I would like to take a glance at the 2008 Latino Decisions poll to compare the actual results of the 2008 election to their summer poll from that year.
As we all know, according to the latest Latino Decisions poll from yesterday, Obama is crushing Romney among Hispanic/Latino/Chicano voters by a margin of 70% to 22%.
At roughly this point in 2008, Latino Decisions conducted a poll among Latino voters and found that Obama was leading McCain 60% to 23%. That poll was taken in June, on the tail end of the Democratic primary in which Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the nomination.
Thus, Obama was leading McCain by 37 points among Latinos in the poll. On election day, according to the CNN exit poll, Obama defeated McCain 67% to 31% among Latinos - by a margin nearly identical to the Latino Decisions poll.
I would argue that the Latino Decisions poll is a very good predictor of what the final margin will be for Obama among Latino voters on election day. If, in fact, Obama does defeat Romney by a greater margin than he did McCain in 2008, then Romney has no chance whatsoever to win the Presidency. The Republicans know this. You know this, Obama knows this, and I know this. The only question is whether or not traditionally Democratic constituencies will show up with anywhere near the same force they did in 2008 and in the end I believe that Romney has hit his ceiling whilst Obama has room to grow. Therefore, I predict that Obama will win New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, due in large part to his dominance among the greater Latino community.
Here again is a link to the Latino Decisions poll: http://www.latinodecisions.com/...
and here is a link to the Latino Decisions poll from 2008: