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Here on DKE, liberal activists seemed to have two clear favorites in the Hawaii primaries: Representative Mazie Hirono over former Representative Ed Case, and Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard over former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.  Both Hirono and Gabbard won big.  Does that mean the Hawaii primary electorate saw eye-to-eye with online activists?  

Maybe not.  There were two articles on the candidates' performance at the state house level, which mentioned places where Case did well and so did Gabbard, and vice-versa, so I decided to look by precinct.  And, while it isn't the strongest relationship, there was a positive correlation between Tulsi Gabbard's precinct performance in HI-02 and Ed Case's, and a negative correlation between Mufi Hannemann's precinct performance and Ed Case's.  Let's look into this further.

I used the precinct-level results from the Hawaii government along with Wessa's online regression software (Wessa P., (2008), Multiple Regression (v1.0.26) in Free Statistics Software (v1.1.23-r7), Office for Research Development and Education).

Introduction:

I hope no one's offended by my title.  I'm in the "netroots bubble" too--it's simply the consequence of trying to follow lots of races all over the country and support candidates that seem to agree with us on the issues we think are important, which are probably national issues.  

There's nothing wrong with that, but there's always the possibility that we're over-looking important local factors that don't correlate with our own ideological emphases.  (And hopefully some locals will stop by this diary and tell me if I'm on the right track--that's one of the great things this community can offer.)

DKE, and national activists in general, seemed to have clear opinions on the Hawaii Congressional primaries.

Despite Tulsi Gabbard's lousy history on gay rights, liberal activists seemed to mostly line up behind her--she had the endorsements of the Sierra Club and Dennis Kucinich--especially since her opponent, Mufi Hannemann, is currently to her right on social issues.  

Meanwhile, Mazie Hirono is one of the most liberal members of Congress--her Progressive punch score is the 8th highest in the House!--and her opponent was a former member of the Blue Dog caucus.

Despite this, the Maui News noted:

Kahului was the single state House district Mufi Hannemann claimed in his losing bid to Tulsi Gabbard in Saturday's Democratic primary race for the 2nd Congressional District, according to a geographical analysis of voter results.

Hannemann bested Gabbard by a margin of 50.9 percent to 43.2 percent in Maui's state House District 9 - which includes Kahului, Wailuku and Puunene.

[...]

Hannemann's popularity with Central Maui voters could explain why the former Honolulu mayor and his wife, Gail, chose to spend Saturday afternoon sign-waving in Kahului near the intersection of Kuihelani Highway and South Puunene Avenue. Hannemann later spent most of the evening at the Maui headquarters of the International Longshore Workers Union in Wailuku before flying back to Oahu to watch the election results play out.

[...]
Among Maui's six House districts, Gabbard did best in South Maui's District 11, with 58.9 percent of those votes. (The breakdown of votes by district includes absentee ballots counted in the precinct where the voter lives.)

Among the 27 voting House districts, Gabbard had the highest percentage of votes in Kaneohe Bay and Kailua on Oahu, with 66 percent of votes in District 50.

[...]

Hirono, meanwhile, defeated Ed Case in the Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate.

She, too, fared best - in terms of percentage - in the Kahului-Wailuku-Puunene state House district, according to an analysis of precinct votes.

Hirono got 75.8 percent of the vote to Case's 23 percent in Maui's state House District 9 - the largest margin she won among the state's 51 House districts. She performed second-best statewide in Maui's House District 8, which includes Wailuku, Waihee and Waikapu, with 71 percent of votes.

Similarly, the Honolulu Civil Beat noted:
Kailua's state House district was unique in three ways in Hawaii's three biggest primary races Saturday:

District 50 was Ed Case's few bright spots in his blowout loss against Mazie Hirono.

District 50 was the site of Tulsi Gabbard's largest victory margin over Mufi Hannemann in the 2nd Congressional District primary.

District 50 was one of Ben Cayetano's strongest bases of support in the Honolulu mayor's race.

The electoral map shows Hannemann won just one of 27 districts: central Maui, where he spent much of Election Day rallying with union supporters.

