Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

MO-Sen: Whoa. Have you seen this new Todd Akin ad yet? It's like he had a serious attack of aphasia. The transcript in case you can't watch (and honestly, your brain might melt if you do):

America was founded on the unique vision that our creator gave us life, the foundation of freedom, liberty, to speak as you choose and own what you earn, and the pursuit of happiness, the call to fully and courageously live the dream God puts in our hearts. Times of crisis, when the dream seemed lost, great patriots turned to God, gave their all and rekindled freedom's flame. This now is our duty and our time.
You'll miss Akin's crazy melodramatic delivery (complete with weird emphases and strange cadences) if you don't click through, though. Easily an instant contender for craziest campaign ad of the year.

Senate:

AR-Sen: Super-popular Dem Gov. Mike Beebe will be term-limited out in 2014, but it looks like that will be the end of the line for him altogether. Beebe, who is 65 and has held political office for decades, says he does not intend to run again once he leaves the governor's mansion. Of course, never say never, but Democrats hoping that Beebe might run when freshman Sen. John Boozman wages his first re-election fight in 2016 are likely to wind up disappointed. (There have also been strange rumors that Dem Sen. Mark Pryor might not be interested in running again in 2014, so it's conceivable we may need a replacement candidate for that race as well.) By the way, speaking of Boozman, I feel like this is the first time I've mentioned his name since election night 2010. Pretty invisible, even for a first-termer, huh?

AZ-Sen: So here's that new ad attacking businessman Wil Cardon from the super PAC Liberty for All, the one backed buy a $375K buy which we first mentioned last week. It certainly sounds like a spot dreamed up at a College Libertarian bull session. They've got some Big Brother-related paranoia: The narrator says Cardon "supports putting transponders in cars so drivers can be taxed for every mile they drive." And they're also convinced that everyone's already read their various manifestos on the issue: "Sound like the Obama administration plan to tax cars by the mile?" Uh, sounds like what now? You've lost me.

MI-Sen: Is Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow feeling pretty confident in her re-election campaign? It sure looks that way, because she just took time out to head all the way out to North Dakota to help fellow Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, who is running in one of the most competitive contests this cycle. As Charlie Mahtesian says, this isn't the kind of thing a candidate usually does if she's worried about her own race. As for what this signals for Heitkamp, well, I think it's pretty evident at this point that ND-Sen can no longer be considered a "sleeper"—it's very much for real.

MO-Sen: Ahh! Ahh! Please take Sarah Palin out of my computer! Seriously, I watch a lot of ads so that you don't have to, but I just could not, NOT make it more than 12 seconds into this new spot Palin cut on behalf of a fellow Sarah (Steelman). I think I need a shot and a beer to settle my nerves.

While we're on the Steelman front (sigh), the super PAC backing her play (Now or Never PAC) is out with three new ads. One seriously frenetic spot attacks John Brunner for not paying his taxes and then calls him a "wimpy Yorkie for Obamacare"! The second also goes after Brunner and sounds like it could have been produced by Priorities USA, basically branding him a vulture capitalist. The final ad is a compare-and-contrast spot which features some good Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots footage standing in for Brunner and Todd Akin, while Steelman is of course praised as the lone "true conservative" in the race. All told, the group's spent almost $400K.

In other news, it's been a while since Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill has seen any good polling, and the latest from Mason-Dixon (on behalf of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is pretty darn rough. They show her trailing businessman Brunner 52-41, Steelman 49-41, and Akin 49-44. That last pairing, though, seems to serve as confirmation that Akin is definitely the opponent McCaskill would most like to face in November.

NE-Sen: The Hill's Cameron Joseph reports that the new super PAC (called End the Gridlock) which unexpectedly showed up with a $300K ad buy to help Democrat Bob Kerrey is being backed in part by Majority PAC, though to what extent is not yet clear. Majority PAC is sort of the official-unofficial super PAC of the DSCC and has become probably the chief outside spender on behalf of Democrats in Senate races this year.

NM-Sen: Politico reports that the DSCC is going up with a $150K ad buy on behalf of Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, though the spot ("likely to drive up Republican Heather Wilson’s negatives") doesn't appear to be available yet.

NV-Sen: Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley has three new ads hitting back the faux-scandal that commenter atdnext has dubbed "kidney-gate"; you can find them all at the link. Two of them feature kidney patients who praise Berkley's efforts to keep Nevada's only kidney transplant center open. The third tries to frame the attacks on Berkley as an attack on Medicare, which she then turns into an attack on GOP Sen. Dean Heller, who twice voted to end Medicare by supporting the Ryan budget.

OH-Sen (PDF): A new survey from GOP pollster Magellan that was conducted about a week ago (for conservative think-tank Opportunity Ohio) and seems to have escaped widespread notice has Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown up 45-38 over Republican Josh Mandel. It's pretty remarkable how consistently Brown has remained on top since this race was in short pants, even though no Democratic senator anywhere in the country has borne the brunt of as many outside attack ads as he has.

