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Leading Off:

MI-11: Goodbye, Thaddeus McCotter. The Republican congressman called it quits in a late Friday news dump:

Today I have resigned from the office of United States Representative for Michigan's 11th Congressional District.

After nearly 26 years in elected office, this past nightmarish month and a half have, for the first time, severed the necessary harmony between the needs of my constituency and of my family. As this harmony is required to serve, its absence requires I leave.

McCotter also assailed recent "calumnies, indignities, and deceits" in his statement, suggesting that he is planning to exit as Thad the Victim.

For those unaware of those recent events, McCotter's downfall began with a bizarre and quixotic bid for the White House, which was essentially over before it began.

Then, in a shocking and humiliating turn of events, his attempt to land softly back in his freshly gerrymandered House seat fell apart when he failed to secure enough valid signatures to qualify for the August primary ballot. What was an embarrassment became a matter for the courts when allegations of fraud popped up in his ballot petitions. McCotter briefly pondered a write-in bid for his seat, before deciding early last month to abandon that effort.

Then came the almost comical revelation just a day earlier that McCotter had, with his presidential campaign in tatters, turned his attention not to his work as a U.S. Representative, but rather to penning a script for an TV sitcom/variety show starring himself and featuring offensive fratboy "humor." This last revelation, apparently, was the final straw.

McCotter's 11th district, made redder thanks to Republican efforts during redistricting, was already an open seat due to McCotter's failure to qualify for the ballot and subsequent decision to drop his write-in effort. It's unclear if a special election will be necessitated by McCotter's resignation, given that we are now just four months away from the general election. It's possible that a special could be consolidated with the November general election, which would mean the winner would serve only the final two months of McCotter's term.

Meanwhile, the regularly-scheduled primary is fast approaching next month. The local GOP establishment has rallied around the write-in candidacy of former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, since tea party devotee Kerry Bentivolio is the only Republican actually on the ballot and no one seems to think very highly of him. Physician Syed Taj is considered the frontrunner on the Democratic side. McCotter's abrupt resignation doesn't directly impact this race, but it certainly doesn't make Republicans look any better. But at this point, they're probably happy to have him gone—and it's not like Democrats are going to miss him, either. (Steve Singiser, with David Nir)

Senate:

CT-Sen: Dem Rep. Chris Murphy is up with his first ad of the election cycle, a cute positive spot in which he and his wife keep getting interrupted on a trip to the supermarket by constituents who want to talk about issues important to them—and finishes with Murphy promising that he'll "never get tired of listening."

FL-, NM-, NV-, WI-Sen: American Commitment, a new Republican "charity" (you know, a non-profit 501(c)(4) that doesn't have to disclose either its donors or spending), is launching ads attacking four Democratic Senate candidates over their support for the Affordable Care Act. The Wisconsin spot is reportedly backed by a $500K buy; figures for the others are not available. All but the Nevada ad are available at the link.

IL-Sen: Edward McCelland at NBC 5 Chicago takes an early look at possible candidates who could replace veteran Dem Sen. Dick Durbin if he retires in 2014—he'd turn 70 not long after election day. McClelland gives quick capsule run-downs on seven Democrats and four Republicans who might potentially run. Click through for all the names.

TX-Sen: Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz is out with what I believe is the first poll of the GOP Senate runoff, an internal from WPA Opinion Research that shows him up 49-40 over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. As Roll Call's Abby Livingston points out, however, polling a runoff taking place in the Texas mid-summer heat is a tricky business, especially since Lone Star runoffs traditionally have taken place in the spring. But, as ever, the key thing to watch here is whether Dewhurst releases competing numbers... though pro-Dewhurst groups put out several polls before the primary that suggested he'd score over 50%, something which most emphatically did not happen.

I also expect another massive barrage of third-party spending on Dewhurst's behalf, which could change the calculus—though Cruz's allies may be ready to return fire. So far, though, it's mostly been penny-ante stuff. And Dewhurst has run a couple of ads, but Cruz hasn't gone back on the air yet. That, too, should change soon.

