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Leading Off:

HI-Sen: Even though Alaska is reliably Republican and Hawaii is deep blue, the two states' congressional delegations have long been tight, in part because their sizable native populations share similar concerns. Democrat Sen. Dan Inouye had a famously close relationship with the late Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, and now it looks like GOP Rep. Don Young is forging a similar bond with Hawaii Rep. Mazie Hirono. In a rare cross-party move, Young just endorsed Hirono in her bid for the Senate and even created a pretty funny 90-second web video with her.

Meanwhile, the labor-backed Working Families for Hawaii is spending $34K on radio ads to attack Hirono's Democratic primary rival, Ed Case. (Earlier in the month, they spent a similar amount, also on radio.) But Case is somehow managing to attract outside help, in this case from the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly, which is the school's faculty union. They're airing this almost content-free ad whose main theme seems to be that whoever fills this seat will be senator-for-life, so we should send Case back to Washington. The buy is small—only about $17K—which is actually less than the $24K they spent to produce it! (They're also sending out about $20K worth of mailers.)

Senate:

CT-Sen: Is Susan Bysiewicz subscribing to the "there's no such thing as bad press" school of thought? Even though she was stone-cold busted for screwing up Rep. Chris Murphy (her primary opponent) with ex-Rep. Scott Murphy (of New York) in her new attack ad, she's not only refusing to take it down, she won't even modify it. Bysiewicz herself even acknowledged that "the ad is incorrect." Maybe, speculates my Daily Kos Elections colleague Steve Singiser, she's crazy ... like a fox. Every article about this debacle gives her another chance to talk about how much "Wall Street money" Murphy's supposedly taken. It still won't work, though.

FL-Sen: The DSCC is reserving $3.2 million in TV airtime for the final month of the campaign, to help Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (if he winds up needing it).

MI-Sen: Clark Durant has struggled to gain traction in the GOP primary against ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and with election day just a few weeks away, he's running out of time. But he's getting a late boost from two different quarters. First as an endorsement from the conservative third-party group FreedomWorks, though it remains to be seen if they'll spend anything on his behalf. However, another group, the mysterious Prosperity for Michigan (perhaps related to Americans for Prosperity?), is jumping in with some legit coin for TV ads, $400K in total (see here and here). It's a compare and contrast spot: Hoekstra voted to raise the debt ceiling, etc., while Durant will "stop Obamacare."

Durant also has a new ad of his own, hitting almost identical themes (Hoekstra loves earmarks, voted for TARP). Hoekstra, meanwhile, is still pretending like he doesn't have a primary fight on his hands—sort of. In his latest TV commercial, he says he "fought the powerful Teamsters union when they tried to take advantage of Michigan workers," then goes on to attack Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow over her support for the Affordable Care Act. But while he superficially has his eye on the general election, these sound a lot more like the kind of themes you'd hit if you were trying to win a Republican nomination.

MO-Sen: Businessman John Brunner is out with two new ads. One responds to Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill's attempts to meddle in the GOP primary, saying it's proof that "they know I'll defeat Claire McCaskill." A bridge too far, but he's definitely right that Democrats would prefer to face Todd Akin rather than himself. Speaking of Akin, he's the target of Brunner's second spot, which goes after him for being an all-too-eager earmarker. Brunner's attack is more specific than the usual Republican hollering about pork barrel spending, though: He cites reports that one earmark in particular that Akin secured could directly benefit him financially (it's for a road in an area where Akin owns property). Not a bad hit.

Brunner's taking some lumps of his own, though. Sarah Steelman takes a whack at her fellow Republican in a new ad, slamming him over a news report in which Brunner apparently couldn't name a single federal program he'd like to cut. The second half is positive, with Steelman saying that as state treasurer, she "took on Wall Street bankers who were investing Missouri tax dollars with terrorists"! That somewhat over-heated claim is a reference to this effort to get pension funds to divest from companies which do business with countries like Iran, not guys buying Osama bin Laden futures.

Meanwhile, Steelman's getting some outside help from the Tea Party Express (via their "Our Country Deserves Better" PAC), in the form of $45K worth of TV ads. (The spot is not on the organization's YouTube account.) TPX, which was a rambunctious if griftery force last cycle, has spend very little this time around. A good sign of the group's wane: OCDB's own website is kaput!