TX-Sen: PPP's final-weekend poll of the Texas GOP Senate runoff is once again good news for former state solicitor general Ted Cruz, who leads Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst 52-42, up from 49-44 two weeks ago. Dewhurst tried to pre-empt this news by releasing his own internal (from Baselice & Associates) a little earlier on Sunday night that had him up 48-43. But pro-Dewhurst polling from before the primary was overly optimistic, and PPP's pre-primary poll actually over-stated Dewhurst's support slightly and underestimated Cruz's. Of course, a mid-summer runoff is among the most difficult sort of elections to predict, but the late enthusiasm appears to be all on Cruz's side.

Meanwhile, the Club for Growth is taking a premature victory lap (or at least, positioning themselves for the lion's share of the credit) in the TX-Sen runoff as Cruz's biggest backers. However, I'm linking to their memo (PDF), self-serving as it is, because they've actually done an interesting job laying out exactly who spent what and where. For those of you who like to get into the real nitty-gritty of TV ad spending, be sure to scroll down to the charts at the end of the document.

While we're on the topic, one third-party group decided to make an absolute last-minute buy in Texas: The pro-Dewhurst Texas Conservatives Fund dropped in an additional $325K on advertising on Sunday. Seems like a bit late to help Mountain Dew, though.

WI-Sen: Oh man. This is easily the most hilarious poll of the cycle from the Rasmussen Comedy Club. They now have Dem Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a 48-41 spread... after seeing Thompson absolutely obliterate her 52-36 just last month! The droll writer who pens these epic jokes deadpans: "Baldwin was in a much weaker position in mid-June." Hahahahahah! Good one!

In real Wisconsin Senate race news, Baldwin is out with an ad that hits a very similar theme to this Chris Murphy spot, Dem Rep. Tammy Baldwin talks about how she "led the fight to require the Coast Guard to buy their engines from us, not foreign companies."

House:

CA-24: Dem Rep. Lois Capps is out with two new ads (here and here), both pretty unmemorable. The first is a very cookie-cutterish spot about "trust." The second, about her commitment to women's reproductive rights and equal pay, features women who randomly turn to face the camera, almost as though they weren't expecting to be filmed.

CA-52: Back when the DCCC first started rolling out big TV ad reservations, folks noticed that the San Diego area seemed to have gotten left off. The explanation, though, seemed simple: Democrat Scott Peters is very wealthy and can probably self-fund his challenge to GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray. But evidently the D-Trip is leaving nothing to chance, since they've now gone ahead and reserved $1.65 million in fall television time for this race.

CT-05: What a strange development. If you've been following the CT-05 Democratic primary closely, you know that EMILY's List announced plans a little while back to send negative mailers attacking state House Speaker Chris Donovan as some kind of "tax raiser," in an effort to boost the candidacy of ex-state Rep. Elizabeth Esty. Because of Donovan's progressive reputation and record—one of his signature budgets raised taxes on millionaires, a move Esty opposed—EMILY's decision earned some furious pushback (including from me). So now, spokeswoman Jess McIntosh is making this odd claim:

"No mail has been sent, and no Republican talking points have been used, so it's unclear what this group is criticizing."
Has the pressure been so fierce that EMILY simply decided to back down? I mean, they put out a freakin' press release saying they planned to send out these flyers. What's more, Jen Bluestein, their communications director, sent me the following via email last week:
I saw your piece in the round-up, and just wanted to check in about the mail in CT-05. It actually does not refer to the 2009 budget; it refers to the 2011 budget....
So some kind of mailer must exist—at least in PDF form—since Bluestein was trying to issue some sort of clarification about what it contained. In response, of course, I asked to see a copy of the mailer, but Bluestein never wrote back. (And in any event, their argument was still garbage.) So what's going on here? It's a real mystery.

Meanwhile, p.r. exec Dan Roberti is out with a new ad that goes after Donovan for allegedly doing the bidding of big donors, as a man with a briefcase trailing smoke meant to be Donovan proceeds through a variety of scenes. ("House Speaker Chris Donovan took money from a fight promoter, then greenlighted Ultimate Fighting.") Roberti then tries to link this with the current scandal that led to the arrests of several Donovan staffers, in which authorities allege that the suspects tried to collect illegal donations to help kill a "roll-your-own" tobacco bill. (Donovan's denied any knowledge and no evidence has contradicted that.) In the last few seconds, Roberti also crams in a similar attack on Esty, saying she "took money from polluters her husband regulates."

