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Here is my analysis of the Assembly races. I will start with listing by rating.

GUARANTEED DEM - 15
SAFE DEM - 32
LEAN DEM - 2
TOSS-UP - 3
LEAN GOP - 1
LIKELY GOP - 2
SAFE GOP - 19
GUARANTEED GOP - 6

The Democrats' best-case scenario, winning all the seats that lean their way and the toss-ups, is status-quo 52-28, while the Republicans' best-case scenario is 49-31.

Now, on to the races.

California's 1st State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Northeastern corner (Redding)
November ballot: Rick Bosetti (R) vs. Brian Dahle (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37
President 2008: McCain 53-41

California's 2nd State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: North Coast (Santa Rosa)
November ballot: Wesley Chesbro (D-inc) vs. Tom Lynch (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32
Governor 2010: Brown 59-33
President 2008: Obama 67-29

California's 3rd State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Northern Sacramento Valley (Chico, Paradise, Oroville)
November ballot: Dan Logue (R-inc) vs. Charles Rouse (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39
President 2008: McCain 53-44

California's 4th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Western Sacramento Valley (Davis, Napa)
November ballot: Mariko Yamada (D-inc) vs. John Munn (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37
Governor 2010: Brown 57-36
President 2008: Obama 65-32

California's 5th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Northeastern San Joaquin Valley, Sierras
November ballot: Frank Bigelow (R) vs. Rico Oller (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39
President 2008: McCain 53-44

California's 6th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Roseville, Folsom
November ballot: Beth Gaines (R-inc) vs. Regy Bronner (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 57-37
President 2008: McCain 55-42

California's 7th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento
November ballot: Roger Dickinson (D-inc) vs. Jonathan Zachariou (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 58-33
Governor 2010: Brown 65-29
President 2008: Obama 67-30

California's 8th State Assembly District - TOSS-UP
Geography: Citrus Heights, Rancho Cordova
November ballot: Ken Cooley (D) vs. Peter Tateishi (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-43
Governor 2010: Brown 50-43
President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: This is probably the dictionary definition of "swing district".

California's 9th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Lodi, Elk Grove, part of Sacramento
November ballot: Richard Pan (D-inc) vs. Tony Amador (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41
Governor 2010: Brown 58-36
President 2008: Obama 59-38

California's 10th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Marin County, southern Sonoma County
November ballot: Michael Allen (D-inc) vs. Marc Levine (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27
Governor 2010: Brown 68-27
President 2008: Obama 76-21

California's 11th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville
November ballot: Jim Frazier (D) vs. Mike Hudson (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41
Governor 2010: Brown 55-39
President 2008: Obama 60-37

California's 12th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Eastern San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties
November ballot: Kristin Olsen (R-inc) vs. Christopher Mateo (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-34
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39
President 2008: McCain 52-45

California's 13th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Stockton, Tracy
November ballot: Susan Talamantes Eggman (D) vs. K. "Jeffrey" Jafri (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40
Governor 2010: Brown 55-38
President 2008: Obama 61-36

California's 14th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Concord, Martinez, Vallejo
November ballot: Susan Bonilla (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
Governor 2010: Brown 62-32
President 2008: Obama 69-29

California's 15th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Berkeley, Richmond
November ballot: Nancy Skinner (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 84-12
Governor 2010: Brown 84-12
President 2008: Obama 87-10

California's 16th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Livermore, San Ramon, Walnut Creek
November ballot: Joan Buchanan (D-inc) vs. Al Phillips (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 50-45
Governor 2010: Brown 51-45
President 2008: Obama 60-37

California's 17th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Eastern San Francisco
November ballot: Tom Ammiano (D-inc) vs. Jason P. Clark (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11
Governor 2010: Brown 82-13
President 2008: Obama 87-10

California's 18th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Oakland
November ballot: Rob Bonta (D) vs. Abel Guillen (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 81-13
Governor 2010: Brown 82-13
President 2008: Obama 85-12

California's 19th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Western San Francisco, Daly City
November ballot: Michael Breyer (D) vs. Phil Ting (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 70-21
Governor 2010: Brown 72-23
President 2008: Obama 78-19

California's 20th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Fremont, Hayward
November ballot: Bill Quirk (D) vs. Jennifer Ong (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 67-26
Governor 2010: Brown 67-27
President 2008: Obama 73-24

California's 21st State Assembly District - LEAN DEM
Geography: Merced County, western Stanislaus County (Ceres, Modesto, Patterson)
November ballot: Adam Gray (D) vs. Jack Mobley (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 47-45
President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: The statewide numbers show that this is a swingy district, and while the Republican got almost 45%, the remaining 55% was split among 4 Democrats.