WI-Sen: The Hotline's Sean Sullivan reports that ultra-wealthy businessman Eric Hovde (whose net worth may be as much as $240 million) is throwing down another $1.5 million for a five-week broadcast TV buy that would take him all the way to the August 14 GOP primary. That's on top of the several mil he's already spent. No word yet on whether any new ads will be thrown into the mix, though I'd guess some will be.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: As I imagined it would, the issue of Medicaid expansion as part of the Affordable Care Act has indeed made its way on to the campaign trail. As you know, the Supreme Court's ruling made this expansion, which is intended to provide insurance to low-income individuals, optional rather than mandatory. That makes it an issue for both governors (Republicans have almost universally said they plan to reject this federal aid, Democrats the opposite) and gubernatorial candidates. One state where this is playing out is New Hampshire: The GOP field has predictably lined up against it, but where the two Democrats appear to be reacting differently. (Outgoing Dem Gov. John Lynch hasn't made up his mind yet.)

Democratic candidate Maggie Hassan, of Exeter, took the Lynch position of not committing to either side.

"There has long been a bipartisan interest in New Hampshire in helping ensure that working families can afford health insurance because it is right for families and because businesses are paying higher insurance premiums because of the shifting of the costs of the uninsured," Hassan said.

Hassan's opponent, meanwhile, seems like she's in favor of the expansion:
Democratic candidate Jackie Cilley, of Barrington, said that while she would continue to review the details, she expects she would move forward with expanding Medicaid.

"As governor, I'm confident that I'll be able to work with the Legislature and our representatives in D.C. to make sure that all the ACA reforms, including Medicaid expansion, serve the citizens of New Hampshire," Cilley said in a statement.

In a later statement, Hassan sounded a bit more open, with a spokesman saying she "would work with the Legislature and businesses to determine how best to use the federal dollars available to extend affordable health insurance to more of our hard-working citizens." I'm not certain whether "federal dollars" means "Medicaid expansion," though.

House:

NC-08: The other day, we talked about Dem Rep. Larry Kissell's intent to flip-flop on repealing the Affordable Care Act. (First he was against repeal; now he's for it—not the easiest thing to spin.) But did he also potentially hurt himself with another recent high-profile, controversial vote? A group called the North Carolina 8th Congressional District Black Leadership Caucus just announced it would withhold its endorsement from Kissell, with both his planned ACA vote and his vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder (the nation's first African-American AG) in contempt of Congress apparently at issue.

And as The Hotline notes, a March polling memo for Kissell specifically suggested that improving his standing among minorities was a key to victory. While dinging Holder might help Kissell distance himself from national Democrats, if it comes at the cost of alienating black voters, that could prove very counter-productive.

NY-13: Whoa. I'm a pretty jaded guy when it comes to campaign chicanery, but these new revelations about the NY-13 Democratic primary brought to light by the Daily News are shocking even to me. This is some seriously banana republic bullshit:

Vote counting in the fierce congressional battle between incumbent Charlie Rangel and his insurgent challenger Adriano Espaillat is no longer a matter of the usual incompetence of the Board of Elections.

Troubling signs have now emerged that some officials at the board crossed the line in an all-out effort by the Democratic Party establishment to ensure a Rangel victory, and that the board's staff wrongly disqualified hundreds of paper ballots.

So what is the News talking about?
"We've found 192 people in Manhattan whose affidavit ballots were disqualified but who show up as Democratic voters on the rolls," said Aneiry Batista, coordinator of the recount operation for the Espaillat campaign. "And we're not even halfway through those that were disqualified."

Batista, and the whole of Espaillat's camp, was even more astonished by what they found in the Bronx—170 disqualified ballots on which poll workers failed to write down the Election and Assembly District in which the vote was cast.