ND-Sen: Majority PAC came out with three new ads on Tuesday; this one slams GOP Rep. Rick Berg for his votes in favor of the Ryan budget which would "essentially end Medicare." The spot also gets in a dig at Berg for hiding behind his mom as a defense to these charges (as he did in this ad). Also, the American College of Radiology is spending $45K on web ads supporting Berg, though I can't really say why he holds any special appeal for them.

OH-Sen: Hah, I totally love this new ad from Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, perhaps because of his enthusiasm more than anything else. Like a particularly patriotic salesman in an auto show-room, Brown takes us on a tour of the Chevy Cruze four-door sedan, pointing out each city in Ohio where key components are made. That's his hook for explaining: "I'm proud to have led the fight to pass the auto rescue package, helping to protect more than 800,000 Ohio jobs."

TX-Sen: Now we're cooking with gas. With a week left to go before the Texas Senate GOP runoff, various third-party groups have ramped up their spending. Sen. Jim DeMint's new super PAC, "Senate Conservatives Action," is reportedly shelling out $500K on this frenetically-edited ad on behalf of Ted Cruz which invokes Ronald Reagan and "freedom." The Club for Growth is spending a similar amount, some $575K, to re-up their existing ads. And finally, the Tea Party Express is coughing up a tiny $60K to air this spot hitting the usual right-wing nostrums ("proven conservative," "repeal Obamacare").

In the pro-David Dewhurst camp, the Texas Conservatives Fund is launching this new ad which packs quite the punch. It hits the same theme as their prior spot, Cruz's representation (in a civil matter regarding who should pay damages stemming from the scandal) of the guy who bribed Pennsylvania judges to send kids to his for-profit juvenile detention facilities. This time, though, the mom of one of the victims says Cruz "should be ashamed of himself" and says her son committed suicide after his wrongful incarceration. This ad is backed by a pretty decent $815K buy—but just always bear in mind how big Texas is.

VA-Sen: In an over-the-top spot for Republican George Allen, a melodramatic announcer invokes the specter of $500 billion in automatic defense cuts which may happen as a result of last year's debt ceiling agreement. "A storm is coming," warns the narrator, which could decimate Virginia jobs ... so vote George Allen!

Meanwhile, Majority PAC has a new ad out hitting Allen and fluffing Tim Kaine, and as with their spot from May, once again, it almost sounds like they're painting Kaine as the stereotypical Republican (look at all the spending he cut!) and Allen as the dastardly Democrat (why, he supported earmarks for "Alaskan berry research"!). I personally find these "cherry-pick stupid-sounding earmarks" ads to be extremely groany and I really have to wonder whether they resonate. After all, they were John McCain's stock-in-trade, and they got him bupkes in 2008. But if Majority PAC's polling says that this kind of shtick will win votes, then I guess we'll just have to live with it.

WI-Sen: I think I like this new Majority PAC ad, their third of three, the best. It attacks the two Republican co-frontrunners, Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson. In going after Hovde, the text on street signs from around the state all morph into the words "Wall St."; the announcer attacks him as a "D.C. fund manager whose invested millions in bailout-funded banks involved in fraudulent loans" and says he'll "be representing just one street." The same visual trick is used in the second half to ding Thompson as a lobbyist who "raked in millions on K Street." I guess this means Democrats are hoping they can meddle sufficiently in the GOP primary to get Mark Neumann nominated?

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is out with his first ad of his reelection campaign, a slow-moving minute-long spot. The first half is mostly biographical in nature (small-town roots, yay), while in the second part, he rather predictably talks about all his efforts at bipartisanship. If you've followed Nixon's career at all, these are exactly the kind of messages you'd expect.

WA-Gov: Here's an unexpected but welcome development in the Washington gubernatorial race: the first independent public poll in over a year with a lead for Democratic ex-Rep. Jay Inslee. And not just a dinky lead, but a seven-point one: 43-36 over GOP AG Rob McKenna, courtesy of Elway Research. Click through for our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

Inslee is also out with a new ad, just a day after McKenna released his first. Interestingly, even though Inslee is of course running for state-level office, he touts his congressional votes against the bailout and against the Iraq war. And in the category of "odd job I once held to put myself through college" (a common campaign trope), Inslee says he drove a bulldozer! That's a new one on me. (David Jarman & David Nir)

House:

AZ-06: That new super PAC National Horizon, which just deployed an ad designed to prop up GOPer Matt Salmon in AZ-05, apparently also has a spot ready to go in AZ-06. The ad consists of outright mockery of another Republican, Rep. Ben Quayle, with a narrator calling him a "squire who believed he was a prince" as pages from a fairytale-style book flip across the screen. It mentions his alleged carpetbagging and his work for the notorious website Dirty Scottsdale.

