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Leading Off:

WI-Sen: PPP's new poll of the Wisconsin GOP primary confirms what We Ask America saw earlier this week: a surge for ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. Businessman Eric Hovde remains in the lead at 28, while Neumann is tied with ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson at 25. That's a remarkable turnaround for Neumann, who was at just 15 in PPP's early July poll, which represented a 10-point drop for him after Hovde got into the race. But now Hovde, who was at 31 last time, is slipping, despite his lavish spending. So is Thompson, who stood at 29 in PPP's prior survey but is now badly suffering among self-described conservatives. There are still two weeks left and this race is still anybody's game. Democrats just have to hope that Neumann, the candidate we'd most like to face, still has enough momentum left to carry him over the finish line.

And if Neumann can pull off the unlikely upset, he may wind up having the Club for Growth to thank. Fresh off their impressive effort powering Ted Cruz to victory in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, the Club is now airing a new ad that squeezes in attacks on Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson, then praises Neumann as "Wisconsin's most conservative congressman in decades." There's no word on the size of the buy yet, but the CfG will have to file an IE report soon, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go big.


FL-Sen: How do you like them beignets? Former Gov.—and former Republican—Charlie Crist is coming out for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in his race against GOP Rep. Connie Mack. Not only does Crist plan to donate to Nelson, but he said he'd also appear at a Wednesday fundraiser for the incumbent, headlined by none other than Bill Clinton. Pretty remarkable stuff, considering that Crist himself ran for the Senate as a Republican (before becoming an independent) just a cycle ago. Could this be a prelude to a long-awaited (and hoped-for-by-many) full-blown party switch? We'll have to see!

Meanwhile, Nelson is out with his first ad of his re-election campaign, a cookie-cutterish spot in which the announcer crams in both some basic bio information (he's been married for 40 years) and some of Nelson's priorities and accomplishments ("he exposed the lies of BP and stood up to the insurance companies and Wall Street banks"). The only notable bit is that the list of things the narrator says Nelson's "fought for" includes "faith."

FL-, OH-, PA-Sen: Quinnipiac included Senate head-to-heads with its trio of new swing state polls released on Wednesday, and PPP also published its new Florida Senate numbers as well. PPP shows a much tighter race: They have Dem Sen. Bill Nelson up 45-43 over Connie Mack, while Q gives Nelson a more comfortable 47-40 lead. Quinnipiac continues to show Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Josh Mandel (at 51-39, though that's tightened up since June), while Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey has widened his edge over Republican Tom Smith (to 55-37). Click through for all the numbers, including trendlines and Florida primary results, as well as our analysis, at Daily Kos Elections.

HI-Sen: The University of Hawaii Professional Assembly (aka the faculty union) is spending another $22K on TV for Democrat Ed Case.

IN-Sen: Okay, this shit's hilarious. Well, except for the part about the judge feeling threatened—that's not cool at all. But the moran Republican tracker? Yes, very funny.

MI-Sen: The past few days have brought a pair of new polls out of the state of Michigan, which paint slightly different pictures of the state of play in the GOP primary to challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. EPIC-MRA has longtime frontrunner Pete Hoesktra with a solid 51-27 lead over charter schools head Clark Durant, with a couple of Some Dudes languishing in the low single digits. The local firm didn't even bother with polling Durant in the general election, but they found Stabenow thumping Hoesktra pretty well, with a 49-35 lead.

Meanwhile, another set of numbers from the consortium of Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting on the Senate primary paint a picture of a less certain electorate. They give Hoesktra the lead as well, but only by a 40-24 margin. That's actually more consistent with EPIC-MRA than on first blush: Before EPIC pressed undecideds, their numbers had it Hoekstra 40, Durant 22. This would hint at a reservoir of soft support for Hoesktra when all is said and done.

