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I would like to take a glance at the 2008 Latino Decisions poll to compare the actual results of the 2008 election to their summer poll from that year.

As we all know, according to the latest Latino Decisions poll from yesterday, Obama is crushing Romney among Hispanic/Latino/Chicano voters by a margin of 70% to 22%.  

At roughly this point in 2008, Latino Decisions conducted a poll among Latino voters and found that Obama was leading McCain 60% to 23%.  That poll was taken in June, on the tail end of the Democratic primary in which Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the nomination.  

Thus, Obama was leading McCain by 37 points among Latinos in the poll.  On election day, according to the CNN exit poll, Obama defeated McCain 67% to 31% among Latinos - by a margin nearly identical to the Latino Decisions poll.  

I would argue that the Latino Decisions poll is a very good predictor of what the final margin will be for Obama among Latino voters on election day.  If, in fact, Obama does defeat Romney by a greater margin than he did McCain in 2008, then Romney has no chance whatsoever to win the Presidency.  The Republicans know this.  You know this, Obama knows this, and I know this.  The only question is whether or not traditionally Democratic constituencies will show up with anywhere near the same force they did in 2008 and in the end I believe that Romney has hit his ceiling whilst Obama has room to grow.  Therefore, I predict that Obama will win New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, due in large part to his dominance among the greater Latino community.  

Here again is a link to the Latino Decisions poll:  http://www.latinodecisions.com/...

and here is a link to the Latino Decisions poll from 2008:  
http://www.latinodecisions.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  Latinos need to turnout in force as well (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, DaleA

    for Obama's advantage to truly work, in fact all members of the Obama coalition need to do so.

    The white vote will turn out in far greater numbers this year than in 2008 when they were demoralized.  This time around they are highly motivated by anger towards President Obama.

    Democrats are, at present, not as motivated as 2008 due to the continuing economic troubles.  The key will be motivating them somehow to turn out despite the economy.  Obama's executive order sparing the children of illegal immigrants from deportation will help get the Latino vote out, the question is whether it'll be enough.  

    "Better the occasional faults of a Government that lives in the spirit of charity than the consistent omissions of a Government frozen in the ice of its own indifference." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by puakev on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 02:50:42 PM PDT

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