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Now that the primary dust is settled and I have some time, I can present my analysis of the California districts this year. With top-two, we have some more interesting races to watch. With the lack of a write-in option in the November elections, I came up with a new safer-than-safe rating, "Guaranteed". The outcomes will not be different from the "Safe" races, but I like having them separated, because some of the "Guaranteed" races will be interesting to watch.

California's 1st congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Chico)
November ballot: Doug LaMalfa (R) vs. Jim Reed (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37
President 2008: McCain 53-42

California's 2nd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: North Coast north of San Francisco (Eureka, Petaluma)
November ballot: Jared Huffman (D) vs. Dan Roberts (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 62-29
Governor 2010: Brown 64-30
President 2008: Obama 71-25

California's 3rd congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: Solano County and Southern Sacramento Valley (Davis, Fairfield, Yuba City)
November ballot: John Garamendi (D-inc) vs. Kim Vann (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45
Governor 2010: Brown 50-43
President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Garamendi underperformed the previous incumbent Ellen Tauscher in both the 2009 special and the 2010 general in the old district, which was more Democratic than this one. Colusa County Supervisor Vann is also a serious candidate, having more cash-on-hand than Garamendi ($169K - $132K), though Garamendi spent more than 3.5 times as much as Vann ($895K - $244K).

California's 4th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Placer County, eastern Central Valley
November ballot: Tom McClintock (R-inc) vs. Jack Uppal (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-38
President 2008: McCain 54-43

California's 5th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Napa Valley
November ballot: Mike Thompson (D-inc) vs. Randy Loftin (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-30
Governor 2010: Brown 63-31
President 2008: Obama 70-27

California's 6th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento
November ballot: Doris Matsui (D-inc) vs. Joseph McCray (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 59-32
Governor 2010: Brown 66-28
President 2008: Obama 68-29

California's 7th congressional district: LEAN GOP
Geography: Eastern Sacramento suburbs (Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Citrus Heights)
November ballot: Dan Lungren (R-inc) vs. Ami Bera (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 49-44
President 2008: Obama 51-46

Description: This will probably be the race to watch in California's congressional delegation. Lungren won a hard-fought race the last two cycles, and in 2010 Democrats picked up a State Assembly seat in this area, one of the few Democratic pickups that year. The district became slightly more Democratic, going from Obama by 0.5% to Obama by 5%. However, Lungren beat Bera by 12 points in June, so he has a small advantage.

California's 8th congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Sierras and most of San Bernardino County
November ballot: Paul Cook (R) vs. Gregg Imus (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-36
President 2008: McCain 55-42

California's 9th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Lodi) and eastern Contra Costa County (Antioch)
November ballot: Jerry McNerney (D-inc) vs. Ricky Gill (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 47-44
Governor 2010: Brown 51-42
President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Republicans landed a top recruit in Gill to face McNerney, who has had a history of tough races. This district became slightly more Democratic than the old one, voting for Boxer and Brown. Gill could use McNerney's recent move to Stockton from Pleasanton in the Bay Area to his advantage, and has argued that McNerney has not been an effective San Joaquin County representative. This will be a race to watch, though due to this district being slightly more Democratic than the old CA-11, I give McNerney a small edge.

California's 10th congressional district: LIKELY GOP
Geography: Stanislaus County and southwestern San Joaquin County
November ballot: Jeff Denham (R-inc) vs. Jose Hernandez (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 52-39
Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44
President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Denham's weak performance in June was surprising, considering his history of big margins in similar districts, though that may be due to nonpartisan candidate Chad Condit (son of former conservative Democrat congressman Gary Condit).

California's 11th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Contra Costa County (Richmond, Walnut Creek, Concord)
November ballot: George Miller (D-inc) vs. Virginia Fuller (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 60-34
Governor 2010: Brown 61-34
President 2008: Obama 69-28

California's 12th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Francisco
November ballot: Nancy Pelosi (D-inc) vs. John Dennis (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14
Governor 2010: Brown 78-16
President 2008: Obama 84-13

California's 13th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Berkeley, Oakland
November ballot: Barbara Lee (D-inc) vs. Marilyn Singleton (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 83-11
Governor 2010: Brown 84-11
President 2008: Obama 87-10

California's 14th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: South San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo, Redwood City
November ballot: Jackie Speier (D-inc) vs. Debbie Bacigalupi (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27
Governor 2010: Brown 66-28
President 2008: Obama 73-24

California's 15th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Southern East Bay (Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon)
November ballot: Pete Stark (D-inc) vs. Eric Swalwell (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 59-34
Governor 2010: Brown 59-35
President 2008: Obama 67-30

Description: For once, we have a race to watch in a safe district, with delegation dean Stark against fellow Democrat Swalwell. Stark has had a series of gaffes, and Swalwell gained the endorsements of the San Francisco Chronicle and Bay Area Newsgroup. Swalwell also hails from a part of the district that is new to Stark, the Tri-Valley area. Will term 20 be Stark's last term?

