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Leading Off:

CT-05: Yowza! The flame war between Dan Roberti and Elizabeth Esty in the Democratic primary just got a lot hotter. The super PAC linked to Roberti's dad, well-connected lobbyist Vince Roberti, is out with a scathing new TV spot that blisters Esty explicitly from the left. Says the narrator: "In the legislature, Elizabeth Esty voted against the Democratic budget, against funding Connecticut's prescription drug program, and against funding job training—while protecting tax breaks for millionaires." Ouch! Based on the IE report we saw a day earlier, it looks like this ad is backed buy a $140K buy.

This, though, is certainly an unexpected development: With less than a week to go until the primary, the Dem-aligned Patriot Majority USA is spending $200K on TV ads... to nuke Republican state Sen. Andrew Roraback. That's a pretty smart move, seeing as Roraback has by far the most moderate profile among the GOP field. Unfortunately, the ad's not on the group's YouTube page yet. And there's one more IE to mention, another $17K in mailers from EMILY to help Esty.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Republican Wil Cardon is pushing back against a report in the Arizona Republic which made the case that Cardon was winding down his campaign (just ahead of the primary) on account of the fact that he was no longer running any TV ads. Now Cardon is saying he's filming new ads, even posting pictures of a shoot on Facebook. But he could have simply told this to the Republic, instead of having a spokeswoman cryptically insist that "we would never reveal campaign strategy for the next three weeks." Since that claim turned out to be phony, it's easy to believe Cardon's campaign is bs'ing about how serious of a race they plan to keep running.

HI-Sen: With Hawaii's Democratic primary on Saturday, we have a pair of contradictory polls of Senate race. First is Rep. Mazie Hirono's internal (from her usual pollster, Benenson Strategy Group) which shows her up 50-33 over ex-Rep. Ed Case. That's not too different than a Hirono survey from about a month ago which had her leading 53-38. And a recent Ward Research poll put Hirono on top 55-37. Merriman River, though, once again sees a dead heat, with Case edging Hirono 47-46. But kudos to Honolulu Civil Beat writer Michael Levine for acknowledging in his writeup that other polling diverges from Merriman's numbers. Most media outlets that commission their own polls typically act like no other data exists.

MA-Sen: We've got two new ads in the Massachusetts Senate race. The first is from Democrat Elizabeth Warren, bemoaning the massive amount of student loan debt owed in this country. She doesn't offer much of a prescription for the problem, though perhaps her ideas for fixing things are hard to fit into a 30-second spot. (She has more on the topic on her website.)

Meanwhile, Scott Brown trots out yet another ad from yet another turncoat Dem, this time former Bristol County District Attorney Paul Walsh. The script is almost comical in its parochialness, with Walsh claiming that Brown has "gone after some of those bureaucrats in Washington that wouldn't know a quahog from a scallop." Duh, everybody knows Quahog is the town Peter Griffin lives in!

MO-Sen: LOL! Just call her Br'er Claire (as in Br'er Rabbit, of course).

MT-Sen: Here's an interesting—and visually compelling—issue ad that I hadn't seen before. It's from a 501(c)(4) called Citizens for Strength and Security Fund and it attacks GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg on distinctly libertarian—you might almost even say black helicopter-ish—grounds. The high-quality spot features lots of night-vision-style footage of swooping drones and scouting troops. Here's the transcript:

From two miles up, a drone can read a license plate. And if Dennis Rehberg gets his way in Congress, government aircraft could soon be reading yours. Rehberg's bill gives the Department of Homeland Security unprecedented new authority over our land, to conduct surveillance and patrols—even build fences and forward operating bases. After he supported the PATRIOT Act and REAL ID, speak out before it's too late. Tell Congressman Rehberg government fences and drones are wrong for Montana.
Forward operating bases! I guess this is the kind of message that plays well in Montana, though. Meanwhile, on a somewhat more traditional outside spending front, the League of Conservation voters is forking out a massive $171K on mailers to help Dem Sen. Jon Tester. I imagine with a buy that big, they're targeting the whole state.

NV-Sen: Patriot Majority USA is hitting GOP Sen. Dean Heller with a new ad, backed by a $260K buy. They repeat their previous attacks against Heller for twice voting for the Ryan budget to end Medicare, but they update to include a new hit based on the tax cut-related votes Congress took at the end of last month. The narrator says that Heller "voted to give another $160,000 tax break to millionaires," then "voted against a tax cut for the rest of us—the middle class." (H/t to Jon Ralston for uncovering this spot, which is on Patriot Majority's YouTube but, annoyingly, is marked as "unlisted.")