FL-09: Democrat Alan Grayson is trying to damage Osceola County Commissioner John Quinones in the Republican primary, running a radio ad (reportedly backed by a $30K buy) that accuses Quinones of favoring higher taxes. Quinones is definitely the GOP's favored candidate, and Grayson is already back to his typical controversial tactics: His ad is deliberately designed to sound like a news report, though you wouldn't know it unless you listened to the very end and heard his approval message. That bit itself is a bit odd, since Grayson takes the time to randomly say, "I teamed with Republican Ron Paul to audit the Fed."

FL-22: Dem Lois Frankel's second ad is all about healthcare: protecting Medicare, requiring insurers to cover mammograms, and trying to make prescription drugs more affordable. I actually think Frankel has a great, authentic presence that's kind of rare on the campaign trail and talks to the camera very well, which she does only at the tail-end of this spot.

FL-24: Another president's gotten involved in the FL-24 Democratic primary, though at least this time, it's the U.S. president, and also, it's on the incumbent's behalf. It's no surprise that Barack Obama is endorsing freshman Rep. Frederica Wilson, who faces a rematch from wealthy businessman Rudy Moise. What makes this amusing, though, is that back in the spring, Moise was endorsed by Michel Martelly, the president of Haiti. Needless to say, that sort of foreign meddling was not well-received in Miami Gardens.

HI-02: If Tulsi Gabbard can pull this one off, it would easily be one of the biggest upsets of the cycle. In her new internal poll of the Democratic primary (from the Mellman Group), Gabbard is up 37-32 over former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, after trailing him 42-16 in previously unreleased April trendlines. This confirms some independent June polling from Merriman River, which also showed Gabbard surging into a neck-and-neck race with Hannemann. Given that Gabbard started off at 65-11 in Hannemann's polling a year ago, this is an amazing come-from-behind effort. The primary is on August 11 (that's a Saturday), so hang on to your hats—it could be a wild ride if Hannemann is spooked.

IL-02: This makes the whole Jesse Jackson, Jr. story more, not less, confusing:

U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. has been admitted to the renowned Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, to be evaluated for depression and gastrointestinal ailments, the congressman's office said on Friday in a statement released by the clinic.

The statement came more than two weeks after the Illinois Democrat, son of civil rights leader and former presidential candidate, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, was said by his doctor to be undergoing treatment for a "mood disorder."

IL-08: It should come as little surprise that Congress's #1 deadbeat is also a thief:
Rep. Tim Bishop thinks Rep. Joe Walsh’s bill to provide renovation grants for Veterans of Foreign Wars posts is a really good piece of legislation.

Primarily because he wrote it.

In 2010, Bishop, a Democrat from New York, introduced the Renovate and Enhance Veterans’ Meeting Halls and Posts Act with a bipartisan group of co-sponsors. Then in May of this year, Walsh, a Republican from Illinois, unveiled a practically verbatim version of the bill on his own without consulting Bishop or asking him to be a co-sponsor.

One nameless GOP staffer called this move "pretty unheard of," but this is Joe Walsh we're talking about, after all.

MI-13: A labor-backed PAC called Working for Us is trying to save veteran Rep. John Conyers' bacon in the Democratic primary, with a $93K independent expenditure for a bunch of canvassing ($62K worth—that's quite a bit), and some mail as well ($27K), plus another $9K on phone calls. The organization was previously involved in the member-vs.-member Dem primary in PA-12, in which Mark Critz, a major union ally, upset Jason Altmire. The man behind the group is labor guru Steve Rosenthal.

MI-14: The Hotline takes a look at the weird racial dynamics that have long been an undercurrent to the 14th District Democratic primary but have lately burst out into the open. The entire saga, which revolves around Rep. Hansen Clarke, isn't suitable for summarizing but it's very interesting in its own strange way, so I'd encourage you to click through if you aren't familiar with the whole story.

NC-07: Given how much redder they made the 7th in redistricting, it's a bit surprising to see the GOP release an internal poll showing their guy, state Sen. Dave Rouzer, trailing Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre. But so they have: A new Rouzer campaign poll from Public Opinion Strategies has the incumbent up 44-40. Presumably Republicans are excited to see McIntyre under 50%, but there's a flipside to that gerrymander: namely, that McIntyre is new to 35% of the district. Of course, that's mostly red turf, but he still has a chance to introduce himself to voters in the new portion of the seat who've never seen him on the ballot before.

OH-14: Even though we're well past the normal timeframe for members of Congress to announce their retirements, Republican Rep. Steve LaTourette reportedly will not seek re-election this fall. (He has a press conference planned for Tuesday.) Apparently, LaTourette—who after a long career wound up on his party's left flank, despite being a member of the notorious class of `94—had grown fed up with GOP leadership and decided to belatedly call it quits. How a replacement gets selected will depend on when exactly LaTourette formally pulls the plug; we will of course monitor that process closely. And though this is a swing district (John McCain won it by just 0.3% in 2008), Democrats don't stand much of a chance unless their candidate, Dale Blanchard, also steps aside. (Blanchard's raised zero money and was twice crushed by LaTourette a decade ago.) Stay tuned.