California's 16th congressional district: LIKELY DEM
Geography: Fresno, Madera, Merced
November ballot: Jim Costa (D-inc) vs. Brian Whelan (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-43
Governor 2010: Brown 50-42
President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Costa traded the Kern and Kings portions of his old district for Madera and Merced. He should be fine if he takes the race seriously, unlike last time.

California's 17th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale)
November ballot: Mike Honda (D-inc) vs. Evelyn Li (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29
Governor 2010: Brown 61-34
President 2008: Obama 69-28

California's 18th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (Menlo Park, Palo Alto, San Jose)
November ballot: Anna Eshoo (D-inc) vs. David Chapman (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
Governor 2010: Brown 60-35
President 2008: Obama 70-27

California's 19th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Jose
November ballot: Zoe Lofgren (D-inc) vs. Robert Murray (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31
Governor 2010: Brown 60-25
President 2008: Obama 70-27

California's 20th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Northern Central Coast (Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz)
November ballot: Sam Farr (D-inc) vs. Jeff Taylor (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31
Governor 2010: Brown 63-31
President 2008: Obama 71-26

California's 21st congressional district: LIKELY GOP
Geography: Southern Central Valley (Hanford, Bakersfield)
November ballot: John Hernandez (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-40
Governor 2010: Brown 48-44
President 2008: Obama 52-46

Description: With the Democrats' two best candidates, Michael Rubio and Dean Florez, not running and Valadao winning a majority of the vote in the first round, this district is very likely to go Republican.

California's 22nd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Fresno, Visalia
November ballot: Devin Nunes (R-inc) vs. Otto Lee (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30
Governor 2010: Whitman 59-35
President 2008: McCain 55-42

California's 23rd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Kern County (Bakersfield)
November ballot: Kevin McCarthy (R-inc) vs. Terry Phillips (NPP)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 64-26
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-33
President 2008: McCain 61-36

California's 24th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
November ballot: Lois Capps (D-inc) vs. Abel Maldonado (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45
Governor 2010: Brown 47-46
President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This was probably the toughest race for me to rate, between lean Dem and toss-up. Capps gets back her old district from the 90s that was marginal (including voting for Bob Dole in 1996) and that she won close races in. Capps is more entrenched now than she was in the 90s, but I don't think she is used to serious campaigning after five non-competitive races. In addition, Maldonado represented this area in the state legislature, though he is not liked by the party base and could be hammered on taxes. I decided to give Capps a few more points due to being entrenched, though this race could become a toss-up again if there are any new developments.

California's 25th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley
November ballot: Buck McKeon (R-inc) vs. Lee Rogers (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39
President 2008: Obama 49-48

California's 26th congressional district: TOSS-UP
Geography: Ventura County (Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks)
November ballot: Julia Brownley (D) vs. Tony Strickland (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45
Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46
President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Democrats suffered a setback when County Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out in February and recruited Assemblywoman Brownley. A Santa Monica-area rep would be an awkward fit for a Ventura County district, but Strickland has had many close races himself. It is unknown who the supporters of nonpartisan candidate Linda Parks will go to in November.

California's 27th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Pasadena, Monterey Park, Alhambra
November ballot: Judy Chu (D-inc) vs. Jack Orswell (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-39
Governor 2010: Brown 55-39
President 2008: Obama 61-36

California's 28th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Glendale, Burbank
November ballot: Adam Schiff (D-inc) vs. Phil Jennerjahn (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-30
Governor 2010: Brown 63-30
President 2008: Obama 70-26

California's 29th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 67-24
Governor 2010: Brown 68-24
President 2008: Obama 74-23

California's 30th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Howard Berman (D-inc) vs. Brad Sherman (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
Governor 2010: Brown 57-36
President 2008: Obama 66-31

Description: This is the same-party race to watch, a clash of the titans if you will. Berman has the Hollywood establishment, while Sherman has more local endorsements, as well as Bill Clinton. Sherman has also been more visible in the area, and got more votes than Berman in June. As far as Republican/conservative outreach goes, Berman has the support of former mayor Richard Riordan, DA Steve Cooley, and county supervisor Mike Antonovich, while CPA and former Board of Equalization (the state's tax board) member Sherman voted against TARP in 2008.

