Everyone is talking about this presidential race as a close race. And the polls back them up.
Frankly, I'll be disappointed if Obama doesn't win in a major landslide, one that has Republicans asking what's the matter with Kansas.
Read the flip for my reasons Obama should win in a landslide and why we should be disappointed if he doesn't.
I NEVER imagined that Mitt-A-Sketch could be the GOP nominee. I thought this could only happen if the other GOP candidates were all abducted by aliens. I expected his candidacy to flame out much like that of Rudy "Sex On the City" Giuliani in the 2008 campaign. Giuliani had start out with the most name recognition, the most money, and the most votes in the early polling. Of course, as we now know, the Sex On the City scandal torpedoed his candidacy. If it weren't for that, he would have been torpedoed by his positions on social issues (for gay rights, pro-choice, for gun control, etc.), or he would have been torpedoed by Today Show interview footage of him blaming OUR TROOPS for the 380 tons of stolen explosives in Iraq.
Just like Giuliani 4 years earlier, Mitt-A-Sketch started off with the most name recognition, the most money, the most votes in the early polling, and a record of having positions on social issues out-of-step with his party.
NOBODY I know feels fired up by Mitt-A-Sketch. All of the GOP voters I know are fired up by Ron Paul. To this day, I'm not sure who voted for Mitt-A-Sketch for the nomination. Maybe there are secret lizard people who dwell underground and only come out to vote for Mitt-A-Sketch. :)
My reasons for not expecting Mitt-A-Sketch to be the nominee were:
1. From MASSACHUSETTS! The GOP has spent so much time insisting that Massachusetts isn't part of "real" America and is a corrupt and lawless state where married gay couples lynch heterosexuals, every street corner has a drive-thru abortion clinic, and everybody has wild, orgasmic sex in the middle of the street. The GOP insisted that being from Massachusetts was an automatic disqualification for Michael Dukakis and John Kerry. I just couldn't believe that the GOP would nominate someone from MASSACHUSETTS after spending so much time demonizing the state, and I just couldn't believe that GOP primary voters would want him as the nominee.
2. Massachusetts flip-flopper: Mitt-A-Sketch was for expanding gay rights before he was against it, was for abortion rights before he was against it, and never before he suddenly became a lifelong hunter. The GOP spent the 2004 race insisting that being a Massachusetts flip-flopper disqualified John Kerry from being president. I couldn't believe that GOP primary voters picked Mitt-A-Sketch as their presidential nominee.
3. His record is too liberal: I couldn't believe that GOP voters would want someone with a questionable record on their hot-button social issues when they had Rick "Man On Dog" Santorum, Newt "Kids to Work" Gingrich, Rick "I forgot that third agency" Perry, and Michelle "No Census" Bachmann as alternatives. Yes, I know now that the big-shot right-wingers couldn't unite behind one candidate, but I was expecting them to drop out sooner.
4. No charisma: At least George W. Bush could offer the veneer of sincerity and the ability to relate to people. Mitt-A-Sketch doesn't even have this veneer, much less the actual attributes.
5. Let Detroit go bankrupt: 'Nuff said.
6. Gaffe machine: Corporations are people, my friend. Then there's the fact that he likes to fire people other than the Etch-A-Sketch strategist.
7. Skeletons in the closet: Mr. Dog on Car bullied a gay classmate and impersonated a state police trooper.
8. No base: Is ANYBODY fired up by Mitt-A-Sketch? At least Rick "Man On Dog" Santorum, Sarah Palin, and Michelle Bachmann had a cult following. I never saw any such following for Mitt-A-Sketch.
Given all this, I'm disappointed that Obama isn't leading Mitt-A-Sketch by a landslide. He should be leading in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida by double digits, and he should be well ahead in North Carolina. The talk shouldn't even be about which Obama states of 2008 Mitt-A-Sketch will win in 2012 but about which McCain states Mitt-A-Sketch will lose.
If Obama wins exactly the same states (and split Congressional districts) that he won in 2008, he'll win with 359 electoral votes. Adding Missouri (very close in 2008) and Montana (which Obama lost by only 3 percentage points) brings Obama to 372 electoral votes. Adding Arizona and Georgia brings him to 399 electoral votes. Adding in the Dakotas (lower tier battlegrounds of 2008), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District, and Texas brings us to 444 electoral votes. In the best case scenario, I can see Obama winning Alaska, Kansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Nebraska (state-wide but not the 3rd District), bringing the total to 474 electoral votes.
Thus, I'll be disappointed if Obama isn't re-elected with at least 474 electoral votes.
Obama is lucky that Mike Huckabee isn't running. Huckabee has charisma and sounds great. I wouldn't vote for Huckabee, but I can see him appealing to people who don't normally vote GOP. If Huckabee were the nominee instead of Mitt-A-Sketch, we'd be talking about Obama losing states that both John Kerry and Al Gore won.