You can click through for their take on the geographic results; and the Maui News also noted the Kailua thing.  (Kailua, it must be pointed out, is where many of Tulsi Gabbard's donors tied to her anti-gay father live, but these are not people who I'd expect to be inclined to donate to Ed Case, who had a nasty race against Mike Gabbard back when he was a Republican.  By the way--I hesitate to link to that diary, since I really should add some more detailed citations of the Rick Ross forum people to it.)

After twohundertseventy asked me the Hirono/Case correlation, I decided to find out--at the precinct level.

Precinct-Level Regression:

Here is a chart I made comparing Mazie Hirono's vote share by precinct (which might include some "precincts" of miscellanious absentee ballots or what-have-you):

As you can see, the negative correlation is weak, but it's hard to miss.  Wessa's regression analysis gave me:

Gabbard[t] = + 0.838436227246869 -0.470061633617915Hirono[t] + e[t].
The r-squared was a miniscule 0.24, but the Hirono variable was highly statistically significant in explaining the Gabbard variable.

Specifics and Explanations:

The easiest guess, for me, is that this is about two related factors: labor support and establishment/outsider dynamics.  

Look at the Civil Beat's list of endorsements.  While Hirono, Case, Gabbard, and Hannemann all had some union support, Hirono and Hannemann seemed to definitely be labor's candidates overall: Hirono was endorsed by the AFL-CIO, by the Hawaii Fire Fighters Association, the Hawaii Government Employees Association, the Hawaii Laborers’ Union Local 368, the Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters, the Hawaii State Teachers Association, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 142, and the United Public Workers.  Except for the AFL-CIO, all of these also endorsed Hannemann--and he had more labor union support besides.  

Both the Civil Beat and Maui articles mentioned how Hannemann spent election night partying with labor groups in the Maui district where both he and Hirono did very well.

More subjectively--despite having different ideological emphases (and a vicious personal feud!) Gabbard and Case were both the "outsider" candidates in some sense.  

Much of Ed Case's campaign message seemed to be about how he wasn't a part of Hawaii's hegemonic Democratic establishment.  (Indeed, a very liberal friend of mine from Hawaii once expressed a positive opinion of Case on these kinds of grounds, much to my surprise).  For example, here's his pre-primary message from his website:

But beyond that, the Democratic primary election tomorrow asks you to choose between the status quo and change.

It asks you to decide whether you think DC is working today or whether it is broken and must be fixed.

And it asks you to decide whether the political culture of Hawai'i is working for all or whether we can and must do better.

Hirono, while very liberal, is also very much a part of the Hawaii establishment.

In some sense, Hannemann was an outsider as well--I recall reading an article or blog post that pointed out how he'd always done better in the nonpartisan Honolulu municipal elections than in Democratic primaries.  

But he was a major figure in state politics, and a lightning rod for various controversies, and Gabbard--a young, telegenic veteran--presented herself as a "fresh approach" to "the tired old politics of sweetheart deals and trading favors [and so on]".

And, of course, there's a relationship between being the labor candidate and being the establishment candidate, especially--it seems to me--in a state like Hawaii.  This obviously isn't statistically significant, but the Civil Beat intriguingly interviewed a few voters at one location:

Bryan Costa, a 29-year-old Democrat, said that he voted for Gabbard because he doesn’t like Mufi Hannemann.

“I don’t care for Mufi,” the Waimanalo resident said. “I’m against rail, and I’m a small business owner and anti-union. Mufi has all the union support.”

[...]

Enchanted Lake Democratic resident Shannon Kaopua, 44, voted for Gabbard because   he “wanted to try something different.”

Gabbard, as far as I know, supported the rail project as a councilmember, but has expressed skepticism about it in various ways, while Hannemann was such a strong supporter that it's been called "Mufi Hannemann's rail".  And voters who feel strongly about rail were surely out in force, since the mayoral primary:
As the Pacific Business News explains, [Mayoral candidate] Cayetano "campaigned on an anti-rail platform that turned the race into a referendum on the city's $5.16 billion rail transit project." Both Caldwell and Carlisle are apparently pro-rail.
On the other hand--if I squint, Cayetano's precinct-level performance looks like it has a negative relationship with Hirono's or with Hannemann's (on the handful of precincts in both Honolulu and HI-02), but Wessa tells me these aren't statistically significant.  So maybe there's more going on.