FMW/Baydoun also checked out the general election, and they found that Durant actually matches up better with Stabenow than does Hoesktra. Both trail, but Durant loses by eight points (51-43), while Hoesktra would fall by ten (53-43). This is the first poll in recent memory to make the case that Durant is "more electable" than the better-known Hoekstra.

On the paid media front, Saul "Jackal God of the Afterlife Anubis" Anuzis keeps pouring in money to help Clark Durant win the GOP primary. His super PAC, Prosperity for Michigan, has added another $140K (see here and here) to keep airing ads on Durant's behalf. (Steve Singiser & David Nir)

MO-Sen: Hmm. Dave Catanese says he's seen some mystery poll of the Missouri GOP Senate primary which shows a very bunched up race, with John Brunner at 29, Todd Akin at 27, and Sarah Steelman at 25. No further details are available (except that this survey wasn't taken for any of the three Republican campaigns), but PPP will be polling here soon.

NM-, VA-, WI-Sen: Politico's Maggie Haberman (who does a good job keeping track of this sort of stuff) reports that the DSCC has made new reservations for fall TV time in three states: $2.9 mil in Wisconsin, $1.3 mil in New Mexico, and $1 mil in Virginia. The latter two add on to existing reservations.


AZ-01: Here's a little hint, because we just saw this a day ago: If you conduct an internal poll for a House race but come back with totally implausible presidential election numbers, either keep those out of your memo (shady but smart) or just don't release the poll at all (honest). If you insist on providing absurd Obama-Romney head-to-heads, though, then any right-thinking analyst is just going to dismiss your poll entirely, which is what happened with that joke poll from GOPer Randy Altschuler in NY-01 on Tuesday.

Arizona Republican Jonathan Paton doesn't seem to understand this lesson, though. His new survey, from North Star Opinion Research, has Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama by an absolutely insane 58-35 margin in the 1st District. John McCain won here in 2008 by a 51-48 spread. So we're meant to believe that a +3 McCain district has now turned into a +23 Romney district? That's just not possible, and it deals a serious blow to any credibility the House toplines—which still manage to show Dem ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick beating Paton 46-43—might have.

AZ-02: Democrat Ron Barber, the newest member of the House of Representatives, just won a big special election last month but nevertheless has to go before voters once again this November. Fortunately for him, the new AZ-02 is bluer than the old AZ-08 where he first ran. On top of that, his new internal poll (from GQR) shows him up a healthy 53-40 over Republican Martha McSally. And despite the barrage of attacks against him during the special, Barber's favorables stand at 47-28. McSally is predictably little-known, with just 42% name rec.

GQR also included a very teeny (n=200) test of the Democratic primary, where state Rep. Matt Heinz is trying to unseat Barber despite his very short tenure. The margin of error is huge, but it doesn't really matter: Barber's up by a 77-13 spread, well outside of the MoE. He also has 81% favorables among Dems.

AZ-09: If you've felt that the Democratic primary in Arizona's new 9th District has been a busy contest between welterweights, while the GOP side has remained a surprisingly somnolent bantamweight affair, you're not alone. Roll Call's Abby Livingston profiles the race and finds that local Democrats are experiencing a bit of an "embarrassment of riches" (well, not counting Andrei Cherny), while Republicans "admit they do not have a good handle on the race." GOP operatives do seem to expect that former Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker will be their nominee, though, while the Dem field is much more wide open.

CA-09: With the flurry of California polls that have recently been released, perhaps Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney wanted to pre-empt anything his Republican opponent might have in the works—after all, in the battle of dueling internals, it's always better to be first. In any event, McNerney's new survey, from Lake Research, has him up 49-33 over law student Ricky Gill. What's more, the presidential head-to-heads make sense: Obama leads Romney 53-38 (he beat McCain 56-41).

CA-10: Republican Rep. Jeff Denham is out with what I believe are his first TV ads of the cycle, both of which feature really, really poor production values—almost comically anachronistic. In case you care, one ad is a bio spot that mentions his military service and the fact that he grows almonds (pronounced like "ammonds" by the narrator). The second ad builds on that second point, as he talks about the importance of making water available to farmers.