California's 22nd State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Mateo County (San Mateo, Redwood City)
November ballot: Mark Gilham (R) vs. Kevin Mullin (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 64-30
Governor 2010: Brown 64-31
President 2008: Obama 72-25

California's 23rd State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Fresno, Clovis
November ballot: Jim Patterson (R) vs. Bob Whalen (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-36
President 2008: McCain 53-45

California's 24th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale)
November ballot: Richard Gordon (D-inc) vs. Chengzhi "George" Yang (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-28
Governor 2010: Brown 64-31
President 2008: Obama 73-23

California's 25th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Newark, Milpitas, Santa Clara
November ballot: Bob Wieckowski (D-inc) vs. Arlyne Diamond (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29
Governor 2010: Brown 61-33
President 2008: Obama 68-28

California's 26th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Inyo County, Visalia, rural Kern County
November ballot: Connie Conway (R-inc) vs. Jonathan Louis Sosa (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: McCain 57-41

California's 27th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Jose
November ballot: Nora Campos (D-inc) vs. Roger F. Lasson (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26
Governor 2010: Brown 64-29
President 2008: Obama 70-26

California's 28th State Assembly District - LEAN DEM (but no chance of going GOP at all)
Geography: Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga
November ballot: Paul Fong (D-inc) vs. Chad Walsh (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 58-34
Governor 2010: Brown 57-38
President 2008: Obama 67-30

Quite unusual, though this is not the first time a "minor party" (in this case, none at all) candidate has a fighting chance against a major-party incumbent. Fong only got 54% in June, so this may be the only race in which top-two potentially worked to a non-major party candidate's benefit.

California's 29th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Santa Cruz, Monterey
November ballot: Mark Stone (D) vs. Tom Walsh (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31
Governor 2010: Brown 62-32
President 2008: Obama 71-26

California's 30th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Benito, Salinas, Morgan Hill
November ballot: Luis Alejo (D-inc) vs. Rob Bernosky (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
Governor 2010: Brown 58-35
President 2008: Obama 66-31

California's 31st State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Western Fresno County
November ballot: Henry Perea (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44
Governor 2010: Brown 53-39
President 2008: Obama 59-38

California's 32nd State Assembly District - LIKELY GOP
Geography: Kings County, Bakersfield, Delano
November ballot: Rudy Salas (D) vs. Pedro Rios (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-41
Governor 2010: Whitman 49-41
President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: I don't see how Salas can overcome a 60-40 deficit, even if Democratic turnout was reduced in June.

California's 33rd State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Most of San Bernardino County (Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow)
November ballot: Tim Donnelly (R-inc) vs. John Coffey (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-35
President 2008: McCain 55-41

California's 34th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Bakersfield
November ballot: Shannon Grove (R-inc) vs. Mari Goodman (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 66-25
Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31
President 2008: McCain 63-34

California's 35th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria
November ballot: Katcho Achadjian (R-inc) vs. Gerry Manata
Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-40
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42
President 2008: McCain 49-48

California's 36th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Steve Fox (D) vs. Ron Smith (R)
November ballot: Lancaster, Palmdale
Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 48-40
President 2008: McCain 49-48

California's 37th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard
November ballot: Das Williams (D-inc) vs. Rob Walter (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40
Governor 2010: Brown 52-41
President 2008: Obama 64-33

California's 38th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Santa Clarita, Simi Valley
November ballot: Edward Headington (D) vs. Scott Wilk (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 54-39
President 2008: McCain 51-46

California's 39th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Richard Alarcon (D-inc) vs. Raul Bocanegra (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-27
Governor 2010: Brown 64-27
President 2008: Obama 71-25

California's 40th State Assembly District - LEAN GOP
Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
November ballot: Mike Morrell (R-inc) vs. Russ Warner (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-42
Governor 2010: Brown 46-45
President 2008: Obama 52-44

Description: This district looks like Morrell's old district, except it trades a Republican city for a Democratic one: Upland for San Bernardino. This district is also 47% minority-majority in the citizen voting age population, so June turnout was probably lower than what November's might be.

