Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

AZ-02: It looks like the third time won't be a charm for Jesse Kelly: After losing Tuesday's special election to Democrat Ron Barber, Kelly's decided not to run again in the regular election in November. (You'll recall that Kelly also lost to then-Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2010.) That leaves retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally as the most likely Republican to take on Barber in the fall, though Some Dude Mark Koskiniemi is also in the race.

Meanwhile, state Rep. Matt Heinz, the only other Democrat to file for the primary in Arizona's redrawn 2nd CD, says he still plans to seek the seat, despite Barber's win in the AZ-08 special. Adds Heinz: "I don't think people are going to consider Ron a real incumbent." I consider him a real incumbent!


FL-Sen: Ex-Rep. Dave Weldon got into the GOP Senate primary very, very late in the game, but he's already threatening to derail Rep. Connie Mack's efforts to consolidate the conservative movement around him. Citizens United just endorsed Weldon and contributed $10K to him, which has to make you wonder whether other right-wing groups will follow suit. Meanwhile, Mack once again is trying to act like the undisputed front-runner, rejecting a Republican debate for a second time by saying he's only willing to debate Dem Sen. Bill Nelson. If Weldon and others continue to chip away at his candidacy, though, this kind of posturing will start looking weaker and weaker.

IN-Sen: Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly is rolling out his first general election ad, a compare-and-contrast spot which hammers his GOP opponent, Richard Mourdock, with a quote that I'll bet Mourdock wishes he could un-say. In an MSNBC interview not long after his primary victory, Mourdock told Chris Matthews: "To me, the highlight of politics, frankly, is to inflict my opinion on someone else." Donnelly cites his own record of bipartisanship in response.

What's also interesting here is the roundabout way in which the ad's been financed. The buy is for a reported $250K, and the disclaimer at the very end of the spot says it was "Paid for by the Indiana Democratic Congressional Victory Committee." That's a fund operated by the state Democratic Party—but the money didn't come from them directly, either. Rather, the DSCC transferred a quarter mil into the committee's coffers so that they could air this spot. Why does all this matter? Politico's Alexander Burns explains:

A Democratic strategist claimed the Indiana Dems will be able to counter the heavy [$600K] Crossroads investment because they can buy airtime at a cheaper rate than an outside-spending group. The ads are "competitive with Crossroads GPS statewide and will actually be in heavier rotation in Indianapolis," the strategist said.
I really don't know how that's supposed to work, but I certainly hope that's true.

ME-Sen: Even though Democrats now have a nominee in the Maine Senate race, state Sen. Cynthia Dill, it's pretty unsurprising that the DSCC is doing its best to pretend like Dill doesn't exist. Politico tried to pin down DSCC chair Patty Murray, who would only say: "We are talking to a lot of people up in Maine and are making a determination on what we’re going to do. It's going to be a great state."

MT-Sen: GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg takes a different tack in his latest ad (his last couple of spots have mostly attacked Dem Sen. Jon Tester), trying to play up his bipartisan credentials. I gotta figure that when a Republican in a red state starts talking about how he "voted to protect the children's health insurance program from George Bush's cuts," he's starting to worry that he's not getting the kind of traction he'd hoped for.

Rehberg also blatantly apes a much funnier Tester spot where Tester tried to show he takes his Montana values to DC by lugging a suitcase full of home-grown beef back to Washington. Instead, Rehberg drives around the Capitol in a jeep with a vanity plate that reads "RNCHR MT." Is he trying to tell us that he wants a raunchier Montana? Because he's certainly not a rancher anymore, regardless of what his license plates might try to claim: He hasn't raised animals since 2009.

WI-Sen: Rasmussen Reports:

Tammy Baldwin (D): 36 (38), Tommy Thompson (R): 52 (50)

Tammy Baldwin (D): 43 (42), Mark Neumann (R): 45 (44)

Tammy Baldwin (D): 44 (45), Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 43 (41)

Tammy Baldwin (D): 42, Eric Hovde (R): 44


AR-Gov: Even though Arkansas's next gubernatorial election isn't until 2014, state AG Dustin McDaniel just formally filed to run for the seat, which will be open because Gov. Mike Beebe is term-limited. Another potential candidate, ex-LG Bill Halter (who also ran for Senate in 2010), criticized McDaniel, saying that launching a campaign for next cycle now "undermines candidates on the ballot this November." The linked article also mentions state Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter as another potential Democratic candidate; Lt. Gov. Mark Darr and Reps. Tim Griffin and Steve Womack are possibles on the GOP side.