California's 31st congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
November ballot: Bob Dutton (R) vs. Gary Miller (R-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44
Governor 2010: Brown 49-41
President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the only race where top-two cost a party a chance at a pickup. I hope this missed opportunity teaches Democrats a lesson to be more disciplined when it comes to candidates. As far as November goes, the combination of familiarity among locals and no scandals should give Dutton a comfortable edge.

California's 32nd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Gabriel Valley
November ballot: Grace Napolitano (D-inc) vs. David Miller (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-36
Governor 2010: Brown 57-35
President 2008: Obama 62-35

California's 33rd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: West Side L.A., Beach Cities, Palos Verdes
November ballot: Henry Waxman (D-inc) vs. Bill Bloomfield (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-39
Governor 2010: Brown 54-40
President 2008: Obama 64-32

California's 34th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Downtown L.A.
November ballot: Xavier Becerra (D-inc) vs. Steven Smith (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16
Governor 2010: Brown 76-16
President 2008: Obama 77-19

California's 35th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Inland Empire (Pomona, Fontana, Ontario)
November ballot: Joe Baca (D-inc) vs. Gloria Negrete-McLeod (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34
Governor 2010: Brown 58-33
President 2008: Obama 64-32

Description: Another same-party race to watch, with McLeod challenging Baca from the left. McLeod has represented Pomona and Chino, which are not familiar to Baca, and held him under 50% despite establishment backing.

California's 36th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Riverside County
November ballot: Mary Bono Mack (R-inc) vs. Raul Ruiz (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-42
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43
President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Bono Mack had a closer-than-usual race in 2010 due to a third-party conservative. Now with a more Republican district she should be able to breathe easier.

California's 37th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Crenshaw, Culver City
November ballot: Karen Bass (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 79-14
Governor 2010: Brown 79-15
President 2008: Obama 84-13

California's 38th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Norwalk, Lakewood, Whittier
November ballot: Linda Sánchez (D-inc) vs. Ben Campos (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-35
Governor 2010: Brown 57-35
President 2008: Obama 61-35

California's 39th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Fullerton, Yorba Linda, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills
November ballot: Ed Royce (R-inc) vs. Jay Chen (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 54-38
President 2008: McCain 49-47

California's 40th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens
November ballot: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-inc) vs. David John Sanchez (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 72-18
Governor 2010: Brown 73-19
President 2008: Obama 77-19

California's 41st congressional district: TOSS-UP
Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley
November ballot: Mark Takano (D) vs. John Tavaglione (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 59-40

Description: This new Riverside seat will probably be the SoCal race to watch. On paper it should go Democratic, but Republicans have historically fared well in Riverside races. However, I haven't been able to find any old Riverside districts as Democratic as this, so this district is uncharted territory for both parties.

California's 42nd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Corona, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore
November ballot: Ken Calvert (R-inc) vs. Michael Williamson (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33
Governor 2010: Whitman 56-35
President 2008: McCain 54-43

California's 43rd congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne
November ballot: Maxine Waters (D-inc) vs. Bob Flores (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 68-23
Governor 2010: Brown 69-24
President 2008: Obama 75-22

Description: Flores got a third of the vote in the primary, so this may be a race to watch to see if Waters' ethics issues finally catch up to her.

California's 44th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Carson, Compton, Long Beach, San Pedro
November ballot: Janice Hahn (D-inc) vs. Laura Richardson (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 76-15
Governor 2010: Brown 77-15
President 2008: Obama 81-16

Description: The other incumbent-vs.-incumbent race has much less drama. Like in June, Hahn should easily get more votes than scandal-tainted Richardson.

California's 45th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Central Orange County (Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo)
November ballot: John Campbell (R-inc) vs. Sukhee Kang (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33
Governor 2010: Whitman 59-34
President 2008: McCain 51-46

California's 46th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: North Central Orange County (Anaheim, Santa Ana)
November ballot: Loretta Sanchez (D-inc) vs. Jerry Hayden (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-40
Governor 2010: Brown 50-40
President 2008: Obama 58-39

California's 47th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: Long Beach, Garden Grove
November ballot: Gary DeLong (R) vs. Alan Lowenthal (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 50-42
Governor 2010: Brown 50-42
President 2008: Obama 58-39

Description: This should be a comfortable Democratic win, but Lowenthal's until-recently lackluster fundraising and opposition to high-speed rail funds for the Central Valley has Democrats concerned. DeLong is also a serious contender, with strong backing from the NRCC.

