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Leading Off:

MA-Sen: PPP's new poll has the Massachusetts Senate race all tied between Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Sen. Scott Brown at 46 apiece. That's good news for Brown: Warren's been at 46 in both of PPP's last two polls, while Brown has inched up from 41 to 44 and now to 46. I have to wonder if his new positive ads have helped boost his numbers. Tom Jensen does note that undecideds in the Senate race lean heavily toward Obama, though this group also has favorable views of both Warren and Brown, so it's not so easy to say where they'll wind up. Click through for the full details and our analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

Senate:

CT-Sen, CT-05: The Connecticut AFL-CIO, which is the state's largest labor federation, representing over 200,000 members and 500 unions, just issued some Democratic primary endorsements. In the Senate race, they're backing Chris Murphy while in the contest to succeed Murphy in CT-05, they're supporting Chris Donovan.

ND-Sen: Look out! The DSCC just made $1.2 million airtime reservation in North Dakota to help out Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, and given how small the state is, that's a huge sum. There are only about 684,000 people total who live in the Peace Garden State, so we're talking $1.75 per person. To give you a further sense of what this means, the Fargo media market (the larger of the state's two markets) is ranked 120th in the nation, while Bismarck is 157th. So yeah, that's a lot of scrilla.

NE-Sen: Billionaire Warren Buffett will be hosting a fundraiser for Democrat Bob Kerrey later this month, but he isn't getting into the super PAC game. Buffett's comments illustrate a broader problem on the left in terms of our rich guys being all too ready to unilaterally disarm in the face of superior weaponry:

"I will not be doing super PACs of any sort. I think allowing unlimited contributions to campaigns is a terrible idea and an important and unfortunate step toward a plutocracy."
And refusing to fight fire with fire is an even quicker way to descend into plutocracy... or, as it really ought to be called, kleptocracy.

OH-Sen: It looks like that initial DSCC Ohio reservation—in the $2 million range—has already gotten bumped up. The Hill reports that the total now stands at $5.1 million and covers Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo and Youngstown.

VA-Sen: Does anyone believe this? We Ask America, the polling arm of the right-wing Illinois Manufacturers' Association (a relationship they do their best to hide), has Republican George Allen leading Democrat Tim Kaine 44-35 in the Virginia Senate race. They also have Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama 48-43.

House:

CA-02: Activist Norman Solomon is conceding the race:

Democrat Norman Solomon has narrowed the vote margin with Republican Dan Roberts to only 172 votes throughout the six counties comprising California's 2nd Congressional District.

Fewer than 1,000 ballots remain to be counted in Sonoma County, the only county still tallying ballots in the district. While the 172-vote gap is expected to narrow still further as Sonoma County processes its final outstanding ballots, it has become numerically very unlikely Solomon will overtake Roberts as these few remaining ballots are tallied.

Accordingly, this morning Norman Solomon contacted Dan Roberts and offered congratulations on his second-place finish in this "top two" primary race.

This is something of a booby prize for Roberts, though: In this dark blue district, Democratic Assemblyman Jared Huffman is heavily favored in November. But Roberts at least has the sense to know where the votes lie, based on the statement he put out in response to Solomon's announcement:
"To supporters of other candidates—including Norman Solomon—if you are as sick of war and nation-building as I am, then you have a candidate who has seen the horror of war and will fight tirelessly to bring our troops home. If you are tired of the influence of Wall Street crooks pocketing your hard earned tax dollars while avoiding accountability for the egregious conduct in this economic crisis, you have a candidate who has the know-how and street smarts to take them on. If you want a small businessman who understands job creation and the value of a dollar and thinks that both parties and their career politicians have failed us miserably, you have a candidate who cares about doing the right thing and not climbing the political ladder."
FL-06: In the crowded GOP field in Florida's open 6th District, the Club for Growth has found their man: attorney Ron DeSantis, who has led in fundraising so far.

IL-02: Dem Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. has been absent from Congress for two weeks, but only on Monday did his staff disclose that he is on medical leave and is being treated for "exhaustion."

MI-06: Citizens United is endorsing ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk in his bid to unseat Rep. Fred Upton in the GOP primary. But for now, it only looks like they're contributing $5K to his campaign. Hoogendyk will need more help if he's to pull off an upset.

MI-11: Hah: GOP Rep. Justin Amash, about as far outside of the establishment as you can get while still serving in Congress, has endorsed Kerry Bentivolio, the spurned Republican candidate in post-Thad McCotter MI-11. (Local GOP power-players are rallying around ex-state Sen. Nancy Cassis, who is waging a write-in bid for the nomination.)

