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U.S. representative (R-WI) Paul Ryan attends a vigil in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, August 7, 2012. The killings of six worshippers at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin has thrust attention on white power music, a thrashing, punk-metal genre that sees the white race u
Back in March when Paul Ryan was merely auditioning for the vice presidency, Ethan Pollack at the Economic Policy Institute tried to measure how big a crater the congressman's budget proposal would dig in the labor market.

His analysis showed that implementing Ryan's monstrosity would not only flatten very modest job creation—a monthly average in the past six months of 130,000 new jobs—it would obliterate millions of existing jobs. If nothing else changed, and Ryan's plan was on the books, by 2014, the official unemployment rate that is now at a stubbornly high 8.3 percent would rise to 13 percent, nearly three points above the depths of the Great Recession. And we already know how much that official rate undercounts the ranks of the jobless. Pollack:

Against a current policy baseline, the budget cuts discretionary programs by about $120 billion over the next two years and mandatory programs by $284 billion, sucking demand out of the economy when it most needs it and leading to job loss. Using a standard macroeconomic model that is consistent with that used by private- and public-sector forecasters, the shock to aggregate demand from near-term spending cuts would result in roughly 1.3 million jobs lost in 2013 and 2.8 million jobs lost in 2014, or 4.1 million jobs through 2014.
Gross domestic product would drop 3.5 percent.

Add in Ryan's proposed cuts in Medicaid and we're talking another 862,000 lost jobs. That's a total of almost 5 million jobs lost. In two years.  

As Pollack points out, Ryan also wants to cut taxes for folks like, well, the guy whom he hopes will have the job that Ryan will be just a heart attack away from come Jan. 21. As has been noted, under the Ryan plan the first number in Mitt Romney's tax rate would be a zero followed by a decimal point. Not just for Mitt, of course. For Ryan himself and a few score thousands of others who are so wealthy they see it as an insult when they are lumped in with the rest of the one percenters. For those earning a million a year, a $300,000 tax break. How many jobs do you suppose will get created as a consequence of that upward transfer of wealth?

The resulting loss of federal revenue from this budget based on austerity insanity would, Pollack says:

[...] likely result in a small job loss because it shifts the tax burden from high-earners to middle-class households. Low-income households will also face higher taxes because Ryan would allow certain tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and the American Opportunity Tax Credit to fall from their current levels. Redistributing money away from people who spend more of each marginal dollar of disposable income (low- and moderate-income households) to those with much higher savings rates (high-income households) is broadly recognized as leading to a decline in aggregate demand.
If you prefer to avoid economic terms like "decline in aggregate demand," just think of it as: no job, no money, no consumer expenditures, no hiring, no job, no money. Think of it as a smoking crater. Government programs to provide shovels and gloves won't be enough to sustain a digging out from that crater because Ryan's budget contains a prescription for amputating big chunks of such programs.

In a sane world, even in the wacky, Ronzo world of three decades ago, this kind of stuff would be laughed out of the room, off the planet even. But not now. And so they keep bringing up budget proposals like this, punctuated with flatter and flatter tax rates. One bracket for all could very well be the GOP slogan in 2016. That's a prescription for even more lost jobs.

Originally posted to Meteor Blades on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:03 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The problem is that the true believers think that (10+ / 0-)

    a flat tax is a fair tax. As we all know, middle and working class folks have done best when taxes are steeply progressive. But, hey, the flat tax nonsense comes from the same folks who don't want to tax capital gains at all. Talk about the rentier class.

    •  Just remember one thing. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kay Observer2, PrahaPartizan

      They want it all.

      An honest heart being the first blessing, a knowing head is the second..Jefferson's Letter to Peter Carr

      by JugOPunch on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:58:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And when focus groups are shown.... (8+ / 0-)

      details of what the GOP proposes....they dismiss it out of hand because they can't believe a politician would ever do such things.

      The pro-Obama New Priorities PAC stumbled across this phenomena early in 2012 in its focus group testing. When they informed a focus group that Romney supported the budget plan by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and thus championed ending Medicare as we know it while also championing tax cuts for the wealthy, focus group participants simply didn’t believe it. No politician could be so clueless.