California's 48th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach
November ballot: Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc) vs. Ron Varasteh (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-35
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-35
President 2008: McCain 51-46

Californias' 49th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Dana Point, San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad
November ballot: Darrell Issa (R-inc) vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-36
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: Obama 49-48

California's 50th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Temecula, San Diego County (Escondido, Santee)
November ballot: Duncan D. Hunter (R-inc) vs. David B. Secor (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-28
Governor 2010: Whitman 61-31
President 2008: McCain 58-39

California's 51st congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Imperial County, San Diego (Chula Vista, Imperial Beach)
November ballot: Michael Crimmins (R) vs. Juan Vargas (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32
Governor 2010: Brown 58-31
President 2008: Obama 65-32

California's 52nd congressional district: LEAN GOP
Geography: Coronado, Poway, San Diego
November ballot: Brian Bilbray (R-inc) vs. Scott Peters (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-42
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43
President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: This district is less Republican than the old CA-50, though Bilbray isn't new to swingy districts having represented the old CA-49 in the 90s. Peters made it to the November ballot in spite of a nasty primary fight with the more liberal Saldana.

California's 53rd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Diego, Lemon Grove, El Cajon
November ballot: Susan Davis (D-inc) vs. Nick Popaditch (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 60-36

Overall, here are my ratings for the congressional races.
Guaranteed DEM: 7
Safe DEM: 21
Likely DEM: 1
Lean DEM: 4
Toss-Up: 2
Lean GOP: 2
Likely GOP: 2
Safe GOP: 12
Guaranteed GOP: 2

If my ratings pan out, the best Democrats can do (holding all their Guaranteed, Safe, Likely, and Lean seats and winning both toss-ups) is 35-18 and the best Republicans can do is 34-19.

Districts I'm watching: CA-03, CA-07, CA-09, CA-15, CA-24, CA-26, CA-30, CA-35, CA-41, CA-43, CA-47, CA-52

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (15+ / 0-)

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-01 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 11:09:52 PM PDT

  •  CA-04: I went to a Jack Uppal town hall (4+ / 0-)

    It was in a Roseville retirement community (I'm staying in Roseville for the summer).  He was surprisingly wonky and well-spoken on the issues all across the spectrum.  He was also very personable.  It's a shame this is such a Republican district.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 11:45:33 PM PDT

  •  i think garamendi is very likely to win the 3rd CD (3+ / 0-)

    but probably not by an overwhelming margin. he's a very good fit for the district in a lot of ways, and the november turnout will be a much more democratic electorate than the june primary electorate was.

  •  CA-35 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RamblinDave, Senor Unoball

    State Sen. Negrete-McLeod just last Friday was the "deciding" 21st vote on high-speed rail funding. (When it's a one-vote margin, of course all votes are deciding, but she voted last.)

    Government and laws are the agreement we all make to secure everyone's freedom.

    by Simplify on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:18:35 AM PDT

  •  CA-25 (3+ / 0-)

    Don't be so dismissive of Lee Roger's chance to topple Buck McKeon, who's sinking in a series of ethics scandals and in a GOP civil war that he's on the losing side of. His faction just lost control of the GOP district leadership, the Santa Clarita City Council (and mayor's office) and his wife came in a dismal third in the Assembly race. Feelings on the ground in the district are very bitter against McKeon and Republicans want him out... even if it means supporting a Democrat. On top of that, McKeon is on the wrong side of an issue that isn't just the #1 issue, it's considered by Santa Clarita voters to be an existential issue: the CEMEX mine.

    This is a race that doesn't fit neatly into an examination of past numbers. The report from Darrell Issa's committee that was clear McKeon was bribed by Countrywide has hit the district hard. He may still won, but to call this one "Safe GOP" does your readers a disservice and makes one wonder about the accuracy of your other predictions.

    •  The primary didn't show McKeon as vulnerable (4+ / 0-)

      His wife losing was pretty embarrassing and he may have trouble down the road, but McKeon did about as well as one would expect on June 5.  Of people who voted for a GOPer, McKeon received 72% of the vote.  Not excellent but it doesn't demonstrate that GOPers are furious at him and desperate to kick him out of office.