MN-06: Wealthy hotelier Jim Graves is out with an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showing him trailing uber-Republican Michele Bachmann by just a 48-43 margin. That's a pretty auspicious start for a relative unknown like Graves, but it also shows what a challenge it'll be to reach that 50%+1 mark, since in a very red district like this, most of those undecideds will naturally tilt toward the GOP. That said, Graves will be well-funded, and Bachmann's going to have to take this race quite seriously, since she has unusual personal negatives thanks to her abrasive style.

NC-11: This Week in Birtherism features Republican Mark Meadows, candidate in the NC-11 GOP runoff:

"2012 is the time we're going to send Mr. Obama home to Kenya or wherever it is," Meadows said to applause at a June 9 tea party rally. "We're going to do it!"

At an appearance at a tea party forum on June 12, Meadows said, "we" will send Obama "back home to Kenya or wherever it is."

OH-15: You probably haven't heard of Pat Lang, but he's an elected official—the law director for the city of Athens, Ohio—who's taking on freshman Republican Rep. Steve Stivers. Lang just put out a poll from PPP showing Stivers in an unexpectedly weak position, leading just 43-33. Stivers' re-elects are weak (just 38% say they'd vote for Stivers while 41% say "someone new"), and he's also largely unknown, thanks to the GOP's radical gerrymander which left Stivers representing just 36% of the redrawn 15th.

Still, that same gerrymander turned a +9 Obama district into a +6 McCain seat, and Stivers has almost a million bucks on hand. Lang, meanwhile, had just $8K in the bank. This poll is obviously aimed at getting his name out there among donors and power-players, but Lang has a very steep hill to climb to make this off-the-radar race competitive.

WA-01: Democrat Suzan DelBene is the first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the 1st, with a new ad touting her middle-class roots. It's not a surprise to see her jump in first, since she has money to burn (she's capable of self-funding, though she's raised well too)—and a name rec deficit to make up, ahead of the Aug. 7 primary. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

Oregon: PPP's first poll of Oregon in a year will probably attract attention for its presidential toplines, which have Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-42 (a bit narrower than you'd think based on 2008 numbers, though Oregon was closely fought in '96 and '00).

However, it also has a full set on numbers on the statewide downballot races. The three partisan races all look pretty safe for the Democrats. The Dem incumbents lead in the SoS race (Kate Brown leads Knute Buehler 48-30) and for treasurer (Ted Wheeler leads Tom Cox 46-34), and the Dem is also up in the open AG race (Ellen Rosenblum leads James Buchal 46-33). (It's odd that Buehler, the GOP's one legit recruit here, fares worse than the last-minute fill-ins they scraped up for the other two races.) The Labor Commissioner race is the most competitive, and that may be because it, unlike the other races, is an ostensibly nonpartisan position: Incumbent Brad Avakian (who's a Dem, and whom you might remember from getting pasted in the OR-01 special primary) trails his opponent, GOP state Sen. Bruce Starr... though that's a 23-21 margin, with 56% left undecided without the cues from party IDs. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Filings: We're getting down to stems and seeds in terms of candidate filings. Deadlines recently passed in two of the last states where the filing period was still open: New Hampshire and Vermont (PDF). If you still want to run for Congress this year, hurry up and move to Rhode Island (filing closes 6/27), Delaware (7/10), or Louisiana (the laggard, 8/17).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by These Green Mountains and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  VA: Old Dominion U poll has Obama up 49-42 (21+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 05:06:55 AM PDT

    •  so much for we ask Americas bs poll (10+ / 0-)
    •  Voters Paying Attention Early Is Good News Too. (7+ / 0-)
      With Virginia expected to be a pivotal state in deciding the winner of the presidency, voters said they're already paying close attention.

      Six in 10 said they're watching news coverage or researching candidates every day.

      "I was surprised about how politically engaged people are," Richman said. "It suggests that this is going to be a pretty intense election."

    •  No track record (9+ / 0-)

      This outfit hasn't polled all year, this is a first by them.

      And the article doesn't link to any chart or other document with details.  Gotta see the deets to know what to make of it.

      I generally distrust sporadic pollsters.  Roanoke College is a proven hack, and they and CNU do very poor work.  I'm doubtful of ODU, too.  I think good polling work requires real practice.

      Yes these particular numbers are happy, but in election polling, better to be right than happy.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:13:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So much good news today! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Paleo, TofG, itskevin

      Maybe I will play the lottery.

    •  Poll taken May 16-June 15 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, mconvente, KingTag

      raises some questions, but still welcome news.

      •  That is a disaster (5+ / 0-)

        A 30-day field period renders the poll not valid.

        That just isn't done in a valid poll.

