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8:25 AM PT: South Carolina SD-41: Tuesday night's special election in this decidedly Republican district turned out to be incredibly tight: Republican Walter Hundley finished with a 14-vote lead over Democrat Paul Tinkler (3,112 to 3,098), while Green Party candidate Sue Edward pulled in 53 votes. Because of the ultra-tight margin, a recount will be conducted on Friday. (H/t: Johnny Longtorso.)

8:33 AM PT: NV-Sen: This piece from The Hill's Cameron Joseph is just amazing. Sen. Dean Heller is literally refusing to take responsibility for attack ads he's running against Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley, acting as though he isn't responsible for his "campaign" and that it's just some random super PAC he has no control over:

When The Hill pointed out he was running attack ads that say Berkley "pushed legislation and twisted arms of federal regulators, advocating policies for financial gain, saving her husband's industry millions," Heller interjected.

"The campaign is. If you have any questions or comments it'd probably be better if you directed those towards the campaign," he said. "Just talk to the campaign, they're the ones dealing specifically with this issue. Right now, I'm just worried about jobs and the economy."

What's more, DCCyclone totally nailed it:
Sen. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) campaign has been running hard-hitting ads against his opponent, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.)—but he refused to echo their criticisms on Tuesday, instead referring all questions about the issue to his campaign. [...]

"I haven't made any comments on it. It's one of those things that I let the Ethics Committee do its job and I'll do my job," the freshman senator said when asked about the investigation.

As DC suggested, Heller's own involvement in protecting Nevada's only kidney transplant center—which is at the center of this mostly manufactured controversy—makes it very hard for him to directly take on Berkley, who led the (successful) fight to keep the program alive. Indeed:
He wouldn't say what he thought of the investigation, but stood by his support of the program.

"Of course — I signed the letter," Heller said.

With Heller forced to take this approach, Republicans are going to have a difficult time getting a lot of traction with this line of attack.

8:47 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac has another New Jersey survey out, finding Dem Sen. Bob Menendez with his best showing against GOP state Sen. Joe Kyrillos since their very first poll of the contest early this year. Menendez is up 47-34, versus 45-35 in May. (That inaugural February poll had Menendez leading 49-34.) Menendez's favorables are still soft (37-25), but Kyrillos remains completely unknown.

8:53 AM PT: TX-Sen: Is this meant to un-do the Craig James endorsement? Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, the third-place finisher (by a big margin) in May's GOP primary, has now given his backing to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the runoff. Remarkably, Dewhurst's press release still touts the James endorsement at the end! As Burnt Orange Report's David Feigen said, "The only question is how many votes the James endorsement costs Dewhurst...."

9:01 AM PT: VA-Gov: Quinnipiac also has a Virginia poll out, but it's mostly focused on the recent UVA saga and there aren't any head-to-heads. They do have some approval numbers on the two 2013 GOP gubernatorial candidates who also happen to be current office-holders, though: LG Bill Bolling and AG Ken Cuccinelli.

9:11 AM PT: NJ-Gov: As with their new Virginia poll, Quinnipiac doesn't test any matchups against GOP Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey, but there are some interesting details contained in the survey. Quinnipiac asked respondents: "What one word best describes your impression" of the governor; the winner, by a longshot, was "bully," with 185 mentions. "Arrogant" was second with 75, and "tough" third with 50. (Props to the seven people who weren't afraid to tell a live interviewer that "asshole" was the first word that popped into their minds.) On a more objective level, Quinnipiac's been asking "Would you describe Governor Christie as being more of a bully, or more of a leader?" for a while. Christie rates leader over bully 50-45, but that's a lot worse than his 54-39 mark in April, and the lowest since June of 2010.

9:13 AM PT: OH-Sen: Okay, this is quite funny.

9:24 AM PT: MI-14: Dem Rep. Gary Peters is out with another ad, touting his work to save auto industry jobs and once again mentioning his relationship with President Obama (along with another picture of the two of them together). Obama, of course, has not endorsed in this member-vs.-member race (Rep. Hansen Clarke is also running here), but Peters obviously is smart to link himself to the president given that the 14th is both heavily blue and majority black.

9:37 AM PT: MO-Gov: Gov. Jay Nixon (D): $2.1 mil raised, $7.6 mil cash-on-hand; Dave Spence (R): $500K raised (plus $500K self-loan), $1.2 mil cash-on-hand. The DGA also donated $500K to Nixon on July 1, after the end of the fundraising quarter.

9:50 AM PT: OH-Sen: The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police is the state's largest law enforcement union, with some 25,000 active and retired members. It also hasn't backed a Democrat for Senate since 1988. But thanks to the GOP assault on worker's rights, embodied by last year's successful fight to overturn the anti-collective bargaining law known as SB5, the OH FOP is endorsing Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown for re-election. The group's president praised Brown as "one of our strongest allies" in the battle against SB5.

10:13 AM PT: IN-Sen: Republican Richard Mourdock, whose premature response(s) to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Affordable Care Act made him the butt of a lot of jokes, has decided he wants to sink his teeth into a few good Obamacare lies nonetheless. By way of attacking Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly (who voted for the bill), Mourdock claims, among other things, that the law "cuts Medicare services to seniors by $500 billion." Usually, though, Republicans try to elide things a little more, just claiming that the ACA "cuts $500 billion from Medicare." Mourdock's construction—that it cuts "Medicare services to seniors"—is even more of a lie. The $500 billion in savings (not cuts), as the WaPo has explained, "are wrung from health-care providers, not Medicare beneficiaries."

11:12 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-01: Most candidates would be psyched to get a six-figure IE on their behalf, but it's turned into a bit of a PR disaster for Laura Ruderman, one of the many Dems jostling for this open seat. The problem is: the source of much of the funding for the Progress for Washington PAC is... Ruderman's mom, leaving Ruderman the punchline for easy jokes about helicopter parents. At any rate, Progress for Washington's total spending is up to $111K now, including another $21K for mailers and $76K in media buys for a new TV ad.

That leaves Ruderman in the awkward position of having to publicly deplore her mom's ad (which, if she's playing by the IE rules, she had to have had no previous knowledge of) and call for the ad (which morphs Suzan Del Bene's face into Mitt Romney, because, y'know, they both have money) to be taken down. Don't confuse that ad with the first ad that just came out from Ruderman's campaign, though; that ad features a prominent appearance by, of all people, Ruderman's mom, talking about her battle with cancer.

There's a new poll from the Steve Hobbs campaign, too, which is noteworthy because it shows Hobbs (who, despite being the only current state legislator in the Dem cast of characters, has the least money in the field and has been mostly an afterthought until recently) getting some traction. Hobbs was recently endorsed by the Seattle Times, though, which seemed to raise his profile, enough that he's right in the thick of things now. John Koster, the only Republican in the race, is a lock to advance from the Top 2, at 30, but there's now a three-way pileup of Dems fighting for the second slot, with Darcy Burner at 13, Hobbs at 12, and DelBene at 11, with Ruderman lagging at 5.

This poll also points to a game-theory explanation as to why Ruderman is trying to take down DelBene, rather than Burner, who's been the ostensible Dem frontrunner so far. The center-left space that DelBene and Ruderman share is a bit larger than the left segment (which Burner has locked down) or the center segment (which belongs to Hobbs), but DelBene or Ruderman need to consolidate most of that segment (at the other's expense) in order to have enough votes to advance past Burner and Hobbs.