      Rogers fundraising so far hasn't gone anywhere either.  He hasn't released his quarterly numbers yet: if he's had a big influx of cash since the primary then that would be a sign that he's much more competitive than conventional wisdom.  For now though, there may be signs McKeon could be in for trouble later on but he looks set this year.  

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:49:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's not how it works in California (5+ / 0-)

      Rogers may push down McKeon's margins, but not enough to defeat him. A 49% Obama district in CA is not blue enough to elect a Dem. GOP infighting rarely sinks a Republican incumbent. At this point, the most optimistic I can be is a 2008 Bill Hedrick result: close, but not enough.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:07:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's going to be really hard for Rogers to win (5+ / 0-)

      he got a paltry 29.7% of the vote while the 3 Republicans split the remaining votes. So when you had the combined votes it would be 70.2% GOP to 29.7 Dem. That's way too much ground to make up.

      Despite the scandals and ill feelings McKeon still topped 50% here which is not a good sign.
      Even if Rogers consolidated the Republican vote (from the two other candidates he would still come up short here.

      So while I expect Rogers improve his numbers I just don't see  him gaining an additional  20.3% vote to put him above the mark.

      I also don't think the scandals you've mentioned have really settled in voters minds yet. It would take a Doolittle/Duke Cunningham level of scandal for it to really to start changing the logistics of this race.

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:39:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-43 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Senor Unoball

    What scandals are you referring to? I know Maxine Waters is controversial because she is prone to provocative comments, but I wasn't aware of any actual scandals.

    Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

    by RamblinDave on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 06:20:16 AM PDT

  •  These are super, unrealistically pessimistic (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Senor Unoball, bfen, sacman701

    CA-52? How lean Republican? Bilbary got less than 45% of the vote in an primary election where Hispanic and youth turnout was far lower than it will be in November. He's a good campaigner and an incumbent, but those factors are just enough to make it a toss up race. Not to mention Scott Peters was the better Democratic candidate with broader appeal.

    As for CA-03, well, Garamendi actually seems like a better fit for this district than his old one. And he performed very well in the first round, while in November he'll be able to rely on a much larger student turnout and the districts natural Democratic lean.

    CA-24 can't be anything other than likely Dem. Capps is well known and pretty personally popular in the area, and she's been raising loads of money and running what looks like a good campaign while Maldonado has really flailed around.

    CA-41: it's rather simple really. As long as Democrats have a real, actual candidate running, they aren't going to lose a seat Barber Boxer won by high single digits in 2010. Lean Dem.

    I agree with your take on CA-07 and CA-26. But your CA-10 post is absurd. Hernandez is running a fantastic campaign, much of the district is new for Denham on a Federal level, and running for Congress is different than running for State Senate, and much harder to get crossover voters in a competitive race for. That the area is also trending Democratic is dragging him down. A marquee toss up.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:25:14 AM PDT

    •  While I have trouble seeing Takano (4+ / 0-)

      lose, if you're going to use first round results as a harbinger of November, then you do kind of have to worry a bit - Republicans beat Democrats 55-45 in the primary. While I would rather be Takano than Tavaglione, I don't think Tossup is that unreasonable.

      As for CA-24, I sure hope you're right - the OMG YARD SIGNS!!11 factor aside, he does seem to have the fauxderate thing down, and he overperformed bigtime in SLO and Santa Barbara (despite not representing most of the latter in the State Senate) in 2010. of course, the fact that he lost by double digits to a polarizing figure in a red wave may speak loudest, but until I see a poll or something, I'm a little nervous.

      Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:44:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Some posted some research a while back (3+ / 0-)

        In the past Democrats have posted the biggest gains between the primary in general election, in this area. The turnout model was far different than it will be in the general, especially in a Presidential year. Takano may have an underwhelming single-digit victory, but he isn't going to lose barring a personal scandal or a colossally bad campaign.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:51:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maldonado (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        He really is a moderate, his last term in the state senate his voting record was closer to the average Dem than to any of the other Reeps. That said, Capps is a popular entrenched incumbent and should win if she runs a serious campaign.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 09:49:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I know the yard signs too well (0+ / 0-)

        When I lived in Santa Barbara in 2004, there were yard signs in Santa Barbara City mostly for Kerry. Then when I went over the Santa Ynez Mountains, I saw these GIGANTIC signs for Bush/Cheney, they were very large and annoying. The inner part of Santa Barbara County is very red but the coast outvotes Inland most of the time.

