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I've been lurking SSP and DKE since around 2009, and I thought I should doing some writing myself. Which means this is my first diary on Daily Kos. Forgive me if I commit any faux pas or other assorted mistakes.

Anyways, it is only fitting that I write my first diary on my home state, California; after all, it is the place that I know best. Yes, even it it's been diaried to death already. I'll just contribute one more blow to the dead horse then.

Throughout this diary, I will be working with several rules of thumb that I believe are valid:

1. Since California is (was?) an ancestrally Republican state, the cusp for a district to turn from red to blue is around 51-52% Obama in NorCal. SoCal requires higher numbers: around 53-55% Obama. This is due to NorCal swing districts, especially those in the Sacramento area, being full of Bay Area transplants (and straight-ticket Dem voters), while SoCal swing districts tend to have more split ticket voters (see Ventura and Orange counties) and Latinos.

2. The above rule does not apply to Latino-majority districts. Due to high swings in Latino turnout, even a 60% Obama district can go Republican (see SD-12, currently occupied by GOP freshman Anthony Cannella).

3. The June 2012 elections results form a Democratic floor. Low-turnout elections tend to skew old, white, and Republican. A Republican in low 50s this election is as safe as a fly escaping a can of Raid (*cough*Lungren*cough*)

4. Whoever thought of putting a tobacco tax measure on this ballot is stupid and should be fired from their consulting firm for political malpractice.

Curious about the PVI numbers? They are straight from Cook, in case you're wondering. It took a while to find the correct Google formula to get them though. For example, to find the PVI for CA-01, type "CA-01 site:cookpolitical.com", and click on the Cook Political Report website with five numbers at the end (cookpolitical.com/node/10736, in this case). This also applies to other states and these numbers seem mostly correct, with exceptions in Michigan and Florida. I don't think it's illegal or devious; I'm only reading what Google search spits out.

And without further ado...

CA-01 - Inland northern California: Chico, Grass Valley, Redding
PVI: R+10
Incumbent: Wally Herger (R-Chico)
Candidates: Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale), Jim Reed (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

State Senator Doug LaMalfa can now simply wait until January to be sworn in barring any scandal.

CA-02 - North Coast: Eureka, Ukiah, San Rafael
PVI: D+19
Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma)
Candidates: Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael), Dan Roberts (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Why Dan Roberts and not Norman Solomon (D)? Because as of this writing, they are 1,200 votes apart with a bit over 30,000 votes outstanding, and he would have to win more than 14.2% (his current percentage) in order to catch up. The bulk of the remaining ballots are in Marin County (aka Huffman Country), where he is running behind that, so I just don't see that happening. Even if he does get second, Woolsey has already endorsed Huffman, so that takes quite a bit of wind out of Solomon's sails.

CA-03 - Sacramento Valley/Northern San Joaquin Delta: Yuba City, Davis, Fairfield
PVI: D+1
Incumbent: John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)
Candidates: John Garamendi (D), Kim Vann (R)
Rating: Likely Democratic

Garamendi's never-ending quest for a not-term-limited elected office has landed him in a district that he finally lives in. It looks like a swing district, but Garamendi garnered almost 53% of the vote in the June primary, mostly due to the college town of Davis. If he can pull that off now, especially during UC Davis's finals season, he can do it in November, especially during not-finals season.

CA-04 - Gold Country/Central Sierras: Roseville, South Lake Tahoe, Mariposa
PVI: R+10
Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R-Roseville or somewhere in California)
Candidates: Tom McClintock (R), Jack Uppal (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

Oh Tom McClintock, California's teabagger before teabagging came into vogue in conservative circles. He can continue doing exactly that for the foreseeable future here.

CA-05 - Wine Country: Napa, Vallejo, Martinez
PVI: D+18
Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena)
Candidates: Randy Loftin (R), Mike Thompson (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

No more redwoods and much less fog, but at least Thompson can keep his wine and congressional career.

CA-06 - Urban Sacramento: Sacramento, West Sacramento
PVI: D+13
Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento)
Candidates: Doris Matsui (D), Joseph McCray, Sr. (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

The state capital is as blue as ever.

CA-07 - Sacramento suburbs: Folsom, Rancho Cordova, Elk Grove
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
Candidates: Ami Bera (D), Dan Lungren (R)
Rating: Tossup

Ready for a rematch? This 51% Obama district is California's definition of tossup, and it really can go either way here. The assembly districts in this area (the old AD-05, AD-10, and AD-15), all 51% Obama, have all gone blue. Can Bera seal the deal? Or will Lungren live to fight another cycle?

