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Leading Off:

WV-Sen: Politico's Charlie Mahtesian makes the case for why he thinks Dem Sen. Jay Rockefeller, who is 75 years old, won't seek re-election in 2014. The prime piece of evidence is a remarkable speech Rockefeller gave on the Senate floor on Wednesday, which is causing quite a stir back home. Rockfeller directly took on the coal industry, a sacrosanct institution in West Virginia, as he spoke out in opposition to an ultimately unsuccessful effort to block the EPA from enforcing new rules on mercury emissions:

Rockefeller, D-W.Va., accused the coal industry of scare tactics. He said after years of industry opposition to new environmental regulations, the "bitterness of the fight has taken on more importance than any potential solution."

"The dialogue on coal, its impact and federal government's role has reached a stunningly fevered pitch—carefully orchestrated messages that strike fear into the hearts of West Virginians and feed uncertainty about coal's future are the subject of millions of dollars of paid television ads, billboards, break room bulletin boards, public meetings, letters and lobbying campaigns," he said.

"A daily onslaught declares that coal is under siege from harmful outside sources and that the future of the state is bleak unless we somehow turn back the clock, ignore the present and block the future."

These remarks are reminiscent of an equally surprising speech given by Rockefeller's former Mountain State colleague, the late Sen. Robert Byrd, who in 2009 accused the coal industry of using "fear mongering, grandstanding and outrage as a strategy." Byrd, of course, died the next year at age 92, though it's not clear whether he would have run for re-election when his seat was next up in 2012. But as Mahtesian points out, Byrd was a singular presence in West Virginia and could well have taken on Big Coal and won; Rockefeller's standing is a different matter altogether. You may recall that PPP poll (PDF) last year which showed him losing a hypothetical 2014 matchup with GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, 48-44.

Speaking of Capito, Mahtesian flags this passage from the Charleston Daily Mail's writeup:

Members of the business community were shocked by Rockefeller's speech, said West Virginia Chamber of Commerce President Steve Roberts said.

When a reporter called, Roberts answered his phone, "This is Capito for United States Senate headquarters."

I have to agree with Mahtesian: Keep this one on your watch lists.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Quinnipiac's new Florida poll is out, and it shows Dem Sen. Bill Nelson leading GOP Rep. Connie Mack by a 43-39 margin—which is actually up from their very bearish May poll that had Mack on top, 42-41. They also show Barack Obama with a four-point lead over Mitt Romney, a big swing from Romney's six-point edge last time. Click through for all the numbers (including GOP primary results, where Mack leads) as well as our complete analysis.

IN-Sen: Hah, dumbass.

MA-Sen: Sometimes, someone in politics says something so hilarious and breathtaking that it just leaves you with nothing to say. So god bless Scott Brown for this:

In the interview, Brown also fired back at suggestions that the campaign is lacking in substance, pointing out that he ran a radio ad about military base closings. He also said he is engaged in substantive issues on a daily basis, some that involve royalty.

"Each and every day that I've been a United States senator, I've been discussing issues, meeting on issues, in secret meetings and with kings and queens and prime ministers and business leaders and military leaders, talking, voting, working on issues every single day," he said.

When asked for confirmation of this startling claim, a spokesman for His Majesty King Scott I would "not say whether, or how often, Brown had actually met with royalty." put it, "I meant that every day I watch 'King of Queens.'"

One king did get in on the action, though: Matt Ortega, King of the Microsites, instantly put together a Tumblr site chronicling many of Brown's meetings with kings and queens... with pictures! (Hat-tip: Blue Mass Group)

UT-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is out with a new ad that claims that GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch is the "consistent conservative we can count on to knock down barriers to energy exploration" and is working to repeal "government-run healthcare." Size of the buy (including production costs): $95K. (James L)

VA-Sen: Republican George Allen is out with his first two ads, a pair of similar spots featuring a couple of elected official-moms who praise Allen's character and interest in children in utterly anodyne terms. So content-less are these ads you might even conclude Allen has an image problem that he's trying to patch up. But that can't be right. I mean, George Allen, an abrasive jerk? No way.

WI-Sen: Democrat Tammy Baldwin is out with her first TV ad, in which she says Wisconsin "lead[s] the entire nation in paper industry jobs," but China "lead[s] the world in cheating." So, says Baldwin, she put on her bipartisanship hat and led an effort to impose sanctions on China for "breaking trade rules." The spot, filmed in a paper factory, features a somewhat distracting hum of machinery in the background. (I also have to wonder how fellow Democrat Jamie Wall feels about the fact that Baldwin's press release touts her work with WI-08 Republican Rep. Reid Ribble on these issues.)