TN-03: Most of the air war in Thursday's GOP primary has involved raids and counter-strikes by Rep. Chuck Fleischman and ice cream kingpin Scottie Mayfield and their allies, but congressional progeny Weston Wamp is in the mix in the waning days, too. His closing spot is similar in feel to his first ad, a content-free paean to some sort of American virtue that makes me think he's daring me to participate in the X-Games, not vote in an election.

TN-06: Politico's Alex Isenstadt dives deep into the GOP primary rematch between Rep. Diane Black and the woman she edged by just 283 votes in 2010, tea partier Lou Ann Zelenik. Though Black has a huge cash edge (thanks in part to her personal wealth), we've written about some of the third-party ads that have run on Zelenik's behalf, and Isenstadt now explains where they come from.

It turns out that Zelenik's sugar daddy is multimillionaire businessman Andrew Miller, who is animated almost entirely by rank Islamophobia. He's convinced that Black doesn't hate Muslims nearly enough; Zelenik, though, is a fellow traveler who, as she did last time, has made "her opposition to the Islamic Center of Murfreesboro" a "centerpiece" of her campaign. To date, though, the two super PACs linked to Miller have "only" spent about $217K, a sum dwarfed by Black's own spending. The primary is on Thursday.

WA-01: We noted late last week that Suzan DelBene—trying to close out the Dem side of the primary in Washington's 1st—had self-funded another $900K. And while the ink is barely dry on that story, now she's self-funded another $400K on top of that. What's that going to pay for? Well, if you live in the Seattle market and are watching the Olympics, you're seeing her newest ad almost every hour, which has to get expensive really fast. The spot features a lot of loud repetition of her name from diverse groups of Washingtonians, though the fast-talking announcer rattles off some policy specifics too in between. (David Jarman)

WA-01: One thing I'd like to know is why Progress for Washington, the already-infamous super PAC run by Democrat Laura Ruderman's mom, always spends exactly $21,328.38 almost every time they roll out a new batch of mailers—not a penny more, not a penny less. I feel like I'm going to uncover some sort of Mersenne prime if I continue to follow each new IE report.

WI-02: I can't say I'm surprised to see this: Dem state Rep. Mark Pocan is out with a new internal from GQR that I think represents the first real polling we've seen on the Democratic primary, showing him up 50-21 over fellow state Rep. Kelda Roys. When Roys first started launching negative ads against Pocan last week (which caused several allies to either rescind their endorsements or issue statements of reproach), I figured she had to be behind in her own polling. And with the primary just two weeks away, she hasn't got a lot of time to change the dynamic of the race, which probably explains why Roys is out with yet another attack ad, this time accusing Pocan of being in the pocket of pay-day lenders while an incongruous jazzy soundtrack plays in the background.

Grab Bag:

Fundraising: Primary season is once again heating up, with a whole bunch of contents coming in the month of August. First are up are elections in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. As per usual, we've compiled pre-primary FEC fundraising reports, all of which are available at the link.

Voter Suppression: You've probably already seen the alarming (but alarmingly vague) figure that 750,000 registered Pennsylvania voters don't have adequate identification to vote under the state's new voter ID law. Well, we have slightly less vague numbers, thanks to the AFL-CIO's data team, which calculated how many of those voters fall in each of the state's congressional districts.

The result certainly supports the theory that the voter ID law has a disproportionate effect on non-white and/or poor voters; the districts with the highest numbers are Philadelphia's 2nd, 1st, and 13th, and Pittsburgh's 14th, while the lowest numbers are in the affluent suburban districts like the 6th, 7th, and 8th. Not to minimize the issue, but even this more detailed analysis still doesn't shed much light on the question of how many people who could and would vote will actually get thwarted by the new requirements—assuming the requirements even survive the current court challenge—considering that many of these numbers are just name-mismatches between voter and DOT records, or the names of people who've left the state and not bothered to notify elections officials. (David Jarman)

WI-St. Sen: State Sen. Tim Cullen has ended his (mercifully brief) temper tantrum in which he said he was quitting the Democratic caucus, potentially jeopardizing Dems' newly-won majority in the chamber. Though redistricting changed the lines a bit, Cullen very likely still sits in one of the bluest Senate districts in Wisconsin. He also has a reputation for centrist wankery. He's not up for re-election until 2014, but I'm wondering if he might make a good primary target for progressives.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Mark Halperin itemizes what was wrong (5+ / 0-)

    with Romney's foreign trip:
    http://thepage.time.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:01:25 AM PDT

    •  Also, Romney's press aide pulled a McGovern (7+ / 0-)

      and cursed at the press corps twice:
      http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:03:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yet I suspect it has zero impact on the race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      That being said, a couple half decent jobs reports and Obama could yet blow him away.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:21:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt it (3+ / 0-)

        Honestly this race is basically down to Obama. It doesn't seem to matter what that moron Romney does, lies about, looks completely foolish about, he still seems to be pretty locked in with his support.

