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Pardon my hand-wringing, but I have been in a few conversations where we have noted all the gaffes, missteps, and lost opportunities by Romney and his campaign.  Romney is entering Gerry Ford territory.  With all the baggage Romney is toting I wonder what would happen if Romney lost the nomination at the convention and a brokered candidate came to the rescue.  What challenges would Obama face if Romney lost the nomination?

Join me below the orange tribute to  Art Nouveau for this little thought experiment and poll?

Is it possible for Romney to lose the Nomination of the GOP party?

Romney has been defined.  He has been painted into a corner with his own comments.  The polls are not in his favor.  The money does not appear to be working.

The VP has not been named.  Would a Portman, Ayotte or Ryan want to be associated with the Romney campaignn and a possible humiliating loss?

Would a Portman, Ryan, or Rubio prefer to ride to the rescue and become the brokered nominee who saves the party, unites the factions and possibly wins the presidency?

Maybe Jeb Bush or Chris Christie would be the party savior?

How would a new nominee be defined in time for the Nov. election?

If you have answers please inform me. (Knocking on wood that Romney is the Nominee.)

Poll

Romney will...

20%62 votes
5%17 votes
2%8 votes
70%209 votes

| 296 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  My only prediction is (11+ / 0-)

    that it will be fun to watch.

    So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

    by illinifan17 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:31:14 AM PDT

  •  he's going to be nominated (10+ / 0-)


    Republicans are used to closing ranks and following their party bosses like sheep; they will close ranks once more and threaten, cajole, and lie their way to putting their candidate in shape.

    "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

    by louisev on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:31:23 AM PDT

    •  That is the GOP M.O. but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ljb, Winston Sm1th

      with all the disarray, gaffes, etc I wonder if the party is at a breaking point with Romney?  I mean everyone has their limit.  

      I'm just here for the Mojo!

      by Gator on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:35:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gator - you don't understand the GOP (13+ / 0-)

        Romney will be the candidate and there will be no attempt to change it on the floor or by any other means. He won the primaries and will be the candidate. The GOP thinks in a very process oriented manner. It's Romney's turn and he won, Period Stop. What I do think you will see down the stretch is the SuperPACs turn toward the House and Senate, and away from the race for POTUS.

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:40:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your right I don't understand. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gooserock, VClib

          I see Romney's bid from my independent/slightly liberal/ rebellious perspective and I don't even understand how anyone could settle for such a status quo nominee.

          I'm just here for the Mojo!

          by Gator on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:46:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's Not Status Quo, There Are No Individual Re- (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            IreGyre

            publicans, he'll sign and veto all the same legislation that Huck or Palin or Pawlenty would. As Norquist says, he's just a pen holder.

            He's a badly performing campaigner to be sure. If he's replaced it'd only be because he's hurting the party too much, not because of any governing policy he "has."

            We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

            by Gooserock on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:05:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Romney will not be replaced (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Red Bean, blueoasis, wblynch

              for any reason.

              "let's talk about that"

              by VClib on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:09:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The only reason he might be replaced (0+ / 0-)

                would be if something happened that caused him to voluntarily withdraw. I feel certain there is enough dirt in his background that, were it to be released, might cause that to happen. But I doubt it will come out before the convention.

                •  AQ - I don't think there is any "dirt" in Romney's (0+ / 0-)

                  background that would cause him to withdraw. He has been in high profile politics since he ran against Ted Kennedy. Any dirt would have shown up a long time ago.

                  "let's talk about that"

                  by VClib on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 02:34:27 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Just used as an excuse for him to step aside? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    VClib

                    for the good of the party?... it would be like pulling his own teeth for him so would only happen if things were imploding and they feared losing the house as well as the presidency... and ONLY after all his insider party and billionaire support evaporated... AND he finally got convinced somehow..

