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Leading Off:

Michigan: Welcome to the Hotel California. A front group called the Michigan Alliance for Prosperity, apparently backed by the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity, just submitted almost twice as many signatures as required to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot this fall. The measure would require a two-thirds vote of the state legislature to raise any taxes—a move conservatives love, of course, and one which would also put the state on a path to being as ungovernable as California.

As you may know, the notorious 1978 ballot initiative in the Golden State called Proposition 13 imposed the same requirement on the California legislature, paving the way for regular cutbacks of government services because tiny minorities of Republicans can block any proposed tax hike. The proposed Michigan amendment has received little attention so far, but it may be one of the most important measures on the ballot this November.

2Q Fundraising:

CA-26: Julia Brownley (D): $637K raised, $320K cash-on-hand

CO-03: Sal Pace (D): $410K raised, $790K cash-on-hand

CT-Sen: Rep. Chris Murphy (D): $1.2 mil raised, $3.1 mil cash-on-hand

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D): $582K raised, $567K cash-on-hand

IN-02: Jackie Walorski (R): $330K raised, $720K cash-on-hand

KY-06: Rep. Ben Chandler (D): $398K raised, $1.3 mil cash-on-hand; Andy Barr (R): $392K raised, $758K cash-on-hand

MN-02: Rep. John Kline (R): $428K raised, $1.3 mil cash-on-hand

NH-02: Annie Kuster (D): $484K raised

NM-Sen: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D): $1.4 mil raised, $1.8 mil cash-on-hand

PA-07: Rep. Pat Meehan (R): ~$500K raised, $1.4 mil cash-on-hand

WA-10: Denny Heck (D): $310K raised, $1.1 mil cash-on-hand

House Majority PAC: $4.3 mil raised


AZ-Sen: Ironically enough, businessman Wil Cardon is out with two new 15-second ads hitting his GOP primary opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake, for being soft on illegal immigration—a day after the Arizona Republic published a big story showing that Cardon is far from pure when it comes to immigration matters himself. A brief summary:

In the case of immigration, some of Cardon's business interests have drawn scrutiny from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. A Subway franchise company co-owned by Cardon was fined three years ago for federal violations related to failure to document the legal status of more than 150 employees suspected of being illegal immigrants, federal and state records show.

Investigators for ICE reported that nearly half of the 315 employees at some Subway restaurants owned by RCC Partners were believed to be "undocumented alien workers." Investigators also reported that their employer failed to comply with federal employment-eligibility paperwork. Two of the ownership groups for RCC Partners are at least partly owned by Cardon, according to state corporate records.

Cardon's campaign is trying to defend their candidate by saying he "never exercised day-to-day control over this business." But Flake trackers have caught Cardon on tape claiming to be a very hands-on sort of guy, saying stuff like "the best way" to run a business is via "walk-around management" which means "you have to go out there" to the actual stores—something Cardon said he does "every day."

Flake immediately pounced, launching an ad attacking Cardon for hiring illegal aliens on the basis of this report. The spot is reportedly "part of a $200,000 statewide broadcast and cable television buy." Cardon also has yet another ad out, in which he runs off a list of fairly generic "he's not really a conservative" hits against Flake. But right now, Cardon is the one on the defensive.

HI-Sen: Dem Rep. Mazie Hirono's new minute-long ad starts out with a very compelling story she tells herself—about how her mother plotted to flee an abusive husband in Japan and literally "set sail for America" aboard the S.S. President Cleveland with an eight-year-old Mazie in tow. Halfway through, though, the spot abruptly changes gears, with Hirono saying how the experience taught her to be "self-reliant"... and then an announcer chiming in with her five-point plan to make Hawaii "more energy- and food-independent, too." I personally think the first half of the ad would stand well on its own.

MI-Sen: If businessman Clark Durant, who's running out of time to make a dent into ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra's big lead in the GOP primary, is going up on the air with a reported $385K buy. Durant unveiled the ad a month ago but apparently is only now airing it; the spot touts his work running a network of Christian private schools and taking over a bankrupt railroad. (I thought conservatives hated trains?)

Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow just announced she purchased $3.3 million in television ad time for the fall campaign. Despite the huge expenditure, she still has $4.5 mil left on hand as of the end of the second quarter.

MO-Sen: So it turns out that Republican John Brunner also paid taxes on a private plane late—a revelation about Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill last year that the GOP has been eager to exploit. There's a pretty considerable difference in size, though: Brunner's company, Vi-Jon Services, was fined $700 for late payment. McCaskill, however, owed $300K. I guess, though, that this puts Brunner in the situation of having to explain the distinction, rather than being able to make a clean hit on the incumbent.

MT-, OH-, VA-Sen: Crossroads GPS, the worst charity in the world, just launched three more ads in three hotly contested Senate races, claiming they're putting $2.5 million behind the whole effort. The Huffington Post says that nearly half is going to their Ohio spot, which uses a variety of imagery from different game shows (Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, etc.) to castigate Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown for being the "biggest supporter of the Obama agenda in Ohio."

Meanwhile, the Virginia spot goes after Democrat Tim Kaine on another one of those "check out this goofy thing in the stimulus!" plot lines. This time, it's "studying ants... in Africa!" ZOMG! And finally, the Montana ad attacks Dem Sen. Jon Tester, telling the usual lies about the Affordable Care Act.

