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On balance, this was yet another quiet day on the polling front. However, for fans of our Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, you already know that it was anything but a quiet day on the campaign/electoral front.

So, is this the end of the holiday week polling lull, with data to flow like wine from this point forward? Or are lighter media budgets around the country equating to a much more sparse polling environment?

It would seem we are about to find out. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (TIPP for Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (43-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-SEN (Field Poll): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 51, Elizabeth Emken (R) 32

KY-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Barr/NRCC): Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 47, Andy Barr (R) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

It's a safe bet that we haven't seen a week with as little data to report as we have seen in this past week since the start of the year. Not counting the Gallup/Ras tracking polls, we have only seen about a dozen new polls since last weekend.

The question is whether this is just a quiet period, based on the midweek nature of the holiday (making polling before or after the Wednesday holiday problematic), or whether this is a semi-permanent lull in summer polling, as media outlets hoard their considerably more limited resources for the fall.

There would be some basis for assuming the latter. Polling ain't cheap, and until the convention season rolls along after the Olympic Games, there may not be much appetite for taking the temperature on electoral contests where very little "game changing" stuff may be going on.

Given the deluge of polling at the close, it might be hard to remember, but the same summer lull happened in 2008, when most media outlets only polled once a month until the conventions, when the polling volume became more frequent at the presidential level.

We'll see in the coming days. Downballot, meanwhile, I'd imagine that we'll still see a fair amount of campaign polling getting thrown around, as candidates try to start getting an early frame on the general election. While the standard grains of salt apply, what to watch for there, as we have seen thus far, is how many polls go completely unanswered by the opposition. Dueling polls may not tell us a lot, but if only one side is doing the squawking, that could be telling.

In other polling news ...

  • Speaking of campaign polls, P.O.S. dropped one just today, on behalf of the NRCC and their guy in the Kentucky 6th, 2010 nominee Andy Barr. The poll analysis was a bit amusing, as it tried to make something substantive out of the fact that the race went from 49-42 in the winter to its present position (47-42). Chandler and Barr offered dueling polls in the past, so be on the lookout for a corresponding Democratic poll on behalf of the veteran incumbent, who barely beat Barr in an awful year for Democrats in 2010.
  • The biggest polling news today, however, may have come from a poll that wasn't even released today. Earlier today, PPP tweeted out a potential banner headline for Tuesday out of Wisconsin: their new numbers out of the Badger State put businessman Eric Hovde ahead of former Gov. Tommy Thompson in the GOP Senate primary. Thompson had fared much better in trial heats against Democrat Tammy Baldwin than Hovde. Stay tuned.
  • The only other poll released today was, on balance, a bit underwhelming for the Democrats. Dianne Feinstein is almost certainly not endangered in her bid for reelection, but her numbers when paired with Elizabeth Emken (who barely rises above the level of Some Dudette) are pretty meek. She takes 51 percent, while the little-known Emken is back at 32 percent. DiFi polled only a couple of points better than she scored in the open primary last month, and a bit below the 56.6 percent combined vote for Democrats. Emken, meanwhile, has also failed to consolidate the combined 39 percent of the vote that went to GOP candidates.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I've returned (7+ / 0-)

    and I am glad to see Romney's streak of non-leads in non-trackers has held up, although it was close today with TIPP.

    And now more on that subject line:

  •  PPP will be out with a VA-Pres poll tomorrow (35+ / 0-)

    showing Obama with a "decent lead" even with a polling demographic that is not as friendly as 2008 (ie barring a complete disaster Obama should win VA).

    It will also release a NC-Pres poll that will show a 1-pt race (which I suspect will be Obama ahead by 1).  Again, despite that level of ad trash thrown in NC and VA, Obama continues to do well.  There is only one reason for that -- Romney sucks as a candidate to voters.

    I will repeat what I heard from a top level Romney supporter last Friday -- Romeny's campaign has done focus groups on the Bain ads and they show that the ads are killing Romney.  As the Romney person said, you may not like Obama but this Romney guy reminds voters of the boss that fired them from their jobs.  Hence all the ridiculous push back from the Romney campaign today, be it, I dont know about tax havens I am a "hear no evil see no evil" blind trust guy, or calling the attacks desparate.

    If you can make the donation, please give some to the pro-Obama SuperPac Priorioties Action so they can continue to put up killer Bain ads like the one called "Stage"

    •  It's not just hypothetically that Romney (12+ / 0-)

      reminds people of the boss that fired them from their jobs. Considering the number of companies that went bankrupt after Bain drained them of their assets and the number of people that lost their jobs as a result, millions of people actually do know someone that lost their job thanks to Romney.