                    Pogo & Murphy's Law, every time. Also "Trust but verify" - St. Ronnie (hah...)

                    by IreGyre on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 03:36:07 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  This has been the case historically... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Tonedevil, ljb, llywrch

          but throw in the monkey-wrench of the Tea Party.  They do not play along with the top-down, know your place way the GOP has operated over the years (just ask Dick Lugar).  So far I don't think they hate Romney enough to raise a big stink at the convention, but give them some time....

          •  Chicago Lawyer - I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

            There really isn't anything they can do. However, after running two losing "moderates" (from the Tea Party perspective) I would expect a much more conservative GOP nominee in 2016.

            One bone that could be tossed is to nominate Mike Huckabee to be the VP nominee. I didn't think he was available given the launch of his nationally syndicated talk radio show. However, the show (which competes head on with Limbaugh in the noon-3pmET time slot) is doing so poorly that a three of four month leave of absence, after which he could relaunch might make it possible.

            "let's talk about that"

            by VClib on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:53:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I doubt it will happen... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              llywrch

              if anything because it's practically too late in the game for someone other than Romney to enter the campaign on a national party ticket.

              But this isn't Newt Gingrich's, Dick Armey's or Karl Rove's Republican Party anymore, where everybody sticks to the talking points, keeps his head down and gets in line for the good of the Party.  The tea partiers are unpredictable and uncontrollable and, most importantly, don't care about the Party.  They are true believers, even if they're not always sure what exactly it is they believe in.  You are seeing it already; Romney is facing very public dissention and criticism from the right---in print, on the radio, on TV---to an extent we haven't seen in decades, maybe since G.H.W. Bush signed the income tax increase in 1990.  And Romney can't even fake being comfortable around lower-class social conservative and tea party voters.  He doesn't know the language or the dog-whistles.  Throwing the tea party a bone by nominating one of their own for VP will just make a toxic ticket; Romney should at least be able to look comfortable in photographs with his running mate.  A few more kind words from the Romney camp about the Massachusetts health system and you never know.

        •  the GOP can't control the Tea Party (0+ / 0-)

          I agree that they try to show party unity, but I predict it will be harder than it used to be.

      •  Consider this angle, too: They know damn well (9+ / 0-)

        they're going to lose this year.  Obama is on the upswing, their brand is on the skids.  Better to go with a loser that you'd like to get rid of anyway than offer up a candidate that you might want to run in 2016.  Let Romney run and lose, then they can shun him.  They can also spin the loss to say that it was because he wasn't conservative enough, and pretty much any other thing they want.

        •  Then they get the bonus (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lineatus, wblynch

          Of refutiating (is that what she said?) all of Mitt's moderate positions (relatively speaking) as being not conservative enough for the American public.  

        •  this (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lineatus

          early on they were going for broke with the most extreme Teapartyism with a view to getting an extremist candidate nominated - and when that failed they picked their expendable loser and are hunkering down.

          "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

          by louisev on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:12:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wonder, though, if Mitt is hurting (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AnnetteK, Sue B, llywrch, Araguato

            the Republican brand, in a way that can't simply be written off as the necessary outcome of a sacrifice candidate.

            For once in their damn lives, Republicans are being exposed as the party of plutocratic values, of deliberate wealth polarization and class privilege. Despite his wealth, W. managed to obscure that with his transplanted Texas folksiness, and McCain's military heroism -- despite his own substantial number of houses -- distracted people in '08 from the centrality of economic privilege to Republican values. I suppose it didn't hurt that Palin was his running mate, and that she was able to run on some kind of narrative about "the real 'Muricans."

            But this time around, Republicans are given an opportunity to double down on the fake populism of the midterms in '10. And who do they pick? Someone who wouldn't know populism if it ran up and spat on his button-down Oxford. He's not only wealthy, but the specific source of his wealth is a company closely identified with the very strategies of offshoring, leveraged buyouts, and "creative destruction" that have wreaked such havoc on Middle America over the last few decades.