Also in Montana, a group called the Montana Hunters and Anglers Leadership Fund is running an ad... attacking Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg. You might expect a group with a name like that to be pro-GOP by default, but their spot goes after Rehberg for voting for a bill which gave the Border Patrol and U.S. Customs broader access to federally-owned lands within 100 miles of the border—which those who like to hunt and fish worry will mean less access for the public. Another interesting detail is that the group is backed in part by the League of Conservation Voters, as reported Mike Dennison explains. Size of the buy: a serious $350K.

ND-Sen: We've got a couple of new Democratic ads out in North Dakota. The first is from the DSCC; it's a decently-enough done spot, attacking GOP Rep. Rick Berg, but to an astute political observer, it'll sound like they're reading off a polling memo that tells them which Democratic messages play well in a red state: Berg = one of richest members of Congress, voted to hike own pay, give tax breaks to millionaires, voted against increasing minimum wage, voted to "essentially end" Medicare.

That's actually not a bad array, though I think I'd prefer a more focused ad that doesn't try to kitchen-sink everything. And that's what Majority PAC has come up with, focusing extensively on the Medicare issue (i.e., Berg's vote in favor of the Ryan budget), with a quick hit on tax cuts for richie riches. The buy is reportedly "in the low six figures."

NE-Sen: Uh, WTF? Bob Kerrey's already established that he's running one of the weirdest campaigns this cycle... and now his own wife, Sarah Paley, has penned a piece in Vogue dissing him for deciding to make a comeback bid! I mean, yeah, hah hah, Paley is a comedy writer, but based on descriptions of the piece in the Omaha World-Herald, it doesn't seem like her essay is all that funny. And if people have to guess whether you're making a joke or not, then you've already failed. What's more, this is politics, where nerves are always on a knife's edge and sensitivities are sharp—making cracks about how hickish Nebraska seems to Paley, a New Yorker, is just never going to play well. I mean, did she think writing this piece would be a net positive for her husband? Oy vey.

So you can probably understand why in any other race, I'd call this ad a pretty good hit, nailing your opponent as a millionaire "welfare rancher" who's taken "$3 million in taxpayer subsidies"—"a sweetheart deal that only a handful of ranchers get." Unfortunately, the target is Republican state Sen. Deb Fischer, and the intended beneficiary is Bob Kerrey (courtesy the Nebraska Democratic Party), so it's just hard to see much point.

NV-Sen: You'd be forgiven if you got Patriot Majority USA and Majority PAC mixed up—not only are they both Democratic super PACs with similar names, but on Tuesday, they even sent out a press release together, touting both Patriot Majority's new Nevada ad and Majority PAC's new North Dakota spot (see ND-Sen item above). Patriot Majority also hits GOP Sen. Dean Heller on his vote for the Ryan plan—or I should say, pair of votes. Thanks to a wily move by Harry Reid, Heller became the only person in America to vote to end Medicare twice, once in the House, then again a few weeks later after he was elevated to the Senate when John Ensign resigned... and the ad most definitely delights in pointing this out. Size of the buy: $220K, though that includes production costs. (The Hill says $200K is going toward putting the spot on the air.)

TX-Sen: Either FreedomWorks, which is backing Ted Cruz in the runoff, just paid for an exceptionally expensive poll, or a bill for a bunch of polling came due all at once. The group filed an independent expenditure report for about $100K worth of surveys conducted by Basswood Research. Maybe a tracking poll?

WI-Sen: PPP's new look at the Wisconsin Senate race finds that Republican Eric Hovde's self-funded ad blitz has paid dividends: Hovde has catapulted into a lead over Tommy Thompson in the GOP primary, 31-29, shoving aside Thompson's other two more conservative opponents. Hovde is also performing just as well as Thompson against likely Dem nominee Tammy Baldwin, leading her 45-44 in November. Click through for our full analysis and all the numbers.

One of those conservative also-rans, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, is out with his first ad, reportedly backed by a $160K buy. It carries an ultra-conservative message:

Barack Obama thinks the government should make every decision for you. Now with Obamacare, he's forcing Church-run hospitals to provide abortion-causing drugs. It's bad enough Obamacare will bankrupt America, but government telling religion what to do? That should scare you to death."
And that's probably good news for ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson. To the extent Neumann can pick up any votes from movement conservatives, that ought to hurt businessman Eric Hovde, since he's competing for the same pool.

Speaking of advertising, can anyone tell me what exactly is EMILY's List thinking? They just filed an independent expenditure report for their new Wisconsin ad, which rather oddly attacks both Thompson and Hovde. But it turns out they're also spending money on web ads hitting all four Republicans running for Senate, including Neumann and Jeff Fitzgerald. That's just not how this game works. If you're going to subscribe to the Harry Reid school of "picking your opponent," then you've got to actually pick one person that you want to face and lay off them while you hammer their biggest rivals. Doing a full-spectrum blast against the entire GOP field makes no sense. (David Jarman & David Nir)


CA-52: Lori Saldana, who narrowly lost the top-two primary to fellow Democrat Scott Peters, has now endorsed him for the general election. Peters is challenging GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in this redrawn district in the La Jolla area to the west and north of San Diego. The seat went from Obama +4 to Obama +12 in redistricting, so it represents a strong pickup target for Democrats. Daily Kos Elections currently rates it a Tossup.

FL-16: The House Ethics Committee cleared GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan of charges that he failed "to report certain information regarding positions he held with certain entities, as well as income from those entities on his annual Financial Disclosure Statements." Basically, the committee found that "everybody does it," saying that up to half of the disclosures they review every year contain mistakes, and that they found "no evidence" that Buchanan's errors "were knowing or willful." But this was the least of ol' Vern's worries: He still has another ethics committee inquiry pending into more serious campaign finance allegations, as well as related investigations by the FBI and IRS.

MI-06: A group called the Direct Selling Association is spending $18K on a bunch of random media (ads in the Kalamazoo Gazette, radio spots, etc.) aimed at helping GOP Rep. Fred Upton, who faced a primary challenge from the right from ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. I'm trying to figure out why the DSA is getting involve here; they're a trade group for companies which sell "directly to consumers"—namely, door-to-door. One thought I had is that one of the best-known direct sellers is Michigan-based Amway, whose owners, the DeVos family, are big power-brokers in Republican politics. Indeed, two DeVoses (Amway president Doug and former president Dick) were honored by the DSA just last month. I have no idea if there's any actual connection between the DeVoses' interests and the DSA's decision to spend on Upton's behalf, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were one.

MI-11: So there will be a special election to replace ex-Rep. Thad McCotter after all. Gov. Rick Snyder just announced that a special primary will be held on Sept. 5, while the special general will coincide with the regularly-scheduled general election on Nov. 6. The special will take place under the old district lines, and the winner will only get to serve for the final two months of the year, so it doesn't sound like much of a prize. However, as we saw in a similar situation in WA-01, there is one compelling reason for candidates to run in both races: You can raise twice as much money from big donors, since the normal cap of $2,500 per contributor get doubled because you're running in two elections.

NC-08: Eric Cantor's YG Action Fund is upping its involvement in the NC-08 GOP primary. First it was mailers (PDF) attacking dentist Scott Keadle; now they've upgraded to television and radio ads. Their TV spot tries to accuse Keadle of "vot[ing] to grab over a million bucks" of "failed stimulus" money while he served on the Iredell County Commission. The ad is very weak, lingering on Obama and taking almost 18 seconds to even mention Keadle's name, but it's backed by a hefty $358K buy. (There's another $23K thrown in on those mailers, too.)

Yesterday, we also mentioned that YG's comrades-in-arms, the American Action Network, was also going up on the air. Their ad is now available; it tries to liken Keadle to an onion (seriously). AAN's claim is that Keadle isn't actually the conservative he claims to be, so if you "cut through enough layers... what you find might surprise you." The problem with this metaphor is that if you slice into an onion... inside is still a fucking onion! If you are surprised at what lies inside, then you have either never eaten an onion or you are a moron.

NM-01: Hrm, what's all this about? Local writer Joe Monahan reports that state Sen. Eric Griego has still not yet endorsed Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, the winner of the Democratic primary last month—but he's been busy sending out fundraising emails for other candidates, including at least one out of state (MN-05 Rep. Keith Ellison). Sorry, but not cool. I'm a big believer in the notion that if you lose a primary, unless the winner is totally unacceptable (and I'm talking Kesha Rogers-level), you endorse the winner, period.

WI-02: Democrat Kelda Roys is out with a pair of new ads. In the first spot, she talks about how she "stood up to Gov. Walker and vote to stop his corporate tax giveaways" in the state legislature. The second ad is very similar to the first, both in content (mentioning the Walker fight) and appearance (she speaks to the camera in front of the same backdrop wearing the same shirt).

And it looks like Roys's Democratic primary opponent, fellow state Rep. Mark Pocan, is also up with his first ad, talking about how his parents taught him "how to run a business and how to treat employees and customer fairly." The only partisan notes come when Pocan notes he runs a "union print shop" and when he says he "stood up to" Walker when he "wanted tax breaks for wealthy corporations." (Both candidates' buys (are reportedly in the $50K range.)

Given that this is a very liberal district centered around the city of Madison, I'm surprised at how relatively soft the progressive messages in both campaigns' advertising are. Pretty much everyone promises to "protect Medicare and Social Security." How about offering some red meat to the liberal base? It's not like Republicans are contesting this 70% Obama seat in November.

Other Races:

WI Recall: It's finally, finally over: Former Republican state Sen. Van Wanggaard has decided not to challenge the results of his recall election in court, after a recount failed to budge Democrat John Lehman's 800-vote lead. That officially gives Democrats control of the Senate by a 17-16 margin, but the legislature is out of session until next year, so Dems now have to hold the chamber this November to be able to thwart GOP Gov. Scott Walker's legislative agenda. (One positive is that at least now there's no way Walker will call a special session this year.) I'm also going to guess that we won't see any further recalls in Wisconsin for quite some time.