VA-, WI-Sen: Quinnipiac included Senate numbers for two of its three new swing-state polls (Colorado, which doesn't have a Senate contest, was the third). In Virginia, Tim Kaine leads George Allen by a 48-46 margin, which compared to 46-44 Allen edge last month. Meanwhile, in Quinnipiac's first-ever poll of the Wisconsin race, Tammy Baldwin ties Tommy Thompson at 47 apiece while beating Eric Hovde 47-43 and Mark Neumann 48-45.

WI-Sen: There was a second poll of the Wisconsin Senate race out on Wednesday, from Charles Franklin at Marquette Law, who nailed the gubernatorial recall polling. Marquette continues to go against the CW on the GOP primary, which will finally be decided in less than a week, by showing ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson still with a sizable edge (unlike other pollsters who are finding something like a three-way tossup). Double-T is at 28, with Eric Hovde at 20, Mark Neumann at 18, and Jeff Fitzgerald is at 13, with 21 still undecided. (They do, like other recent polls, see Neumann momentum and Hovde stalling, though; their mid-July poll was Thompson 35, Hovde 23, Neumann 10, and Fitzgerald 6.)

They also are more bullish on Thompson's November chances: They see him beating Dem Tammy Baldwin 48-43, while Baldwin and Neumann tie 44-44, Baldwin beats Hovde 44-41, and Baldwin tops Fitzgerald 45-40. (In July, it was Thompson over Baldwin 45-41, Baldwin over Hovde 44-38, and Baldwin over Neumann 43-40. Also of note, Barack Obama beats Mitt Romney 50-45, down a smidge from a 51-43 edge in July, keeping the Wisconsin on the very cusp of "swing state." (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: This story's about a week old, but that doesn't make it any less lulzy. The Riverfront Times blasts a mortal hole in a new ad from Republican gubernatorial nominee Dave Spence:

The spot opens on a shuttered industrial building with Spence's voiceover: "After 65 years, this business shut its doors last year," followed by the on-screen words: "McHenry Truck Equipment: Closed in 2011." Spence continues: "It's the same all over Missouri. Small businesses are struggling to stay afloat with Jay Nixon in charge."

Well, maybe, maybe not.

But Spence should probably find a better example to make his case: McHenry Truck Equipment did indeed close its doors in 2011—in order to move to its new location only four miles away, still within the city of St. Louis. As of yesterday, it was still open for business.

MT-Gov: Democratic AG Steve Bullock is out with his first TV ad of the gubernatorial election, a positive spot in which he talks about working "across party lines" to protect citizens' rights to hunt, fish, and bear arms.

NC-Gov: Two different polls have come out in the last few days in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, although neither one finds Dem Walter Dalton in good position. One is from Rasmussen, so that's no surprise; they give GOPer Pat McCrory a 46-41 lead (although the trendlines are great, if only there had been any reason to believe their June poll's 49-35 spread).

The other is from PPP, but they find about the same thing: a 45-38 lead for McCrory (with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 7); they had it at 43-36 a month ago. PPP also looks at all the downballot races; the Lt. Gov. race (left open by Dalton) has a 38-37 lead for Republican Dan Forest over Dem Linda Coleman, but it looks like Dem incumbents are poised to hang on in other statewide races. (Click through for the full tally.)

Finally, McCrory is out with a new TV ad, and while I'll give him props for nice lighting and location scouting (it's set in a cathedral-like abandoned textile mill), it's a strangely slow-paced ad, with 30 seconds worth of content padded out to a full minute, thanks to McCrory's contemplative delivery, as he blames "politics" itself for the state's woeful economy. While he has run other limited-release ads before, this is his first one to run statewide. (David Jarman)

House:

AZ-06: Ben Quayle's fairy godmother, whoever she may be, keeps looking out for him. The Friends of the Majority super PAC (does that make them Super Friends?) is shelling out another $208K on TV ads attacking fellow GOP Rep. David Schweikert ahead of the Aug. 28 primary. That's on top of the $150K they previously spent. To give you a sense of just how damn obscure this organization is, the first Google hit on them is... my post writing up their initial buy a week ago. Are no local reporters interested in this PAC?

