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On a day when virtually no new polling came in (thus, for the first time, there actually aren't any thoughts awaiting you just past the jump), leave it to the House of Ras to throw a curveball at us to close the week.

After their eye-popping, and yet somehow predictable, pro-Romney numbers in Iowa and Wisconsin over the past week, here come the Rassies with a Michigan poll.

A poll in which Barack Obama leads. Quite handily, in fact.

Go figure.

On to the (incredibly small set of) numbers:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (50-42)

Note: There was no downballot polling released today.

The Michigan numbers are particularly surprising, given that the two most recent polls in the state had the race essentially even, with an EPIC-MRA poll last week actually putting Romney in the lead (albeit very narrowly). President Obama easily carried Independent voters in the Ras poll (Obama +12), which seems a bit loftier than what we've seen even in most recent national polls. By way of contrast, our own Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll this week showed the president up eight points among unaffiliated voters.

Too good to be true? It remains to be seen. I was a bit skeptical about that EPIC-MRA poll, as their numbers all cycle long have seemed to run more favorably to team Romney than their compatriots (when looking at contemporaneous polls, that is). Once again, whether to one extreme or another, a Rasmussen poll screams out for confirming or contradictory evidence.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (22+ / 0-)

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:30:06 PM PDT

  •  The streak is alive (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat, Larsstephens

    No national lead for Romney outside of the daily trackers, in which the lead has flipped, since the Mason Dixon poll that will be 4 weeks old on Sunday.

    The lack of any national polling releases today keeps the streak going.

  •  The Wisconsin recall presented too juicy (11+ / 0-)

    of an opportunity for GOP polling outfits to issue favorable polls to drive narratives.  Rasmussen probably issued this poll in order to undermine the credibility of these other GOP polling/propaganda outfits and eliminate the competition (while issuing its own shock poll in Wisconsin).

    Having watched polling pretty closely over every election beginning in 1988, there is always a lot of bad polling in every election cycle.  Most pollsters get away with it by making late adjustments just prior to election day to align to the consensus average.  The GOP uses polls to drive news coverage and narrative.  That is part of their overall strategy (which has been successful to date) to control the mainstream media with respect to political news.

    Today was the day that Obama firmly broke the stream of bad news coverage since the May jobs report/WI recall and successfully turned scrutiny on to Romney both in terms of Romney's budget plans as well as his position on immigration.  The immigration policy change will probably deliver Florida into the Dem column and seal the deal out west and perhaps make Arizona competitive.  

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 05:45:36 PM PDT

    •  It certainly makes defending "home turf" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, Aunt Pat

      a high priority for the GOPervs.

      figure that when FL, NC and VA are competitive... the Old South ain't what it used to be.

    •  Immigration not a big issue in FL (0+ / 0-)

      Most FL Hispanics are Cuban or Puerto Rican. Both are already citizens. There are some Mexican/Central American, of course, but not a big number. In truth, you can't get much farther from the Mexican border than South Florida.

      Latino politics are weird. Cuban and Puerto Rican Americans are not thought of by Mexicans and Central Americans as fellow travelers, and the former look down on the latter. Florida may be the one state where Obama's announcement is a negative.

  •  Ras (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EcosseNJ, Supavash, blueonyx, kitebro

    Crazy to say, but the results of the Ras poll actually look about right, to me.  It shows a conventional tightening of from the earlier Marist poll that you'd expect from someone clinching the nomination.  I'd put the margin for Obama somewhere between the PPP number and this 8-point lead.  I honestly don't think the lead is anything less than 8 or anything more than 12, at the moment.  The statistical ties, though, are complete bullsh%t.  

    BTW, for pollsters not comfortable with pushing and thus getting large "undecided" numbers, I don't worry about that too much given that undecideds basically break Democratic in presidential elections here in the state.

  •  The Wisconsin Poll Was Taken Over (0+ / 0-)

    one day.  Would that make a big difference?

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:20:58 PM PDT

    •  Normally, It Might, But... (0+ / 0-)

      A lot of Rasmussen's polling comes from single day samples. Therefore, in their case, it is not dramatically different than their other stuff.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:45:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One day does not equal "wrong" (0+ / 0-)

      It equals "unreliable." Very different things. An unreliable poll can very easily be accurate. But it will show wild swings and you can never trust any one result.

  •  when some poll is favorable (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    it looks good, when it's not, the methodology is flawed. Rasmussen is horrible, unless it's got favorable results. Then it's right.

    •  It could still be understating Obama's support (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I think the Wisconsin poll is understating both him and Baldwin quite drastically, We Ask America wouldn't get a 5 point Obama lead if in fact Obama wasn't ahead by something more than that.

    •  What are you talking about? (4+ / 0-)

      Rasmussen, and any other poll, can be right if their results are confirmed by others.  But if its results are extraordinarily favorable, then it isn't necessarily right if nobody else says anything similar.