CA-44: If you've been following this story, you won't be surprised in the least:

The House Ethics Committee called for the full chamber to reprimand Rep. Laura Richardson on Wednesday, accusing the California Democrat of breaking federal law, violating House rules and obstructing the committee's investigation.

In an unusually harsh report [PDF], the panel found that Richardson flouted the law by "improperly using House resources for campaign, personal, and nonofficial purposes; by requiring or compelling her official staff to perform campaign work; and by obstructing the investigation of the Committee ... through the alteration or destruction of evidence, the deliberate failure to produce documents responsive to requests for information and a subpoena, and attempting to influence the testimony of witnesses."

Richardson faces fellow Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn in November, a repeat of their June matchup in California's top-two primary. Hahn took 60% of the vote in the primary to just 40% for Richardson, but because the top two vote-getters regardless of party advance to the general election, they have to face off again. Needless to say, this latest news dims Richardson's already-slim chances further.

CT-05: Democrat Elizabeth Esty emphasizes the endorsement she just received from the Register Citizen of Litchfield County. (A 2010 NYT article said the paper's print circulation is just 8,000.) Meanwhile, the super PAC that's backing Dem Dan Roberti, New Directions for America, is throwing down $142K more on TV advertising, on top of the $132K they've already put in.

FL-09: Looks like the House Majority PAC is joining in with ex-Rep. Alan Grayson's efforts to ratfuck John Quinones in the GOP primary. They're spending $13K on mailers attacking him (and Grayson's been running radio ads doing the same); I'm sure Democrats would prefer to face weirdo attorney Todd Long.

FL-18: GOP freshman Allen West, in his latest TV ad, insists that we must "keep our promises to America's seniors" but that "everything else is on the table" when it comes to cutting spending. A Patrick Murphy press release explains why this is so comical:

The claim stands in direct opposition to the Congressman's own words, having recently called Social Security Disability "a form of modern-day slavery" and vocally supporting the Ryan Budget Plan that turns Medicare into a voucher system.
And while we mentioned West's previous ad as well, I was unaware of this detail:
In his July ad "Opportunity," West touted his experience as a high school teacher, despite the fact that he left after only nine months following an alleged altercation with a student; he later said that leaving to become a defense contractor in Afghanistan was a more "enjoyable experience."
HI-02: Democrat Tulsi Gabbard has a new ad that's pretty generic, mostly, except for her call to end the war in Afghanistan. I don't think I've seen a lot of Dems take that issue on, but seeing as she served in Iraq as a member of the Army National Guard, she has a little extra cred on this issue.

IA-04: Nope, AFSCME didn't pull a Marlo Stanfield and insist on going solo: They re-joined Proposition Joe and Stringer Bell the House Majority PAC and SEIU to re-up their buy of that pro-Christie Vilsack ad. AFSCME's chipping in another $25K, which means that all told, a hefty $189K has gone into putting this spot on the air.

MI-03: Things are heating up in the MI-03 Democratic primary. Activist Trevor Thomas is out with his first ad, narrated by his mother (who has a notable accent) talking about his various legislative priorities. The spot also goes negative against Democrat Steve Pestka, claiming he "voted against stem cell research and opposed a women's right to choose, even in the case of rape and incest." Thomas's willingness to distort is once again on display, as he also flashes a deliberately truncated quote from Pestka on screen which says (note the ellipsis): "I could have easily become a Republican..." We've mentioned Peskta's full quote before:

"I'm somebody pretty unique in this community—I've been willing to do something really different. I could have easily become a Republican. It would have been much easier because you get a tremendous amount of support. But I would rather retain my independence, which is easier done as a Democrat. And I'm a Democrat because on core issues the Democratic position historically is better."