CA-07: It's exactly 30 seconds long, but since it lacks the usual "I approve this message" disclosure, you know that Democrat Ami Bera's first ad is actually online only. It wouldn't make a bad TV spot, though: As B-roll of Bera, a physician, treating young kids plays, the announcer talks about Bera's commitment to service and his opposition to congressional pay raises.

CA-15: Sweet merciful Jesus:

In the latest episode raising questions about the erratic behavior of California’s longest standing Congressman, a former California State Assembly Majority leader said Tuesday that East Bay Democratic Rep. Pete Stark erupted in an angry tirade—questioning his sanity, threatening his livelihood and even vowing to call social workers to check on his kids—after he informed Stark he would endorse his opponent in the November general election.
You really, really, really have to click through to read what former Assembly Majority Leader Alberto Torrico says Stark said to him. Eye-popping stuff, and note that Stark's campaign doesn't deny or dispute any of it. Stark faces fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell in the fall.

FL-06: Coastal Florida's Future continues to get in attorney Ron DeSantis's face. They're spending another $15K on mailers to try and block him from the GOP nomination. The group's now spent a total of about $90K on paid media to boost Jacksonville City Councilman Richard Clark and ding DeSantis, who is a Club for Growth favorite. Well, not that favorite, seeing as the CfG has spent basically bupkes here (under $10K).

IL-12: Hmm. A new Public Opinion Strategies poll from Republican Jason Plummer and the NRCC has Plummer leading Democrat Bill Enyart 45-28, but again, hmm. Enyart only recently got into the race (as a substitute for Dem Brad Harriman, who quit unexpectedly), and that shows, seeing as his name rec is a mere 26% in the same survey. Plummer, though, is already at 72%, which seems awfully high to me for a guy who, so far as I'm aware, hasn't run a single TV ad yet. Anyhow, while the topline margin doesn't look great if you call it Plummer +17, obviously Enyart isn't going pull less than 30% of the vote. That makes this survey seem a bit pointless in terms of prognostication value, though I suspect Plummer put it out there more for fundraising purposes.

MA-06: Republican Richard Tisei, who is challenging Dem Rep. John Tierney, is out with his first ad, a very generic introductory spot in which he touts his supposed independence and willingness "to work hard on a bipartisan basis."

MN-08: $17K more in mailers from EMILY's List for Democrat Tarryl Clark. That takes the group to about $80K spent in total on mail to help Clark, plus a similar sum on TV.

Other Races:

KS-St. Sen: The much-anticipated primary showdown Tuesday night between the moderate and conservative wings of the Kansas Republican Party ended in an absolute bloodbath for the mods, with at least eight of them losing to more conservative challengers. The entire tale hasn't yet been written, since several of these conservative victories will make November's general elections against the Democrats much more competitive. But Tuesday's utter washout raises a real question: Why didn't the moderates change sides—and strengthen the Democratic Party—when they still had the chance? That path would have been fraught, for sure, but it surely couldn't have been as terrible as the alternative turned out to be.

PA-St. Sen: One other contest Tuesday night slipped through the cracks: Although it's a little late in the season to be having a special election, there was one in SD-40 in Pittsburgh's suburbs to replace Republican Jane Orie after she resigned her seat in order to spend more time with her prison cellmates. It's a solidly Republican district, so it wasn't a surprise when GOP state Rep. Randy Vulakovich defeated Dem Sharon Brown. The most newsworthy thing about this election, in fact, may be the way in which Allegheny County's GOP chair stuck his foot in it at the victory party afterwards, with a "joke" implying that Obama supporters are "mentally retarded." (David Jarman)

WA-St. Lege: While Tuesday night's carnage in the Kansas state legislature primaries was the bloodiest Kansas has been in about 150 years, based on the Top 2 primary numbers coming out Washington state's primary, things are looking pretty staid there. Despite Republican protestations that they're poised to take control of the state Senate this year, projections from the Top 2 show them only gaining 1 seat (which would take the Dem advantage in that chamber down to 26-23).