Let's go back to the Civil Beat, since they'll be better at giving context to the specific locations:

Case won just four of 51 districts statewide: Kailua, Hawaii Kai, East Honolulu and Waikiki.

[...]

The wealthier areas Case won could be tough for Hirono in November. There were 13 House districts where Hirono secured between 50 percent and 55 percent of the Democratic Party primary vote, including the Waialae seat currently held by retiring Republican Barbara Marumoto and other districts across the Windward side and southern shore of Oahu.

None of those relative weak spots — emphasis on relative — were on neighbor islands.

Case won only a few precincts--42-03, 48-03, 49-05, 49-06, 50-01, 50-02, 50-03, 50-04, 51-02, 51-03, 51-04.  Gabbard did quite well in all of these, with the exception of 42-03, which she won, but by less than her overall numbers.  And with the exception of 42-03, these were all in districts near her City Council seat--the sixth, so they might simply be familiar with her.

Back to the Civil Beat:

Hannemann's defeat was nearly universal, with his only district win in 27 opportunities coming in District 9, which includes portions of Wailuku and Kahului on Maui. Hannemann was waiting for the first printout results at a union hall there Saturday, but delays on the Big Island meant he had to leave before the numbers were in.

Hannemann only reached 40 percent support in four other districts — another on Maui, two on Kauai and the North Shore of Oahu.

It's kind of fascinating that the former Honolulu Mayor did best on the Neighbor Islands--which means that geographic familiarity might not be all that's going on here.  

Following the same standard, Hannemann got 40 percent or more in the following precincts:

01-03
02-04
02-05
03-01
03-02
03-03
03-07
05-01
08-03
08-04
08-05
08-06
08-07
09-01
09-02
09-03
09-04
10-03
10-04
12-04
13-09
14-05
15-02
15-03
15-04
16-01
16-03
16-04
16-05
16-06
45-05
46-02
46-03
46-04
47-03
OS 2.
Hirono did far better than her overall results in nearly all of these.  (I'm told that Ed Case is from Hilo.)

Here's the Maui News, back when Hannemann was endorsed by the ILWU Local 142:

In a news conference, Hannemann said he was "humbled and honored" to receive the backing of Hawaii's largest private-sector union, with 20,000 members statewide and around 15,000 on Neighbor Islands.
That certainly suggests the labor's clout is strongest on the Neighbor Islands--and many of these strong Hannemann/Hirono precincts are there as well.  House Districts 1-7 are on the Big Island, while 8-12 are on Maui, and 14-16 are on Kauai.  The rest seem to be on what the Civil Beat called the "North Shore" of Oahu--and what seems to be the more rural part of Oahu.  

Conclusion:

The simplest interpretation of the 2010 Hawaii Democratic primary results is that both of the most liberal candidates won.  And that's true--and many voters surely voted Case/Hannemann or Gabbard/Hirono.  

But there's significant evidence that there was a different dynamic going on, and one that didn't follow the sort of liberal/conservative dimension that we tend to focus on.  It might have had something to do with one or more of the following interlocked factors:

-The local rail project.
-Labor union support.
-Instate vs. outstate.
-Party outsiders vs. party insiders.

And those are just my guesses.  Again, I'd be very interested to know more, since I know we have some really knowledgeable Hawaiians on this site.  I'm very interested.  Who would have ever thought that Ed Case and Tulsi Gabbard would have any kind of correlation about anything?

6:15 PM PT: I only remembered this in the comments, but the 46th and 47th House Districts are where, as Inoljt pointed out, Mitt Romney did very well in the Hawaiian caucuses.  There's a Mormon temple there, at Laie, and Hannemann is a Mormon.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 05:09:49 PM PDT

  •  I am a Jersey girl, but I have spent a lot of (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FishOutofWater, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

    time in the Kahului area of Maui. When I was there in June, there seemed to be a lot of one-the-ground support for Mazie Hirono. We regularly saw her supporters out on the roads with signs.

