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I took the 2010 election results, and extrapolated the proportions in the race for Governor at the precinct level, determining the total number of votes each candidate would have received if all voters who were on the roll when the polls opened, plus all voters that registered on Election Day, had voted.

In short, using this method of projection, Mark Dayton would have won election by an additional 61,689 votes over Tom Emmer.

I broke it down further below the fold.

The precincts, legislative districts, and congressional districts are those in effect for the 2010 election. The breakdown of net gain for Dayton and Emmer, by congressional district are:

CD 5: 76,639 in favor of Dayton
CD 4: 38,843 in favor of Dayton
CD 8: 15,691 in favor of Dayton
CD 1: 3,787 in favor of Emmer
CD 7: 7,372 in favor of Emmer
CD 3: 9,228 in favor of Emmer
CD 2: 21,318 in favor of Emmer
CD 6: 27,778 in favor of Emmer
(Totals may not add up due to rounding)

By legislative district, the breakdown of the top 20 (out of 134) for Dayton comes out as follows:

LD 59B: 8,233 in favor of Dayton
LD 61A: 7,792 in favor of Dayton
LD 58B: 7,234 in favor of Dayton
LD 61B: 6,593 in favor of Dayton
LD 60A: 6,193 in favor of Dayton
LD 62A: 6,115 in favor of Dayton
LD 65A: 5,967 in favor of Dayton
LD 60B: 5,610 in favor of Dayton
LD 58A: 5,360 in favor of Dayton
LD 59A: 5,352 in favor of Dayton
LD 65B: 5,230 in favor of Dayton
LD 64A: 5,182 in favor of Dayton
LD 66B: 5,050 in favor of Dayton
LD 07B: 4,989 in favor of Dayton
LD 62B: 4,327 in favor of Dayton
LD 07A: 4,036 in favor of Dayton
LD 66A: 3,947 in favor of Dayton
LD 67A: 3,361 in favor of Dayton
LD 67B: 3,303 in favor of Dayton
LD 64B: 3,063 in favor of Dayton
By county, the breakdown comes out as follows:
HENNEPIN COUNTY: 65,645 in favor of Dayton
RAMSEY COUNTY: 37,313 in favor of Dayton
SAINT LOUIS COUNTY: 18,002 in favor of Dayton
CARLTON COUNTY: 2,100 in favor of Dayton
BELTRAMI COUNTY: 1,907 in favor of Dayton
ITASCA COUNTY: 1,615 in favor of Dayton
MOWER COUNTY: 1,432 in favor of Dayton
RICE COUNTY: 1,426 in favor of Dayton
BLUE EARTH COUNTY: 1,021 in favor of Dayton
WINONA COUNTY: 978 in favor of Dayton
CLAY COUNTY: 907 in favor of Dayton
KOOCHICHING COUNTY: 724 in favor of Dayton
FREEBORN COUNTY: 710 in favor of Dayton
LAKE COUNTY: 671 in favor of Dayton
NICOLLET COUNTY: 664 in favor of Dayton
MAHNOMEN COUNTY: 299 in favor of Dayton
NORMAN COUNTY: 287 in favor of Dayton
STEVENS COUNTY: 261 in favor of Dayton
COOK COUNTY: 244 in favor of Dayton
SWIFT COUNTY: 175 in favor of Dayton
CHIPPEWA COUNTY: 132 in favor of Dayton
KITTSON COUNTY: 132 in favor of Dayton
AITKIN COUNTY: 106 in favor of Dayton
MARSHALL COUNTY: 94 in favor of Dayton
POLK COUNTY: 88 in favor of Dayton
LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY: 85 in favor of Dayton
RED LAKE COUNTY: 77 in favor of Dayton
TRAVERSE COUNTY: 49 in favor of Dayton
BIG STONE COUNTY: 48 in favor of Dayton
POPE COUNTY: 13 in favor of Dayton
PENNINGTON COUNTY: 6 in favor of Dayton
GRANT COUNTY: 11 in favor of Emmer
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY: 29 in favor of Emmer
PINE COUNTY: 32 in favor of Emmer
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY: 59 in favor of Emmer
FILLMORE COUNTY: 62 in favor of Emmer
LINCOLN COUNTY: 62 in favor of Emmer
WATONWAN COUNTY: 67 in favor of Emmer
MURRAY COUNTY: 72 in favor of Emmer
CLEARWATER COUNTY: 75 in favor of Emmer
JACKSON COUNTY: 209 in favor of Emmer
NOBLES COUNTY: 212 in favor of Emmer
RENVILLE COUNTY: 237 in favor of Emmer
WILKIN COUNTY: 252 in favor of Emmer
WASECA COUNTY: 253 in favor of Emmer
FARIBAULT COUNTY: 266 in favor of Emmer
KANABEC COUNTY: 273 in favor of Emmer
COTTONWOOD COUNTY: 279 in favor of Emmer
ROSEAU COUNTY: 302 in favor of Emmer
HOUSTON COUNTY: 333 in favor of Emmer
KANDIYOHI COUNTY: 393 in favor of Emmer
ROCK COUNTY: 435 in favor of Emmer
CASS COUNTY: 437 in favor of Emmer
PIPESTONE COUNTY: 439 in favor of Emmer
HUBBARD COUNTY: 449 in favor of Emmer
MILLE LACS COUNTY: 461 in favor of Emmer
WADENA COUNTY: 468 in favor of Emmer
LYON COUNTY: 550 in favor of Emmer
LE SUEUR COUNTY: 578 in favor of Emmer
SIBLEY COUNTY: 626 in favor of Emmer
TODD COUNTY: 629 in favor of Emmer
WABASHA COUNTY: 629 in favor of Emmer
STEELE COUNTY: 701 in favor of Emmer
MEEKER COUNTY: 732 in favor of Emmer
DODGE COUNTY: 761 in favor of Emmer
BECKER COUNTY: 796 in favor of Emmer
REDWOOD COUNTY: 821 in favor of Emmer
GOODHUE COUNTY: 871 in favor of Emmer
MARTIN COUNTY: 1,001 in favor of Emmer
BROWN COUNTY: 1,021 in favor of Emmer
BENTON COUNTY: 1,108 in favor of Emmer
CROW WING COUNTY: 1,125 in favor of Emmer
MORRISON COUNTY: 1,218 in favor of Emmer
DOUGLAS COUNTY: 1,367 in favor of Emmer
ISANTI COUNTY: 1,493 in favor of Emmer
CHISAGO COUNTY: 1,697 in favor of Emmer
OLMSTED COUNTY: 1,849 in favor of Emmer
OTTER TAIL COUNTY: 2,097 in favor of Emmer
MCLEOD COUNTY: 2,160 in favor of Emmer
STEARNS COUNTY: 3,518 in favor of Emmer
WASHINGTON COUNTY: 3,775 in favor of Emmer
SHERBURNE COUNTY: 4,952 in favor of Emmer
CARVER COUNTY: 5,800 in favor of Emmer
ANOKA COUNTY: 6,405 in favor of Emmer
DAKOTA COUNTY: 6,430 in favor of Emmer
SCOTT COUNTY: 7,277 in favor of Emmer
WRIGHT COUNTY: 7,369 in favor of Emmer
(Totals may not add up due to rounding)