            And so what that means, in the end, is that Mitt's candidacy cannot just be dismissed as a lame attempt to get 2012 out of the way so that some Christie-figure can be prepped for the open contest of 2016. He might actively do some damage to the Republican brand by demonstrating just how fake its populist rhetoric actually is.

            Nothing requires a greater effort of thought than arguments to justify the rule of non-thought. -- Milan Kundera

            by Dale on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 12:59:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Then the VP process will be drawing straws, (6+ / 0-)

          short straw has to run with Mittens.

          Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

          by JTinDC on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:14:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Polls are still holding somewhat even, so they (0+ / 0-)

        won't dump him unless the polling takes a nosedive.
        He definitely won't quit without a fight.

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:18:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You left out their most potent trick, vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dumas EagerSeton, Sue B

      stealing/suppression. Hopefully ineffective this cycle, but even they have never beat that drum this hard before.

      There can be no protection locally if we're content to ignore the fact that there are no controls globally.

      by oldpotsmuggler on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:21:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney will be the nominee. (7+ / 0-)

    First- he has too many delegates under his control. They are handpicked people not likely to betray him.

    Second: he has too much power. as in money, even if some pull support from him, and this IS the party of money.

    Third: He is a known bully, and few would have the guts or nerve to step in front of him.

    Fourth: no one has enough delegates to be viewed as a fair alternative to him.

    I would put the odds of Romney being the nominee at over 96%.. I mean there is chance he gets a heart attack before then , but the GOP have their nominee and that wont change.

  •  How can he be challenged? (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Farkletoo, Gator, Red Bean, grytpype, FG, AnnetteK

    From what I understand no one else can have their name put into nomination because they didn't win the minimum of 5 states.

    •  I don't know. I am not very... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueoasis

      informed about this type of campaign intricacies.

      Part of my motivation for putting up the diary was to learn, sincerely.

      I'm just here for the Mojo!

      by Gator on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:40:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I believe Paul got five states, one of them (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gator, JTinDC, AnnetteK

      by caucus or state convention.

      Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

      by Wee Mama on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:45:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I also think going by what I'd read (0+ / 0-)

      (that I only vaguely recall) that a bunch if not all the delegates he earned are compelled to vote for him on the first ballot.

      From that, I think he's got enough to win on the first ballot.

      Now what they might be able to do is bring a new resolution to dump him.

      Or they could try to get him to resign.

      But both those seem like really crazy scenarios so they'd need a lot of Tea Partyers to show up for one to even fantasize about such a thing.

      And then they have the problem of who they're going to replace him with. The primaries didn't identify a strong Hilary Clinton type candidate.

      It good news for Obama that he's a weak candidate and serves them right for scuttling many of his additional efforts to improve the economy and create jobs.

      The only bummer is if he crashes and burns too soon because the the Kochs will spend like crazy to take the Senate & House instead of putting more into his campaign
      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  Who else has enough money to compete? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gator, grytpype

    I know that the outside spending makes this less of an issue, but it's still a huge issue.  There's just not enough time to raise enough money for a credible presidential campaign.

    •  Credibility has never been an issue with the GOP (0+ / 0-)

      but I understand what you are saying, but if Romney continues to decline some in the GOP might side with the unknown rather that go with what they might perceive as a loser.

      I'm just here for the Mojo!

      by Gator on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:42:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, if we say "credible campaign" as in... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blueoasis, Sue B

        ..."campaign with a chance in hell of winning", then it would seem that they'd be dumping one loser for another.  And I think the powers that be in the GOP would rather lose with Romney, if they have to lose.  That way, at least they can blame the loss on "not going with a real conservative".

  •  And their potential field of candidates (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Gator, Tinfoil Hat, kcc

    is so wonderfully deep, rich, and diverse - I can't even imagine how they'd be able to settle on just one to lead their super-appealing party!  

  •  Not happening (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Gator

    despite the delusional rantings of the Paulbots. "Oh, I'll get you yet, Austin Powers! BWHAHAHAHA!"