        Also, the reason Maldonado overperformed in SB was that UCSB has very low turnout except in Presidential years (it explains why many Democrats underperformed in 2010 in Santa Barbara County. Most turnout statewide was 70% of the 2008 level but the UCSB campus was around 50%.)

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 05:48:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  primaries (4+ / 0-)

      I suspect that in most districts there will be a strong correlation between the D-R splits in the primary and in the general. Collectively primary voters tend to be older and less Hispanic (i.e. more GOP), and I would expect the Dems' vote share to improve most in districts with a lot of young people and/or Hispanics. In general I think Dems are in good shape in any district where they get 45% or more of the 2-party primary vote. Here is the Dem share of the 2-party vote in the interesting districts:

      3 (Garamendi v Vann): 51.4%. Likely D. I'll eat my hat if the GOP wins any district in the general that they didn't win in the primary barring a major scandal.

      7 (Bera v Lungren): 43.7%. Tossup. The primary results suggest tilt R, but I think this tilts D based on the 2010 result and changes in the district boundaries.

      9 (McNerney v Gill): 47.8%. Lean D to likely D. This is a heavily Hispanic district where far more Dems will show up in Nov than in June, and I don't think people will be impressed with the 24 year old Gill.

      10 (spaceman Hernandez v Denham): 40.5%. Lean R? This one is tough to figure because Chad Condit got 15% of the primary vote, and a lot of these voters could go either way.

      16 (Costa v Whelan): 52.5%. Likely D.

      21 (not-spaceman Hernandez v Valadao): 43.0%. Tossup, tilt R. That's close to the 43.7% Bera got in a race everyone thinks is a tossup, and this is one of the youngest, most Hispanic districts in the state. Hernandez has run a half-ass campaign so far, but this district is absolutely winnable and it comes down entirely to Hispanic turnout.

      24 (Capps v Maldonado): 47.3%. Lean D to likely D. Capps should win this by 5-10.

      26 (Brownley v Strickland): 46.0%. Lean D. Parks got 18%, and Brownley should be better positioned than Strickland to pick most of these up. I think she wins with room to spare.

      31 (DERP): 48.5%. If Dems hadn't split like idiots, they would have had easy pickings here in November.

      36 (Ruiz v MBM): 41.9%. Lean R. Ruiz may get to 45%, but I don't see him getting to 50.

      41 (Takano v Tavaglione): 45.4%. Lean D. As you mention, Boxer won fairly easily here. Tavaglione is a good fit, but Takano did well in a House race 20 years ago and should win.

      47 (Lowenthal v DeLong): 49.3%. Lean D to likely D. The OP called out Lowenthal for opposing high speed rail, but if anything that will help him in the general.

      52 (Peters v Bilbray): 48.6%. Tilt D or even lean D. Peters is a good fit and Dems doesn't have to improve much at all on their primary % to get over the hump. It seems highly unlikely that many of Saldana's voters will stay home or defect to Bilbray.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 09:46:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  actually Ca-41 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, CF of Aus

      is not going to be as easy as I originally though it was.
      The best I'd rate it is tossup/tilt D

      I'm finishing up a diary (sorry for the delay been busy with work and hope to have it out by the end of the week) that will explain my reasoning.
      All I will say right now is Tavaglione is actually pretty popular with many Dems.

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:42:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My CA-10 diary of today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, KingofSpades, CF of Aus

    I went to a meet-and-greet fundraiser for Jose Hernandez (CA-10) last week.

    Diary about that is here.

    Please feel free to discuss that race in my diary as well as in this one.

    I'm not familiar precisely with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was. -- Mitt the Twit

    by Senor Unoball on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 09:01:07 AM PDT

  •  I think you're putting too much weight (5+ / 0-)

    on the June primary results without factoring in who didn't turn out. Let's look at some specifics:

    CA-03: Garamendi underperforming Tauscher is not unexpected. First, this area didn't turn blue until 1996, so there are many residual Republicans here. Second, many of the new Dems are Latinos or other low-turnout groups in Concord, Antioch, and Fairfield. Third, Garamendi is more liberal than Tauscher. Since Garamendi got a majority in June despite low turnout (especially low Dem turnout), he's in good shape.

    CA-09: Gill will not be able to make hay of McNerney's move because the average voter doesn't give a damn about it. Also, the new areas that were added to the district are all heavily Dem: Antioch and central Stockton. I say likely Dem.

    CA-24: Capps has represented this area before, and Maldonado turns off conservative Republicans. They might stay home instead. Capps also has a monstrous amount of cash on hand, and Maldonado doesn't have any. I say likely Dem.

