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The other day I wrote a comment in which I tried to project future voting trends in Texas. This diary is a lot like that comment! But with more words. And a few images.

First, a little bit of background on Texas demographics. As of the 2010 census, the state was about 45% white, 38% hispanic, 11% black, and 6% other, mostly Asian. That's compared to 53/32/11/4 in 2000. State's getting less white, more hispanic. But you knew that.

(Map is from the NY Times.) People look at such numbers sometimes and say Whaaaaa?? How are Democrats not competitive in Texas with numbers like that? That's f'ed up, dog! Well, there are a couple of reasons. For one thing, about 10-15% of the Hispanic population are non-citizens. Here's where the undocumented population lives, in case you're curious:

(This and the next image are from a presentation (pdf) by the state demographer.) You'll notice that most undocumented immigrants live in the Houston and Dallas metros, whereas the vast majority of hispanics that live in the border counties are citizens. This goes a long way towards explaining, incidentally, why hispanic turnout always seems so feeble in Texas' two biggest cities.

All right, so there's that. But an even more important factor is the age structure of the state:

Setting aside the citizenship issue, the hispanic population skews very young - a lot of them are just too young to vote. (Plus the ones who are eligible are less likely to vote, just because young people are more likely to stay home on election day. Whereas old folks like nothing more than to vote. Man, they just vote, vote, vote! Vote like there's no tomorrow (which there isn't for old folks, of course). And just look how white old folks in Texas are!) All of which is to say, the citizen voting age population substantially lags the demographic change which Texas has seen in recent years.

*     *     *

Okay, so. Here is a study from the William C. Velazquez Institute that looks at the demographic future of the US, California, and Texas, including predictions of citizen voting age population by demographic group. And here's a graph they made for Texas:

CVAP-wise, here are the percentages they give for whites/hispanics/blacks/others by year:

2010: 57/26/13/4
2015: 51/31/14/4
2020: 45/36/14/5
2025: 35/44/14/7

(The numbers for whites are inferred, because hispanics overlap with whites somewhat in the census data WCVI is using - that's why numbers for whites are higher here than they are in the graph above.)

You can see the discrepancy from overall population figures - a white/hispanic ratio of 45/38 in the overall population becomes 57/26 in terms of CVAP. But the question I want to answer is: what do these numbers say about future voting patterns in Texas?

Well, in 2008, Obama won 26% of whites, 63% of hispanics, 98% of blacks, and, let's say, 60% of others (just guessing on that one). In 2010 as a gubernatorial candidate, Bill White got 29% of whites, 61% of hispanics, 88% of blacks, and who knows how many of the others. So if we're looking at expected performance for a fairly generic democratic candidate for federal office in Texas in a neutral year, I think we can expect they'd get about 27% of whites, 62% of hispanics, 90% of blacks, and that made up number of 60% for others.

So if we plug in those numbers to the demographic profile, this is the percentage of the two-party vote the Democrat would get:

2010: 45.6
2015: 48.0
2020: 50.1
2025: 53.5

This makes it seem that Dems ought to be competitive in Texas statewide races by the end of this decade, and solidly favored by the mid-'20s. However, this forecast would basically represent turnout nirvana for Democrats, because hispanics do not vote at anywhere near their CVAP numbers.

(As an aside - this is generally treated as a problem of "getting out the hispanic vote." But I wonder about this. The hispanic population is disproportionately young and poor, and if you corrected for these two variables, I wonder if there would be any depressed turnout effect attributable simply to hispanic identity. Someone should look into this!)

Anyways, to illustrate the point: according to this report, the CVAP breakdown in Texas ca. 2008 was about 58/26/13/3, but according to exit polls turnout was 63/20/13/4. Given the numbers I used above, that works out to 43.5% for the Dem - just slightly less than Obama's actual share, since he of course totally dominated the black vote.

So what would be more realistic turnout projections? Maybe something like this:

2010: 64/19/13/4
2015: 58/24/14/4
2020: 52/29/14/5
2025: 42/37/14/7

Here I just added 7% to the white vote share and subtracted the same amount from the hispanic vote share. Pretty crude, but it's consistent with continuing underperformance for hispanic turnout, yet slowly improving hispanic turnout relative to population share. (Also I should mention that these are predictions for turnout in presidential elections, though obviously 2020 is the only year that will actually have such an election.) So what do these numbers yield given the same assumptions given above about Dem performance among each group? The following:

2010: 43.2
2015: 45.5
2020: 47.6
2025: 51.1

So if we assume Dem performance remains static among each demographic group for the next 12 years, Texas ought to be a genuine swing state by the 2024 election. We might even have a shot in Texas by 2020, depending on how that year plays out.

But I wonder about these numbers a bit. In particular, I'm surprised at the rate at which the CVAP in these projections approaches overall population numbers. As I mentioned above, in 2010 Texas was 45% white, 38% hispanic, 11% black, and 5% other, meaning the white CVAP was 12 points higher than overall population, but for 2025 the population breakdown should be about 34/48/11/7, implying a white CVAP only 1 point higher than total population. That don't make no sense! (Or at least, it seems unlikely to me.)

I'm thinking, then, it would be prudent to bump up the white numbers for expected turnout by a bit - say, +2 for 2015, +4 for 2020, and +6 for 2025, and subtract the same for hispanics. Then we get turnout that looks like this:

2010: 64/19/13/4
2015: 60/22/14/4
2020: 56/25/14/5
2025: 48/31/14/7

Which yields Dem vote shares of:

2010: 43.2
2015: 44.8
2020: 46.2
2025: 49.0

Okay, there you go. If this diary is offering a prediction, this is it. And what this prediction says is that Texas ought to be on the cusp of competitiveness by 2024 - and, though the numbers don't go this far out, it's clear that the state ought to have a gen-u-ine Dem+ PVI by 2028. A slight one, but still.

And if you're wondering if there are precedents for this sort of demographics-based partisan shift - I think there are. California and Nevada have been undergoing many of the same demographic trends as Texas: rapidly growing minority populations, especially hispanics, etc. These states just may be a bit farther ahead on the curve (and of course they started from a much higher Democratic base). And here are what the Democratic margins have been in California relative to the national vote over the last four elections (1996-2008): +4.4, +11.3, +12.4, +16.8; for Nevada the numbers are -7.5, -4.1, -0.1, +5.2.  Whereas I'm predicting that between the elections of 2012-2024, Texas could go from roughly -12.4 to -9.8 to -7.6 to -3.1. As you can see, the changes in voting tendencies that have actually occurred in California and Nevada are greater than what I'm predicting for Texas. It can and does happen!

*     *     *

And, since I haven't yet procrastinated enough from what I should be doing right now, here's one more thing to consider: there is, of course, no reason to assume that party performance won't change at all among these different demographic groups over the next 15 years. Shoot, that's enough time to form totally new party coalitions. So these assumptions about party performance are hardly set in stone. Nonetheless, if we were going to predict a way party performance might change, we could look at how in-migration is changing the character of the Texas electorate. Non-whites are already factored in, since hispanics, blacks, etc. who move to Texas figure to vote about the same as those who already live there. On the other hand, along with all the junk in their U-Hauls, white migrants to the Lone Star state might bring along some new voting patters as well. And these are not trivial numbers of people:

The trends you see here have continued into this decade. And the number one source of these migrants is California, followed by states like Arizona and Florida, as well as the big cities of the northeast and midwest. These are places where white voters vote more like 40-50% for Dems.