FL-16: That didn't take long: Democrat Keith Fitzgerald's campaign hopped into the field with a poll of their own, the very same day that GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan released an internal showing him up 54-32. Needless to say, Fitz's survey, from PPP, shows a very different picture, with ol' Vern leading by a much smaller 44-36 margin. As you'd expect, Fitzgerald is largely unknown, but his favorables are positive (22-11), while Buchanan struggles at the line of mediocrity (40-37). The memo also notes that Romney leads Obama 49-44 in this sample, which is actually two points redder than the 2008 results.

GA-09: The air wars in Georgia's brand-new (and very red) 9th District are starting late—the GOP primary is next week—but boy is state Rep. Doug Collins unloading hard on radio host Martha Zoller in the first TV ad of the race. It helps when your opponent hosts a talk radio show and has years of public comments to draw from; it helps even more when she's said things like "Ronald Reagan was the problem with America" and Barack Obama "is a great guy." Zoller has almost no cash-on-hand, so unless she made a previous reservation, she may not be able to get on the air in response. Sort of ironic, given her professional background.

P.S. A group called Georgia Freedom PAC is also spending $12K on radio ads on behalf of Collins.

HI-02: EMILY's List is running an ad on behalf of Honolulu city councilor Tulsi Gabbard, which emphasizes her military service. The buy is for $129K. And VoteVets, a group which previously ran what appeared to be a successful spot for Gabbard, is tossing in $32K on mailers. The University of Hawaii faculty union is also getting involved in this race (see HI-Sen item above). They're spending $14K on radio ads for former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann.

IA-04: House Majority PAC is out with a new ad in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, where former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack is attempting to unseat GOP Rep. Steve King. The spot features a teacher who praises Vilsack for "working with Republicans and Democrats" to secure education funding.

MN-08: In Tarryl Clark's fourth TV spot, one theme she hits is very common to a lot of Democratic advertising: corporations which "ship jobs overseas." (She's against it!)

NY-01: Here's another new House poll, from Garin-Hart-Yang, courtesy the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC. They find Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop bashing Randy Altschuler (the man he ultra-narrowly defeated in 2010) by a 56-32 margin. (The survey also has Obama up 49-44 over Romney; according to our calculations, Obama won the slightly redrawn 1st CD 51-48.) These topline numbers are fairly similar to a Bishop internal released in April that had the incumbent in front 53-36. Altschuler never put out contradictory results.

OH-16: You might remember the story from a few months ago about sketchy donations to Republican Rep. Jim Renacci (who's in one of the nation's tightest House races, in a redistricting-forced rumble with Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton); he's been under fire for not returning $100K in donations that had all the appearances of all originating from Canton-area direct-marketing businessman Benjamin Suarez yet seem to have been funneled through various of his employees, none of whom had any previous history of making max-out contributions.

Renacci had previously said that he would wait on the outcome of an FEC probe before returning the funds, but apparently the issue has started weighing on him, as he reversed course and gave up the money. True to form, Renacci tried to shift the blame for the damage done by the shady contributions to his Democratic opponent:

Toward the end of his seven-paragraph missive, which accused Sutton of "gutter politics," Renacci wrote that he gave back the money sooner than planned to "take that tool from your hands" and deprive her of a campaign issue.

"Your time [has] run out, the excuses are all gone, and you owe it to the people of this district to finally run on your record and the issues facing our community," Renacci wrote in the letter, which his aides distributed as a news release.

(David Jarman)

TN-06: I'm guessing tea partier Lou Ann Zelenik must have a fairy godmother: Just days after a mysterious super PAC spent $45K on TV ads going after her GOP primary opponent, Rep. Diane Black, another group—with the doofy name of "Citizens 4 Ethics in Government"—is also chipping in. C4EG is forking out about $140K (see here and here). This organization, by the way, is run by Zelenik's former fundraising chair, so Black's camp is predictably fuming about illegal coordination.