        Basically Obama wins if the economy doesn't get worse, he avoids some huge blunder, and takes care of Romney in the debates.

        Its sad but there have already been a half dozen things that should disqualify Romney from even being competitive but he's being proped up by dirty money and a lazy media.

        There won't be a blow out unless Romney takes a dump on Reagan's grave at this point.

      •  I don't quite agree (0+ / 0-)

        There is a decisive percentage of voters who are chronically unhappy with Obama on the economy but still prefer him to Mitt for other reasons.  Anything that happens that highlights and reinforces those other reasons helps Obama win reelection.  I think that's the proper frame through which to view this.  If it was all about the economy, Obama's overall job approval and ballot test numbers would be in the low 40s.

        Your take that this doesn't matter necessarily means that Mitt's entire trip was a waste of time, that he never should've gone.  Maybe that's what some people think, but then Obama's similar trip in 2008 was similarly wasted, no?

        There are some fraction of voters who look at Obama and think they still approve of him overall for certain reasons, and foreign policy is among the biggest of those reasons...it's his biggest unqualified success.  For Mitt to compare so acutely poorly in comparison reinforces Obama's support with that sliver of voters.  And that sliver matters.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:17:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mayor Julian Castro to keynote DNC: (6+ / 0-)

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:02:11 AM PDT

  •  It was my sense that Boozman was (0+ / 0-)

    not the establishment candidate and worked his way up through the ranks in the state.
    I haven't kept up with his voting record, but hardly anything noteworthy has passed out of the Senate.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

    by hannah on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:08:38 AM PDT

  •  Akin really exercised his eyebrows. n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    4mygirls
  •  That was oddly spoken, kind of word salad-ish. (10+ / 0-)

    Also,too, it sounds like a creeping vine of theocracy trying to cover the wall that separates church and state.

    Oh for crying out loud!

    by 4mygirls on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:24:25 AM PDT

  •  NY 19: Gibson internal has him up 53-36 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, askew

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 05:41:46 AM PDT

  •  Pryor probably can't win (0+ / 0-)

    Even though he is to the right of Manchin and votes with republicans almost as much as democrats. Democrat is a dirty word in Arkansas now, at least as long as Obama is president.
    The south is really gone for the democrats now, with Arkansas and WV being the last holdouts with democrats left at the federal level but they are right wing democrats.
    In 20 years the democrats will have the whole country except the South and some states like Wyoming and the Dakotas.  

    •  So dirty (7+ / 0-)

      that Governor Mike Beebe got 65% of the vote in 2010.  Still very, very winnable for the right kind of Democrat, and Pryor is the right kind of Democrat.  Republicans didn't even field a candidate against Pryor in 2008.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:00:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And to your other points (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, kleinburger, R30A

        that Dems will have the whole country except a few areas, I think that assumes the Republican party will not adjust in response to electoral drubbings.  It will.  Self-preservation is a guiding force in politics.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:15:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  GOP future (0+ / 0-)

          I think eventually (probably starting around 2020) the GOP will start to adjust, and most of them will drop the culture-war crap and/or move closer to the mainstream on economic issues. But it takes time for those changes to sink in with people, and it will probably take another 10 years for people to stop seeing them as the party of mean, scared, ignorant old whites.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:22:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't agree (0+ / 0-)

          There is nothing that says the GOP necessarily will "adjust."  This isn't football or basketball, where a coach can change his game plan unhindered.  There is an entire electorate of many scores of millions of voters who have to shift in tandem.  That can't be engineered.  And they don't move in a direction they can't stomach on principle.  And in the GOP, they're moving in the opposite direction of where they need to go for long-term self-preservation because they're in denial.

          Tell me what the California GOP is doing for self-preservation.  When will they "adjust"?  How?  What will their millions of current members sacrifice in their principles to draw more voters toward their party?

          There is no political law of physics here.  There can be one-party domination for a long time because the weak opposition is caught between a rock and a hard place for a long time.  That's been true in national and state-level politics at various times for a long time.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:29:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am thinking long, long term. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, supercereal

            The California GOP might eventually moderate on things like gay marriage, immigration reform, etc.  It may take many, many beatings, and it may not be within my lifetime, but I think eventually the GOP will adjust.  Look at how much the parties have changed over the last 50 years or so.  I agree completely that the GOP is currently headed in the wrong direction, but again I am talking long, long term.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:39:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fair enough, but the timeline matters greatly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              spiderdem

              A period of a generation or two of one-party domination changes the country forever.

