times stuff greatly.  I put them up there with the NBC political team in the quality of their analysis.

      I can't help but think that being on the Left Coast helps their perspective.  They're not in the Acela Corridor fishbowl, and therefore can see more clearly how so much of what gets discussed in daily and weekly news cycles is just inconsequential noise.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 08:49:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not so bad (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Though we know from experience the "undecided voters break to the challenger" assumption isn't always true. I find it interesting Greenberg calls them 47% and 45% candidates. My current national average of all major polls is Obama 46-44, back to where it was stuck for months before the economy and the Republican primaries kicked into gear shifting things to the president.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:39:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  SWEET! (0+ / 0-)

    Congratulations to Rev. Patricia Spearman, lesbian, African American, beautiful!

    Yay!!

  •  These are the kinds of stories I like (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    to read. I don't believe in party "purity" but I do like to read about Democrats taking their own to task and sending "better" Democrats to office.

    Hopefully that will turn to have been the case here.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 10:06:56 AM PDT

  •  Good News (0+ / 0-)

    The President up 1 in Michigan

    •  Writeup available (0+ / 0-)

      The writeup is at http://www.scribd.com/... .

      Several things look really weird in it including changing between whether Tea Party is a separate part or not between different questions. My favorite though is near the end and basically says

      "Our Respondent pool is 83% White, we expect in the general election the voting pool will be 74% white and our respondent pool is 9.32% black and we expect our voting pool to be 17% black, however we still expect the results to be accurage within 2.32% Margin of Error Factor."

      Really?

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