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Let me just start out by saying North Carolina is a swing state, and it's here to stay. Some people in the beltway punditry still can't wrap their heads around that. Every legitimate or respectable polling firm (i.e. non-Rasmussen and Ras like) have shown North Carolina as a razor thin race. Either Obama is up 1-3 points, Romney is up 1-3, or in some cases a tie. No can predict exactly who's going to win, cause it's that close. But if Dems didn't think they could win this state, then they wouldn't be having their convention in Charlotte. All that being said this what I think is going to happen in North Carolina in the next four years.

'12 Gubernatorial Race: Walter Dalton v. Pat McCrory

Because Bev Perdue isn't at all popular, the Governor race looks like it's leaning towards a Republican take over, giving the GOP a trifecta in Raleigh for the first time in the history of that state. I think Dalton is going to run a spirited race, but it's McCrory's to lose. Dispite the GOP controlled Assembly being very unpopular among North Carolinians. Pat McCrory may be popular right now, and looks like the betting favorite. He won't be at all once he's sworn in, he'll be a rubber stamp for every right wing bill that is passes out those chambers. The General Assembly approval rating will be more unpopular, McCrory's numbers will start tanking like a stone. And I bet you people in North Carolina are gonna wish they had Dalton, or even Perdue as their Governor.

'14 Senatorial Race: Kay Hagan v. TBD

Kay Hagan will reap the benefits of this. Kin to like what Bill Nelson, and Sherrod Brown are benefiting from thanks to those very unpopular GOP Governors that were elected in that midterm elections in 2010. Lots of close races we still look back on wishing that we had won. In my opinion I don't think Hagan is going to be vulnerable. North Carolina is  a "New South" state and it's demographically becoming diverse by the minute.

I don't know who here opponent going to be, whether it's from the state's congressional delegation, or the state assembly. Which ever one she'll have an easy time highlighting her opponent voting record and stances. NC Republicans in Raleigh and Washington have voted on very extreme legislation. Plus you have the Republican electorate becoming even more conservative, rejecting any Republican who has a stench of "establishment" on him or her. We saw it last cycle in Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware. This year in Indiana, just this week in Texas, and likely Wisconsin being next. You could only imagine how '14 is going to be. No Republican incumbent is safe!

'16 Gubernatorial Race: Pat McCrory v. Roy Cooper

By this time McCrory is going to be up for reelection, and likely will be the heavy underdog. Democrats strongest choice will be the state's Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper. He has been the AG since being elected in 2000, and will win another term, since no Republican wanted to take him on he's running unopposed. Cooper was smart enough not to run, probably foreseeing that McCrory will be much easier to beat in '16 compared to this year. McCrory is going to be like a wounded dog, and even if he do retire instead, whoever the Republican is they're going to be trounced. Hopefully it is McCrory, cause I do want to see Cooper mop up the floor with him throughout the state.

'16 Senatorial Race: Richard Burr v. Janet Cowell

Burr won't be fortunate like he was in '10, when he's going to share the ticket with a unpopular incumbent Governor and/or the GOP nominee. It looks like NC Dems will hold most of the statewide offices this year. Janet Cowell the state treasurer will most likely be the one the DSCC tries to recruit. It looks like she the betting favorite to win reelection. By this time she'll already have won two statewide races under her name, and will have name recognition. By November of that year it will grow even more. Shall she be the nominee, she'll be help by the coattails of Roy Cooper, and the fact that it's a presidential year so turn out will be much higher.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NC is definitely swinging (0+ / 0-)

    Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012.

    •  how much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      you think Romney wins by?

      •  at least a couple percentage points (0+ / 0-)

        If not more

        •  It would be nice for Obama to win (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          North Carolina but I do not see that happening this year. Yeah, it should be close but I expect a Romney win in this state, probably 3-4 points.

          The reason is that Democrats won in 2008 by having extremely high turnout in Durham (won its county by 73,000 votes,) Raleigh (won Wake County by 64,000 votes,) Greensboro, Charlotte (won Mecklenberg County by about 100,000 votes,) Asheville and the heavily African American areas in the eastern part of the state and still won statewide by only 14,000 votes.

          Although more Democrats may have moved into North Carolina since 2008, the turnout probably will not be as high as 2008. African American turnout may reach similar levels but the enthusiasm among the youth vote has dropped so the Research Triangle's turnout should drop a bit and that will be enough to allow Romney to win.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Sun Aug 05, 2012 at 10:15:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Definitely? (0+ / 0-)

      That's a bold prediction. Remember, Obama wasn't expected by many to win NC last time, and his margin was extremely close. I don't think we can "definitely" pick either candidate to win at this point.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Aug 04, 2012 at 08:19:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  T & R'd (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, kleinburger

    We need more attention on the situation in more states.

  •  Obama will win NC by about 2-3 points. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    We Won, MichaelNY

    He is already tied in the polls there (fuck what Rasmussen thinks). Obama's trajectory in the state over June/July was upward in all GOP and Dem leaning polls (until Ras' b.s. poll last week which I don't believe as the last 2 weeks of July were Romney's worst and there is absolutely no way Obama lost ground to Romney over that time period).