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Democratic ex-state Sen. Jackie Cilley reports raising $175K for her gubernatorial bid so far, though there's no immediate word on her cash-on-hand. That compares to $700K for primary rival Maggie Hassan, though Hassan entered the race at the end of October while Cilley didn't get in until the beginning of February. These reports include all fundraising to date, so it's not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison.

House:

FL-19: The National Association of Realtors, whose Florida chapter endorsed state Rep. Gary Aubuchon last week in the Republican primary to replace Connie Mack in the House, is starting to put their money where their mouth is. Their initial expenditures, totaling $33K, are dedicated to website-related expenses, but you can probably bet that they'll be putting series ad dollars into this race, based on the PAC's track record. (Their most recent effort was a successful spending spree to push GOP Rep. Gary Miller through CA-31's nightmarish top-two primary.) Aubuchon faces businessman Chauncey Goss, the son of former CIA director/ex-Rep. Porter Goss, in the Republican primary. (James L)

NY-08: WTF?

NY-13: We've got a pair of dueling expenditure reports in the Democratic primary. Campaign for Our Future, a Super PAC funded mostly by Reggie Van Lee, an executive at the consulting firm Booz Allen & Hamilton, is spending another $22K on mailers supporting their candidate, ex-Bill Clinton aide Clyde Williams. Meanwhile, the New York chapter of the League of Conservation Voters is matching that amount on mailers and newspaper ads supporting embattled incumbent Rep. Charlie Rangel. (James L)

Grab Bag:

RNC/DNC: In the month of May, the RNC raised $34.3 million, of which $25.9 million was a transfer from "the Romney Victory Inc. joint fundraising operation." Meanwhile, the DNC took in $20 million, which included $13.3 million from the Obama Victory Fund, "a joint committee of the DNC and the Obama reelection campaign." The DNC has $30 million cash-on-hand, the RNC $60.8 million.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Prez news: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Larsstephens

    1) Obama to address NALEO in Florida today:
    http://www.masslive.com/...

    2) Evangelicals in support of humane immigration reform not satisfied with Romney's non-answers on immigration:
    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 05:33:53 AM PDT

  •  Interesting comments (9+ / 0-)

    from Obama's pollster:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Seems as outsiders, we are looking at this race in a funhouse mirror.  Obama's polling apparently is very stable in contrast with the wild fluctuations in public polling, as one would expect.  But the public pollsters and the media breathlessly try to explain wild fluctuations and inconsistencies in public polling, attributing them to (often trivial) events in the campaign.  These fluctuations and inconsistencies are based on differences in methodology and sample composition.  I do not believe for a second that the real electorates bounce around as the public polls suggest, with Florida's electorate going from R+6 to O+4 in a few weeks, for example.  I tend to believe Berenson when he suggests that electorates are relatively static.

    •  Polling is an art, really (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      Moreso than a science. And wording and different pollsters matters a LOT. I don't believe that the race has been fluctuating so violently. I believe the race to be static at more or less. Tie between Obama and Romney nationally.

    •  Since I started tracking the average last fall (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, itskevin

      The range is 46-48 for Obama and 43-44 for Romney. Very stable.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 05:55:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do they internally poll all swing states? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:03:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:05:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  YES. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, tietack, itskevin, GradyDem

        They poll everything that is potentially competitive.

        I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't start with some cheap baseline polling in all 50 states, though that's just my speculation.

        But I bet at minimum they polled every state that was competitive last time, plus/including Arizona which they didn't contest seriously because it was McCain's home state.

        My understanding is they don't do national polling, since it's not a national campaign, it's a battleground state campaign.

        Re battlegrounds and potential battlegrounds, I would guess they poll every state at least once a month, maybe more if needed.

        And a Presidential campaign usually hires multiple pollsters.  Benenson is the main one, but I'm sure they use others, too.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:09:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rockefeller Is the Last Real Democrat..... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Floande, Keith930, blonde moment, davybaby

    ....we will ever have from WV.  Manchin is likely the last Democrat of any kind we'll have from there.  At least in my lifetime.

    •  I think they are going away (4+ / 0-)

      But you're forgetting that West Virginia is still completely dominated by Democrats. Carte Goodwin will run to replace Rockefeller, and should be even money at worst against anyone not named Shelly Moore Capitol.

