In my new book -- Power Plays: Energy Options in the Age of Peak Oil -- I reviewed the energy policies of the last eight presidential administrations. I noted that a president's energy policies can only really be judged in the years after he leaves office, because energy projects take years to complete.
But I did note that under President Obama, U.S. oil production had increased for three years in a row. The reasons for that are certainly more complex than Obama having pro-oil energy policies, but it's a talking point that is likely to receive much airplay leading up to the election. (I also discussed this during a recent interview on the Alan Colmes Show).
Last week the 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy was released. I always look forward to the release, because despite the negative impression most people have of BP, their data represent the most comprehensive, publicly available database on energy consumption and production statistics. As I read through this year's report, a few things jumped out at me that I want to share.
For the 3rd year in a row, the U.S. had the strongest growth in oil production of all non-OPEC countries. 81% of US energy demand was supplied by domestic sources in 2012, which is up from the record low of 70% in 2005. At 7.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of production, the U.S. ranked behind only Saudi Arabia (11.1 million bpd) and the Russian Federation (10.3 million bpd).
EIA data also show an oil production increase for the 3rd year in a row, and a steady increase during 2012. What this means is that unless there is an unlikely collapse in domestic oil production, President Obama is on track to have the distinction as the first president since Lyndon B. Johnson to preside over 4 straight years of increasing U.S. oil production. (The reasons for that are discussed in more detail here).
The other important trend to note is on carbon dioxide emissions. Global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 3%, driven primarily by strong growth of coal consumption in Asia Pacific (up 8.4%). Again, this was another theme from my book; the growth in carbon dioxide emissions is being driven by a "hurricane" of development in developing regions. Global growth in carbon dioxide emissions occurred despite the fact that emissions dropped by nearly 1% in OECD countries, and by 1.8% in the U.S.
To put U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in perspective (and show why I believe this problem is largely beyond U.S. control), if you removed all U.S. emissions from the 2011 tally it would only take emissions back to 2003 levels. If Asia Pacific's emissions were removed, emissions would be at 1977 levels.
In 2011, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 17.7% of the world's total. The trend over the past decade has been a steady decline from 2000 levels, when the U.S. was responsible for 25% of the world's total. Some of the decline is because emissions in the U.S. have declined, but some is because overall emissions have grown.
Asia Pacific's emissions reached 45% of the world's total, which represents a steady increase from their 2000 share which was 32%. The region is on a trend to have 50% of the world's total carbon dioxide emissions by the end of the decade.
On the renewable energy front, strong gains were made across the board. Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was added at a whopping 73%, with triple digit increases in a dozen countries. Actual power produced by the sun increased by 86%, which is more than 50 times greater than the levels in 2000. However, to put that in perspective, 2011 electricity production from solar energy only represented 0.3% of the world's total electricity consumption.
Other renewables grew as well. Wind power capacity increased by 20.5%, and actual power produced by the wind increased by 26%. Wind power accounted for 2% of the world's total electricity production in 2011. Geothermal capacity increased by only 0.3%, but the actual amount of power generated by geothermal is unreported.
Biofuels grew by 10,000 bpd of oil equivalent (BOE), which amounted to an increase of 0.7% over 2010 data. This slow growth rate was largely influenced by Brazil's decline of 50,000 BOE, which represented a 15% decline from 2010. Cumulatively, biofuel production was equivalent to 1.5% of total global oil production.
Overall, the report paints an interesting picture of U.S. oil production trends, signals a very worrisome continuing trend for global carbon dioxide emissions, and shows continued strong global support for renewables.