But Black isn't without some help of her own: The Radiologists are spending $50K on, well, radio ads on her behalf.

TX-23: If the LCV is planning to make a big, last-minute splash, time is running out. The group just threw down another $18K (this time on robocalls dinging ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez), but the Democratic runoff is just a week away, and so far, the League has not spent nearly as much to help state Rep. Pete Gallego as it did before the primary.

WA-01: Laura Ruderman's mom's Super PAC, Progress for Washington, keeps chugging away, with another $21K in mailers. This time, it appears as though they might be positive flyers touting Ruderman in the Democratic primary. Can you imagine? "My daughter would make the best member of Congress in the whole wide world!"

WI-02: The negativity in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Tammy Baldwin has just spilled over on to the airwaves. Kelda Roys's new spot accuses fellow state Rep. Mark Pocan of having "caved in and voted with Scott Walker to throw millions of dollars in tax giveaways to big corporations." Roys explains the votes she's referring to here; Pocan, of course, has hotly disputed her characterizations. However, it remains to be seen whether he'll respond in kind on the airwaves. (Incidentally, he did release a second ad last week, touting his work to pass a bill called the Compassionate Care for Rape Victims Act.)

Other Races:

VA-AG: We've got our first official Democratic contender in 2013's state attorney general race in Virginia (a position which can be an important stepping stone to governor there). It's state Sen. Mark Herring from Loudon County (though the recently-defeated former state House minority leader Wade Armstrong is also scoping out the race). One GOPer, Del. Robert Bell (whose name you might remember from the early shortlist of 2010 VA-05 contenders) is already in. (David Jarman)

WI-St. Sen: This is a developing story that is a real "WTF?" moment in the tumultuous world of Wisconsin politics. State Sen. Tim Cullen, in his second tour of duty in the chamber, has bolted the Democratic caucus. Cullen's decision seems to have originated in his pique over not being offered a plum committee chairmanship (apparently, the small business and tourism committee wasn't good enough for him).

However, and this is important: Cullen also said he has not yet decided to quit the party altogether, and added that for purposes of assessing who is in the majority, he should still count as a Democrat. That second pronouncement, if it stands, means Cullen would not imperil Team Blue's newly won control over the chamber.

Cullen has a bit of past as it relates to his own caucus: He pooh-poohed partisanship when he elected not to run for governor in February, and penned a paean to post-partisanship in an op-ed piece just two weeks ago. Of course, as commenter Gpack3 notes: "Cullen is in a very blue district and is eligible for recall...." Just sayin'! (Steve Singiser & David Nir)

Grab Bag:

Iowa: PPP's new batch of Iowa miscellany, like the rest of the poll, doesn't exactly contain great news for Democrats. Sen. Tom Harkin (who is up for re-election in 2014) has seen his approval has slip from 45-39 to 42-41. Of more immediate concern, Republicans have now taken the lead on the generic legislative ballot, 44-42; back in May, Democrats were on top 44-39.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 07:48 AM PDT.

Also republished by Hirono for Senate.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Oops (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vatexia, KingofSpades, Larsstephens

    Romney had an unforced error. Not a major one. And it is fairly easy to explain away as a poor choice of words. But an error none the less.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...

    •  Romney arrived in London (9+ / 0-)

      today and is meeting with PM David Cameron. Kind of an interesting day for that. Economic data showed that British economy contracted by a larger amount than expected in the second quarter, the third straight quarter of contraction.

      For all the talk of Obama wanting the country to be like Europe, it's Romney that wants to implement the austerity policies that Conservatives in the UK enacted when they won in 2010.

      •  Cameron and Romney will get along swimmingly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Both private school Posh boys.  It will be interesting to see how the UK press treats Romney.

      •  I've long thought this needs to be part of... (0+ / 0-)

        ...Obama's campaign strategy to somehow educate voters on what's happening in countries implementing the very austerity the GOP wants here.

        And it does, indeed, serve a secondary effect of turning Mitt's "foreigner" attack against him.

        Maybe it's too heavy a lift for a campaign to ordinary American voters to try to explain what's happening overseas and how that informs what Romney and his party will do to them here.