      Republicans believe you need an ID to vote but you can donate millions to any candidate completely anonymously. (h/t jbou)

      by Calouste on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:17:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is this a quiet period? (Your question) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, TofG

        Doesn't matter.  Rasmussen will set the pace for all pollsters as Election Day nears.

        Are these numbers indicative of any trend?

        Doesn't matter.  Rasmussen will swamp the polling data in the last month so that any real trends will be drowned.

        Does it look good for Obama right now poll-wise?

        Doesn't matter.  Rasmussen is all ready to discharge his "Romney surge" polling numbers starting about October 7-10.  Since otherwise sensible journalists (like Mr. Singiser) allow themselves to be drawn into Rasmussen's fog of phony GOP-pushing data, everyone else thinks "Hmm.  Must be something valid to Rasmussen's numbers."  

        Thus, for want of a nail, a shoe is  lost...

        "The best lack all conviction, while the worst
        Are full of passionate intensity." --W. B. Yeats

        by Pragmatus on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:35:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Male-female edge for Obama (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fearisthemindkiller

          An interesting side note on the sexual demographics of American voters—women outnumbered men at the 2008 polls by a ratio of 53:47.  If this ratio holds for this cycle, Obama can still win even if women split their vote evenly between him and Romney and men go for Romney at a ratio of 56:44.

          That’s a pretty tough hill to climb.

          Given that the GOP has done everything it can to alienate and insult women lately, I hope we can at least expect the male/female ratio of voters will remain pretty much the same as it was in 2008.  And since the GOP has been treating women the way little boys treat a fire-ant nest, there’s no way women will favor Romney over Obama.   For Romney to win, I’m guessing he’d have to capture 62-65% of the male vote.  No way in hell.

          "The best lack all conviction, while the worst
          Are full of passionate intensity." --W. B. Yeats

          by Pragmatus on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:54:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The Rasmussen effect on polling averages (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dopper0189, drachaCRO, stevenaxelrod

          declines in October.  Down the page I note that the number of state polls is down in 2012 over 2008 and 2004.  Virtually all of this decrease is because of Rasmussen.

          The importance of Rasmussen decline in October, as their polls become a smaller percentage of all polls.
          Photobucket

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:39:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, but why (0+ / 0-)

            would Rasmussen, perusing those same figures, wouldn't pump up the poll-swamping?  Given his non-stop GOP cheerleading why, when faced with your excellent graphs, would he simply sit on his hands and say "Well I couldn't possibly spew out more polls than I did in 2008."

            "The best lack all conviction, while the worst
            Are full of passionate intensity." --W. B. Yeats

            by Pragmatus on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:13:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  DCCyclone was right then (8+ / 0-)

      Romney found himself totally flat-footed on Bain.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:18:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not flat footed (7+ / 0-)

        It's been pretty clear for a while that Obama was gonna hit hard on Bain.  Romney can't defend himself because it's very, very difficult to defend that line of work.  It's like saying someone isn't properly defending their record as a hitman, or as a drug dealer.  Certain professions are just icky to most people no matter how much you try to explain them.

        •  Romney has been running for office since 1994 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, stevenaxelrod, Nedsdag

          You'd think that in those 18 years he would either have come up with some kind of decent story about it or realized that it is not something you should run on. Ted Kennedy was beating him like a rented mule with it even in 1994.

          Republicans believe you need an ID to vote but you can donate millions to any candidate completely anonymously. (h/t jbou)

          by Calouste on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:40:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, that's not true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, jncca

          Romney's campaign has cited in their noise machine contributions a couple success stories of Bain's investments, like Staples and Sports Authority.

          And the Romney campaign did a web video a few months ago on one success story (a different one, not Staples or SA).

          I assumed at that time that the web video would be converted to one or more 30-second ads.

          It never was.

          Nor has Romney done any other ads about his "job creation" record.

          His campaign really has committed major malpractice by not thinking ahead about all this.  They somehow assumed this campaign would be like 2002, when a weak Democrat was unable to tarnish Mitt in the Governor's race.  They never imagined it could be more like 1994, when Kennedy eviscerated him.  At the least, they should've been prepared for Bain attacks working, since they did in 1994, and they worked again for a time even in the GOP primaries early this year.