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: Rachel Weiner at the Washington Post has some background on the latest GOP player in the dark money world: American Commitment, a brand-new 501(c)(4) that recently started airing ads attacking Democrats in five different Senate races. Like all such "charities," American Commitment isn't obligated to disclose either its donors or expenditures, but Weiner did dredge up a little bit of background on the group's founder, "Phil Kerpen, who previously spent five years working at Americans for Prosperity. Before that, he worked for the Club for Growth, a Club offshoot called the Free Enterprise Fund and the libertarian Cato Institute." AFP, as you know, is the Koch brothers' outfit, but of course Kerpen refused to say anything about whether the Kochs are behind his new organization.

Weiner also has some more detailed numbers on what the group is claiming to spend in each race, but unless she's relying on media trackers, there's no way to verify any of this—like I said, the group doesn't have to share a single detail about how it uses its money. But in any event:

There’s $1.2 million behind two ads attacking Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, $1.1 million behind an ad attacking Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida, a little under $500,000 hitting Rep. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, $114,000 against Rep. Martin Heinrich in New Mexico and $110,000 against Rep. Shelley Berkley in Nevada. The group is going on the air next week in North Dakota, attacking Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp on health care.
That Heitkamp buy is for a reported $115K.

WATN?: Dino Rossi—he of the two losing gubernatorial campaigns and one losing Senate campaign—has finally found his way back into political office. How did he do it? It's simple: just get appointed, instead of actually having to win an election. As was expected, he's just been tapped to fill his vacant old Washington state Senate seat in LD-05 in the Eastside suburbs, though he's only a caretaker until the November election. In fact, he won't even have to do anything other than collect $17,000 for his efforts, as the legislature won't even be in session. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Who is going to report raising the most money (0+ / 0-)

    in the 2nd quarter? I mean for the Democrats and for the House. I am guessing Kennedy but I am hoping that it is not an ...erman and I would like it to be Ehrlich.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 05:22:36 AM PDT

  •  Maine: Obama 49-35 (14+ / 0-)

    Senate race:  King 55  Summers 27   Dill 7.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 05:24:09 AM PDT

  •  O +11 in NM, +7 in PA (9+ / 0-)

    according to We Ask America.

    PA Senate Casey +14
    NM Senate Heinrich +9

    •  in their other recent state polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      they had O +1 in FL, +4 in CO, and -5 in VA. Don't know too much about this company but they seem intent on making a mark.

      •  It is an arm (9+ / 0-)

        of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers Association.  It is basically a Republican pollster, but it got a lot of races right in 2010.  Consensus seems to be that it effed the Virginia poll by failing to weight for race.  Otherwise their results seem pretty mainstream, leaning a little Republican.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:02:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The two WI-Gov polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Putting Walker up 12....

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:43:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  don't forget their WI-SD-12 poll (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            with Holperin only up by 2.

            Other polls from 2010, conducted 10/31 (and rounded to the nearest tenths digit)

            IL-08: WAA R+3.0, actual R+0.2 (error: R+2.8)
            IL-10: WAA R+9.0, actual R+2.2 (error: R+6.8)
            IL-11: WAA R+10.2, actual R+14.6 (error: D+4.4)
            IL-14: WAA R+5.0, actual R+6.2 (error: D+1.2)
            IL-17: WAA R+8.0, actual R+9.6 (error: D+1.6)

            While they are not consistently off in the R direction like Rasmussen is, they have had that effect in the (admittedly few) Wisconsin polls they've put out so far.

            Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:58:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They missed WI-GOV (0+ / 0-)

            by one more point than PPP did.  Those illinois results from sapelcovits were pretty good for house polling.  And they nailed the PA-12 special election.  I am not prepared to dismiss them as a bad pollster for missing WI-GOV any more than I am PPP.  I will just throw their results on the pile with he others and try to sort it out.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 10:40:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  PPP (0+ / 0-)

              Is up-front about its partisan leanings. WAA tries to hide the fact that it's an arm of the Illinois Manufacturers' Association.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 02:14:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hehe are you freaking kidding me telling me that? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                I LITERALLY wrote the book on that.


                These guys are scoundrels.  They are also non-transparent about sample composition and use at least one questionable method as I explain below.

                But they also have a have a half decent track record.  I don't dismiss them.  That's all.  

                And I think PPP is great.  One of the best if not the best.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Thu Jul 12, 2012 at 08:14:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Means lead is likely a little larger (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, KingTag, bear83, askew

      in each state.  Given WAA's track record.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 05:55:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't assume that. Rather... (0+ / 0-)

        ...I think they're like Rasmussen, a mix of polls in the same ballpark as everyone else, and polls that are completely wrong in the GOP's favor.

        WAA just isn't a good pollster, and like Rasmussen I think their numbers are best treated as entertainment more than information.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:21:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  See my comment above (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          They had too many credible results in 2010 to be dismissed, including nailing PA-12 when nobody else did.  They missed WI-GOV by 5 and PPP missed it by 4.  Somehow WAA's miss feels worse but it is not.  As for Holperin, I would direct you to PPP's awful misses in IL-10 primary and the NY-23 special.   Shit happens.  A few misses does not a bad pollster make.  I'll give WAA another cycle to prove itself.