        But other than being harder to boil down to easily-absorbed messaging than what they're already doing, it's a perfect logic that otherwise fits OFA's overall message.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:11:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't seem unforced to me n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew
    •  Also, not defending Romney here (0+ / 0-)

      but I dont know that it will be a big deal given that it came from an anonymous adviser. It's sort of like anonymous Obama aides  calling Romney "weird." That was somehow interpreted as Obama maybe considering using Mormonism as an issue.

      Of course, David Axelrod came out pretty strongly against that when it was published. So if Romney were to somehow agree with the "Angelo-Saxon" interpretation, then I think it would be an issue.

  •  Wow, Obama up BIG in MI (13+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    TAKE THAT bad pollsters!

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor! * None of my personal comments posted here reflect the campaign or campaign positions of Joe Donnelly for Indiana in any way.

    by IndyLiberal on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 07:53:34 AM PDT

    •  Michigan: Obama 53 Romney 39 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, itskevin, SoCalLiberal, askew
    •  Pennsylvania: Obama 49 Romney 43 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, KingTag, SoCalLiberal

      I would have liked to see that margin wider.

      •  Yeah and what is up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, atdnext, bythesea

        With the Condi Rice VP poll changes?  I can't imagine she would change the race THAT much.

        27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor! * None of my personal comments posted here reflect the campaign or campaign positions of Joe Donnelly for Indiana in any way.

        by IndyLiberal on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:00:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She wouldn't (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, bythesea, bumiputera, askew

          but I am not surprised polls show that, people's uninformed reaction to her is positive.

        •  A new trend in PPP polling? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, bythesea, itskevin

          Now VP choices seem to move the numbers greatly. I feel like PPP, and most polls, didnt used to show that. Which makes sense.

          I dont think the VP choices really move numbers.

          •  Generally, I agree (0+ / 0-)

            But Rice is one of the rare exceptions where she is very well known.

            Still, Romney won't pick a pro-choice candidate. Period.

            •  Well known, but in a nostalgia haze. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingTag

              Even Bush polls favorably now, or close to it.  I suspect that a few ads reminding folks of the totality of the Bush years, and Rice served all 8 years, would bring her polling back to earth.  You basically make her the posterchild of the Bush Foreign Policy and have her own it and defend it.  

            •  Rice is not well-known at all (0+ / 0-)

              Ordinary voters vaguely remember her name......maybe.

              They can't place her, who she was.  They might remember she was in the Bush Administration, they might remember she had something to do wtih foreign policy.

              And therein lies the rub......the GOP ultimately can be only hurt by associating itself with Bush's foreign policy.

              Beyond that, virtually no one knows anything at all about Condi Rice.

              People like her are little-known while in office and once out, forgotten immediately by everyone but political junkies, policy wonks, and journalists.

              jj is right, she's not going to move numbers in real life were she picked.

              And you're right that her being pro-choice is fatal.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:17:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Some might, at least initially. (0+ / 0-)

            I just don't see Rice doing it anywhere, and certainly not in Pennsylvania, a state she has no connection to.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:25:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  In the crosstabs (0+ / 0-)

        Romney is pulling 16% of the African-American vote in Pennsylvania.  No way that happens.

        27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor! * None of my personal comments posted here reflect the campaign or campaign positions of Joe Donnelly for Indiana in any way.

        by IndyLiberal on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:24:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Polling in Michigan has been all over the map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27

      As much as I would like to take this at face value, it is impossible to tell what is going on in Michigan with how polls have been.

      •  I kind of agree. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Byblis

        I'm more tempted to trust PPP, since most if not all of the other pollsters are Who Dats, but the margin does seem a little high.

        Then again, it's not receiving much attention at all, even from outside groups. That's gotta be the biggest tell of all.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:28:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed re: outside expenditures (0+ / 0-)

          If Michigan really was close, both campaigns, along with groups like Majority PAC and Crossroads GPS would be moneybombing the state just like they are here in Ohio - and other states like Florida, Virginia, Iowa, etc.

      •  MI (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Byblis

        I think Obama's clearly ahead by a fair amount. Most of those earlier polls that showed a close race had bad samples with too many old people, etc. Now Ras has him up 6 which suggests he's up between 6 and 16, PPP has him up 14 which to me suggests he's up between 8 and 18 as PPP seems to have a bit of Dem lean this cycle. I think if the election were this week he'd win by 10-12.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:51:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  My Guess Is Somewhere In Between..... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blueonyx, aamail6

        ...yesterday's Rasmussen poll and today's PPP poll is where the reality is.  Obama in the 9-10-point range is where my gut says the race is.