          And even now, Romney's response isn't to talk up anything positive Bain accomplished, but instead to complain about Obama's ads.  That's interpreted by voters as both personal weakness and a sign the Obama attacks are accurate, since Romney won't push back with counter-substance.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:21:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Priorities USA (11+ / 0-)

      Supposedly they raised more in June than they did in May (and they raised more in May than they did in the whole 1st quarter of the year).  I hope the success of these ads attract more big donors (Earth to Soros and Buffett).  Soros has donated a million each to a Super PAC associated with opposition research against Republicans and a non-profit focused on Dem voter registration, but he should throw a few million to Priorities USA and its non-profit brother, maybe a million to House Majority PAC.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 06:20:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hope you're right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Aunt Pat, KingofSpades

      Always makes me feel good to see those polls.  

      And yeah, Romney is not a likeable guy.  He does remind people of all the bosses they hate.  

      Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

      by SoCalLiberal on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:04:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That line about the boss... (8+ / 0-)

      ...is from Huckabee who said it during the 2008 primary.

      I'm really amazed that after all this time, including a major scare in the primary, that they have not come up with a substantive defense or counterattack on Bain.  They really must be out of touch on the issue to have let it fester so long like that.  I know Romney is an idiot, but I'm surprised that Rove wasn't on this as soon as Santorum started threatening Romney in the primary.

      It's still early.  It would have been nice if the damage was done later.  I don't know what they will come up with, but they have some time to figure it out.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 07:53:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Politics of Envy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        They went with that for a while.  Yes, it's early but if they make this impression of Mittens stick, it's going to be a very hard slug for him to get the traction he needs.  

        I think of Rove more as an offensive than a defensive strategist.   I'm not sure he or anyone else has a very good spin for Bain.  After the financial crisis, the bailouts, and the countless headlines of mortgage and financial fraud, it's just not a good time to sell venture capitalism as rah rah USA USA.

        What senses do we lack that we cannot see another world all around us?

        by fearisthemindkiller on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:27:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ruy Teixeira must read piece on demographics (7+ / 0-)

      New Data on Obama's Massive Demographic Advantage

      Looking first at the Mountain West, the two key states here are Nevada and Colorado (That’s because New Mexico is highly likely to go for Obama, while Arizona is realistically a long shot for him). Nevada is the nation’s leader in demographic change: Between 2008 and 2012, the minority share of eligible voters increased by an astonishing 9 points, more than 2 points a year. Minorities are now almost 40 percent of Nevada’s eligible voters. At the same time, the share of white non-college eligibles has declined by over 5 points in the state and white college eligibles by 3 points.

      Colorado has also experienced a high level of demographic change in the last four years, if not quite in Nevada’s league. The share of minority eligible voters has grown by over three points—almost entirely from Hispanics—and there has been a roughly equal decline in the share of white working class eligibles, by far Obama’s worst group in the state.

      Turning to the New South swing states of North Carolina and Florida, there have also been sizable demographic shifts over the last four years. In North Carolina, the minority share of eligible voters has gone up over 4 points, with simultaneous declines of around 2 points in both white college and white non-college eligibles. In Florida, the increase in minority share has also been about 4 points, while white working class eligibles have declined 3 points and white college eligibles by 1 point.

      The other competitive New South state, Virginia, has seen significantly less demographic change, despite being the southern swing state where Obama has been polling the strongest. Minority eligible voters are only up a single percentage point in the state. However, white college graduate eligibles, among whom Obama ran relatively well in 2008, are also up a point, while white non-college eligibles, where Obama fared the poorest, are down 2 points.

      Most of the rest of the competitive states are in the Midwest/Rust Belt area, in an arc of five states stretching west from Pennsylvania to Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Of these five states, the one exhibiting the greatest amount of demographic change by far is Wisconsin. Since 2008, the share of minority eligibles has risen by 3 points, while white college graduates have increased by 4 points and white working class eligibles have declined sharply by 7 points.

      More modest, but still significant amounts of demographic change have taken place in Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, the minority share of eligible voters is up 2 points, while white non-college eligibles, whom Obama lost by 15 points in 2008, are down a similar amount. In Michigan, the minority share of eligibles is also up 2 points, while white college eligibles are up a point and white non-college eligibles are down 2 points.

      The other two states, Ohio and Iowa, have seen the least amount of change. Ohio’s minority share of eligible voters has been almost flat (up a mere three-tenths of a percentage point) while white working class eligibles were actually up a point. And in Iowa, there has been no change at all in the minority share of eligibles, while white working class eligibles increased by a point and white college eligibles decreased by the same amount. Perhaps not coincidentally, these two states have also been the tightest for Obama among the region’s swing states.

