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Leading Off:

Ads: I'm probably not alone in finding political ads unbearably boring in their visual content, regardless of their actual substance, so it's nice to see some commentary in AdAge magazine from a practitioner who sees the same problem. (Elizabeth Wilner is a former Charlie Cook assistant who now works in advertising.) Unfortunately, there isn't much of a way around that: there just aren't good visual ways of illustrating complicated economic concepts, so ads just wind up sticking with the usual cliches. Add in the usual time and budget constraints that get in the way of whipping up something clever, and you're left with the same cookie-cutter collections of stock photos, newspaper headlines, and stump footage that predominate. (David Jarman)


CT-Sen: In Dem Rep. Chris Murphy's new ad (his second), two factory owners praise him for helping their businesses. Unlike a lot of such ads, though, Murphy gets somewhat specific here, saying that manufacturers told him "that our military buys too many parts from overseas," he "brought Republicans and Democrats together to start bringing those jobs back." This is a reference to Murphy's leadership of the Buy American movement in Congress; earlier this year, he succeeded in getting an amendment added to a defense appropriations bill that would allow the military to take into consideration the impact on domestic employment when awarding contracts.

MI-Sen: Yeah, the second-quarter FEC filing deadline was over a week ago, but thanks to the Senate's insane refusal to require candidates to file their fundraising reports electronically—they are literally sent in on paper and scanned—it takes a few weeks before that data is available online. Most legit campaigns, though, at least share their quarterly hauls with the media. Others, though, use this antiquated system to hide crappy numbers, either by sending out a press release when fewer people are paying attention, or by saying nothing at all and just waiting until the FEC finally processes their forms.

It certainly looks like GOP ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra falls into that category, waiting until the very end of last week to share his fundraising totals—and you can understand why. He only pulled in $734K (Michigan is the 8th-largest state in the nation) and has just $1.7 million on hand. Hoekstra's chief primary rival, Clark Durant, took in an even feebler $273K but has $1.4 mil in the bank. By contrast, Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow—who announced her numbers right away—raised $1.4 million and has $4.5 mil saved up.

OH-Sen: Rasmussen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46 (47), Josh Mandel (R): 42 (42).

WA-Sen, WA-AG: The SurveyUSA poll of Washington that was released on Thursday also had Senate and Attorney General portions down in the fine print. The Senate race remains barely competitive; Dem incumbent Maria Cantwell is past the 50% mark (at 51), while Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner is back at 40. The race to succeed Rob McKenna as AG remains just as tight as the Governor's race, though: Dem Bob Ferguson and GOPer Reagan Dunn (both King County Councilors) are tied at 37 apiece. (David Jarman)


NJ-Gov: This is a bit unusual: Colm O'Comartun, the executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, publicly talked up EPA director Lisa Jackson as a possible candidate to take on GOP Gov. Chris Christie next year. The proverbial Great Mentioner has certainly brought up Jackson's name many times, but you don't often see folks in O'Comartun's position do a little light recruitment through the pages of Politico. Nevertheless, O'Comartun says that "[t]he DGA would be excited if Lisa Jackson was looking to run for governor." He also added that he thinks state Sen. Richard Codey "would be a great candidate who would match up well against Gov. Christie."


CA-24, CA-47: There are two new Republican internal polls out in southern California, both handily wrapped up by Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad. In the Santa Barbara-based 24th, former LG Abel Maldonado's survey (from Public Opinion Strategies) purports to show him trailing Dem Rep. Lois Capps by just a 48-46 margin. Meanwhile, down in the open 47th, Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong says his internal (from Probolsky Research) has him down only 44-41 versus Dem state Sen. Alan Lowenthal. Capps continues to outraise Maldonado handily, but Lowenthal's fundraising has been anemic all cycle and DeLong beat him better than 2-to-1 in the most recent quarter.

MN-06: I guess even Michele Bachmann is capable of pushing things too far for members of her own party to stomach—or at least, making them uncomfortable enough that they have to act like they're upset with her. You probably caught wind of her accusing State Dept. official Huma Abedin of having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, which prompted the likes of John Boehner to call her remarks "dangerous" and John McCain telling her to "stop now."

