Pollster.com sans Rasmussen and Gallup trackers (our usual baseline).
Philadelphia Inquirer on the 6 point F&M Obama lead:
So why is the incumbent winning, considering that 57 percent of those surveyed believe that things in Pennsylvania are headed in the wrong direction? The most likely factor is that, gosh darn it, people just seem to like the president better. Obama's favorability rating in the poll is 46 percent, while Romney - the subject of withering attack ads portraying him as an out-of-touch millionaire vulture capitalist - is at just 32 percent.Remember, the Bain attacks aren't working. The GOP says so.
"He comes across as distant, aloof," Madonna said of Romney, who was trounced by Obama, 57-30, when voters were asked specifically "who best understands the concerns of average Americans." Still, the race tightened slightly to a 47-42 Obama lead when voters were asked if they leaned toward a candidate. Madonna said just 7 percent of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided - a sliver that will be targeted with millions of dollars of ads between now and November.
The pollster said he believes the race here would have to tighten before the voter-ID law - assuming it's upheld on appeal - would become a factor. The irony, he noted, is that if the race is seen as neck-and-neck in the fall, more voters will be more highly motivated to make sure their identification is valid.
TPM on new Michigan poll:
The latest poll, conducted on Monday, shows that Romney's selection of Paul Ryan has had no immediate impact on the race in Michigan. Obama's lead remains the same even when the names Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden are included in the survey question.National Journal:
After several polls showed an increasingly tight race in the Great Lakes State earlier in the summer, Obama appears to have re-gained his footing to re-emerge as the favorite there.
Rural America almost always votes reliably red. But many farmers say they’re growing uneasy with the Republican presidential ticket’s opposition to renewable-energy policies that have helped them economically — and that could hurt the GOP this year in traditionally friendly farm country.Yahoo Finance:
With less than 12 weeks until the elections, Hirsch gave us the latest snapshot of what the market is signaling about the November outcome.The real correlation is with GDP, but whatever. Stories like this reach a different audience than we do.
"It's suggesting that Obama has a better chance than people think," he states. "Incumbent victories are accompanied by much larger gains in the stock market. The Dow Jones has been up significantly higher in election years when incumbents win. And it looks like the track that we're on here."
The DJIA has seen nice gains this year, up nearly 8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has climbed an impressive 12%.
"The important thing is that we have an incumbent running for re-election, and that's been good for the market overall," says Hirsch. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, since 1901 the DJIA has posted 9% average gains during the year when an incumbent is seeking re-election.
Among those unlikely to vote, according to the poll, 43 percent support Obama’s re-election, 20 percent back Republican Mitt Romney, 18 percent would opt for a third party, with 15 percent undecided.Before nodding your head too vigorously as to the "reasons," remember every year scads of people don't vote, and always find an excuse not to. No different this year.
David Paleologos, the pollster who did the survey, said its findings yield a good news-bad news verdict for Obama.
“The good news is there is a treasure chest of voters he doesn’t even have to persuade: They already like him and dislike Romney,” he said. “He just needs to unlock the chest and get them out to vote.
“The bad news is that these people won’t vote because they feel beaten down by empty promises, a bad economy and the negativity of both parties.”
Today, let’s consider what the selection of Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate will mean to the American health care system. To start, there’s good news for senior citizens: You can stop worrying! Neither Ryan nor Romney wants to change Medicare coverage for people over 55.Mischiefs of Faction (poli sci blog):
Also, the news media is going to quit calling you senior citizens. You are now Medicare Sensitive Voters.
Any other questions? Let’s start with you over there in the corner — the one jumping up and down and hysterically waving your arms.
I am 54! How come nobody cares about my health care?
As Romney said on “60 Minutes,” the Republican ticket is “looking for young people down the road and saying, ‘We’re going to give you a bigger choice.’ ” So the good news is that: A) you are getting a choice, and B) you are now officially a young person.
No, I’m not! I am totally falling apart! And now you’re telling me that people just one year older than me will get guaranteed government coverage that everybody likes, while I am going to be getting a choice? What if I don’t want a choice?
Freedom is always good.
Romney, like McCain, has been concerned about retaining the support of conservative activists given his own (recent) past with moderation, and he wanted a running mate who would remove some of the doubts about his ideological purity. Ryan has become the darling of fiscal conservatives and many in the Tea Party movement over the past few years, and tapping him sent a signal to those parts of the GOP that Romney takes their concerns very seriously and is willing to tie his fate to theirs. Romney may well have made this decision on his own, but partisan actors certainly played a very powerful role in constraining that decision.Mark Blumenthal:
If the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as vice-presidential running mate to presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney has produced a "bump" for the GOP ticket, it is somewhere between small and non-existent. That's the conclusion from a handful of new polls released on Wednesday.We agree.
Overall, most voters I spoke to, even those who lean Republican, have absorbed a long view of the Obama presidency. They think he was dealt an extraordinarily tough hand and that he’s probably done the best he could under the circumstances. They reject the idea that Obama’s response to those circumstances was a failure — as Romney has charged — only professing disappointment in him for falling short of their expectations, which they have since calibrated.NY Times on the vanishing swing voter:
Part of the difficulty in identifying swing voters derives from confusion about the term “swing voter” itself. These voters might describe themselves as “undecided,” for example, or as “persuadable.” Often, they call themselves “independents,” although many who identify that way are not.
Myths about the behavior of these voters are pervasive and persistent: For example, that undecided voters break for the challenger as Election Day nears. (Data have shown this is often not the case.)