Yeah, about that ...
Like a summer thunderstorm that just drifts over your neighborhood, consider this a deluge of electoral number goodness. More polls were released today than in the previous week. Indeed, at nearly 30 polls, this is the highest volume day in months, and one of the three highest all cycle to-date.
Suffice to say, there's a lot to digest here, so let's dive right in. On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney d. Obama (44-43)
COLORADO (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
FLORIDA (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama d. Romney (48-44)
MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama d. Romney (48-34)
NEW MEXICO (We Ask America—R): Obama d. Romney (51-40)
OHIO (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama d. Romney (48-41)
PENNSYLVANIA (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama d. Romney (49-40)
PENNSYLVANIA (We Ask America—R): Obama d. Romney (47-40)
VIRGINIA (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama d. Romney (46-43)
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (51-43)
WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
FL-SEN (Rasmussen): Connie Mack IV (R) 46, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 37A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 55, Charlie Summers (R) 27, Cynthia Dill (D) 7
ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 57, Jon Courtney (R) 31
ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 47, Kevin Raye (R) 35
ME-MARRIAGE EQUALITY (Critical Insights): Favor 57, Oppose 35
NM-SEN (FM3—D): Martin Heinrich (D) 49, Heather Wilson (R) 45
NM-SEN (We Ask America—R): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 42
NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 43, Walter Dalton (D) 36, Barbara Howe (L) 9
PA-SEN (We Ask America—R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 53, Tom Smith (R) 39
TX-SEN—R (Baselice and Associates for Dewhurst): David Dewhurst 50, Ted Cruz 42
VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 44
WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 45, Tammy Baldwin (D) 41; Baldwin 43, Mark Neumann (R) 40; Baldwin 44, Eric Hovde (R) 38; Baldwin 43, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37
WI-SEN—R (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson 35, Eric Hovde 23, Mark Neumann 10, Jeff Fitzgerald 6
There is just a crapload of presidential polling today, and it would take until this time tomorrow to describe all of it in extensive detail. What is notable, and interesting, is the fact that there are both Democratic and Republican pollsters exploring the presidential race today, and both of them show pretty decent numbers for the president.
Case in point: The one common thread between the GOP-leaning pollster (We Ask America) and the Democratic pollster (the G-H-Y and Global consortium polling for Priorities USA)—Pennsylvania. There was actually very little difference between their numbers here. The Democratic pollsters were a little bit more bullish on Obama, but not dramatically so. President Obama led Mitt Romney in the Keystone State by 7 points in the GOP poll, and 9 points in the Democratic one.
W.A.A. also gave the president a double-digit lead in New Mexico. Meanwhile, the Priorities poll had numbers that were similar to recent independent polling. Their numbers in Florida and Ohio, for example, mirrored recent Quinnipiac polling.
So, even though you always have to consider the source when looking at polling, it seems like both the GOPers here and the Democratic pollsters here are at least in the realm of reality. Neither poll seemed unduly optimistic for their preferred horses in the race.
In other polling news ...
- One poll that I did not include in the summary above, for two reasons, was the new PPP polling data out of the commonwealth of Virginia which explored the gubernatorial race there. Reason #1—that election won't take place until 2013 and there was (way more than) enough 2012 polling today. Reason #2—PPP went deep into it, and polled three Democratic options and three Republican options. Courtesy of our own Live Digest, here is how those races broke down:
Terry McAuliffe (D) 33, Bill Bolling (R) 36On balance, decent numbers for the Democrats. McAuliffe is considered the most likely of the Democrats to make the plunge, and Ken Cuccinelli looks likely to handle business on the GOP side of the ledger. And, in that pairing, the Democrats have a slight edge.
Terry McAuliffe (D) 41, Ken Cuccinelli (R) 37
Terry McAuliffe (D) 38, Tareq Salahi (R) 24
Tom Perriello (D) 32, Bill Bolling (R) 38
Tom Perriello (D) 38, Ken Cuccinelli (R) 39
Tom Perriello (D) 40, Tareq Salahi (R) 23
Mark Warner (D) 49, Bill Bolling (R) 35
Mark Warner (D) 51, Ken Cuccinelli (R) 37
Mark Warner (D) 54, Tareq Salahi (R) 24
- Lots of Senate polling out today, but the most curious one has to come from New Mexico. Right-leaning pollsters We Ask America gave Democrat Martin Heinrich a nice edge over Republican Heather Wilson, while the Democratic firm FM3 (Franklin Maslin Maullin Metz) actually had Heinrich's lead at less than half of the advantage seen by W.A.A. That is, to say the least, odd.
- One interesting nugget in that raft of Maine polling today is the wide lead for marriage equality in a state that narrowly rescinded that right in a 2009 public referendum. Back then, the margin was 53-47 in favor of revoking marriage rights for same-sex couples. Today, according to the Critical Insights poll, the margin is 22 points in favor of marriage equality. If true, that would mean that marriage rights might win on the ballot in a quartet of states this fall. Of course, a notable caveat: In recent history, marriage equality has always polled better over the phone than it has at the ballot box (which was the case, as it happened, in Maine in 2009). That said, any sexuality-based variation on the "Bradley Effect" is pretty damned unlikely to be worth 22 freaking percentage points.