Adding up D and R totals in all of the Senate races, only two currently Dem-held seats are poised to flip to the GOP, the Puyallup-based 25th (widely expected to flip after Jim Kastama's retirement to run for SoS, and where the GOP got a strong recruit, Bruce Dammeier, and the Dems got a nobody), and Whidbey Island's 10th. The 10th is hardly a done deal, though, as Barbara Bailey leads Dem incumbent Mary Margaret Haugen (whose name might be familiar since she was the final vote to put same-sex marriage over the top earlier this year) only 50.3-49.7. The Dems are also set to flip the rural King County 5th, where the GOP was left in a pickle with Cheryl Pflug's after-the-filing-deadline retirement, leaving them only with the anti-same-sex-marriage nut who was challenging Pflug from the right. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Democrats are poised to flip the Bellevue-based 41st, which is the bluest district held by a Republican; Steve Litzow leads Maureen Judge 58-42. They have a much better shot in the swingier Vancouver-area 17th, where Tim Probst trails GOPer Don Benton only 50.4-49.6.

In the state House, the Dems are poised to pick up the two House seats being vacated by the two GOPers likely to win those Senate seats above, leading the open seat races in the 10th and 25th. They're also on track to defeat a freshman incumbent in the Federal Way-area 30th, but simultaneously about to lose the other House seat in the 30th, just vacated by Dem Mark Miloscia for his failed Auditor bid. Dems also are trailing in their efforts to hold Probst's old seat in the 17th and a vacant seat in the Lakewood-area 28th; so, a 3-for-3 trade would be a total wash, keeping the chamber at a 56-42 Dem edge. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Crossroads: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS is out with five new ads attacking Democratic Senate candidates as part of a reported $7.2 million buy. However, the initial run adds up to "only" $4.1 million, so presumably there's more yet to come. Four of the spots (in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Virginia) hit broadly similar themes, painting the Dems as tax hikers—including a claim that the Affordable Care Act also constitutes a tax increase. The Nevada ad is different and hits Rep. Shelley Berkley over (by now familiar) alleged ethical transgressions. You can find all of them at the first link.

The reported size of each buy: MO, $874K; MT, $397K; ND, $191K; NV, $768K; VA, $1.9 mil. Note that all of these except the Nevada spot are bogus "issue" ads, so Crossroads doesn't have to report its spending. They did file an IE report for the Silver State, though, since the ad explicitly encourages people to vote against Berkley. So far, their filing indicates only a $175K purchase of TV time, so either their press release listed an inflated sum (something I'm almost sure they've done in the past) or there's more to come.

DCCC: The DCCC just announced the addition several more candidates to its Red to Blue program. Most of the names on the list had actually previously been tapped for R2B, but the D-Trip says this is the first time they've been mentioned in a national announcement. There are still several brand-new folks, though:

David Gill (IL-13)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Mark Murphy (NY-11)
Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18)
Pete Gallego (TX-23)
Suzan DelBene (WA-01)
And there are also two new inclusions on the DCCC's "Emerging Races" tier:
Steve Pestka (MI-03)
Jim Graves (MN-06)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  RCP average (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, Candide08, judyms9, itskevin, IM, askew, Sylv

    Obama actually has a bigger lead on Romney than he did on McCain on this date in 2008.  Of course, he wouldn't benefit from another financial collapse the way he did in '08.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 05:28:42 AM PDT

  •  IN-Sen: Donnelly internal poll has him (9+ / 0-)

    up 41-40 over Mourdock.

    http://thehill.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 05:29:38 AM PDT

    •  Question (0+ / 0-)

      Where would Donnelly need particularly strong turnout to win this, or would it simply be needed all over?  Just trying to figure out the parts of the state that could use some cajoling.

      •  I would guess he needs... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, Woody, itskevin, IM, Sylv

        ...to try to keep his losses down in southern Indiana.

        There should be elevated black turnout with Obama on the ballot, and he should be able to goose northern Indiana turnout without too much trouble based on having represented the area.  The hard part might be making sure he doesn't get clobbered by supermassive margins closer to Kentucky.

        But that's just my guess, there are plenty here smarter than me on Indiana.

        What puzzles me is the still-sky-high undecideds at this stage.  We're now less than 3 months out, and close to 20% still on the fence is weird for a U.S. Senate race.  It's not like these guys are nobodies, Mourdock is a state elected official who got name rec from taking down Lugar, and Donnelly is a 2-term Congressman.  Donnelly has a real opening here, but at some point he needs to pop into the mid-40s.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 06:15:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've said this before, but (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, DCCyclone, askew

          I think being a statewide elected official earns you almost bupkes in name rec unless you're a governor or a senator. And Donnelly being a three-term (he was elected in 2006) congressman doesn't offer him any name rec either. However, the GOP Senate primary should have given Mourdock a proper name rec boost. Beating Lugar was a BFD, and there were a lot of ads run on his behalf.