AR-04: If you had hoped that perhaps state Sen. Gene Jeffress would update his 1870s-style campaign for something more 21st century (or even 20th) after winning the Democratic nomination, well, have I got a website to show you. An Arkansas News article reports that Jeffress and his AR-01 counterpart, prosecutor Scott Ellington, "both said they will need to raise more money for their campaigns and said they plan to spend money on television advertising, something they did not do in the primary." But will Jeffress actually do anything to make this happen?

Jeffress said today he has already begun talk to people about hosting some fundraisers, but he didn't think his campaign style would change significantly for the general election. He said meeting people and shaking their hand is the best way to win their vote.

"I guarantee you people want to see you out there, and we're going to run that same race all through until November," he said.

And I guarantee you that you cannot win a modern race with this approach. Sheesh, the same piece says that Jeffress doesn't even have any paid staff! What a joke.

CA-52: It's going to be really frustrating if, every two years, we have to wait over a week for California to finish counting its primary ballots... but at least it looks like we're finally all but done in one race, the 52nd Congressional District. With only about 13,500 votes remaining to be tallied, Scott Peters' lead over fellow Democrat Lori Saldaña grew from 645 on election night to 737 on Wednesday. In the face of that development, Saldaña more or less appeared to concede, but she didn't endorse Peters, who spent more than a million of his own money to earn the right to take on GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray this November.

TN-03: This ad from 25-year-old Republican Weston Wamp (notable only because his father, Zach Wamp, held this seat until a cycle ago) is just deeply... weird. I can't summarize it at all—it's a series of different images (John Wayne! moonshot! Bill Gates!) accompanied by a strange meditation on the meaning of freedom. I will say, though, that I was sure Wamp had hired some ridiculously deep-voiced announcer to narrate the ad. Instead, it turns out that the ridiculous deep voice is Wamp's own. (He doesn't sound that way when he's not trying.) Overcompensating much? The buy is reportedly for about $46K.

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: If you've never been to clear on the different varieties of dark-money groups—knowing your more run-of-the-mill Super PACs from the truly dark 501(c)(4) "social welfare" groups (who can operate without disclosing donors)—here's a primer from Mother Jones, including summaries of some of the biggest names.

More newsworthy, though, is a Los Angeles Times article detailing how these guys shuffle money around between each other to best spend it on political activity without triggering more onerous disclosure requirements. Case in point: A recent $500K transfer from Norm Coleman's 501(c)(4) American Action Network to Karl Rove's American Crossroads, a PAC which can spend more openly on political activity. (Remember that American Crossroads is different from its sibling Crossroads GPS, which, like AAN, is a 501(c)(4) that can cloak its contributors.) AAN spent tons of money on political advertising in the '10 cycle, but maybe they felt they were flying too close to the sun this time and are preferring to work more as a conduit now. (David Jarman)

Democracy Corps: At Daily Kos Elections we tend to focus on the quantitative aspects of political research... not because it's easier to summarize but usually because that's all that ever gets released. Here's a memo from Democracy Corps, though, that's worth reading the whole thing, because it goes into some remarkable detail about some of the qualitative research they've done recently through focus groups.

It's a few days old, and most of the attention it got when released was because of its "Dems are dooomed!" first few paragraphs that fits nicely into this week's overall Beltway media narrative, but it actually turns into an interesting read once you get past that. That's partly because it puts a human face on what poll respondents are actually feeling, and then at the end it offers a way forward, in terms of messaging that people are actually responding well to (which is the kind of messaging that a lot of netroots types probably would have been suggesting in the first place). Again, read the whole thing. (David Jarman)

Demographics: We've posted a few times on changes in the Jewish population in Brooklyn, and how that—counter-intuitively, since Jews have tended to be a strongly Democratic constituency—has made parts of the borough more conservative over the last decade, since most of the growth has been among ultra-Orthodox and/or Russian-speaking Jews. Well, now there's some actual polling research done on the subject by UJA-Federation (and independent polling is needed, since the Census Bureau doesn't poll on religion, leaving us mostly making assumptions about what's happening).