CA-08 - Eastern Sierra/High Desert: Mammoth Lakes, Victorville, Yucaipa
PVI: R+11
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley), Greg Imus (R-Lake Arrowhead)
Rating: Safe Republican

At this point, it seems like these two will be advancing to November, but there is a chance that Phil Liberatore (R) overtakes Cook. I personally prefer Cook over Imus. Cook is a current assemblymember and is mostly unassuming. Imus is the former chief of staff to Tea Party-infused assemblymember Tim Donnelly, most recently known for trying to take a gun through airport security. Either way, this district is getting a Republican.

CA-09 - San Joaquin Delta: Antioch, Lodi, Stockton
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton)
Candidates: Ricky Gill (R), Jerry McNerney (D)
Rating: Likely Democratic

McNerney has fought and won in the swingiest California congressional district in the last decade, so this turf should be easier stuff for him. He does have to work for it though, but it should still go his way, the Gill hype notwithstanding.

CA-10 - Stanislaus: Modesto, Turlock, Tracy
PVI: R+5
Incumbent: Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
Candidates: Jeff Denham (R), Jose Hernandez (D)
Rating: Lean Republican

Denham got less than half of the vote in the primary. For someone who represented this area (save Tracy) in the state senate and/or in Congress (and is therefore a known quantity), that's weak sauce. However, I don't think this area will elect a Democrat just yet. This area is full of conservative Democrats that readily vote Republican, and I refer to the 2008 AD-26 election as evidence (in that closely watched election, quasi-moderate Republican Bill Berryhill won over conservative Democrat John Eisenhut by 4 points in a district that voted for Obama). Denham also won election twice to the state senate in an Obama district with an overwhelming Dem registration. Future trends will tend against Denham, but not now.

CA-11 - Contra Costa: Richmond, Walnut Creek, Concord
PVI: D+17
Incumbent: George Miller (D-Martinez)
Candidates: Virginia Fuller (R), George Miller (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Miller was nearly redistricted out and he gains more moderate Republican areas such as Walnut Creek and Danville, but he will live on and continue his good work in education issues.

CA-12 - San Francisco
PVI: D+35
Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco)
Candidates: John Dennis (R), Nancy Pelosi (D)
Rating: Safe Republican (/snark)

My home district. Oh yeah, I got to shake her hand on my birthday. Take that.

CA-13 - Central East Bay: Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro
PVI: D+37
Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)
Candidates: Barbara Lee (D), Marilyn Singleton (NPP)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Berzerkeley acts like itself (I went to Cal, so I get to say that). Blue district is blue.

CA-14 - San Francisco Peninsula: Daly City, San Mateo, Redwood City
PVI: D+23
Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough)
Candidates: Debbie Bacigalupi (R), Jackie Speier (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Insert unneeded comment here.

CA-15 - Southern East Bay: Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon
PVI: D+15
Incumbent: Pete Stark (D-Fremont)
Candidates: Pete Stark (D), Eric Swalwell (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

When your first impression on half of your new district is one of blithering senility, then it's not surprising that your opponent is nipping at your heels. Swalwell is also from Dublin, in the more moderate Tri-Valley that Stark never represented, so he might actually have the advantage here. Stark has the ability to pull this through one last time, but I'm not sure if Obama, Kucinich, and the Democratic establishment can really save him from himself.

CA-16 - Central Central Valley (sic): Merced, Madera, Fresno
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
Candidates: Jim Costa (D), Brian Whelan (R)
Rating: Likely Democratic

Costa's Fresno base got detached from Kings and Kern counties and latched onto Merced and Madera. Costa should win this one as long as he isn't caught napping like last time.

CA-17 - Central, Asian Silicon Valley: Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale
PVI: D+18
Incumbent: Mike Honda (D-Campbell)
Candidates: Mike Honda (D), Evelyn Li (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Home of your famous companies such as Yahoo! (it still exists?) and Apple. Apples taste better blue anyway.

CA-18 - Northern, white Silicon Valley: Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Saratoga
PVI: D+18
Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton)
Candidates: Dave Chapman (R), Anna Eshoo (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Facebook (located in Menlo Park and Palo Alto) is blue due to Mark Zuckerberg's red-green colorblindness. Eshoo will ensure that he won't be seeing any political red outside his window anytime soon.