The top 50 precincts in the state by additional margin are:

MINNEAPOLIS W-6 P-04 (CD 5, LD 61A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 1,825 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-6 P-02 (CD 5, LD 61A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 1,436 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-6 P-03 (CD 5, LD 61A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 1,218 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-1 P-05 (CD 4, LD 65A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 1,011 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-07 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 985 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-05 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 964 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-10 P-01 (CD 5, LD 60A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 944 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-06 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 938 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-4 P-03 (CD 4, LD 66B, RAMSEY COUNTY): 915 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-03 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 915 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-03 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 886 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-7 P-08 (CD 5, LD 60A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 866 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-10 P-02 (CD 5, LD 60A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 856 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-8 P-05 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 850 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-10 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 847 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-3 P-06 (CD 5, LD 59A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 807 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-1 P-03 (CD 4, LD 65A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 791 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-07 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 787 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-09 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 768 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-3 P-02 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 760 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-01 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 751 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-3 P-07 (CD 4, LD 64A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 744 in favor of Dayton
DULUTH P-14 (CD 8, LD 07B, SAINT LOUIS COUNTY): 743 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-10 P-06 (CD 5, LD 60B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 724 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-3 P-03 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 720 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-12 P-08 (CD 5, LD 62A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 706 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-4 P-09 (CD 5, LD 58A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 693 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-3 P-04 (CD 5, LD 59A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 692 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-8 P-06 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 692 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-05 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 687 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-4 P-06 (CD 5, LD 58A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 687 in favor of Dayton
NORTHFIELD W-3 P-1 (CD 2, LD 25B, RICE COUNTY): 682 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-4 P-08 (CD 5, LD 58A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 678 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-01 (CD 5, LD 62A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 667 in favor of Dayton
RED LAKE AGENCY PREC (CD 7, LD 02B, BELTRAMI COUNTY): 656 in favor of Dayton
NORTHFIELD W-1 P-2 (CD 2, LD 25B, RICE COUNTY): 650 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-1 P-06 (CD 5, LD 59A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 642 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-5 P-04 (CD 5, LD 58B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 639 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-10 P-07 (CD 5, LD 60B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 637 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-8 P-02 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 628 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-1 P-02 (CD 4, LD 64A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 619 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-9 P-05 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 614 in favor of Dayton
DULUTH P-13 (CD 8, LD 07A, SAINT LOUIS COUNTY): 613 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-7 P-03 (CD 5, LD 60A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 607 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-1 P-10 (CD 4, LD 65A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 599 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-8 P-10 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 597 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-8 P-01 (CD 5, LD 61B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 594 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-2 P-04 (CD 5, LD 59B, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 589 in favor of Dayton
MINNEAPOLIS W-6 P-06 (CD 5, LD 61A, HENNEPIN COUNTY): 588 in favor of Dayton
ST. PAUL W-1 P-08 (CD 4, LD 65A, RAMSEY COUNTY): 584 in favor of Dayton
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Comment Preferences

  •  You are kidding me (0+ / 0-)

    You mean they count the votes in MN-5?  They've been telling me liberal votes don't count.  Somebody tell Amy!

  •  They certainly do (0+ / 0-)

    This projection is to illustrate the impact of voter apathy.

  •  Nice work (0+ / 0-)

    Well done. Yes, the legislative districts have changed and precincts have been redrawn, including the mentioned Minneapolis precincts which have changed substantially, but if you become familiar with the map, you can still tell where the more Democratic areas are. Probably anyone following Minnesota politics knows where Democratic votes come from, but there is it in number so we don't have to just make educated guesses.

    What's telling me something I didn't know is Dayton won CD8 while the Democratic incumbent lost, I think by a similar margin. So a lot of tickets got split, and they voted for the more liberal Democrat for governor and rejected the less liberal Democrat for Congress. A bunch of people voted for a quite liberal governor and a tea party congressman. Like, there must have been thousands in CD1 who voted for the incumbent Democratic congressman, who won fairly easily, but also for the far-right gubernatorial candidate. I saw that when I once did polls over the phone, that there are a bunch of people who don't even consider party or issues when picking a candidate.

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