Meanwhile, Pestka is firing back with a new ad of his own, in which a variety of women praise his commitment to "fight[] for women's rights." (At the very end, one woman says Thomas "is distorting the truth about Steve.") Also of note, VoteVets is increasing their spend on mail for Thomas, adding $49K to the $36K they previously shelled out.

MN-08: Democrat Rick Nolan is out with his first ad, and while he delivers the usual nostrums about protecting Medicare and Social Security and creating American jobs, at least this spot stands out from the pack. That's because of Nolan's energy—the ad uses clips from what must have been a rousing speech before a very friendly audience. Meanwhile, EMILY's List continues to add money to its mail efforts on behalf of Tarryl Clark, their preferred Democrat. Their latest IE report is for $16K worth of lit, and interestingly, it includes some negative stuff about GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack.

MI-11: Liberty for All, the libertarian super PAC that's been backing Kerry Bentivolio in the GOP primary, is attacking Nancy Cassis as a tax hiker in a new TV ad. They're also spending $23K more on mailers and phones, while Freedom's Defense Fund is chipping in $20K on TV.

NY-06: While I don't think any prognosticators view New York's open 6th Congressional District as anything other than a lock for Democrat Grace Meng to hold, you certainly have to consider Republican candidate Dan Halloran one of the most, uh, colorful guys running for Congress this cycle. He's also probably the best get the GOP could hope for, seeing as he's an actual elected official, a very rare thing for Republicans in NYC. (He serves on the city council.) Halloran's also a lying asshole, though, and was responsible for slurring unionized city sanitation workers by falsely claiming they initiated a work slowdown during the infamous Christmas 2010 blizzard. (Of course he had no proof, but the local media breathlessly covered this and I'm sure for many New Yorkers, it's now "fact.") In any event, Politicker's Colin Campbell offers a lengthy profile of Halloran, though I'll certainly be glad to see him lose in November.

OH-14: Roll Call mentions a couple more potential GOPers who could replace retiring Rep. Steve LaTourette on the ballot: Lake County Judge Vince Culotta and ex-state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, whom you may recall ran for the Senate for a while last year before bowing out in favor of Josh Mandel. The article also says that Democrats are still trying to get Some Dude Dale Blanchard to drop out so that they can replace him with someone stronger, but given his obstinacy, I wonder what pressure they can bring to bear.

OH-16: Yet another internal House race poll, this time from Dem Rep. Betty Sutton, who faces a member-vs.-member primary with GOP Rep. Jim Renacci this fall. Her survey, from GBA Strategies, has her up 42-40, with Libertarian Jeffrey Blevins pulling a sizable 12% of the vote. That spread is almost unchanged from last October, when GBA had the race tied at 45 apiece (sans Blevins). The numbers are also very similar to a June poll from Normington Petts which had Sutton leading Renacci 41-38 (Blevins was at a much tinier 4%). So that's now three unanswered Democratic polls in a row.

RI-01: Freshman Rep. David Cicilline, who faces a primary challenge from self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma, is out with his first TV ad. He hits the "constituent service" theme hard, with different Rhode Islanders describing how Cicilline has individually helped them. (One veteran says he "finally got my Bronze Star" after 70 years, thanks to Cicilline's efforts.)

TX-36: If you went to bed at a normal hour on Tuesday night, there was still one Texas runoff uncalled with about 74% of the vote counted, the GOP contest in the new 36th District. Well, there's finally a checkmark, and it's next to ex-Rep. Steve Stockman's name, though the final tally barely shifted as the remaining votes were counted—he beat financial advisor Stephen Takach 55-45. It's a remarkable comeback for Stockman, one of the looniest members of the class of `94... and you know that's saying something. He served only a single term before getting ousted by Democrat Nick Lampson (who himself is attempting a comeback bid this year). Unlike Lampson, though, who faces an uphill fight in the 14th, Stockman is set to cruise to victory in November in this very red district. At least you can look forward to him causing a lot of headaches for his fellow Republicans—and I wouldn't be surprised if he drew a primary challenge next cycle, either.