CA-19 - Southern, Latino Silicon Valley: San Jose, Morgan Hill, Gilroy
PVI: D+15
Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose)
Candidates: Zoe Lofgren (D), Robert Murray (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

No ado about nothing.

CA-20 - Monterey Bay: Santa Cruz, Salinas, Monterey
PVI: D+19
Incumbent: Sam Farr (D-Carmel)
Candidates: Sam Farr (D), Jeff Taylor (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

The Monterey Bay Aquarium is interesting. This congressional race isn't.

CA-21 - Southwestern Central Valley: Hanford, Wasco, Bakersfield
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: none
Candidates: David Valadao (R-Hanford), John Hernandez (D-Fresno)
Rating: Lean Republican

Valadao's performance during the primary is too high to consider this a tossup, and Hernandez is too second-tier to give Valadao a challenge. This area is heavily dependent on Latino turnout, and I don't see it materializing this time around. Former state senator Dean Florez might have given us a chance, but that's assuming former assemblywoman Nicole Parra (the two of them have a sometimes-self-destructive feud) doesn't sabotage his candidacy.

CA-22 - South-central Central Valley: Clovis, Visalia, Tulare
PVI: R+12
Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R-Tulare)
Candidates: Otto Lee (D), Devin Nunes (R)
Rating: Safe Republican

It's red. Very very red.

CA-23 - Southern Central Valley: Bakersfield, Porterville, Lancaster
PVI: R+18
Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)
Candidates: Kevin McCarthy (R), Terry Phillips (NPP)
Rating: Safe Republican

This most Republican congressional district in California clocks in at 36% Obama.

CA-24 - Southern Central Coast: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
Candidates: Lois Capps (D), Abel Maldonado (R)
Rating: Likely Democratic

The nicest member of the House now has to contend with someone who 1) created this primary system for pretty much his own benefit, 2) has tax issues, 3) isn't liked by his own party much, and 4) barely has any money. I give Capps the edge. An edge that's wider than her old district, at least.

CA-25 - Northern LA County: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley
PVI: R+4
Incumbent: Buck McKeon (R-Santa Clarita)
Candidates: Buck McKeon (R), Lee Rogers (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

This district might be a ticking time bomb, but not this time around. Maybe a decade later?

CA-26 - Ventura County: Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
Candidates: Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica/Oak Park), Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark)
Rating: Tossup

This near-clusterfuck for Democrats is still a headache for our side. After thoroughly trashing Linda Parks in the primary, Brownley might have a hard time picking up enough Parks supporters to get over 50%+1. It doesn't mean that Tony Strickland has it easy though; he has a bad habit of pulling through with very close margins (he has won over 51% of the vote only once). Parks also doesn't like him (after all, she won her current supervisor's seat against his wife Audra Strickland). This area also has a deep Republican bench and is used to splitting tickets, so this race can go either way.

CA-27 - San Gabriel Foothills: Monterey Park, Pasadena, Glendora
PVI: D+10
Incumbent: Judy Chu (D-Monterey Park)
Candidates: Judy Chu (D), Jack Orswell (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Despite having her district torn apart and given more Republican turf, Chu, a powerhouse in California APIA politics, is safe. However, she should spend some time helping her protege Ed Chau in his assembly race, since he limped across the finish line during the primary when he should have dominated.

CA-28 - Hollywood: Burbank, Glendale, La Cañada Flintridge
PVI: D+20
Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)
Candidates: Phil Jennerjahn (R), Adam Schiff (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

For some reason, Schiff is still a Blue Dog. It made sense twelve years ago, but now in a D+20 district?

CA-29 - Eastern San Fernando Valley
PVI: D+22
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Tony Cardenas (D), David Hernandez (NPP)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Cardenas has pretty much been waiting for Howard Berman to leave this part of town, and he's getting his wish.

CA-30 - Western San Fernando Valley
PVI: D+15
Incumbents: Howard Berman (D-North Hollywood), Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
Candidates: Howard Berman (D), Brad Sherman (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Maybe I have a dirty mind, but when the Jewish Journal called this race "Two Jews, One District", I was thinking of something else.

