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The new week brings little data, but does bring a couple of things worth talking about as we lumber through the dog days of summer. The national tracking polls yield few clues about what the hell is going on in the presidential race, but the DCCC gets a few points for proper technique in the always intriguing internal polling game.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 43

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA for KSTP): Obama d. Romney (46-40)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-47 (DCCC Internal Poll): Alan Lowenthal (D) 47, Gary DeLong (R) 36

MN-SEN (SurveyUSA for KSTP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 31

PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 38

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

The two lead stories on the Wrap tonight play on recurring themes—trying to draw conclusions about the two daily presidential tracking polls (which is uncharacteristically difficult to do), and trying to draw conclusions about internal polling (which is substantially easier).

It's not just the fact that Mitt Romney has enjoyed a mini-surge in both tracking polls with no discernible reason for the movement. It is the fact that the slight fade in Obama's numbers do not appear to have much of a relationship with the president's job approval numbers, even according to the same pollster!

Consider: Gallup's job approval for President Obama released one week ago was a slight net positive (47/45). Today, the president's job approval numbers were underwater, and not by a point or two (44/49). The represents a net drop of seven points in one week.

In that same time span, though, the presidential head-to-heads have scarcely moved: Obama had a 47-45 lead over Mitt Romney a week ago, while today that lead is ... 46-45. For the math-impaired, that is a one point net drop in the same week.

Rasmussen, meanwhile, inexplicably went the other direction. Barack Obama has never had great approval numbers, according to the House of Ras, but today marked one of his better performances (49/50) this month. That was actually a few points better than Obama performed at this point last week (47/52). Again, though, the numbers barely moved in the head-to-head. However, for Obama, he is actually in (statistically insignificant) worse shape than he was last week, with today's poll matching Romney's biggest lead for the month (Romney +3).

Gallup's could be explained plausibly by one key difference in their data: Their approval numbers are off a three-day sample, while their horserace numbers are off a seven-day sample. So, if the president's horserace numbers continue to erode in Gallup's tracker this week, we might know why. And, of course, with shifts this minimal, it could all be float. But you would still expect things like presidential job approval and head-to-head performance for the incumbent to roll on parallel tracks. This week, thus far? Not so much.

Meanwhile, kudos (of a sort) to the DCCC for playing smart defense for one of their candidates. Last week, as we noted in Friday's Wrap, the campaign of GOP contender Gary DeLong (CA-47) fired off a poll showing him within three points of Democrat Alan Lowenthal, generally considered to be the betting favorite in the newly constructed district that straddles the Los Angeles and Orange County borders.

So, the D-Trip (who apparently, according to Kyle Trygstad's article, has their own polling shop. Who knew?) countered with a poll of their own, giving Lowenthal a more comfortable 11-point edge. Always good to try to smother a narrative before it takes hold, and good on them for that.

In other polling news ...

  • The new Rasmussen Senate poll in the Keystone State might weaken the cred for that presidential poll last week, which had Mitt Romney within 4 points of the president. Simply put, it is pretty tough to find another pollster in the game (and multiple pollsters have tested this race) that has had Republican Tom Smith this close to Sen. Bob Casey. Could the race end up this close? Sure. Smith is still comparably little-known, and Casey's approval numbers in all polls to date have been kind of "meh." But is it 11 points now? I am skeptical.
  • Meanwhile, another case study in not-very-good poll reporting comes from KSTP in Minnesota, which contracted with SurveyUSA to poll the state's presidential and senatorial contests. The KSTP write-up of their own poll notes that the lead for Barack Obama has been "cut in half" from the previous SUSA poll in the state. What the write-up fails to note is that SUSA added a likely voter screen in the interim, which study after study (including a recent piece by Mark Blumenthal confirms will goose support for Republicans. Rookie move by the client for SUSA to not clarify that this really is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
  • Is Barack Obama's approval rating a harbinger of doom, as many pundits have long opined? Maybe, but maybe not. Gallup dug into their own archives, and found that Obama's approval rating from April 1 through June 30 was quite a bit worse than most presidents who were successfully reelected. That's the bad news for Obama supporters. The good news? He also was ahead of the pace of all three presidents of recent vintage who failed to be reelected (Ford, Bush 41 and Carter). Obama's 14th quarter net approval numbers (46.8) was almost exactly at the midpoint between that of Gerald Ford (46.0) and George W. Bush (47.9). That is notable, of course, because Bush narrowly won reelection, while Ford narrowly lost. Yet another data point that screams "coin flip" about this upcoming battle for the White House.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  CA-47 (4+ / 0-)

    I live about 5 miles north of this district and the release of this internal poll kind of concerns me. Why is the DCCC releasing a 1 day poll with a high margin of error? To this untrained eye, it seems like they were kind of surprised by Delong's internal. I really hope they don't have to provide money to Lowenthal but I am starting to get concerned this contest might be close. Am I too worried?