          My problem with them is two-fold: they are non-transparent about sample composition and I have heard they do not weight for race.  Both of these practices are unsound, and the latter explains their VA outlier poll.  But overall there is not enough evidence to dismiss their top lines as "entertainment."

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 11:00:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Those things are not comparable (0+ / 0-)

            The PPP misses you cite include a crazy special election where the miss is 100% forgiveable, and a private poll for a primary client where, yes, they blew it, and they took responsibility for it, but it doesn't have the same feel as a general election poll or a poll for a primary in a Senate or Governor's race (House races are notoriously difficult to poll).  And if you're going to mention IL-10 at all, WAA had a bigger miss 2 years ago by calling it for Dold by 10(!).

            The WI-Gov misses were not comparable, I think it's not just margin that counts.  WAA showed a blowout, while PPP had only its last poll showing modest tightening but had a bigger margin just like Marquette Law in a previous effort.

            Ultimately PPP has a longer track record and a very good one.  It estalblished some cred before these recent misses.  WAA is newer and has had misses all along, which demands much more severe skepticism.

            But I'll say this, I did shout out here that PPP blew it in the AZ-08 special, and in fact they did the exact same thing as WAA in WI-Gov.  PPP said Barber by 12, and it was 7, the exact same error as WAA.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 12:42:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Where I come from (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              5 points is 5 points.  But we are simple folk here.

              PPP has a longer track record and an excellent one, but WAA has a short but competent track record of its own.  I don't see the evidence for dismissing their results, at least not yet.  They had a tossup between Bean and Walsh when no-one else did.  They hit PA-12 on the head when no-one else did.  In addition to the Illinois polls cited by sapelcovits above, which I still maintain were pretty good notwithstanding the miss in IL-10, WAA nailed WI-07 and IL-SEN.  There are misses like any pollster, but the track record does not justify laughing off this pollster.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 01:00:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Also looks about right. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Maybe Obama is doing a little better, but typically WAA actually doesn't have that much of a GOP lean. In 2010, it even produced a reasonable NV-Sen poll.

      •  Now that's a big endorsement (0+ / 0-)

        from our SSP atdleft!

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:55:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it seems to fit with other polling (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I'm still nervous about PA. I think I'm remembering the polls last year having it close, and I guess, the ID law worries me as well.

        But it does seem like Obama has a solid lead there. If he can go into Sept with PA, WI, and MI fairly secure, and with solid leads in VA, CO and NV, and NC close, he's looking pretty good. Not sure if we'll see that though, especially in WI and MI.

  •  Priorities USA Polls (11+ / 0-)

    CO - O49-42
    FL - O48-44
    OH - O48-41
    PA - O49-40
    VA - O46-43

    At first I was worried these were cherry picked (what about NV, NC, IA, and NH?), but I looked it up and these were the only five states where Priorities USA has spent significantly.  It has spent just a tiny bit in NV, and nothing in NC, IA, or NH.  The main thrust of the polls is to show that Priorities USA advertising is working, so it is only natural that it would poll the states where it has run a significant number of ads.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 05:59:58 AM PDT

    •  Thanks for posting these (0+ / 0-)

      I couldn't read the chart at the link, my browser just rendered the space blank.

    •  I'm assuming some D lean (0+ / 0-)

      in polling commissioned by a D Super-PAC, but the numbers don't look too implausible.

      I would like to believe that Obama is doing as strongly in Ohio as this poll suggests (even a couple of points worse would be ok). Pushing Ohio into a D-leaning state by say 2 points would actually give Obama a potentially important edge in the electoral college and might allow him to survive a popular vote deficit in excess of 1% if other states retain roughly their current leans.  

      •  I don't add or subtract (6+ / 0-)

        from polls based on the source.  I just try to place them into context given all available data.  The last OH poll was O by 9.  Several FL polls have been O by 4.  PPP was O by 7 in CO.  WAA was O by 7 in PA just today.  And O by 3 in VA is probably right on the polling average.  These all check out OK to me, subject as always to further information.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:30:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And other than Ohio... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, NMLib

              Their other polls look pretty reasonable. He'll, they even paint a more pessimistic picture in Virginia than most of the other pollsters! All in all, this looks about right.

          •  Romey has been significantly (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27, Davidsfr, askew, James Allen, MBishop1

            outspent in OH, including all SuperPACs.  The last two OH polls are O by 9 and now O by 7.  I can't call either outliers until I see some more.  OH is also a place where I would expect the Bain attacks to really work well.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:57:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  The numbers look 100% honest to me (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, spiderdem, askew, atdnext, itskevin, MBishop1

          It makes perfect sense that this polling is honest and accurate, not spin.

          Unlike a campaign, Priorities USA doesn't have the same need to keep its numbers private, and it has a greater need to release them if they're good.  They need to raise as much money as possible from reluctant rich Dems, and showing that their work so far has really helped is the best way to do that.

          And revealing dishonest numbers can only hurt them down the road, they don't want to show overoptimistic results that get called out.

          The numbers themselves, as spiderdem points out, are consistent with the totality of polling.  Only Colorado and Ohio are better for us than the averages, but there are other credible polls in those states with numbers in the same ballparks, so even those two are OK here.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:09:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Averages (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Pennsylvania +7.8
            Colorado +3.0
            Virginia +3.0
            Ohio +2.6
            Florida +0.8

            Those are RCP. So, more favorable in all except Virginia. But there are similar polls out there to each.

