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Today's rather lengthy list of poll releases does strike a few counterintuitive chords, and most of them will probably disappoint partisans within the GOP.

One campaign (that of Republican Senate contender Linda Lingle of Hawaii) even fired off a preemptive strike: they sent a blast e-mail last night protesting the findings of a Ward Research poll that hadn't even been released by that point.

Also, it will be tough for Republicans to call Nevada coin flip with a straight face when their own favorite pollster gives Obama 50 percent of the vote there.

There are others (this is a lengthy set of polls today), but you get the idea.

On to the numbers:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

ILLINOIS (Ipsos for Crain's Business Journal): Obama d. Romney (51-31)

MISSOURI (We Ask America—R): Romney d. Obama (49-40-2)

NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (50-45)

NEW JERSEY (Monmouth): Obama d. Romney (51-38)

PENNSYLVANIA (GOP Internal Poll): Obama d. Romney (46-43)

AZ-SEN—R (Magellan): Jeff Flake 45, Wil Cardon 23

AZ-06—R (National Research for Schweikert): Rep. David Schweikert 49, Rep. Ben Quayle 33

CA-24 (DCCC IVR): Rep. Lois Capps (D) 51, Abel Maldonado (R) 40

CA-30 (Feldman Group for Sherman): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 46, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 29

HI-SEN (Mellman Group for the DSCC): Mazie Hirono (D) 52, Linda Lingle (R) 33

HI-SEN (Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Mazie Hirono (D) 58, Linda Lingle (R) 39; Ed Case (D) 56, Lingle 38

HI-SEN—D (Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Mazie Hirono 55, Ed Case 37

MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38; Stabenow 51, Clark Durant (R) 34

MI-SEN—R (PPP): Pete Hoekstra 51, Clark Durant 17, Randy Hekman 4, Peter Konetchy 1

NJ-SEN (Monmouth): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) 42, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32

NC-GOV (Garin-Hart-Yang for NC Citizens for Progress): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 39

PA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 36

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

Within the past week, Republicans have crowed about having a legitimate chance at the open Senate seat in Hawaii, as well as a tightening race in Michigan.

Two separate polls shot the holy hell out of the Hawaii meme. One poll was a Democratic poll, but the interesting thing is that the nonpartisan poll in the mix (the Ward Research poll) was every bit as optimistic for Democrat Mazie Hirono as the DSCC poll had been.

(Fascinating side note: both the Lingle campaign's blast emails of late, and the DSCC poll, are essentially pretending as if former Rep. Ed Case, who some polls have shown fairly close to Hirono in the Democratic primary, simply doesn't exist. Very interesting)

Meanwhile, as I predicted yesterday, PPP's new Michigan poll contradicted Rasmussen's poll showing a tightening race. The crew at PPP had Stabenow at a fourteen-point edge, an insignificant erosion of just two points since the Spring. One note: that Mitchell Research poll hinting at a Romney lead (!) in the state yesterday did not appear to have a Senate component, or at least it doesn't have one yet. Keep one eye for that one, since what appears to be a GOP skew will likely yield pretty decent numbers for ole Pete Spenditnot.

Other new polls out today look better for Democrats than other recent polls, as well. Democratic polls for Lois Capps (CA-24) and Walter Dalton (NC-Gov) were clearly offered as a counterweight to recent GOP polling that showed incumbent Capps in severe peril, and Dalton trailing by double digits. Having said that, however, the Dalton poll is a bit of a buzzkill. When a partisan pollster has the other guy up by six points, that's not cause for celebration.

Likewise, it is going to be tough for Republicans to declare either Pennsylvania and Nevada as coin flips when their own pollsters have the president up 3-5 points, respectively.

In other polling news...

  • Not all the polling news today was so swell for Democrats. PPP offered something of a rarity—confirmation that Rasmussen was not going off half-cocked in a recent poll. They have Republican Tom Smith essentially halving the lead for incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. What was a 16-point lead is now a lead of 10 points. It is still somewhat comfortable, of course, given that it is a double digit edge. However, the presidential numbers barely budged (from 8 points to 6 points), so it is tough to attribute the movement solely to a less optimistic sample, or something of that nature.
  • The new Monmouth numbers in New Jersey are very much within the range of what we have come to expect in the Garden State, with solid-yet-not-dominant leads for the Democrats running for the White House and the Senate. However, Republicans are choosing to focus all of their attention on the new "likely voter" screen that Monmouth is employing. Why? Well, of course, as is the case for many likely voter screens, it conjures up numbers that look a lot better for the red team. Under their LV screen, both Barack Obama and Bob Menendez see their leads drop to single digits (8 for the president, and 9 for Sen. Menendez).
  • Speaking of likely voter screens, I'll close this busy Thursday edition of the Wrap with a simple comment: I really, really like PPP's soon-to-be-implemented likely voter screen. Sometimes, simpler really is better.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Hirono for Senate and Daily Kos.

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