That's something state law requires poll workers to do, board spokeswoman Valerie Vazquez confirmed.

That's only the half of it. This is just as stunning:
The News has learned that on Saturday morning, June 23, Timothy Gay, the deputy chief clerk for Manhattan's Board of Elections—and the person currently supervising the count of the votes in the Manhattan part of the 13th Congressional District—held a meeting in Harlem with key Rangel campaign operatives, and with district leaders supporting Rangel. [...]

Traditionally, district leaders are the ones who get to name the poll workers that the board will hire for their districts on Election Day.

Yet a half-dozen district leaders who supported Espaillat told me this week that the Board of Elections rejected virtually all the people they recommended as poll workers.

Gay doesn't deny participating, though he claims no Rangel operatives were in attendance—but he also added that he showed up "on [his] own free time," which means he knows it was unseemly at best and extremely wrong at worst for a Board of Elections official to appear at an event like this. And if the board truly was in the tank for Rangel—as it really appears it was—then I'm just beyond disgusted. For the supposed guardians of the democratic process to allow themselves to be corrupted and take sides is an extreme and appalling low.

Over the weekend, though, the count of paper ballots concluded, leaving Rangel with a 990-vote lead. That probably means Espaillat won't bother forging ahead, especially since if he wants to run for re-election as state senator, he has to file by this Thursday. We'll know more at the next hearing before the judge now overseeing the count, which is Wednesday. But it would be sad indeed if all of this wound up getting swept under the rug.

Grab Bag:

Maps: Here's a map of the blue states and red states that looks pretty much as expected... except it's not a map of any sort of political activity. Instead, the blue counties are the ones where people tweet more about "beer" than about "church," and the red counties are ones where people tweet about "church" rather than "beer." In the complicated dance of psychographics and microtargeting, it couldn't actually be this simple... could it? (David Jarman)

Polltopia: This Slate article by Sasha Issenberg is interesting in a couple ways... one, it describes the challenges and hazards of polling in Mexico (where pollsters actually did a reasonably good job of predicting last weekend's presidential election). And two, it wonders aloud about whether what's happening in Mexico—an increased reliance on face-to-face polling as a response to the increasing difficulty in finding willing poll participants by phone—might find its way into America as well, where the same polling method problems are mounting. (Issenberg's answer: no, probably not, given the expense involved... except for those willing to pay a premium for accuracy.) (David Jarman)

Texas: Dreaminonempty has his first post up as our new Featured Writer here at Daily Kos Elections. He's aggregated a few months' worth of DailyKos/SEIU national polling data and plucked out all the Texas voters... and reached a very surprising conclusion: Obama and Romney are tied in the Lone Star State! That's not at all likely to hold for election day, as dreamin explains, but click through for a deep dive into the data.

Third Parties Using some slightly dusty data (about a month old), Gallup looked at the potential third-party prospects for the presidential election, and found none of them performing rather well: Libertarian Gary Johnson scored best at just 3 percent. They also found that their presence helped Barack Obama (he led by 7 points over Mitt Romney).

But, in the same piece, they also offered some evidence to something we here at Daily Kos Elections have long posited: Third-party candidates tend to poll far better than they actually perform on election day. Gallup looked back to some luminaries like Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and John Anderson, and found that they wound up getting nowhere near the numbers they polled even in the days leading up to the election, to say nothing of where they were the summer before the election. For those fond of nostalgia, remember that Perot led at one point in presidential polling in 1992, and Anderson was north of 20 percent!

This finding, of course, has implications well beyond the top of the ticket. We saw the impact a third-party candidate being included in polling can have just the other day when SurveyUSA's poll of the North Carolina gubernatorial election showed a two-point race, but also showed the Libertarian (Barbara Howe) getting 7 percent of the vote. This study would seem to strongly suggest that Howe will not garner anywhere close to that 7 percent come November. (Steve Singiser)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  SCOTUS: If Jan Crawford's sources are correct (8+ / 0-)

    Roberts has irked the other conservative justices:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    It also corroborates a theory I had that Roberts tried to convince Kennedy to go with him to make the decision look less contentious, but it was no dice.  Also, according to her, the reason why the dissent reads like a majority opinion for the first 3/4ths is that the conservative justices hoped to get Roberts back.