Now, I actually think (contrary to some) that Democrats may have a bit farther to fall with rural whites, at least in east Texas. But let's say they gain that back and a little more with the more moderate leanings of new migrants, so that the Dem share of the white vote goes up about a point every three years. (This might be optimistic, but whatever - I'm ending on a high note.) That would give us the following Dem performance:

2010: 43.2
2015: 45.9
2020: 48.1
2025: 51.4

Boom. Over 50% by the 2024 election. There you go.

Okay, I'm done. Jesus, that took for goddamn ever. I'm never writing a diary again.

Update: Just came across a post that looks at hispanic CVAP for each of the top 35 cities in Texas. It affirms what I said toward the beginning of this diary: very low CVAPs in Houston and DFW, considerably higher numbers elsewhere. Bonus observation from Greg:

Interesting differences among the major cities, to be sure. What’s even more interesting is applying a bit of algebra to the numbers provided, which show that Houston’s <18 population is 87.3% citizen [compared to 47.3% of the 18+ population). The trend is replicated throughout the state, with the statewide number for all cities being 92% for <18 Hispanics.
What this means is that the present hispanic population is something of a paper tiger in voting terms (as I've emphasized here) but that future growth in hispanic population most certainly will not be.

POST-2012 UPDATE: In 2008, whites were 63% of the electorate and went 73-26 for McCain. Blacks were 13% and went 98-2 for Obama. Hispanics were 20% and went 63-35 for Obama.

But Obama clearly did better with hispanics this year - almost every overwhelmingly hispanic county swung towards him, even though he did worse overall in the state.

And Lisa Falkenberg said this:

In Texas, the best data so far show a 70-30 split for Obama among Hispanic voters, according to Rice University political science chairman Mark Jones. Romney performed several points worse than Sen. John McCain did in 2008. At the same time, Jones points out, Hispanics became a larger share of the vote in Texas, going from 20 percent in 2008 to 25 percent in 2012.
That's a big bump. So if this is right, what percentage of whites did Obama win? Well, Romney won the two-party vote 58-42. So if the electorate was 25% hispanic (70-30 Obama), 13% black (95-5 Obama), 3% other (60-40 Obama), then whites would be 59% and they would have voted...

82-18 for Romney.

Yikes. That's pretty ugly.

But Falkenberg's claim that the electorate was 25% hispanic seems a bit high to me, especially given that turnout was generally down in the state. Based on the numbers above, I would have expected hispanics to be about 21-22% of the electorate this year. If they were 22% and going 70-30 for Obama, then Obama would have won more like 20% of the white vote. That's still lower than any other recent Dem presidential or senate candidate has done, but still seems believable to me.

Assuming a future composition of the Texas electorate of 56/25/14/5 W/H/B/O for 2020 and like 50/30/14/6 for 2024, then if 70-30 for hispanics and 20-80 for whites becomes the "new normal" in Texas, the republican would win 56-44 in 2020 and 53-47 in 2024.

In 2028 the state would be a toss-up.

Meanwhile, The state is out with population projections through 2050. They offer three migration scenarios; taking the middle one, and filtering for the over-18 population, here are white/hispanic/black/other percentages (2010 is based on the census):

2010: 50/34/11/5
2015: 47/36/11/6
2020: 44/38/11/6
2025: 41/41/11/7
2030: 39/43/11/7
2035: 36/45/11/8

...well, you get the idea. The CVAP numbers will of course be lower for hispanics and others, and higher for whites and blacks, but the gaps between VAP and CVAP will probably gradually narrow over time, as young hispanics are far more likely to be citizens.

Alternatively, if immigration remains as high as it was from 2000-2010, you get:

2010: 50/34/11/5
2015: 46/36/11/6
2020: 42/39/11/7
2025: 38/42/11/8
2030: 35/45/11/9
2035: 32/47/11/10

Though in this scenario I would imagine the gap between VAP and CVAP wouldn't narrow so much. At any rate, though the hispanic population will pass the anglo population around 2017 or 2018, that probably won't happen for the 18+ population until about 6-7 years later, and later still for CVAP (and later still than that for actual turnout, of course)

Originally posted to Chachy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:11 AM PDT.

Also republished by TexKos-Messing with Texas with Nothing but Love for Texans, Southern Action, Community Spotlight, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (226+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Texdude50, allensl, teknohed, tietack, cardinal, Gary Norton, Cedwyn, KingofSpades, TrueBlueDem, phillies, Bob Duck, nominalize, Darth Jeff, temptxan, Pinto Pony, Wee Mama, some other george, shmuelman, chuco35, belle1, tgypsy, cassandracarolina, txcatlin, Woody, Tchrldy, bwintx, blueisland, nomandates, Gemina13, HeyMikey, WisJohn, pimutant, Odysseus, JayRaye, hungrycoyote, Deep Texan, thomask, Nicci August, ferg, fuzzyguy, PhilW, kurykh, linkage, Viceroy, Wordsinthewind, Cuseology, evilhoodedcrow, GeorgeXVIII, anotherdemocrat, GRLionsFan, suesue, OleHippieChick, sow hat, Carol in San Antonio, Rhysling, RandomNonviolence, MKSinSA, Lorikeet, CoolOnion, cany, nycyoungin, whenwego, Dbug, Sixty Something, JanF, Libby Shaw, Statusquomustgo, Mark Wallace, Herse182, Malachite, Zack from the SFV, SBandini, emobile, JDWolverton, Loudoun County Dem, rapala, Zwoof, wuod kwatch, Crabby Abbey, politik, CarolJ, sap, HeedTheMessenger, confitesprit, Sapere aude, Randtntx, sebastianguy99, Kinak, My Spin, where4art, llywrch, brentbent, GMFORD, Glacial Erratic, dewtx, camlbacker, coolbreeze, hankmeister, real world chick, litoralis, pistolSO, cybersaur, mookins, Arahahex, antooo, cactusflinthead, joedemocrat, Gary J, sacman701, peachcreek, livingthedream, Railfan, US Blues, DianeNYS, TXdem, cordgrass, dan667, PhilJD, karmsy, arizonablue, buckstop, Mr Raymond Luxury Yacht, Nica24, praying manatheist, Miss Blue, eeff, LillithMc, trumpeter, letsgetreal, Teknocore, SoCalSal, Larsstephens, David54, citizenx, Dave in Northridge, a2nite, Sylv, Wednesday Bizzare, uciguy30, Quicklund, howabout, Eddie L, Lilredhead, Andrew F Cockburn, DRo, wdrath, elziax, Floande, Radical Moderate, Debs2, Brooke In Seattle, mikeconwell, Dolphin99, cskendrick, roses, Blue Shark, bkamr, Matt Z, wu ming, mrkvica, MikePhoenix, sheepmama, oldliberal, sunny skies, Panbanisha, Glen The Plumber, TrueBlueMajority, TX Freethinker, mconvente, tomephil, hotdamn, jhannon, ellefarr, Friendlystranger, cocinero, exNYinTX, blueoasis, oceanview, bnasley, annieli, jnhobbs, Thinking Fella, Azazello, koosah, 207wickedgood, sailmaker, ratcityreprobate, homerun, Pragmatus, shenderson, davybaby, texasteamster, jck, basket, rennert, supercereal, YucatanMan, jes2, Frank In WA, pixxer, Leap Year, renbear, jan4insight, Nate in IA, MartyM, Bulldozer, vicki, stitchmd, southdem, Candide08, davehouck, Ms Citizen, JamieG from Md, itskevin, gof, Over the Edge, Gertrude, mjbleo, 6412093, sable, DeminNewJ, VexingEyes, CF of Aus, sawgrass727, glitterscale, stevenaxelrod
  •  Nicely done! (51+ / 0-)

    Demographics may help, but I'm also begnning to wonder if anyone knows how to run an effective statewide campaign here now. Sure money would help, but where to deploy resources and how still looks like an issue as Dems rebuild the party statewide.

