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Pollster.com sans Rasmussen and Gallup trackers (our usual baseline).

Philadelphia Inquirer on the 6 point F&M Obama lead:

So why is the incumbent winning, considering that 57 percent of those surveyed believe that things in Pennsylvania are headed in the wrong direction? The most likely factor is that, gosh darn it, people just seem to like the president better. Obama's favorability rating in the poll is 46 percent, while Romney - the subject of withering attack ads portraying him as an out-of-touch millionaire vulture capitalist - is at just 32 percent.

"He comes across as distant, aloof," Madonna said of Romney, who was trounced by Obama, 57-30, when voters were asked specifically "who best understands the concerns of average Americans." Still, the race tightened slightly to a 47-42 Obama lead when voters were asked if they leaned toward a candidate. Madonna said just 7 percent of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided - a sliver that will be targeted with millions of dollars of ads between now and November.

The pollster said he believes the race here would have to tighten before the voter-ID law - assuming it's upheld on appeal - would become a factor. The irony, he noted, is that if the race is seen as neck-and-neck in the fall, more voters will be more highly motivated to make sure their identification is valid.

Remember, the Bain attacks aren't working. The GOP says so.

TPM on new Michigan poll:

The latest poll, conducted on Monday, shows that Romney's selection of Paul Ryan has had no immediate impact on the race in Michigan.  Obama's lead remains the same even when the names Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden are included in the survey question.  

After several polls showed an increasingly tight race in the Great Lakes State earlier in the summer, Obama appears to have re-gained his footing to re-emerge as the favorite there.

National Journal:
Rural America almost always votes reliably red. But many farmers say they’re growing uneasy with the Republican presidential ticket’s opposition to renewable-energy policies that have helped them economically — and that could hurt the GOP this year in traditionally friendly farm country.
Yahoo Finance:
With less than 12 weeks until the elections, Hirsch gave us the latest snapshot of what the market is signaling about the November outcome.

"It's suggesting that Obama has a better chance than people think," he states. "Incumbent victories are accompanied by much larger gains in the stock market. The Dow Jones has been up significantly higher in election years when incumbents win. And it looks like the track that we're on here."

The DJIA has seen nice gains this year, up nearly 8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has climbed an impressive 12%.

"The important thing is that we have an incumbent running for re-election, and that's been good for the market overall," says Hirsch. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, since 1901 the DJIA has posted 9% average gains during the year when an incumbent is seeking re-election.

The real correlation is with GDP, but whatever. Stories like this reach a different audience than we do.

Seattle PI:

Among those unlikely to vote, according to the poll, 43 percent support Obama’s re-election, 20 percent back Republican Mitt Romney, 18 percent would opt for a third party, with 15 percent undecided.

David Paleologos, the pollster who did the survey, said its findings yield a good news-bad news verdict for Obama.

“The good news is there is a treasure chest of voters he doesn’t even have to persuade:  They already like him and dislike Romney,” he said.  “He just needs to unlock the chest and get them out to vote.

“The bad news is that these people won’t vote because they feel beaten down by empty promises, a bad economy and the negativity of both parties.”

Before nodding your head too vigorously as to the "reasons," remember every year scads of people don't vote, and always find an excuse not to. No different this year.

Gail Collins:

Today, let’s consider what the selection of Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate will mean to the American health care system. To start, there’s good news for senior citizens: You can stop worrying! Neither Ryan nor Romney wants to change Medicare coverage for people over 55.

Also, the news media is going to quit calling you senior citizens. You are now Medicare Sensitive Voters.

Any other questions? Let’s start with you over there in the corner — the one jumping up and down and hysterically waving your arms.

I am 54! How come nobody cares about my health care?

As Romney said on “60 Minutes,” the Republican ticket is “looking for young people down the road and saying, ‘We’re going to give you a bigger choice.’ ” So the good news is that: A) you are getting a choice, and B) you are now officially a young person.