      •  Au contraire, it's easy to see Obama is up BIG (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        The "tiebreaker" between polls is simply campaign activity.  How are the campaigns acting?

        Both sides, including their independent expenditure support groups, are acting like Michigan is safe Obama.

        I pointed out in another comment today that only Crossroads has advertised at all in Michigan in July, and spent less than $500K the previous couple weeks.  Before that, there were no TV ad buys in Michigan for about 3 weeks.  Neither campaign, no party committee, and no other superpac or other independent expenditure group has spent a dime on ads there in June or July.

        And there's no sign of Romney or his state or national allies doing anything else to ramp up campaigning in Michigan.

        It's getting late.  In a modern Presidential campaign, by late July you've got to have a good voter contact system (paid and earned media and field) in place and up and running to compete seriously in a closely-contested state.  If you're not doing that in a particular state, it's because either you can't (due to money or lack of activist and insititutional support), or you know the state is not competitive.

        Romney knows Michigan isn't competitive, he isn't going to stay close there, at least not without a great opportunity cost that would risk losing another battleground that is lower-hanging fruit than Michigan.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:24:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I bet... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      we'll see more polling for those same companies that showed a tied race in June.  EPIC-MRA usually releases polls on Thursdays so we'll probably get a poll from them tomorrow or next Thursday.  

    •  saw a poll earlier said Romney up 1 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingTag

      Some no name pollster had it a dead heat but even Ras had Obama up 6. The media is trying to make Mi a toss up, not happening.

    •  Boom goes the dynamite (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, aamail6
  •  Fuck Obama (0+ / 0-)

    That's what a friend at work said to me the other day, as the presidential campaign came up in a conversation. He describes himself as a fiscal conservative but a social liberal and says he voted for Obama in 2004. When I responded sarcastically about voting for Romney, he said something like "I don't think I'm voting for him, either. He says anything and I just don't trust him."

    Now, this is only one person, and we both live in New York, so it's not as if this is a crucial vote he's missing. Still, if a lot of people around the country feel the same way as my friend--and, even if there's no polling to back it up, I bet they do--he's in some trouble.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 07:55:44 AM PDT

    •  He voted in the IL Senate election in 2004? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, askew

      He would have had to.

    •  Trying to forecast brad voting universe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      trends based on one anecdotal encounter with a 2008 Obama voter strikes me as a fool's errand.

      Unapologetic Obama supporter.

      by Red Sox on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:01:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *broad, not brad (0+ / 0-)

        Unapologetic Obama supporter.

        by Red Sox on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:04:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No doubt you are right. (0+ / 0-)

        I realize there are...significant limitations to using this as an indicator. That said, my boss has said similar things, and he was a McCain voter in 2008.

        Again, these are only two people, and it's not like we live in Ohio or Virginia, but these are people that Romney should easily be winning were he in a good position. The fact that he isn't, and the likelihood of there being more, isn't a good sign for him.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:17:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a Common Sentiment..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....my evangelical friend from Minnesota who is a Palin admirer said he might end up voting Obama because he dislikes Romney so much.  I doubt he will in the end, but it's another example underscoring how disliked Romney is.

          •  Yeah, I think that's it. (0+ / 0-)

            In the end, Obama doesn't need all of these people to win. And even if he did, why aren't they supporting Romney now? It's possible they will on election day, but you'd think we'd see more and more coalescing of the coalition at this point.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 09:27:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know how Nixon won...... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer

              No one I know voted for him!

              Those were the famous words whose speaker I don't remember.

              But that's the lesson of what anecdotes are worth.

              I met a guy like your co-worker in New York when canvassing my neigbhorhood just the other day.  He voted for Obama last time but dislikes both him and Romney now.  I honestly don't know how the guy will vote, after a long talk with him where I did manage to sell some tidbits of information in Obama's favor.  But I'd say he really is right on the line, 50-50.

              I met a second guy who said he hates both and didn't want to talk about it with me.