    The Spice must Flow!

    by Texdude50 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:28:00 AM PDT

  •  Excellent -- one correction (19+ / 0-)

    Many "non-citizens" are "documented" with green cards -- and frequently are on their way to citizenship and voting.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:28:20 AM PDT

  •  Fascinating analysis, (21+ / 0-)

    with a lot of info I hadn't seen elsewhere. Nice work.

    However, there's one missing element -- it's nearly always missing from these sort of projections -- and it's that this:

    So if we assume Dem performance remains static among each demographic group for the next 12 years. . .
    is a dangerous assumption. Hispanics (in the aggregate) are swing voters, with wide inter-cycle variation in their partisan affiliation. Sure, Obama did well with them in 2008 -- but that's no guarantee of future performance. Only 4 years earlier, Bush did remarkably well for a Republican. Remember, Texas Republicans have never had the anti-immigrant taint of the national party. Bush was widely considered to be friendly to their interests, and Perry's presidential run was almost single-handedly derailed when he called his opponents "heartless" over the issue.

    Texas is on the verge of electing its first-ever Hispanic US Senator, and he ain't from our party. I'm not saying that, by itself, will have a large impact on Hispanic party ID. But it's a useful caution that their votes are fluid and not to be taken for granted.

    One more thing: the in-migration from other states is no help in the era of partisan geographic sorting. If CA whites are 50/50 D/R, guess which 50 are moving here?

    You are reading my signature line. #hashtag

    by cardinal on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:36:35 AM PDT

    •  Perry in 2010 (9+ / 0-)

      Won about 38% of Hispanics, similar to McCain's 35% so even if Perry is not super anti immigrant, he still is not popular with Hispanics. He performed pretty poorly in the Border Counties too (he received only around 6,000 votes in the county containing Laredo while his opponent received around 22,000.)

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:45:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right. (8+ / 0-)

        And all the exit polls I could find - White vs. Perry, Radnofsky vs. Hutchinson, Cornyn vs. Noriega - had hispanics right around the low 60s for the Dem (Radnofsky was more like high 50s against the popular Hutchinson). Bush '04 was really the only exception, and he had a uniquely strong performance nation-wide among hispanics for a republican, plus a home state effect.

        •  I would agree (7+ / 0-)

          Bush was more popular with Hispanics because of his moderate immigration views, his strong outreach programs to them (he spoke Spanish too,) and he also appealed to the Hispanic evangelicals. Most of the Hispanic movement from 2000 to 2004 toward Bush was from Hispanic evangelicals actually.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:19:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't put too much stock... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HeyMikey, wu ming

          ...in exit polls when it comes to gauging Texas Hispanic voting patterns, especially the 2004 numbers which have been well debunked.

          A better example of Hispanic party affiliation is checking the actual votes in counties along the border that are overwhelming Hispanic -- like 96-98% Hispanic (Zapata, Webb, Zavala, Starr). These numbers show a much higher percentage of Texas-Mexicans voting for D candidates (like 85% when we have credible D candidates).

          I laugh at the cynics who caution us not to rely on Hispanic voters preferring the D party. It's as absurd as warnings that Black voters might change their minds and start voting R in the near future.

          "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

          by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:01:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Turnout & policy: EDUCATION. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, Lilredhead

            IIRC education is a big factor in turnout %. The more educated someone is, the more likely he or she is to vote.

            So it's probably no coincidence that:

            * Whites are currently (on average) better-educated than Hispanics.

            * Whites are currently (on average) more prosperous than Hispanics, thus better able to afford private schools.

            * The Texas GOP is happy to sabotage public education.

            GOP motto: As long as they're down, keep your foot on their neck as long as possible.

            "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

            by HeyMikey on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:26:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Ah, that explains why there are parts of (5+ / 0-)

    the panhandle that are extremely Republican, but have significant Hispanic population.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:36:40 AM PDT

  •  tipped and rec'd (7+ / 0-)

    and republished to southern action shortly!

    Die with your boots on. If you're gonna try, well stick around. Gonna cry? Just move along. The truth of all predictions is always in your hands. - Iron Maiden

    by Cedwyn on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:36:58 AM PDT

  •  Where did you get that first map showing (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, txcatlin, nomandates, Woody, Matt Z

    racial breakdowns by county?  I want to see it too across the nation sometime.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:37:52 AM PDT

  •  Amazing Analysis (12+ / 0-)

    A great read. Thanks for writing this!

    20, Male, originally OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of the Ozarks!). Half-Panamanian, Half-Spanish, 100% American. Currently attending Oklahoma State University.

    by gigantomachyusa on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 07:55:40 AM PDT

  •  Lovely! (10+ / 0-)

    Thank you for this.

    Two comments.  One, I'm not sure about the error bars, but it looks like from census numbers there may have been a net outmigration of citizen Hispanics from Texas over the last few years.  That could certainly mess with trends. Second, a major part of the political trends in California and Nevada was an increase in voter participation among Hispanics, which is not happening in Texas (yet).  For instance in Nevada it went from 28% of Hispanic citizens voting in 1996 to 52% in 2008.

    •  I was going to say... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wee Mama, txcatlin, nomandates, itskevin

      I'd love to see someone who actually knows about statistics and stuff try to work out these numbers. My own personal math skills maxed out in about 8th grade...

      Also, very interesting point about voter participation. I also believe it's the case that participation among all groups in Texas is relatively low, though I'm not totally sure about that...

    •  Unions on the Strip (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lilredhead

      I have a notion that the unions in Vegas worked hard to build political strength by mobilizing their members among the casino and hotel workers. All those maids and kitchen helpers got registered and helped to the polls by their union reps.

      Alas, any serious labor union effort in Texas would be met by the National Guard, or at least the Texas Rangers in full force.

      •  terrible slur (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        you might want to insult the people who deserve it-Republicans but you can leave the Texas Rangers out of it. They are the one authority Texans can turn to when their local officals need investigating. I have personally seen the Rangers clean up a county near me that sorely needed it. It's easy to take cheap shots but they remain cheap and in this case ill informed.

        "When you're swerving on life's highway you're running someone off the road." Robert Earl Keen

        by Wordsinthewind on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:53:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends On Your Point Of View... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming

          ...and cultural heritage. The Rangers don't have much of a rep in South Texas.

          "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

          by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:12:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And there's this: (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DRo, wu ming

          (Google is my friend.)

          ... the 1968 Economy Furniture strike lasted three years and changed Austin's political culture.

          When a group of Latino workers sought better wages and working conditions at the factory they had no friends at City Hall, none at the courthouse and very few at the Capitol.

          They nonetheless pressed Milton and Helen Smith, the factory owners, for the right to unionize.

