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The Pittsburgh Post Gazette has an early release of the Quinnipiac polls for Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.  No internals available, but Obama leads in each state, by a margin of 6 in Ohio, 6 in FL and 11 in PA.

Great news to be sure.  Compared to last month's poll, Obama is up +2 in FL, +5 in PA and -3 in OH.  

Last month, these polls were somewhat dismissed because the OH poll was thought to be too optimistic, FL too unreliable due to wide variance with Q's May poll, and the June economic data suggested a slow down in Q2.

Well with Q2 behind us and 2 months of summer also in the rear view mirror, the polling is telling us something:  Obama remains very competitive in swing states.

I would also note a few other observations:

- Romney had a bad July, despite his campaign's statements to the contrary.  He was unable to take advantage of a bad Q2 to focus on the economy.  He got mired in Bain, taxes and the quixotic world tour where he was known more for insults and faux pas than statesmanship.  Look for him to name a VP a week or two before the convention to generate good press coverage and amplify the message.  

- Obama is for real in OH.

- Obama looks to be up by a solid low single digit margin in FL.  He has led in 8 out of the last 11 polls (dating back to June 1) and 10 out of the last 15 polls (dating back to April 1). Q aligns with SUSA's last poll. One difference with PPP is the AA vote, which Q/SUSA say is around 90-7 Obama, and PPP is something like 84-13

- Though much debated on this site, Bain and taxes seem to have obscured Romney's argument on the economy, where he polls even or slightly better than Obama.

- The tracking polls (Ras and Gallup) are not providing an accurate picture of what is happening in this election.  

http://www.post-gazette.com/...

Originally posted to khyber900 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 02:01 AM PDT.

Also republished by DKos Pennsylvania.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Good. (7+ / 0-)

    With margins like that, Obama can win those states even with Republicans doing all they can to prevent Democratic voters from voting.

    Tipped and recced.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 02:11:14 AM PDT

  •  I saw a poll yesterday showing Obama leading... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    by a single point 48/47 in Florida. (PPP)

    I've always been skeptical about Quinnipiac when they've been unfavorable so I guess I have to be skeptical when they're favorable as well. lol

    (but I'll take the good news)

    Thanks for the diary.

    "That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history." ~ Aldous Huxley

    by markthshark on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 02:24:32 AM PDT

  •  Is there a threshold (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Leo Flinnwood, MKSinSA, LI Mike

    for how much lawbreaking there has to be or how "incompetently" an election has to be run before a court would invalidate the result and require a do-over? Or is there no such threshold, so that all the Republicans have to do is get away with it?

    Government and laws are the agreement we all make to secure everyone's freedom.

    by Simplify on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 02:42:04 AM PDT

  •  Quinnipiac seems to be an outlier (0+ / 0-)

    My impression is that it tends to be more favorable to Obama than most of the other polls, most of the time. Anyone know about the methodology the use that might explain this?

  •  Adding these to the large mix... nice! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    This solidifies the positive outlook (at the moment anyway) for Obama in FL and OH.  

  •  These numbers (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    litho, SoCalLiberal, MBishop1, TofG, itskevin

    imply an Obama lead of about 7 points.  His PA number here is almost exactly the same as his 2008 number, and the Ohio and Florida numbers are BETTER than his 2008 numbers.  

    The Ohio number is pretty close to what the We Ask America poll found in Ohio, and the Florida number is very close to the SurveyUSA number here, though different from the PPP poll yesterday.  The PA number is different from the Suquehanna (sp?) poll, but that pollster has leaned right in the last two elections.

    These numbers let us ask if the battle in close states suggests a larger overall win than anyone is guessing right now.  There is evidence in the State 2000, 2004 and 2008 polling that close state polling at this phase is more predictive than either national polling or state polling (which makes sense, because the race is engaged earlier there).