California's 41st State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Gabriel Valley (Pasadena, Upland)
November ballot: Chris Holden (D) vs. Donna Lowe (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-42
Governor 2010: Brown 53-40
President 2008: Obama 60-37

California's 42nd State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Hemet, Palm Desert, Yucca Valley
November ballot: Brian Nestande (R-inc) vs. Anthony Orozco (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39
President 2008: McCain 52-45

California's 43rd State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Burbank, Glendale
November ballot: Mike Gatto (D-inc) vs. Greg Krikorian (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 59-33
Governor 2010: Brown 59-33
President 2008: Obama 67-29

California's 44th State Assembly District - LIKELY GOP
Geography: Oxnard, Thousand Oaks
November ballot: Jeff Gorell (R-inc) vs. Eileen MacEnery (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-44
Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44
President 2008: Obama 55-43

Description: The addition of Oxnard shifted this district from a small Republican registration advantage to a slight Democratic registration. Gorell is moderate and has received the teachers' union endorsement, so he shouldn't have much trouble holding this district.

California's 45th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Bob Blumenfield (D-inc) vs. Chris Kolski (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-38
Governor 2010: Brown 55-39
President 2008: Obama 64-33

California's 46th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Adrin Nazarian (D) vs. Jay Stern (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26
Governor 2010: Brown 67-27
President 2008: Obama 73-23

California's 47th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino
November ballot: Joe Baca, Jr. (D) vs. Cheryl R. Brown (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30
Governor 2010: Brown 61-29
President 2008: Obama 67-29

California's 48th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Baldwin Park, West Covina, Glendora
November ballot: Roger Hernandez (D-inc) vs. Joe M. Gardner (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 53-37
Governor 2010: Brown 56-35
President 2008: Obama 61-36

California's 49th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Alhambra, El Monte, Monterey Park*
November ballot: Ed Chau (D) vs. Matthew Lin (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37
Governor 2010: Brown 55-37
President 2008: Obama 60-36

*This is the only majority-Asian district in all of the California U.S. House, Senate, and Assembly districts in population and voting-age population (VAP), and almost majority-Asian citizen VAP. Have there been any other majority-Asian districts outside of Hawaii?

California's 50th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: West Side L.A. (Beverly Hills, Malibu, Santa Monica, West Hollywood)
November ballot: Betsy Butler (D-inc) vs. Richard Bloom (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 67-28
Governor 2010: Brown 66-29
President 2008: Obama 74-23

Description: Butler, who barely won in a Beach Cities-centric district in 2010, moved to this West Side-centric district and will face the mayor of Santa Monica. Her other option was the very swingy 66th district, so her chances are nominally better here.

California's 51st State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Downtown L.A.
November ballot: Jimmy Gomez (D) vs. Luis Lopez (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 77-15
Governor 2010: Brown 77-15
President 2008: Obama 79-17

California's 52nd State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Chino, Ontario, Pomona
November ballot: Norma Torres (D-inc) vs. Kenny Coble (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-37
Governor 2010: Brown 56-35
President 2008: Obama 63-34

California's 53rd State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Downtown L.A., Huntington Park
November ballot: John PĂ©rez (D-inc) vs. Jose Aguilar (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14
Governor 2010: Brown 77-15
President 2008: Obama 78-18

California's 54th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Culver City
November ballot: Holly Mitchell (D-inc) vs. Brandon McCowen (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 78-16
Governor 2010: Brown 78-16
President 2008: Obama 84-14

California's 55th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Diamond Bar, La Habra, Yorba Linda
November ballot: Curt Hagman (R-inc) vs. Gregg Fritchle (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-36
Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37
President 2008: McCain 50-47

California's 56th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Imperial County, Indio, Cathedral City, Blythe
November ballot: Manuel Perez (D-inc) vs. Corky Reynaga-Emett (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40
Governor 2010: Brown 54-39
President 2008: Obama 59-38

California's 57th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: La Mirada, Norwalk, Whittier
November ballot: Ian Charles Calderon (D) vs. Noel Jaimes (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37
Governor 2010: Brown 56-36
President 2008: Obama 60-36

California's 58th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Cerritos
November ballot: Christina Garcia (D) vs. Patricia Kotze-Ramos (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30
Governor 2010: Brown 62-30
President 2008: Obama 66-31

California's 59th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Part of South Central L.A.
November ballot: Rodney Robinson (D) vs. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 86-6
Governor 2010: Brown 86-6
President 2008: Obama 90-7

California's 60th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Corona, Riverside
November ballot: Eric Linder (R) vs. Jose Luis Perez (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41
Governor 2010: Whitman 48-43
President 2008: Obama 51-46

California's 61st State Assembly District - TOSS-UP
Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley
November ballot: Bill Batey (R) vs. Jose Medina (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41
Governor 2010: Brown 53-39
President 2008: Obama 60-36

Description: Here is another new Riverside district. I'm rating this a toss-up like its Senate and U.S. House counterparts due to the "uncharted territory" and "historic GOP strength" factors. However, Kamala Harris won here in the Attorney General race, so if one of the districts goes DEM, my money is on this one.