WA-01: Another day, another $21,328.38 on mailers from Progress for Washington to benefit Democrat Laura Ruderman.

Other Races:

NYC Mayor: How screwed up are Democrats in the New York state Senate? This screwed up: Former Democratic Majority Leader Malcolm Smith (who still serves in the chamber) is reportedly considering a run for mayor of New York City... as a Republican. I have no words.

Grab Bag:

Maps: Here's an interesting study for our map and data heads: The climate change debate has become so polarizing that how you feel about the issue may dictate how hot you actually feel. (Ben Schaffer)

NRSC: It looks like the DCCC isn't the only campaign committee that's having a hard time collecting its member dues. Twelve of the DSCC's 22 largest donors are Democratic senators, while not a single one of the NRSC's 20 biggest givers are Republican senators. This fact has NRSC chair John Cornyn hounding his caucus, but who knows if it'll have any impact.

SEIU: The Service Employees International Union (you know `em best as just SEIU) has been paying salaries for a lot of folks in the ground to help Democrats in various races. Their latest report covers $1.36 million in payroll across a number of contests: MA-, NV- and WI-Sen, as well as CO-03, CO-06, NV-04, and VA-02. I believe it's the first time we've seen them deploy their troops in Colorado's 3rd and Virginia's 2nd.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

    •  Great ad (10+ / 0-)

      I was talking with co-workers today about the political ads, and we agreed that the anti-Obama attack ads generally are of poor quality and unpersuasive, they're too over-the-top doom porn.  But Obama's ads are better, and I pointed out seek to appeal to swing voters.

      This is yet another example of that, and I love it.

      I'm increasingly confident in recent weeks, even if the jobs and unemployment numbers tomorrow show more stagnancy.

      Speaking of which, jobless claims at 365K last week, up from 357K the preceding week but still better than most of the previous couple months.  July was a better month overall for claims, a hopeful sign along with the good ADP private payrolls report yesterday.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 05:48:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The ad contrasts remind me of an inverse '84 (0+ / 0-)

        Of course with a more difficult economy....

        Nevertheless, the incumbent is pushing a positive vision, and the SuperPAC ads (aka Mondale saying "I will raise your taxes") implicitly promise (with all the dour faces) more "doom and gloom".

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 06:24:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I love the prominent TRUMP plane (7+ / 0-)

        2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

        by HarlemUSA on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 06:41:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I always remind people (4+ / 0-)

        of what happened with Dick Cheney in 2004. This is hardly some sort of scientific claim, so if others feel differently, please say so, but if I recall correctly, he was talked up as if he was the Devil. After his debate with John Edwards, people said he won because he had to do little more than not eat a live baby on stage, and the criticisms leveled against him by those on the left would look ridiculous. Which is kind of what happened, no?

        I think we've seen a much larger, longer example of this play out over the course of his presidency. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of President Obama, no matter what end of the ideological spectrum one is coming from, but his critics went so over the top and/or complained about the most irrelevant shit possible. Remember Andy Card bashing his staff for not wearing jackets while in the Oval Office, as if Rahm Emmanuel whipped it out and pissed on a picture of Abe Lincoln or something?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:15:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Brilliant (8+ / 0-)

      I think personalizing the tax cut debate is awesome.  Mitt RMoney is not well liked, even among conservatives.  Everyone knows he's rich and with the history of how he made his money at Bain all over the news (by shipping jobs overseas, bankrupting companies etc), it only makes perfect sense to go this route.

      First it just adds to the 'out of touch elitist rich guy' meme.

      Second it contrasts with Obama's plan on tax cuts and

      Third it explains how it will affect us and benefit him.

      So the Obama team is making RMoney even less likeable and doing it by essentially making the argument that this guy is a money grubbing dick who is looking to fuck you over so he can get some more.