            Quinnipiac in Ohio and Florida, PPP in Colorado, Franklin & Marshall in PA. And if WAA are leaning right then probably some confirmation from them in PA, FL and CO.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 11:02:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  YOU BEAT PALEO!!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Watch yer back, he's comin' to git ya now!!!

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:05:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cardon pulls the Ken Lay defense on undocumented (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    workers - here's hoping it works as well for him as it did for Ken Lay.

    Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

    by absdoggy on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:13:39 AM PDT

  •  MI-11: McCotter just stuck voters w/$650,000 bill (0+ / 0-)
  •  When they say (4+ / 0-)
    A front group called the Michigan Alliance for Prosperity, apparently backed by the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity,
    what they really mean is
    A front group called the Michigan Alliance for The Prosperous, apparently backed by the Koch brothers' Americans for The Prosperous.
  •  Dumb question for CA Kossacks... (0+ / 0-)

    Could the more onerous Proposition 13 requirements be reversed by ballot initiative?  Would that be a wise political strategy

  •  I'm kind of baffled (0+ / 0-)

    by the attack "He supports the Obama 'agenda.'" What "agenda"? I'm also baffled by the Democratic response in Ohio in the Senate race: that Sherrod Brown does NOT blindly support the Obama "agenda." In fact, since opposition to most of that so-called "agenda" is based on cruelty, greed, selfishness and lack of compassion, why would you boast about this? I'm really uncomfortable with any Democrat — let alone Sherrod Brown — running on their independence from President Obama, especially given what his opposition embodies.

    On the other hand, Sherrod's execrable opponent, Josh "The Empty Suit" Mandel, is also claiming he will be this bold, independent voice in the Senate — which is falling-down hilarious considering that in the state legislature he was a back-bench, silent rubber stamp who never introduced legislation, spoke up on anything, or took up strong advocacy for any position or issue. In fact, he's consistently refused to reveal his stances on most issues other than to support the party platform without comment.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

    by anastasia p on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 06:44:24 AM PDT

  •  I think that the prop 13 clone will pass (7+ / 0-)

    It's just so simple and populist that unless you do MASSIVE voter education, it's going to pass in a landslide.  And even then, I'm pessimistic.

    As much as I hate this kind of thing, I think the best route against it is California bashing (ie. California did this, now look what happened).

    You might be able to frame as a powergrab by a party that wants veto power even when they're in a tiny minority, but I'm not sure if anybody cares.

    Question for Californians: Has Prop 13 repeal ever gotten very far?

  •  Murphy is going to need a lot more money... (0+ / 0-)

    Because Linda McMahon will drop another $25M in self-funding once she gets the primary nod, and Murphy doesn't have the Blumenthal brand name to protect him.

    Linda McMahon spent self-funded near $50M for her 2010 run.  She had promised that she wasn't going to self-fund this time but already "loaned" her campaign $5M - so you know if she's getting close she'll self-fund $20M+ again.  

  •  NE-Sen: that's a real good ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, KingofSpades

    I feel sorry for our Democratic brothers and sisters in Nebraska, they've got it tough, and it keeps getting only tougher for them.  And they don't enjoy a demographic shift that will help them in the future, like Dems in places like Georgia and Texas know they have.

    But that's a damn good ad against Fischer, and under different, and better, circumstances it would make a difference.  It's not so easy to tease out tidbits of oppo into an effective ad, whoever found that nugget of her receiving subsidies didn't have something that obviously would've looked like a great ad.  It took real work and thoughtfulness to connect dots to her personal fortune and then have admakers convert it all into an effective TV ad script.

    But alas, Bob Kerrey looks like a goner unless something hugely unexpected happens going forward.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:26:07 AM PDT

  •  Here's a good laugh (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, SLDemocrat, atdnext

    Mitt's son has a Spanish language ad... (translation here)

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:31:10 AM PDT

  •  ROFLMAO (4+ / 0-)

    "The measure would require a two-thirds vote of the state legislature to raise any taxes—a move conservatives love, of course, and one which would also put the state on a path to being as ungovernable as California."

    Oh yeah... that'll help. Just what the doctor ordered. LOL. If the doctor is Jack Kevorkian. Chortle, (really big chortle). Go for it MI! YOU'RE GONNA LOVE IT!

    Signed: A Californian

  •  ME-Init (9+ / 0-)

    Critical Insights poll for Portland Press Herald. Gay marriage leads 57-35.

    Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:36:30 AM PDT

  •  Online Media and Political Leanings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    eBay and Farmville on the Right,
    xkcd and BuzzFeed on the Left.

    For the election microtargeters....