No, I’m not! I am totally falling apart! And now you’re telling me that people just one year older than me will get guaranteed government coverage that everybody likes, while I am going to be getting a choice? What if I don’t want a choice?

Freedom is always good.

Mischiefs of Faction (poli sci blog):
Romney, like McCain, has been concerned about retaining the support of conservative activists given his own (recent) past with moderation, and he wanted a running mate who would remove some of the doubts about his ideological purity. Ryan has become the darling of fiscal conservatives and many in the Tea Party movement over the past few years, and tapping him sent a signal to those parts of the GOP that Romney takes their concerns very seriously and is willing to tie his fate to theirs. Romney may well have made this decision on his own, but partisan actors certainly played a very powerful role in constraining that decision.
Mark Blumenthal:
If the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as vice-presidential running mate to presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney has produced a "bump" for the GOP ticket, it is somewhere between small and non-existent. That's the conclusion from a handful of new polls released on Wednesday.
We agree.

Greg Sargent:

Overall, most voters I spoke to, even those who lean Republican, have absorbed a long view of the Obama presidency. They think he was dealt an extraordinarily tough hand and that he’s probably done the best he could under the circumstances. They reject the idea that Obama’s response to those circumstances was a failure — as Romney has charged — only professing disappointment in him for falling short of their expectations, which they have since calibrated.
NY Times on the vanishing swing voter:
Part of the difficulty in identifying swing voters derives from confusion about the term “swing voter” itself. These voters might describe themselves as “undecided,” for example, or as “persuadable.” Often, they call themselves “independents,” although many who identify that way are not.

Myths about the behavior of these voters are pervasive and persistent: For example, that undecided voters break for the challenger as Election Day nears. (Data have shown this is often not the case.)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Wow in PA wow! (12+ / 0-)

    Terry Madonna is a Repub leaning, but not Tea Party, hack at times. If he's talking about PA in this manner.................why is Romney even using up valuable attack money here?

    Not that I'm complaining.

    •  I thought Repubs quit buying ads in Pennsylvania? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26, tb mare, AreDeutz

      At least, that's what I read here about a week ago.

      (they're hoping to steal it instead, is my guess.)

      If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

      by Bush Bites on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:49:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They hit a lull, but they're baaaaack (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bush Bites, Candide08, IM, AreDeutz

        The ad is lame and just hits Obama on old "shovel ready" type stuff.

        •  Wonder if it's response to that.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mostel26

          .....bought-and-paid-for judge's decision that stopping black people from voting is what america's all about?

          If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

          by Bush Bites on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:59:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  started before that decision (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DRo, tb mare, Perspective, AreDeutz

            I don't think they were hand in hand. In either case I hope that only "positive" out of that ruling is that it really motivates GOTV efforts here in PA and we can do some work down ballot getting the PA house back in the "D" column.

            Also, there is a chance that the PA Supreme Court strikes down the law. The Chief Justice, Ron Castile, is far from a Democrat/Progressive but he has been giving somewhat of a middle finger to the state Republican Party over past few years. He threw out there redistricting plan and kept the existing lines in place for the 2012 ballot, a nice win for Democrats.

            •  Some PA educated swing voters are (0+ / 0-)

              really going to be offended by all this "voter suppression" stuff the Republicans are pulling in Pennsylvania.

              I'm thinking about the Philly suburbs - the sort of people who read The Philadelphia Inquirer, etc.

              I wonder, though, if the older voters (and PA has many) really believe that Obama is cutting $731 billion off their Medicare.

              Any ideas?

        •  Same ad started (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mostel26, AreDeutz

          running in  NC yesterday. Not very good.

          Divide and rule,the politician cries,unite and lead is the watchword of the wise. Goethe

          by our better angels on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:05:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Is it Rmoney or outside money? (0+ / 0-)

        I think it is far more important if it is the Rmoney campaign. The outside sources have money to burn, and I wouldn't be surprised if they place ads in states not under contention.

        Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

        by NoFortunateSon on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:51:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for clarifying that--I thought this was the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mostel26, One Opinion

      pop singer, although I couldn't imagine what she was doing commenting on this subject.  

      "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

      by Diana in NoVa on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:23:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think that, surprisingly, a lot of people (19+ / 0-)

    realize:

    - Obama inherited a huge shit pie.
    - Republicans have blocked him at ever turned.
    - Rmoney and the Rthugs are worse.

    Also, people just don't like Rmoney.

    "Drudge: soundslike sludge, islike sewage."
    (-7.25, -6.72)

    by gougef on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:36:37 AM PDT

  •  Ryan has become a darling of fiscal conservatives" (21+ / 0-)

    "Fiscal conservative" must mean those who are too obtuse to follow or understand  Ryan's actual voting record while in the House: for the invasion of Iraq, for Medicare Part D, for the bush tax cuts, all items added to the budget without a hint of funding.

    ",,, the Political whorehouse that is Fox News." Keith Olbermann

    by irate on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:37:49 AM PDT

  •  Matt Miller has good op ed in today's Wash Post (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xaxnar, DRo, Texdude50, coppercelt, Laconic Lib

    It is titled Recognizing Paul Ryan’s ‘tell’ when he is trying to avoid something and I explore it in this posting to which I invite your attention

    "what the best and wisest parent wants for his child is what we should want for all the children of the community" - John Dewey

    by teacherken on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:37:55 AM PDT

  •  Not sure they can attribute it all to attack ads. (13+ / 0-)
    ...the subject of withering attack ads portraying him as an out-of-touch millionaire vulture capitalist...
    He IS an out of touch millionaire.....anybody can see that who isn't also an out of touch millionaire (and I include the corporate media talking heads in my grouping of out of touch millionaires).

    If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:38:13 AM PDT

  •  Block the Vote versus Rock the Vote (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, mdmslle, Odysseus

    It's no wonder Republicans are putting so much effort into making voting harder for likely Democratic voters. They figure people who've been waiting 4 years to vote "that man" out of office are more likely to make it to the polls than people who mildly approve of the President, or are vaguely uncomfortable with Romney.

    "No special skill, no standard attitude, no technology, and no organization - no matter how valuable - can safely replace thought itself."

    by xaxnar on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:42:27 AM PDT

  •  It they think they're beaten down now. (4+ / 0-)
    “The bad news is that these people won’t vote because they feel beaten down by empty promises, a bad economy and the negativity of both parties.”
    Wait 'til President Mitt makes takes away their only chance for health care and lets the banks get after their asses again.

    Hope you enjoy it, losers.

    If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:43:00 AM PDT

  •  Messina to Mittens: Give us five more years of tax (4+ / 0-)

    returns and we won't bother you any more......Trust me...lol

  •  people have finally "got it",GOP steals everything (0+ / 0-)

    GOP just has a great team of liars, but they steal everything that isn't nailed down.

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:44:34 AM PDT

  •  Mitt's a multi-millionaire vulture capitalist (0+ / 0-)

    and people don't like that

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:46:44 AM PDT

  •  When Republicans are winning it's all (0+ / 0-)

    about the swing voters. When they're losing, there are no swing voters. Or is that just me.

    We're fools whether we dance or not, so we might as well dance.

    by PowWowPollock on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:49:59 AM PDT

  •  Why is Obama winning? (7+ / 0-)

    Obama is a rock star. Romney is a cheap lounge singer doing a poor version of Pat Boone.