11:39 AM PT: MO-01: I'm by no means a Facebook aficionado, but this story is pretty funny. As Leah Greenbaum of the Riverrfont Times puts it, Rep. Lacy Clay is in the midst of "a gloriously shit-slinging social media campaign" designed to highlight differences between himself and fellow Rep. Russ Carnahan, his opponent in the Democratic primary. What's so amusing is that Clay used Facebook's tagging feature to link to Carnahan in every post they put up attacking him. That meant that all of Clay's negative hits were appearing on Carnahan's own page! When Carnahan finally realized what was going on, he made an even dopier move: he removed his page from Facebook altogether, even though he could have just blocked Clay from tagging him (or removed the tags). You might say, "ah, the perils of social media!" but really, this is just "the perils of not having a 14-year-old kid to help out your campaign online."

11:45 AM PT (David Jarman): Pennsylvania: Here's a followup to part of yesterday's digest, where we looked at county-by-county registration changes in Pennsylvania over the years 1998-2012: the Dem gains look a little less impressive when you take only the years 2008 to 2012 in consideration. The Dems' 1.2 million person registration edge from 2008 is a little narrower now, closer by 168,000... maybe not that surprising, since 2008 was something of a high-water mark in many ways.

11:53 AM PT: FL-18: GOP freshman Allen West has released his second ad, a paean to "good education" in which he also deploys a few phrases that burgeoning conservatives start to fall in love with around the 10th grade. West says that in his upbringing in inner-city Atlanta, he had the choice between "economic freedom" and "economic dependency" (code for welfare, of course). He adds that "every child should have the equality of opportunity I did"—the opposite of which is "equality of result," which is code for "doing anything to help the less fortunate."

12:08 PM PT: FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is trying to show that months of terrible headlines, both local and national, about his serious ethics issues haven't dented his image. He's released a new survey, from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him up 54-32 over Democrat Keith Fitzgerald. The poll also says Buchanan sports a 53-33 favorability rating. A March internal for Buchanan had similar toplines, 58-36, but a Fitgerald poll from February pegged the race a much tighter 49-38. This time, though, Fitzgerald's campaign says they don't have their poll with which to respond, and if you check their new FEC report, you'll see they haven't spent money on a poll since early April. Considering that neither candidate has gone on the air yet, that's probably a smart decision—a new poll would probably just show the same thing (much as Buchanan's did, whether it's right or wrong.)

12:36 PM PT: MI-11: Republican Nancy Cassis is out with a pair of ads (her first) ahead of the August Republican primary for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's now-vacant seat. The first spot is a strangely amusing (you might even say catchy) jingle reminding people to vote for her as a write-in candidate. ("Nothing fancy—write in Nancy!"). The second attacks Kerry Bentivolio, the only guy whose name will actually appear on the ballot, for supposedly supporting amnesty for illegal aliens, and for allegedly "causing his business to go bankrupt" by "racking up debt."

1:48 PM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has a helpful piece today on the controversy of whether pollsters should, at this point, be using a likely voter model and a registered voter model. (Razz a conservative about Rasmussen's out-of-whack polling and he'll probably respond that Rasmussen is the only pollster using a likely voter model now, meaning that the other pollsters are just camouflaging Barack Obama's certain doom which won't become more apparent until all the other pollsters switch to LVs too.) The reality is, though, that most pollsters don't use likely voter models until the last couple months before an election because doing beforehand is unacceptable guesswork since, as one of the pollsters Blumenthal interviewed puts it, "people are notoriously poor predictors of their own likelihood of voting on Election Day." (Blumenthal also gets a well-known GOP internal pollster to go on the record saying that RVs are the better bet.)

1:57 PM PT: AZ-09: Fresh off an endorsement from Bill Clinton (whom he worked for as a White House aide in the 1990s), Democrat Andrei Cherny is out with his first ad which touts his relationship with the Big Dog. The spot is also narrated by former state AG Terry Goddard, who you may remember from his unsuccessful 2010 run for governor.

2:06 PM PT: MO-Sen: Interesting: The Dem-aligned Majority PAC is out with a new ad attacking businessman John Brunner over new relevations that he saddled his family company with mountains of debt and nearly drove it out of business. It's an obvious line of attack, but I'm wondering why Majority PAC is hitting Brunner now, since he's in the midst of a primary. Would Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill prefer to face ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman or Rep. Todd Akin in the general instead? I could believe it. Despite Brunner's flaws, he can spend a lot of his own money, and he's also never held office before.

2:09 PM PT: TX-Sen: The Club for Growth just poured another $450K into their buy backing this ad that attacks Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. That takes them to about $2 million spent on behalf of Ted Cruz in the GOP Senate runoff, a good bit more than the $1.5 mil they originally promised.

2:10 PM PT: WI-Sen: EMILY's List is spending another $25K on online ads in the Wisconsin GOP primary, and once again, they're attacking every single Republican candidate. Oy.

2:22 PM PT: TX-33: While I think most observers expect state Rep. Marc Veasey to handily win the Democratic runoff in Texas's new 33rd Congressional district, it never hurts to get a little outside help. The Realtors (a somewhat unpredictable third-party group in that their spending tends to be parochial rather than partisan) are throwing down $150K on ads supporting Veasey—who himself is a realtor. I haven't seen a copy of the ad, and I don't know if they're in the habit of posting their television spots online, but perhaps they might do so here. The Realtors have also shelled out $23K to Hart Research for a poll of the race, though I'd be surprised if it ever saw the light of day.

2:26 PM PT: NM-Sen: Defenders of Wildlife, which has been part of a super-team of environmental groups that have lit in to Republican Heather Wilson on the airwaves, is also spending some $19K on new attack mailers. The flyers don't appear to be on their website, though.

2:28 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: Yet more financial reports from the two main candidates in Washington's gubernatorial race: GOPer Rob McKenna is pulling away a smidge, raising $1 million in the June 1-July 16 period compared with $826K for Dem Jay Inslee. (Inslee's number includes another $179K contribution from the state party, who've regularly moved large increments over to him to help him keep pace with McKenna.) Inslee has $2.7 mil on hand compared with $3.8 mil for McKenna, though Inslee just ran a probably-expensive one-minute introductory ad. Also on the WA-Gov front, that hapless McKenna staffer caught on Monday with racist tweets on her Twitter account is gone, though she claims to have resigned rather than being thrown overboard.

2:32 PM PT: CT-04: What at one point had been a fairly busy field of GOP hopefuls looking to take on third-term Dem Rep. Jim Himes is now down to just one, consulting firm executive Steve Obsitnik. Obsitnik turned in a dominant performance at the state party convention back in May, which led all of the other contenders to drop out rather than challenge him in a primary. Call it a devastating success, though: A good chunk of Obsitnik's fundraising in the second quarter (at least $43K) was money that he could only spend if he in fact had an actual primary contest on his hands. Instead, he has to refund it. That means he raised less than $200K in the third quarter, rather than the $236K he reported, a figured that the Himes campaign called "padded." For his part, Himes pulled in $553K.

2:38 PM PT: HI-Sen, MT-Sen: Believe `em if you want: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is claiming to have poll results which show Republicans Linda Lingle and Denny Rehberg ahead 6-7 points in their respective races. But there are absolutely no details offered about the surveys: no field dates, no pollster names, no sample sizes, nothing. Reporters should demand that information before publishing self-serving numbers like these.

2:46 PM PT: Bleh, that writeup also claims that George Allen is +5, without even releasing toplines!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Romney taking the gloves off? (15+ / 0-)

    That seems to be the indication given from Sununu's appearance yesterday. McKay Coppins has more about this strategy.

    Here's what they look like they will focus on:
    1. Fast and Furious
    2. Obama's cocaine use
    3. Obama trying to get Valerie Jarrett his Senate seat
    4. Tony Rezko
    5. Obama's lack of transparency
    6. Political cronyism

    Not sure how effective any of this will be. It's pretty laughable to criticize Obama on transparency when Romney hasnt released his list of bundlers or tax returns. Obama already admitted his drug use in 2008, and it wasnt a big deal. Making this an issue has the potential to backfire, imo. Blago was tried, twice, and I dont think much came up that involved Obama. Those investigations seem to be over as well.