    29, M, Swingnut, new CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus.

    by uclabruin18 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:56:05 PM PDT

  •  Trackers are generally garbage and I ignore (5+ / 0-)

    Them except for PR value.  SUSA MN looks like a bad sample.  No real growth for Romney, just more undecided.  If Klobuchar is up that big,Obama will win easily.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:56:21 PM PDT

    •  Klobuchar vs. Obama (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      belzaboo, Minnesota Mike, WisJohn

      It really doesn't work that way, at all. Klobuchar won by 20 points in 2006, which obviously meant that Governor Hatch cruised to victory himself. /snark

      •  Except it really does work that way (0+ / 0-)

        Presidential elections are mostly -- nearly all -- partisan affairs. There are a few states like the Dakotas who have a long tradition of splitting the ticket between the top two lines, but that's really unusual. Democrats and Democratic leaning Indies that show up will vote for Klobuchar and Obama. Nearly all of them.

        •  How about Obama winning by 10 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          belzaboo

          White Franken won by 213 (votes). The argument falls flat. I am not a big believer in coattails, as there are more exceptions than there are examples

          •  apples v. oranges (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            The 2008 MN senate race was a three way, with Franken, Coleman, and a relatively well-known Independence Party candidate, who pulled 15% of the vote.  

            You can't compare Franken's three way plurality with Obama's two way share of the vote.

            I have no doubt that Franken would have lost if Obama had not generated as much turnout as he did in MN in 2008.  

            •  Relatively unknown IP candidate? (0+ / 0-)

              You mean Former United States Senator Dean Barkley? He is about as well known of an IP candidate as you're going to get.

              Look, you can believe in coattails if you want, but it doesn't change the numbers.

        •  Klobuchar is very popular (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy

          and there will be a lot of Romney/Klobuchar voters. Her challenger is also nothing special, because the GOP leadership there does not think they can win that seat. If Klobuchar is up big, the sky is blue.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 11:32:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •   USA/Gallup: Romney preferred handle economy (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffejoe, belzaboo, auditor, Tuffie

    I saw this poll today and was slightly concerned.  My feeling is that it is a national poll and Obama has been strong in the battlegrounds.  

    I have also seen other polls indicating Bane was a drag on ROmney.  

    Interested analysis from others.

    http://www.usatoday.com/...

    By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years.

    The findings raise questions about Obama's strategy of targeting Bain's record in outsourcing jobs and hammering Romney for refusing to commit to releasing more than two years of his tax returns. Instead, Americans seem focused on the economy, where disappointment with the fragile recovery and the 8.2% unemployment rate are costing the president.

  •  will anything break the deadlock? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    I know I should just ignore the polls until two or three weeks after the second convetion, but they're sooooo addictive... and this is only July.  

    It's even worse this year since we pretty much know that it's been Obama by 2 points for months now. That means every little blip is gonna seem like a big change in the race.

    WILL THERE BE ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE RACE?

    I kind of doubt it.

    I can imagine only two "developments" that would really  break open the race :

    1. The economy gets noticeably better or noticeably worse between now and election day.

    2. Romney's appearances at the convention and debates (when more people are paying attention) do not go over well. Possibly all of Romney's flip-flopping catches up with him.  In the end, people just don't like him and he never breaks his "ceiling".

    Sure, there could always be something crazy  (a big scandal for either candidate, Romney becomes charismatic) but those things don't strike me as likely. I think the likely event is that it stays close until either Obama's superior favorables pull him over the line or the economy pulls him under.

    I don't expect policy to have much to do with it.

    •  Nothing has changed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin

      And honestly, no one is paying attention other than hardcore junkies

    •  The Debates . . .n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash
    •  The unexpected (0+ / 0-)

      War, national disaster, huge skeleton in closet.

      Maybe debates, but really only if the President were to get destroyed by Romney, the expectations going in will be that the President is the better speaker.

      Aliens landing (not sure who that helps, probably depends on the aliens).

      The best pizza comes from New York.

      by JakeC on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:23:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In 1980 the polls were fairly even... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      ...though Carter did have a 6 point lead in April.  Then in August it blew up for Reagan and Jimmy Carter never recovered.

      Luckily unlike in 1980 the economy isn't souring and people feel upbeat about the direction the country is moving in.  Hopefully history won't repeat itself.

      I think we won't be able to gauge the race until the convention when the candidates will finally don their final sales pitch to the country.  Obama needs to give the country a reason to give him another four years.  Romney needs to find a way to sell himself to the center without losing the right and coming off as too inauthentic.

      What of course can mix things up is foreign policy.  Assad's days are increasingly numbered.  And even if Republicans try to spin it as a failure like they absurdly tried with Gadaffhi it'll work to Obama's benefit.  A small benefit but a benefit nonetheless.

      A bigger potential to mix things up is Iran and any potential strikes on their nuclear program by either Israel or the United States.

      Unfortunately the biggest potential to influence the US elections is Europe.   If the Euro collapses pre-election bringing down the world economy Obama could see his support collapse across the board right out from under him.

      You'd think you could sell a message of "Spain just went under.  Let's not do what Spain did like Romney wants" would sell.  And you'd be wrong.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 03:01:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  As is so often pointed out, the national polls (0+ / 0-)

      are meaningless. We do not have a national election. Obama has been making significant gains in the battleground states, the ones that can make a difference in November. He is not running away with the race, but the narrative that the race is close is just the media trying to get more attention.

      I am looking forward to Romney shooting himself in ever more feet as the campaign goes on.

      Hands off my ObamaCare[TM] http://www.healthcare.gov

      by Mokurai on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 09:05:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does the new "The Choice" ad mean Bain ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    belzaboo

    didn't work and being abandoned?

    OFA also seems to be playing defense on "You didn't build that" issue.  

    •  No. Bane was phase 1. (9+ / 0-)

      It was always part of a multipronged strategy.

      OFA is playing defense on the other issue 'cos they need to be playing defense on it.  Romney's trying to gain traction on it, and it needs to be nipped in the bud.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 06:46:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They were always going to put out a positive ad (12+ / 0-)

      for the Olympic stretch, no matter what else is going on.

    •  Team Obama (9+ / 0-)

      isn't afraid of defense. Its first ads of the cycle were parries of Solyndra ads from third-party groups. Leads me to believe they don't wait to defend themselves against potentially damaging lines of attack. I like it--shows strength.

      As for Bain, it will be the gift that keeps on giving. And playing it at full throttle for weeks and months on end would only dilute its effectiveness. I think they've got a very nice balance: move in hard, ease up, move in again, ease up, etc. That way, the public doesn't get inured to it.

      My sense is they'll time the next attack to another Bain or tax-related discovery by journalists. Those are sure to come before too long.

    •  No (23+ / 0-)

      but your persistent harping on the proposition that the Bain attacks aren't working isn't working.  You should consider retooling your message.  Only you could think running an issue based contrast ad like this is a sign of weakness.  It is a very confident ad, and all part of the plan.  At the beginning of the month, I read that Obama was planning 30 second spots for the first three weeks of July and 60 second spots for the last.  They have probably been planning to run this ad since at least the beginning of this month.

      The campaign doesn't go around jumping at its own shadow and making sudden dramatic adjustments.  They are executing a game plan and there is no sign they have been thrown off of it by anything Romney has done.  In fact it is the opposite.  Romney was thrown off of his economic message and forced to run a bunch of lackluster ads generically calling the President a liar because of the resonance of the Bain ads which, and I cannot say this enough, the Romney campaign has acknowledged.  Yet you refuse to believe it every day.

      It is also a really good ad.  Presidential and substantive.  Romney could not pull off an ad like this.  He won't even try.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:56:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ^^^spiderdem's comment here...... (5+ / 0-)

        ......is SO MUCH WIN!!!  :-)

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:33:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and I also love your sig! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah

        Didn't notice it until just now...you changed it recently maybe?

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:35:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes I realized (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          sadly I was no longer 35. Also no longer in FL-11 although still mercifully in Castor's district, so I changed.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 03:46:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You don't think he undercuts the Bain attacks (0+ / 0-)

        with his "Sometimes politics can seem very small..." line?  It seems to me he's trying to come off as above it all after he's been signing off on the "Firms" and other like ads the last couple of weeks.  

        Or politics is only small when Romney is doing it?

        It seems to me that the pol on the losing end of the attack ad narrative of the moment calls for a return to talking about the serious issues.  Romney camp is building a whole campaign around "You didn't build that" and this seems to be Pres Obama's "Hey let's talk about the economy now" moment.  

        •  If Romney is building a (8+ / 0-)

          whole campaign around "didn't build that", then he's f**ked.

          I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

          by rennert on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:05:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Bain is the main argument for Romney (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bridav58, pollbuster, Supavash, askew

          to be president. I dont see how criticizing his tenure there is small.

        •  Absolutely not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rennert

          campaigns that are on the ropes don't run issue based contrast ads.  They go hard negative, like Romney did in running ads that generically call the president a liar.

          Once again, your assumption that this is an off-the-cuff response to something Romney is doing is misinformed.  They have been building up to this ad in their stump speech rhetoric for weeks.

          You have been looking for an excuse to validate your theory against the Bain attacks for months.  The very fact that these ads have been running for months should tell you all you need to know about whether they are working.  Then the Romney campaign admits they are working and you still don't believe it.  There is no shaking you.

          And please Romney make your campaign about four words taken out of context.  That, Jacoby, is the kind of reactive small ball that comes out of a campaign flailing for a message.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 04:00:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  "It isn't working" (0+ / 0-)

            I've noticed something interesting I think. Look at the content of the ads on each side. Obama's are all about things Romney did in the past and how that impacts on policy. Romney's ads however are all about taking Obama's words wildly out of context to make some general point about the economy. Eye of the beholder perhaps but it suggests to me that one campaign has a clear long term plan and the other is grasping for issues and playing to the news cycle. Note how Obama hasn't exploited the numerous Romney gaffes in paid media much at all. Indeed, it could be argued Romney's strategy "isn't working" because he is still losing. Again, neither can pull away because of their own weaknesses.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 05:06:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              Clearly both have a long term plan, but Romney was thrown off it for a spell by the Bain attacks.  I have not detected anything suggesting the Obama campaign adjusting their long term plan in response to anything Romney has done.  My sense is that neither side expects to pull away before the convention, but Romney has had to do some damage control recently, which is nice.

              Romney's long term plan is to run economic attacks like the current RNC "It's OK to make a change" ad, which is excellent and backed by a lot of money.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 05:29:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  No. You keep asking about the Bain effect. This (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      v2aggie2, itskevin, pollbuster, EcosseNJ

      has already been covered days ago, and yes they are working.

      If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

      by DoctorWho on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:38:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sophisticated campaigns never stay ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Drdemocrat

      on the same topic for more than a couple weeks. They sometimes return later, but they move from subject to subject around a general theme (which can roughly be described in this case as "Romney's the wrong guy for this time and these challenges"). That's how the ad guys tell campaigns to roll, as it maximizes impact. It tends to give the impression to people that they're hearing the same thing from multiple sources, which makes it credible. If they ran the same exact message over and over, its return diminishes very fast.

      So, no.

    •  Bain ads are working in swing states (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Mokurai

      We know this because American Crossroads are counteracting them with $9 million worth of advertisement and they stated they are doing this because they ARE working.

      This USA/Today poll is a national poll so it is not stating what is happening in battleground states.

      Gallup itself has said a few weeks ago that the Bain attacks are working in battleground states.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:27:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i think its a new time (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    v2aggie2

    so not sure if old paradigms about approval ratings and whatnot hold anymore.

  •  Coin flip? COIN FLIP??? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GrumpyOldGeek, LordMike

    Just wonderful.  Not even trying to float the obligatory "yeah but state polls" tonight?  

    My God does this blow.  And there's no mystery on the Gallup approval:

    "You didn't build that."

    It was a stupid thing to say even if that's completely not what he meant.  Obama needs his A-plus game every damn day because the other side will twist and maul his every word.  And half of the voters are so freaking stupid they'll believe it.

    All the Bain and tax returns stuff -- and hey, anyone heard anything on it lately?  Me neither.  And we get a coin flip.

    •  I keep reminding myself: "It's early" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Zack from the SFV

      The coin flip idea sucks big time anyway.

      Yet there's still plenty of dirt avalable for ads that work.

      Seconds ago, here in NH, the "Romney is not the solution. He's the problem" ad just ran. I can attest to the fact that these ads are working.

      Bain and the tax returns ads will be around for a while. They're working.

      But it's early.

      "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

      by GrumpyOldGeek on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 08:53:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It was a clunky message when Warren was (0+ / 0-)

      spouting it.  I don't know who thought it was a winning argument to lure over swing state voters.  

      It plays perfectly into the storyline the GOP has been pushing for near four years now - Obama is a bad for business socialist who doesn't understand the American economy.  Everybody believes they are rugged individualists who pulled themselves up by their boot straps - even if it's all bull shit. It's a deep seeded construct that folks will push back hard against when challenged on it not being true.  

      The best ad of the cycle was the "Coffins" ad by Priorities USA and then the NewtPAC Bain attack movie - both used the white working class folks talking to the camera about how mean and evil Bain and Mitt were.  Now Romney has the push back, using the same type of folks saying how wrong and out of touch Pres Obama is.  

      It was a gift to the Romney campaign.  Before it they were rolling out "he's a crony capitalist" and "he smoked weed and took cocaine" attacks.  Now they have a solid attack storyline that they will sell for the next 3.5 months.

      Bain and the tax issue is already yesterdays news.  

    •  It's going to be frustrating (0+ / 0-)

      because no one on this planet or any other is on his or her A-plus game every day. And you're right, in this particular post-truth campaign, any little slip will be twisted out of context. But it doesn't even have to be a slip or a screw-up that Romney's team will somehow twist into some filthy lying ad; they'll fuck with completely innocuous, straightforward words.

      Anyway, none of that changes the fact that Obama's going to stumble over his words on occasion during this endless campaign, and we really can't expect him not to, because he's not the robot in this campaign. (And I acknowledge the irony that the robot in this campaign constantly flubs, fumbles, and otherwise makes a fool of himself and suffers not a bit for it.) Something like this is going to happen again.

      The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

      by jamfan on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:07:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Go to bed guys (9+ / 0-)

      It's been a long day of concern trolling. There are still plenty of days left. Gotta pace yourselves.

      In case you're wondering why I'm sleeping well tonight, take a look at Romney's approval rating. There. Sleep tight!

    •  Day to day (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai

      The day to day ups and downs or in this case the lack of either is tedious. As is much of the commentary in relation to that. But campaigns aren't run day to day. I don't understand why people can't understand that.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:59:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not sure I understand your point (0+ / 0-)

    Regarding the Ras poll for PA- Sen, and how it reflects on the recent Presidential poll.

    While +11 is the worst poll result I see for Casey, it isn't that far out of line.  The nearest poll in time (from WAA) is +14, well within the margin of error.  Looking back a couple of months to the last PPP poll (over two months ago), it was only Casey +16.  More tellingly, Casey had the exact same support level (49); Smith's gain of five points (as some voters hear of him for probably the first time) isn't really that unexpected, as the Republican voters come home.  (And of course, Ras is likely voters, PPP is registered voters, and, finally, Ras is Ras).

    I'd suggest the Ras poll has pretty much the same credibility as it did before the Senate numbers came out.

    The best pizza comes from New York.

    by JakeC on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:19:23 PM PDT

    •  The Ras senate polls have basically (0+ / 0-)

      been garbage, and that's putting it mildly. In almost every state they've polled, there seems to a lean of +8 to +10 for the republican. What their senate polls mainly do is pull up totals for the GOP candidate when polling is averaged.

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:50:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My current theory (worth about 0...) (0+ / 0-)

    ....is that, because the state of the country is precarious anytime Obama suffers at all (build that puffery) it affects his numbers.

  •  The Firms Ad aired in Georgia (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, askew

    I was REALLY surprised last night to see The Firms ad here in Georgia.  I thought they were only playing it in swing states, and as far as I know, Georgia is far, far from a swing state, but red all the way.  Am I missing something here?

  •  Reuters poll: Bain/taxes attack hurting Romney (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.reuters.com/...

    "With three-quarters of registered voters saying they've heard at least a little about these issues, I would say the Obama campaign has been successful in raising them to the national conscience," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

    After weeks of accusations from Obama and his allies that Romney cut U.S. jobs and sent them overseas while he headed Bain, 36 percent of registered voters said the issue had made them see Romney less favorably, compared to 18 percent who said they were now more favorable toward the former governor of Massachusetts.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:51:45 AM PDT

  •  gigkash (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    R30A

    It is very good report.

    gigkash

  •  gigkash (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    R30A

    It is very good.

    gigkash
    http://www.gigkash.com/...

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