    An interesting and concise read.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:07:01 AM PDT

    •  Actually, now that I think about it, my theory (7+ / 0-)

      was that Roberts was hoping to form a broad coalition to just strike the individual mandate, but the other conservatives would not have it.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:08:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That was mine, too... (8+ / 0-)

        What the right wingers wanted was a bridge too far for Roberts, and having sided with them on Citizens United and gotten burned on it, he had enough and told them to screw themselves.  It should be interesting to see how this plays out in the future.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:33:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think that's right (5+ / 0-)

        All the political chatter about court politics is way too cynical, and inaccurate in that regard.

        Justices always have legal reasons for doing what they do, even if their view of the law is shaped up front by their politics.

        In Roberts' case, he didn't uphold the ACA for external political reasons.  He had to have a legal problem with his fellow conservatives' arguments, or else he would've stuck with them.  And a logical legal problem he could've had was severability, that he never could get a persuasive explanation from anyone why the mandate wasn't severable.

        An alternative logical conclusion is that Crawford's reporting is just wrong, and Roberts all along that the mandate a valid tax.  That doesn't mean Crawford is inaccurate in reporting what her sources tell her, but it means what she's been told is a mix of incomplete and inaccurate information that painted an erroneous picture for her.  That wouldn't surprise me, as SCOTUS is the most tight-lipped institution in the federal government, making leaked information suspect.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:21:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is clear evidence from his questions that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          He considered the ACA mandate a tax and therefore constitutional even though he thought it fell afoul of the Commerce Clause.  I read an analysis of his questions that indicated this was his thinking at oral argument.  That he tried and failed to get Kennedy is a reasonable supposition.

          The scientific uncertainty doesn't mean that climate change isn't actually happening.

          by Mimikatz on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:49:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Evidence, yes, but... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, KingofSpades

            ...I doubt he had made up his mind at that point.

            I think Roberts was seriously in play, seriously open to persuasion, and his fellow conservatives just failed to persuade him on anything but the commerce clause.

            But you're right that what he said at oral argument suggested he was open to the "mandate is a tax" argument that he eventually fully embraced.  Toobin and so many other court watchers and political reporters at the time dismissed it as Roberts playing "devil's advocate" just so he could more effectively dismiss the tax argument later, but I always thought it folly to assume such a thing.

            Ultimately oral argument doesn't tell us how Justices will vote, or why.  Which I said at the time, and both the ACA decision and the Arizona immigration decision proved the point.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:07:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting, but I don't trust Jan Crawford's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      "sources" or her "analysis."  She's a GOP mouthpiece and nothing more.

      Plus, she looks like a slightly less-demonic clone of Michele Bachmann.

    •  rec'd for using the word "irked" n/t (0+ / 0-)

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:29:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thad who? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superpole, bythesea

    The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

    by raboof on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:07:32 AM PDT

  •  Mario Cuomo talks up Andrew for higher office (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, dc1000

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:38:25 AM PDT

    •  Can't blame him (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, dc1000, KingofSpades

      He's his own son!

      Who wouldn't talk up their own son?

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:22:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We don't hear a thing from Sandra Lee lately (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      (Andrew's live-in lady).

      She's about as controversial as it gets on the Food Network -- and I suspect someone with more (current) name recognition than Andrew.

      (ref http://en.wikipedia.org/..._(cook)#Critical_reaction -- note the reaction to her Kwanzaa cakes)

      Have Andrew's advisors told Sandra to turn it off? Or will these projected upcoming new shows (ref http://www.thebraiser.com/... ) make it worse?