But that didn't stop Bachmann, who on Thursday claimed to Glenn Beck that fellow Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison also is associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. (Obviously both statements are utter bullshit.) Bachmann knows how to play to her base, but I'm not sure she's ever been smacked down quite like this by other Republicans before. And she faces a legitimate opponent this fall in the form of Democrat Jim Graves, so I'm not sure that this crusade makes sense for her even as a cynical political calculation. Then again, when has Michelle Bachmann ever made sense?

MO-01: Hah, haven't seen this before. Rep. Russ Carnahan just sent mailers attacking fellow Rep. Lacy Clay that include a greeting-card style audio chip that plays a clip of Clay speaking out in favor of the rent-to-own industry. Carnahan likens rent-to-own firms to predatory pay-day lenders, since rent-to-own companies often also charge very high interest rates; Clay of course rejects the comparison. Meanwhile, Clay is out with his first TV ad of the campaign, a positive spot in which he talks about his support for all the big Democratic agenda items (protecting Medicare, backing healthcare reform, etc.). By the way, if you've never heard Clay's distinctive, extremely scratchy voice before, definitely click the link.

NY-24: I guess the Republican establishment isn't pitching freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle overboard just yet. Buerkle, perhaps the most endangered GOP incumbent after Illinois's Joe Walsh, is facing re-election in a decidedly blue district (Obama +14), against a strong opponent she only barely beat last cycle, ex-Rep. Dan Maffei. She doesn't seem to have adapted to her new reality very well, recently declaring in a speech on the House floor that her constituents' top priority is the fallout over Operation Fast and Furious, a conservative pet issue, and not, you know, jobs and the economy. But nevertheless, House Speaker John Boehner is coming to the district for a fundraiser early next month. It may just be that Boehner's stopping there because it's convenient: A day earlier, he's headlining an event for Matt Doheny in the adjacent 21st District, a more competitive race and one of the GOP's few potential pickup opportunities this fall.

TX-33: Burnt Orange Report got a hold of that new Realtors ad we mentioned the other day, backing state Rep. Marc Veasey in the Democratic runoff. It's a positive spot that doesn't offer much in the way of specifics, but in a nod to the people behind it, the narrator says Veasey's "been a leader in the Texas legislature, supporting home ownership and access to affordable mortgages." (The buy is for $150K.) The League of Conservation Voters also just gave their support to Veasey, but no word on whether they're going to spend anything. Veasey faces ex-state Rep. Domingo Garcia in the primary, who was once described by Texas Monthly writer Paul Burka as a "one-man leper colony."

Grab Bag:

California: In case you missed it, on Thursday, dreaminonempty took another deep look at the Daily Kos/SEIU raw polling data, aggregating responses from California interviewees. Of course, the direction of the presidential race isn't in doubt, but there's a lot of interesting information to be gleaned about the generic congressional ballot—important, of course, given how many House seats are potentially up-for-grabs in the Golden State this year.

DCCC/NRCC: It was neck-and-neck during the month of June for the two major House campaign committees. The NRCC narrowly edged the DCCC, with $10.7 million raised vs. $10.5 mil for the Dems. Republicans also maintain a sizable cash-on-hand lead, too, $41 mil to $32 mil.

Wisconsin: As we've seen in almost every other state, PPP's Wisconsin miscellany finds support for gay marriage increasing at a rapid clip. Last August, Wisconsinites opposed the idea by a 39-50 margin. Now, it's down to just 43-47. In much more shocking news, PPP pitted Wisconsin's two most famous foodstuffs—beer and cheese—in a head-to-head and found dairy absolutely crushing alcohol, 64-18. I'm so stunned, I think I need to grab a brew.

Redistricting Roundup:

WI Redistricting: Even though the legislature is out of session, Democrat John Lehman's victory in last month's state Senate recall election has already paid dividends. Not long ago, state Sen. Mark Miller became the chamber's new majority leader, and the switchover has given Democrats new powers and privileges. At the top of Miller's agenda was a request to Michael Best & Friedrich, the law firm Republicans used during redistricting, to turn over all of their files related to the entire remapping saga. Even though the legislature itself was supposedly Michael Best's client—and lawyers are obligated to share their work with their clients—attorneys for the firm refused to provide any materials to Democratic lawmakers. But with Miller now in charge, Michael Best finally decided to comply with its ethical obligations and hand over the requested documents. The best part is that Miller has promised to make the files public.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Another month, another doom story on the CA GOP: (5+ / 0-)

    "This would seem a moment of great opportunity for California Republicans. The state has become a national symbol of fiscal turmoil and dysfunction, the Legislature is nearly as unpopular as Congress and Democrats control every branch of government," the New York Times reports.