        That doesn't mean the numbers can't be right.  But it means the poll isn't trustworthy.  A good sampling period is a few consecutive days, certainly at least a couple days but always less than a week.

        That's too bad, because the numbers otherwise are credible.  I would note on race, like the DK/SEIU weekly poll, the presence of some other categories is weighing down all the other groups' composition.  The 14% black sample in particular is way low, but with 7% saying either "mulitiracial" or "other" or refusing to answer, I would bet the "black" respondents in the poll were quite a bit higher.  Still, that, too, raises doubts about the sample.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:45:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well then kiss off Pew Research Center (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Paleo, LordMike

          because they too have done polls that have spanned a month, and others that have gone longer than a week, and I wouldn't dismiss those out of hand. In fact, I would trust Pew about as much as any pollster on the national level.

          Longer field periods for polls are becoming more common has it becomes harder to get respondents. It may be ideal to contain the polling period to a week or less, but I don't think any poll that goes longer is invalidated.

          •  I didn't know Pew stayed out there that long (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bharat, Bailey2001

            It's accepted wisdom in polling that a field period that long is a problem.

            I can see where it's not a problem on some kinds of polls.  If you're asking people about things where there's nothing that could be expected to change their minds quickly, like their view of abortion or gay marriage or questions about their broader political orientation, then I can see a longer field period being fine.

            But an election poll that's out for a month is not something I would trust, unless it's designed as a tracking poll with larger daily subsamples.  I don't care if response rates are lower, that doesn't validate a poll having a longer field period.  It simply might mean accurate polling is harder and more expensive (since it requires more calls), and maybe tight-budgeted media organizations and universities will just produce more bad polls and no one can figure out how to make it better.

            But this poll had 776 registered voters and people "planning" on registering, which averages out to roughly 25 surveys per day.  I'm awfully skeptical of that.  I'd feel better if the field dates were a typo.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:26:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I know the arguments for this... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          but when I look at Gallup daily tracking and it's wide daily swings I think they don't have any validity either.  I don't think anybody really changes their opinion on who they are going to vote for daily or ever weekly - it's a lot more stable than the daily polls would show.  So if I was polled May 20th or June 14th the odds are 85% or higher that I'd be voting for the same person.  

          I think all polling is garbage these days.   Too many pollsters too much media focus on them makes them a political tool rather than the seeker of the truth of the moment.  

          Play with the demo samples and you can get any result you want.   All that is really being shows is the pollster's ultimate opinion on what he/she thinks the political climate is.  

          •  The problem with Gallup... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, itskevin

            ...is getting good samples.  They're just not getting them.

            Sample selection itself is an art and science that public polling doesn't consistently do all that well, and private polling does much better.  That's because it's expensive, and you're only doing to do it if your livelihood depends on your polling being exactly right......and only for campaigns is that the case.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:28:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Given the stability in Virginia (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          as we've seen from other polls, I'm not convinced a 30-day poll is bad.

          Right now, it's all about setting baselines for the general election, anyways.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:35:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Why an entire month??? (0+ / 0-)
  •  Obama to make two day bus trip in OH and PA (12+ / 0-)

    Starting a week from tomorrow.

    http://www.ajc.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 05:10:19 AM PDT

  •  why is the dscc (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MartyM

    spending so much in ohio, brown is basically guaranteed to win

    Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

    by Hamtree on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:05:04 AM PDT

  •  MA SEN needs a full-on campaign on Brown (7+ / 0-)

    So, to put this bluntly, Brown's got a lot of negatives but the campaign thus far is hardly touching them at all. Most particularly his role in tipping the Senate towards this do-nothing filibustering minority-runs-the-show we've had with the GOP.

    Call it awareness, call it negative campaigning, somebody needs to get to the meat of the matter on Brown. Take off the kid gloves, the Brown campaign has had no compunctions about out and out smears against Warren and simply listing off the things Brown has supported that most Massachusetts voters oppose (or vice versa) will certainly suffice to bring those negatives up in the polls.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:38:55 AM PDT

    •  Patience, young padawan... (6+ / 0-)

      happen it will, when right time is...

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:43:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've heard exactly this since last summer (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        raboof, LordMike, TheCrank

        "We're working on position statements."

        "We're working on a schedule."

        "Be patient, it's early."

        "Don't worry, we're working on it."

        "Of course she supports ____ issue, why are you worrying about her website?"

        It's almost July.  The election is in November.  There IS no more time.  Warren's campaign either needs to stop reacting and go after Brown, or admit that she's over her head and bring in someone who knows how to win.  She is neither well known nor well liked outside of the Boston area, and the smears about her ancestry are not going away.

        •  47-38 favorable according to PPP (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, Bharat, LordMike, jncca, itskevin

          Lots of candidates across the country would kill for numbers like that.  And this encompasses far more than just Boston.

          Frankly, I've heard you say exactly the same things since forever and she seems to be doing just fine despite your concern.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:38:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  and seriously (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bharat, LordMike, itskevin

            is there any evidence that anyone besides the Boston Herald gives a shit about the "ancestry" BS?

            Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:45:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Zero (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Bharat, LordMike, itskevin

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:54:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  It's all over the place in Western Mass (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              And yes, it is sticking.  So is the "why was she so afraid of Marisa DeFranco?" business.  I know a lot of very progressive voters who are really unhappy with her campaign and are not planning to vote for either candidate because they're fed up with Warren's constant pleas for money and hamhanded response to the Native American smear.

              Meanwhile, the general feeling about Brown is that he's a moderate, he's a nice guy, he isn't a wingnut, and well, why shouldn't we send him back for a full term?  With the exception of the Blunt Amendment, he hasn't done anything to rile up the voters against him.

              I wish I were wrong about this, and I wish I'd been wrong from the beginning.  But the polls are showing exactly what I've feared from the beginning.

              •  the polls which (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, itskevin

                pretty much have shown a remarkably consistent tie for...almost a year?

                Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:18:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The same polls (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, itskevin, HoosierD42

                  Give her a 80-9 favorable rating with the very liberal and 73-12 with Democrats.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:24:38 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Of course the Democrats support her (0+ / 0-)

                    To win, though, she's going to have pull independents, not Democrats.  Is there any sign that they're tending toward her?  All I've seen indicates that Brown is still their choice.

                    •  No she doesn't (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      sapelcovits

                      She can afford to lose independents as long as she doesn't bleed too many Democrats.

                      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                      by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 04:30:58 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  well, of course (0+ / 0-)

                      there's no way Warren is going to win independents, unless Brown outright collapses. she just needs to not lose them 2-to-1 like Coakley did. Even a 3-to-2 loss would still result in a Warren victory, in all likelihood.

                      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:07:05 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  I thought you just said it would be a landslide? (4+ / 0-)

                This is my pet hate with blogging - the idea that because you live somewhere you know better than everybody else. Yet I sit here in the UK every single day and know 100% more about US politics than 99% of the US population. Go figure!

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:19:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Nobody cares about the DeFranco thing (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits, itskevin

                seriously.

                27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                by bumiputera on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:28:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  This is exactly why dems lose. (0+ / 0-)

                If they are only evaluating Brown vs. Warren they have now clue.  I agree that Warren needs to go on the offensive.  But for crying out loud Masschusettes dems in the bluest of blue states!!!   We need every senator we can get if they want any of their ideals to play out at a national level.   Please talk to these dumbfuck progressives you know and give them a clue.  And yes, I'm blaming the voters because this is elementary school ignorance.

                Would we be so happy to have a military that dwarfs all others combined if it was a line item deduction on our paychecks next to FICA."

                by Back In Blue on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:02:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not sure what you mean by "doing fine" (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Back In Blue

            Especially since everyone except me (and Sharoney, and a couple of others) was predicting a Warren landslide last fall.  That's not what the polls have said.

            •  Doesn't say much for your analysis (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              You don't win a landslide against somebody with 51-38 job approval, even in Massachusetts.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:16:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I cannot teach him. The boy has no patience. (0+ / 0-)

            Hmmm.  Much anger in him, like his father.  A Jedi must have the deepest  commitment, the most serious mind. This one a long time have I watched.  All his life has he looked away... to the future, to the horizon.  Never his mind on where he was. Hmm?  What he was doing.  Hmph.  Adventure.  Heh!  Excitement.  Heh!  A Jedi craves not these things. He is reckless.

            He is too old.  Yes, too old to begin the training.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:51:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Blame the "no-outside-money" agreement... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slacks

      Because candidates themselves can't go hard negative without it hurting themselves as well.  

      I think this has helped Warren as she was the unknown so it would have been easier for the SuperPAC's to frame her before she had a chance to frame herself.  Brown would have faced negative attacks himself from pro-left groups, but he was the more known entity so they would have had less effect.  

      So now it will come down to his voting record and how he ran in 2009 as "I'm going to stop the Obama agenda" - let's see how that plays when Pres Obama will win the State by 20 points.  Can people who are voting for Pres Obama then turn around and vote for the guy who ran on being the vote to stop the Obama agenda?

       

    •  If pointing out someone's record is negative (0+ / 0-)

      campaigning, it follows that the person's record is negative, and should be pointed out.

      Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

      by shoeless on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 06:52:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We really need to do a Lincoln Chafee on Brown (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      Unfortunately "Do you really want McConnell to be one senator closer to the majority?" isn't as strong as "Do you really want McConnell to be the majority leader." If it worked against Chafee who actually was a principled, moderate, and in many ways a great senator with sky high popularity, we should be able to make it stick against Brown. Furthermore, I think Warren is a more likeable candidate than Whitehouse was then.

      ( Disclaimer: Chafee's loss still upsets me a bit. Unfortunately it had to happen for the good of the nation, and Chafee himself even admits such. I won't feel bad at all when we knock down Brown.)

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:30:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  unfortunately (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, bumiputera

        the national environment isn't like it was in 2006. That was probably the decisive factor in Chafee's defeat.

        Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:46:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It should still be part of the narrative (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bharat, R30A

          Even if it doesn't get her over the top.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:54:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Probably? (0+ / 0-)

          That was the only factor in his defeat, just about.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 02:44:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  not really (0+ / 0-)

            it wasn't literally the only factor. Chafee's close call in the primary softened him up, and Whitehouse was a pretty good candidate. I'm not sure if Sheeler would have beaten Chafee had he won the nomination.

            Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 03:39:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, I'm saying once it was to the general (0+ / 0-)

              They were given a choice between a Republican whom they liked a lot and a relatively unknown Democrat, and they kicked out Linc.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

              by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 09:34:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Whitehouse wasn't really that unknown (0+ / 0-)

                he had been the US Attorney for RI and more importantly ran for governor in 2002. (How do you forget a name like "Whitehouse"?)

                Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 06:53:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Those are my exact thoughts. (0+ / 0-)

      Saw the tweets by PPP yesterday, and thought:  there must be ads run about Brown joining the filibusters that stopped progress.  List the bills.

  •  All it takes is a smile (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, OleHippieChick

    I am just amazed at how gullible voters can be.

  •  Romney campaign slogan (6+ / 0-)

    Romney's campaign slogan:
    "No question is too small for him not to answer it."

  •  Operation Fast and Furious Myths (0+ / 0-)

    I know this isn't overtly Election related, but I just wanted to see what everyone thought of this...

    http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/...

    It's a long read but it really dispells a lot of the right wing myths about the Operation.

    Any chance this information gets out there and puts this "controversy" away for good?

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:03:08 AM PDT

  •  Scarborough was depressed today (10+ / 0-)

    He had to sit there and admit Romney was losing this thing and even Mark Halperin had to say Obama weathered a bad month in great shape. The best part was Joe admitting the bain ads worked and the beltway pundits were wrong.

    •  First Read (they don't pay me) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bharat, Alice Olson, itskevin

      "An undefined Romney: Why could the negative TV ads have a bigger impact -- at least for now -- on Romney than Obama? Here’s one explanation: Romney remains largely undefined, according to our poll. Although it shows that only 6% of respondents don’t know who Romney is, just 20% say they “know a lot” about him, versus 43% who say the same about Obama."

      "A month ago, Romney’s fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states.  What’s more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it’s more NEGATIVE. That’s compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question."

      The two are related.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:25:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fascinates Me To No End...... (10+ / 0-)

      ....that the consensus among the Beltway pundits and the corporate Democrats was that the Bain ads wouldn't work.  I can't imagine a tact that would resonate more effectively with Joe Sixpack than a guy who had to construct the very platform with which Bain Capital suits would stand on to tell them they were fired.

    •  How funny that is! (0+ / 0-)

      Just the other day, I found an old clip, presented as a new one, where Joe S. was talking about how top Democrats were telling him Obama was in over his head and had no idea of what he was doing.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 10:06:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  LOL @ MN-06 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, KingofSpades

    and the dry understatement of characterizing Bachmann as possessing an "abrasive style." Abrasiveness is her raison d'être.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:17:11 AM PDT

  •  Obama and Massachusetts (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Back In Blue, Alice Olson
    Tom Jensen does note that undecideds in the Senate race lean heavily toward Obama, though this group also has favorable views of both Warren and Brown, so it's not so easy to say where they'll wind up.
    This suggests to me that Obama could do Warren a serious solid by putting in some time in MA campaigning for/with her.
  •  Could it be that (13+ / 0-)

    Obama is running a GOOD campaign (at least on the airwaves)?  The beltway media gasps and swoons in disbelief, but First Read dares to "go there:"

    Want to see the power of negative TV ads? But the NBC/WSJ poll also finds that Romney had a pretty rough month, too, especially in the swing states where all the advertising is going on. Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama’s lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney’s fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states.  What’s more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it’s more NEGATIVE. That’s compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states -- like here and here and here -- are having an impact.
    But, but, but ... Corey Booker!
    •  The thing is (0+ / 0-)

      What happens when Romney starts running his ads in full force?  Does the game change?