  •  What they never seem to realize (17+ / 0-)
    So why is the incumbent winning, considering that 57 percent of those surveyed believe that things in Pennsylvania are headed in the wrong direction? The most likely factor is that, gosh darn it, people just seem to like the president better.
    Why is he winning? Maybe because there is some chunk of that 57% that, like me, believes things are headed in the wrong direction in that

    (1) elected Republicans, in Congress and mostly in a bunch of states, are acting out their long-held dreams of a New Feudalism and a New Inquisition, dreams so repugnant that until recently they didn't even speak them out loud; now they're actually enacting them into law,

    (2) Congressional Republicans have used every means available to them to obstruct, subvert, and sabotage constructive action, for the deliberate purpose of causing harm to the country to prevent the President's re-election, and

    (3) the scariest thing that has happened in my lifetime is the all-out assault on democracy that is occurring right now via outright buying of elections and partisan-targeted voter suppression.

    None of those problems will be remedied by voting against Obama, voting for Romney, or staying home (or the functional equivalent of staying home: voting for a third party candidate). The only way to begin the long and excruciating process of fixing these problems is to work, donate and vote for Dems at every level of national office, and most state offices as well.

    In other words, for many of us the "wrong direction" that the country is heading is a Republican direction. Why are the Rs and the pundits too clueless to realize this whenever they are citing those statistics?

    "These are not candidates. These are the empty stand-ins for lobbyists' policies to be legislated later." - Chimpy, 9/24/10

    by NWTerriD on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:52:32 AM PDT

    •  Perfectly said (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jakewaters, mdmslle

      nwterriD thanks for stating.

      Divide and rule,the politician cries,unite and lead is the watchword of the wise. Goethe

      by our better angels on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:13:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Considering I lived under Jim Crow (7+ / 0-)

      I can't say what's happening now is the scariest thing I've endured. But these attempts at regression are distressing for the country. I just hope more Republicans wake up and see that their rights are vulnerable as well. The ruling goopers would not hesitate to go after them if they were a threat.

      Strange times we're in. Yes, as you say, the country is headed in the wrong direction. The GOP is headed over a cliff and taking the United States along for the ride. Sad.

    •  Agreed! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      schnecke21

      I have the misfortune of living here.  :-)

      Where we're heading is the obstructionist congress' fault.  Where are the jobs?  Sure not being considered in any bill I've seen.  That's not the President's fault.

      Where is any positive legislation coming out of Congress?  It's not in any bill I've seen.  That's not the President's fault.

      Voter suppression?  Really?  I don't see Obama's name on that, either.

      Yes, this country is heading in the wrong direction and at the present instant Obama has nothing to do with that.

      (-6.25, -6.77) Moderate left, moderate libertarian

      by Lonely Liberal in PA on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:52:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What are the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HudsonValleyMark

    specific reasons for eliminating the Gallup and Ras polls?  (late to the science of all this, sorry)

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:52:37 AM PDT

  •  The problem (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, Barbara Gordon

    is NOT that Obama is ahead in the poll because he clearly is.  The PROBLEM is that teabaggers are able to supress enough votes for him to win.  

  •  Obama is winning for nobody likes Romney. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:56:10 AM PDT

  •  Headlines from (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, Laconic Lib

    the Bizarro World (Free Republic)

    Will America Forsake Israel?

    Biden sent home to Delaware to start weekend early

    Swing state poll: After picking Ryan, Romney now leads in Ohio, Virginia — and Florida

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:57:57 AM PDT

    •  i actually enjoy that they don't acknowledge (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KibbutzAmiad

      reality.

      we owe much to their refusal to acknowledge anything that doesn't fit their worldview.

      If they want to believe that, i'm cool with it.

      What I regret is that I didn't establish myself as a FGOP "pollster". I'd be making bank. The work isn't hard, just pull some numbers out your ass.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:23:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Enjoyable work out (6+ / 0-)

    watching the Morning Joe team laugh about Mitt's big whiteboard moment. The whole table joined in the mocking. Sorry Mitt, everyone agreed that something this lame "must have been the candidates idea" which doesn't say much for your political prowess - even David Gregory couldn't suppress a grin. Some days the round table speaks truth.

  •  First Obama ad on Medicare (9+ / 0-)

    Interesting observations about this ad:

    1.  The Obama team uses the word "Obamacare" instead of the ACA in the ad.  I think that the Obama campaign has fully embraced "Obamacare" and it will go down in history along side Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security as great social programs created by Democratic Presidents.

    2.  The Obama team doesn't really mention Romney.  Instead they have decided that the Ryan plan IS the Romney plan.  Romney helped them on this when he said in Wisconsin that his plan is almost identical to Ryan's.

    3.  This isn't that hard hitting of an ad.  It is more just laying down the facts. I fully expect that Obama Medicare ads to get really hard hitting the closer we get to the election.  Perhaps the Obama team has decided that education on the differences of the plans is essential right now.  I would like to see Obama go to Florida and barnstorm about the Ryan plan.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:07:15 AM PDT

    •  Obama cares- the other guy doesn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      that's the message that echoes and should reverberate through the rest of the campaign.

      "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

      by jakewaters on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:19:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's smart to do it this way. First of all (6+ / 0-)

      there' way too many "evil ominous ads" already. It's not necessary to use them for this issue right now, if ever.

      Seniors and people in that 45-54 sweet spot really genuinely want to know the truth. A sensational "political campaign ad" is not necessary. People want to know about their possible health care without all the hyperbole. It's a serious issue and the people most effected by it want serious treatment of this. Imagine you're a 53 year old woman with, say, endometriosis. Last thing you want is some bullshit "political ad" designed to scare the fuck out of you. If you're confused you're just like, "what the fuck is the truth?"

      The AARP is a trusted organization for 50+ people and retirees. and I notice that the ad cited them twice, once on the "cuts" obamacare made to medicare and once on the Ryan plan AND interestingly, it didn't say Ryan plan will end medicare. It says what the AARP said about it which was, "It MAY raise costs for seniors". This is more credible and believable than the claim that it ends medicare (even though it's true). The graphic that shows $6400 figure is a smart way to punch home the massage without saying something that polls show people just can't wrap tjeir heads around (end of Medicare?).

      It's smart.

      This is why  trust this campaign Not every attack or counter punch should be done in the first hour after. People around here have been screaming: WHERE ARE THE TV ADS NO
      NOOEZZZZ!!!!!DOOM!

      But on an important issue that really could change this election into a landslide, it's important to get it right more so than being fast and first.

      Seems to me they focus tested this to death and this language is what works.

      Good on the Obama team.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:33:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd like to see some 30-second ads where Obama (0+ / 0-)

      looks directly into the camera and "sets the records straight," so to speak. Obama's warmth and genuinesness is his greatest asset.

      "Democrats have the heart to care."

      by jeepdad on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:28:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not that I speak for all indies or swing voters (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Diana in NoVa, DRo, Red Bean, gramofsam1

    but I was an indie until 2009 *over 25 years). I swas not a partisan and I didn't follow politics that much.

    What always went into y decision was "who's the best person for this job right now, given the circumstances right now?"

    And if I was an indie voter still today, that person woud; be Obama because 1) we were losing 750K jobs a MONTH when he took office. That stopped almost immediately when the stimulus was passed. So it must have done SOMETHING. 2) he pulled back on the war in Iraq and is stopping the one in Afghanistan. Doesn't seem anxious to send more troops into another war. I'm more comfortable with him on foreign relations. 3) I'd be nervous about the romney and ryan's plan for ACA health care and medicare, and 4) i'd figure, give obama another four years to see if he can move things forward. he didn't do such a poor job that I think he should be replaced.

    I can say that would be the extent on my logic on it. Unfortunately I never voted downticket or off years, which is equally (or more) important.

    But maybe this comment will be helpful to kossacks with friends an relatives who are indies or swingers. Wait, swing voters.

    For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

    by mdmslle on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:15:26 AM PDT

  •  Wrong direction (8+ / 0-)

    The msm makes the grand assumption that the right track/wrong track numbers are entirely a reflection upon the president.  But it is quite possible to be unhappy with the direction of the country while still supporting President Obama and his agenda.