    Similarly, Rezko's trial happened in 2008, and Obama wasnt really mentioned. In fact, Obama met with the conservative Chicago Tribune and sat with them for as long as they wanted, and let them ask any questions about Rezko. After his interview, they said his answers checked out, and they ended up endorsing him in Nov, the first Dem they have endorsed for president in decades. Romney, imo, should do something similar to clear up his issues with his taxes and record at Bain.

  •  I posted this on the House Fundraising diary (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ArkDem14, Answer Guy, atdnext, bumiputera

    But just in case you didn't see it there, here's the National Review's first House Race Rankings.

    http://nationaljournal.com/...

    Not a whole lot of surprises. I guess one - Charlie Bass is above Frank Guinta in terms of vulnerability, although the polls are showing the opposite right now (although both are obviously vulnerable). Also, I think Dave Cicillene is ranked awfully high - the massive Dem lean of the seat will make it hard for him to lose, even with his problems.

    Other than that, it looked pretty good to me.

    •  Guinta is way too low. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      Nothing else jumped out that much. A big correction is coming in a state becoming infamous for wild swings.

      Bass shoulld probably be higher on the list than Guinta just b/c NH-02 is somewhat bluer but not 20+ spots higher.

      Perhaps this is over optimism but the lack of enthusiasm for Romney in the trenches I'm hearing about might help in some types of marginal districts.  

      Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

      by Answer Guy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:20:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  low (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Answer Guy

        I think Lungren (who they have at 15) has a better chance to win than either Strickland (26) or Bilbray (27) do.

        The GOP (Lungren only) got 56.3% of the two-party vote in the CA7 primary, with 6% of the total vote split between a libertarian and an independent.

        The GOP (Strickland only) got 54.0% of the two-party vote in the CA26 primary, which would normally give Dems a slight edge in the general but in this case Parks (an indie who is fairly liberal on the issues) got 18% of the total vote, and I would guess that Brownley will pick up more of her support than Strickland will.

        In CA52 the GOP got just 51.4% of the two-party vote with two independents getting 5% of the total vote. This is a lower % than they got in CA24 where Capps is considered to be in little trouble. I think Peters is the favorite as long as he can pick up Saldana's supporters, which should not be too much trouble as she is well to his left and there is no left-wing protest candidate on the Nov ballot.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 04:49:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What's interesting is that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, bumiputera

      Kennedy significantly under-performed in 2000 and 2004 as well.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:21:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  New England Swing Voters (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, Christopher Walker

        There are a ton of them. They don't get noticed in the four solid blue states (MA, RI, CT, VT) much because the GOP base in those states is small. The Dem base in those states is much bigger but nowhere near as big as outsiders often presume it is.

        Some states are about base turnout first and careful targeting of a small number of swing voters a distant second. For Dems New England is primarily about fighting the GOP to a near draw among indies.

        Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

        by Answer Guy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:24:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Looking like a 10-15 seat Dem gain (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, lordpet8, bumiputera

      mostly just picking off the low hanging fruit from 2010.  Bigger numbers are possible, but we need a wave.

  •  Quinnipiac NJ: Menendez, Obama with double (8+ / 0-)

    digit leads.

    Menendez 47-34, Obama 49-38. Essentially the same as May, Obama doing 1 point better, Menendez +3.

    The data on healthcare were interesting to me. Narrow pluralities support the law, and the SCOTUS decision. But by a 54-38 margin, voters think NJ should expand Medicaid. If Obama wins, I could see this becoming a big issue for GOP governors, but particularly in NJ, where Christie is facing re-election next year.

    link.

  •  South Carolina SD-41 (10+ / 0-)

    The GREEN Party (Getting Republicans Elected Every November*) strikes again.  

    *And July, too.

    **To be fair, I wonder how many saw this as a potential Democratic pickup, especially as it won't determine control of the chamber.

    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 08:37:57 AM PDT

  •  Romney running on Father being born in Mexico... (7+ / 0-)

    At least in Spanish-only ads.  

    http://thehill.com/...

    This seems to be his strategy - reach out to Latino voters in Spanish language ads and present himself as a moderate but cater to anti-immigration folks otherwise in the campaign.

  •  Mark has had a lot of insight into this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, Mark27, lordpet8

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 08:57:00 AM PDT

  •  Chris Christie to give RNC keynote speech (10+ / 0-)

    according to NBC News.

    I guess that makes sense. Rubio will likely already have a prominent speaking role given the convention is in his home state, and few can really excite conservatives like Christie.

    Elizabeth Warren still seems like the front runner for the Dems.

    •  It'll be Warren at the DNC. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, dufffbeer

      Of course, with an incumbent president, the Democratic convention probably won't be as watched as the Republican one.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:17:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, lordpet8, askew

        Is that the norm?

        DNC is only three days this year.

        The strongest primetime lineup of speakers, imo, would be

        Tuesday: Bill Clinton, Michelle Obama. The First lady did very well in 2008, and Clinton goes without saying is a good speaker. When on message. :)

        Wednesday: Elizabeth Warren(keynote), Joe Biden. Biden is an okay speaker, and I imagine Warren's keynote would be fantastic.

        Thursday: The president.  

        •  Biden is more than an okay speaker (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, jj32

          When he's on, he's on.

          My rationale is that in the subset of Americans who would watch the conventions but haven't paid much attention to the election yet, they'd be more interested in being introduced to the opposition than watching the incumbent that they're pretty familiar with.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:48:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  not Warren (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, dc1000, SLDemocrat, gabjoh

        I'd give her one of the lead-in speeches as she's good at presenting and explaining the issues, but I don't think it's a good idea to make an archetypical northeastern liberal the face of the party (behind Obama of course). They'd be better off with someone swing voters would be more likely to identify with, such as Schweitzer or even Bill Clinton.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:40:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, a former Republican from Oklahoma. (8+ / 0-)

          The ultimate northeastern liberal!

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:46:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  A person not engrossed in politics (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            would not know or care about that. Whatever you think of her, she would come across as a northeastern liberal. She is good at presenting and explaining issues like sacman701 said, but frankly, she's not really charismatic and too liberal to appeal to the regular swing voters. Either that, or she might give an overlooked, but not bad speech like Warner did in 2008. Don't interpret this as me disliking Warren. I think she's the strongest Dem in Massachusetts, a solid progressive, and extremely intelligent, but this stage would not be the best use of her talents.

            She should get some sort of decent spot, but we need someone like Schweitzer who is folksy, charming, and who would appeal to both swing and Democratic voters. He was very well-received in 2008.

            •  I think Schweitzer's appeal to national (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, dufffbeer, tietack

              "swing voters" is kind of theoretical.  Moreover, who gave the best-remembered DNC keynotes?  The ones I can think of are Mario Cuomo, Barbara Jordan, Barack Obama, and Ann Richards.  Aside from Richards, arguably, that's not exactly a list designed to appeal to your stereotypical swing voter.  

              What it seems like is a list of people who are good at giving keynote speeches.  I think they should go with whoever would give the best speech, and not worry about "profile", which wouldn't really matter anyway.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:19:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's more about sending a message. (4+ / 0-)

                Maybe it was because Warner's 2008 speech was underwhelming, especially in contrast to whomever gave it in 2004 for the Republicans and for the Democrats (whatever happened to that guy?), but I don't remember it. I doubt I will remember what the person who gives it this year will say, unless he one ups Zell Miller by breaking a bottle and threatening to shank someone, and I doubt others whom are even less into this stuff than me will remember it, either. But I can see them responding to the message we push, which with Schweitzer would probably be a big tent, populist, "get shit done" message.