      It will probably be too late to change his own image, but he can still hurt the President.

      31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:24:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney and his allies (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Alice Olson, itskevin, askew

        have pretty much been matching Obama's spending already.  The presidential race is on like Donkey Kong.

      •  Romney's (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Alice Olson, askew

        ads are basically already in full force. Crossroads, Restore our Future, and every GOP Super PAC are already running at full force.

        Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

        by ehstronghold on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:28:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Possible, but... (4+ / 0-)

        "Why could the negative TV ads have a bigger impact -- at least for now -- on Romney than Obama? Here’s one explanation: Romney remains largely undefined, according to our poll."

        The opposite is true of the president. Harder to move numbers when people already hold an opinion. Some of us have been saying that for months and this poll and the Quinnipiac numbers showing Romney's favorables dropping in OH, PA and FL clearly shows that the contrast ads are working. The worries about Republican money costing Obama the race is unfounded IMO. If he loses it will be due to the fundamentals not SuperPACS.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:31:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Socks, please read these other replies...... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib, Alice Olson, itskevin

        I'm surprised anyone here doesn't realize anti-Obama attack ads have flooded every swing state, and a few other states, too (like Michigan).

        It doesn't matter that Romney's personal campaign isn't saturating.  His allies are doing all his dirty work for him.  And he's always counted on that.

        The only thing not happening is Romney doesn't have positive ads airing outside of his 4 initial target states.  But that's a problem for him, not something hopeful, because he'll be defined before he can defend.  And he's really never had a good defense for anything this whole cycle, it's a mystery to me what his ads can say on his behalf.

        One thing I notice is that OFA goes on the air to respond to attack ads.  The "private sector is doing fine" attack ads are now getting an unannounced response ad from OFA.  So OFA isn't letting attacks go unchallenged.

        But Mitt is letting attacks go unchallenged, and his allies aren't defending him, they're instead just attacking Obama more.

        That's a recurring theme in Mitt's campaign all cycle, that attacks on him are free, no one defends him.  And now it's playing out in TV ads, too.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:47:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  When you lie all the time it's hard to defend. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Alice Olson

          Romney can't really counter Obama's ads because they're true.  The spin is minimal.   And when Romney's campaign tries to be clever, they fail big time.   Heck, even Rove has lost his touch.

          Would we be so happy to have a military that dwarfs all others combined if it was a line item deduction on our paychecks next to FICA."

          by Back In Blue on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:10:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Heehee! (0+ / 0-)

          "He'll be defined before he can defend."

          EXACTLY.

          To all the wingers who taunted Kerry as an effeminate flip-flopper and then rejoiced in his defeat, I just have to say: Karma is a witch. With a capital B.

          29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

          by The Caped Composer on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 12:14:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Good question re Romney. (0+ / 0-)

        I happen to think attacks like those on his record at Bain are part of at least a two-pronged strategy. One is to demolish the idea that his record as a businessman, such as it is, is going to make him an effective president. Another is to show how we can create jobs, like through infrastructure spending.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 10:09:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There appears to be a rather strong correlation (5+ / 0-)

      between voters being exposed to Romney, and voters liking Romney less.

    •  Actually I think Obama is running a better (6+ / 0-)

      campaign than in '08.  People may forget, but his campaign was very passive and nonreactive to McCain attacks in the summer and past Labor Day.  Then the financial collapse hit, and that was that.

      This time around they seem more focused, more aggressive and smarter.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:32:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's Always The Instinct..... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Alice Olson, jncca

        ....to say that whoever's campaign won the election are geniuses while the losing campaign were idiots.  For all the hand-wringing going on now by concern trolls on both sides, history will be written on Campaign 2012 that the election winner ran the most unbelievable, super-spectacular campaign in world history.

  •  ND-Sen:Buy a Station... (0+ / 0-)

    Given the costs of Linda Lingle TV in Hawaii, would it be cheaper to simply buy a station (or at least a channel) in North Dakota?

  •  Morning Joe forced to admit Bain works (4+ / 0-)

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:47:26 AM PDT

  •  I dont really understand this theory that (4+ / 0-)

    Roberts writing the ACA opinion is bad news for the law. I mean, maybe it is. But it's a such a major case, I would think the Chief Justice would want to write that opinion, however the ruling comes down. It seems just as possible that the law could be upheld with Roberts ensuring the scope of the ruling is narrow(explaining why health insurance market is unique, etc)

    •  Everybody has always said it will either be (8+ / 0-)

      5-4 or 6-3 with Roberts with the majority.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:53:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sean Trende is such a hack (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bumiputera, LordMike, askew

      and it's a mystery to me why he thinks he has any special insights into the thoughts of the justices.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:02:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  To be fair (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        People on our side have made similar comments but with the opposite conclusion.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:06:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  One of the great things about a ruling (6+ / 0-)

        upholding the law would be how embarrassing it would be to so many pundits. I mean, conspiracy is right, there are people in favor of the law who are just as clueless about the decision that have been saying it will DEFINITELY be upheld.