  •  You need to consider ethnic alignments, too (6+ / 0-)

    Hawaii is hard to analyze because there are a number of factors that aren't obvious to mainland observers.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 05:26:48 PM PDT

    •  Truth. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FG, MichaelNY

      Unfortunately, I have trouble looking at American Factfinder/American Community Survey results on this computer--but that's definitely something to look at.

      I'm not sure how it would factor in, though.  Case is white, Hirono is Japanese, and Hannemann and Gabbard are both, oddly, half-Samoan and and half-white/European.  (See Hannemann's wiki and Gabbard's.)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 05:30:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mormon angle with Hannemann? Looks complicated (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        but the labor/establishment issue may be the most important one.

      •  I don't have solid ethnic data either (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        but I can offer some anecdotal observations from my years living on Oahu.  Generally speaking, Waipahu and Kalihi are the two most heavily Filipino areas, Aiea/Pearl City is heavily Japanese, Hawaii Kai and Kailua are more Caucasian, Waianae/Nanakuli and Waimanalo are very Hawaiian, and there is Chinatown just west of downtown Honolulu.  Most of the rest of the island is actually pretty well mixed.

        I can't speak as well for the neighbor islands as I almost never visited.

      •  it's a class (0+ / 0-)

        based society.  Different criteria for classification.

        What we are seeing is a return to journalism as a contact sport. - Me

        by nolagrl on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 03:28:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  One thing to keep in mind (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, bfen, MichaelNY

    is while those of us approaching this election from a national perspective saw HI-02 as a contest between a liberal (freshly minted, perhaps) and a more conservative Democrat, I don't think that dynamic actually played out as it did in the Senate race (which really was an ideological fight).  

    Hirono won big in the liberal areas, especially so on the neighbor islands which are the most Democratic areas of the state (John Kerry won Oahu with just 51%, while hitting 60-61% on every other island).  Case took the moderate and conservative areas of East Oahu...they overlap quite well with the two state Senate seats the GOP holds/has held recently.

    As you note, the HI-02 primary did not see such a clear distinction, and I think that it's because local Democrats did not see Hannemann as the more conservative of the two.  He's been a Dem politician for decades, and is known more for being the labor and rail candidate, not for his socially conservative positions.  Gabbard truly is a blank slate, with barely any record in the state house (1 term) and the city council (also 1 term).  She ran her campaign on generic Dem bullet points (ending the war in Afghanistan, saving Medicare, etc.) and simply outworked Hannemann, who still was suffering poor approval ratings from his bad run for governor two years ago.

    Earlier I had mentioned that rail, while a huge issue in the mayor race, was more subdued in the federal elections.  But I think Hannemann still got hurt badly by it in the anti-rail parts of Oahu, which unfortunately for him are the rural parts of the islands which are in HI-02.  The pro-rail parts of the islands would be the more urban areas in HI-01, as they are the main beneficiaries of rail.

    Gabbard struggled with name recognition on the neighbor islands for most of the campaign, and in the end I think that is why Hannemann did relatively better there, as well as because of his strong union support.

    •  But it seemed like Hannemann (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY

      did better in the more rural parts of Oahu than he did in the more rural parts--e.g., he got blown out in the Kailua area but did a bit better in HD 46.  It occurs to me that's where that Mormon temple is, or around there, though.  (And of course, Gabbard seems to have some connection to Kailua.)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 06:09:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Still (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I very much appreciate your perspective--I didn't know the neighbor islands were the more liberal, for example.  The name recognition thing is certainly possible.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 06:12:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I guess I could see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY

      how the weak inverse correlation might be pieced together from unrelated and coincidental factors:

      -Gabbard's low name recognition in the Neighbor Islands.
      -Gabbard's strength in Kailua.
      -Hannemann's strength in the Laie/Mormon temple area.