      I know, I know, political wives aren't supposed to be --that-- important. But I think Lee will have more name recognition and more tongues a-wagging during a probable '16 Cuomo candidacy than Hillary did in '92.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:38:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't he know that's counterproductive? (0+ / 0-)

      Not just in general, but because Mario Cuomo is one of those people who's vaguely respected rather than taken entirely seriously.

      Romney '12: Bully for America!

      by Rich in PA on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:47:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the NYCong-13 (Rangel) voting irregularities (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      are now "owned" by Gov Cuomo.  If he ever runs for national office, the apparent corruption / shenanigans in the vote counting for the NY Cong District 13 contest will rightly be laid at Cuomo's feet (and around his neck) - unless he does something to formally investigate it. Much of America outside of the NY City area dislikes NYC and considers it corrupt, decadent, crime-ridden, etc.  Recall former Pres Ford's attitude in the 1970s -"Drop Dead NYC".  Recall Goldwater's commercial cutting off the northeast and letting it float out to sea.  Much of America does not need much more reason to dislike and be suspicious of things related to NY City and NY state.  The NY CD-13 vote counting irregularities remind people of the Gore-Bush Florida vote counting smells.  Cuomo needs to show leadership soon on this, launch an impartial formal investigation, or that smell and taint will be associated with Cuomo should he ever run for office outside of NY state.

    •  I want to take Mario Cuomo and Birch Bayh (4+ / 0-)

      out for a drink to find out what they really think. No doubt they love their sons and all that, but something tells me that you'd hear the political equivalent of, "My son is working on his fourth graduate degree, has no job, and still lives in my basement!" versus "Oh yeah, my son works as an interpretative dancer. Seriously! You can't believe the shit I'm getting at the lodge. I kind of want to tell the guys he's in prison!"

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:23:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Any News on when we'll hear (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    Obama's campaign money totals will come out? Since we got Romney's today.

    Also, Donnelly raised 900k.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:42:19 AM PDT

  •  For the record, it should be noted that (0+ / 0-)

    there are THREE Democratic candidates for Governor in N.H.
    Bill Kennedy from Danbury seems largely unknown to the political establishment.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    He does, however, show up at community events and has an entourage.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage"

    People to Wall Street, "let our money go."

    by hannah on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:47:48 AM PDT

  •  Good Riddance (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries

    to McCotter... let's see if MI voters can replace him with someone better; I wonder

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:35:56 AM PDT

  •  McCotter's constituents were unworthy of him (0+ / 0-)

    They're just workaday "solid citizens" but he's a Rock God.  

    Romney '12: Bully for America!

    by Rich in PA on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:48:05 AM PDT

  •  I just realized that Mitt Romney's campaign is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy

    as much about him rubbing against big money as Sarah Palin's inclusion on the McCain ticket was about her getting to put on fancy clothes.

    I think I'm going to be ill.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right. I'm riding in the Tour de Cure. You can donate here.

    by darthstar on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:59:40 AM PDT

  •  McCrory raised 2.2 million (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bfen

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:00:02 AM PDT

  •  Don't call his Presidential campaign "quixotic"... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Khun David, gabjoh

    ... a year from now he won't be any less the President of the United States than Newt Gingrich, John Huntsman or Mitt Romney.

  •  E-mail from Kathy Hochul (8+ / 0-)
    We are still adding up our final numbers, but I wanted you to hear it straight from me--we shattered our fundraising goal for the quarter by raising over a half-million dollars!

    Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:09:03 AM PDT

  •  Ras (0+ / 0-)

    +1 Romney today,  even after three days of Ras Polling since the jobs report, it only moves one point then the jobs report may not mean as much as the Acela corridor thinks it does.

    •  It doesn't mean that at all because... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, itskevin

      ...Rasmussen is not a valid pollster, and their numbers should be disregarded up front.