          After the Smiths refused to recognize the favorable vote to unionize, the workers struck.

          The city's anti-union authorities called in the Texas Rangers to maintain order. César Chávez, the late farm worker leader, showed up in support of the strikers.

          http://www.statesman.com/...

          Of course, that was 45 years ago. Now Governor Rick Perry is over the Rangers, so we can all relax, right?

          •  not exactly (0+ / 0-)

            the Texas Rangers are an independent arm of the Department of Public Safety. They guard their independence because part of their job is to investigate complaints against elected officials. They would certainly bristle at your description of them being under Gov. Perry and the many Republicans who've been convicted and removed from office would likely object as well.

            "When you're swerving on life's highway you're running someone off the road." Robert Earl Keen

            by Wordsinthewind on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:03:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Except that county and state officials can... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody, Lilredhead, wu ming

              ...call them into action. Maybe they've changed their ways, but I remember when the Rangers beat the shit out of farmworkers on strike in the Valley in the late 60's -- at the behest of the growers and white-right power structure.

              But they are good. They busted the UFW big time. To the point where the Union never returned in force.

              "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

              by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:46:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  can you come up with anything (0+ / 0-)

                that isn't 45-50 years old? It looks as desperate as the wingers crying about Obama smoking pot in high school.

                "When you're swerving on life's highway you're running someone off the road." Robert Earl Keen

                by Wordsinthewind on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:04:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's hard to forgive or forget... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...when your farmworker cousin got his skull cracked open for sitting in at a packing shed.

                  "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

                  by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:51:14 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I am sorry to hear that (0+ / 0-)

                    about your cousin, we have so much shameful history here in Texas. We have also seen changes come about because people like your cousin were willing to put themselves on the line and shame the conscience of decent citizens. The Rangers changed in large part as a reaction to being used for such crass purposes, it has become a much more professional force that roots out corruption instead of participating in it.

                    "When you're swerving on life's highway you're running someone off the road." Robert Earl Keen

                    by Wordsinthewind on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 02:50:06 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  rebuilding Texas unions (0+ / 0-)

                      The prior string of comments illustrate a key issue in turning Texas blue, which is rebuilding Texas unions as a core of the new Democratic strength.  Helping build the unions back up would be more effective that having a friendly billionaire help out, as was mentioned earlier in these comments.

                      The construction unions, for instance, used to have  10s of thousands of members in every town along the Gulf Coast from Corpus to Port Arthur (and on to New Orleans).  Now they are down to 100s of members in places like Beaumont and fighting for survival.

                      Meanwhile the Department of Energy poured billions of loan guarantee money into projects along the Gulf, without meaningful enforcement of fair (prevailing) wages requirements, so little of that work went to union members which would have helped rebuild union membership.  If Energy had enforced the wage laws we'd have thousands of additional union members, and stronger pro-Democratic unions, operating in these crucial electoral areas along the Gulf.

                      In contrast, the approval of the Cushing-Houston leg of the Keystone XL pipeline will create work and boost union membership especially among the white working class where D's need the most help.

  •  Great job! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, txcatlin, Woody, nomandates, Matt Z

    It will be good to compare this year's exit polls and see how far along things look.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:15:33 AM PDT

  •  Can't happen fast enough for this Texas Democrat. (18+ / 0-)

    Great diary, thanks.

    "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves." Edward R. Murrow

    by temptxan on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:24:58 AM PDT

    •  Perhaps the Republican Mexican-hating (0+ / 0-)

      will drive more Hispanics to vote, and more to vote D.

      Then Texas will indeed become competitive by 2016. That would seal the fate of Republicans running nationwide.

      Sometimes . . . I feel . . . like a redneck with chopsticks . . . Dreaming of squirrel while I'm sucking down squid . . .

      by Pale Jenova on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 03:37:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great analysis (and quite droll too) (4+ / 0-)

    Hispanics will turn out in greater numbers when they can win elections, if for no other reason than elections will draw better candidates and more money for them. Still, 13 years more of Rick Perry types is pretty bad. There will be other swings to the left as they brutalize themselves on women's issues and the economy.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:42:13 AM PDT

  •  Wow-excellent diary. Should be front paged. (9+ / 0-)

    I started following you-hope it won't be several years before your next great diary.

    Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

    by Wee Mama on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:43:30 AM PDT

  •  Republished to TexKos with the hope that (7+ / 0-)

    you will write more great diaries on this important topic. This was outstanding! I moved to Texas 5 years ago and have been delighted to find quite a few Progressive folks. Too dispersed, but still very committed to turning the Lone Star State blue!

    Some drink deeply from the river of knowledge. Others only gargle. -- Woody Allen

    by cassandracarolina on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:08:10 AM PDT

    •  Not Dispersed If You... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TX Freethinker

      ...live south of the Nueces River, and just as committed to electing Democrats.

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:24:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Your projections go a long way toward (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nomandates, TexasDemocrat

    explaining why many white Texas Republicans don't believe in teaching ethnic studies in school...

    Great diary.

    Feminism is the radical notion that women are people. ~Cheris Kramarae and Paula Treichler

    by Tchrldy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:08:59 AM PDT

  •  What of changing demographics of the white vote? (5+ / 0-)

    Thanks for a very informative analysis? But I can think of one way that your projections might be too pessimistic. Might the white vote be less overwhelmingly Republican as younger voters enter the likely voter universe? If so, Texas might become competitive sooner.

    "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, it expects what never was and never will be." - Thomas Jefferson

    by Blue Boomer on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:18:29 AM PDT

    •  Texas lives on the snowbird tax (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fuzzyguy

      cheep cheep.

      Texas schools are terrible, so many of the well-paying jobs in Texas are filled by in migration from other states.  I came here in 2007 for a job and have been in and out ever since.

      The last analysis that I saw showed that migration and birth rates contributed about equally to population growth.  So part of the issue would be what kind of person moves to Texas and why?

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:34:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  no Crazy Mo Joe (0+ / 0-)

      Democrats need a boogeyman such sheriff Arpaio. Point out that shit happens when you vote rebublican't or don't vote at all. Starting now educate, inform, and organize hispanics to vote in their best interest and against people like crazy Joe.

      bumper sticker; "Texas, too big to fail
                                 " Vote Democrat"

      If a man claims to speak for god he will assure he is also gods' banker.

      by AuntieM on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:04:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  But the last line of the diary ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hungrycoyote, bumiputera

    Recently, under what I felt was extreme provocation, I blurted out "Jesus H. Christ!" My lovely 80+ cousin heard, but did not speak to me for an awkward and unfortunate period of time.

    We must all know that sometimes language that's O.K. in one group can deeply offend others of another group. And something may be lost while nothing can be gained.

    Note to self: Watch my fuckin' mouth.

    Note to Chachy: It's even worse to offend in print.

    •  Perhaps, the last line could be edited (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, DRo

      to express the same sentiment to:

      "Okay, I'm done. That took forever. I'm never writing a diary again."

      I very much understand that feeling; however, I've never written a diary this involved, with graphs and charts and statistics, so I appreciate what Chachy is feeling.

      But, yes, it would be wise to edit the printed words because a flame out over the last sentence would take away from the value and information contained in the body of the diary.

      For me, Mitt reminds me of Jeff Bridges in Starman. He's like an alien that hasn't read the entire manual. You know, he's going, "Nice to be in a place where the trees are the right size. -- Robin Williams on Letterman 26 Apr 2012

      by hungrycoyote on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:41:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pretty Innocent... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AuntieM, TexasDemocrat

        ...and not much to get flamed out over.