          So ultimately, I agree the high undies are weird, but weirder w/r/t Mourdock. Smells like a bit of a problem for him.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:00:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MI-11 Criminal Charges Coming at 11AM Eastern n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, KingofSpades
  •  Scott Brown stepped in it yesterday by griping (6+ / 0-)

    that MA has sent voter registrations to people on public assistance - which is true as this is a result of a lawsuit that the Bush Administration won against Massachusetts - and trying to link it to Elizabeth Warren's daughter who works for voter rights.  Brown's whining about people on housing, or any type of government, assistance is not being well received.  He's coming across as saying the usual Republican dog-whistle about welfare queens (or whatever the Republicans are calling their current version).  Needless to say, this is not very welcome in MA; a major setback to Brown.

    Voters should all have the right to vote, even if they vote for the "wrong" person (in my case, I think people that voted for GWB made a huge mistake, but I would never ask that their right to vote be challenged).

    It was covered both on the Boston Globe and the NY Times.

    Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

    by DefendOurConstitution on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 06:40:10 AM PDT

  •  wow rasmussen works fast (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xrighty, KingTag, Sylv

    I predicted that Rasmussen would get Romney back in the lead by Friday but he gave Romney a 4 point bounce today.
    I assume because the mean democrats attacked Romney for killing people.
    Anyway wait for gallup to see if they follow,

    •  yeah it makes no sense (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, judyms9, IM, Sylv

      He has Obama at 49% approval no difference from yesterday but he shows the bottom falling out on voter preference. I really thinks sometimes he just makes it up.
      Also the chickenshit has the VA senate race tied at 46% each for. My guess he will keep the close races tied up to election day if he can't really figure out who is going to win.

      •  This is the main problem with Ras (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Sylv

        He consistently has Obama's approval rating higher than his % in the head to head. Given that they are the same sample(LV), it's really odd.

        I think Obama, or any president, does at least as well as their approval rating on election day.

  •  Nichelle Nichols (Lt. Uhura) registering voters (10+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    We don't have open diary thingies anymore, the diary mentions NV-Sen race, it isn't a diary on its own, and I didn't know where to put it. So I put it here.

    It's got a nice picture of Ms. Nichols with the President doing the Vulcan salute.

    Live long and prosper.

    "Yes, reason has been a part of organized religion, ever since two nudists took dietary advice from a talking snake." - Jon Stewart; The Daily Show

    by Uwaine on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 06:52:03 AM PDT

  •  Top 10 ad markets (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew, Sylv

    1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, AFP 540, RNC 200, ROF 180, Priorities 165, Crossroads 100)
    2. Cincinnati, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1000, AFP 250, ROF 250, Crossroads 170, RNC 150)
    3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 1000, Obama 900, AFP 900, RNC 170, ROF 150, Crossroads 120)
    4. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1350, Romney 1100, AFP 400, RNC 190, Crossroads 150, ROF 130)
    5. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Romney 1300, Obama 1000, AFP 320, RNC 180, Crossroads 160, ROF 160, Priorities 155)
    6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, AFP 610, ROF 225, RNC 215, Crossroads 100)
    7. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, AFP 315, Crossroads 160, ROF 130, RNC 100)
    8.  Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 650, AFP 380, RNC 250, Priorities 230, ROF 200, Crossroads 100) 9. Columbus, OH (Romney 1000, Obama 830, AFP 300, RNC 160, ROF 150, Priorities 130, Crossroads 120)
    10. Toledo, OH (Romney 980, Obama 940, AFP 330, RNC 180, ROF 160, Crossroads 100)

    Looks like a pickup in Iowa and Ohio at the expense of CO, FL and VA.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 06:53:02 AM PDT

    •  Looks like Romney/GOP flooding the airwaves... (0+ / 0-)

      Romney probably spending the last of his primary monies knowing he gets in GE banked money in three weeks.  

      Where is the DNC?

    •  It is so hard to say (0+ / 0-)

      based on just this data about 10 specific markets.  Iowa has had the heaviest advertising for weeks, yet its markets have not typically been in the top 10 on this list.  Should be new data on overall state-by-state advertising later today.  Easier to draw conclusions from that.  I would be shocked if there has been any backing off in VA particularly.  There has been a gradual downward trend in spending in CO, at least on the Obama side, so I would not be surprised by that continuing.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 07:02:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pres Obama is in Colorado for a 2 day stint... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, Sylv

        than heading to Iowa for three days - maybe that effects ad buys as he'd be getting free coverage from news outlets with his stops so wouldn't need paid media that week.  