    If these numbers are close to right it is close to game over - and once again a Presedential race would have broken in August.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 03:53:27 AM PDT

  •  Link to the poll (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    Go to page 6: by about 50-40 in each state, people believe that Romney's business background was too focused on profits and is not the right kind of experience.

    The Bain attacks in this poll have clearly drawn real blood. What should be a strength is now a weakness.   Rovian, to be sure.

    Also, expectations on the economy: more think it is improving or will imrpove than think the economy is stalled.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 04:00:32 AM PDT

  •  But, but, but "some Democrats" thought Obama (6+ / 0-)

    was being too mean with his attacks on Bain! I thought pundits were paid to be smarter and more informed! Attacking Romney on Bain isn't working in Ohio, I mean they polled Ohio 48 hours after he started and it didn't show! We need instant results, it's not like a constant attack on an issue ever works!

    (yes I enjoy snark with my morning coffee!)

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 04:13:02 AM PDT

  •  Unfortunately, probably outliers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jec

    I liked the looks of the polls until I saw this question:

    Did you vote for Barack Obama, John McCain, or someone else?
    Obama McCain Someone else DK/NA
    FL 53 40 4 3
    OH 53 38 5 4
    PA 54 40 3 3

    Obama won Florida by 3, Ohio by 5 and PA by 11, so it appears to be a very friendly Obama sample in FL and OH.

    •  Of course, asking who people voted for (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, Rooe, rja, itskevin

      in previous elections isn't the most reliable. Sometimes, people don't want to admit voting for the loser.

      In this poll, 3%-5% claimed to have voted for "someone else," when all three states only had 1% "other" vote in 2008. Then there are 3%-4% who claim they don't even know who they voted for, which sound like Republican voters to me.

    •  True, but this is a poll of Likely Voters while (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      the others have mostly been Registered Voters.

      I'm don't know how they are screening for that. It does seem to go against the edge in enthusiasm the GOP seems to hold in most other polls but again not many of those are Likely Voters.

      It could be that Romney is just so damned unlikeable that when LV is incorporated it becomes apparent that he can't get his folks to the polls. That wouldn't surprise me at all as I've been predicting a blowout since Romney got the nomination.

    •  I think I agree (0+ / 0-)

      looking at the numbers in more detail, It had more democrats polled (42-36-20, 42-35-20, 46-40-11) in FL, OH, PA respectively among Dem-Rep-Ind and mostly women (54-46, 52-48, 52-48), which favors Obama.

      Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site: http://www.learninglover.com, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

      by LEARNINGlover on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:49:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I like what I see (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    about the strongly supporting Obama.

    Its at (65, 60, 59) in FL, OH, PA respectively. Compare that to (49, 42, 41) in those same states for Romney. Thats a big gap, and its further in line with the option that people aren't voting for Romney, but against Obama. But that also means that some of the number that "like with reservations" can probably swing Obama's way.

    I may be being too optimistic, but I really feel like the more people get to know Romney, the less they'll like him and it goes beyond personality. Right now people don't like him because of his gaffes, but I think once we convince people of what his direction for America is, I think this will become more and more of an obvious choice.

    Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site: http://www.learninglover.com, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

    by LEARNINGlover on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:30:11 AM PDT

  •  also (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    Look at these numbers
     - For who cares about people's needs Obama wins: (55, 55, 58) to (42, 38, 39)
     - For the economy, its a tie (45, 46, 48) to (47, 45, 44)
     - For health care, Obama wins (50, 48, 51) to (42, 42, 41)
     - For national security, Obama wins (48, 50, 50) to )44, 41, 40)

    And even the question that I thought (think) people don't care about, releasing taxes goes Obama's way - with (53, 51, 54) percent of people saying candidates should release multiple years.

    Another interesting part of this poll is that it seems that it was taken by mostly moderate democrats and conservative republicans, with a large number of people in the 45-64 age group.

    Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site: http://www.learninglover.com, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

    by LEARNINGlover on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:45:49 AM PDT

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