                I mean, I don't know that much about the guy, but everything I've seen says he can give a damn good speech. Plus, like I said above, it'll be even cooler if he brings his dog with him on stage, if that's possible.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:38:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Schweitzer's 2008 speech (5+ / 0-)

                Was a barn-burner. And he'd be a great counterpoint to the Citizens United ruling with Montana's history of millionaires buying elections. I'd support that choice.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:45:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I have actually been following Warren's race (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dufffbeer

              and she is incredibly charismatic and passionate when she speaks. She also has a faint, eloquent Oklahoma twang, and a sort of everywoman, subdued presence. She's capable of talking folksy, she has a deep awareness of middle class issues, and she is intelligent enough to phrase progressive ideas in a very pragmatic, compelling manner.

              I think there is no one better to present the issues that dominate this election and discussing them in a more compelling manner.

              Schweitzer is a governor from a rural state in the Rocky Mountain west with an odd mixture of populism and liberalism. However he doesn't really speak well to suburban voters, nor do I think he necessarily appeals to urban voters either.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:28:06 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I love Liz Warren, but her recent background (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer

            makes her a weak pick for me. I wouldn't deny her a speaking spot; in fact, I've make her a prime focus, but not the Keynote speaker.

            For that spot, I'd go with Schweitzer. He's folksy but intelligent, confident without seeming arrogant, and has an interesting mix of views. And if he can bring that dog with him on stage, so much the better!

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:30:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  given the moment we're in (0+ / 0-)

              With millions of Americans worried about keeping their house paid for, millions more worried about their retirement accounts and mad at Wall Street, I'm very, very comfortable with Elizabeth Warren as the face of the Democratic Party, this year.

              I like Schweitzer, too.

               

              A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

              by Christopher Walker on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:20:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's not that I think Warren is a bad choice. (0+ / 0-)

                I just think Schweitzer would be better. Much of it is about show and pomp and circumstance and presence and all of that other stuff that makes people remember how someone says something rather than what they say. Ideally, we'd get Warren's ideas with Schweitzer's showmanship, but if we have to choose between one, I would take the latter over the former.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:46:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  If it's not Warren (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, SLDemocrat

              O'Malley, lets set him up for 2016. And the last thing anyone will think about him is that he's an elitist.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:52:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Not true at all (8+ / 0-)

        Obama is a lot more watchable than Romney, and that matters to TV viewers.  Charlotte ratings will be higher, I bet.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:46:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also, the Dem convention (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, bythesea, lordpet8, askew

          will be in the days just after Labor Day, when probably fewer people will be out on vacation and politics will be about the last thing they'll want to watch or discuss.  

          Not that most voters, especially swingable voters, will tune in for either one.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:59:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Let's get some history here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          David Nir

          The higher convention ratings by year.  

          Republicans:

          2004    Total- ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC    15.3    16,809,000
          2000    Total- ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC    13.9  14,042,000
          1996    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS    16.5    15,756,000
          1992    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS    20.5    20,000,000
          1988    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    18.3    16,200,000
          1984    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    19.2    16,200,000
          1980    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    21.6    16,500,000
          1976    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    31.5    21,900,000
          1972    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    23.4    14,400,000
          1968    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    26.4    15,000,000
          1964    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    21.8    11,130,000
          1960    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    28           12,596,000
          Democrats:
          2004    Total- ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC    14.3    15,537,000
          2000    Total- ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC    15.3    15,380,000
          1996    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS    17.2    16,418,000
          1992    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS    22    20,500,000
          1988    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    19.8    17,400,000
          1984    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    23.4    19,500,000
          1980    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    27    20,700,000
          1976    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    25.2    17,400,000
          1972    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    18.3    11,400,000
          1968    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    28.5    16,200,000
          1964    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    28.8    14,695,000
          1960    Total– ABC, CBS, NBC    29.2     13,216,000
          (That's the rating and then the number of households.)

          Incumbent Presidents ran for re-election in 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, and 2004.  In 1972, with an incumbent President, the Republicans had the higher rating.  In 1976, with an incumbent President, the Republicans had the higher rating.  In 1980, with an incumbent President, the Democrats had the higher rating.  In 1984, with a challenger, the Democrats had the higher rating, oddly.  In 1992, with a challenger, the Democrats had the higher rating again.  In 1996, with an incumbent President, Democrats had the higher rating.  In 2004, finally, with an incumbent President, the Republicans had the higher rating.

          In all but two of these elections, the incumbent party had the higher viewership.  (I deleted some asterisks since they were messing up the boldface.)  I wonder what's up with 1984 and 1992?

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:27:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Some of it might be Vice-Presidential (0+ / 0-)

            In 1984, the Democrats had the first female V.P. nominee in history.  That might have pumped up the ratings.  

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:29:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And of course (0+ / 0-)

            The highest rating ever belongs to the 1968 Democratic National Convention.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:32:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Sample too small for valid conclusion (0+ / 0-)

            With a sample size of just 10, there pretty much has to be a unanimous pattern, or maybe just one exception, to conclude anything.

            But 8 of 10 doesn't mean much.

            The exceptions don't provide an explanation to provide consistency.  Maybe Clinton was more interesting than Bush, but no way was Mondale more interesting than Reagan in a year Reagan was popular and Mondale had the Carter albatross tied around his neck.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 04:42:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Warren, Carmona or Julian Castro (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, lordpet8, ArkDem14, askew

        would be my short list.  Which one can give the best speech and connect with folks?  GOP going with Christie means they want a rip-roaring fire in your belly speech.  One potential problem with that is it will make Romney look lame the next day and could make folks think "We could have Christie in four years if Romney loses".  

        Warren can give a good meat and potatoes speech, but there will be no energy - at least I haven't seen that from her and don't think she should try to change her style to hunt out applause lines.  

        I don't know how Carmona is as a speaker, but he he was once recruited to run as a Republican for a house race, and worked in the Bush Administration in a non-partisan role and could talk about how Republicans are 100% obstructionists while he worked in the Bush administration eventhough he was a Democrat etc.

        Julian Castro would be the rising star pick.  I think the Texas GOP will make sure to block his rise in Texas because they know he could be on a Dem ticket in the next 10 years and go along way in flipping the state.  So when he runs for Texas Governor in 2014 they'll pull out every stop.  Introduce him nationally here and it would help him fundraise and raise his profile.  If he was defeated in 2014 by the GOP machine, he could be added to the Obama Administration for the last couple years - a high profile cabinet spot that he could then use as a platform to run nationally from.  

        •  I like the idea of Carmona, but I think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          the points he might make are...hard to get across without seeming dickish or whiney and not exactly likely to motivate anyone who doesn't already agree with them.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:40:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe things will change in AZ-Sen (0+ / 0-)

            But I don't think the Dems want to give the keynote address to a candidate who may lose.

            Granted, Warren's position isn't much better. But I'm pretty confident she'll pull it out. Carmona I'm getting increasingly bullish about.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:44:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Warren isn't in a better position than Carmona? (0+ / 0-)

              That seems wildly off to me.

              If anything, I wouldn't want Carmona to be the Keynote because I think demonstrating a little independence would be a good thing for him. I think Arizona can be won by Obama this year, but I suspect he will be judged different than Obama will be.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:18:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I said isn't *much* better (0+ / 0-)

                Which granted could still be wildly off. But being tied in poll after poll in a D+12 is not great. Carmona has made serious moves recently, including outraising Flake.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 06:37:03 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  My bad... (0+ / 0-)

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 08:19:49 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  What about Gov. O'Malley? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, askew, gabjoh

          The man can give a speech.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:41:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  how about Kay Hagan? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          since she's from the state where the convention is at.

          also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

          by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:20:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How about Alison Lundergan Grimes? (0+ / 0-)

            A young, extremely telegenic Democratic woman from the South, who got a higher percentage of the vote than the incumbent governor without, as I understand it, going negative, and who could probably give a positive speech about civic engagement and common values, would be as different from Christie's likely speech as you could find. She might face the same issues are Carmona if/when she runs in 2014 or 2016--only they'd be worse, if she does--but if she manages to do half as well as Obama in 2004, it'd probably be a big boost to her career. And while it might not help as much as I hope, it certainly wouldn't hurt to have a woman give the speech.