        But most of the punditry is that it is definitely going to be struck down, the mandate at least. It would be really entertaining to see the media react to a ruling to uphold it.

        I think the Court would get a chuckle out of it. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, in that speech at ACS last week, seemed to delight in how wrong the media has been about some of the rumors surrounding the law(ex, one report that the decision would be handed down May 24).

        •  What I don't understand is (0+ / 0-)

          what, frankly, has made the general sentiment shift from the Supreme Court upholding the ACA to it being struck down.  The tone of the justices during the hearings?  We all know that isn't a reliable predictor.  Ruth Bader Ginsburg's recent remarks?  Last I checked, everything she said was EXTREMELY vague.  Scalia signaling that he's willing to flip-flop on Wickard?  Nobody ever considered him the pivotal vote anyway--that was always Kennedy.

          Frankly, I've always felt that a 6-3 ruling upholding the mandate but with extreme limitations written by Roberts would be the most likely outcome (and no, I'm not even a particularly big fan of the mandate).  I guess we'll find out in less than 24 hours.

      •  He really is a moron, especially on this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, The Caped Composer

        He's not a lawyer and has no legal training.  Even "legal experts" don't know what they're talking about when they try to make these predictions, but Trende trying to do this is like a pro wrestler making predictions on Olympic figure skating.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:25:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Is he ever right about anything? (0+ / 0-)

        His analysis should provide some comfort, I would think since he's not very good.  Has he been right on some stuff?  What's his history?  I don't know enough about him, except for the negative reviews of his work here.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:12:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Trende should stick to election analysis (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:07:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Another theory, seems to be that Scalia (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bumiputera

      could be in the majority of the ACA case, and thus the law(or the mandate) has been struck down.

      Because he wrote the dissent in the SB1070 case. If he were in the minority in ACA, then he would likely would not have read his dissent from the bench in the AZ case.

      But again, I dont know how much tea leaf reading you can do. I dont know if the justices really think the way we do on stuff like this.

      link

      •  And another theory I've read (6+ / 0-)

        is that Scalia's vehemence in his dissent in the Arizona immigration law decision reflects anger and frustration about being on the losing side on ACA.  That has all the predictive value of what you said above: none.

        This sort of speculation may make for a good political or legal parlor game, but it ultimately doesn't tell us squat about how the Justices will vote.  As Ruth Bader Ginsburg said, "Those who know don't talk, and those who talk don't know."

        And considering the leak-proneness of much of the Washington legal establishment, the Supreme Court (justices, clerks, and everyone else there) have done a pretty remarkable job of keeping all their votes and rulings secret until the opinions are officially released.  It's all too easy to imagine someone having a few at a cocktail party and inadvertently spilling the beans.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:16:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GOP spin (7+ / 0-)

    http://thepage.time.com/...

    “This should have been his best stretch, ala Clinton after the primary vs. Dole. Instead he limped along. The fact that he couldn’t put the hurt on Romney is telling."

    Really? In this economy and with this media?

    “Romney is doing better overall than two months ago – much, actually. On favorability with non-Democratic voters, on ballot, with women (any slippage with fav/unfav is just with Democratic voters who aren’t going to be for him. They have more reasons not to be for him.)

    Except his favorables are getting worse not better according to NBC and Quinnipiac.

    “If the election were held today, Obama would lose."

    President Kerry disagrees.

    “Keep in mind, Obama has outspent us three to one on television in the last six weeks. That won’t stand.

    Does that include outside spending?

    “Just to be clear. If Obama goes in 47 to 44 [in horse race polls versus Romney], he will lose. I mean, everyone understands this, no?”

    Obviously not.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:50:04 AM PDT

    •  I did expect more of a bounce for Romney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Alice Olson, itskevin

      I mean, of course, Obama could still lose, and it will be a tough election. But especially after all the talk about a horrible June for Obama, and Romney wrapping up the election last month, I was bracing for worse numbers.

      I noticed that about Romney's favorables too. In the NBC poll, they seem to have stalled out in negative territory for this month, when he seemed to get pretty decent media coverage.

      •  By all accounts he had a terrible month (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Alice Olson

        Yet the Republican geniuses think this is "great news for..."