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:37:12 AM PDT

  •  Top 10 ad markets for 7/9 to 7/15 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, itskevin
    1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1,000, Obama 985, Crossroads 430, AFP 200, Priorities 155)
    2. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 975, Romney 820, Crossroads 450, AFP 330)
    3. Tampa, FL (Romney 920, Obama 765, Crossroads 430, AFP 223. Priorities 185)
    4. Denver, CO (Obama 1,000, Romney 860, Crossroads 300, Priorities 150, AFP 140)
    5. Orlando, FL (Romney 900, Obama 860, Crossroads 340, AFP 170, Priorities 150)
    6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 900, Romney 800, Crossroads 200, AFP 180, Priorities 155)
    7. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 975, Romney 450, Crossroads 490, AFP 395)
    8. Greenville-New Bern, NC (Romney 850, Obama 600, Crossroads 415, AFP 300)
    9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 830, Obama 800, Crossroads 275, AFP 200)
    10. Cleveland (Obama 915, Romney 650, Crossroads 200, AFP 150, Priorities 120)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:41:02 AM PDT

    •  Not that this really makes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      a big difference one way or another, but has anyone ever brought up the fact that Rove is involved with Crossroads, which is a lot of money for an outside group, while still writing a column for The WSJ's editorial page? Seems like a pretty massive conflict of interest, no?

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:12:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  interesting that 2 NC markets are right up there (0+ / 0-)

      Clearly both sides still think it's a very close race.  

      I'm a bit surprised there aren't more OH markets high on the list. Romney needs to win there almost as badly as he does in FL, while Obama would be about 3/4 of the way to re-election if he wins the state. It should be about as competitive as CO and has twice the number of EVs.

      •  I would warn against (0+ / 0-)

        over-interpreting this data.  These market-by-market figures are only so useful, and interpretation requires access to a lot of data about advertising strategies that we don't have.  I think total ad spending by swing state is much more telling for us outsiders, but for some reason First Read has stopped running its weekly lists of that.  It is periodically available from other sources.

        Leading NC markets dropped off of this list for three weeks in a row, and I extrapolated that NC was becoming less of a priority.  Then I looked at the big picture data, and NC ad spending was actually increasing even as its top markets dropped out of the Top 10.  So I was totally wrong.  I find it interesting that two NC markets now have snuck back on the list, but I am not even going to try to interpret that.  I am going to keep my eye on the larger picture.

        My humble takeaway from this data: Colorado is probably a really BFD, Florida's I-4 corridor is hotly contested, and various markets in VA, OH, and NC are hotly contested.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:06:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  thanks, I was wondering about this too (0+ / 0-)

          it could be that some states just have fewer, larger individual markets and so are more likely to figure on the top 10 list.

          •  I think what is even (0+ / 0-)

            more byzantine than the makeup of each states's media markets, and that is byzantine in and of itself, is how each campaign decides to circulate its ads through those markets and when and why.  Something I know absolutely nothing about.

            First Read pointed out that, if you look at just these markets, it looks like Team Romney is outspending Team Obama or at least very competitive.  Yet, in point of fact, Team Obama is outspending Team Romney 2-1 this week. That alone shows you how misleading this data is out of context in trying to see the big picture.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:15:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  gosh it would be good to see the state-by-state (0+ / 0-)

              numbers. Is this really just not available?

              •  No it is out there. (0+ / 0-)

                National Journal had them through June, with graphs showing week-by-week.  I hope that will be updated continually.  I don't know how to link to it on my phone, but in my comment history there is a comment "ad spending" about a week ago that links to it.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:38:14 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Colorado, Colorado, Colorado..... (0+ / 0-)

      Strikes me as an unlikely nexus point for this election cycle.

      •  it was the tipping-point state in 08 (0+ / 0-)

        and the second closest to the national average after VA. So it would surely be surprising if it didn't receive a lot of attention from both sides unless there were some good reason for thinking its partisan lean has changed significantly over the past 4 years.

  •  WI-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, redrelic17, KingofSpades

    Laura Ricketts launches new super PAC for lesbian candidates:

    Male, currently staying in CA-24. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:46:47 AM PDT

  •  NM-Gov 2014: AG Gary King is in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades

    This means that Balderas can either run for AG to replace King or take him head on in a gubernatorial race. I'd like him to do the latter (we need some exciting statewide Hispanic Democrats), but I'm thinking he's more likely to go for the AG nod.

    "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

    by xcave on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:55:38 AM PDT

  •  PPP Wisconsin: Obama 50-44 (7+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:21:27 AM PDT

  •  Do not underestimate the horror of the 2/3 (7+ / 0-)


    Note the irony of California law that allows you to pass by a majority various laws requiring supermajority votes.

    Note that it doesn't take a 2/3 vote to lower taxes.

    Note that in California it also takes a 2/3 vote to adjust taxes even if the net take by the state ended up the same, because some taxes would be raised.

    It means that in California, 36% of the legislature can and does set state policy.

    It means that in California, crazy and inappropriate deals have been made to get those last 2-3 votes, including tidbits like additional spending on horse racing at county fairgrounds.

    Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

    by elfling on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:24:24 AM PDT

    •  WA has passed something like this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, sapelcovits, supercereal

      a couple times - it sounds reasonable to a lot of non-conservative voters who don't realize or understand the full implication.

      Thing is, in WA state, it directly violates the state constitution so it keeps getting thrown out.

    •  How do we Michiganders fight this? (0+ / 0-)

      It sounds like a good idea to most uniformed people. My husband and I refused to sign this petition. I actually got into an argument with the dolt who was collecting the signatures because he was convincing others around me that ITS REALLY GOOD TO MAKE IT HARD TO RAISE TAXES!!11!