Indeed, they find New York City's Jewish population is growing again after years of decline, up to 1.1 million. They see increased secularization among non-Orthodox Jews but also that most of the population growth is coming among the Orthodox. 490K of that 1.1 million are now Orthodox, and 220K are Russian immigrants or their descendants (with much overlap between those two groups). The study finds large numbers of members of these groups living in poverty, and also that they're much likelier to adopt conservative positions—something that really only leapt onto the national stage with last year's NY-09 special election. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Why Jesse Kelly quit (14+ / 0-)
    If Kelly had continued, he likely would have faced an uphill battle in the newly drawn 2nd Congressional District for the two-year term. As a result of once-a-decade redistricting, the district does not contain areas where Kelly drew some of his strongest support, such as Marana, Saddlebrooke and Oro Valley, and the Republican voter advantage is virtually erased.

    The old 8th Congressional District was 36 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic, and 31 percent other.

    The new 2nd Congressional District is much more balanced: 34 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican and 31 percent independent/other. An analysis from TheArizona Republic of voting results shows that if the current map boundaries for the 2nd District had been in place in 2010, Giffords would have beaten Kelly by 13,821 votes instead of by 4,156.

    Read more:

  •  AZ-2 (6+ / 0-)

    Does Heinz really think people are going to vote for him over Barber despite his connects with Paul Babeau?


  •  Would Cynthia Dill be open to (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, econdem, bear83, stevenaxelrod

    campaigning in an idealistic way, but then dropping out at the  end and endorsing Angus King, who would hopefully promise to caucus with the Democrats? Think about it: instead of airing attack ads and other stuff like that, she spends her time introducing herself to the state, especially the less friendly parts, and takes her time, knowing it's like one very long "listening tour" as she builds up her name recognition for 2014 or beyond. (She's only 47, so she has PLENTY of time.) In exchange for her doing this, she gets the backing of the state Democratic party in 2014, or possibly in some other race. And even if Dill were to get 15 percent of the vote in the end, I imagine that a full throated endorsement of King would bring him over the hump, if not give him the chance to absolutely dominate whatever nut job the Republicans put up.

    What do you guys think?

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:44:40 AM PDT

    •  Dill (5+ / 0-)

      all the Democrats took a pledge to air no negative ads in the general election thankfully, but Dill will not be endorsing King. She is ambitious and fairly, but has few friends in the senate and none in Democratic leadership, living the life of a backbencher for the most part. The state party will not bend over for her, and she knows that, she sees this as her one real shot to move up and will be going all out. She was a significant underdog in the primary (establishment support went to Dunlap, and she got started later than Hinck) so it's a testament to her hard campaigning that she won. Fortunately she has raised very little money ($20K last quarter) so I doubt she will be playing spoiler, but she does have a fairly sizable staff and some fanatically loyal volunteers so she will be able to run a respectable campaign. I doubt there's anything that the state party would be willing to offer her that would entice her to drop out, she will stay in and pray like crazy King implodes.

      Additionally, I'm not sure national Democrats would want to be pushing state Democrats to make concessions to her to drop out and endorse King, as there are several benefits to her staying in and King is already above 50 in three way races so why bother? Namely, King actually might implode, he's obviously rusty and has done some pretty crazy crap (holding a press conference to denounce a parody twitter account) so we better keep a Dem in the race just in case. I don't think this is likely, but it is possible. Secondly, a great deal of King's appeal is his supposed independence, although it's clear to pundits and junkies he's a Democrat, so it might not be wise to so clearly point out to voters that he is a Democrat and give him some enthusiastic Dill endorsement (she's trying to run to his far left) as that might actually worsen his position in the election, especially if Summers is supported monetarily by Snowe in response (he already has his endorsement). I don't think Snowe will become involved beyond a verbal endorsement the way things are now, but if King appears a partisan Democrat she might be enticed to help out the Republican. So it return for the virtually non-existent upside when King already looks like a lock? Not worth it.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:18:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  See, the thing is, I had (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, stevenaxelrod

        a nice little thought there, and you had to ruin it by injecting facts into the discussion. Thanks a lot!

        Seriously now, thanks for this information. I didn't know any of it.

        On a kind of related now, it makes me wonder whom the Democrats might support in 2014 or beyond? I don't know a whole lot about Maine politics, so perhaps there are more obvious contenders than I realize. Are there?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:38:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  2014 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          If you're talking about the gubernatorial election, after the 2010 disaster Dems plan to back Cutler. There was some talk of him running as a Dem but he seems intent on running as an Indie again but he will nonetheless have the party's indirect, wink wink, support (rather similar to what's happening with the senate election here actually).