    The convention in Charlotte will give Obama a boost.  Enthusiasm for Rmoney will diminish as people realize that he isn't going to win.  North Carolinians will be on balance more optimistic about their economic future than they were in 2011 and will rather side with the winner than the loser on the assumption that Obama won't be that bad for them, and that he would likely be better than Romney if for no other reason that the economy over the next 4 years is more predictable with Obama as President than Rmoney.  Also, Rmoney is not challenging Obama in enough states to force him to abandon the state.  In addition, polling is showing some blips here and there of a lot of working class white voters leaning Obama and distancing themselves from Romney.  Obama's percentage of the white vote will be slightly higher than in 2008 and that will put a ceiling on what Romney can do to get enough votes to win.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 at 06:44:56 PM PDT

    •  It's totally plausible (0+ / 0-)

      It going to be close. Last time he got like 35 percent of the white votes. If he get close to 40 like he did in Virginia and Hispanics turnout being higher than '08 then he'll win NC. You already ready know he's going to get like 97 percent of the black votes so that's not even a question.

      •  I want Obama to win North Carolina (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think he wins Virginia but I don't feel too good about North Carolina. He won NC by only 14,000 votes so this means he has to equal and/or increase 2008 turnout which should be really hard because that was an extremely historic election and Obama won 35% of the white vote in NC because he did well in the Research Triangle and the youth enthusiasm has dropped so I don't think turnout will be high enough in that area.

        Virginia though Obama won with 53% of the vote and the economy is doing well there, he won Virginia by winning suburban independents, African Americans and Hispanic voters which will support him in 2012. He might get less than he did in 2008 but I still predict a 2-4 point victory for him there.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Sun Aug 05, 2012 at 10:19:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think you are too optimistic about Senator Hagan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
  •  Pretty speculative (0+ / 0-)

    Sort of interesting to read, though.

    What do you mean by this?

    Dalton is going to run a humble race
    Humble how? Not boastful?

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sat Aug 04, 2012 at 08:18:13 PM PDT

  •  NC Voter Registration Trends (5+ / 0-)

    Changes from Election Day 2008 to today:

    By party, where voter registration is trending toward 'Unaffiliated':
    D (-112,831)
    R (-9,951)
    L +11,400
    I + 217,633

    This makes NC 43% D, 31% R, and 25% I.

    By race, where voter registration is trending 'brown':
    W +8.272
    B  +44,003
    AI +2,025
    H +27,945
    O +24,007

    This makes NC 72% White, 22% Black, 0.8% American Indian, 1.5% Hispanic, and 3.5% 'Other'.

    Although the margin of registered Democrats over registered Republicans has dropped by 100,000 voters in 4 years, all the growth is happening among Unaffiliated voters who are also 90+% non-white. The old 'Jessecrats' are slowly dying off.

    http://www.ncsbe.gov/...

    This bodes well for Obama and for NC Democrats in November, at least in statewide races. Thanks to gerrymandered districts,  it may be a long climb back for Democrats in Congressional and legislative races.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 at 09:32:15 PM PDT

    •  great insight (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but is that true only GOP voters in NC have droped off by 9,000?

      •  Yes - The Democratic lead in registration (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        has dropped from about 860,000 on Election Day 2008 to about 760,000 now.

        It's not a good trend, but with 217,000 new unaffiliated voters, the vast majority of whom are not white, Democrats should be able to offset their closing margin over the GOP.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 at 10:28:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The drop in Dem numbers may be due (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          to the political reality in NC. Not wishing to be labeled "one of them commie lib dummycrats" by their fellow co-workers and parishoners they may instead
          have chosen to register as an I.
          "Who you, I say, who you voting for, son? You're NOT, I say, you're NOT going to register as a libtard dummycrat are you?"
          "You'll know when I know, Foghorn. I'm registering as an Independent."

          Many a transplanted northern Democrat has moved into NC over the last decade. They may wish to hide their true colors.

          •  Isn't voter registration secret? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kleinburger

            Am I being naive?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Aug 05, 2012 at 02:53:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's not secret but it's pretty hard to look up (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              party registration is public information that can be looked up by interested people. In practice, the only people who really know it though are campaigns that have lists of the party registration of every voter in the state that they use in their voter outreach.

              As to the wider point - I don't think this has anything to do with anti-Democratic feelings. The decline in Democratic registration and the rise in no-affiliation registration is almost certainly just a result of both the continue decline of Demosaur voters who vote Republican 100% of the time but are registered Dem, and the general trend throughout the county toward voters declining to register with either party.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Sun Aug 05, 2012 at 08:03:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Looking at the black and Hispanic growth vs. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      whites, there is clearly some external force at play. Probably OFA. The white growth appears to be mainly organic, with the black and Hispanic populations heavily targeted by outside groups.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 01:32:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Having done voter registration (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in front of the local grocery store, it's easy to stand there and think about which person would be more likely to vote Democratic - and to focus your efforts on minority voters as a result.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 10:03:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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