      The results criticized here were well out of line with other reliable polling, especially given Ras' noticeable pro-Republican house effect (which wasn't evident in the Michigan poll) and methodology questions (one day polls, few cell phones, sometimes odd questions about other issues, etc.)

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 07:35:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  nothing nothing (0+ / 0-)

        it's all in my head. Thank God Rasmussen finally got the methodology right and delivered the correct results of Obama leading. That's all we want from a poll - those correct results of Obama leading.

        •  Who said their methodology is right (0+ / 0-)

          It's still wrong. I think he possibly has a bigger lead in Michigan.

          •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

            I doubt it's any less than double digits. In any case, see my comment above. No Rasmussen polls is ipso facto wrong. It IS, however, definitely unreliable. The next time he polls MI he'll likely be somewhere completely different. His methodology is cheap, lazy, and unprofessional, and as a result his numbers are all over the damn place. On top of that, he likely usually releases only when he likes the results.

            It's not rocket science.

        •  Broken clock (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I've shown several times that about 75% of the time Rasmussen's final polls in both 2008 and 2010 were too favorable to Republicans than reality. Obviously that leaves 25% where his numbers were either accurate or even leaned Democratic. What this allows us to do is to say with confidence that if even Rasmussen shows a good result then it must be true.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 06:36:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I like your handle (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It fits.

    •  No (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      We are consistent. We say so when polls have too favorable demographic crosstabs. The latest PPP national polls and the recent Marist poll of Florida for example.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 06:39:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No Ras is always skewed. (0+ / 0-)

      When it shows a Dem 2 points ahead, you can be sure that that Dem is 7 points ahead.

      Romney - 2012 - He's A Trooper!

      by kitebro on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 06:57:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's totally unfair (0+ / 0-)

      We'd be calling bullshit just as loudly if we got polls showing Obama in striking distance in, say, Oklahoma.

  •  About this polling, I am not so sure it is what (0+ / 0-)

    it is cracked up to be. First of all, there are few of these polls that I trust the result. We all know it depends on what question is asked, and we also know both the G.O.P. and the Democrats have reasons to show high and low poll numbers.
    Unless they show a really big gap, I don't think I trust them at all, a point here or there, not so much.

  •  This Ra-Ra-Razzmusen MI poll might finally (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    convince to return Mich to blue again... so far zilcho, still pinky red, pff...

  •  CA- Prop 29 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wildthumb, SoCalLiberal

    I've been watching the absentees/ provisional vote counts every day and today, for the first time, the gap between the Yes's and No's fell below 20,000 votes (in fact, it's just above 17,000). It's been going back and forth between 30,000 and 50,000 every few days.

    Today's count must have been more Democratic leaning because I noticed that Feinstein's vote total went from 49.2% yesterday to 49.5% today.

    We'll have to wait until more votes are counted to see if this indicates a trend or not.

  •  Rasmussen has no credibility (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Supavash

    It serves no point to even consider them when doing polling analysis.  

  •  Romney says that Obama's playing politics (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    on immigration.

    Somebody call the Wambulance!

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:37:43 PM PDT

  •  Maybe Romney is trailing badly in Michigan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    because its citizens don't agree with his statement that Michigan's trees are the right height.  More likely, though, they well remember what he said about the auto bailout, or since he went to high school there and is personally known by many Michigan citizens, they regard him as a total douche.

  •  HuffPost (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    did a great poll analysis today on the wild swings in Michigan.

    Michigan Polls: Barack Obama Leads By Widely Varying Margins

    Some facts:

    In the case of the Baydoun/Foster poll, the low response rate helped create a skew in the completed interviews, which "skewed significantly higher" among older voters, with 46 percent age 65 or older. Baydoun/Foster opted against weighting their sample by age.

    The age distribution reported by the other automated pollsters, PPP and Rasmussen, included less than half as many voters age 65 or older (20 percent and 21 percent respectively). Both typically weight their completed interviews by age. PPP also reported 14 percent in the age 18-to-29 category, compared with just 4 percent on the Baydoun/Foster poll.

    These differences have consequences, since both of the automated surveys showed Romney doing far better among older voters. The former Massachusetts governor leads by eight points among Michigan voters over 65 on the PPP survey (50 percent to 42 percent) and by seven points on the Rasmussen survey (51 percent to 44 percent). Subgroup tabulations were not available as of this writing for the Baydoun/Foster survey, but it is likely that they would have shown Obama with a larger lead had the survey been weighted so that it had an age composition that resembled the other automated surveys.

    Although these demographic composition statistics are critical to assessing the results, the report on the fourth poll from EPIC/MRA included no information about the age, gender or race.

    Arizona: Remember the good old days, when we were just known as the Grand Canyon State?

    by AZ RedWingsFan on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 08:55:36 PM PDT

    •  Did Baydoun-Foster contact cellphones? (0+ / 0-)

      Regardless, it seems to me that older voters would be most likely to be willing to spend time in the evening answering questions from a pollster, and this was supposedly conducted over just one two hour period Tuesday evening.  (Personally, if they were polling in Maryland I'd have been at martial arts/kickboxing class at that time and so wouldn't have responded.)