        "Thou shalt not use His name in vain" is much ignored in our culture. If you feel insulted by it each time you hear it, you will feel insulted much of your social time out with people.

        "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

        by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:17:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Working with a small group of (8+ / 0-)

    Blockwalkers in Comal Co.

    We are doing voter registration in Hispanic neighborhoods.

    My prediction: when non-white eligible voters start voting in large #'s, Texas will turn blue.

    We are getting side by side copies of the Repug & Dem Texas platforms out, printing them a little a time, side by side in a local Spanish language newspaper.

    The Texas Repug Party Platform has to be seen to be believed, and even then you might think that, surely, they can't be serious!

    WE NEVER FORGET Our Labor Martyrs: a project to honor the men, women and children who lost their lives in Freedom's Cause. For May: Martyrs of the San Diego Free Speech Fight, Spring 1912.

    by JayRaye on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:37:55 AM PDT

  •  It's happening to other places too (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    whenwego, swansong50

    In fact, this is a national problem for the GOP.  One wonders what "wedge issue" they'll come up with to divide workers and fool them into voting Republican.

    We're living in world fascism, but coming up to world socialism. But it doesn't happen without a fight.

    by Deadicated Marxist on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:20:06 AM PDT

  •  Very nicely done. (0+ / 0-)

    Thank you for your efforts.

    Even though I am disappointed at some of his actions, I am thankful every day that Barack Obama is President and not George Bush and certainly not John McCain.

    by gritsngumbo on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:36:41 AM PDT

  •  Great diary - keep on writing! (0+ / 0-)

    Good, understandable projections. Nice takeaway. Thanks.

    Now, it appears to me that if IF a Hispanic Republican appeared in that time frame (e.g. a Jeb Bush son, if such exists) that would kill your 2025 timeframe, no?

  •  It Won't Matter (0+ / 0-)

    Demographic changes won't mean political changes without education. Texas has a horrible graduation rate and some of the lowest paying jobs and, as we're sadly aware, both are tied to low voting patterns. Communities are going to have to rally and support their populations to have any significant change.

    •  Demographic Changes Mean Political Changes... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brooke In Seattle, wu ming

      ...if we organize and get out the vote. Waiting for an "educated" populace is as good as waiting for Godot.

      The national party has abandoned Texas since Ann Richards' term. We've been left on our own at the county level. Texas had much more involvement from the Ds when Carter was president.

      A change of attitude, focus, and good ole bucks, is more of a plan than waiting for the schools to do better by minorities.

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:52:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Flipping Tx depends on (0+ / 0-)

    Voter turnout

  •  Really great work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ybruti, wu ming

    the only caution I would add is that as minorities increase there is some evidence that the White vote polarizes in the other direction.  At some point, that won't be enough, but my guess is that the GOP will hold on longer than we think because of it.  For example, see the White vote in Mississippi.  

    The other thing to watch is the under 30 white vote.  The hope in Mississippi and Georgia, where the GOP is entirely dependent on winning 85% of the white vote, is the trend away from racial polariztion in the 18-29 vote means that in about 15 years they will turn Democratic.  In Mississippi, for example, the White vote under 30 in 2008 went 81-19 GOP.  While this sounds bad, it is about 5 - 10 point better for the Democrats than 2004.  If that continuues, then some very deep southern states will turn blue in about about 15 years.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:20:46 AM PDT

    •  The white vote in Texas (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Leap Year

      Is already extremely Republican, especially in the rural areas on a Presidential level. The only places where the white vote goes 20%+ for Democrats nationally are the urban areas where the white voters seem to be slowly trending Democratic anyway. Also, Austin whites are pretty Democratic and are getting more Democratic too.

      Mississippi is different because it does not have the large urban centers like Texas does which have some country club white Republicans who are trending Democratic. Collin County is a good example. It's in suburban Dallas, went 70% for Bush in 2004 but only 60% for McCain in 2008 and it's filled with those country club style Republicans. The 7th district is similar but shows an even bigger trend. 69% for Bush in 2000, 64% in 2004 and around 56% for McCain in 2008.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:38:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This makes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Leap Year

        Texas sound more like Gerogia where there is some movement away from white polarization among the urban young in Atlanta (though not as much as you would hope).

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:32:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Polarized Voting Works Both Ways. (0+ / 0-)

      Polarized white voting will inevitably lead to polarized minority voting, which brings us right back to that mean old demographics.

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:55:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's something I thought about. (0+ / 0-)

      And like I say in the diary, I think Dem performance might still fall a bit with rural east texans (west texans really don't have any farther to fall). But generally speaking I don't know about this theory of racial polarization. It definitely exists in Mississippi and Alabama and Louisiana. But not Maryland, even though that state is like 30% black. In fact I'm not aware of any sort of positive correlation outside of the south between minority share of the population and racial polarization of the vote. Texas is in the south, of course, but it just goes to show that it's not a hard and fast law - that are always other cultural factors in play.

       Moreover, is it even correlated with increasing minority shares of the population? Because the areas that are most polarized have pretty much always had the largest black populations.

      Further: I've been mentioning black rather than minority populations here because that seems like the relevant variable. Just look at California, which has had lots of Asian and Hispanic populatiopn growth, but it's not as if all the white folks there started voting republican all of a sudden.

      So here's what I think about Texas: that there are a few older white Demosaurs still kicking around, especially in east texas. But not many at this point. And all the growth is in the cities, which are what really matter to Texas demographics. And no, I don't foresee an increase in whites voting for republicans in texas cities and suburbs (beyond the already considerable extent to which they already do). But with the changing profile of the economy there might be some slow drift toward democrats among texas whites - which is what i speculate about at the end of the diary; but I'm not gonna hold my breath waiting for that to happen. If it does, I'll consider it a bonus.

      •  Take a look at Arizona (0+ / 0-)

        Joe Arpaio is bat shit crazy.  He has a POSITIVE approval rating in Arizona (46-45 in the last Arizona poll).  This is actually down from 49-42 last year (the birther stuff has hurt him).  There are few clearer examples of outright rascism in power than Arpaio - the fact that he isn't the most hated politician in America says something, I think, about how racial polarization can happen.  

        Your point about rural versus urban is well taken.

        Let's compare three states: Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.
        Texas you have shown the data for.  New Mexico is 50%White, 41% Hispanic.  Whites went for McCain 56-42 - not far from the national average.  Arizona in 2008 is a bit misleading (given that McCain was on the ballot).  In 2010 Brewer carried the White vote 62-36 but lost lost the Hispanic vote 28-71.  Arizona's hispanic share of the vote in 2008 was 16%.

        In Arizona the margin among Hispanics is not enough to overcome a polarized, and larger,  white electorate.  In New Mexico, with a much larger hispanic population, the white vote really isn't polarized at all.  Texas is even more polarized than Arizona.

        It would be interesting to examine these three states in detail (throw in Nevada for good measure) to understand why and where polarization happens.  

        http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:30:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The other thing to say (0+ / 0-)

        is that Maryland was the early example of a slave state switching sides culturally.  In 1860 Maryland was a southern state in cultural terms, it is now very much a northern state.  Of course the same process is in play in Virginia (which is literally being redefined by NOVA).