      •  I'm pretty sure (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, blonde moment

        Capito will run and probably win when Rockefeller's seat is up.  But she is an anomaly - a very strong Republican for statewide office in West Virginia.  Leaving her out of the equation, I would presumptively favor any Democrat running for statewide office in West Virginia.  The evidence is overwhelming.

      •  but what kind of Dem would Carter Goodwin be? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, Floande, bumiputera, blonde moment

        Certainly not a Rockefeller Dem.  Better than Capito and, I hope, better than Manchin.

        Jay's comments are quite accurate.  Here in SW PA we have billboards and lawn signs (including one NEXT DOOR---arrggh) that say

        "Stop the war on coal---Fire Obama!"

         And this is in the middle of the Fracking capital of the world!  The EPA isn't killing coal---it is the Natural Gas prices combined with the mild winter and the end-of-life of many coal fired electric plants whose maintenance costs are high---EPA just gave them an excuse to end production a couple of years earlier than they otherwise would and now they can blame it on Obama!  

        •  What kind was he before? (0+ / 0-)

          He has already been a senator, having served four months as an appointee in 2010. I don't recall any complaints about him.

          •  He was Manchin's Chief of Staff (0+ / 0-)

            when Manchin was Governor, so that could tell us one thing. His first vote as Senator was to pass unemployment benefits, too. As all West Virginia Democrats must be, I'd wager he's an economic populist.

            He's also quite good-looking.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 10:34:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I agree. (17+ / 0-)

      Other than sitting Senators Joe Manchin and Jay Rockefeller, sitting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, sitting Congressman Nick Rahall, sitting Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, sitting Attorney General Darrell McGraw, sitting Treasurer John Perdue, sitting Auditor Glen Gainer, sitting Ag Commissioner Gus Douglass, 28 out of 34 state senators, and 65 out of 100 state representatives, Republicans are absolutely dominating West Virginia politics right now and are sure to continue to do so from here to eternity.

      •  The advantage WV Dems have is... (7+ / 0-)

        ...they don't have a large black or other nonwhite population whose interests are at great odds with white conservatives.

        The Southern Dems in most states struggled and eventually fell into a deep hole because the chasm between black voters and conservative white Democrats was too big for Democratic candidates and elected officials to straddle.

        But WV being virtually all-white, with hardly any people of color moving in, the state Dems can just adjust uniformly to the electorate as-is.

        It may be that we eventually get nothing from the WV Congressional and Senate delegations beyond a vote for a Democratic Speaker and the unnecessary "extra" votes on politically easy stuff that passes by wide margins anyway.  In other words, a bunch of Gene Taylors.  Even worse, because they might, to stay politically popular at home, vocally slam national Dems no less than Republicans do.  So that would be a bunch of Zell Millers, not just Gene Taylors.

        But at least they would still be "Democrats."

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:15:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Advantage and disadvantage (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, tietack, MilesC

          See Virginia and North Carolina.

          But WV remains more susceptible to an economic populist message than other southern states.  Someone like Schweitzer or Sherrod Brown could carry it.  Hillary would have a chance because of pro-Clinton goodwill.  Although the state flipped in 2000 when he was still in office.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:24:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  VA and NC (3+ / 0-)

            are no longer "the South" to me.  Dems do OK in those states because of sophisticated urban centers and Yankee transplants to go along with the minority population.

            •  How can you say that "Dems do OK" (0+ / 0-)

              in VA when the state government is controlled by Republicans?

              "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

              by SueDe on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:59:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It happens (0+ / 0-)

                even the most Democratic states get Republican governors from time to time. But national Democrats (as in, presidential candidates) perform much better in VA and NC than any other southern state because of the factors spiderdem mentioned.

                27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                by bumiputera on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:06:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  There is a huge difference between VA on a fed (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, IndianaProgressive

                level and VA local elections. The governor is elected in off-off years, and turnout among core dem voters is always lower than in presidential elections. And the legislature is heavily weighted towards the rural areas of the state as opposed to the liberal Northern VA DC suburbs.

              •  Dems can win statewide at (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                stevenaxelrod

                in Virginia.  Mark Warner, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, Barack Obama, along with many historical examples.  Things stink for Dems in VA at the moment because 2009 was a bad election.  But you have to look at the big picture.  Dems controlled the State Senate not long ago at all.  We're doing OK there big picture-wise.

            •  They're "border states" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              spiderdem

              which still have significant bits of "the South" in them -- I suggest still a (small) majority in NC.