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:07:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  According to their crosstabs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It wasn't clear, but they readily admit they had a problem contacting a representative sample of younger voters.


        Our study skewed significantly higher with voter cluster of persons over the age of 51.This sampling was 83.03% of all polling study respondents. Despite efforts to adjust thecall volume to move the weight of this group closer to the projected 59% weight that theywill have in the General election, we were not successful. Our data also skewedsignificantly lower among the voter cluster of persons ages 18 to 30. This cluster wasroughly 12 points lower than their projected November General turnout weight. Onechallenge could exist from the disconnect from younger respondents usingcommunication tools outside of traditional landline and cell phone. Despite the variance,

        we believe the overall polling study’s quality of pooling sample and reporting

        effectiveness will not be hampered. The potential exists for a higher weight of personsover the age of 51 in the 2012 November General election.


        Our aggregate respondent pool skewed slightly higher for female respondents. Ourpredictive voter behavior analysis model projects that typical Michigan Presidentialelection turnout is 54% female and 46% male. Our polling study results produced a59.59% female and 40.41% male respondent pool. Traditionally, this is the most sensitivequestion for respondents to answer and typically has the highest refusal rate of anydemographic question.


        Our aggregate respondent pool skewed higher for White voters then our predictive voterbehavior analysis model projects for the 2012 Michigan November General election. Ourrespondent pool was 83.58% white, while our predictive voter behavior analysis model

         projects that 74.5% of Michigan’s Presidential General election will be white. African

        American respondents were correspondently skewed lower than our predictive voterbehavior analysis model projects for the 2012 Michigan November General election. Ourrespondent pool was 9.32% African American, while our predictive voter behavior

        analysis model projects that 17.5% of Michigan’s Presidential General

        election will bewhite. In spite of these two variances, we believe the quality of the sample pool andquantifiable data derived is statistically accurate to the 2.32% margin of error factor/

        Arizona: Remember the good old days, when we were just known as the Grand Canyon State?

        by AZ RedWingsFan on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 09:26:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  HEY AZ (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AZ RedWingsFan

          I live in Michigan but my daughter and grandkids live in Phoenix.
          My son is in DC and was the only black kid he knew that LOVED the RedWings. It was weird I knew nothing about Hockey. So....Nice to meet you and thanks for providing the background on the Pollster. I work for "the phone company" and Michigan is one of our top cellphone markets. We treat landlines like dinosaurs.

          Obama's defining political trait is the belief that conciliatory rhetoric is a ruthless strategy

          by AAMOM on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 04:17:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's rhetorical skills (5+ / 0-)

    are almost mystical. The more he gets media time, the higher his ratings will go. He's kicking into campaign mode. He's warming up.

    His performance in office is distinct from his campaign skills. He's planning on a graduate buildup of emotional tone against Romney. He runs his campaign like a music composition constructed with a progression of themes, like symphony movements. We'll hear his rhetoric strengthen as the fall approaches. By then, he'll be speaking in front of very large crowds.

    •  That's funny (0+ / 0-)

      I like Obama a lot, but for some strange reason I've never thought he was a particularly good speech-maker. Never even caught a whiff of his "mystical rhetorical skills." I mean, he's fine, but nothing special. I thought Bill Clinton was much better.

  •  There were no thoughts after the (0+ / 0-)


    I was shocked.

  •  Steve (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    just wanna say I end my day with your Polling Reports. GOOD JOB. YAY.
    and I'm from Michigan..on the ground its Obama.

    Obama's defining political trait is the belief that conciliatory rhetoric is a ruthless strategy

    by AAMOM on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 04:09:29 AM PDT

  •  Obama Has Evidently Been the Target (0+ / 0-)

    of a barrage of negative SuperPac ads in Michigan.  To the extent this is not a Rasmussen fraud, it suggests limited efficacy for these ads.

    •  Nah (0+ / 0-)

      Those ads have been everywhere. There's not reason to think they'd be especially effective just in MI.

    •  There is no way... (0+ / 0-) a state in which Romeny basically told to drop dead, an editorial all of us (Republican, Democrat and otherwise) here remember, that what's happening in Michigan is anything beyond the kind of tightening your'd expect of a candidate who has finally sealed his party's nomination.

      The race simply isn't close in Michigan.  If the race is actually close in Michigan, at this moment, than Obama has already lost his re-election.

  •  I'm sick of polls (0+ / 0-)

    It seems few people actually vote for what they truly believe, but instead vote based on whichever political hack poll tells them to believe.
    If the last poll asked who has the bigger dick and Mittens was perceived to then the empty headed public would elect the dick that swelled most right before orgasm even if the dickee was impotent.

    •  To quote Harry Truman..... (0+ / 0-)

      There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 11:07:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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