            If not her, why not Shelli Yoder? She's utterly charming and just as telegenic as ALG, if we are going for that sort of thing.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:23:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  whodats (0+ / 0-)

              Someone who 99%+ of the convention audience has never heard of would have to be an extraordinarily good speaker to be considered for the keynote. I've never heard Carmona or Castro or Grimes or Yoder speak--are any of them that good?

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:48:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  As opposed to Barack Obama? (0+ / 0-)

                I mean, who the hell heard of him or of Mark Warner (whom I almost called Wark Marner) in 2004 or 2008 outside of Beltway types, Obama in particular?

                I haven't heard any of them speak. If they are weak, I don't want them. But I was just starting from a point of assuming all of them would pass that basic test so we could talk about other characteristics.

                ALG seems to me to be at least decent. The context of thesetwo clips, where very basic, almost plodding language is the norm, isn't a lot to go on, but she looks like someone whom we could shape.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 03:30:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  eh (0+ / 0-)

                  Obama is an extraordinarily good speaker, and Warner was the governor of a fairly big state.

                  Grimes is an ok speaker, I thought she did better in the interview than in the speech although it looks like it was hotter than hell the day she gave that speech. She might get a convention speech if she runs against Rand Paul in 2016, but as of now she's just a downballot officeholder in a small state and she doesn't have Obama's hook or rhetorical skills.

                  SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                  by sacman701 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 04:22:22 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully they'll have more sense than that (0+ / 0-)

        Warren brings zero to the table, aside from a good speech and lots of people can give as good or better speeches.

        Considering the other speakers, a Colorado speaker would be best.  Montana and Indiana are good choices too.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:04:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As I suggested above, what about Shelli Yoder? (0+ / 0-)

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:26:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  House candidates (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, bumiputera

            With what could barely be considered an outside chance of winning should never get the keynote address.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 06:38:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  They went with Rudy last time (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, bythesea, dc1000

      Seems like a trend.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:19:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if we'll see the asshole Christie... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000

      ...or the charmer Christie on stage.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:32:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That depends, LordMike. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Are you attempting to make your way into the Republican convention and egg him on, like we discussed?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:41:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So (0+ / 0-)

      Scott Walker got passed over for Chris Christie. Meh, doesn't really matter, both love to bust unions anyway.

      Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

      by ehstronghold on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:17:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Quinn likely to have VA head to heads tomorrow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    at the crack of dawn, as usual.

    •  I'm on their press release list (0+ / 0-)

      And they didn't say anything about another round of questions from their VA poll. Also, have they even done a single 2013 head-to-head yet? I'm not sure they have. I think they prefer to avoid speculative matchups.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:20:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tea leaves? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      They had O+5 last time. Based on a slight increase in McDonnell's approvals and a slight slip in Warner's, I'm thinking it could be a little tighter now. :(

      •  Probably right...I'll guess Obama at +2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        The poll is 3% less Democratic than last time, and all of that moved toward Independents.  There is an even number of Dems and Reps.  The poll is 4% whiter (69% to 73%), all of which came from the Hispanic/Other categories.

        FWIW, 2004/2008 exit poll had 72%/70% white turnout, 21%/20% black turnout (this poll was consistent with 17% black turnout), 7%/10% all other minorities (this poll had 11% all other minorities), and 28%/30% total minority turnout (this poll has that 28% minority turnout compared to 31% last time).

        So you can definitely make a case that this poll overstates Republican support by 2 or 3 points.  A worst case scenario of sorts for the Obama campaign.

  •  I bet some of those who said "asshole" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, sapelcovits

    were Christie-backing Republicans.  "And proud of it!"

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:17:49 AM PDT

  •  OH-Sen: LOL (5+ / 0-)

    I bet that blogger felt like a moron after she emailed them back.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:27:21 AM PDT

  •  CBS/NY Times poll out tonight, 6:30pm (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, ArkDem14, sulthernao, bythesea, askew

    The tease suggests it's not great news for Obama, but we'll see.

    They havent polled since that controversial panel back survey in May, when they had Romney up by 3.

    •  Their last real poll was 3 months ago (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, dc1000

      When they had it tied.  

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:48:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Jesus, will the media ever understand how to read (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, itskevin, TofG, dufffbeer, askew, sulthernao

      trends in polling, and take into account statistical noise instead of just declaring statements with 100% certainty.

      This statement...

      As for the direction of the country, voters are growing increasingly more pessimistic, however.
      Was attached to this set of data...
      Direction of Country

      Right Direction/Wrong Direction

      Now - 30% R, 64% W

      5/2012 - 31% R, 62% W

      4/2012 - 31% R, 61%

      3/2012 - 29% R, 63% W

      2/2012 - 35% R, 59% W

      1/2012 - 29% R, 65% W

      Ok, now spot the outlier.  Or how about I say America is growing increasingly optimistic since the beginning of the year.  Apparently bouncing around between 29% - 31% right direction, and 61 - 65% wrong direction for 6 out of 7 months with no recognizable pattern/trend now means America is growing "increasingly pessimistic".

      Hire writers that actually know what they're talking about when it comes to polling, so I don't have to read crap like that.

  •  VA Rass: Obama 47-46 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, atdnext, lordpet8

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:43:00 AM PDT

  •  ICYWW, Gallup... (5+ / 0-)

    Is being surprisingly stable this week.

    Obama 47%
    Romney 45%

    Who would have guessed 3 months ago that Gallup & PPP would now have almost exactly the same national trial heat numbers?

  •  Donnelly has a path to win... (3+ / 0-)

    But he needs to drop the cutesy ads and go after Mourdock.  Just take his quote where he said his idea of bi-partisanship is forcing the other side to do things his way - run solely on that.  Paint that attitude as the problem in Washington - it causes gridlock and nothing gets done.  Donnelly can point to his voting record and how he votes against his own party at least 30% of the time and he could even run against the ACA partially saying - it's how you compromise to get things done with hundreds of other people in Congress - you don't have to like everything.  Dick Luger worked with Democrats and voted with them on FP and Judicial issues - Mourdock wants to chain himself to the far right wing corner and say "nothing gets done unless you do it my way".  As one of 100 in the Senate, if everybody does that then nothing will ever get done.  So if you agree with everything Mourdock says than vote for him, but if you believe in compromises, in working together to find solutions than vote for Donnelly.  

    •  He's doing just about everything he needs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, lordpet8, redrelic17

      to win Lugar Republicans/Bayh Democrats. But he also needs to give actual Democrats reasons to vote for him.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:53:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Donnelly is doing great (0+ / 0-)

        His next step is to see what Murdock does next, and next after that.

        There is no reason to attack Murdock now.  There will be new, fresh ammunition as the campaign goes on.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:17:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ben Bernanke is Obama's biggest barrier (5+ / 0-)

    to re-election. This is manifestly true, but maddeningly there seems to be almost no awareness of this, let alone a sustained critique of it, on the part of the left. Instead conservatives have been hounding the Fed for years to drive up unemployment. At any rate, Matt Yglesias explains the situation:

    Under the circumstances, the Fed doesn't get to just observe that the economic outlook is darkening. They are making it darker. It is true that central bankers aren't wizards who can just make anything they want happen. The US economy faces real supply-side constraints.