CA-31 - Northeastern Inland Empire: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
Candidates: Bob Dutton (R-Rancho Cucamonga), Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar)
Rating: Safe Republican

CA-26 was a near-clusterfuck, while this was a complete clusterfuck. This might be the only congressional district in California with both a Democratic PVI and a GOP representative come November. Democrats will now have to work against incumbency and fluctuating Latino turnout in 2014 to gain this seat. The biggest Democratic names here are former assemblyman (and current assembly candidate) Joe Baca, Jr. and current assemblywoman Wilmer Carter, both of whom are unpalatable to most progressives.

CA-32 - San Gabriel Valley: West Covina, El Monte, Baldwin Park
PVI: D+10
Incumbent: David Dreier (R-San Dimas)
Candidates: David Miller (R), Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Judy Chu's and David Dreier's districts were shredded, and this emerged as a result. Despite her low primary results (due to low Latino turnout and not having represented the area before), Napolitano should make it back to Congress.

CA-33 - Beach Cities: West LA, Santa Monica, Redondo Beach
PVI: D+13
Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Bill Bloomfield (NPP), Henry Waxman (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Don't be deceived by Waxman's 45.6% here (and don't fall for the DC pundits' nonsense). It's the 2010 Betsy Butler/2011 Janice Hahn situation at work: low turnout means the Beach Cities and Palos Verdes Republicans turn out in force. It will stay Democratic in November, especially with UCLA in session.

CA-34 - Central LA
PVI: D+29
Incumbent: Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Xavier Becerra (D), Stephen Smith (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Yawn.

CA-35 - Western Inland Empire: Pomona, Ontario, Fontana
PVI: D+10
Incumbent: Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
Candidates: Joe Baca (D), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Not-yawn. State Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod, the more progressive candidate in this race, has an uphill battle against Baca in both votes and fundraising. However, her base is also in Chino and Pomona, areas where Baca is not well known, so she still has a chance. She also kept Baca below 50% despite him getting establishment support, so anything goes.

CA-36 - Eastern Riverside: Palm Springs, Coachella, Hemet
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)
Candidates: Mary Bono Mack (R), Raul Ruiz (D)
Rating: Lean Republican

This district is an eclectic mix of swing turf, with blue Coachella and Indio matched with red Hemet and San Jacinto. The area is turning ever bluer, however, and Bono Mack being pushed below 60% is a good sign for Dems in this Latino-plurality district. It doesn't mean she's doomed though, since she successfully passes off as moderate enough to win election after election. I still give her the edge.

CA-37 - Central western LA: Crenshaw, Culver City
PVI: D+33
Incumbent: Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Karen Bass (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

There won't be much point running against her anyway, I suppose.

CA-38 - Southeastern LA County: Whittier, Norwalk, Lakewood
PVI: D+10
Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D-Lakewood)
Candidates: Benjamin Campos (R), Linda Sánchez (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Two Republicans are in a close race for second. Doesn't matter anyway; Linda Sánchez will win hands down.

CA-39 - Nixon Country: Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda, Fullerton
PVI: R+7
Incumbent: Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
Candidates: Jay Chen (D), Ed Royce (R)
Rating: Safe Republican

Chen has raised an impressive amount of money for a candidate in such a district, but the most it can probably do is push down Royce's margins.

CA-40 - Eastern LA: East LA, Downey, Bellflower
PVI: D+26
Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Boyle Heights)
Candidates: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D), David Sanchez (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Next.

CA-41 - South-central Inland Empire: Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Mark Takano (D), John Tavaglione (R)
Rating: Lean Democratic

Who would have thought that a Latino-majority district that voted 64% for Prop 8 might get a gay Asian congressman? And in Riverside of all places? Well, Takano tried doing it twice in the early 1990s and failed, but can he do it this time? The primary says yes, but not without lots and lots of work. He goes up against Tavaglione, a county supervisor with extensive name recognition in the area.

CA-42 - Southern Inland Empire: Corona, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta
PVI: R+12
Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
Candidates: Ken Calvert (R), Michael Williamson (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

Calvert might be the luckiest congressmember in California. After nearly losing to Democrat Bill Hedrick in 2008, he now has the fourth safest GOP district in the state. It also helps if your Democratic opponent doesn't act like one.

CA-43 - Southwestern LA: Inglewood, Torrance, Hawthorne
PVI: D+24
Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Bob Flores (D), Maxine Waters (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Not much to see here.

CA-44 - Harbor/Gateway Cities: South Gate, Carson, San Pedro
PVI: D+29
Incumbents: Janice Hahn (D-San Pedro), Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach)
Candidates: Janice Hahn (D), Laura Richardson (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Hahn crushed Richardson 60%-40% in the primary, and there's no evidence that the general will give a different result, turnout notwithstanding.