      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 05:48:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You may have noticed that ad cites (10+ / 0-)

      a WSJ journal article on 8/1/12.

      Today is 8/2/12.

      OFA.  Right on top of the news cycle.


      Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
      ¡Boycott Arizona!

      by litho on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 05:59:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Succinct (3+ / 0-)

      Great ad. Succinct and without jargon; personalizes the tax plan, and contrasts Romney with Obama.

      Great great ad!

    •  This is EXACTLY (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jakewaters, The Caped Composer

      what they need to be talking about now.

      As I see it, the absolute worst thing that happens is that people refused to believe he's proposing something like this, which means Romney can (a) change his plans, (b) lie through his teeth, or (b) try to hedge and explain away his position, which isn't going to win him any friends, because in the end, if you are explaining, aren't you losing?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:18:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Jobless claims rise 8K to 365K (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Audrid, MBishop1, askew
    4-week moving average drops to 365.5K

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 06:04:15 AM PDT

    •  That's still not bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Compared to other months even recent months this year.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 06:50:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not at all. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        There's no magic position that will get us to a better labor market, but being 400,000 is usually seen as a good sign.

        Hopefully, the jobs report tomorrow will be even stronger than anticipated. Anything 150,000 is good enough in the political sense (but unfortunately not in the economic sense) to cause Romney some heartburn.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:04:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  apparently, rose less than expected (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Seasonality from the auto plant shutdowns(or lack there of) might be affecting the numbers.

      I think these numbers are better than June, which should suggest a better July jobs numbers, but I've given up predicting those.

    •  Nice.... (0+ / 0-)

      Hopefully this Neumann never comes knocking on our door.

    •  Have you ever read Top of the Rock? (4+ / 0-)

      It's a book by former NBC executive Warren Littlefield about the rise and fall of NBC's Must See TV lineup. I haven't read all of it, but there's a lot of interesting information about a lot of classic shows. For instance, did you know the network wanted John Lithgow to play Frasier Crane instead of Kelsey Grammer, who when he started was sleeping in his car on the Paramount parking lot?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:09:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen Who do we want? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BRog, supercereal

    I think the toughest would be Tommy Thompson.  For some reason, unknown to me, a lot of people around here seem to like him.  Although, I recently saw him in a TV interview and I was quite surprise by how much he had aged.  His appearance can't help his cause.  I don't think Hovde or Neumann will be popular outside of the far right, of course I would have said that about Ron Johnson as well.  I have no Ds to vote for in my district so what is the strategic method for voting in the R primary?

    •  The difference between Hovde and Neumann (5+ / 0-)

      Hovde has money, Neumann doesn't.  Hovde has thrown 4 million dollars, if not more, to win a primary (I could see that shooting to 10-15 million easily if he were fighting for a general election)

      Whereas Neumann has raised only 2 million dollars and is relying on outside groups to make his comeback late in the game.  

    •  Neumann (0+ / 0-)

      Is probably at least less partisan, and more intellectually honest, than Hovde.  Back when he was first elected, he went after Congressional spending, and he did go after senior Republicans who were taking a lot of pork.  In mid-1995, he even tried to get spending in Appropriations Chair Bob Livingston's district cut.  Livingston summoned Neumann to his Hill office to "discuss" Neumann's actions.  The Capitol Hill police were called in, it was so ugly.  Among the things heard from Livingston were "F** you!  Get the f** out of my office!"  Standing up to his own party is a plus for Neumann.  On the other hand, I've read that his personality is such that it would make Ron Johnson seem like a colorful and friendly personality be comparison.

      You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

      by Samara Morgan Dem on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:31:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Careful what you wish for (0+ / 0-)

    >Democrats just have to hope that Neumann, the candidate we'd most like to face, still has enough momentum left to carry him over the finish line.

    In 1966, California Democrats did what they could to help an actor named Reagan with the GOP primary for governor because they thought he'd be easier to beat than his more plausible primary opponent. Anybody remember how that turned out?