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:39:28 AM PDT

  •  In my opinon.... (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, Gator, Olympia, blackjackal, Gooserock, Sue B

    Since the right wing tactic of choice is never back down or apologize, even when it is prudent, Romney will be the candidate.  The Pubs fear backing down more than losing.  They can make up excuses for the loss, but not for backing down.

  •  Time to draft Rush (4+ / 0-)

    Ted Nugent can be his running mate.

    Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

    by Minerva on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:45:50 AM PDT

  •  The only way I can (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gator, blackjackal

    envision not-the-nominee is the contents of his tax returns getting out, whether by Mitt under pressure or by some person he has screwed over.

    •  Yes that is another perspective! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hulibow

      I had not thought about that.  What if Mitt really is hiding some IRS criminal doings?

      I'm just here for the Mojo!

      by Gator on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:56:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know if it's (0+ / 0-)

        criminal, but whatever is in the 2009 tax information is a campaign-ender and it's precluding him from releasing any of the other years.  

      •  The only way to get to any IRS criminal doings (0+ / 0-)
        What if Mitt really is hiding some IRS criminal doings?
        would be to launch an investigation and that is NOT going to happen.

        Reid threw out that "rumor" about Mittsey's taxes in a well-played political ploy.  Whether it's true or not, who knows?  I suspect Reid DOES have a credible source/s at Bain b/c he's a good tactician at times.  And this is one of them.

        Unfortunately I think Romney isn't responding to pressure the way he did in his earliest days of campaigning.  He'd get super rattled, angry, lash out in anger at speeches...transform into Super Gaffer, and that's not happening to the degree Reid et al would like or were hoping for.  At least that's my two cents.  But I do think there's lots more mileage in that tax thing for sure post RNC Convention.

        Lastly I think Mitt's their boy.  He will be crowned at the convention and run in 2012.  They have too much invested in both $$$ and time.

        Chrissakes they went with Dole didn't they?  If they stuck with an asshole like that, they'll stick with an asshole like RMoney even though he's more despicable than Bob Dole could ever have hoped or aspired to be.

        Is anybody listenin' ? - by Tori del Allen

        by Dumas EagerSeton on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 01:08:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It would be great... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ljb, llywrch

    If somehow he were booted from the ticket.

    It would be a televised meltdown of epic proportions that would result in an Obama landslide and fracture the GOP for years to come.

    If it were to happen it would be so ugly we would not only increase our margins in the Senate but we would retake the House.

    Anyone outside their base would see with their own eyes that the dysfunction in Washington is the product of a party that can't even handle its internal affairs.

    But its a pipe dream.  The Romney forces have stacked the deck.  And the party pros...who pretty much all favored Romney over his even weaker opponents...know they are better equipped to weather the squall of a Romney defeat than the hurricane of replacing him.

    They'll lose with Romney in the hopes of minimizing their other losses.

    If the founding fathers thought corporations were people why didn't they just say so?

    by Notthemayor on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 10:57:28 AM PDT

    •  That could happen (0+ / 0-)

      The loose cannon at the convention, as others have pointed out, are the Ron Paul supporters.

      Now any astute politician would be aware of this, & would make an effort to appease Paul somehow. Maybe even try the old carrot-&-the-stick tactic. ("You keep your true believers under control, & we'll do this for you. Otherwise, this will happen.") Even make him some promises they will renege on later -- & reneging on the Paulbots might actually help Romney with the Republican factions.

      Romney has shown time & again he is not an astute politician.

      My guess is that Rom Paul will point this problem out to Romney, & explain -- if not all but beg -- that he needs something to appease his followers. Romney will fail to respond to this -- if not outright insult Paul in his characteristic & memorably graceless manner. Ron Paul will then happen to be out of touch at the most inconvenient moment for Romney, which will also be the moment his followers proceed to disrupt matters on national television. And for some, embarrassing Romney would be their proudest life achievement.