    It appears that others feel the same way. I recall a recent CNN/Opinion Research survey showing a majority of American believe that the GOP hasn't cooperated enough with President Obama. The survey also showed a majority of Americans want Obama to have MORE influence over the direction the nation takes. This tells me that the right/wrong track numbers are not entirely a reflection upon Obama's presidency, but it also includes a Congress with historically low approval ratings.

  •  THIS is what gets my goat every time! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, tb mare, Odysseus, Laconic Lib
    ... remember every year scads of people don't vote, and always find an excuse not to. No different this year.
    An excuse not to vote:  WHY don't we hold elections on Saturdays and Sundays, when a lot of people have free days?  There are people who don't get paid leave of any kind--like contractors.  When I was a freelance editor, if I needed to go to the doctor during the work week, I lost a couple of hours' pay.  And I didn't get benefits with a freelance job.

    More people would vote if they didn't have to take off work and lose money!  So why aren't we like Australia, a country that sets up voting facilities on the beach and in maternity wards?

    There's a lot of talk about apathy, yadda yadda yadda.  Making it too hard to vote is in large part responsible for the "apathy."

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:21:43 AM PDT

    •  lost of folks who don't vote work weekends. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      schnecke21, DSPS owl, askew, Diana in NoVa

      i think the key to getting this demographic is early voting or mail-in voting, not hitting the polls.  They aren't going to do that. Some genuinely don't have time.

      You're working some shit job and you're off a different day every week. You have no idea which day until the schedule comes out. meanwhile on your day off you're busy hitting the laundrymat or grocery store and all the other shit you need to do and can't any other time.

      You think they're going to go stand in some line at a polling station? They aren't.

      I ran in to tons of these people when I was canvassing in 2008. First of all they don;t believe it matters whether they vote. And in some small ways they're probably right. They've had shit jobs under all kinds of presidents. Our congress doesn't really recognize or represent them. THey are invisible and the laws passed in congress don't effect their day to day lives. (why is the minimum wage still 7.25/hr and Obamacare doesn't really help them - they really don't have enough money for any kind of health care. They damned near medicaid eligible and haven't bee to a doctor in...ever).

      So the hardest part was convincing them that their votes mattered. It was a tough sell and I failed many times.

      Then there's the issue of when to vote. Best thing you can do with this population, if you can convince them t matters to vote, is to get them registered, get them signed up for absentee balloting, give them your phone number and have thme call you when they get their ballot. You can go over to their house, answer questions as they fill it out and take it to the supervisor of elections for them. That's what I had to do with a ton of folks in 2008.

      there people are not going to go to polls, even if they have a day off to do it. Their lives are very difficult and they'd rather stay home on a day off if they could or take care of things they need to do. Voting is too abstract.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:43:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obamacare will help them. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        Their purchase of insurance will be subsidized by the federal government through the exchanges to make it affordable, or they will finally qualify for Medicaid under the program's expansion.

        These people need to be voting with absentee ballots, even if they have to make up an excuse.

        "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

        by SueDe on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:20:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd like to see the numbers on the health care. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SueDe

          I want to believe what you say but these people often make a bit too much for medicaid but don't have a single dollar extra to spend every month.

          I wonder what the premium would be for them? Do you know?

          Someone bringing home say just enough to pay rent, buy food and get back and forth to work; constantly shuffling around bills to avoid shut offs and repossessions and evictions really has zero extra money.

          I'm hoping I'm wrong and I'd like to find out how much is the premium for insurance. there's a huge swath of these voters out there and I'd like to know for sure.

          For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

          by mdmslle on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:31:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This website can help you (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mdmslle

            find the answers to your questions.  At least it will give you the guidelines for what the federal regulations are for all the states.  It's the government website set up to explain the ACA in easy to understand terms.