    "But instead, the state party... is caught in a cycle of relentless decline, and appears in danger of shrinking to the rank of a minor party... Registered Republicans now account for just 30% of the California electorate, and are on a path that analysts predict could drop them to No. 3 in six years, behind Democrats, who currently make up 43%, and independent voters, with 21%."

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:17:51 AM PDT

  •  Some attempts at ads (0+ / 0-)

    with unconventional visuals:



    "The Pig"

  •  TV ads don't *need* to be boring. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Eliot Spitzer, courtesy of Jimmy Siegel, had some really great ones.

    Fuck me, it's a leprechaun.

    by MBNYC on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:36:34 AM PDT

  •  Buerkle v. Maffei (5+ / 0-)

    I live in the NY 24, and god to I want to see Ann Marie Buerkle go away. Alas, I can't agree that Dan Maffei is a strong opponent.  Don't get me wrong - he's a terrific congressman, and would make a great addition (return) to the democratic side of the aisle. But he's not a terribly strong campaigner.  

    This one remains a nailbiter for me, and also, I think, one of the most important of the congressional races, both because it should be winnable and because Buerkle's politics are truly toxic.

    "One of the secrets of life is that all that is really worth the doing is what we do for others." - Lewis Carroll, 1832-1898

    by Audio Guy on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:44:06 AM PDT

  •  The comedy keeps on coming from Scotty Razz (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, KingofSpades, bythesea, askew

    Obama with a 49% approval rating but getting only 43% in the head-to-head matchup.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:47:09 AM PDT

    •  beat me to it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That is laughable. Be interesting what Gallup shows.Ras actually has  Obama with a better approval but Gallup has him ahead.
      Without Rasmussen polls my guess is Obama would pick up a point in aggregate polling. Ras also shows 6% voting 3rd party. not very likely. Seems like he needs to keep Romney ahead by 3 points for some reason.

      •  This is a consistent issue with Ras though (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Currently, I think the gap between approval and Obama's standing in the head to head is pretty wide.

        But I think almost every poll he has approval rating between than Obama's % in the head to head, and that just doesnt make any sense.

  •  Somebody here made a mistake (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Aquarius40, askew

    Mitt Romney and Australian official disagree on comment that U.S. is ‘in decline’

    Either Bob Carr for saying such a comment to a presidential candidate or Romney for repeating it publicly or Romney for twisting what Carr said. Or perhaps some combination of the above.

  •  First Read this morning (0+ / 0-)

    details on fundraising for the campaigns and how the campaigns are to start up this week:

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:53:35 AM PDT

    •  Was just about to post this (6+ / 0-)

      The snippet, highlighted by Politicalwire is good:.  

      While the campaigns control the party/victory fund money, there are limitations in how they're able to use it. For example, coordinated party expenditures are limited to $21.7 million in this presidential contest."

      "Overall in June, GOP presidential campaign entities (Romney camp, RNC, American Crossroads, Restore Our Future) outraised the Dem groups (Obama camp, DNC, Priorities USA Action), $99 million to $72.6 million. So again: The Obama campaign has more money directly in its control, and Romney will be the beneficiary of a lot of help from outside groups."

      Something to keep in mind about the RNC/DNC numbers.

  •  Oof, harsh for Penn State, but understandable: (0+ / 0-)

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:54:58 AM PDT

    •  Not harsh enough (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I would have been far more punitive had I been in charge.

      Language professors HATE me!

      by Zornorph on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:01:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's an implicit request to drop the fball program (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        My understanding is that the sanctions essentially reduces the Penn State program to 1a or lower status, a point where it might no longer make money for the University, ref

        The death penalty would have been one or two years. After that time, the program would have been allowed to rebuild and would be able to bring attention to itself again. Even with a two-year hibernation, Penn State football would still be a big part of Happy Valley, and the program would have interest.

        Not anymore.

        Penn State would do well to drop football all together. And the NCAA has now given them financial incentive to do so.

        The DKE-related question -- will a PA politico support dropping Penn State football. Under the circumstances, I think it would be a winning issue, though I haven't seen any polling on the question.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:17:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  they'll still make money (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Most of their fans will probably still show up for the games, and a down period for PSU would make it easier and cheaper for visiting fans to make the trip to Unhappy Valley. Their gate revenue will likely fall, but not drastically.

          On the other hand if they were to drop football entirely, their only revenue generator would be basketball which has not been strong historically They would probably end up in about the same boat as Wisconsin-Milwaukee: a big public school that doesn't play football and is nothing special in basketball. They would have to scale their whole athletic department way down. PSU currently offers 15 sports for men and 14 for women, UWM has 6 for men and 7 for women. A lot of students would lose their scholarships, a lot of coaches and other staff would get fired, and the remaining ones would be paid a lot less.

          All else equal, schools that play football get more donations than those that don't but obviously this would be a special case. PSU's alumni base is football-crazy and I suspect that they would alienate more of their alums by dropping football than by keeping it.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:30:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gate receipts will become a problem... (0+ / 0-)

   losing seasons pile up.  And they will.

            We'll know everything we need to know about the next few seasons based on how many and how quickly current players transfer, especially the good ones.  I expect there will be a mass exodus relatively quickly.  I don't know how many will leave immediately since there's little time before fall camp, and available scholarships are scarce elsewhere this close to a new season.  But by 2013 spring ball, Penn State's roster will look real ugly.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:59:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  That's not true, it's not quite that far (5+ / 0-)

          Yes it's correct that what Penn State got really is at least as harsh as the death penalty, and perhaps really harsher.

          But it's not an inducement to drop football altogether, that doesn't make any sense.  Keeping football means the school in the future, even if now only a distant future will make some money from it, just not nearly as much.  Dropping football guarantees zero revenue.  That Penn State is in the Big Ten means at some point they'll make some money again once the sanctions period has ended and they can start to rebuild.  And a decade from now, they might very well be on the way back to respectability.  Nothing in today's sanctions prevent that.

          As I pointed out below, what really killed SMU long-term wasn't just the death penalty on the school, but the unraveling of the whole Southwest Conference.  That's what guaranteed SMU would remain forever in purgatory, since they had no other natural fit in a major conference that would have any incentive to take them.  Penn State is fine that way because the Big Ten isn't going anywhere.  And unlike SMU, Penn State isn't in a state loaded with other strong football schools, as only Pittsburgh and Temple play officially at the same level, and Temple really is very minor.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:36:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  that's what I thought too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but apparently SMU got the 'death penalty' for doing something that was much less wrong?

      Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

      by Bharat on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:17:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  to be clear, I think the penalties are entirely (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bumiputera

        appropriate. harsh as in they are harsh, but entirely fair.

        Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

        by Bharat on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:18:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        At first thought it seemed harsh, but remembering how deep the problem was, it now looks much more fair.

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:30:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Different situation (0+ / 0-)

        The "death penalty" is supposed to be for infractions that have a direct impact on games that the NCAA oversees. The SMU scandal involved recruiting violations and payments involving players who played in the games.

        While the Penn St situation was much more heinous it didn't involve player violations or playing games with ineligible players.

        I think this was a special situation that the NCAA didn't view as an apples to apples comparison to SMU.

      •  This is a death penalty no less than SMU's (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, KingofSpades, Bharat, tietack

        Banning a school from playing football for a year is not anymore harsh than what Penn State got today.

        The $60 million fine is a big deal given the prohibition on taking the money from other sports, so football alone takes the hit.  And the huge loss of scholarships is devastating, it reduces Penn State to a I-AA or Division II level program for the affected years.

        And the little-discussed killer is the permission current players get to transfer and play right away at their new chosen schools.  That's a huge deal, it destroys any incentive they have to stay, since at Penn State they would have no bowl game, not Big Ten title, no national title, and likely bad seasons from the loss of scholarships, not to mention the stigma the program now has.  The only thign left would've been avoiding the standard requirement of sitting a year and, for players who already redshirted, losing a year of play.  But now that that disincentive to leave is removed, all the best players will leave Penn State, and the program will be decimated for years to come.  They will be a losing program struggling to win 2-3 games a year for a long time to come.

        The effect on Penn State will be the same as the effect was on SMU, the notion that SMU got a "worse" punishment is incorrect.