              Clearly, both are more Democratic than Missouri, but they're years (perhaps a decade or more) away from becoming like Maryland.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:07:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Yup, white voters are very split (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              spiderdem

              Both VA and NC have large minorities of white voters who are not Dixiecrats or culturally conservative in any sense.  That's what distinguishes those states from the rest of the Old South.  And, of course, election results bear that out, as Obama won both!

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:31:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I appreciate your point, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              but maybe VA and NC are still "the South" and "the South" is changing? Other regions of the country have experienced major political shifts in the past and will continue to do so.

              •  yeah (0+ / 0-)

                It makes no sense to decide what is "Southern" based on how liberal the White population is.

                North Carolina's still the South.  (NoVa not so much)
                But the South is changing

                19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

                by jncca on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 11:04:31 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Sherrod Brown's brother (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            Sherrod Brown's brother, Charlie Brown, Jr., was Attorney General of West Virginia in the 1970s.

        •  Great observation. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, bfen, DCCyclone

          I had never thought of it that way, but West Virginia is the last bastion of Dixiecrat rule and is the "whitest" southern state.  Kentucky still has a strong Dixiecrat presence, and is the next "whitest."  We are FUBAR in AL, MS, GA, SC, LA, and TN, which have larger AA populations.  

          AR is an exception to the trend, with a somewhat robust (15%) AA population but still a strong Democratic presence, but that is largely because the Republican party there is so lousy there that it failed to contest a bunch of seats in the state legislature and some statewide offices, leaving Dems in charge by default.

          •  It makes sense Arkansas would take longer... (0+ / 0-)

            ...at 15% black.  That's less nonwhite than the Deep South where whites are gone forever, but more nonwhite than West Virginia and Kentucky.

            But what doesn't make so much sense is Oklahoma.  Dems have collapsed there in spite of not having minority populations large enough to make whites feel threatened.  That's the state where the argument fails, since Dems owned the state like across the Old South and fell by the wayside just like them.  If there's a way to rationalize it, I suppose it could be the regional influence of nearly-all-white nearby states that were long GOP, like Kansas and other plains states.  But that's still iffy, Oklahoma remains the state that pokes a hole in my Grand Unifying Theory.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 10:38:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Well (0+ / 0-)

          I would hope that they'd just become (or start electing) Republicans before they reached a point where their elected Democrats start bashing the national party ad. nauseum

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM2 (Raised), TX20 (B.A. and M.A.in Pol. Sci.), TX17 (Live); Taste my skittles? Intern w/ Pete Gallego for Congress.

          by wwmiv on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:33:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  First law of the jungle is self-preservation (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bear83

            WV Democrats will do whatever they have to do as a party to keep winning elections.  In their case, unlike their Southern counterparts, they have an easier path to do that.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:44:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Doesn't There Come a Point.... (0+ / 0-)

              ....where the differences between the national party and the local interest becomes irreconcilable?  With the diverging coal interests, it strikes me that WV has found its Civil Rights Act permanent game-changer.

              •  One issue that WV know all too well (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                blonde moment

                is that a Senator Capito will not be able to bring home the bacon. They loved Byrd because over the course of his career he pumped millions of federal dollars into construction projects in WV. Hell, the man is practically singlehandedly responsible for the electrification of the whole state.

              •  It depends in part on Brian Schweitzer's future (0+ / 0-)

                as a national Democratic party voice.

                27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                by bumiputera on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:18:16 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

                  Schweitzer is not going to win the Presidential nomination of a party of radically diverse voters without becoming someone who alienates the kinds of voters one needs to win West Virginia.  Today's Democrats are the New America, and most West Virginians feel very alienated from that.  I don't think there's any harmonizing that in the foreseeable future.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:51:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  those are the exceptions. n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:24:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Senate seats might (0+ / 0-)

        Be more predicted by Presidential results than by Gubernatorial/downballot results, with Manchin winning on unusual personal popularity.  Democrats do pretty well with the statewide offices in KY, but it seems to be harder to elect a Senator, although I suppose it depends on the specific conditions (I can believe that Jack Conway might've beaten Mitch in 2008).  AR might be similar.  I'm trying to think of a cross-partisan analogue, but I can't really think of one.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:59:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe North Dakota? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27

          where someone said the state loves sending Republicans to the statehouse and Democrats to Washington because they deal with different issues.  That might have changed.  A lot of our awareness of trends is distorted by 2010.  And by 2008.  But anyway, remember that sitting State Coroner so-and-so doesn't have to vote on divisive national issues.