    CA-41: Republicans actually don't fare too well in Riverside- and Moreno Valley-centric races (see 90s-era AD-64). The only reason why these areas are currently red is due to gerrymandering.

    CA-47: Long Beach's congressional district was GOP-held until 2000, so it's not surprising that Lowenthal didn't fare well in June. Opposition to HSR won't really hurt him either since it's currently not very popular. It's likely Dem.

    Other than that, great job!

    22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

    by kurykh on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:32:45 AM PDT

    •  CA-24 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kurykh

      wouldn't most Republicans turn out anyway to vote for Stoker (or whatever his name is) in the Senate race? They might undervote in the Congressional race, but I don't expect that to make a significant dent in the race.

      Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:41:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  SD-19 (Jackson-Stoker) isn't a target (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, lordpet8, CF of Aus

        Most of the GOP efforts will be devoted to next door's SD-27 (Pavley-Zink), and Stoker has an uphill battle due to Santa Barbara and Oxnard. Also, SD-19's GOP base is Santa Maria, which is Maldonado's base. The more conservative/teabaggy areas are in San Luis Obispo County to the north, which is outside the state senate district.

        22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

        by kurykh on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:56:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Inland Santa Barbara (0+ / 0-)

          Has lots of tea partiers.

          I used to live in liberal Santa Barbara City but when I traveled the 154 over the Santa Ynez Mountains, I felt a very conservative atmosphere in towns such as Santa Ynez. The atmosphere is pretty rancherish too with religion as well. Also, there were gigantic bush signs in 2004 in that area. It's super conservative there, I know someone who lived in Santa Ynez and said she was the only Democrat there.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 05:53:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  In regards CA-41 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kurykh

      while I can't vouch for Moreno Valley I can say that the city of Riverside has always had a strong libertarian streak along with a strong R party apparatus, which is why Republicans have done so well in the past.

      Though the changing demographics have made the area competive we still can't take this race for granted. Republicans are running an "A-rate" candidate who seems to have decent crossover support. Takano will have to give this race his all if we wants to win here as the Republicans are not going to just give this seat away without a real fight.

      If I were to ranks the three races of my hometown on odds of flipping to Dem it would be as follows
      AD 61> CA 41> SD 31

      The SD 31 race with Richard Roth (D) vs Jeff Miller (R) will be the marque race to see how Democratic Riverside is.

      ps do have any info on the AD 64 Race from the 1990's

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:10:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think you have 10 dead wrong (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    and are mis-underestimating ;) 21.10 is lean Democratic if anything.
    It my belief that the Republican votes in CD-21 and in particular in Kings County hit their ceiling on June 5th. With Obama on the ballot in November I would bet money in Vegas that turnout will double in CD-21. In which case 21 is lean Democratic or at best a toss up. I admit 21 is extremely confusing. I believe that the Valadao/Hernandez race in CD-21 is going to be dramatically influenced by turnout related to the Rios/Salas race in AD-32.

    U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 21ST CD - Vote For 1
    KERN COUNTY
    Completed Precincts: 127 / 127
                 VOTE COUNT  PERCENTAGE
    DAVID G. VALADAO    7044   44.47%
    JOHN HERNANDEZ      5210   32.89%
    BLONG XIONG         3530   22.29%
    Sub-Total          15784  100.00%
    Congress District 21st

    KINGS COUNTY
    Completed Precincts:34/34 100.00%
                  Vote Count   Percent
    DAVID G. VALADAO  10312     70.67%
    BLONG XIONG        2103     14.41%
    JOHN HERNANDEZ     2177     14.92%
    Sub-Total         14592    100.00%

    FRESNO COUNTY
    Completed Precincts:86/86 100.00%
                 VOTE COUNT  PERCENTAGE
    DAVID G. VALADAO  5809       55.50%
    BLONG XIONG       2772       26.48%
    JOHN HERNANDEZ    1858       17.75%
    Sub-Total        10439

    TULARE COUNTY
    Completed Precincts:11/11 100.00%
                 VOTE COUNT  PERCENTAGE
    DAVID G. VALADAO    939     67.07%
    BLONG XIONG         206     14.71%
    JOHN HERNANDEZ      247     17.64%
    Write-In              8      0.57%
    Sub-Total          1400    100.00%

    TOTALS in All FOUR COUNTIES
    DAVID G. VALADAO  24,104    57.09%
    JOHN HERNANDEZ     9,492    22.48%
    BLONG XIONG        5,801    12.03%
    VOTES CAST  42,215

    "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

    by hankmeister on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 02:45:44 PM PDT

    •  70% in Kings??? (0+ / 0-)

      I know it was lower turnout...but even Arnold couldn't get up to 70 in Kings.