        Also, one notable thing that people don't realize is that what killed SMU long-term was the demise of the Southwest Conference.  Without the SWC, SMU was left shopping for a minor conference that would have them.  That's one thing Penn State likely avoids, as the Big Ten will keep them and isn't going anywhere.

        One side beneficiary of all this might be Nebraska, which as the new kid on the block in the Big Ten might see its stature rise as a substitute to Penn State to pick up the slack for the conference.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:12:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If we have any chance to take the House... (13+ / 0-) has to be done on the back of the information provided in this David Rogers piece in Politico:

    Note that the story focuses on the farm bill, but includes a broader discussion of the House's dysfunction.

    Some key text:

    Never before in modern times has a farm bill reported from the House Agriculture Committee been so blocked.  POLITICO looked back at 50 years of farm bills and found nothing like this.  There have been long debates, often torturous negotiations with the Senate and a famous meltdown in 1995 when the House Agriculture Committee couldn’t produce a bill.  But no House farm bill, once out of committee, has been kept off the floor while its deadline passes.

    If pushed into November’s lame-duck session, farmers will join Medicare physicians whose pay will be running out, idled workers worried about jobless benefits, and very likely, millions of families faced with expiring tax breaks.

    For all the backslapping over the recent transportation bill, that measure expires in just 15 months.

    That's stuff House Dems should be able to use for a unified attack message.  It's sufficiently nonpartisan that Blue Dogs and others in tough districts, including our many challengers, can unify around it.  It's basically that the House GOP can't even do the simplest stuff of governance, the fundamentals of public service are above their heads.

    I guess we'll see what they decide to make their unified message, if any.  If there isn't one, I'd have to conclude House Dems are as inept in politics as House GOPers are at governance.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:57:14 AM PDT

    •  I don't know (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bumiputera

      I think this would only be a big issue in ag-dominated midwestern districts. Most of the country doesn't like farm subsidies. I could see Vilsack beating King over the head with it and maybe Crooks, Mullen (?), and Kreitlow could get some traction with it.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:38:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe WI-01 and WI-08 as well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bumiputera

        depending on whether Ryan and Ribble have been smart about the issue. WI-01 is a big milk-producing district (particularly Walworth County), and WI-08 has some dairy, some fruit, and lots of row crops. I'd say that all Wisconsin districts other than WI-04 and WI-05 probably support farm subsidies (note that this includes WI-02. Baldwin has always been a fan of ag subsidies).

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:16:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You missed what I wrote (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Christy1947

        This isn't about just the farm bill.  Look again at my blockquoted language, it's about the transportation bill, Medicare reimbursement rates, unemployment compensation, etc.  It's about the House GOP unable to push out basic bills that used to be routine before this Congress.

        The theme is that the House GOP can't do the basics.  That's a national theme, the material is there to use in every district.

        Looking more narrowly at the farm bill alone, that actually is a problem beyond the Midwest, there are plenty of districts nationwide affected by this.

        But again, it's not about just the farm bill.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:55:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm glad that someone else is annoyed (3+ / 0-)

    About the "all working-class people work in factories" political advertising cliche.  Show some nurses or something!  

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:05:29 AM PDT

    •  Even in (0+ / 0-)

      The two biggest private employers are, I think, Wal-Mart and the University of Pennsylvania (mostly the hospital).  According to the state department of labor, "trade, transportation, & utilities" and "education & health services" employ many more workers in PA than does "manufacturing".  And, as many have pointed out, many people who work in manufacturing still work at a desk or in an office.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:13:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *Even in "industrial" PA (0+ / 0-)

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:14:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As do "government" and (0+ / 0-)

        "Professional & business services".  Those four sectors account for nearly two-thirds of the state's nonfarm jobs.  According to the federal BLS, Ohio is a pretty similar picture, although less so and with a somewhat larger share of jobs in manufacturing.  But those four sectors still cover much of the state.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:31:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Am I reading too much into the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, pademocrat

    fact that O'Comartun talked up Jackson and Codey but NOT Cory Booker?  I really and truly hope that Booker has burned some tangible bridge in NJ Dem politics.

    I haven't lived in NJ since '99 but my vote would go to Codey.  He seems like a great guy and Corzine was an assh*le to not step aside for hm back in '08.

  •  OMG, not "boring" political ads! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That's right, you can't engage voters unless you dangle lots of shiny objects in front of them. Make it exciting!

