There was a surprisingly heavy polling load today, particularly some House internals that show Democratic competitiveness in races that were well off of the watch lists for both parties.
There were also several presidential polls, but divining much from them proved quite difficult. A Republican pollster had lousy news for Barack Obama in Virginia (and a Senate number that really compromises the credibility of the numbers in the presidential race, truth be told), but halfway decent numbers (considering the source) in Colorado). PPP had decent numbers for Obama in Oregon, and a lead in Ohio, though of considerably less heft than PPP has had in the past.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (48-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
"SWING STATES" (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
COLORADO (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
MICHIGAN (Denno Research): Obama tied with Romney (40-40)
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (47-44)
OHIO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
OREGON (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Romney d. Obama (48-43)
"Swing States" defined by NBC/WSJ as follows: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46, Elizabeth Warren (D) 46
MN-06 (G.Q.R. for Graves): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 48, Jim Graves (D) 43
OH-15 (PPP for Lang): Rep. Steve Stivers (R) 43, Pat Lang (D) 33
VA-SEN (We Ask America--R): George Allen (R) 44, Tim Kaine (D) 35
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
It is hard to draw a ton of conclusions from today's presidential polling, except that it marks yet another day where Mitt Romney only leads in the surveys produced by Gallup and Rasmussen (Davidsfr would know the exact number of days, but if memory serves, we are now north of five weeks on that particular metric).
The national polling is telling for one key stat, courtesy of the new NBC/WSJ poll. That survey changes very little at the toplines, where what was a four-point Obama lead in the last go-round is now a three-point Obama lead. What is potentially telling, however, is the fact that the president leads in the so-called "swing states" by more than double that margin.
That was a point also cited not long ago by PPP's Tom Jensen, who noted that the president's lead in national trial heats might be underselling his ability to carry the electoral college. The reason is, actually, pretty simple to understand. There are going to be a lot of red states that are going to be uber-red this year. Think places like Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Utah (where a poll out yesterday had Obama down by forty points). That will skew the numbers a little, even if the president's support in his 2008 coalition of states softens only a slight amount.
On balance, that's what today's state polling tells us. Aside from Michigan (which is dramatically closer than in 2008), and a super-sketchy Virginia poll (more on that later), the numbers between Obama and Romney are only a few points removed from where they were in 2008. And the margins only change the leader in one state—North Carolina (and that's according to Rasmussen, which one should note had Romney with a much bigger lead last month). Obama keeps leads in Colorado, Ohio and Oregon, albeit by slightly more modest margins than in 2008.
What we haven't see yet, that would signal a legitimate movement to the challenger in this election, is state polling that consistently puts Mitt Romney in a position to carry the day in the electoral college. Instead, there are ebbs and flows that resemble a game of whack-a-mole. As soon as Romney looks more competitive in Michigan, Colorado gets away from him. A poll shows him moving into the lead in Virginia, and another one shows him trailing in Florida.
The core problem for Romney, and one that still makes him a slight underdog in my estimation, is that there are maybe ten swing states. Obama needs a small coalition of them to come across the line for him, but Romney needs to hit nearly all of them. According to HuffPo/Pollster's electoral graph this week, Obama sits at 253 electoral votes that are either leaning or likely to fall his way. Romney is under 200 electoral votes. Obama just needs one or two tossups to fall his way to make it to the magic 270. And, despite the wide swings in national polling, that essential dynamic has been basically unchanged.
In other polling news ...
- It is a little hard to take that We Ask America poll in Virginia seriously. Not based on the presidential numbers, necessarily (though Romney +5 just feels a bit generous). But those Senate numbers are way off on the edge of where we have seen polling outcomes thus far in this very heavily surveyed race. The rule of thumb, as always, applies: if you pull a number out that is markedly different than pretty much everyone else, chances are that it is not everyone else that's wrong about the race.
- A couple of interesting House internal polls dropped today, as well. Both are from well-known pollsters (PPP and G.Q.R.), and both show GOP incumbents long thought comfortable in some peril. This is especially true of Michele Bachmann, who only leads hotelier Jim Graves by five points. Hers is as red a district as you will find in Minnesota, which leads me to wonder if her presidential sojourn didn't sit too well back home. Meanwhile, everyone assumed that freshman Rep. Steve Stivers was safe as could be after the GOP gerrymandered the holy Hell out of Ohio. But a new PPP poll for his opponent, Athens law director Pat Lang, shows Stivers well under 50 percent. Now, I suppose we wait and see if Stivers fires a poll across the bow to serve as a counter-narrative.
- If there is a silver lining in the new PPP poll out of Massachusetts, it is the fact that the undecided voters in this case would seem to be better suited to go to the challenger than the incumbent. They tend to like Scott Brown (whose overall job approval remains in positive territory), but they also are considerably more likely (as in, over 40 points more likely) to vote for Barack Obama than they are for Mitt Romney). In a close race, there is virtually no way that Brown can rely on that much ticket-splitting to save his butt. Almost no one doubts at this point, however, that this is going to be an exceptionally close race.