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Republicans have difficulty anticipating problems. Whether it's how to stabilize a country in the middle-east after over-throwing it's government or realizing that making healthcare be affordable would make U.S. businesses be more competitive they just don't seem to able to plan ahead and see how things are going to play out in the future .

I think this lack of foresight is about to manifest itself in the presidential campaign as Romney has already demonstrated a complete lack of forethought in his tax arrangements. He could have not used tax avoidance schemes or off-shore accounts and he would still be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Romney's pick for the VP position is likely to be someone who has hopes of having a political future in the GOP. Partly because Romney doesn't seem to like any of the other senior GOP nominee contenders (i.e. Newt or Santorum) but also because he needs someone to fire up the GOP base, which Romney must know is lacking in his campaign and it's only the younger candidates (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan etc.) that meet this requirement.

Whoever it is must know that any future career they aspire to have could be devastated if it emerged during the campaign that they were the VP pick of someone who had illegally dodged paying taxes. Even if Romney has done nothing actually illegal and instead has merely done something morally objectionable (e.g. skipped paying the full tithes to his church), then that revelation would still be harmful to any VP's future political career.

So when Romney does make someone the offer of being his VP pick, the conversation is very likely to go like this:

Romney: Do you want to be my vice-president nominee?
Potential VP: What are you hiding in your taxes returns?
Romney: I can't tell you that, if you find out what's in my tax returns you won't want to be my VP pick!
Potential VP: Er, okay then - no I don't want to be your VP nominee
Even when Romney has found someone either dull-witted or desperate enough to be his vice-president nominee, they are going to be put in an impossible position by the most obvious question every journalist will ask them:
Journalist: Has Mitt Romney shown you what he's hiding in his tax returns?
If the VP nominee answers "Yes, but there's nothing in there that should concern anyone" then the journalist has the obvious followup question of why is Romney willing to show you his tax returns but not the American people?

If the VP nominee answers "No" then they would look like a puppet that doesn't have the full trust of the nominee or are so desperate for the VP position that they would take it without being trusted by the presidential candidate. Also, too, the Democrats can run another round of ads saying "Mitt Romney doesn't even want his VP to know his secret tax deals".

So here's the prediction. Romney is still hoping to not reveal his tax returns but would be pressured into releasing them by any serious VP pick. So either:

i) Willard will release his taxes about a week before a serious VP pick is announced.


ii) We are going to see a VP pick that makes the Sarah Palin pick look like a wise and sensible choice. I'm talking Herman Cain levels of derpitude.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    Good, quick, cheap. Choose two.

    by Danack on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 08:09:51 AM PDT

  •  He will pick the Governor of New Mexico. (0+ / 0-)
  •  VP choice will be an empty suit, just like Mitt. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jakewaters, Mannie

    Probably a virtual unknown, like Palin, but less articulate than either Mitt or Sarah. Will it be difficult to find such a person in the Republican rank and file?  NO problem!

    •  I agree on the empty suit but disagree w Mitt's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drmah, iconoclastic cat

      conversation with them on the tax topic.

      They won't ask and he won't tell- The elephants have formed that ring thing that they do with trunks n tails and Mittens response has to be a consistant NOYFB.

      It's worth a couple of bucks to disgruntled former Palin/ McCain staff and the value goes up every hour as we move toward election day.

      My guess is that Mittens holds out on his taxes until he's been brutalized in the fiirst debate.

      He's planning on releasing his 2011 taxes sometime duringn the 11th hour, my guess is that any additional selective  revelations on his earlier taxes will be made at the same time.

      So its a simple economic matter of supply and demand.  The demand is going to remain high until they are supplied.

      The question is will they get outed when the price is right
      or will Mittens make the payoff himself to prevent an early leak and hope that a huge stack of docs released the night before the election is just too confusing to voters.

      In the President's favor it won't matter by then,impressionable  minds will all have been made up, if they aren't already.

      "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

      by jakewaters on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 08:38:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm guessing Kelly Ayotte (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drmah, khyber900

    And she has enough financial/legal troubles to distract from Mitt's.  She's fully capable of spinning the question into a freedom of speech issue while simultaneously implying the questioner is a Democratic operative.

    We do not forgive. We do not forget. The whole world is watching.

    by Tracker on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 08:28:17 AM PDT

  •  Isn't this the obvious question for the VP pick? (0+ / 0-)

    Did you have to show your tax returns as part of the vetting process? How many years worth?
    If someone had to share "x" number of years of tax returns to be vetted to be VP, don't you think someone running for President should do the same?

    Of course maybe Team Mittens will actually anticipate that and only ask for 2 years worth of tax returns from potential VP candidates!

    And that presumes our media would actually think to ask such an obvious line of questions!

    Blue is blue and must be that. But yellow is none the worse for it - Edith Sidebottom

    by kenwards on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 08:49:30 AM PDT

  •  I think it will be Ayotte or Portman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mannie, a2nite

    Rubio is too junior and people would question the readiness for the office.  Jindal has a record in Louisiana that is not enviable.  Mitt might also be concerned about losing some votes from his base for having no white protestant Christians on the ticket.  Might be too much change for the GOP to handle and may actually confirm the demographic change that many GOP voters fear.

    Ayotte is more of a natural fit.  Not too old.  From a state where she might arguably make a difference.  She'll definitely be viewed as an intellectual upgrade from Palin.  Not too competitive with Romney.  Might give some female voters an incentive to take a second look at Mitt. Not likely to offend the GOP base. Lacks experience and national security gravitas.

    Portman is the best fit from the perspective of experience to help steer the ship.  Kinda boring, won't inspire any other groups, but he won't alienate the present GOP coalition either.  Not likely to have much of an impact in Ohio but it can't hurt to have an Ohioan on the ticket.

    Pawlenty seems too competitive for Romney's taste.  Would be like Kerry-Edwards where post-GOP convention, Edwards basically campaigned for himself.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 10:01:18 AM PDT

  •  Danack - here is the answer (0+ / 0-)

    The VP pick will be allowed to have an expert(s), just like McCain, to review the Romney returns. McCain himself never actually saw the returns and the returns never left the office of PriceWaterhouseCoopers in Boston. The same will be true with the VP pick. The VP candidate himself will never see the returns and wouldn't understand them even if he did look at them.  

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 10:48:31 AM PDT

  •  It's going to be a game changer, all right (0+ / 0-)

    It's going to be Joe Lieberman!  Harnessing that famous Joementurm to Mittmentum. Feel the charisma!

    You read it first here.

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