      Unfortunately, even though I tried to convince the others present how impossible this makes governing, they all signed the petition.

      •  Sell it as a ideological minority wants control (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elfling, frey60

        with only 36% of the vote.  I'd try something like "36% isn't a majority. Democracy means 50%"  

        Far right ideologues want to game the system and it's bankrupting California.  

      •  One of the interesting consequences is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        that there is a real push and incentive, in reaction, to turn those last 5 republican seats to democrats.

        The net result is:

        36% of the legislature controls policy... because it's not just about taxes but comes into play in every aspect of state policy

        To fight it, the majority of the state is highly motivated to ensure that the minority position is less than 33% in the legislature. It creates a hyperpartisan atmosphere, where people in safe Democratic districts are contributing to elections in other districts so their home legislators can act.

        Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

        by elfling on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 11:13:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  MI can barely... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      pass a budget with a simple majority.  Requiring a 2/3 vote would be a disaster.  

  •  Jon Ralston paints a gruesome picture for Shelley (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Berkley, BUT pay close attention to his last lines. He may sometimes engage in histrionics, but he's not stupid. Dean Heller can beat his chest and do a victory lap now, but he still hasn't won.

    In fact, one thing Ralston has wrong is Democrats' enthusiasm level. Just go to a NVDems field office, and you'll see what's being done for Shelley. That can't be discounted.

    •  I can't believe she was Reid's pick... (0+ / 0-)

      Dems must have a shallow bench in Nevada.  Rory Reid for Gov and now Berkeley for Senate seat...

    •  I'd be curious for DCC's take (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      But all this national pundit bloviating about Berkely strikes me as, well, just national pundit bloviating. I'm not buying this at all.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 10:01:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And Ralston's logic toward the end (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Really doesn't hold up. He says that 2012 is not 2008, so that makes things worse for Berkley. Sure, fine. But then he says that Heller's no Sharron Angle and Berkley's no Harry Reid. However, those are "2010" issues. Yes, Berkley's a weaker candidate than Reid and Heller is stronger than Angle, but the proper comparison is 2012 to 2010. 2008 is irrelevant.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 10:03:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm surprised & skeptical this hurts Berkley (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir

        There's not really any wait-and-see attitude on Ralston's or other political reporters' part.  They think Berkley is toast.  Ralston says "not quite" but really the whole tone of his story is she's probably toast, he's just slightly less certain of it.

        The thing that makes me still skeptical is Heller's own attack ad that Ralston linked.  Heller attacks Berkley's ethics matter but never says what it's about.  His ad talks loosely of her using her office for financial gain, but without mentioning at all any substance.  That's really rare in an attack ad hitting on ethics...any such attack ad I can recall always includes a soundbite on substance.  There will be, for a made-up example, a line such as "Congressman Bob Smith helped get a government contract for a construction company that gave him a political contribution and also a discount on building his home."  Something, anything, to identify what the whole thing is about.  But Heller's ad doesn't mention it.

        And I know why:  it's because any mention of kidney transplant center or Berkley's husband being a kidney transplant doctor instantly makes her more sympathetic.

        That's the thing I can't get around.  Heller's own ad implicitly admits you can't talk about the issue itself without disarming the attack.

        I think Ralston and national pundits are making a lot of premature and IMO unfounded assumptions about how this plays with voters.

        I could be wrong about that, but I don't buy it that this hurts Berkley unless and until polling actually says so.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 10:36:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  We won't see further recalls in Wisconsin soon? (0+ / 0-)

    After all the whining from the Republicans about the evils of recall, some are already saying they plan to recall Lehman at the earliest possible date, next July.

  •  My message as a Californian to my (6+ / 0-)

    brethren in Michigan.

    Two-thirds vote requirement for raising taxes:  DO NOT DO IT.

    A travesty.  It's called "minority rule."

    The most violent element in society is ignorance.

    by Mr MadAsHell on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:41:59 AM PDT

  •  Oregon state house (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, KingofSpades, supercereal

    Republicans waste money on a D+13 state house district in Beaverton.

    Also, Matt Wingard whines about how people dug up his past to ruin his career.  You know, about him abusing his son and providing alcohol to minors and having relations with his young female staffers.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 09:04:53 AM PDT

  •  Marquette Law Poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, Mark27, askew

    Obama 51%
    Romney 43%

    Thompson 35%
    Hovde 23%

    Thompson 45%
    Baldwin 41%

    Baldwin 44%
    Hovde 38%

  •  Michigan Taxation Amendment (0+ / 0-)

    If this passes, Americans for Prosperity will undoubtedly push identical measures in every state that permits initiatives. I'm surprised it doesn't pop up as frequently as those 'life begins at conception' measures, actually. Defeating it may stymie its momentum; beyond the Progress Michigan group mentioned in the article linked in the digest, is there a concerted effort to oppose this disaster? I'd like to make a donation... this is one of those issues about which I feel strongly. (And, while we're at it, let's support this redistricting measure in Ohio!)

    On that Dino Rossi story... I'm a perennial loser as well. Does that mean I get $17,500, too?

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