      They are entertaining, and I still look at their public numbers for entertainment.  But that's all they are:  entertainment, not valid information.

      Gallup has serious problems, but, unlike Ras, they're at least an honest effort, and therefore worthy of a serious glance.  And Gallup's longer-term trend is always in the right ballpark, even though short-term and sometimes medium-term movements are meaningless.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:07:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McCotter the narcissist (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, dufffbeer, bumiputera, blw
    As this harmony is required to serve, its absence requires I leave.
    Yeah buddy, well here is what your inability to just finish out your term leaves us with: a special election doubling up with the regular election to finish the last two months of the term you were elected for, BUT that will be in the OLD (pre-redistricting) 11th, which means many voters will be voting in two different Congressional districts -- in the same election!

    Not only that, but local municipal clerks can re-align voting precincts after re-districting, which means the old 11th boundary now runs THROUGH some precincts, requiring the clerks in those areas to prepare two different ballots in those precincts, and election inspectors to look up each voter's address to see which OLD district they lived in before handing them a ballot -- further snarling an already lengthy process, the state legislature having added school board elections to the even-year Nov. ballot for the first time.

    Couldn't you just, like, not show up for a few months? No one would miss you. Really.

    Mark E. Miller // Kalamazoo Township Trustee // MI 6th District Democratic Chair

    by memiller on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:29:36 AM PDT

  •  Obama and the Tax Cut Extension (0+ / 0-)

    This really isn't news at all, because from the articles I read last night, it sounds basically like the proposal he's been backing all along: an extension of the tax cuts for those making less than $250,000 in income and ending the rest. Of course, people have short attention spans, and because of that and the fact that he's been accused of everything, probably including raising taxes on everyone, this might seem like a new and welcome development. Will it play as such?

    I've been critical of him for not doing certain things (as much) as I think he should be doing then, but at the same time, I've thought that I might be expecting too much too soon. It's still summer and the process of defining Romney's character hasn't ended. I think it was Jon Chait who said the fall wil see the more policy-oriented attacks and sharp contrasts. I hope so. Unless I've missed something, there's been precisely nothing about Romney's plan to raise taxes on those at the bottom while slashing them for those at the top (mostly through, I think, eliminating credits). It's a slightly wonky argument, but given his struggles with white working class voters, you'd think it'd be front and center. Will it be in a few months?

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:35:30 AM PDT

  •  Holy freaking crap. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sapelcovits, bythesea, bfen

    Elizabeth Warren raised 8.6 million in June! Just saw it on RedRacingHorses, no link yet.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:40:44 AM PDT

    •  Wow! When does the Brown backers cut him loose (0+ / 0-)

      figuring he can't compete in Mass with the money being equal.  It would have been one thing to try and swamp Warren with a huge money advantage, but money being equal it is too hard a uphill climb.  

      When does the "no outside money" pledge get thrown out by Brown and he goes begging for Rove money?  

      •  One thing someone brought up (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bythesea

        was that there are hardly any undecideds left in MA.

        I'm figuring most of this money will be put to GOTV stuff, because they've already had TV ads for a while now, and how many more 30 second ads will it take with both candidates having over 10 million on hand, before people start burning their TV's in MA lol

        20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

        by aggou on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:50:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, most of the money will go to TV ads (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          That's what big money is for:  TV ads.

          Whatever Massachusetts voters have been seeing so far is nothing compared to what's coming.

          The only question is how good an attack message against Brown will Warren's campaign team put together.  If they come up with something good, that probably dooms him.  But money can be wasted, one cannot assume a big warchest automatically leads to victory......the message still has to be effective.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:09:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Rick Perry officially says he wont implement (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea, bumiputera

    a state based exchange or take Medicaid money. Texas, I believe, has the highest % of uninsured of any state.

    Some of this may be pre-election posturing, but even if Obama wins, I think you will see potential 2016 contenders continue opposition to these issues to win over GOP voters.