          If Collins retires Pingree is obviously intent on moving up, Michaud seems surprisingly happy with the house so I think Pingree might win in a walk but there's an outside chance of a Pingree-Michaud death match for the nomination, certainly.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:02:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  If Weston Wamp is so deeply concerned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Zack from the SFV

    about our debt, I hope he's ready with a list of taxes he's prepared to increase, particularly on the very well off. If he's not, I hope he's ready to just shut the hell up.

    As for weird ads, nothing will ever top the unique strangeness of Mike Gravel tossing a rock into a lake after staring into the camera in 2008. When he created that ad, I wonder if he was thinking of Jeff Daniels in The Contender, who gave a legislator a leather bound copy of Don Quixote, saying "He'll wonder what the hell I meant by that for decades to come."

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:51:13 AM PDT

  •  It's frustrating that the poorest segment (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    of contemporary society turns out to be the most drawn to conservative ideology.  It reminds me of what Marx wrote about peasants in the Eighteenth Brumaire -- not that Marx got peasant conservatism completely right, but that he at least recognized the problem...

    Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
    ¡Boycott Arizona!

    by litho on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:04:38 AM PDT

    •  I tend to think of a lot of these people (0+ / 0-)

      as practicing liberalism on the down low--not all of them, just the ones who talk about freedom and big government but then accept all different forms of support.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:11:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Certainly if they're like the Hasids (0+ / 0-)

        in upstate communities like New Square and Kiryas Joel, they largely subsist on various welfare and food stamp programs.

        Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

        by milkbone on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:38:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  TN-03 - Chuck Fleischmann is the congresscritter (3+ / 0-)

    His main claim to fame is:

    "the “Stop Green Initiative Abuse Act of 2011” which would repeal the Department of Energy’s “Weatherization Assistance Program”. This program attempts to assist low-income families in lowering their energy bills by adding energy efficient caulking and insulation to homes."
    That's the type of mentality at work in Tennessee's 3rd District.
  •  More really bad journalism (7+ / 0-)

    Basically, "Hey, Wisconsin and Minnesota, you know, boarder each other. Maybe Republicans blew their chance to threaten Democrats there this cycle since they are doing pretty good in Wisconsin."

    It was long a fly-over state for presidential candidates - not worth a visit, since it voted reliably Democrat. After strong gains in 2010 midterm elections, though, conservatives thought they had a real chance to change that.

    Instead, the Republican Party finds itself divided and uninspired in Minnesota, a state that underscores the uphill battle Romney faces as he tries to rally conservatives in many parts of the country before the November presidential election.

    It's a far cry from neighboring Wisconsin, where earlier this month Republican Governor Scott Walker scored an important victory in a tough recall election launched by unions. That was seen as laying the groundwork for Romney to take a state that has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

    Walker's win also showed what it takes to unite today's fractious Republican Party, conservative insurgent Tea Party activists and deep-pocketed donors: a champion (Walker), a common cause (fiscal conservatism) and a common enemy (unions).

    But while conservatives have a common enemy in Democratic President Barack Obama and have accepted Romney as the Republican nominee, many do not yet see the former governor of Massachusetts as their champion.

    So the only reason Romney is down to Obama by double-digits is that he doesn't excite the conservative base in Minnesota.

    Now it's time to get in it, and be boring, or to quote my favorite Hemingway poem "Don’t worry Wolfie, ever. I’m all right and would not change for any ever time. We’ve taken losses and we’ve made great gains and nothing ever bores us when it starts. Not even someone else’s battle."

    First, this is not a political opinion piece, this is supposed to be reporting on the Presidential race. Which makes the fact the person speaking seems to have no idea about the political backgrounds of Wisconsin and Minnesota even starker. Wisconsin has traditionally been a swing state in the last 30 years, one with a small Democratic lean and many competitive races. On the whole, Minnesota has had more bases of Democratic support, and was, until the mid-1990s and a combination of exurban growth and shifting rural conservatism, a pretty safely Democratic state on a federal level, which had a tendency to frequently put in liberal Republicans as governor.

    I mean I'm lazy as hell, so lazy that this is just an overview, but at least I wouldn't write an article about stuff I didn't know anything about for Reuters (like say American fashion models).

    In 2010, Minnesota Republicans rode a wave of anger at President Obama's signature healthcare reform, taking the state House of Representatives and, for the first time since the early 1970s, the state Senate. They fell just short of electing a Republican governor.