      Incredulity may complement what New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd dubbed Romney’s strategy of “hiding in plain sight.” Romney refuses to release his tax returns, scrubbed the records and e-mails of his time as governor and as head of the Olympics, keeps secret details of his Bain dealings and covers up the names of his bundlers. And then, he’s able to announce extremely cruel policy positions with impunity, because the voters just can’t believe that’s what he is for.

      When you realize how many Americans are prepared to vote for Romney and Ryan without having a clue as to what they propose to do, you begin to despair.

      Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

      by dweb8231 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:20:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I get emails from the Red Cross asking me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ItsSimpleSimon, Anne was here

    if I am ready for the next big disaster .
    What should I pack away for a winning r/r ticket ?

    "Drop the name-calling." Meteor Blades 2/4/11

    by indycam on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:08:53 PM PDT

  •  Biblical prophecy to get the 1% to planet Kolob (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades
    If you prefer to avoid economic terms like "decline in aggregate demand," just think of it as: no job, no money, no consumer expenditures, no hiring, no job, no money. ... Think of it as a smoking crater. Government programs to provide shovels and gloves won't be enough to sustain a digging out from that crater because Ryan's budget contains a prescription for amputating big chunks of such programs.
    Genesis 19:24 says, "Then the Lord rained upon Sodom and upon Gomorrah brimstone and fire from the Lord out of heaven." "Brimstone (burning sulfur) and fire raining down from heaven" ...Abraham "looked toward Sodom and Gomorrah, and toward all the land of the plain, and beheld, and, lo, the smoke of the country went up as the smoke of a furnace."
    Revelation 9:1-2 says
    The fifth angel sounded his trumpet, and I saw a star that had fallen from the sky to the earth. The star was given the key to the shaft of the Abyss.
    When he opened the Abyss, smoke rose from it like the smoke from a gigantic furnace. The sun and sky were darkened by the smoke from the Abyss.

    Präsidentenelf-maßschach"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:23:09 PM PDT

  •  They have the Repub perfect built in excuse (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If Rmoney/Ryan win the election, initiate their plans, and watch the entire US economy crater, they will simply use the excuse the Rs have been preparing and planning to use - IT'S OBAMA'S FAULT! GIVE US 4 MORE YEARS AND WE'LL FIX EVERYTHING (cough cough suckers cough cough)!!

    (romney)/RYAN 2012 - You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.

    by Fordmandalay on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:42:27 PM PDT

  •  Greek unemployment rate is 23% (7+ / 0-)

    23.1 % to be exact. It is even higher in Spain. Want to see what an austerity program does to the economy? Look at Europe.

  •  I don't care about 'aggregate demand' (0+ / 0-)

    What I care about is, do we need whatever it is these jobs produce (or can we get it cheaper). If so, we should keep them. If not, get rid of them.

    The government is supposed to provide vital services. It isn't a jobs bank.

    (-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
    Leadership doesn't mean taking a straw poll and then just throwing up your hands. -Jyrinx

    by Sparhawk on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:51:36 PM PDT

    •  Have You Told The Defense Contractors (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      If government programs aren't a jobs bank, how come the defense contractors are peddling that line hard to prevent sequestration when the Republicans decide to take us over the cliff?  Why are the Red States so anxious to make sure that they keep all of those military bases in their locales?  It all depends on what can legitimately be considered "vital services" and whose ox gets gored in the process.  The Ryan budget axes services which people need in the current circumstances and many against which they've contributed their entire lives.  All that Romney, Ryan and the Republicans want to do is to repudiate the debt they owe the working people of America for the free ride Reagan engineered thirty years ago.  Pay up, monkey boy!

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 09:26:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Politics are politics (0+ / 0-)

        No one wants to lose jobs in their district, and no company wants to lose federal contracts. But the only jobs and contracts the government should produce is stuff that is necessary. Everything else is just a transfer payment.

        (-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
        Leadership doesn't mean taking a straw poll and then just throwing up your hands. -Jyrinx

        by Sparhawk on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:17:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's problem with transfer frim unproductive? (0+ / 0-)

          The uber rich are by and large the idle rich.  They make little.  They don't procude little.  Except paper (well, digital notations nowadays). And many of those who do produce do so on the taxpayer's dime, e.g. Ryan's road company.

          Heck, they consume little.  How many solid gold comodes do you need anyway?  How many more people would have been hired if the $ spent on pampering Rifalca had been spread among people who would have spent it on consumer goods?  How many jobs in OH if the $ sent to swiss bank accounts or the $ 2 Trillion stashed off shore where spent here?  Or if the money spent to move our factories to China, Vietnam, etc., just b/c was?

