Skip to main content

Alabama is about as solidly in the Republican column as it gets.

In fact, in 2008 John McCain carried Alabama with 60.4% of the vote to Obama's 38.8%.

John Kerry could do no better than 37% in 2004 and Al Gore drew only 42% in 2000.

So what's up with the latest poll in Alabama?

Republi­can presidential candidate Mitt Romney leads Demo­cratic President Barack Obama in the race for Ala­bama's nine electoral votes, according to poll results re­leased Friday. Asked for whom they would vote for president now, 51.3 percent of the sur­veyed Alabama voters said Romney, 36.4 percent said Obama and 12.3 percent said they didn't know or didn't reply. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percent.
Romney draws barely a majority of the state's vote? Just 51.3%? Seriously?

Granted, Romney's lead is 15 percentage points and he is certainly in no danger of losing Alabama. But given how much the right wing foams at the mouth over the mere mention of the president's name, why isn't Romney leading by much more?

Polling center director Gerald Johnson said he had expected Romney to fare better than he did in the poll. ''I thought he would be stronger than he is," John­son said.
No kidding.

It's obvious that not every white Southern voter has warmed up to Romney. One possible explanation is that the Mormon factor remains a factor, despite the attempts of the mainstream media to say it isn't.

It may very well be that come November those reluctant white voters will hold their noses and vote for a Mormon. Or they might just sit this one out.

That won't make a difference in Alabama, but it could very well make a difference in places like North Carolina, Florida and Missouri.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Who gets the rest of Alabama? George Wallace? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sunbro

    nm

    Please help to fight hunger with a donation to Feeding America.

    by MJB on Sat Jun 30, 2012 at 10:46:37 PM PDT

  •  You know the other side ... (10+ / 0-)

    ... is going to say "outlier." On the other hand, it is never too early to reinforce any perceived Republican enthusiasm gap. Moreover, an enthusiasm gap makes perfect sense.

    How could you be enthusiastic about this guy unless your name was Romney? Santorum was right one time, and that was his statement about Mitt Romney being the worst possible Republican to run against President Obama. He's a 1%-er and a vulture capitalist in the OWS Era, not a Tea Partier in the Tea Party Era, not a Fundie from the Bible Belt, not associated with the NRA for all the gun crazies, and he cannot relate to people who eat "Cheezy Grits," and that's almost all of the Republican base.

    Moreover, Romney has been seen to be taken to the woodshed by the President on immigration, gay rights, Detroit, Chen Guangchen, Iraq, bin Laden and ObamaCare. It's much harder to be enthusiastic for someone you perceive to be a loser.  

    Nearly all of the support he's got is based only on hatred for the President ginned up by Hannity, Rush, Palin and Rove.

    I would tip you, but the man took away my tips.

    by Tortmaster on Sat Jun 30, 2012 at 11:03:26 PM PDT

  •  I need to call my aunt. She lives in (8+ / 0-)

    Alabama (born and raised) and she's a staunch Democrat. Often when I talk to her she complains about all the racist Republicans she's surrounded by and how there's nobody to talk to about what's really going on in this country.

    For me, Mitt reminds me of Jeff Bridges in Starman. He's like an alien that hasn't read the entire manual. You know, he's going, "Nice to be in a place where the trees are the right size." -- Robin Williams on Letterman 26 Apr 2012

    by hungrycoyote on Sat Jun 30, 2012 at 11:51:02 PM PDT

  •  But the election in Mississippi could be close if (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal, HoundDog, quaoar

    there is a similar trend. McCain won there by only 170,000 votes in 2008. 56.2 to 43%. With all the craziness about women rights about a 1 or 2%.  about a 1 or 2 point increase in Latinos, Republicans messing with Medicare could be another 1 or 2% and a drop of about 1% for lack of enthusiasm. We may have a close race in Mississippi, and Texas, and after some may have been shamed by Rick Perry. And an increase in Latinos and women. I can't recall what the vote was in Texas. I think Obama lost by 9 points. It's may be close in Texas.

    •  McCain 55.5% Obama 43.7% in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

      by dopper0189 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 04:01:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Those were the Texas number I posted, on MS (0+ / 0-)

        Latinos were 4% in 2008 up from 1% in 2004. Latinos would need to be about 8% of the voting population in Mississippi before you can talk about flipping the state. Even with MS large black population (37% black, 34% black voters) this was Obama 2nd worse state with whites (11%). Kerry only got 14% (Kerry got 19% of whites in Alabama, 24% of whites in Louisiana).

        By the way on the Latino numbers. NC is about 8% Latino, Georgia is 9%. But Hispanic voters are only expected to be about 5% in both states this year.