    Neumann is scary. I hope he doesn't get anywhere near the nomination.

    •  Have any opinion on who you DO want near the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, LordMike

      nomination?  Eric Hovde, AKA Ron Johnson 2.0 is the equation that beat Russ Feingold big in 2010.  Tommy Thompson is damaged goods but he has a charisma about him (he certainly doesn't act old if you've seen him speak recently) that Neumann lacks.

    •  Thompson, though, is likely more electable (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BRog, The Caped Composer

      Hardly a slam-dunk if nominated, but his record as governor in the 80s and 90s is generally regarded as constructive and effective.  If this seat had been open in 2000 and he'd run then maybe he would have been a slam dunk.

      Neumann, OTOH, has a bunch of votes from his two terms in the House in the 1990s that can easily be used against him.  And if Republicans want to dismiss that as old news, then what other credentials does he have to run on?  He hasn't held office since.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:17:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, then there are races like DE-SEN 2010 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, The Caped Composer

      where Dems clearly benefited from having one GOP candidate has the nominee. Not saying Neumann is like O'Donnell, but I think you can make the case that Dems would rather face him than Hovde or  Thompson.

    •  Wouldn't THAT be a retort (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      for Baldwin to use in a debate against Neumann?

      "Mr. Newmann, I'm still pretty young, but I remember Ronald Reagan. I'm a liberal Democrat, but I liked him and admired him, despite our ideological differences. And sir, I can tell you, you are no Ronald Reagan."

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:20:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oddly enough, there's a more relevant example (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bfen, BRog

      In 1998, Rep. Scott Klug (R-Black Earth, WI) kept his promise not to run for a fifth term that he made back in 1990. This left a D+11 district open, and while Republicans found a decent candidate, they needed every advantage they could get. So they fluffed up an ultra-liberal, openly lesbian Assemblywoman in the Dem primary, and in fact succeeded in doing so. They went on to lose the general election thanks to high student turnout, which heavily favored the Democrat, Tammy Baldwin.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:35:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think we're all familiar (6+ / 0-)

      With the dangers of rooting for particular opponents. But Neumann is simply weaker in the general election than Hovde or Thompson. And if the GOP were to pick up this seat, all of their potentially nominees would be equally bad as senators.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 09:03:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, that's probably true. (0+ / 0-)

        There's more to winning elections than turning out your base, and if there's one state where the supposed leanings of the state don't always give us a victory in recent years, it's Wisconsin. But if our side doesn't get off its collective ass to prevent the SECOND seat from going to the Republicans, I am not sure what the hell to think.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 09:07:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  maybe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        At this point Neumann looks weaker than Hovde, but Neumann has run campaigns before and Hovde hasn't. Hovde would probably be much more likely to make typical rookie mistakes than Neumann would. Also, whatever dirt there is on Neumann probably all came out in his previous campaigns. Hovde may have some skeletons in his closet that we don't know about yet.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 09:19:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly, Mark Neumann is RONALD REAGAN!!!!!! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, redrelic17

      That was exactly my thought!

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 12:40:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Neumann lost . . . (0+ / 0-)

      . . . to Mr. No-Outside-Spending, Feingold, in 1998. It was by a small margin, true, but still, it says something about Neumann as a candidate. This time around, if he lands the nomination, he has to go up against a money tsunami from the "gAyTM." If he couldn't beat Feingold, no way he's beating that!

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 01:40:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Greg Walden (OR-02) is looking to head up the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, supercereal

    NRCC in the next cycle.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 08:55:51 AM PDT

  •  NC from Ras, meh... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Romney 49
    Obama 44
    Romney +5

    Last poll was 47/44

    But, being Ras, probably means an actual 10pt lead for Obama :)

    Gallup tracker is still a 2pt lead for for Obama... it's the little things in life...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 11:41:39 AM PDT

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