      Still...most of the precincts here are on the Neighbor Islands, so I don't know if that's sufficient to give us even this weak correlation, since those coincidental factors are mostly on Oahu or between Oahu and the neighbor islands.  I re-ran the regression limited to HD 1-16, and the r-squared got even worse--it's like 0.11!--but it still seems to be a statistically significant if weak correlation.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 06:29:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Progressives discussed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Progressives always distrusted Mufi.  He was perceived as a moderate/blue dog. There were many emails and discussions on whether Tulsi could be trusted. The endorsement by Abercrombie's wife was important. People started believing Tulsi would be progressive and it built on itself. The future will tell whether she will lets us down.

    •  I am, uh, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      well-aware of the controversies around Gabbard's past :).

      What's interesting to me is trying to figure out how much Gabbard won the primary and how much Hannemann lost it.  Obviously she ran a good campaign and has a profile and biography that any campaign manager would die for, but Hannemann, as whoever it was said, has a bad track record in Democratic primaries and is, as you say, "perceived as a moderate/blue dog".

      So would Hannemann have lost to, say, a boring but conventionally liberal State Senator?  Or did his opponent need to be someone telegenic and interesting, like Gabbard?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 06:18:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I actually couldn't believe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, Odysseus, MichaelNY

        that no one else stepped up besides Gabbard.  I have no doubt one of the many Dem state senators could have easily done what Gabbard did.

        There was a total clown car the last time the seat was open (something like 7 state legislators jumped in) so I was honestly surprised that didn't happen this time.  I knew Hannemann was weak, but I thought he might still be favored against his (at the time) relatively unknown opponents.  So it's a combination of the two...Hannemann sucking as a candidate again, and Gabbard running a very good campaign.  Take away either one, and the result may have been the same, but closer.  But both combined to give us the 20 point thumping Hannemann suffered.

        •  Same. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          When Bernstein talks about the party networks becoming dominant over the candidates...I don't know if that fits in Hawaii, where Gabbard and Hannemann were not exactly career Democratic foot soldiers.

          And I still think someone could have gotten somewhere by becoming the strongest anti-rail candidate, whether or not it had anything to do with anything.  

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 06:35:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Good (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Very good question. I think the endorsements made a big difference.

  •  Odds and ends (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In hindsight, I think (Lt Gov) Brian Schatz could have smoked both Mufi and Tulsi.

    There has been some tradition of deference to older established candidates. Case broke with that in '06 when he challenged Akaka. I think that, more than any blue doggish votes that he took, hurt Case's standing with the voters longer term.

    I am somewhat surprised that nobody penalized Tulsi for wanting to jump ahead of Mufi in the lines for office. I think that's a testament to how much Mufi P.O.'ed some voters in Hawaii. Nevertheless, labor is as strong in Hawaii (maybe stronger) than any midwestern state. And I think Schatz knew that he couldn't pull labor from Mufi.

    Yes, Case has a long family history in Hawaii, ref http://www.edcase.com/... -- it confirms (well, not with a birth certificate...) that Case was born in Hilo.

    Kailua on Oahu (there's also a Kailua that's a non-trivial town in the middle of the Big Island) is also where the President vacations -- and is (relatively) easily acessable from Honolulu via the H-3.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Tue Aug 14, 2012 at 11:02:57 PM PDT

  •  Great diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    Only part I disagree with is this:

    Hannemann spent election night partying with labor groups

    Not for very long he wasn't.

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:30:16 AM PDT

  •  This Hawaii Resident Says "Good Analysis" (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry I came late to your party. You may remember I gave you mixed reviews for your earlier analysis of Tulsi's network of support. Maybe if you hadn't blamed my home town of 96734, I might not have objected quite as much.

    For a non-resident, I think you managed to figure out the interplay of the different factors to account for the differences in voting patterns for the two candidates favored more by Hawaii progressives.

    (Setting aside Esther Kiaaina and Bob Marx, who "also-ran," and were both more progressive, though not as viable.)

    Labor split differently in the two races, as did "newcomers" versus oldtimers. You caught that. Congrats.

    I was no fan of Tulsi and I sniped at her consistently throughout the campaign, but she ran a VERY impressive campaign. I disagree that another candidate could have defeated Mufi, despite his unpopularity. In a multi-candidate field like this, the trick was to emerge as the Anti-Mufi candidate. Tusli had no chance to do that until she reversed her positions on gay equality, reproductive rights and the wars overseas.