              Times are tough, people aren't happy, they're going to gripe.  It doesn't mean a damn thing for Obama's chances.  Just trust the polls.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:40:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Some people do... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, SoCalLiberal, sapelcovits

      But others feel a different way. My cousin and her best friend are registered Republicans. One voted for Obama in 2008, while the other voted for McCain. Both consider themselves moderate, and both have had plenty of "issues" with President Obama in the last 3 years. About 3 months ago, both admitted they were uncomfortable with Mitt Romney and thought he was unfair in blaming all our economic woes on Obama.

      The point of this? Either there will be all sorts of wild crossover voting happening this fall, or our anecdotal snapshots don't tell us the full story when we isolate them.

    •  I doubt it (0+ / 0-)

      I know a lot of people who say they are down on Obama and won't vote for him but none of them will vote for Romney. Anyway they all live in safe Obama states so it really won;t matter.

  •  IN-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    Donnelly is up with his newest ad.
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Meh. He has the obnoxious shouting guy again, it worked ok the first time, he needs to give it up though. Message is good, but I wish he would make it clearer how Mourdock tried to destroy the jobs.

    It gives more ethos to the cause if you ask me, than just saying he fought tooth and nail to destroy them. Because he did, but most voters do not know the back story and may think Donnelly is just being overly negative.

    Cut out some, not all, of the I'm bipartisan and I know it crap out, and better explain that Mourdock spent millions of our taxpayer money on a New York lobbying firm to oppose saving the auto industry. I think they could find time in this spot, surely.

    •  Still (0+ / 0-)

      Joe is so nice in this ad.  He just seems so likeable.  I am totally and utterly biased, however.  He is still increasing name rec. and getting on a good footing with voters.  There are still around 100 days left to detail why Mourdock is such a horrible choice for voters.

      27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor! * None of my personal comments posted here reflect the campaign or campaign positions of Joe Donnelly for Indiana in any way.

      by IndyLiberal on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:08:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't rest on that. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        Rather, get going NOW on defining Mourdock.

        Because you're new here, I guess I have to "initiate" you with one of my crazy NV-Sen 2010 stories. Right after that wacky GOP primary, some polls had Sharrrrrrrrrrrron Angle ahead of Harry Reid and the Beltway pundits were already measuring Angle's new office drapes. Yet while they were doing that, Reid immediately started airing tons of negative anti-Angle ads. And while he was doing that, the coordinated Campaign was busy reinforcing those ads as we were dialing nonpartisans, wavering Dems, and even some Republicans.

        Remember what ended up happening here that fall?

        And btw, this is also why I'm heartened by Obama hitting Romney so hard on Bain now. You need to define the opponent before the opponent starts defining you and him/herself!

      •  He does come off nice (0+ / 0-)

        And yes he needs to positively define himself. I just personally, and this is just me, think this ad could have been better produced. Slightly better explain his lawsuit against the auto bailout. Not turn it into a full on negative ad. But it just wasn't clear in my view. And the shouting guy, well I'm not sure they should keep that going honestly.

        •  That's a reasonable criticism. (0+ / 0-)

          I wonder if he would be wise to highlight specific places affected by the bail out--Kokomo, for instance--with campaign stops and then begin to pound him with specific numbers.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 09:52:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Donnelly has so much serious stuff to attack... (0+ / 0-)

      Why is he going the cutesy ad route?  Is that the go-to direction for Dems in reddish states?  Recent examples off the top of my head is Blanche Lincoln and McAdams both did it in 2010 and Donnelly and Heitkamp have gone there now this cycle.  I'm sure there are more examples.  

      •  He's going this route because (0+ / 0-)

        he needs to build up his name recognition. He needs to do so in a positive manner. Once he hits a certain point, I'm sure the attack ads will begin.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:28:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm sure he will (0+ / 0-)

        The first ad did somewhat. http://www.youtube.com/...  

        I think he is doing the Pence playbook of trying to make voters view him positively first. He is actually talking about issues though, instead of Pence's ads which make me think I am watching a commercial for eHarmony.

        •  Talk about something that would have (0+ / 0-)

          one running for the hills!