    The new majority sparred often with Democratic Governor Mark Dayton over spending - as Republicans have with President Obama in Washington - forcing an unpopular three-week government shutdown in July 2011.

    Tea Party activists say Republicans have been too timid.

    Specifically singles out the Healthcare bill. Was that really it? Or was it you know, the broad combination of other issues and the poor economy? Again, the way the authors order that make it sound more like Republicans are unpopular as the result of a fragmented base. Which is total fooey in Minnesota, where the party is massively unpopular with independents and Democrats and many moderate Republicans. It also makes these sorts of implications while not informing readers that the liberal Democratic Governor blocking these conservative measures has 20-25+ point approval ratings in the state.
    Much like Wisconsin, Minnesota is a longtime Democratic-leaning state that swung sharply to the right in 2010 with help from Tea Party and other grassroots conservative activists. With a unified approach, a clear message and a solid candidate, political analysts say, Republicans might just have had a shot at taking Klobuchar's Senate seat, and possibly even turning the state red in November.
    What? What? What? What? Deshou ka? Was? Quoi?

    What unnamed political analysts? How are we using the word 'might' here, as in 'statistical possible even if grossly improbable'? I'm referring to Klobuchar here, who has consistently been one the popular Senators in their home state and had big leads over "Republican Jesus" (i.e. generic Republican), and bigger leads over all the major possibilities like Pawlenty and Coleman.

    At least they do mention this:

    The fraught convention selected Bills to face Klobuchar, a popular incumbent with $5.1 million on hand at a time when the state Republican Party is bankrupt.
    Which doesn't quite mention that it's not bankrupt, it's deeply in debt, being sued, and struggling to maintain a building to use as party headquarters.

    But hey, it's a nationally syndicated news article. It seems they exist to call a few random political scientists and party heads, fine some random voter anecdotes, and then dial the speculation a few degrees in favor of the non-incumbent party with a healthy dose of not knowing much about the states or races they are talking about, and boom, article finished, nice paycheck in the bank. If only I could make my living in such a way.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:30:50 AM PDT

    •  Aren't a lot of the more conservative areas (0+ / 0-)

      of Wisconsin also very pro-union, or is that just the very conservative Republican areas? I get that there are plenty of distinctions between public and private sector unions, and those in the Iron Range might be open to Walker-esque moves, but I would be surprised by that. My guess is, if Republicans try that, they make the job of taking back the legislature that much easier for the Democrats.

      And on that note, AndrewMN and/or OGGoldy can hopefully tell me if I am wrong, but weren't the Republican gains in the 2010 midterms a combination of the awful cycle and Dayton's way of approaching tax increases? Was it something else as well? In other words, wasn't it NOT some sort of shift in the ideology of the electorate?

      On another note, if you ever want a good laugh, just search through Brad DeLong's archives for journalism critiques. A lot of it is focused more on specifically conservative opinion writing, which he lumps with regular reporting, but it's still amusing. Two of my favorites are this and this, although pretty much anything where he bashes Don Luskin is funny.  

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:26:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There are patches here and there (0+ / 0-)

        Prison towns mainly, but by and large there aren't really a lot of conservative but pro labor areas of the state. That's why so few Republicans voted against Act 10.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:15:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good to know. Why did MN Republicans choose Act 10 (0+ / 0-)

          as a name? Or were you just talking about Wisconsin?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:03:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just WI (0+ / 0-)

            It was called Act 10 because it was the tenth bill signed into law this session.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:43:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  someone needs to lay off the coffee (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        You have quite the run on sentence structure there.

        But Minnesota has not shifted, and 2010 was a bad year for the DFL. But even in that bad year the DFL  was elected  to all 4 statewide elections on the ballot. The GOP cieling in the state truly is about 48% or so, and the 50% mark has not been crossed by any Republican for any statewide race since the Republican Revolution of 94.

        •  So the Reuters article was just bad? (0+ / 0-)

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:02:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The DFL Was Dramatically Overexposed..... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, ArkDem14 the purple and red parts of the state in 2010.  They also had a lot of dinosaur legislators who made for easy targets in a "sweep the bums out" election as 2010 was.  This made for a climate where Republicans eked out just about every 50.2-49.8 race in the state by consolidating strength in the purple and red areas.

        •  Exactly! They had so many narrow races (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          There were a full 16 out of the 25 house seats we lost that were within 5% and we're currently only down 6 seats from flipping that chamber.

          In the senate 6 out of the 16 seats we lost were within 5% and we only now need 4 seats to flip the chamber.

          The MN state house was by far the worst chamber in the country for us losing most or all of the tossups in 2010.

    •  "What" in Japanese is "nani?" or "e?" (0+ / 0-)

      that was amusing, though. :P

      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 12:59:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What is deshou ka then? (0+ / 0-)

        Today the Japanese students here in Germany had a Japanese culture party. I wanted  to try on the kimonos, but alas, they only picked girls for the demonstration, haha. So I had a few phrases stuck in my head.

        Anyway, dou itashimashite.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:52:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  deshou ka is an ending for questions (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          that's a crappy explanation, but when you're like quizzing someone or something, you might use can also just be polite...I'm really bad at explaining these things lol. But it can't stand by itself. Also if you ever do wear a kimono/yukata make sure to wear it left over right, or else it means you're dead (I've made that mistake before).

          Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 01:55:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ZOMBIE!! (0+ / 0-)

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 05:16:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  In deference to the very nice religious people... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...on Daily Kos I've been taking a holiday from drawing connections between religion and idiocy, but this snapshot of Brooklyn's Orthodox Jews is too delicious to ignore:

    The study finds large numbers of members of these groups living in poverty, and also that they're much likelier to adopt conservative positions

    Romney '12: Bully for America!

    by Rich in PA on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:33:24 AM PDT

  •  "Not a real incumbent"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    Well, Matty, aren't you quite the fucking charmer.

    Before you win, you have to fight. Come fight along with us at Texas Kaos.

    by boadicea on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:48:31 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen working his magic (0+ / 0-)

    He has a new Michigan poll coming out at 12. I am betting he has it tied!

    •  Go for the gusto (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, Paleo

      I'm betting Ras shows Romney up 5 with a 59% approval rating.  Ras will figure, in for a dime in for a dollar.  I mean we're setting narratives with a one-day, landline phone only, 4.5% margin of error, few minorities polled junk pile.  I'm telling you, Ras is a bandwagon poller.  He looks for places where he thinks that the Republicans may be gaining, and I don't doubt that Michigan is closer than it was two months ago, and then throws in one of the these one-day specials to set the narrative.

    •  Rasmussen doesn't do that (0+ / 0-)

      He goes extreme. If he had said Obama up 2 in Wisconsin it would still have had people chattering. Same thing in MO-Sen. Even if he showed McCaskill behind it would be something, but no, he goes double-digit blowout.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:12:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wouldn't surprise me if it shows a small (0+ / 0-)

      Obama lead.  Scotty's shown he's smart enough to be too blatant by throwing in a reasonable poll every now and then.  Especially after a string of Republcians polls.  But, who knows.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:18:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For AZ-02, bring on the next dude carrying an ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Azazello, Zack from the SFV

    ... assault weapon and wearing dark glasses, and we'll see how that plays in a district that lost several people and one good Congresswoman to gunfire.

    And by the way, Mr. Heinz, there's no difference between an "incumbent" and "a real incumbent." (There are staffers who've risen to seats in the House and Senate ... and they know the territory, too!)

    Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

    by TRPChicago on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:50:43 AM PDT

    •  The next dude will be a chick, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, Zornorph

           a female fighter jock, no less. This is gonna' be interesting.

      The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

      by Azazello on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:00:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In a redistricting year, there is (0+ / 0-)

      To all the people in the district who've never voted for Barber, he's not an incumbent. Also, how much constituent service can he realistically get in between now and November?

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:17:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Constituent service is most of a district office's (0+ / 0-)

        ... work.

        As her aide handling district operations, Ron Barber was not personally doing the all the grunt work of constituency care. Everyone will understand why he isn't as available as he once might have been.

        If anything, wouldn't that background - plus his presence and survival at that shopping center - speak even more favorably about his credentials to carry on?

        Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

        by TRPChicago on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:02:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Constituent Service (0+ / 0-)

          I didn't mean to suggest that Barber would be directly evaluated on the strength of his constituent service record. Just that when people talk of the electoral advantage incumbents have, it's usually that many people have voted for them in the past, and that many of them have been personally helped by his or her office. Barber won't have those advantages. Most people probably aren't going to connect him to his work in Giffords' office, because most people don't have such detailed knowledge of candidates' biographies, or how congressional offices operate.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:25:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Good points, all. I do agree that electability ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... is based on many things, and being elected to a very partial term is hardly the natural incumbency. (It is, of course, better than being defeated or not running for the partial.)