        -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

        by dopper0189 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 04:17:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  "Really don't mind if you sit this one out." (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sue B, Matt Z

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 01:48:06 AM PDT

  •  While I have absolutely no use for polls, (0+ / 0-)

    since the only one that counts is the one taken on election day when voters have their say, the use of polling to "prepared the ground" for a military campaign-like assault on the electorate is actually despicable.
    How can voters be expected to take their obligation to vote seriously after months of being disparaged themselves by the political operatives who hold them beneath contempt? If they are resentful and vengeful come election day, who can blame them?
    Focusing on the candidates, as if they were in charge of their own hiring, may be designed to disguise the contempt for the public that pervades the political propaganda industry, but most people can sense when they are being dissed.
    Liberals tout how much they care for the people and then play on their apparent animosities.  That's just as hypocritical as Republicans making promises they can't keep.  Authoritarians preach hell on earth and damnation, but history tells us they're incompetent to deliver. If austerity is on the menu, doesn't it make sense to hire the fellow who won't deliver? The result of a double negative is a positive.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage" People to Wall Street, "let our money go."

    by hannah on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 01:56:11 AM PDT

  •  This is just a reversion to the mean (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice, rmx2630

    1) Kerry got 19% of the white vote, Obama only got 10% (his worse showing in the nation). I expect about 1/3 to 1/2 of the white voters who voted for Kerry bu not Obama to now vote for Obama because they are more "comfortable" with a black President.

    2) Obama on the ticket got the black vote to jump from 25% in 2004 to 29% in 2008. Hispanics we 4% in 2008 should be about 5% this year, because the Alabama GOP has passed "Arizona style laws" the support here should go from 66% in 2008 to about 75% this year (what Obama is polling in AZ among Latinos).

    3) The same regions that demonstrated the most ant-Obama raced based voting, have a high likely hood of also being highly anti-Mormon.  This region is what Nate Silver called the Highlands and is basically Appalachia + the Ozarks.  This is the region that Obama performed substantially worse with white voters generally and white Democrats in particular than Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. It's also the region that based on Google searches looked up the words "race" and "Muslim" the most in the fall of 2008. There are studies on the Google searches, it's interesting stuff.  Alabama both touches this region. Many of these voters may just stay home if they have to decide between a black guy, and a rich Wall St. Mormon wishy washy Yankee!!!

    4) My last point is that Romney is a Mormon and a Yankee. This should knock a few points off of Evangelical white turn out.

    This isn't enough to turn the state blue by any means. But it does mean that Obama will poll about where Gore did in 2000 at 42% in November.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 04:10:05 AM PDT

  •  Well, if SE Huntsville is anything to go by, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice, Musial

    there are a lot of Paul supporters still.  

    Republicans: if they only had a heart.

    by leu2500 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 05:15:46 AM PDT

  •  The 'Bradley' Effect (4+ / 0-)

    Whereas folks suggested in polling that Barak Obama's skin color did not factor into their voting decision, I am of the opinion that the Mormon factor is a similar issue.

    Voters will tell you it doesn't matter, but when the time comes to vote - it matters.

    There is a political wisdom that suggests the following:  People rarely show up to vote against a candidate, they show up and vote for a candidate.

    So, where does this get us - for every Democrat who does not show up on election day to vote for President Obama, there may well be a Republican who is unwilling to vote for Mitt Romney.

    As pointed out in the Diary - it might not matter in Alabama (a solid red state), but what happens in those swing states?  The swing states are, I suspect, less religious.  The Bain attacks appeal to the working class voters and are likely to cause Mitt Romney more worries (because Rick Santorum, Rick Perry & Newt Gingrich told us so).

  •  Most of that 12% undecided will break Romney. (0+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 06:33:12 AM PDT

  •  As a resident of greater Birmingham, I can say (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gary Norton

    the Obama hate is as strong as ever.  This is even with people I know who I view as "moderate" in their political views (for this state).  Lots of  "going Gault" talk here to avoid the coming socialism, gov't control that will destroy the country now that the ACA was upheld. Even mention of secession at some point. Native Southerners never stray too far from the "War of Southern Independence." It's always in the back of their minds as a way to avoid progress.

    But there really isn't love for Romney.  He's merely the tool to be used to rid us of Obama. So the poll may say 51% now, but on election day that will be 62 - 65%, in my opinion.

    In addition to strong Republican turnout, I  think many white 2008 Obama voters will shift  to Romney because of the economy. That's a trend I fear will happen across the country.

  •  It's 51% now, will be much higher after the (0+ / 0-)

    inevitable purge of likely Democratic voters in November.

    GOP = Greedy One Percent

    by Palafox on Sun Jul 01, 2012 at 08:23:39 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site