          As a counter-argument, I will say that, iirc, Nick Rahall had the highest rank on twohundertsventy's candiate-over-performance list of any Dem who voted for the ACA.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:07:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think it's a fluke of candidates & campaigns... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            ...and the political environment in my lifetiime that has let us hold the delegations in ND and, until recently, SD.

            Remember we're talking about a small handful of individuals who combined served over a long time.  We managed to luck out and have people rise who were personally popular outside their own parties.

            I think when you have a very small state with people serving for a long time, "party" control is a misnomer when the state seems to go against the grain.

            And on top of it, in my 44-year lifetime we've had a GOP President for 29 of them.  One-party rule doesn't last long, voters have turned against the party in power within a cycle every time.  So we often had a GOP foil to run against, or at least whose presence made attacks on Democrats fall on deaf ears since federal power is defined in voters' minds first by the President.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 10:17:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Will Grimes or Conway or Luallen be (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          able to compete with McConnell or Paul in the future? If they win, it'll blow up a lot of the assumptions people have.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 09:26:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe, maybe not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      They're still holding up fairly well on the state level.  Assuming Rockefeller runs in '14, it may depend on whether Obama or Romney is in office.  He'd have a much better chance if it's Romney.  In any event, you know he won't wont for money.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:20:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well I Will Agree With You There.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        savvyspy

        If Romney becomes President with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and pass the Paul Ryan budget amidst 80% public disapproval, then Democrats will likely hold the WV Senate seat in 2014.

      •  What about Tennant? (0+ / 0-)

        Everyone seems to be writing off Natalie Tennant to run for Senate in 2014.  She is popular.  I know she is pro-choice, but the voters don't seem to mind that with her.  Could she win in 2014?

    •  See also the Rec List Diary... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      on the growing problems facing the coal industry.

      Not unlikely that Rockefeller might retire in a couple of years.  The problem is, there doesn't appear to be anyone in the W. Va. Democratic party who would have the courage to come forward and start educating the folks that a host of factors is already forcing a steady decline in the use of coal that is unlikely to change.

      Voters there may rail against socialist Obama programs, but in truth those factors are inexorable.....the rise of natural gas and renewables as cheaper and cleaner sources of energy and the mounting evidence of the pollution, global warming and health damages caused by coal.

      The coal industry has managed to control W. Va politicians because so much of the state's economy has relied on this one-source industry.  Politicians so long at their beck and call have blinders on when it comes to trying to think outside the box and contemplate a future that turns to renewables and other industries.  They need to......and soon.

      Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

      by dweb8231 on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:16:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Charleston Gazette's "Coal Tattoo" blog published (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Mark27, bear83

      Rockefeller's speech in it's entirety, and the readers comments were overwhelmingly positive.  So maybe this doesn't presage an exit, afterall.  Here's a sampling of what readers in WV had to say about Jay's speech:

      "I am proud that Jay Rockefeller represents me in Washington."

      "I take back every rotten word I ever uttered about this fine gentleman."

      "Thanks, Senator Rockefeller, for reminding me of a time when West Virginians weren’t as given to groveling as they now seem to be."

      "Thank you Senator Rockefeller for speaking truth to power."

      Oregon: Sure...it's cold. But it's a damp cold.

      by Keith930 on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:24:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Left Front/French-legislative-2017 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SueDe, SLDemocrat

    PCF overwhelmingly votes to stay in Left Front, excited about prospects;

    [Hervé Poly, departmental head of the PCF in Pas-de-Calais], alongside many others, recognizes that "if the Front de gauche explodes, all the parties that make it up will explode along with it."
    "The Front de gauche permitted us to get out of the hole in which we found ourselves," affirms MP Fabien Roussel (Nord)
    http://www.humaniteinenglish.com/...
    http://www.humaniteinenglish.com/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 05:55:53 AM PDT

    •  People in this country (0+ / 0-)

      aren't paying enough attention to what is going on in Europe, particularly in France.  Few people here realize the extent of our economy's being intertwined with the fate of Europe.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:06:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MT-SEN: Republican ad criticizes Ryan Plan (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Floande, broccolid, itskevin

    "Rehberg refused to support a Republican budget plan that could harm the Medicare programs so many of Montana's seniors rely on."

    http://www.politico.com/...