    So sometimes a central bankers needs to say "hey, we're running up against real restraints so unless someone else does something to solve those problems we're going to need tighter money and slower growth to head off inflation." But that's not what Bernanke is saying here. Nor is he offering a forecast. He's stating a policy preference—namely a preference for a short-term slowdown in demand growth—and members of congress aren't really challenging him on why that's his preference. Maybe he really thinks that 8 percent unemployment is a small price to pay for cheap gasoline. Maybe he thinks Mitt Romney being elected president would be better for the long-term health of the country so he's trying to help out. But whatever he thinks, it's not that the economy is slowing down and then separately he's considering what to do about it. Demand growth is slowing because he and his colleagues are refusing to stabilize it.

  •  AZ-09: Cherny releases his first ad. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:42:14 AM PDT

  •  NC Lt. Gov - I found this kind of interesting (4+ / 0-)
    Moments after it became clear Dan Forest won the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor, his Democratic rival welcomed him to the race with a blistering attack.

    "It is clear that Dan Forest will be nothing more than a rubber-stamp for the divisive, job-killing agenda pushed by the current GOP-majority," Democrat Linda Coleman said in a press release.

    Her campaign also tweeted: "If women aren't at the table, they are on the menu."

    (emphasis mine)

    http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

    It's nice to see a candidate who isn't dancing around the GOP legislature's unpopularity (see Walter Dalton), but I think Coleman is pretty much guaranteed to perform worse than Dalton due to a larger name rec deficit vs. Forest, a more liberal profile than Dalton, and the fact that she is black and this is still North Carolina.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:43:07 AM PDT

  •  By the way, I think today's morning digest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bumiputera

    might have had the lowest number of comments of any of them, clocking in at just 19.  I'm sure it's due to the lead story being fundraising numbers.

    Have we ever had a morning digest or live digest exceed 700 comments?  I think there were some in the 600s.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:55:04 AM PDT

  •  So the last time (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dsh17, ArkDem14

    The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police endorsed a Dem, it was the "powerful liberal" Howard Metzenbaum

    In 1988, Metzenbaum was opposed by Cleveland mayor George Voinovich. Voinovich accused Metzenbaum of being soft on child pornography. Voinovich's charges were criticized by many, including Glenn, Metzenbaum's old-time rival in the Democratic party and then Senate colleague who now came to Metzenbaum's aid, recording a statement for television refuting Voinovich's charges. Metzenbaum won the election by 57 to 43%, even as George H. W. Bush won Ohio's electoral votes by 11 percent.
    His senate colleague was none other than former Astronaut John Glenn

    "I know the loneliness that breaks men's hearts"' - Sam Rayburn (D-TX)

    by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:04:34 AM PDT

    •  Don't understand how Voinovich (0+ / 0-)

      turned that around into a popular 2-term tenure as Governor, and then won two easy elections to the Senate. Or how Cleveland ever had a Republican mayor.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:20:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wonder if Obama has a chance of winning (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea

    the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement for similar reasons that Sherrod Brown did. I remember an article about how FOP nationally was more split on the endorsement, given the restrictions of police unions being passed by the GOP at state level.

    They havent endorsed a Dem for president since Clinton in 1996, and that might be the only Dem, since I think they only have been making presidential endorsements since the late 1980s.

    •  Well if they're real pissed about SB5 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea

      I can't see them endorsing Romney

      "I know the loneliness that breaks men's hearts"' - Sam Rayburn (D-TX)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:32:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They've both filled out FOP's questionnaire (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        Here(PDF).

      •  Neither can I. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        I don't think it's an understatement to say that we need every vote we can get in a state like Ohio. (It's only slightly less true in a state like Wisconsin.) We do win such people regularly, but not as strongly as could.

        There was a big Politico story in April of 2011 about how cop and firefighter union members, many of whom were culturally conservative and thus more likely to vote for Republicans, were PISSED at what Kasich tried to do. Some of them were even talking about never voting for Republicans again. Now, that's probably too much to hope for, and it's not clear that there's a direct line between Kasich, Ohio Republicans, and Romney to Obama and other Democrats, but all things considered, I could see it being worth a bump, if we try.

        You can play with the numbers yourself, but to use my favorite category, which is households with union members, which comprised 28 percent of the electorate in 2008. Obama won this group with 56 percent. Had he won it with 60 percent, he would have gained about 1.12 percent. With 65 percent, it would have been worth an additional 2.52 percent. Obama could drop amongst the larger group, those without union members in their homes, but this could help make up for that, too.

        I don't think this is unrealistic. In fact, Romney would still be getting about a third of the union vote here, basically what Walker got in Wisconsin. Perhaps it could go even higher; I suspect that had Walker been as bold as Kasich, it could have easily backfired for him.

        Of course, there's also stuff like this, which may or may not be a big deal.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:51:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  LA-SEN-2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    Landrieu:
    Raised: $329K
    COH: $1.49 million

    Cassidy:
    Raised: $263K
    COH: $1.85 million

  •  Obama just +5 in NM (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32, itskevin, askew

    according to PPP

  •  PPP NM: Obama 49-44 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, TofG, askew

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:46:22 AM PDT

  •  Hope that's an outlier (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea
  •  WV-SEN-2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, David Nir

    Rockefeller:
    Raised: $87K
    COH: $825K

    Moore Capito:
    Raised: $386K
    COH: $1.42 million

    McKinley:
    Raised: $236K
    COH: $1.36 million

  •  ppppolls... (0+ / 0-)
    We find Barack Obama up only 49-44 in New Mexico, down from leads of 14 and 15 pts on our previous 2 polls
    New Mexico's getting closer because Romney's taking 21% of Democratic vote- traction with ConservaDems
    If Susana Martinez was Romney running mate, NM would be a toss up- Obama lead drops to just 48-47
    Gary Johnson's support in NM keeps dropping- started at 23%, then 15% in April, now at 13%
    Johnson actually takes slightly more from Obama than Romney in NM, Obama leads 42-38 when he's in the mix
    Obama's approval in New Mexico down net 9 pts from April, was 53/44, now splits evenly at 48%
    Romney still not popular in New Mexico- 41/50 favorability- but up a net 13 pts from our April poll there
    New Mexico opposes Obama's new immigration policy 46/41- 5 for 5 on swing states being opposed in our polling now
    Obama certainly still favored in New Mexico, but as in most states it's looking a lot closer
    twitter...

    link...

    •  New Mexico doesnt support Obama's (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, atdnext, askew, sulthernao

      DREAM policy?

      Yeah, something is not right with this poll.

      •  If We Ask had him up by 11 less than 2 weeks ago (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, atdnext, askew

        then I don't put much credence in this result.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:07:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  July 9-10 (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, lordpet8, atdnext, askew

          to be exact. Yeah, I'll wait for another poll to confirm, because there are a lot of red flags on this one.

          •  PPP went into the field three days later (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, DCCyclone

            I hate it when there is no order to things like this when polling makes no sense. I'd be far more comfortable if WAA said 5 and PPP 11. The situation reminds me of Rasmussen in Michigan in comparison to the rest of the data from there.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:57:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right, it's frustrating (0+ / 0-)

              But to me, if it really makes no sense, it has to be an outlier. I mean, when Romney was at 20% with black voters in that NC PPP poll, you could have made a case it was accurate given Obama's new stance on gay marriage. It turns out it was an outlier given that Obama rebounded in the next poll.

              But with this poll. There hasnt been any shift to Romney among Dems nationally or in other swing state, so I have to think this is an outlier. Particularly when they have the WH immigration order upside down.

    •  Does PPP ever openly concede one of their polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      is a likely outlier and that the results they found fly in the face of all logic and conventional wisdom?  Or do they treat each poll exactly the same as others?