CA-45 - Inland Orange County: Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo
PVI: R+7
Incumbent: John Campbell (R-Irvine)
Candidates: John Campbell (R), Sukhee Kang (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

As much as I want Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang to win, there's no escaping the fact that the state senate and congressional maps in Orange County are drawn with great GOP tilt. If the commission had put Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Tustin in the same district (it looks weird, I know), perhaps a Democrat might have a fighting chance. But not now and not like this.

CA-46 - Central Orange County: Santa Ana, Orange, Anaheim
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana)
Candidates: Jerry Hayden (R), Loretta Sanchez (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic

If Loretta Sanchez couldn't lose in a red wave and after a racist remark about the Vietnamese (while running against a Vietnamese GOP opponent), then she's not losing this year.

CA-47 - Long Beach/Little Saigon: Long Beach, Garden Grove, Westminster
PVI: D+5
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Gary DeLong (R), Alan Lowenthal (D)
Rating: Likely Democratic

I'm pretty sure if Prop 20 had not passed, this district would not exist. No one would have thought of sticking Long Beach and Little Saigon together in the same district; it would not cross most people's minds. But here we are, and with both candidates being from Long Beach, it seems like it's a matter of whom Orange County sides with and whether it can counteract the Democratic weight of Long Beach. I give state senator Alan Lowenthal the edge in this Democratic-friendly district.

CA-48 - Coastal Orange County: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa
PVI: R+8
Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)
Candidates: Dana Rohrabacher (R), Ron Varasteh (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

This district has libertarian tendencies, but its ancestral GOP status makes it out of reach for Democrats.

CA-49 - Northern San Diego County: San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad
PVI: R+5
Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R-Vista)
Candidates: Darrell Issa (R), Jerry Tetalman (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

Like CA-48, ancestral GOP turf means safe GOP seat for the time being. But isn't it fun 1) giving Issa a more marginal seat and 2) watching it slip away from him?

CA-50 - Eastern San Diego County: Temecula, Escondido, Santee
PVI: R+14
Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R-Lakeside)
Candidates: Duncan Hunter (R), David Secor (D)
Rating: Safe Republican

Yeah. Not gonna happen.

CA-51 - Southern San Diego/Imperial: San Diego, Chula Vista, El Centro
PVI: D+11
Incumbent: Bob Filner (D-San Diego)
Candidates: Michael Crimmins (R), Juan Vargas (D-San Diego)
Rating: Safe Democratic

I can foresee endless primary challenges in the coming cycles. State senator Juan Vargas is a conservative Democrat (and has a feud with the progressive Filner, currently running for San Diego mayor), and voted against many progressive measures such as single-payer healthcare while in the state legislature.

CA-52 - San Diego, Poway, Coronado
PVI: D+1
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad)
Candidates: Brian Bilbray (R), Scott Peters (D)
Rating: Tossup

I'm not sure what the redistricting commission was thinking when they split UC San Diego between CA-49 and this district. If UCSD was completely in this district (and ruby-red Poway was cut off), then Bilbray would be screwed. But now we have a split campus and a swing district, complete with somewhat nasty fight on the Democratic side. It remains anyone's guess whether the fences between Peters and former assemblywoman Lori Saldaña can be mended quickly enough (or enough at all) in order to devote all resources to turn this district blue in November.

CA-53 - San Diego, La Mesa, Chula Vista
PVI: D+7
Incumbent: Susan Davis (D-San Diego)
Candidates: Susan Davis (D), Nick Popaditch (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic

Unlike the other San Diego districts, this one is relatively boring.

----

Aggregated, this gives:
28 safe Dem
5 likely Dem
1 lean Dem
3 tossup
3 lean Rep
13 safe Rep

If all lean and likely seats tilt the "correct" way, then this gives 33-3-17, essentially a range of status quo to Dem+3. So much for initial hopes of Dems gaining four seats in California alone. Of course, things can change from now till November, so these ratings are not set in stone.

----

Comments and constructive criticism welcome.

----

UPDATE: I fixed the math. It should be 28 safe Dem and 13 safe GOP. This works out to status quo to Dem+3. Looks better for Team Blue, but not by much.

Originally posted to kurykh on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 09:39 AM PDT.

Also republished by Herding 438.

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