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:21:37 AM PDT

  •  Scotty's going for the gusto (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    Has Romney up in his tracking 48-43.  Says Obama's getting only 35% of the white vote in his disproportionately Republican sample.  Approval rating down to 44%.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:36:55 AM PDT

  •  FL-19 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sapelcovits

    My folks are registered Republicans there, leaning towards Goss as the least conservative (relatively!) of the bunch.

  •  Regarding IN-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Don't think we are loving the hand wrapped gift he gave us. Expect some choice ads later this year.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:48:31 AM PDT

  •  Ann Selzer answers questions about her poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, Floande, askew

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Says the one criticism that might hold water is that she had too many highly-educated respondents.l

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:49:27 AM PDT

  •  West Virginia politics (0+ / 0-)

    seems to have arrived at the point where two Republicans run against each other for federal office, one of whom runs on the Democratic ticket.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:49:59 AM PDT

    •  There's Still an Underlying Populism There..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      Joe Manchin can sometimes still sound like a Democrat, as opposed to Ben Nelson for example.  But WV Democrats now perceive a need to distance themselves from Obama (or the national party even in a post-Obama world) to the point where you're conclusion is likely to ultimately be proven right.  The test will be Manchin's full term, assuming he gets re-elected in November.  Without an election fight looming in the immediate future, will the more left-of-center Joe Manchin of 2008 reappear?  Or will he still be voting against Obama and trashing him on every issue based on a continued desire to show his distance?  Time will tell.

  •  Mourdock honking the "Obamacare gone" horn... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    ...before SCOTUS even reads its decision. If SCOTUS upholds the ACA, Mourdock will NEVER live that down!

    "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:51:29 AM PDT

  •  I think it's hysterical that we've found something (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    ...cheaper than coal!  What no amount of progressive agitation could do, natural gas and the sacred market are doing just fine.

    Romney '12: Bully for America!

    by Rich in PA on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:08:50 AM PDT

  •  Can we start comparing Scott Brown (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, askew, sulthernao

    to Sarah Palin? His statement of "meeting with kings and queens" was indefencible. You would think that someone with degrees from Tufts and Boston College Law School would know that monarchies have no power. The Warren campaign cannot and should not let that go!

  •  You know Nir... (0+ / 0-)

    You can at least give me a hat tip considering I did a diary on the David Duke Endorsement YESTERDAY!!!!!

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    and I thought we were friends...

    "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." - J.S. Mill

    by dmsarad on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:26:36 AM PDT

  •  "courage"... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dmsarad

    Sad (but true) that a politically dangerous speech is a sign of retirement, isn't it? Was there ever a time when it was just a sign of courage?

  •  Gas prices could be under $3.00 by election day (5+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:44:58 AM PDT

  •  George Allen IS an abrasive jerk (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    I wish a Democratic political operative would attend one of his "rallies" and ask, "Why do you want to go back to the Senate?  Six years ago you were saying how boring it was."

    I wish other Democratic operatives would exclaim "Macaca! Macaca! Macaca!" when he shows up at his rallies.

    Abrasive?  You bet.  How many other governors would say they'd "push their soft teeth down their whiny throats" in speaking of legislators from the opposite political party?

    Allen is a narcissistic would-be cowboy who thinks he's entitled to high political office because his father was a goddamn football coach or something.  It's time for him to grow up and see himself for what he really is--just another aging, overfed, stupid, Caucasian political hack.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:45:50 AM PDT

  •  Cook's House writeup (0+ / 0-)
    our preliminary analysis indicates that the number of strongly Democratic districts—those with a score of D+5 or greater at the presidential level—decreased from 144 before redistricting to 136 afterward. The number of strongly Republican districts—those with a score of R+5 or greater—increased from 175 to 183. When one party starts out with 47 more very strong districts than the other, the numbers suggest that the fix is in for any election featuring a fairly neutral environment. Republicans would need to mess up pretty badly to lose their House majority in the near future.

    An analysis of the race-by-race landscape tracks the partisan data pretty closely. The Cook Political Report rates 211 House seats as solid or likely Republican, compared with 171 as solid or likely Democratic. If the 24 toss-up races split evenly between the parties, Democrats would score a net gain of just a single seat. Even if Democrats held everything in their solid, likely, and lean columns and also won every toss-up, they would

    http://nationaljournal.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 07:51:57 AM PDT

  •  6/18/37 (0+ / 0-)

    I think you meant to say that Sen. Rockefeller will be 77 in 2014, not that he is today; he turned 75 on Monday.

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