              Realistically, the GOP won't change until it has generational change that includes younger voters who are more inclusive coming to dominate.  It has to be the opposite of the tea party movement.  But I don't think today's young GOPers are going in that direction.  Maybe on gay marriage, to some degree, but nothing else.  And gays are not a growing demographic, Hispanics and Asians are.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:43:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  meh... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HeedTheMessenger, stevenaxelrod

      the Dakotas are demographically among the oldest states. They'll trend bluer as that generation passes...

      "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

      by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:00:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh no (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Mark27, KingTag

        In North Dakota the old NP voters are the core of the Democratic party in North Dakota. Also almost all of the young voters coming to the state are oil workers. North Dakota is not a state that is going to move left as the old die off, it will move right. This is also true in states like West Virginia.

        •  the... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, aamail6, stevenaxelrod

          eastern part will...the Valley is becoming increasingly cosmopolitan, and actually went for Obama in 2008 by 6 points.

          It will become for of an east/west divide like Washington and Oregon then.

          "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

          by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:06:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ND (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            stevenaxelrod

            Sounds about right. Politically the eastern third of the state starting at about Jamestown is Iowa (ag), the western part is Wyoming (oil/coal).

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:25:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yea (0+ / 0-)

            Fargo and Grand Forks are fairly Democratic areas. But the western part is the portion of the state that is growing, and booming because of oil.

            •  the oil workers... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              stevenaxelrod, DCCyclone

              aren't all Republican, but any Democrat they consider voting for does have to support North Dakota's oil industry and Keystone...

              That's a large part of why Obama can be down 19 points even while Heitkamp leads by six.

              "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

              by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:00:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  East-west divide (0+ / 0-)

                Do you think there is a chance the dem shift of the eastern half of the state accelerates due to boom of oil types in the west? How is the youth dem/rep divide in the eastern half alone?

                OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

                by aamail6 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:39:37 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  if we could... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sacman701, hankmeister

                  somehow resplit the Dakotas into an East Dakota and West Dakota, East Dakota would be a purple state (perhaps even trending indigo in the near future) with a tendency to send Democrats to Congress. West Dakota would of course be essentially a Wyoming.

                  "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

                  by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 11:25:54 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I have no doubt in Heitkamp's prowess (0+ / 0-)

                And I fully expect her to greatly overperform Obama. But Obama don't see a way for Obama to come as close in North Dakota as he did in 08.

                •  Well the polls... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  have tended to be around the 55-35 range. That leaves 10% undecided. If those people had visceral dislike of Obama they wouldn't be undecided. I think Obama is actually likely to get the majority of them, so I think he'll manage the low 40s. he had less than 45% last time, so he'll probably underpeform 2008, but not embarassingly so...

                  "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

                  by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 11:24:01 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Pryor is strong (0+ / 0-)

      There are some Democrats that have the ability to win by blowout margins in Arkansas still. Bebee and Pryor are two of the.

      Remember, Democrats still control the state legislature even after facing voters in 2010

    •  AR-Sen Depends on The Outcome Of the 2012 Prez... (0+ / 0-)

      ....election.  If Obama wins, Pryor or whoever the Democrat is a sure loser.  If Romney wins, Pryor or whoever the Democrat is wins easily.  Ditto for LA, WV, MT, and possibly even AK.

  •  Todd Akin is a plagerist! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs, Remediator

    Those are the lyrics to "Free for all" by Ted Nugent.

    I would tip you, but the man took away my tips.

    by Tortmaster on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:33:26 AM PDT

  •  Claire has to get reelected (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    this just in

    Just look at the trio of idiots running against her.  If she doesn't win then I will wonder what made Missouri turn into Mississippi.
    I hope this Todd Akin ad gives the people of suburban St Louis a good look at the Congressman they kept reelecting over and over again.

    •  it's always been mississippi (5+ / 0-)

      Except for the big metropolitan areas Mo has gotten pretty red the last 2 decades. Abortion is a big reason, also the white people in Mo really hate obama.
      If Claire doesn't lose I think the democrats may just lose the seat in Nebraska. She has tons of money so when she has an opponent it will get closer but her only chance is big turnout in the urban areas.

      •  Missouri (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FriedmanIsDead

        is the ONLY place in the nation where another white person has felt free to make what I considered a casually racist remark to me in conversation (we were strangers).

        A white acquaintance who is originally from the St. Louis area wasn't surprised at all when I mentioned the episode to him.

        •  I'll agree with you 100% (6+ / 0-)

          Happens to my girlfriend all the time at her workplace.  These folks literally think that every white person in America agrees with them.  She gets political emails, racist comments, racism towards Obama, hispanics and latinos on a daily basis. FYI, she works in Kansas City.  Most of her coworkers live out in the sticks, but work in the city.  

          White folks that live out in the country around here casually use racial epithets all the time.  There is a lot of deep seated racism in this state.  The only thing that keeps MO a "toss-up" is Kansas City and St Louis.  Without those cities, the '08 election is something like 75-25, McCain over Obama.  