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

      by dopper0189 on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:05:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This will be good news about the VA poll tomorrow. (5+ / 0-)

    Up to the confusing moment when Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire were put in the battleground state status, my minimalist over-simplication for discussion purpose was to imagine we have enough safe, and leaning states such that we would win with any one of the four victories:  Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or a combination of Iowa and Colorado.  

    I assume in this analysis that if we were to win North Carolina, or other leaning pink states, we would have already won with one of the previous four.

    But, what gives with RCP averages for WI, MI, CO, and NH under 3% or less, when previously, we had seen polls in these state showing us 9% or more ahead?   What happened?

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:49:53 PM PDT

    •  What happened? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, Aunt Pat, MJB, Kenneth Thomas

      Probably some natural tightening as well as a bunch of polling from R-leaning organizations.

    •  I don't think you can equate those 4 options (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GRLionsFan

      as there is a range of EV numbers there. Of these 4, I would rate FL as enough on its own, OH as very nearly enough, and VA and CO+IA as about half-way there.

      Put it this way, if you assume for VA or CO+IA that Obama loses all the other states you list as the one-shot victories, how does the map look?

      Obama would still have to win NH + NV, which he has a decent chance of doing, but is not in my view a nailed-on certainty.

      If he wins OH and loses the others he would still need NV, but not NH, so his odds are a good deal better.

      If he wins FL that's it, nothing else required.

      Of course this is all assuming that MI, WI, PA etc are not going to come into the picture, but at this stage I'm fairly confident that they won't.

  •  I'm not sure if it was picked up on here... (11+ / 0-)

    but I read a Politico article about the votes Congress plans to cast that put Democrats in a bad spot, and within the article it said GOP internal polling had Dems up 47-45 on the generic ballot, the first time Dems led since February I think.

  •  PPP seems to pro Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    belzaboo

    No way in hell I believe he has a chance in NC this year. I agree Va should go for Obama but no other pollster has shown Obama with a lead in NC.

  •  Polling frequency in past cycles (0+ / 0-)

    The following also shows the polling error by region.

    In 2004 the lull was almost identical to the current one.

    In June there were 53 state polls, and 57 in May.  There is less polling in this cycle than in the past - though in 2008 the primaries went longer and some of the pollsters would poll the primary and the trial heats. Nonethless, there have been significantly fewer polls in 2012 than in either 2008 or 2004.

    BTW - a positive number in this chart means that the polling overstates Democrat performance, a negative number means it understates Democratic performance.
    Photobucket

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:20:22 PM PDT

    •  The definition of the South (0+ / 0-)

      in this chart excluded Florida and Virginia.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:26:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  isn't it really only the final numbers you can (0+ / 0-)

      call "polling error"? For the earlier ones there are no actual results to compare with, and I'm sure that Obama's "real" position in 08 improved when the financial crisis exploded in September.

      Still, there is an interesting pattern of the Democratic candidate's position being overstated in the South and understated in the North-east relative to overall national error level.

      Within about a point overall in each of the last 3 elections is a pretty decent result. Polling is reliable shock!

  •  Obama could easily improve his numbers (0+ / 0-)

    by proposing the most proven effective economic policy (and historic Democratic Party standard-borne platform philosophy) for reversing a depressed economy. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT.
    We’ve already tried the republican top-down, supply-side philosophy to the hilt (i.e. Wall-Street bailouts). How’s that working out for us?
    Both sides are more interested in corporate contributions and transferring wealth from the poor/working-class to the super-rich than they’re worried about 'their numbers'.
    Obama could easily improve his numbers (but doing that would greatly reduce corporate contributions).

  •  MA-Sen: Even when she raised a huge amount (6+ / 0-)

    in Quarter 1, she manages to beat it in Quarter 2.  I hope (also, even though a majority of the donations are from out-of-state, it would be hypocritical for Brown to criticize her on that as he raised 3/4ths of his funds from out-of-state for the special election).

    Also, in other news, Warren is upping operations in Central Mass.  She has an office open there now and it is run by the leader of the Worcester Dem Committee:
    http://www.golocalworcester.com/...

    Rep. McGovern heads the Worcester machine and he's been one of her top surrogates.  I hope he also uses his campaign cash (he's not at risk this year) to maximize Dem turnout here.

    She's also doing well at practicing retail politics in addition to the wonk stuff: http://www.salon.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 08:44:13 PM PDT

    •  From that Salon piece - (0+ / 0-)
      After all, if it’s(ACA) a tax, it means it can be repealed via the reconciliation process in the Senate with only 51 Republican votes
      Now admittedly I stopped reading the "What if's" from the healthcare ruling, but has this been mentioned? Seems pretty damn sneaky to call it a tax, basically Roberts punting on it, but making it easier for the GOP to eventually repeal it.  Just because SCOTUS called it a tax, does it make it a tax? Dems say it's a penalty/mandate enforced by the IRS via the tax code, but I don't know who gets to define it officially now.  