California's 62nd State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne
November ballot: Steven Bradford (D-inc) vs. Mervin Leon Evans (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 73-20
Governor 2010: Brown 73-21
President 2008: Obama 80-17

California's 63rd State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Gateway Cities (South Gate, Lakewood, Lynwood)
November ballot: Jack M. Guerrero (R) vs. Anthony Rendon (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-24
Governor 2010: Brown 67-24
President 2008: Obama 72-24

California's 64th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Compton, Carson
November ballot: Isadore Hall (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11
Governor 2010: Brown 82-11
President 2008: Obama 85-12

California's 65th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Buena Park, Fullerton, Stanton
November ballot: Chris Norby (R-inc) vs. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42
President 2008: Obama 50-47

California's 66th State Assembly District - TOSS-UP
Geography: Palos Verdes, Torrance, West Carson, Beach Cities
November ballot: Craig Huey (R) vs. Al Muratsuchi (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45
Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46
President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Huey, who overperformed in a House district special election in 2011, is running in this swingy district, with Democratic-leaning West Carson, the slight-Democratic-leaning Beach Cities (Hermosa/Manhattan/Redondo), the Republican-leaning Palos Verdes Peninsula, and swingy Torrance. Republicans got 60% of the June vote, which seems high for a swingy district, so this district could go either way.

California's 67th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Murrieta, Menifee, Lake Elsinore
November ballot: Melissa Melendez (R) vs. Phil Paule (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 57-34
President 2008: McCain 56-41

California's 68th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin
November ballot: Don Wagner (R-inc) vs. Christina Avalos (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 60-33
President 2008: McCain 52-45

California's 69th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Anaheim, Santa Ana
November ballot: Tom Daly (D) vs. Joe Moreno (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34
Governor 2010: Brown 56-34
President 2008: Obama 64-33

California's 70th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Long Beach
November ballot: Bonnie Lowenthal (D-inc) vs. Martha Flores Gibson (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-34
Governor 2010: Brown 59-34
President 2008: Obama 67-30

California's 71st State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: El Cajon, Santee
November ballot: Brian Jones (R-inc) vs. Patrick Hurley (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-32
President 2008: McCain 57-40

California's 72nd State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Westminster
November ballot: Travis Allen (R) vs. Troy Edgar (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: McCain 53-44

California's 73rd State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, San Clemente
November ballot: Diane Harkey (R-inc) vs. James Corbett (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30
Governor 2010: Whitman 62-31
President 2008: McCain 53-44

California's 74th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach
November ballot: Allan Mansoor (R-inc) vs. Robert Rush (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37
President 2008: McCain 50-47

California's 75th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Escondido, San Marcos, Temecula
November ballot: Matthew Herold (D) vs. Marie Waldron (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-30
Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31
President 2008: McCain 55-41

California's 76th State Assembly District - GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista
November ballot: Rocky Chavez (R) vs. Sherry Hodges (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-38
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-40
President 2008: Obama 51-46

California's 77th State Assembly District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Poway, northern San Diego
November ballot: Ruben Hernandez (D) vs. Brian Maienschein (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-39
President 2008: Obama 50-47

California's 78th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Western San Diego, Coronado, Imperial Beach
November ballot: Toni Atkins (D-inc) vs. Ralph Denney (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-38
Governor 2010: Brown 54-39
President 2008: Obama 66-31

California's 79th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Chula Vista, La Mesa, Lemon Grove
November ballot: Mary England (R) vs. Shirley Weber (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41
Governor 2010: Brown 51-40
President 2008: Obama 60-38

California's 80th State Assembly District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Chula Vista, National City
November ballot: Ben Hueso (D-inc) vs. Derrick Roach (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32
Governor 2010: Brown 57-32
President 2008: Obama 66-32

Originally posted to SoCalGal23 on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 08:19 PM PDT.

Also republished by California politics.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-01 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 08:19:49 PM PDT

  •  What are our priorities? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, satanicpanic

    I've heard good things about Russ Warner in the 40th, but don't know how winnable the district is.

    Since getting to 2/3 in each house is important,  do we have enough winnable races to make a difference?

    And thanks for doing this;  it's important work.

    Mitt Romney is a T-1000 sent back from the Future as a harbinger of the upcoming Robot Apocolypse.

    by mbayrob on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 08:38:08 PM PDT

    •  My sense is that 2/3 is (0+ / 0-)

      All but guaranteed in the Senate but would probably require a wave in the Assembly.  But I should look over these diaries more closely.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 08:40:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would agree (0+ / 0-)

        The Assembly seems a bit harder to win with those SoCal seats in Ventura and Palos Verdes hurting our chances.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 10:35:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  AD-40 and 44 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    Once the incumbents are term-limited out/retire, those would be prime pick-up opportunities to get us to 2/3rds.  As could the 32nd.  2/3rds will take some muscle but it's certainly very doable.