        •  My sense from looking the data (0+ / 0-)

          from week to week I that this can affect things.  His advertising in FL was a little lower while he was here.  But I couldn't say for sure.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 07:09:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Your Natl Journal link updated through last week (0+ / 0-)

        The Top 10 markets list is meaningless candy compared to the National Journal site.

        And it's updated through 8/6, which is Monday.

        Virginia has no "backing off" at all, in fact OFA spent an all-time high there, over $2 million.

        I also think the trendlines might be misleading because advertising buys are based on more than volume, as a lot of other factors matter.  Is there a new line of attack or a new defensive ad that needs heavier rotation than norma to be most effective?  Are some ads being tried out experimentally?...we know from Sasha Sissenberg's writings that OFA is doing a lot of quantitative experimentation in advertising to try to measure what works and what doesn't with targeted voter groups.  Things like that can cause a spike that doesn't indicate any change in priorities.  I imagine there are plenty of other factors that affect weekly volume that I'm not even aware of.

        The bottom line is that it's a mistake to read anything into changes in weekly volume.  Colorado, for example, spiked unnaturally at a whopping $2.3 million the week before the 4th-of-July.  Obviously the Aurora shooting came into play eventually, but that doesn't explain anything because OFA has never climbed back up to anything remotely close to that record week.  I imagine something "special" was being done that week.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:27:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It will get updated (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          tonight for the week of 8/13.  I posted analysis of 8/6 in last Thursday's poll roundup.  Will hopefully do one for this week today or tomorrow.

          You are right that the spending spikes and goes down sometimes wildly for reasons I will never pretend to understand.  But the relative spending among the states has remained pretty consistent and seems to tell us something, although I am cautious even about drawing conclusions about that.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 12:53:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  looks like Obama isn't on the air in NOVA (0+ / 0-)

      I live in Md so I see the ads for Va and all I have seen lately are Romney ads and crossroads anti Kaine ads. It's amazing it appears that crossroads is just not effective, they have been pounding Kaine for months and the polls haven't moved at all.

    •  Wow! Four (4) battleground state! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, askew

      I know that this oversimplifies things, but all 10 of the top markets are in Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.

      This is fun info, Paleo. Sorry I had overlooked it before (apparently you have been posting regularly).

      I guess if Charlotte and Orlando break into the top 10 that means we're pushing forward. If we see lots of ads running in Milwaukee and Pittsburgh then we'd better be digging trenches for last-line defence.

      I'm looking for Charlotte and Raleigh to bump Toledo and Columbus soon.

  •  UTAH voter fraud ?? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pinto Pony

    very interesting:

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    •  Just the potential for fraud, it seems. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Sylv

      I fully expect the Utah legislature to enact some of the most stringent voter ID requirements in the country, just to protect the integrity of the election process.

      Along the same lines, I also expect Jessica Biel, Mila Kunis, Anne Hathaway, and Becki Newton to have a big fight over me, so...yeah.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 08:08:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  couldn't that be (0+ / 0-)

      people who moved away and never had their names removed? or perhaps some kind of clerical error? or both? (guess it would depend on how big the disparity is...)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 10:04:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Impeach Longtorso! (7+ / 0-)
    One other contest Tuesday night slipped through the cracks: Although it's a little late in the season to be having a special election ...
    FWIW, there are 2-3 state senate races which will really be in play this cycle (half the 50 seat chamber is up every two years), and if we can close the margin from 30-20 to 27-23, that makes a big difference.
  •  Some of the swirling data among the electorate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv

    probably has a lot to do with shenanagins in local races.  Here in MI Thaddeus McCotter blackened the eye of the GOP with his method for leaving politics: cheat on petition signatures and then resign so it costs your state megabucks to replace you for a hot minute.  Other nutso things with other candidates.  Have to confess that on Tuesday in a non-partisan judgeship race I voted for an innocuous candidate I hadn't considered because of the fiendish robocalls from the opposition that alleged everything short of human sacrifice on the part of the candidate with no, no, no supporting evidence, just Rovian innuendo.  I know there is an appetite for low blows, head butts, and all manner of dirty fighting, but their is also a tipping point, and I think it's being reached in some races.  

    Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Islands, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

    by judyms9 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 07:38:09 AM PDT

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