            But he can put his name on top of press releases and he can co-sponsor bills in Congress, call for attention to agency and administrative issues and show a continuity of office that the other candidates in AZ-2 can't.

            You're absolutely right: he needs visibility. Gifford's campaign organization and the local party apparatus needs to pitch in and help a lot, and the DNC needs to help with funding because the GOP will surely target the seat ... so to speak.

            Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

            by TRPChicago on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 01:16:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Here's something to energize the Hispanic base (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Azazello, itskevin, askew

    The Obama administration will stop deporting and begin giving work permits to younger illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children and have since led law-abiding lives. The election-year initiative addresses a top priority of a growing Latino electorate that has opposed administration deportation policies.
    The announcement is scheduled for 10 a Pacific time. Sounds like something that the President can do by executive order.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:19:00 AM PDT

  •  Obama basically enacts a mini-DREAM act by (7+ / 0-)

    executive fiat:

    This is HUGE!

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:20:54 AM PDT

    •  Boy, between this and (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, geoneb, sulthernao

      "whipping the blacks into a frenzy"* over the Trayvon Martin shooting, he's bound to win over the non-whites. I guess it helps that he will be busing people from Chicago into Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, and Missouri to stuff the ballot boxes for ACORN, or whatever it's being called now. Or something.

      *I actually heard this line at Easter. At that point, I was kind of speechless.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:29:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If it is as big as we hope (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, stevenaxelrod

      Then in about a month or so, we might start hearing "crickets" w/r/t Romney's chances in NV, and some pundits might be forced to move CO into the blue column.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:36:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It'll be quite interesting to see how (0+ / 0-)

      this moves the needle in a couple of states. States like Nevada, Colorado, and Florida are obvious ones to watch, but how this affects his chances in, say, Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Arizona (on both ends, specifically, because of SB1070) will also be key. If he's able to at least keep his head above water with his coalition of white voters, this could be a game changer.

      I know his path to 270 is wide, but in Florida in particular, this could really be key. If he locks up that state, then it's hard to see Romney winning, short of routing him everywhere else. Considering his entire margin of victory came from non-whites and that his standing with whites in the state might not change all that much, I could see this propelling him to victory.

      Specifically, if the racial break down is like it was in 2008, when it was 71/13/14/1/1, just a small improvement could seal the deal for him. If his performance is 38/95/70/65/65, which is a fairly big drop from his performance with whites in 2008, he'd still get 50.43 percent. (I know the Hispanic electorate needs to be considered specifically in regards to Cubans, but I am not sure I want to guess what that might be like.) Hell, if he just gets 40 percent of the white vote, he will win with 51.85 percent, more than he won by in 2008.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:53:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Democracy Corps (0+ / 0-)

    The focus groups they interviewed seem particularly designed to skew results against Dems. I present the following from the article:

    "With the economy faltering, we conducted fairly open-ended focus groups among white non-college-educated voters in Columbus, Ohio and college-educated suburban voters in suburban Philadelphia."

    So they talked to a group of whites-only in Ohio and college educated voters in suburban Philadelphia. Notice any missing groups in those two? That's right. Minorities.

    One group was white's only(why they'd focus a race specific group I can't say) and the other suburban and educated. Neither of these groups is likely to include Dems strongest support groups...Blacks, minorities, and seems to include young voters only if they're non-college( I don't expect alot of young voters living in the suburbs of Philly as that's pretty expensive for young people).

    In short, WHO you ask in a focus group is just as important as they answers they give back.

    •  Don't confuse (0+ / 0-)

      a poll with a focus group, either in terms of its goals or its methods. A poll attempts to be scientific in its methods (reproducible, verifiable, testable, etc.); a focus group is really just a snapshot of how a particular group of people reacts to something, a means of gathering anecdotes that help flesh out quantifiable data.

      In market research, especially when you're message-testing, there's usually no effort to make sure that a focus group is equally representative of the whole community. If you sell Widgets, your Widget focus group probably wouldn't include people who are already know they hate Widgets or people who are firmly in the Widget camp (which, to extend the metaphor to Obama's case, would probably include minorities). They're interested in how to sell Widgets to people who are on the fence about it and considering other options, such as Thingamabobs, but who are, in all likelihood, going to choose one or the other rather than deciding not to buy anything at all. (To extend the tortured metaphor again, that would be white suburban swing voters.)

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 02:15:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site