        The other thing to watch for (this has been critical in Florida) is to watch where the US migration to Texas is coming from.  It was Michael Barone who noted in the aftermath of 2000 that the people moving to Florida were rural midwesterners, and as a result leaned republican.  As a result, Florida has arguably become more Republican despite our own increase in the Hispanic population.

        I don't know where people are moving from when they move to Texas, but it bears watching.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:38:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes (0+ / 0-)

          So if anything, maryland and virginia go to show that "culturally southern" is not a fixed category. North carolina is heading in the same direction. In fact I would argue that any of the more urbanized states in the south - you could include georgia - are heading in the ssame direction, albeit at different rates and from different bases.

          That was my impression about florida too. The difference, though, is that florida whites vote 40% democrat, so importing conservative midwesterners can make that number go down. Whereas people moving from the west coast and the midwest to texas are much more likely to vote more democratic than indigenous texans.

          Anyways, I'm not really claiming anything about domestic migrants affecting voting patterns. I only threw it out there as a hypothetical; we'd need more detailed information to know what to make of the effect.

          As for your point above regarding AZ/NM/TX - yeah, I don't know what Arizona's problem is. Land of Barry Goldwater? They're the only state that joined the Deep South in voting against Johnson in '64. He was from there of course... But anyways, I would be interested to see if Arizona has grown more polarized recently as the hispanic population has increased. At any rate, it certainly doesn't seem like a phenomenon we're seeing in CA, NM, AZ, CO, or any other western state.

  •  don't stop writing! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, DRo, wu ming

    i'm one of those california to texas in-migrants, and while it's difficult being surrounded by so many republicans, it's encouraging to see that our numbers are increasing.

    thanks for this diary.  every little  bit of hope helps.

    "if we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now". Rev. William Barber 7/11/12

    by politik on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:22:06 AM PDT

    •  I know some Californians (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      johnbrown12962, Leap Year, politik

      Who were liberals and moved to Texas too. They went to Austin.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:39:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I had a contract (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, politik

      for a while in Atlanta, and lived in a northern exurb.

      This was a community of professional workers - almost all of whom were from the North.  We were surrounded by far right southern rednecks.  But our community was split right down the middle - and culturally was far more liberal than the people who surrounded us.

      Very, very strange experience.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:40:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •   (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, KingofSpades, politik

      for a while in Atlanta, and lived in a northern exurb.

      This was a community of professional workers - almost all of whom were from the North.  We were surrounded by far right southern rednecks.  But our community was split right down the middle - and culturally was far more liberal than the people who surrounded us.

      Very, very strange experience.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:40:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Texas is winnable now if the party invested the (5+ / 0-)

    ...time, money and effort. Sadly, no one outside the state seems to be interested as yet.

    I think there is hope that the mayor of San Antonio will be the next big Democratic star from Texas.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:26:35 AM PDT

    •  It has to start from the inside (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TexasDemocrat

      Barack Obama for President '12

      by v2aggie2 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:57:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not So. (0+ / 0-)

        It starts with the money needed to mount effective GOTV efforts in minority communities. That's outside money (although much of the national D money comes from Texas). You can't do much without money in today's politics. The local parties get starved out when November rolls around. Our people stay home because they don't feel our urgency as a party. And it takes money to communicate this and get them to the polls.

        "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

        by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:02:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, TDP needs to raise money itself (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          And people will not if they see no strategy.
          TDP has not had one -- hopefully, that will change with the new chair.

          Barack Obama for President '12

          by v2aggie2 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 02:14:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The big bucks are with O, the dccc, the dnc, (0+ / 0-)

            the dscc, who have the pull. The tdp has no stroke with which to raise bucks.

            "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

            by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 04:29:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Perhaps (0+ / 0-)

              but a lack of strategy doesn't help, either.

              Barack Obama for President '12

              by v2aggie2 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 06:38:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Strategy Is Easy (0+ / 0-)

                Hire good IT people, create great lists, and hire 50-100 people over 60-90 days to register Hispanics and GOTV in November  -- and do it in an efficient and effective way -- at least in my county. But where will we get the money to pay for this? We got it from the Carter campaign in 1976, and won with huge turnouts. But at the local level we have been abandoned by DC ever since.

                The governor's race is never held in presidential election years. If the national Ds want to take Texas they'll have to do it the old fashioned way -- pay to organize the campaigns at the local level.

                Again, not rocket science or an unknown. Indeed, it is done during D primaries.

                "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

                by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 08:24:42 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It is 2012, not 1976 (0+ / 0-)

                  we have a state party that hasn't won a statewide race in 18 years.  There needs to be some accountability here in Texas before the national party will be interested in helping out.

                  As for what needs to happen, organizing has to be a priority 24-7-365.  Right now, it is an afterthought and doesn't even get the attention it deserves in election years.

                  Barack Obama for President '12

                  by v2aggie2 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:00:38 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  This is what we did in Indiana in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

          Lots of the Democrats stayed home because the party before then was mostly nonexistent. The Democrats saw Obama campaigned there though so they decided to vote and Independents were swayed too because they were glad a candidate bothered to campaign there after they had not seen a candidate for a long time.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:45:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  We need good candidates with deep pockets. (0+ / 0-)

      or who have friends with deep pockets.

  •  Excellent Article! (5+ / 0-)

         But let me add a caveat.

         In 1974, I bought The Almanac of American Politics and learned that Texas was already about 18% Hispanic and 12% Black. Since the Hispanic numbers were growing steadily, and since those whites who were still Democrats in Texas had stuck with the party through the civil rights, economic, and cultural revolutions of the 1960s, it seemed reasonable to suppose that those whites who were going to leave the party had already done so, and consequently that Texas should remain a Democratic state for the foreseeable future.

         That expectation seemed to be vindicated when Carter carried Texas in 1976. After that election, the Texas House delegation was about 19 to 5 Democratic, with Republicans holding only the rich suburban areas around Houston and Dallas.

         For a bar bet sometime, ask people to guess which former Confederate state went Democratic in four of the five presidential elections from 1960 through 1976. Only Texas did so, because only Texas went for Humphrey in 1968, while the region unanimously rejected McGovern in 1972.

         So good people have lost money betting that Texas whites could not possibly become any more right-wing and racist than they already are. If it takes 80% of the white vote to carry Texas for the Republicans, well, they certainly have the financial resources to make that an attainable goal.

    •  I Worked The Carter Campaign For... (5+ / 0-)

      ...my county in 1976. It was wonderful. We had support from the national party, both in money and in effort, as well as from the Carter campaign. We blanketed the local airwaves, excited the people, and worked a well-funded whirlwind of a GOTV effort.

      And Texas went blue! Back when there were a hell of a lot less minorities on the voting roll.

      Today we get shit from the national party and presidential candidates -- along with blame for having to work with "ignorant" minority voters. As a result shit is what we get back on election day.

      A similar focus from the national party, and presidential candidates, would go a long way towards achieving what the diarist does not foresee until the next decade.

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:13:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  don't count on all Hispanics being liberal (0+ / 0-)

    There is an odd loyalty dynamic that people need to understand if they want things to move dem.  Also, apathy is a bigger problem than with other groups.

    •  Certainly "ALL" Hispanics Are Not Liberal. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming

      That's a hell of a bar to impose on us. But if you want to see an example of our politics, check out the SoS's website on voting patterns for counties overwhelmingly Mexican in population, such as Webb, Zapate, Zavala, Starr and Maverick, where we make up over 98% of the population, and vote D in national elections by 80-85% -- a consistent historical voting pattern going back to before LBJ.