      Age 19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
      Check out my blog at politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on almost everything else.
      Berkeley Class of 2015. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 03:34:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kings (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister

      In 2010 even with Hispanic turnout at rock bottom, Kings accounted for 26k votes out of 89k total in the old CA20. 2008 is probably a better comparison because it was a presidential year, and then it had 34k votes out of 125k in the district. The district has changed a bit, but Kings should have the same share of the vote since all of it it still in the district.

      Updated figures show it with about 15k votes out of 48k total in the primary, a much higher percentage than it should have in the general.

      Given that 125k showed up in 2008 I think you're right that turnout should more than double from the 48k in the primary.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 03:56:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  CD-10 and CD-21 should be lean and likely GOP (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      For CD-10, never underestimate the Republican strength in Modesto, Manteca, and Turlock. This is also a 50% Obama district and is R+5, which isn't quite blue enough to flip (all CA districts that turned blue in 2008 or 2010 were 51% Obama or higher).

      For CD-21, John Hernandez is simply too weak to go against Valadao. He raised only $32k and is practically invisible. If a congressional candidate is relying on a state assembly candidate to drag him across the finish line, then there is something seriously wrong.

      Another thing: it seems like everyone is implying Kings County = Republican, which isn't completely the case. The Fresno County areas are also heavily GOP, especially Coalinga and Kingsburg, as is Tulare. Remember that the local state assembly district (AD-30) turned from blue to red in 2008, admittedly for unrelated reasons. But this race is not in favor of Team Blue given current dynamics.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:59:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Some really good Californian Debate going on here! (0+ / 0-)

    There have been a few California diaries and I haven' read them all but I think you California experts need to have a lively race ratings debate over a few competitive California seats - I found the back and forth in the comments to be great stuff (as well as the diary of course). I think there should be more of it !

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 02:25:27 AM PDT

  •  Thoughts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    CA-3: Garamendi performed very strong in the primary, so I think it's more Likely Democratic.

    CA-9: McNerney has forged good connections in the San Joaquin County portion of the district and with Stockton in the district, he's pretty secure.

    CA-21: Hernandez has money issues, but Democrats still got a combined 43% in the primary, which doesn't rule out an upset. In 1998, Republicans got a combined majority of the vote in the open primary in a similar district, with Democrat Cal Dooley getting 43%. Dooley went on to win the general. He was an incumbent, but it sort of speaks to how primary numbers don't usually translate into general numbers.

    CA-24: Capps is running a strong campaign so far, playing a very strong offense against Maldonado. She's in top form.

    CA-26: Strickland has never won a race in a non-gerrymandered seat and he's at a disadvantage without Simi Valley in the district. Parks' supporters include a lot of moderates and Democrats in East County, so Brownley has a chance at picking up some of Parks' support.

    CA-41: In 2008, Bill Hedrick won the Riverside County portion of the Calvert's old gerrymandered district and even managed 48% there in 2010. With Moreno Valley and Perris in the new district, Takano has an edge.

    CA-47: Long Beach will give Lowenthal some very strong numbers, so I think it's closer to Likely Democratic.

    CA-52: This one I'd say was a toss-up, since there will be the presidential and mayoral elections on the ballot, which will draw out a lot of Democrats in San Diego proper. Peters only needs about 52% in San Diego proper to win the seat.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:26:26 AM PDT

  •  CA-36 (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone out here care to handicap or further analyze the rating for the new CA-36? I know Mary Bono Mack has become entrenched in this area, but is this new district really that safe for her? Do you think any of her recent votes will not play well in this district? And what of her opponent, Dr. Raul Ruiz? I know he's been a good fundraiser, and he's been on the DCCC Red-to-Blue program since this early spring.

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 11:04:05 AM PDT

  •  CD: 2 Thanks to a large field of Democrats (0+ / 0-)

    in our top 2 primary....we got a Republican in number 2 place who only got 15% of the primary vote.  If that isn't bizarro I don't know what is.  

    Without instant runoff or ranked voting in place it is a mockery of Democracy  to have a large field of contenders...whether it be a primary or an election.    

    In an election where winner takes all...it should be until someone hits 50% + 1

    "I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong." Richard Feynman

    by leema on Sun Jul 15, 2012 at 09:09:03 AM PDT

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