      •  I don't think that would be possible (0+ / 0-)

        in real time. The only way you really know something is an outlier is after the fact. For instance, it's theoretically possible (though IMO very unlikely) that something big could be going on in the NM electorate right now that hasn't shown up yet in other polls.

        •  The decline from 2008 is double that in Iowa (0+ / 0-)

          The decline in Iowa is comparable to their national poll. I think that qualifies as real time.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:23:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Iowa and New Mexico are very different (0+ / 0-)

            There's no reason to expect them to decline at the same rates. Although it is strange for Obama to be performing comparatively better in one of the whitest states in the union than in one of the least white.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:08:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, (0+ / 0-)

            I agree it's extremely unlikely, so it's probably an outlier. I just don't think you can say for sure until you have the benefit of hindsight in terms of what other polling firms will report subsequently or contemporaneously.

      •  Never (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, sacman701, DCCyclone

        And it is a pet peeve of mine across the field. There is nothing wrong with people believing in their work but often pollsters treat their numbers as infallible and with little if any regard to polls by other firms. Similarly I would like to see some consideration for internal consistency. Over the same weekend they find an two point national lead and a five point lead in Iowa they find an inexplicable drop in New Mexico. Strangely, the WAA +11 would make perfect sense given the drop from 2008 in the other two releases.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:34:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Outlier ALERT! (8+ / 0-)

      Sorry, but PPP is just downright wrong. The new Latino Decisions poll showed Obama INCREASING support over Romney nationally. The newest WAA poll showed a double digit Obama lead in New Mexico. And even the Fox & Q polls showed support for Obama's immigration policy.

      As I've said before, even good pollsters sometimes release bad outliers. That's what's happening to PPP this week, especially in regards to this New Mexico poll.

      •  Yup, PPP is just plain wrong (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir, aamail6, KingTag, NMLib

        Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is a PPP misfire.

        All other evidence says New Mexico isn't competitive, probably a double-digit Obama lead.  Even Mitt's superpacs aren't playing here except a pittance, with only that minor Concerned Women of America group making any decent-sized buy.

        Don't worry about NM.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:28:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Two big tells here... (0+ / 0-)

        1. There's major movement among Hispanics in this poll towards Romney. Absolutely nothing has happened to move Hispanics away from Obama (if anything, it should be happening to Romney).

        2. This sample is Obama +8 by 2008 vote, Obama won the state by 15 before.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 11:15:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Looks a lot like their North Carolina poll... (6+ / 0-)

      Where Romney was winning 20% of black respondents in North Carolina, and 20% of all Democrats. In New Mexico, that's even less plausible.

      Add that to New Mexico's pronounced tendency to give the Democrat a far larger share of the vote than public polling (Nevada and Hawaii exhibit the same effect), and I have trouble seeing this as a legitimate indication New Mexico is only Lean D.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:27:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Had forgotten about that NC poll (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, the next one showed Obama's numbers back up among black voters, and so that one showing 20% support for Romney looked like an outlier.

        At least with that poll, Obama's gay marriage stance was a plausible reason for movement among black voters.  

      •  Did they at the time state (0+ / 0-)

        "Obama support in black community slipping, still think Obama does really well, but there is some softening in his numbers" or something similar when that poll came out, or did they flat out state they didn't think that number was right?

        •  Tom always takes their numbers as gospel (0+ / 0-)

          Most pollsters do when they comment on their own data.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:04:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NC-SEN-2014 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, lordpet8, KingofSpades

    Hagan:
    Raised: $360K
    COH: $1.15 million

    Ellmers:
    Raised: $140K
    COH: $211K

    McHenry:
    Raised: $140K
    COH: $297K

  •  ME-SEN-2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades

    Collins:
    Raised: $52K
    COH: $749K

    Pingree:
    Raised: $166K
    COH: $349K

  •  MI-14: Dear, Gary Peters (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, R30A

    If I'm squinting to understand the text flashing on screen, while I'm at home, watching on the computer, because I'm one of the ten freaks who actually want to be watching your ad... you need to increase your font a few goddamn sizes.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:18:55 PM PDT

  •  MS-SEN-2014 (0+ / 0-)

    Cochran:
    Raised: $18K
    COH: $320K

    Childers and Taylor have shuttered their accounts. Part of me would be sorry to see Cochran go since he's actually interested in working with the Democrats, and has done a lot good in bringing federal funds to MS. If Jim Hood were to run, well, he'd be much better....

    •  yeah He's been a decent moderate R (0+ / 0-)

      compared to how conservative his state has become.

      He really only had two tough campaigns. His first campaign he benefited from Independent candidate Charles Evers siphoning off enough votes from the Democratic candidate to allow him to win with 45% pluralrity. He then fought off a strong challenge from Governor William Winter in 1984 (benefiting from Reagans' coattails).

      Hood would seem like an interesting candidate. It's amazing we still have a Dem statewide elected in MS for this day and age.

      "I know the loneliness that breaks men's hearts"' - Sam Rayburn (D-TX)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:43:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cochran Is The Best Possible Senator Out of MS.... (0+ / 0-)

      .....since no Democrat would ever win a federal statewide race there.

      •  Is Mississippi getting blacker? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        There's a 3rd Great Migration going on with African Americans from the Northeast and Midwest back to the South. Mississippi and Alabama, and certainly Georgia and South Carolina, could eventually become more competitive federally if that affects the demographics significantly.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 06:44:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          very slowly as compared to states like Florida and Georgia because I Mississippi is still an out migration state for people of all races from what I know.

          In 2009 the children born in the state were ever so slightly majority-minority and black and white births were at close to parity.

          http://www.statehealthfacts.org/...

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 06:48:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            The black share of the population is increasing relative to the white share of the population in every southern state except South Carolina. But the margins are fairly small in states that don't have large metros, i.e., AL, MS, LA, AR, TN.

             But the relative increase for blacks is really significant in three states: Georgia, Florida, and Texas.

            See here.

  •  Take the Hobbs poll with a grain of salt (0+ / 0-)

    Hobbs' campaign conducted the poll themselves, and they said whatever they wanted to respondants. That means they could bash on the other candidates all they wanted, and then ask the question.

    Republicans are far more socialist than Democrats. Just because they want to redistribute the wealth upwards does not make it any better.

    by MrAnon on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:29:53 PM PDT

  •  NV-04: Danny Tarkanian's "Latino outreach" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, askew, KingofSpades

    Is Is so insanely dishonest that it's downright comical! And if you don't believe me, read Ralston's tweets from this morning. Oh, and I heard someone was shooting video. I can't wait to see it.

    Again, I'm telling you. Baby Tark is NOT worth shitting bricks over!

  •  An odd line in Romney's stump speech? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, sulthernao

    I've noticed one line Romney keeps repeating is that Obama has negotiated no new free trade deals. Sometimes it's phrased differently, and some will point out it's wrong, Obama admin got deals with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea done.

    The Romney response is that those were initiated under the Bush admin.

    Okay, fair enough.

    But is this a great line for Romney? Is he winning over any voters with this? I feel like some undecided blue collar workers in the midwest might hear it, and actually be more sympathetic to Obama.

    •  It's a dumb line (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, DCCyclone, bumiputera

      One, it's a blatant lie. Two, how many votes do FTAs really move?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:36:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And how many net votes? (0+ / 0-)

        He might win some on the coasts, but here in the Midwest free trade is pretty unpopular. It's unpopular enough that Democrats will run explicitly protectionist campaigns, and Republicans will use anti-free trade votes to bolster moderate street cred (see Ribble, Reid). Is he actually saying this stuff in Ohio, or just in Virginia, Florida, and NC?

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:47:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Almost every pro-free trade state is safe D (0+ / 0-)

          (or nearly safe D)

          the exceptions are Alaska, NH, ND, and maybe a few more small EV farm states. (maybe AZ too?)