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:04:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting he can't break out a lead, no? (0+ / 0-)

        I mean, these things can take time, but all things considered, shouldn't he be leading outside the margin of error in a big way...somewhere?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 10:13:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The biggest notables in that stuff... (5+ / 0-)

      ...is the admission of slippage in Florida, and the non-admission of massive amounts of independent expenditure ads attacking Obama.

      The suggestion that the only ads helping Romney are his own campaign's reveals the whole bit as pure spin.

      Same goes for the claim Romney would win the election today.  They're either delusional or knowingly lying.  I say the latter, I doubt they're stupid enough for the former.

      On favorables, I take issue with you take, conspiracy, it's pretty clear Romney did recover somewhat if you look at a two-month horizon.  But the recovery stopped some weeks ago and then stalled, and he's now sitting slightly underwater, instead of deep underwater as before.  NBC didn't show his favorables falling, the change from the previous was just meaningless noise.  And Q-poll shows clearly declining favorables for Mitt only in Florida, where this guy Halperin quoted admitted slippage.

      I feel great about Obama's standing right now.  Every month that he hangs in there without a slip in the battlegrounds, the better his chances.  If we can stay where we are heading into the debates, I think we win.  I don't think Mitt can survive three debates against Obama.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:21:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Norman Solomon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, Alice Olson, KingofSpades

    I was so glad to see Norman Solomon throw in the towel. I had a close relative with that name who was opposition leader in the Bahamas for a while. I found it distracting every time I heard this other guy mentioned. I also note there's no Wiki entry for 'my' Norman Solomon. I guess I should write one!

    Language professors HATE me!

    by Zornorph on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:55:06 AM PDT

  •  OK-01? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson

    I know nothing about this one, just curious -- saw the article on Huffington Post that a T-bagger picked off the R incumbent. Is there any hope of a pick-up here, or is it a deep deep Republican district so they are guaranteed a wingnut in Congress?

    •  Deep deep red (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alice Olson

      No way (or the most miniscule of miniscule chances) we can pick this up. It's Oklahoma after all!

      •  I'd tend to agree but it was Obama's 2nd strongest (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alice Olson

        district in the state, IIRC.  Not that that's saying much, since he lost every county in the state.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:37:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is a 99% Obama precinct in Tulsa (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Alice Olson

          supposedly.

          Olson looks like a really good candidate, but it will be tough.

          27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:58:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There are several 90%+ Obama precincts in (5+ / 0-)

            predominantly African-American North Tulsa, along with a number of lean Dem white precincts in the urban core area. However, that doesn't mean much since the suburbs are much more populous than either of these areas and are blood red (Obama lost them by something like 75-25 on average in 2008).

            Tulsa may be trending Democratic ever so slowly, but it's trend is not as strong as OKC's and is from a less friendly base. Although the city of Tulsa itself will probably be lean-dem and majority-minority before long, it would probably be at least 20 or 30 years before the Tulsa-centered congressional district could elect a Democrat under current trends.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:26:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What about OK-05? (0+ / 0-)

              Any chance that it elects a Democrat? Obviously OKC's trend is strong, but can it overcome the red areas around it?

              •  It's moving faster but it'll still be a while (4+ / 0-)

                and unfortunately, since it will probably won't be until the 2020s that the OKC district could be competitive, the legislature would probably just crack Democratic strength in redistrciting by removing majority black and hispanic areas in putting them in the uber-Republican Western Oklahoma district.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 09:47:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, in the Republican's defense (gasp!) (0+ / 0-)

                  The 2001 Redistricting map (Democratic trifecta) and 2011 map (Republican trifecta) were just about identical.

                  But then again who knows what happens in 2021.

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                  by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 28, 2012 at 05:14:45 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  A teabagger picked off another (0+ / 0-)

      Rep. Sullivan was considered to be the most conservative guy in the House, including Michelle Bachmann and the 2010 teabaggers who won red districts like TN-04. In fact, he's pretty darn odious. So the district is used to electing far-right representatives, and will elect another. It's a R+16 district, and has far less ticket splitting than the winnable OK-02 (which at R+14 is the second-reddest district occupied by a Democrat).

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 11:05:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Massachusetts (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, JBraden, itskevin

    I can't see Brown carrying the state in a presidential year; the massive Obama-Brown ticket splitting he'd need seems nearly impossible to me. If he were up in '14, I think he'd stand a much better chance.

  •  WTF Massachusetts? (0+ / 0-)

    Why would you vote for a Republican at this day and age?

  •  Glad that the DSCC is going all in for Heidi (0+ / 0-)

    Unlike Nebraska (and sadly, possibly Mizzou), this is one that we CAN win.

    The heads exploding on Fixed News will just make a Heitkamp victory even sweeter.

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