            "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

            by SueDe on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:21:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Health reform subsidy calculator: (0+ / 0-)

            Kaiser Family Foundation

            For example, two 30-year old workers, married filing jointly, with full time jobs/no benefits, making $8.00/hr (slightly above minimum wage) with two dependents, combined gross annual income about $32,000, living in a part of the  country with medium health care costs.

            the calculator yields the following:

            Average annual unsubsidized health insurance cost for their age, family status, and location:  $10,108.

            Maximum % of income they have to pay for insurance if they are eligible for a subsidy:   3.21%

            Actual family required payment $1,028 (about $86/month)

            Government Tax Credit  $9,081

            Annual out of pocket costs (copays, etc,  if they make claims)  zero to a maximum of $4167. Which sounds like a lot, but in the case of a catastrophic illness would limit their exposure to that $4000..

            Don't forget that the ACA mandates that a long list of preventative services are to be free ie no copays or deductables.  

            We are the principled ones, remember? We don't get to use the black hats' tricks even when it would benefit us. Political Compass: -6.88, -6.41

            by bmcphail on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 03:57:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  More on the tax credit: (0+ / 0-)
              Health Insurance Premium Tax Credit

              Starting in 2014, individuals and families can take a new premium tax credit to help them afford health insurance coverage purchased through an Affordable Insurance Exchange. Exchanges will operate in every state and the District of Columbia. The premium tax credit is refundable so taxpayers who have little or no income tax liability can still benefit. The credit also can be paid in advance to a taxpayer’s insurance company to help cover the cost of premiums. On May 18, 2012, the IRS issued final regulations which provide guidance for individuals who enroll in qualified health plans through Exchanges and claim the premium tax credit, and for Exchanges that make qualified health plans available to individuals and employers.

               --Internal Revenue Service

              We are the principled ones, remember? We don't get to use the black hats' tricks even when it would benefit us. Political Compass: -6.88, -6.41

              by bmcphail on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 04:02:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  You are absolutely right, mdmslle (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        Thanks for this comment!

        "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

        by Diana in NoVa on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:44:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  perhaps not very large part (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Diana in NoVa

      In 2008, Washington state -- which conducts its elections by mail -- reported turnout about 62% of the voting-age population. That's about 4 points higher than the national average, but a long way from 100%. (Not everyone of voting age is actually eligible to vote, but still....) No doubt it would have been higher if Washington had been a battleground state.

      Minnesota, with Election Day Registration and... well, there are all kinds of great things about Minnesota. Anyway, it was first in the country, at almost 75%. Maine, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin also were in the 70s.

      I agree that more people would vote if it were easier, and that is worth doing. But I think that apathy mostly comes from other sources.

  •  He's running against an empty suit... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Diana in NoVa, mdmslle

    with no vision beyond more tax cuts for people like himself and screw everyone else.

    Mitt's a Ken doll with poisoned needles sticking out of him.

    Mitt Romney treats people like things. And he treats things - corporations - like people.

    by richardak on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:23:03 AM PDT

  •  Pawlenty on MJ this morning just said that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo

    the 'Tagg called to tell people they weren't the VP' was misreported, and that he and Portman actually did get calls from Mitt himself.  I was actually a bit impressed that he merely said misreported, and didn't try to make some claim about lies or distractions.  He must not have gotten the Republican memo on dealing with Dems this season, esp. when they make mistakes.  Kudos for a bit of class, Pawlenty.

  •  Because Rmoney is very obviously an asshole, (0+ / 0-)

    and a rich asshole at that, in a time of "austerity".

    NOW SHOWING
    Progressive Candidate Obama (now - Nov 6, 2012)
    Bipartisan Obama returns (Nov 7, 2012)

    by The Dead Man on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:29:47 AM PDT

  •  2000 in reverse (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lonely Liberal in PA

    Ryan's mission is to be the wanna have a beer with guy, except that a lot of people would wanna have a beer with Biden. . .

    •  I'd rather beer it up with Biden. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare, EcosseNJ

      Yeah, he's got a mouth on him.  I appreciate that, and I'm sure he turns into one of those hysterical drunks who tells terrible stories about people he doesn't like.

