The last couple of weeks candidate Romney's campaign is in serious political trouble because of the long smoldering issue of his Bain legacy. As many pointed out his political credibility where his personal financial foundation lynch-pins much of his standing is now is deep question. Political legitimacy is a fluid and often nebulous, intangible basis where all personal backgrounds is fair game regardless of a candidate's or supporting constituency's idea to the contrary.
Releasing personal income tax records is part and parcel to establishing credibility that a candidate measures to the majority of the electorate that his financial dealings were at least minimally palpable to lead a government with some basis of honor and integrity. Tax returns are often demanded when borrowing money, esp small business loans, home mortgages, even car loans. My children receive scholarships for their undergraduate studies where each year both us and they have to submit tax returns to the public university's financial aide office. So for Romney coming up with every conceivable excuse and accusation that somehow his tax returns will be used against him so he is not going to do so is simply lame as a
TEENAGER CHILD WITH SMELL OF MARIJUANA ON HIS/HER SELF AND STEADFASTLY STANDING IN FRONT OF THEIR BEDROOM DOOR RESTRICTING ACCESS TO THEIR BEDROOM TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY POSSESS POT? MAYBE THERE MIGHT NOT BE ANY MORE GRASS LEFT BUT THERE IS SURE A PIPE AND PAPERS!
So let us look at the logic progression and why I think his very nomination is in jeopardy and why behind the scenes Republican Party leadership is doing a whole lot of contingency planning to save a semblance of a national ticket.
First the calls by national leaders like George Will, William Krystol and David Gergen among others calling for him to relent and release his tax returns. Let us understand that their public call is both an issue for them to establish whether Romney has basic national political legitimacy and credibility as it is sound political advice and counsel.
If I were a top Republican Party leader or contributor I would be demanding a conversation with A.B Culvahouse Jr. who was in charge of vetting VP candidates for John McCain. Confidentiality is everything but how you pose the question is another, "Hey, A.B., if Romney's taxes were released on a scale of 1-10, how big a problem would 'we' have?"
This said if it is true that Romney will remain stubborn and refuse to release any of previous tax records owing to the calculus that they narrative and distraction is lessor than the revelations I think it will only fuel the fire, not from the opposition (who will be using bellows to stoke the speculation) but from his weak base support.
Problem two is the national press smells blood in the water and Romney will not be able to 'jump the shark' so to speak. The blood are the cuts of a thousand needles or in this metaphor, the cuts of a thousand corral's slicing his feet as he attempts to wade through the surf of a Presidential campaign but is on the verge of drowning. David Corn appears to be leading the pack but there are others and pie
piecemeal reconstructing his financials through public filings is worse as twice we now have been pointed to direct investments related to firms engaged in promoting and executing off-shore laboring. My guess as in how history has shown is that the press will get their hands on his tax records through some kind of leak.
So as Michael Steele the former RNC Chair now a cable TV personality analyst has stated this morning that the Obama Campaign has placed Romney in a tight political box. So what is the box? A political box is whether you do this or that or hold pat you are done---check mate.
Corn just said what is being revealed is that the calculation by Romney is that the death by a thousand slices (in a shark infested waters) is better than having your chest opened without surgeons at hand. That these revelations are merely the first wave of revelations. So over the next two to three weeks if these revelations keep coming where Romneyland of dishonorable and indigenous private capital (which is a dirty business at best---I have first hand knowledge) will keep on coming. Here is one, how can Romney take an IRA account that was $1/2million to what is now worth over $100million when annual limits to contributing is $5000.
There then is the crux, without Romney releasing his tax records, whatever is being hidden; either not paying a dime in federal income taxes for a number of tax years or making millions in off shore accounts and partnerships where those partnerships, are they foreign governments like China or Saudi Arabia or even the Bin Laden's or Qaddafi or even the Russians, the crux is that the revelation is revealed by the sharks anyway---double box out.
Like what happened to Obama's original opponent Jack Ryan who had withdraw after being nominated or in Colorado in 2010 when gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis was outed for blatant plagiarism on a government funded water study, in both cases the Republican Party was put in a tailspin.
Therefore this is why I think contingency plans are being formulated for a brokered convention when Romney is forced to withdraw his name for nomination after a whirlwind of press. Sure I predict that even though the Republican Right wing will scream and holler over how the press got the returns and revelations no one will really care. There will even be a box where Romney will first say the released tax records are a fraud but will not submit his to verify them...more lameness...
In the meantime his candidacy is over and so will be the Republican national ticket in 2012. This is not dreaming for this will not do the country very good. The Republicans will hunker down in even greater opposition and hatred but the Democrats will hold the government and try to govern.