      Any talk of Mexicans in Texas going Republican is crazy talk -- same as if you argued that Blacks are as likely to defect to the Rs as to stay blue.

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:20:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I live in Texas (0+ / 0-)

        and I know rabidly republican Mexican-Americans.  I also know a lot of Hispanics that flipped their loyalty when Obama stood up for a version of the Dream Act.  It is a demographic that you have to live to understand and I say that as an outsider that is here.

    •  I'm only counting on 62% of hispanics (0+ / 0-)

      even voting democrat, let alone being liberal.

  •  I think when most white voters start voting (4+ / 0-)

    in their best interests rather than to the people who pander to their fear, it will be game over.
    Whites are not much better served by the crappy governance in Texas than Hispanics are.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:49:44 PM PDT

  •  I Don't Get Why (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, TX Freethinker, ferg

    the Dem GOTV effort is not massive in TX.

    There's what? 2 million unregistered Hispanic voters there?

    LBJ got elected t congress in the 1930's driving around in a car on scrub/dirt roads. I think it's a bit easier to get people registered these days

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:54:40 PM PDT

  •  A few other interesting numbers to think about (0+ / 0-)

    (my source is Chuch Todd's "How Obama won pages 160-164)

    Texas is one of the few states Obama did worse with college educated whites than with non-college whites. 25% for college, 26% non-college. All the states this happen in are Appalachian/Ozark/Deep South states. Not sure if this trend will continue, but I feel college educated voters there will eventually start to trend Democratic like they do in the rest of the country.

    Obama share of the vote by age group:
    Age       Obama won     Share of the electorate
    65+             32%                  14%
    45-64          41%                   39%
    30-44          46%                   31%
    18-29           54%                   16%

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 12:58:02 PM PDT

  •  tipped & rec'ed (0+ / 0-)

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:04:20 PM PDT

  •  Another trend (6+ / 0-)

    Another trend that will  happen is mixed race families changing the way white America sees race relations.

    My family is progressive, but me marrying into an Hispanic family has changed the understanding of my family about Mexican American and Spanish American history and traditions, making it much less homogenous.

    Young people are MUCH more likely to both be multicultural or accept multiculturalism.  As the years go on, I think this will be a less clear demographic than previous decades.

    The GOP is currently an old, white political party...but if Rubio and Martinez show us nothing else, it is that race as a factor is not to be taken for granted as the (pardon the pun) "White Knight" for the Texas Democratic Party.

    What we need is organization, armies of volunteers, and voter registration.  What we don't need to do is wait until 2025.

    Good diary.

  •  the demographic trends have been (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    johnbrown12962, FishOutofWater

    going toward the Democrats for more than 20 years. The problem is that Republicans down there seem to be finding ever more ways to mitigate the demographic advantages of Democrats. Of course, now there's an all-out, overt effort to simply try to deny as many minorities the right to vote as possible. And, since Republicans control ALL levers of government in Texas, mark my words: they will find more and more creative ways to continue to disenfranchise Hispanics and African-Americans. Throw in all of those oil billionaires who now can spend unlimited amounts of secret money for politiical purposes and...it still, to me, at least, looks like a Republican advantage for the next decade, at least. It's only a question of how much more the Republicans can try to squeeze certain folks out of the equation.

  •  With this state more Hispanic.. (0+ / 0-)

    why do you think this GOP is pushing for  voter ID so hard?I can't wait for this state to become majority Democratic.I am so saturated with ads by GOP'ers so proud to call themselves "Conservative".All you have to do to get elected in this state is to say the words "conservative" and Obamacare" as many times as possible.Even last night I saw a commercial with Texas Rangers owner Nolan Ryan endorsing David Dewhurst.I thought sports owners are at least to pretend to be neutral in elections.Democrats buy tickets too Nolan.Yes even godless "lib'rils"!

  •  About those white in-migrants (0+ / 0-)

    Do we have any indication of what their political leanings are? Yes, they might be from blue states, but if they are leaving blue states to escape liberal policies, they might be every bit as conservative as native-born white Texans.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 03:22:16 PM PDT

  •  they've been projecting this for a while (0+ / 0-)

    we probably won't see it until 2020

    "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
    Mitt Romney is not the solution. He's the PROBLEM

    by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 04:15:13 PM PDT

    •  just piss on us, won't you. way to inspire (0+ / 0-)

      "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

      by chuco35 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 04:42:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ??? i'm saying the same thing as the diary (0+ / 0-)
        This makes it seem that Dems ought to be competitive in Texas statewide races by the end of this decade, and solidly favored by the mid-'20s.
        and
        So if we assume Dem performance remains static among each demographic group for the next 12 years, Texas ought to be a genuine swing state by the 2024 election. We might even have a shot in Texas by 2020, depending on how that year plays out.
        these demographic trends have been watched and predicted for several election cycles now.   but it is probably too early for this presidential cycle and maybe too early for the next presidential cycle.  so we probably won't see the results on the presidential level until 2020.

        "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
        Mitt Romney is not the solution. He's the PROBLEM

        by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 05:33:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Split Electoral Votes (a la Nebraska & Maine) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority

    will be enacted by the Texas State Legislature while the GOP is still in control, and before Texas becomes a true swing state.  

    This will be done in the name of "electoral fairness" because if Texas's electoral votes all went for the Democratic candidate, the electoral math for the Republican would be insurmountable.

    This may well be why Nebraska has not altered its current system, in order to keep the precedent alive for the true prize, Texas.

    Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can. Arthur Ashe

    by demdoc on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 04:58:37 PM PDT

  •  Please do write more diaries! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cocinero

    This one was great.

    In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act--Orwell

    by jhannon on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 05:34:30 PM PDT

  •  One more group (0+ / 0-)

    Hispanics (and others) who are lawful permanent residents but not yet citizens. I don't know how big this group is, but they would add to the number of Hispanic voters as they complete the process to become citizens.

  •  slowing rate of change (0+ / 0-)

    Since the economic problems of 08 there has been a noticeable decrease in the rate of hispanic immigration in the united states.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    Your numbers may be a bit "optimistic" given that.

  •  Chachy, please write more about TX politics. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Leap Year

    Please say you were only joking about never doing writing another diary. This diary was awesome.

    It's just amazing to me in my lifetime Texas has gone from LBJ and Dems in charge. To what exists today.

    •  Here's a topic to consider (0+ / 0-)

      (I meant to include this in my earlier comment. Oops)

      A very very early population projection shows Texas picking up another three seats in the House after the 2020 census.  
      Talk about if that projection comes to be.

      •  You should definitely check out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        this great diary by wwmiv where he games out 2020 Texas redistricting.

        (One of the many, many people who would have more to say about texas politics than I do, by the way. All I did here was monkey around with the data - I don't actually know much about the political nitty gritty.)

  •  AFT had convention in Detroit (0+ / 0-)

    this last week-end and Tony Trupiano had several of the participants on his show for a couple of days.  I wish I could remember it accurately, but will try.  One day the woman he was talking too said the same thing, she said within a decade Texas would become blue.  She was basing it on the change in population from people moving into the state and said I believe the state was growing by 800,000 pupils per year, the equivalent of the students in Maryland.  I should try to see if I can find the clip of the interview, I know that would be best.  The program is a Detroit program called First Shift and his email is at thetonyshow.org,  I will try to find it.