      There will be much gnashing of teeth when that happens. And much chewing of popcorn, too.

  •  He won't lose the nomination, but... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Red Bean, dougymi, grytpype, llywrch

    Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum will extract their pound of flesh from Romney, and Romney will (at least for a while) be shackled to the right wing base. I think the convention will be a fright-fest of rightwing lies and conspiracy theories as the down-ticket speakers strut their lunatic stuff. My hope is that the media allows these speakers to be seen and heard, which will help drive fence-sitting moderates toward the Democrats on election day.

    And just this delicious fantasy: Romney decides to pivot toward the center AT the convention, and gets booed during his acceptance speech! (Never going to happen.)

    •  shake up the ole etch a sketch right in front (0+ / 0-)

      of republican jesus and everyone else?  Interesting concept.  He's got the ego for it, but not the spine.

      A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

      by dougymi on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:45:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's funny that even on a site for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Red Bean

    political fans, some people have zero sense for what is possible in politics. How about a diary on whether fairies might dance on Obama's head during the debates?

  •  ...and then 300 secret North Korean (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG

    operatives dressed as pizza delivery guys storm the convention floor but no one notices because a thousand manatees somehow show up to carrying signs which no one can read because they're in Manatee and at that moment Sarah Palin grabs the microphone for Michelle Bachmann and says she's the real leader of the party and everyone has to listen to her but no one is listening because an Elvis impersonator hooked up his amp to the PA system which is making unreal screeching feedback but just then Hurricane Lucy hits Tampa with sustained winds of 140 mph and an SUV carrying Jeb Bush go airborne and ....

    "Balderdash!" - Mitt Romney

    by Red Bean on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:20:42 AM PDT

  •  They know he sucks but they have no one else. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    grytpype

    There is no credible Plan B.  And Romney, though he sucks indeed, has done nothing egregious enough to generate calls to step down.  Not even close.

    Instead there is a vague sense of unease among the GOP, offset by the usual "STFU and fall in line" expectation.  

    Romney, Romney, he's our man!  He can't do it, but then, who can?

    They have no one.

  •  What do we WANT to happen? (0+ / 0-)

    What would be best for Obama?  Romney badly damaged at the convention but surviving?  A new nominee with no campaign in place?

    Obviously a feeble nominee with no campaign in place is the best case scenario.

    The worst case scenario is a strong new candidate but I can't think of one.  Every one of their primary candidates was a political (and mental) midget.  The VP names, Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman all have baggage that Democrats can exploit.  Less baggage than Romney himself, but baggage nonetheless.  

    The republican party is that bankrupt.

    I also can't think of  a group of republican power brokers with the clout to force Romney to withdraw.  I agree with what  Gator says, they are process bound.  That flies in the face of tea party-ism though, but it definitely still applies to the money people.

    What a sad statement that the 'best' ticket for us would be Michele Bachmann / Christine O' Donnell.  Both women.  Compare that to the future democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton / Elizabeth Warren!

  •  Runway. Take-off. (0+ / 0-)

    There is a point at which a plane has committed to taking off. I think it's generally called V2. The GOP is at V2 or beyond. They have to launch. And, anyway, what would you have the GOP do?

    The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

    by Anne Elk on Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 11:58:37 AM PDT

  •  Everyone I talk to hates Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llywrch

    Everyone on Dailykos, that is.  :)

  •  No one else has enough $$$ backers (0+ / 0-)

    RMoney is going to be the candidate because he has all the billionaire backers and donors sown up.

  •  it seems highly unlikely to me... (0+ / 0-)

    Barring Romney being caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, it seems to me that the odds of his getting the nomination are more than 90 percent at this point, primarily because the overwhelming majority of delegates attending the convention willingly ran as Romney delegates. He couldn't get a friendlier audience anywhere in the U.S., including the Mormon Tabernacle Choir in my opinion (there are a fair number of Democratic-leaning Mormons as well as Mormons of principle of which Romney is neither).

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