      Would just the mandate be repealed as a tax or would the whole ACA have to go with it?

      •  The Byrd rule (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah, pollbuster

        anything done under reconciliation must not add to the deficit.  And of course, they can't repeal the regulatory and other non-budget parts of the bill under reconciliation.

        In the end, it's up to the parliamentarian to say what is and what isn't if push comes to shove.

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:15:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Kansas Redistricting-Anyone out there who can help (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    I'm  going to make a diary on redistricting of the state senate of Kansas by the federal courts and what the electoral outlook is there.  Is there anyone out there with any knowledge of Kanasas politics (local or statewide) who can help me understand which races are competitive and which aren't?  I'll credit anyone who helps me in the diary.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:19:18 PM PDT

  •  Going to early vote tomorrow in Georgia. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, askew, sapelcovits

     There are 24(!) judicial races on my ballot tomorrow. I will need to bring a fricking cheat sheet to remember who to pick. Also, how did people vote in these races before the google?

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:22:50 PM PDT

  •  Voter ID proposals in NC held at bay by activism: (5+ / 0-)

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 09:50:43 PM PDT

  •  was going to post this in the live digest (0+ / 0-)

    but since no one will read it tomorrow I'll post it here. Does anybody think the record for most seats lost or gained in a decade will ever be broken?

    The record for most gained was California in the 1940s when they gained 7.87 seats. The record for most lost was New York in the 1970s with a loss of 5.31 seats.

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:39:56 PM PDT

  •  New ABC/WaPo Poll: 47-47 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DoctorWho, distantcousin, askew

    Obama has edge in enthusiasm and likability.  Big boost for health care law--now even support/disapprove.

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    Taken July 5-8

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 10:59:26 PM PDT

    •  they had O+3 just over a month ago (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, LordMike

      so a slight weakening there although all MoE stuff.

      They're adding to the consensus that support for Obama's healthcare law has grown since the Supreme Court ruling - numbers have gone from 37-53 last time to 47-47 now.

      Whatever some conservatives may believe, I suspect that this is going to be a dog that doesn't bark in the election campaign. Romney's position on it is uncomfortable enough that I don't think he sees much mileage in attacking Obama on it, and with support for the reforms now about level with opposition he's going to be even less enthusiastic about going there.

      Since this was one of the 3 major risk-factors I could see for Obama this has to be good news on the whole. The other 2 were the economy turning sharply south and some major foreign policy crisis that makes Obama look weak. However I'm close to crossing the last one off my list too. Romney has little experience in foreign policy and isn't showing any inclination to highlight it so far. So that essentially leaves the economy. Willard has to be hoping there's a ticking timebomb in there somewhere.

    •  Down 53-39 among independents (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, askew

      who appear to make up the largest group of the sample at 37%.  Which is too high.  Since Republicans are only 27%, I wonder whether some people classified as indys were really Republicans.  Without seeing a racial breakdown, it's hard to get a full picture.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 03:19:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think (but I don't have proof) that there are a (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        LOT of former Republicans who don't call themselves "Republican" anymore after George W Bush.  They'd tell you they're "independent" or "tea party" or "conservative", and if "Independent" is the only poll option besides D and R, they'll go with Independent

      •  Don't make anything of that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        WaPo is relatively consistent in its turnout model in having indies high and GOPers low.  It doesn't seem to affect their toplines, which are mostly consistent with other pollsters.

        And the indies crosstab is unreliable.  Look at polling across the board, and there's no trend among polls by the same pollster or across different pollsters of indies consistently leaning toward Romney, or toward Obama, or toward being evenly split.  The polls are all over the map on indies.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:26:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Feinstein's polling low (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Christopher Walker

    because of all the liberals who refuse to support her at this point. But as you say, she'll cruise to re-election when they realize that the alternative is another vote for Mitch McConnell's Gilded Age II: The Revenge.

    Politics ain't beanbag--Mr. Dooley

    by LeftCoastTimm on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 11:16:37 PM PDT

  •  poor Andy Barr (0+ / 0-)

    He lost his big chance to unseat Ben Chandler and now he's just embarrassing himself.  He will not get elected from this district and he will always be remembered as a mean-spirited corporate tool loser who just couldn't get the message.  

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