    Note, even Jan Brewer seems to be in favor of a state based exchange. And I think "moderates" like Snyder, who have no chance in a GOP primary, are looking to implement the same.

    Christie, Haley, Jindal, and Perry who have been talked about as 2016 contenders(yeah, Perry says he may run again) are against it. Will be interesting to see what govs like Susana Martinez and Bill Haslem.  

    •  Rick the Dick (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb

      It's one thing not to set up the exchanges, the feds can do that.  It's another not to agree to the Medicaid expansion.  It's not, well, doesn't strike me as the Christian thing to do.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:03:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Exchanges for GOP are... (4+ / 0-)

      ...tails Obama wins, heads GOP loses.

      They can refuse to do state-run exchanges as a protest, but then HHS runs the exchange in those states, and it's all exclusive federal control which they hate.

      Or they can surrender and have state-run exchanges so at least they can control them.

      What's funny is that the exchanges weren't even among the more controversial parts of the bill when debated.  But they have become a vehicle of protest since enactment.

      Medicaid is different, GOP Governors can really screw poor people without any fallback for those folks.  So that's a real knife to wield......although, again, they're really hurting only themselves.  But at least it's not a situation where the feds come in and do what the states won't.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:13:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, that's why it is baffling to me (0+ / 0-)

        that GOP governors wont set up an exchange. I dont see the controversy in it, and I guess, some GOP governors, like Brewer, dont either. It's just about being anti-Obama.

        The NY Times, I think, had this article recently about how some Republicans, like Orrin Hatch, are saying that only people in a state based exchange can get tax credits for buying healthcare, because the law didnt tax credits for a federal exchange. It seems ridiculous, the head of the IRS, a Bush appointee, even disagrees. But I bet that is the next lawsuit. Since they couldnt win on constitutional grounds, they will try and block millions from getting healthcare on a technicality.  

        •  They're probably just covering their bases (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, DCCyclone

          so that if Romney wins they've never been on record supporting this piece of Obamacare. That could help them in party primaries in the future.

          If Obama wins, most of them will just cave on the exchange piece, as I doubt they have deep philosophical differences with it, and the feds would just set it up anyway if they decline.

          •  Yeah, could be (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, DCCyclone

            the deadline for setting up the exchange is Jan 1 2013, but I think if Obama wins re-election, HHS will push that back, several months, to give states one last chance at doing that.

            •  Perry better be careful with the medical industry (0+ / 0-)

              in Texas.

              Between the Houston Medical Center, Baylor, and UT-Southwestern Med. Ctr. in Dallas, and others, there are a boatload of Nobel Chemistry/Biology/Medicine/etc. prizewinners, and the research that they attract to their institutions, that will not stand for Perry playing politics with the hospitals and medical care in Texas.  'Course, Perry may figure out some extortionist scheme of "pay to play" and get some quid pro quo out of them in order to stop being a Dick.

              Hide and watch, as they say here in Texas.

              Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

              by tom 47 on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:54:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  The Controversy In The Exchanges.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, DCCyclone

          ....is that Obama supports them.

    •  And Since Virtually Every Republican Governor..... (0+ / 0-)

      ....fancies him or herself a "potential 2016 contender", don't expect to see a single Republican Governor play ball here.

  •  Obama-Romney '12 parallel to Schroder-Stoiber '02? (0+ / 0-)

    There's a reference at RRH to the German Federal election of '02 (h/t Gladstone) as a parallel to our upcoming election this year.

    Taking a look at the Wikipedia page for the election, http://en.wikipedia.org/... , suggests some striking parallels. Of course the systems are different, but Schroder had a troubled economy, not of his own making (post 9-11), but he was the mainstream leftist candidate in a time of war, and the incumbent. Schroder won in part because of his personal popularity relative to Stoiber, but with a reduced margin in the Bundestag.

