The Pittsburgh Post Gazette has an early release of the Quinnipiac polls for Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. No internals available, but Obama leads in each state, by a margin of 6 in Ohio, 6 in FL and 11 in PA.
Great news to be sure. Compared to last month's poll, Obama is up +2 in FL, +5 in PA and -3 in OH.
Last month, these polls were somewhat dismissed because the OH poll was thought to be too optimistic, FL too unreliable due to wide variance with Q's May poll, and the June economic data suggested a slow down in Q2.
Well with Q2 behind us and 2 months of summer also in the rear view mirror, the polling is telling us something: Obama remains very competitive in swing states.
I would also note a few other observations:
- Romney had a bad July, despite his campaign's statements to the contrary. He was unable to take advantage of a bad Q2 to focus on the economy. He got mired in Bain, taxes and the quixotic world tour where he was known more for insults and faux pas than statesmanship. Look for him to name a VP a week or two before the convention to generate good press coverage and amplify the message.
- Obama is for real in OH.
- Obama looks to be up by a solid low single digit margin in FL. He has led in 8 out of the last 11 polls (dating back to June 1) and 10 out of the last 15 polls (dating back to April 1). Q aligns with SUSA's last poll. One difference with PPP is the AA vote, which Q/SUSA say is around 90-7 Obama, and PPP is something like 84-13
- Though much debated on this site, Bain and taxes seem to have obscured Romney's argument on the economy, where he polls even or slightly better than Obama.
- The tracking polls (Ras and Gallup) are not providing an accurate picture of what is happening in this election.