          Even though I'm inclined towards free trade, I would not feel personally hurt if the President goes protectionist in this campaign.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 08:25:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Did Cassis give the right write-in instructions? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DrPhillips

    I remember hearing that a write-in isn't valid unless the candidate's party is indicated.  So if this is right, to have a valid vote for Cassis one would need to write something like "Nancy Cassis (R)," instead of just "Nancy Cassis".  Michigan law also says

    A write-in vote for a candidate seeking nomination to a partisan office in a primary is not valid unless the candidate’s party affiliation, as provided on the Declaration of Intent, is indicated. As the candidate’s party affiliation is a critical part of a write-in vote cast for a partisan office in a primary, write-in votes cast under a different political party are not recorded or certified.
    If I misheard or misread this then whoops for me.  But if I'm right, Cassis' commercial made a pretty big mistake.  It shows the voter writing in only her name and not party.  

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 12:57:57 PM PDT

  •  NC-GOV (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bumiputera, askew

    Just saw on Twitter Pat McCrory is refusing to release his tax returns too.  Anyone think this could hurt?

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:08:52 PM PDT

  •  PA-Redistricing (5+ / 0-)

    For those who care, all the Petitions for Review are here.  Briefing throughout August, oral argument in mid-September.  

    Costa and Holt are the main cases, but I've got one in there too.

  •  Limbaugh doesn't like the new batman movie (7+ / 0-)
    "Do you think it is accidental that the name of the really vicious, fire-breathing, four-eyed, whatever-it-is villain in this movie is named Bane?" Limbaugh asked his listeners.

    Limbaugh did note that the film, the sequel to the 2008 blockbuster "The Dark Knight," has been in the works for a long time, with a summer 2012 release date long part of the plan.

    "So this evil villain in the new Batman movie is named Bane. And there's discussion out there as to whether or not this was purposeful and whether or not it will influence voters. It's going to have a lot of people," he continued. "The audience is going to be huge. A lot of people are going to see the movie. And it's a lot of brain-dead people -- entertainment, the pop culture crowd -- and they're going to hear Bane in the movie and they're going to associate Bain.

    "And the thought is that when they're going to start paying attention to the campaign later in the year," Limbaugh asserted, "and Obama and the Democrats keep talking about Bain, not Bain Capital but Romney and Bain, that these people will start thinking back to the Batman movies, 'Oh yeah, I know who that is!'"

    Presumably, Limbaugh doesn't know the history of Batman and his enemies; Bane was not invented for this film -- he first appeared in 1993 in a storyline called "Knightfall." That was a year before Romney made his first bid for elected office, his unsuccessful 1994 run against Ted Kennedy for the U.S. Senate.

    "I know the loneliness that breaks men's hearts"' - Sam Rayburn (D-TX)

    by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:38:28 PM PDT

  •  Nevada GOP Cat Fud ALERT! (8+ / 0-)

    The Washoe County GOP has just filed with the FEC as a federal committee separate from the Nevada GOP. No, seriously, they just went there. In case you were wondering, the Nevada GOP is still swirling its way down the toilet to irrelevancy... And the County Republican Party in the second most populous county in the state is now seeking a divorce!

  •  New DNC ad starring Mitt Romney's horse (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, askew, KingofSpades

    Hi, I'm new here so I don't know if this is the correct place for me to post this but I thought all of you could enjoy it. Enjoy:

    My favourite part, hands down, was Rick Santorum's expression at 0:38.

    "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

    by Coco Usagi on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:46:44 PM PDT

  •  Second judge rejects Wisconsin voter ID law (9+ / 0-)

    Law "unlikely to protect the electoral process".

    http://www.thenorthwestern.com/...

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 01:48:08 PM PDT

  •  Just saw an RNC ad on CNN. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, DCCyclone

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 02:55:06 PM PDT

  •  Hillary Clinton's favorables with Iowa (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, jj32, lordpet8, Jeremimi

    Democrats at 90/6.

    https://twitter.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 03:10:06 PM PDT

  •  CBS/NY Times: Romney 47-46 (0+ / 0-)

    They have Obama up by only 5 among women.

    Right.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 03:38:13 PM PDT

  •  Good to get the Fox Poll simultaneously with CBS's (7+ / 0-)

    Obama +4 to counter Romney +1. Now let's hope CBS stays out of the field for another two months!

  •  From Nate Silver on Twitter (0+ / 0-)
    Model update will be late tonight due to everyone putting out new numbers in past 30 mins. In the meantime, feel free to overinterpret them.
  •  I see one problem with the CBS/Times poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea, askew

    It has weigh too many independents.  38%.  

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 04:21:08 PM PDT

  •  Poor Peter Kinder (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    Remember him? Looks like the people over at the Missourians for Conservative Values PAC did:

    It makes the Bain attacks look tame as a result.

    "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

    by Coco Usagi on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 04:26:00 PM PDT

  •  fwiw, I dont think either poll today asked (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    about tax returns.

    If it continues to be an issue, I expect we will see it in the next CBS and FOX poll, and in the July NBC poll.

    •  The CBS poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      went into the field before this became a big issue.

    •  I think we know it all without polling it (0+ / 0-)

      It's a given everyone but base GOPers, and even many of them, will say "yes he should release more tax returns."

      It's a foregone conclusion that a supermajority in any and every poll will say that.

      It normally would be a loaded/leading question, designed to produce a desired result, if it weren't amazingly neutral in this instance.

      And most people would say also that refusal to release would have no effect on their willingness to vote for Romney.  A small plurality would say it makes them less likely to vote for him, a very few (probably single-digit percentage) would say more likely.  Most would say "makes no difference."

      I can predict all this without any actual polling, it's just that obvious what people will say.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:43:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bill Clinton Endorses Cherny. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

     I guess it's only a matter of time until Cherny endorses Hillary's 2008 Presidential campaign.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 06:28:58 PM PDT

  •  NV-Pres, NV-Sen: Obama and Heller up (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    Magellan poll for Americans for Prosperity, a right-wing group:  http://media.lvrj.com/...

    Obama up 50-46, but Heller up 45-42.  AFP is going after Berkley, so this seems designed to help Heller.  They have Berkley with badly underwater favorables, Heller sitting pretty in that area.

    What say you, atdleft?

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 07:35:26 PM PDT

    •  If the best Heller can do is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      1 point behind Romney then he's screwed.  There's no way Obama wins by just 4 unless he's losing badly nationally.  Even though it's a downballot election and he and Berkley have lower name rec, Heller still needs to be performing much better than Romney just to have a shot.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 07:52:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Considering the pollster and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        who paid for the poll, the numbers seem okay to me. Particularly for Obama.

        •  What I forgot to mention was... (0+ / 0-)

          ...how this dovetails nicely with David's blurb on NV-Sen.  Once again, a poll shows a margin-of-error race.  Heller has led by 1-3 points in most recent polls, so this is consistent with that.

          I don't buy the disparity in favorables, which I realize might support the argument that the ethics issue is sticking.  AFP's purpose is to help Heller, so I think they goosed those numbers here a little, with a second-tier GOP pollster's complicity.  That disparity in favorables doesn't jibe with a margin-of-error ballot test margin.

          I note also that atdleft revealed here within the past week or two that Berkley's private polling, by Mark Mellman, consistently has Berkley up a point or two.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:25:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  CA-26: Saw a Strickland ad twice tonight (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hankmeister

    The thing is, it wasn't a campaign ad, but a PSA about a coastal clean up he's hosting. This is the first time I've ever seen Strickland do a PSA on the air, although I do know most legislators do many online. It's a very clever way for him to get on the air with in a positive light and not have to touch his campaign funds. There was no campaign or PAC information stated in the ad and it aired twice within an hour.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 09:24:05 PM PDT

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