          If you want to be progressive in MO and live outside of KC or STL, you essentially have to do it in hiding.  If you put an Obama sticker on your car you are asking for trouble.  Almost got run off the road on more than one occasion.  Been cursed at, had stuff thrown at the car. You name it.  The conservatives down here are completely unreasonable people.

          During the '08 campaign we had to deal with several very confrontational/adversarial people when going door-to-door for the Obama campaign.

          This is just a sample of the type of stuff you deal with in Redneckistan.  

          "An enlightened zeal for the energy and efficiency of government will be stigmatized as the offspring of a temper fond of despotic power and hostile to the principles of liberty." Alexander Hamilton, Fed. Paper No.1

          by FriedmanIsDead on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:54:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not sure Missouri has gotten that much (0+ / 0-)

        redder so much as it has always been kind of red or better yet slightly pink, small counties included.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:57:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          This state has always been far redder than everyone wants to think.  Our propensity as a bellweather is almost certainly due to voter turnout in KC and STL.  If enough people from those metro areas are fired up for the Democrat then MO goes blue for a particular election.  If the KC and STL residents are indifferent or aren't fired up for you then MO goes to the GOP.

          The key to winning MO is maximum turnout in areas like KC, STL and to a lesser degree Columbia/Jeff City.  The rest of the state is essentially a waste of resources in my opinion for progressives.  

          Just my two cents.

          "An enlightened zeal for the energy and efficiency of government will be stigmatized as the offspring of a temper fond of despotic power and hostile to the principles of liberty." Alexander Hamilton, Fed. Paper No.1

          by FriedmanIsDead on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:57:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Claire has serious problems (0+ / 0-)

      ...she's been playing this blue-dog, fake Republican for so long that most progressive folks here can't stand her.  No Republican from MO is going to vote for her because Obama is on the ballot.  She would probably be polling better if she would just hitch her horse on Obama and try to explain herself instead she just looks desperate.

      I live just south of Kansas City on the edge of conservative hell and the hatred for Dems and all things Obama here is staggering.

      "An enlightened zeal for the energy and efficiency of government will be stigmatized as the offspring of a temper fond of despotic power and hostile to the principles of liberty." Alexander Hamilton, Fed. Paper No.1

      by FriedmanIsDead on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 09:43:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Progress for Washington Mailers (0+ / 0-)

    There are two equally plausible and likely explanations for the consistent spending on the mailers. Either they have a payment plan with their mail consultant of x equal payments for a total of y spending on mail or, more likely, they smartly chose a target universe of voters that they think they can move with their message and the cost to mail to that universe is $21,328.38. Then they just keep bombing that universe until they have penetration.

  •  Re: Todd Akin.... (4+ / 0-)

    OMG.
    And people will vote for this guy?
    Just OMG.

    I think, therefore I am........................... Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose....AKA Engine Nighthawk - don't even ask!

    by Lilyvt on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:42:32 AM PDT

  •  You forgot about today's MI-11 Bombshell!! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    megisi, Amber6541, stevenaxelrod

    Nancy Cassis REFUSES TO SUPPORT Kerry Bentivolio if he does win the GOP primary!

    Trust me, the MI-11 saga out-weirds any other race this cycle. Here's a hint: MI-11 is Thad McCotter's district (or was, until he resigned a few weeks ago).

  •  Tim Cullen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    Cullen is far from the most progressive member of the WI Senate Dem caucus, but he's no blue dog either. He joined the other D Senators when they decamped to Illinois, and he supported the recall of Walker. Progressives probably have better things to do than to primary him.

  •  Todd Akin: that Word Salad has too much cheese. (6+ / 0-)

    "There is just one way to save yourself, and that's to get together and work and fight for everybody." ---Woody Guthrie (quoted by Jim Hightower in The Progressive Populist April 1, 2012, p3)

    by CitizenJoe on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:49:39 AM PDT

  •  I can't handle... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, Xenocrypt

    another zany ad from Todd Akin or the Sarahs until I'm fully through enjoying the zaniness of Rick Berg's angry grandmas ad, which I now, for better or worse, can recite word for word from memory, complete with accents...

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 06:57:30 AM PDT

  •  That Adkin ad is just Creepazoid City. /nt (0+ / 0-)
  •  FL-SEN - Anecdotal report. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, stevenaxelrod

    I almost never watch TV, and especially not network TV, but I've been watching the Olympics a lot recently.  There is a Chamber of Commerce ad against Bill Nelson that is running in HEAVY circulation here in Tampa, on par with either presidential campaign if I had to guess.  It is a nasty negative ad demagogueing on HCR, with ominous tones, black and white photos, and an evil voice repeatedly saying "BBiillll Nneellssoon did ... [insert evil, communist yet simultaneously fascist thing]."