  •  Some Texas insight is needed (4+ / 0-)

    to understand the uphill battle we face to turn Texas blue.  This is a state that has been controlled by white forces for a long time.  Down in south Texas, where my mother is from, counties that were majority Hispanic waaaaay back in the 1950's were controlled by white men like George Parr...who paid the poll taxes for the Mexican Americans and told them how to vote.  The Latino population is used to this kind of treatment, to their vote not counting to help them, to it being a corrupt system that does them no good.  Voter turnout is low because of this attitude.  Also, when Texas discovered it was educating Latinos on a large scale, the highly thought of Texas school system was crashed...on purpose...our schools are now atrocious, and as a result, only roughly half of all adults in Texas have a high school degree.  This lack of education also depresses turnout.  So a massive influx of money from the national party would be needed to fund a huge get educated and get out and vote campaign.

    That is not going to happen because Texas has no real party at the state level.  The white rural counties have Democratic chairs and (when present at all) precinct chairs that are really Republicans in Democratic clothes.  I call them leftover Dixiecrats...they would not vote for Obama.  I know, because I worked on that campaign here in Texas.  We in our rural east Texas county have tried to vote out our county chair to no success...we have not had enough outsiders come in to our county I guess!

    The Texas Democratic party will have to be rebuilt from the bottom up.  The national party cannot come in here and do it...Texas Dems have to do it...and right now there is NO money flowing into Democratic coffers, because this is a pay to play state.  I believe this is why for all the talk of Texas turning blue, the national party puts very little money and effort into Texas.  Without the money, there is no party...locally or statewide.  During the Obama campaign here in East Texas, donations were practically nil.  Many, many people said they just could not give to the Democrats right now...meaning "Hey, the Dems are not in power right now, my money is going to the ones who can help me!"  We need grassroots leadership;  there are a few bright spots like Dallas county and the big urban areas, but we are really struggling here folks.  In the 1990's the statewide party put all of its resources into the big urban areas and pulled the funding from the rural counties.  This was a huge mistake!  From the time they did that to now, our county, which used to be completely Democratic, is now 99% Republican.  We hold one office...a justice of the peace.

    As for the Hispanics voting Democratic...this is not a given in Texas.  Hispanics are really naturally socially conservative...very family oriented, patriarchal, and business minded.  Many, many are small business owners.  The Texas Republican party is courting them heavily...not like Arizona or Nevada where they do not want them...and have a booth at every Latino event.  The state Dems are not doing this...and they are missing a tremendous opportunity.  Texas Republicans are not stained by the anti immigrant language (yet anyway) and many white Texans prefer an open border, like we have had since forever.

    Those who are coming here from other states are conservative in my county.  Many have come from California where they see themselves escaping mass Hispanic growth and high costs of living to have a better life.  However, those outsiders that have moved into Austin and the hill country tend to be more liberal, so maybe this balances out.

    Bottom line though...unless the Texas Democratic Party gets money and help SOON to do all the things we need to do to, Texas will not swing blue even by 2025.  We need a national plan for Texas.

    •  My own correction (0+ / 0-)

      I meant to write roughly half of all immigrants in the state lack a high school education.  Not roughly half of all adults!

      •  Good synopsis of TX. (0+ / 0-)

        I keep saying it, rather feistily, that the national party (and those from elsewhere who criticize but don't help), to pitch in and help, or get out of the way and we'll do it ourselves, but PLEASE stop the Texas-bashing!

        We know the problems, we are not ignoring them, and those of us working on them need help, or just some peace and quiet to work on them.  POinting and sneering is not only unbecoming, it's counter-productive (and after a while it just pisses off those of us trying to change things).

        Now, what's the short, sweet (bless their hearts) way to say that?

        Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:09:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Like hell you aren't :) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Odysseus
    I'm never writing a diary again.
    That was too good for us to let you quit now. Thanks for a fascinating and rich look at Texas demographics and how they are, and might in the future be, changing.

    "Maybe this is how empires die - their citizens just don't deserve to be world leaders anymore." -Kossack Puddytat, In a Comment 18 Sept 2011

    by pixxer on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:43:51 PM PDT

  •  Being a White Hispanic, (0+ / 0-)

    does anyone think that making people put down Black Hispanic is cool?

    Pro Tip: Spain was in Europe!

    Texas is Texas, you know. The second you think you got it figured out, it will switch on you. Just ask Rick Perry in 2012.

    by Patience John on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 12:17:18 AM PDT

  •  What are Texas Democrats' thoughts on the new (0+ / 0-)

    TDP Chair, Gilberto Hinojosa?

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 03:33:42 AM PDT

    •  Saw him at state convention in Houston (0+ / 0-)

      and he has sent pointed, relevant e-mail blasts weekly since.  I see some good de-ossifying happening in the state leadership with Hinojosa.

      Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:51:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and Julian Castro, San Antonio mayor, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JayRaye

        will apparently be the keynote speaker for the Dem. convention in Charlotte.  Hang on to your seats to see a GREAT upcoming Texas leader!  Reminds me of seeing Obama in 2004 at the convention.

        You will see.  Hide and watch.

        Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:13:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Mississippi Lesson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    As minorities become larger, white identification with the "white" party increases. Mississippi is as black as Texas is Hispanic, and partly as a result hardly any whites vote Democratic -- the GOP is the "white" party and the tribal loyalty is powerful.

    This enables both ideological idiocy and corruption. Fighting the latter is the only course available.

    http://www.danablankenhorn.com

    by Dana Blankenhorn on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:24:30 AM PDT

    •  That's also explicit in Texas. (0+ / 0-)

      Part of the reason why White Democrats are targeted for defeat is that the Republican party wants to rebrand Democrats as "for minorities only".

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:08:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good policy (0+ / 0-)

    Good policy trumps demographics. Relying on demographics to do the work of good policies is a fool's errand.  Relying on past performance for a specific demographic is no guarantee that demographic will continue to vote a certain way.  

    Go back to the idea of an updated "New Deal" with real help for the middle/working class and you won't have to bank on demographics.  

    •  This is absolutely (0+ / 0-)

      right, especially here in Texas.  You cannot rely just on Demographics, nor should you, to swing this state blue.  Democrats need to reach out to ALL, or they will be rebranded the party of minorities.  Which is what Republicans in the south and Texas are trying to do.  And we play right into their hands if all we do is try to make all Hispanic voters Democratic.  But the Dems cannot effect policy in any way in this state right now, so all policy is driven is protect the white vote of republican supporters.

      •  We should go for (0+ / 0-)

        The upper income white voters in the more urban parts of Dallas and Houston. Those voters seem to be trending our way. The 32nd district voted 64% for Bush in 2000, 60% in 2004 (yes, Kerry did better than Gore,) and 53% in 2008.

        The 7th district with similar demographics went 69% for Bush in 2000, 64% in 2004 and 55% in 2008. It would be good to start by winning those voters more.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 02:59:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Very Factual and informative and (0+ / 0-)

    I'm sure the GOP know these trends, not just in Texas but in other states, which is most likely why they are enacting the new poll taxes.

    (-6.25, -4.36) Just another socialist lesbian undermining the sanctity of marriage by breathing

    by Gertrude on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:28:50 AM PDT

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