          In a 'perfact world' you might say 'the free market' would ensure redistribution from unproductive to productive uses. The world ain't perfect, this market anywhere near free AND IT CAN NEVER BE.  

          Capitalism inherently enpowers those with the most wealth with the means to guarantee they keep what they have and gooble up the rest.  That's why there's the Sherman Anti-trust Act.  

          Simply from an utilitarian economic pt you WANT massive government redistrubtion.  Capitalism can not work for more than a few decades without it.  That's the lesson of the Great Depression.  Only fools, 'austrian economists' and Vultures think otherwise.

          And that's not even looking at the MORAL side of the equation.  You know, that whole Christian thing Thugs claim to love sooo much more than everyone else and 'you should die, heathen!'

          'Course, as a Vulture, Mr.1% is quite happy to see the American economy and society rot and die.  More food for him and his.

    •  What the hell are you talking about? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      People will buy less stuff when they're spending more on Medicare, or get less in food stamps, or have a smaller Social Security check.

      Good, necessary jobs disappear when we push consumers (who, when active, create jobs by spending money) deeper into poverty.

  •  One bracket for all might be the slogan. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Dirt poor for for you will be the reality.

    An honest heart being the first blessing, a knowing head is the second..Jefferson's Letter to Peter Carr

    by JugOPunch on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 06:55:42 PM PDT

  •  Over my lifetime (6+ / 0-)

    I have watched the GOP lose its collective mind.

    And it still befogs me that they are so insane.  And that even 25 percent of the country believes their lies (although that can be directly attributed to the death of the Fairness Doctrine and Fox, respectively).

    To make the argument that the media has a left- or right-wing, or a liberal or a conservative bias, is like asking if the problem with Al-Qaeda is do they use too much oil in their hummus. Al Franken

    by Youffraita on Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 07:06:30 PM PDT

  •  Ah, back in the day (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, KayCeSF

    when Ryan's mentor, Jack Kemp, was considered an extremist...

    Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
    ¡Boycott Arizona!

    by litho on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:07:05 PM PDT

  •  This needs to be hammered home... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Meteor Blades

    I was watching CNBC yesterday... and an "Assets Manager" was on with Maria Bartiromo. He clearly stated that the economy would suffer if Ryan's plan was enacted... but we needed to "take the pain" now.

    And yes, he was supporting Ryan.

    Romney/Rove 2012: If you liked Bush's Brain... you'll love Romney's.

    by jethrock on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:12:37 PM PDT

  •  This makes me think of the Ruben Bolling comic (0+ / 0-)

    Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob" -= Franklin Delano Roosevelt =-

    by sailmaker on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:15:33 PM PDT

  •  Once and for all, this group doesn't give (0+ / 0-)

    a shit about "jobs." They crave power and influence and profits, that's freaking it. If they cared about jobs they'd have come up with a plan besides rewarding corporations that don't give a shit about "jobs" either.

    "Jobs" is just a talking point, just as "We love our troops"
    or "we want to save Medicare" is.

    I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation - the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence. --The Doors of Perception, Aldous Huxley

    by Wildthumb on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:18:30 PM PDT

  •  If the Romney administration only (0+ / 0-)

    cost America 5 million jobs, that would make it one of the best Republican presidencies since Eisenhower.

  •  A thought experiment (0+ / 0-)

    if god forbid this occurs ... and causes this much human misery -- would it finally mean the end of supply side wingnut teabag economics once and for all? I DO NOT say an Obama loss would be worth it because the damage is almost incalculable. But if Romney wins ... would the madness then die?

    •  Remember Bush got a second term (0+ / 0-)

      If they were to win, they would blame it all on the Democrats or on something else, and simply continue what they've been doing, lie and then lie some more. Things could always get worse, a lot worse. Sometimes governments do implode.

  •  And how much do we pay him for this? (0+ / 0-)

    If this is the best plan he can come up with then maybe "congressin' ain't his forte."  The proverbial room full of monkeys with a typewriter could come up with a strategy to make things worse.

  •  Almost the same number of votes suppressed (0+ / 0-)

    by all of the draconian laws, and bad court decisions rendered by the fascist money machine new crop of elected officials.

    What will it take to get to those low info (by choice) voters who 'don't do politics'  to take this stuff seriously?