    Which AD has the mayor of Oakley running as the Democrat?  My aunt lives in Oakley.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 16, 2012 at 08:44:23 PM PDT

  •  I did a diary on the CA assembly too (0+ / 0-)

    Once I'm not on my phone it'll be interesting to compare.  I think someone said that district was the only majority-Asian one outsiders HI.

    My money's on Huey in the 66th, I think.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 08:33:24 AM PDT

  •  ratings (0+ / 0-)

    I differ from you on some of these, but not by that much in most cases:

    8: tilt D. The Dem got about 45% of the two-party vote in the primary, which puts him in decent shape for the general and Brown won by 7.

    21: likely D if not safe D. The Dems got nearly 55% in the primary suggesting that they should clear 60% in the general. I can't imagine that Gray is so bad that he would lose at least half of the other Dems' supporters in the general.

    32: tossup. Salas' share of the primary vote was only 0.4 points less than Warner's, and the district is very young and very Hispanic and should have the biggest turnout increase from June to November of any competitve district. Brown won here by 9.

    40: tilt R. Morrell did well in the primary, but this is still a (barely) Brown district.

    44: I have it lean R based on the primary (about the same as 40) but I can see your argument for likely R.

    61: lean D. Medina got 44.6% in the primary and Batey 51.0%. I don't know whether the indie who got most of the rest of it is on the left or the right, but he has a Hispanic name. Brown romped by 14 points here.

    66: lean R. Huey got nearly 60% in the primary, and I would not expect as big a turnout jump from the primary to the general as in 32 or 40.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 09:00:17 AM PDT

    •  I think that Brown over-performed in the (0+ / 0-)

      Sacramento area, for some reason.  

      Boxer lost AD-08 by about 4.5 points, when she won statewide by 10 points.  

      Since California is about D+7, that would suggest this is basically an even district, crudely speaking, as would the fact that Obama and McCain got very close to their national numbers here.

      Conversely, Brown won statewide by 13 points, so winning this district by 7 points would indicate that it's, say, D+3 or D+4 (depending on if you look at vote shares or margins).  But the above races don't suggest that.  

      It's a bit tricky to compare given California's various minor parties, though.  For example, Steve Cooley did 3.4 points better than statewide, but Kamala Harris did like 9 points worse, so it could be either D+3.6 or R+2 by vote share, depending on which you look at!  Boxer did 9 points worse than she did statewide, but Fiorna only did about 5.5 points better.

      Still, the Presidential numbers suggest an even district, and I think the statewide comparisons do as well.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:06:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  AD8 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt

        The closer Sac suburbs are loaded with state workers and as such tend to be more Dem-leaning at the state level than at the national level. I think that Brown's numbers are more significant than Boxer's for the state legislature. For Congress it would be the other way around.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:46:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's possible... (0+ / 0-)

          But even among state officers, Brown might stand out.

          Let's see, sticking with margins--Harris lost by 12 here, but she won statewide by 1.  So the margin is off 13 points from the state's, which would indicate an even seat again.  (Crudely.)

          Chiang won by 21 here, about the same as statewide.

          Lockyer won by 20 statewide, and by about 11 here.

          Um, I don't really know what to make of all that.  I wonder why Chiang did so well here?  Perhaps you're right, and the "state officer average" would place it around D+3 or D+4.  On the other hand, I'd really like to know the minor party distribution in these races here.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:58:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  And (0+ / 0-)

      AD-08 is pretty white for a district in California, so there might not be the same kind of turnout difference there.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 12:09:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  No longer on my phone... (0+ / 0-)

    Let's see...

    -We agree that AD-08 is a tossup.

    -I said that AD-09 might be competitive, since the two Democrats combining to 50.8% didn't strike me as terribly strong, but I suppose I see the argument that's a floor.

    -I was similarly skeptical about AD-32, but I see sacman's argument that this is another majority-minority district.

    -AD-40, I don't know if I think it's Lean GOP.  This is almost a majority-minority district, and so it might have a big turnout difference in the fall.  Maybe Tilt GOP?

    -AD-44, Gorrell indeed seems well-regarded.

    -AD-61, I was actually considering putting it in "safe Democratic".  This is another majority-minority district, I think, and Medina got 44.6%.

    -AD-66, as I said, I'm pretty bullish on Huey's chances.  

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 11:57:47 AM PDT

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