    I know we have some keen observers of German politics here at DKE (270, ArkDem14, etc.), and would be interested in your take on the parallels.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:54:30 AM PDT

  •  8.67 Million Dollars! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, itskevin, DrPhillips, askew

    That's how much Elizabeth Warren raised this quarter. That's pretty amazing!

    LINK

  •  $71mm for Obama/DNC is disappointing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    and explains the hard sell I've been getting from OFA. Now, I am expecting that Romney is lying about his $106mm again but that $71mm is still disappointing. Obama's been doing a lot of big dollar fundraisers as is Biden, but it sure seems like there are a lot of people who think Obama doesn't need money. Let's hope this is a wake-up call for them.

    It would be nice to see DK start including links to donate to Obama with frontpage stories on the presidential race.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:00:19 AM PDT

    •  It's still enough (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, askew, JeremiahTheMessiah, bythesea

      There comes a point, at least in a presidential race, where there is a diminishing return for the money raised.  There's a saturation point.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:06:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

        I've said for a while that OFA will have what they need to run the campaign that they want. It's a bad headline, but I dont know that it is more than that.

        I do wonder if there is a lack of urgency among some Obama donors. Harvey Weinstein, an Obama bundler, said this on Rachel Maddow's show; that there is overconfidence among some Obama fundraisers.

        Ironically, Obama's surprising strong June doesnt help that any.

        •  Which is? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          That Romney is raising more money than Obama?  That it shows a lack of confidence in Obama?  That won't change one vote.  Voters, especially "persuadable voters" don't given a damn about that.  It's all inside baseball.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:20:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  There's not a diminishing return because... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bfen, itskevin, jncca, KingofSpades

        ...more money just means you can expand your map and put more states into play, putting more pressure on your opponent.

        But Obama has a natural advantage in the map that, absent a worsening economy that causes a uniform swing state polling swing, ensures Romney will never really wrap up the states the GOP almost always won pre-Obama.  And that ensures Obama is fine as long as he raises what he needs for his nine target states.

        Where the GOP money can matter is that eventually Romney might spend a lot more in Michigan and Wisconsin to make them true tossups.  That's his best bet for leveling the map.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:22:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Let's remember that his biggest (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      months came at the end of the campaign last time around and that Romney is almost certainly closer to maxing out his donor base than Obama is.

      Also, while this is probably small potatoes, this does make the charge that he's buying the election more potent. Were Obama consistently out raising Romney in all ways, but specifically through direct contributions, it wouldn't seem like outside donors mattered that much. Now people might think they do, I suspect.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:09:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No it's not (5+ / 0-)

      OFA raised $74 million in 2008.  It's only $3 million less, which is a trivial difference.

      But OFA was spending for primaries like crazy all winter and spring, and perhaps into early summer (I don't remember exactly when Obama wrapped it up) just to wrap up the nomination.  All his spending this time has been for the general, not to win the party nod first.  So it follows he needs less than last time.

      From what I see, Obama is raising enough to do everything he wants to do.  Yes they are scared of how much Team Red is raising and will raise.  But that's not the same as concern for what OFA has itself.  Fundraising is not relative, there are certain absolute thresholds that matter to a campaign plan without regard to what the opposition is doing.

      I'm satisifed the combined OFA/DNC/Victory Fund total of $71 million gets Obama where he wants and needs to be.  If they raise enough to pay for the campaign infrastructure, TV ads, and other message delivery vehicles their plan calls for, then that's enough.  And I think they're raising enough.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:19:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Me donating $20 to the campaign would close that (0+ / 0-)

      35 million gap pretty fast eh?

  •  MO-Sen GOP Primary heating up (0+ / 0-)

    The ad wars have started.  Today, the twitterverse is a buzz with allegations of attacking family members and whatnot.  the kerfuffle started with an ad from one of the candidates.  

    Huffpo has picked up the story

    The ad is kind of funny.  But not really.  

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 11:02:27 AM PDT

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