    I call BS. Remember when the media roundly mocked Ross Perot for using charts and graphs in his televised campaign speeches? How quaint: trying to make your case with actual facts!

    Perot, of course, had plenty of problems, but charts and graphs weren't among them. Somebody thought to poll the issue, and discovered that the public actually liked his charts and graphs (funny, though, I don't remember any "we were wrong" stories by the pundits).

    I've often thought that Obama should use more visual aids to make his economic case. They really can be part of a compelling story.

    What is valued is practiced. What is not valued is not practiced. -- Plato

    by RobLewis on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:10:12 AM PDT

  •  FYI, my new diary on AFP Nevada... (4+ / 0-)

    A bizarre Nevada Legislature Democratic primary, and how it may come back to bite "Tea Party, Inc."

  •  CT-Sen: Chris Shays pops off against McMahon (7+ / 0-)

    Looks like someone's suffering a popped ego:

    “I have never run against an opponent that I have respected less — ever — and there are a lot of candidates I have run against,” Shays told the New Haven Register editorial board on Friday. He also accused her of buying the nomination, and refusing to hold similar meetings with newspaper boards: “It is a huge distortion to say she is out there meeting the public and that is the better way to do it — bulls***.”
    He refused to support her should she win the nomination.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:51:20 AM PDT

  •  MN-06: Jim Graves feels more bullish (7+ / 0-)

    in his run against Bachmann:

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:57:23 AM PDT

  •  PPP vs. SUSA on marriage (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, itskevin, James Allen, supercereal

    SUSA brings us a much bleaker picture of gay rights than PPP did. In Minnesota, they have the anti-gay amendment passing by a monster 52-37, whereas PPP actually had it trailing slightly. (Note: in SUSA's poll, 5% said they wouldn't vote on the amendment, which counts as a no vote.) SUSA has notoriously sucked at polling MN in the past, so i hope this is a continuation of that trend.

    SUSA has also had a bad track record in the PacNW, but their numbers in WA (R-74 passing 50-43 - see the Morning Digest link) aren't too different from PPP's. Cautiously optimistic there. Right now, if I had to rank the four states voting in November on likelihood of victory, I'd say...

    Maine > Maryland > Washington > Minnesota

    Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:06:46 AM PDT

    •  clarification (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the 37% in that MN poll are people who explicitly said they will vote no. So if you add the non-voters, it's really 52-42. Still, obviously not a good place to be.

      Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:07:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I trust SUSA as a rule less than others here (0+ / 0-)

        I don't regard SUSA as that good a pollster.  They've had too many wild outliers for me to give them anymore credence than anyone else, and I don't give a lot of credence to Nate Silver's regard of them.  Their business model is cheap dimestore polls for local TV stations and local newspapers in medium-to-small markets, and I think it shows.  As I noted recently regarding SUSA's latest Florida effort, their atrocious VA-05 polling throughout 2010 left me distrusting them more as a rule than as an exception.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:33:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  SUSA has a bad track record in MN as well. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      They've consistently had problems polling this state.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:39:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Doesn't it feel like Bachmann (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, DCCyclone, supercereal

    has been around FOREVER? It's hard to me to think she's only been around since 2006.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:22:48 AM PDT

  •  Don't underestimate New Mexico District 2! (0+ / 0-)

    Steve Pearce may yet win, but I think Evelyn Madrid Erhard has a good shot at it.  For one thing Pearce has been digging himself a bit of a hole over his opposition to any new significant wilderness areas or national monuments (even proposals supported by former Republican Senator Pete Domenici), his defiance of Forest Service regulations, and  his obvious ownership by the extractive industries.  

    He has at least $1 million and Evelyn perhaps $50,000, but just maybe somebody with a real personality and interest in the public good might be able to beat someone without either!

    District 2 is, land-wise, bigger than Pennsylvania, and "Little Texas" makes any Democrat a difficult sell.  Still Evelyn has ventured into this hostile territory.  She certainly has a strong will and an excellent background.  She just might make it!

  •  WA: You know you have a boring race when (0+ / 0-)

    for AG, the Seattle Times promotes teh R guy because . . . he has more trial experience. Apparently, the Times has not tipped to the fact that the only time any AG appears in court is when he wants publicity. That's the best they could do.

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