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 09:28:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Is there a plan to all of this? (0+ / 0-)

      It's easy enough to go negative from the beginning, but the risk is that you drag yourself down along with your opponent. Off the top of my head, I am not sure what Donnelley's favorability ratings are, but I can see the logic in using this ad as a warm up of sorts before really going after him. There's only so much mileage, I think, that one can get out of this stuff before we are pumping a dry well (how's that for a mixed metaphor?), so perhaps this is a warm up to what we will see in the fall.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:24:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disagree, it's a good ad, & shouting guy helps (0+ / 0-)

      I think the exact opposite of you, that "shouting guy" should be in every Donnelly ad.  It's a catchy way of getting across the point, in a way voters will absorb, and makes an easy contrast/attack on Mourdock even while Donnelly looks good.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:35:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI - SEN (0+ / 0-)

    I would think that would create huge headaches for Young with his cacucus?

    Inslee's bulldozer features in both ads, and his persona is definitely blue collar. He's about as UN-1% as it gets.

    •  I think Young's already seen as moderate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      considering that he's rather pro-labor among other things (there are lots of unions in Alaska).

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:41:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-06 / NY Mayor - Meng's dad arrested for bribery (0+ / 0-)

    Links courtesy of politckerny

    The father of Grace Meng candidate for NY-06 was arrested for attempted bribery.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    The power broker, Jimmy K. Meng, 68, of Bayside, who faces one count of federal wire fraud, served in Albany in 2005 and 2006. He is the father of Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who last month won a fiercely fought four-way Congressional primary to become the Democratic nominee in November to represent a heavily Democratic slice of eastern and central Queens.

    According to a complaint filed by Loretta E. Lynch, the United States attorney for the Eastern District of New York, Mr. Meng told a friend facing tax charges in Manhattan that he could divide a bribe among assistant district attorneys working on the case, and obtain a more lenient sentence.

    What makes this interesting is another article suggesting they want to get Meng to flip against City Comptroller and 2013 Mayoral candidate John Liu.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    After the feds collared Meng, who faces 20 years in prison if convicted, they pressed him to cooperate and wear a wire to further an ongoing corruption investigation -- but he refused, sources told the Daily News.

    Several Republican sources said Meng had fund-raised heavily for his daughter, Assemblywoman and NY-6 hopeful Grace Meng, and other candidates in the city's Asian-American community.

    One law enforcement source said that the hope was to flip Meng and make use of his long history of raising campaign cash -- especially as the feds continue to probe an alleged fundraising conspiracy in City Comptroller John Liu's as-yet-undeclared mayoral campaign

    And ethical/legal problems are nothing new for Jimmy Meng.

    http://articles.nydailynews.com/...

    Hopefully this stays insulated from Grace Meng.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 08:56:01 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver says it would be nice (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingTag, Mark27

    to get  top shelf pollster to poll MI. Oooo, little dig at PPP there?

  •  nixon would be an interesting VP pick in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

    for Hillary ...

    He remains pretty popular in Missouri and has lots of name recognition here.

    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 09:44:50 AM PDT

    •  I'd much rather him try to knock off (3+ / 0-)

      Blunt or, if it comes to that, whatever Republican defeats McCaskill this year. If he's interested in having an impact, he should realize he'd have far more influence as a Democratic senator from Missouri than he would otherwise. Whatever qualities he brings to the table we could probably get with someone else, but not many other people would probably be as competitive as he would be in Missouri.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 09:49:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not So Sure..... (0+ / 0-)

        As a Vice-Presidential nominee, his policy agenda would be a pretty close iteration of the mainstream Democratic platform.  If he was a Senator from Missouri, I could see him being more like Joe Manchin and thus being of very limited use to his party.

        •  Imagine John Raese in that seat (3+ / 0-)

          and then ask yourself how much use he would be to us. Even annoying pains-in-the-ass like Joe Lieberman are valuable for our side, simply because they vote with us more often than any Republican would.

          I don't imagine Nixon assuming the role of Good, Great, and Glorious Progressive Visionary any time soon, whether in the Senate or higher up. But unless he's actively sabotaging us, his presence is still valuable. The fact that he might be able to hold down that seat for us makes him all the more so.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 11:05:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  T& R for (0+ / 0-)

    " today Gongwer News Service reports that jackal-headed god of the underworld Anubis is the main force behind the creation of a new PAC running issue-oriented ads ("Send a papyrus to Amenhotep IV, and tell him to say 'no' to Aten and support the pantheon of gods; monotheism goes against Egyptian values.").
    "

    We've had our disagreements, but that wipes the slate clean.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 01:58:23 PM PDT

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