    The public perceived Tulsi as a political outsider of sorts. But Senator Daniel Inouye is the most influential figure in Hawaii Democratic politics and Inouye signalled he would welcome a victory from either Mufi or Tulsi. Some of his top associates opened doors and made connections for Tulsi very early on. In addition, she had support from Senator Akaka's people, including his wife and a son and some of his D.C. staff.

    Beyond this, Governor Abercrombie's team plunked behind Tulsi from the very beginning. (Abercrombie and Mufi are probably the most bitter enemies in current Hawaii politics.) So this "outsider" had the backing of the Governor, one of the US Senators and neutrality from Senator Inouye.

    Once Emily's List came on board, and then the Sierra Club, none of the other non-Mufi candidates had a chance, regardless of their qualifications or personal charm.

    But I still insist the factor you were reluctant to look at too closely last time, her involvement with the Chris Butler religious/political/economic network, is a very improtant key in her election. Her campaign had a "grassroots" character in addition to these institutional supports. She had dozens, perhaps hundreds, of followers of Chris Butler forming the core of her campaign organization, going door to door, placing yard signs, doing roadside signwaving, etc. As progressives, we often envision the mass mobilization of volunteers as our best alternative to the better-financed, pro-corporate candidates. But it is rare we are able to pull it off.

    Tulsi accomplished this, using Butler's followers.

    Tulsi has been identified in articles friendly to her as a follower of Siddhaswarupananda Paramahamsa (Chris Butler). India Abroad: Tulsi Gabbard On Course to Create Political History

    And in India West: Hindu Tulsi Gabbard Wins Primary for Congress in Hawaii

    There will undoubtedly be more articles once she formally wins and is sworn into office, truly becoming the first Hindu elected to the US Congress.

    This does not satisfy your concern whether it is fair to label the group a "cult" or whether that term has any explanatory power in help understand her rise, her background or how she is likely to serve as a member of Congress.

    Tietack suggests Brian Schatz might have been able to "smoke" both Mufi and Tulsi. I agree Brian is one of the top second-tier figures in Hawaii Democratic politics. He has a great future. But Brian was not right for the congressional race for several reasons. First, he has a young family and has said he does not want to move them out of Hawaii to Washington, D.C., an eminently reasonable point. Second, Brian has gotten where he is by safely building ties with all the various networks within the Hawaii Democratic Party. While he is not the "darling" of any of these constituencies, he is at least their "second choice." He is one of the few major political figures who gets along well with both Governor Abercrombie and Mufi Hanneman, as well as with Senator Inouye. And with environmentalists, most the unions, and progressives. Brian is on track to become Governor, so long as he plays it safe and no other major figure emerges who would collide with that goal. But if he had tried to run for Congress against Mufi and against the desires of the Abercrombie crew, he would have been stymied.

    Final point. Please avoid calling Hawaii residents "Hawaiians." Unless they are actually of Hawaiian ancestry. It exasperates native Hawaiians to see the word misused in that way. And it is a glaring sign an author doesn't know much about the state. The phrase "residents of Hawaii" should serve most of your needs.

    Thanks for your work, Xenocrypt. I truly appreciate what your bring to the table.

    "... if I can lead you into the promised land someone else can just as easily lead you back out again." --Eugene Debs

    by Shliapnikov on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 06:43:24 PM PDT

    •  What you say about Schatz' family is true (0+ / 0-)

      However, as I think you suggested, much of the HI D establishment was looking for an alternative to Mufi.

      You're correct about the value of "waiting your turn" in Hawaii politics. Ed Case is the "case" of what happens when you don't wait your turn. But I don't think Schatz had to wait. I submit that Schatz --was-- already higher up in the HI D hierarchy than Tulsi.

      What I don't see about your note -- how such a now hypothetical move by Schatz into HI-02 would have gone against Abercombie's wishes. I suggest as Schatz already had "second tier" support from the HI D establishment, he would have emerged at the default anti-Mufi candidate, and Tulsi would have waited her turn.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:25:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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