      Ryan probably gets smarmy and starts getting even more self-superior when drunk, hitting on everything in a skirt, and wondering why they can't see the studliness of his political views.

      (-6.25, -6.77) Moderate left, moderate libertarian

      by Lonely Liberal in PA on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:57:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Privatization Of Medicare By Privatizing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gramofsam1

    Ryan will not only effect 54 and younger, but will effect me who am not 59.  The reason why is that I will not be able to afford private health insurance because I will be on a fixed income and $6,000 or more a year will be a little steep.  I will want to stay on traditional medicare.  The problem is that the money in traditional medicare will be used for vouchers for the rich seniors and all the money will be drained out of traditional medicare (single payer) and more than likely will die.  What will be left is an expensive program that is only for rich seniors and middle class and the poor will just die.  

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:52:47 AM PDT

    •  Check out "the canard over current seniors" (0+ / 0-)

      post at Andrew Sullivan's site.  It's an excellent summary of how Ryan's plan would absolutely impact those over 55.  And there's a follow-up "canard over current seniors, ctd" that takes on how seniors would be screwed over by Ryan's gutting of Medicaid.

      Together they're a very clear indictment of Ryan's lie that people over 55 would be unaffected.  And interestingly, they were written by Sullivan's readers, not by journalists.

    •  The Romney/Ryan plan will gut Medicaid too, (0+ / 0-)

      so that option won't be available to you.

      I don't think regular folks who vote Republican realize what they're in for.  They better hope they strike it rich before they retire - or plan to retire in another country.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:25:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm Always Surprised... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DSPS owl, MBishop1

    ...when pollsters think that a negative trend in "country going in the right direction" reflects on President Obama's performance.  Many of us believe it's going in the wrong direction based on Congress' performance and are happy to vote for President Obama and work for down-ticket Dems.

  •  It's been 6 days and we have had 2 (0+ / 0-)

    non-partisan polls (CNN for MI and F&M for PA), where are the polls???

    •  here (0+ / 0-)

      LATEST POLL UPDATES

      WI-2012 President: 49% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (CNN 8/13-14)
      IN-2012 Senate: 45% Donnelly (D), 43% Mourdock (R) (Garin-Hart-Yang 8/9-8/12)
      IN-2012 Senate: 41% Mourdock (R), 39% Donnelly (D), 3% Horning (L) (Market Research Insight 8/6-8/9)
      FL-2012 President: 45% Romney (R), 43% Obama (D) (Rasmussen 8/15)
      PA-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R) (Franklin & Marshall 8/7-12)
      WI-2012 President: 48% Romney (R), 47% Obama (D) (Rasmussen 8/15)

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:50:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What should convince unlikely voters to get up (0+ / 0-)

    and vote?
    The 2010 elections. Those should have proven to everyone that their individual vote counted, esp. if it wasn't exercised.
    We should be hearing a lot from the Dem party about this. A lot.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:08:19 AM PDT

  •  Polls (0+ / 0-)

    I'd feel more comfortable about this if the state-by-state polls didn't show the race narrowing dramatically in the past two weeks.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:13:11 AM PDT

    •  Not enough data (0+ / 0-)

      State polls especially are variable, and you either have to look at averages or within the same poll. You can't compare the purple strategies poll to PPP and come to a conclusion. More data needed, especially next week and beyond.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:56:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Big - or bigger picture. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not a wonk, but our to pure curiosity I took a gander at the National polls via Real Clear Politics and thought to myself - well according to Raz what did their polling show before Ryan was announced?
        Their 8/13-8/15 poll shows Mitt up by 1
        Their June poll shows Mitt up by 4.

        Now either RCP is missing some data or the so-called huge up-swing appears to be missing.
         No, I didn't look a swing states polling - which is probably more important, but ....

         The same non-swing holds true for Gallup.   What is a non-wonk to think?    
       

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