    Nothing at all pro-Nelson.  In fact, I don't think I've ever seen anything pro-Nelson, although again I don't watch much TV.  He's getting hit hard with no response that I know of, which may explain his slide in the polls, which I am now convinced is real.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:02:39 AM PDT

  •  NC-7 is GOP vs DINO (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    McIntyre has not voted with the dems on any issues of importance to us. He is one of the few remaining Blue Dogs, and actually has Republican support.

    'Conservatives for Mike'

    He's doubled down to appease the Tea Party, but of course that isn't stopping the attack ads that label him as a 'liberal soshalist communist'

    I won't vote for him. I'd rather give up the seat for 2 years and get someone who is a REAL Democrat into the seat.

    If he does win this fall, I can see him switching parties. Of course he does not have the guts to do it before the election. He's a coward and needs to go.

  •  'I'm Todd Akin and ... (3+ / 0-)

    ... me, God, the Flame of Liberty and those patriotic hats you make out of blue yarn and Budweiser cans approve this message.'

  •  mo primary today (0+ / 0-)

    The main race I have been seeing stuff on is the lt.  governor one. Probably won't even vote in that as there are at least two or three I would be happy to vote for in the general.  I completely forgot about it until I walked by the courthouse. There were vote here signs and I thought "oh. Today is Tuesday isn't it?"
    Will vote later today even if it is an empty ballot. There might be something I would otherwise miss.
    Still mad from eight years ago I didn't get the chance to vote against mccaskill in the gubernatorial primary.

  •  Lois Frankel (FL-22) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    Her first ad was kind of odd on first viewing, but the more I saw of it (it ran quite a bit on the cable news channels here, not sure if it ran on the local stations) the more I liked it.  She's got a personality.  What I've seen of her positions n the issues so far looks pretty good too.

    “What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?” - Sherwood Rowland

    by jrooth on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:16:37 AM PDT

  •  re: Todd Akin (MO-SEN) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xanthippe2

    "A Little Sidestep":
    "I assure you, and I mean it, now who says that I don't speak out as plain as day ..."
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    "Curiouser and curiouser!"

    by TechBob on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:34:54 AM PDT

  •  Best comment from the Akin thread: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, dufffbeer, xanthippe2
    Oh, my akin head. What twaddle.

    Only thing more infuriating than an ignorant man is one who tries to make others ignorant for his own gain. Crashing Vor

    by emmasnacker on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 07:43:32 AM PDT

  •  "Own what you earn". Sheesh. (3+ / 0-)

    If there is one thing that summarizes the problems facing America (and so many other countries) it's that most people do not own what they earn. They work hard to earn the decent paycheck which they deserve but often much of that money is stolen away by higher-ups in the business. And the Tea Partiers and others of that ilk actually think it's the government that is responsible for the theft. They are blinded by their ideology and obsessions.

  •  PPP CT-Pres (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, stevenaxelrod

    "Romney's up 47-40 on Obama with independents in Connecticut"

    Wow, that's not good... bad sample I hope?  I've seen a few Obama ads here in CT during the Olympics, hopefully we get a few more...

    I think if all states were being shown campaign ads, Obama would be ever farther ahead nationally.  The ads are very effective and really push back on the right-wing media narrative that's been in force for the past few years.  It's odd to see Obama outperforming in swing states versus some of the normally strong Dem states (like CT).

  •  Craziest ad? MNSen laughs derisively in your face (0+ / 0-)
  •  my read on the Akin ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    is that they were going for an "oratorical" sounding style and the rapid edits (I am not watching that a second time to count) were not well done....I think they made that ad quickly and cheaply and the editing strikes me as similar to how a radio spot for a local car dealer or whatever will edit out all the natural/conversational gaps in between sentences; the idea being to shave a few seconds off the ad in order to save a few bucks on airtime.

    I wonder how many takes were necessary for Akin to get thru all that....with all the edits, it gets tough to match inflection within each sentence upon repeated takes.

    Views Differ On Shape Of Planet

    by nota bene on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:53:38 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for viewing "all of those ads (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, bumiputera, xanthippe2, MBishop1

    so that we don't have to", and all of the reading you do so you can give us the latest information from all over the country.

    Keep up the good work.  These Election Diaries are on my daily must read list.

    Mother Teresa: "If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other."

    by Amber6541 on Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 08:55:32 AM PDT

  •  Todd Akin's ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, nota bene

    Is pure Missouri speak south of Jefferson City

    A church on very corner  

    Stars and Stripes on every pulpit

  •  Could slaves own what they earn? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer, stevenaxelrod

    Granted, Missouri was not yet a state when the Constitution was written. But once it joined the Union, it rather famously held that many of its residents could NOT own what they earn or speak freely.  

  •  "Grayson takes the time to randomly say..." (0+ / 0-)

    Grayson's revelation about teaming with Republican Ron Paul to audit the Fed was not random. It was cerebrally calculated.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site