  •  3.5 percent drop, ok pronoun trouble on my part (0+ / 0-)

    3.5 percent drop as in

    New GDP  = Current GDP-3.5
    New GDP  = Current GDP - (3.5 of Current GDP)

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:35:01 PM PDT

  •  What else is new? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    We all know that the RMoney - Lyan platform is to

    Eviscerate the middle class
    Evaporate the working class
    Eliminate the underclass
    Elevate the upperclass.

    Build more workhouses.

    I know you believe you understood what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. -- S.I. Hayakawa

    by tapu dali on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:44:11 PM PDT

    •  Build more workhouses. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tapu dali

      and debtors prisons

      The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

      by JML9999 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:55:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A Dickensian society is their wet dream. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Sick people. Totally sick, depraved, and without a scintilla of compassion.

        And they call themselves "Christians"? It is to laugh.

        I know you believe you understood what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. -- S.I. Hayakawa

        by tapu dali on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:06:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Shock Doctrine USA (0+ / 0-)

    They want to CRASH the Economy.  Again.
    No Accident. No Mistake. On Purpose.

    The People Buying the Presidency for Mitty then get
    to do whatever-the-Fuck-they-Want. No Questions Asked.
    That includes Buying what's left for 2-3 cents
    on the Dollar.  The Bain Capital Coup D'Etat.

    In 1928, a Lot of Sorry Bastards thought "Mien Kampf"
    was just a Trashy Political Novel, written by a Raving
    Lunatic.  By the Year 1939, those Sorry Bastards
    found out what that Trashy Political Novel really Was.

    Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are Telling Everyone
    Exactly what they want to Do.

    Time to start Throwing Wrenches and Wooden Shoes
    into the Great Rethuglycant Gearbox.

    On Giving Advice: Smart People Don't Need It and Stupid People Don't Listen

    by Brian76239 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:03:27 PM PDT

  •  Awful, but really, I think much wose like! (0+ / 0-)

    I think that all of the proposed scenarios MB's piece cites are not unlikely ... Except ... When you start talking about dropping something as radical into such a dysfunctional climate, I think it would likely be far worse.

    By example, I'd cite the Long Depression of 1873' which either lasted 65 months from the beginning of the Panic of 1873 -- or until the end of the Panic of 1893. With lincoln's death in 1865, ther was nothing to stop the corporatist republican party from demanding specie, I.e. gold, in payment for inflated Greenback dollar debt from the war. The lenders were in the driver's seat and they wanted deflation that would make them richer. It was to be the republican policy for decades to com ...and generally, some economists consider overall Gopmpolicy has not changed in overal direction.

    The US economy was in recession, according to the NBER.Org - official arbiter on cycles - for 22 years and one months of recurrent recessions and panics from  April of 1865 through December of 1900.
    Grover Cleveland was president for two terms, but other than having ethics, he was as conservative as the GOP. Still, only one relatively short dpreview sessions started during his administrations - he was tarred with the Panic of 1893 which began only three months before he took office
      Cleveland was also tarred with another recession that began on the heels of the 1897 recession for much the same reason. There was a money shortage. The republicans had demonetized silver in 1873,  for related but different reasons than hose Bismarck. The effect was a world depression. The effect was to choke off small farmers, new industruay, etc. when investors and lenders pulled pack, collapse and panic set in.

    Republicans triggered four more recessions between January, 1901 and the beginning of wilson's first term. Wilson had two recessions, one that was typical of war ends, short and not sharp, another in 1929' which wrapped in. The war impact and republican obstruction. Its reputation for roaring aside, the republicans spent too much of the 20s in recession, then in August of 1929' Hoover inadvertently pushed it over the edge, leading to a43 month recession that ended when finally he kept offuc and a non ideologue could begin to work.m

    So it goes. The chances  of recession are significantlantly higher during GOP rule as is the isk of economic dislocation, especially job dislocation. They're not friendly to American and no matter how many exceptions we make for agri work and other similar, they will never have nough because hey take dvantage.

    We're at a point where the pressure from an emboldened far right hiding behind other labels threaten everything that matters economically.
    It would be nice

  •  Our Massa's'll take care of us Mr.1% sez he checkd (0+ / 0-)

    And you just have to believe! Vulture and Voucher.  After all, they're runnning for President, for Pete's sake!

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