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Leading Off:

ND-Sen: After mashing a few eggs into their own face, then receiving a firm kick in the shins from their intended victim, Crossroads GPS is back up with a new (and entirely different) ad attacking Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, seeing as their last one got pulled off the air for blatant falsehoods. I'm thinking this one won't fare any better. Crossroads now tries to accuse Heitkamp of engaging in "pay-to-play" while she was state AG, claiming she received campaign contributions from a Rhode Island attorney, Jack McConnell, who performed work for the state in a large, multi-state tobacco lawsuit.

There's a big problem, though: McConnell didn't receive a penny in compensation from North Dakota. (He represented other states in the matter on contingency, but evidently he included the Peace Garden State pro bono.) What's more, all this nonsense came up last year, too, when McConnell was nominated by President Obama to serve as a federal court judge. He was confirmed, too—and do you really think Senate Republicans, who never have any problem blocking judicial nominees on the barest pretext—would have let McConnell's appointment go through if this "pay to play" bullshit were real? I know this will sound crazy, but it's almost like Karl Rove is a compulsive liar or something.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Check it out: GOP Rep. Jeff Flake is going all Newt '94: "Department of Education?" ponders Flake in a recent news clip. "If we could eliminate that completely, I would do so."

FL-Sen, VA-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce is out with two new very similar ads attacking a pair of Democrats, Florida Sen. Bill Nelson and Virginia Senate hopeful Tim Kaine, accusing them of being the pawns of "union bosses." The Kaine ad is backed by a $257K buy, Nelson $162K.

HI-Sen: This new ad from Linda Lingle annoyed me from the get-go. "Do the math," demands the announcer. Hell no! You cannot make me do any math! Get bent, teach!

IN-Sen: Though it doesn't get polled quite so often, Indiana's Senate race is starting to look a lot like Virginia's: the numbers are very tight, and fall within the same general range, every time. And that's certainly the story with two new polls that were just released on Thursday. The first one, from the Dem-aligned Majority PAC and Center Forward, courtesy Garin-Hart-Yang, shows Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly leading Republican Treasurer Richard Mourdock 45-43. The second is from the other side of the aisle, conducted by Market Research Insight for the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, but paints almost the same picture, with Mourdock up 41-39. I really do wish both of these survey releases included presidential toplines, though.

NV-Sen: Patriot Majority USA is reupping the buy for their most recent ad (launched about a week ago) targeting GOP Sen. Dean Heller on Medicare and taxes, to the tune of $239K. That roughly doubles their total spend to air the spot.

OH-Sen: I know that micro-targeting, and adapting your message (and medium) to fit your niche audience, is all the rage these days, but Republican candidate Josh Mandel may have taken this to a new level, reportedly adopting a previously-unheard Southern accent while stumping with Mitt Romney in Beallsville, located near the West Virginia border in the state's Appalachian southeast. Mandel is from the Cleveland area; New York magazine helpfully has compare-and-contrast videos of the Beallsville appearance and a speech in the different part of the state. (A commenter there gets in the best zinger: "Maybe his voice was changing because he's finally going through puberty.") (David Jarman)

PA-Sen: Many pollsters seem to have their own little quirks, and Franklin & Marshall has one of the most distinctive ones: credible-looking margins but huge, huge numbers of undecideds. Their topline in the Pennsylvania Senate race is a freakishly low 35-23 advantage for Dem Sen. Bob Casey over Tom Smith (the race was 42-21 in June). Their screening question (their emphasis) is "Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [candidate] in the election, or are you still making up your mind?" Maybe the heavy emphasis their callers put on the capitalized words serves to stir more doubts in respondents than with other pollsters? However, even when they allocate the non-CERTAIN! respondents, that moves up to only 43-28 for Casey, which is still pretty, um, uncertain. Presidential toplines are 44-38 in Barack Obama's favor, and they also find continued unpopularity for GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, who's at 32/42 favorables.

Meanwhile, Smith is out with a new ad; it's a boilerplate negative piece against Casey that's unlikely to stand out from the clutter, although one line does stand out, that the "failed stimulus" paid for "jobs in China." (Of course, that claim is bogus.) (David Jarman)

VA-Sen: Majority PAC and the League of Conservation Voters are teaming up on what they're calling a $1.6 million ad campaign to go after Republican George Allen and fight back against Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce. There are two spots (both available at the link) that are very similar: One attacks Allen for voting for "special tax breaks for oil and gas companies"; the other says he voted for "billions in special tax breaks for companies that move our jobs overseas."

WI-Sen: I've long maintained Tommy Thompson is rusty and carries baggage, and just days after winning the GOP nomination, he's already given us proof of both. From a press conference held at a campaign event:

"When I was governor and I was employed [by] the people of the State of Wisconsin, I released my tax returns, but I've been in the business world, and the question is, 'Am I going to release my tax returns?’ The answer is 'no'. No. The answer is 'N-O.' What part don’t you understand?"
He sounds both crotchety and like he has something to hide—just the way I like 'em.

House

AZ-06: Super PAC National Horizon keeps going after Rep. Ben Quayle, shelling out another $63K on TV ads—I'm guessing it's still their "Prince Ben" spot—to keep him from winning the GOP primary. (Quayle seems pretty doomed anyway.) All told, the group's now spent over $172K on this effort.

FL-26: If the campaign of bogus "Democrat" Justin Lamar Sternad does indeed get tied back to GOP Rep. David Rivera, then the already ethically-embattled incumbent could be in for even more trouble. The Miami Herald spoke with the owner of a print shop—which just coincidentally also does work for Rivera—who says that Sternad spent up to $30,000 on mailers before Tuesday's primary... but the big honking problem here is that Sternad didn't disclose any of this on his FEC reports. (Indeed, the mailhouse operator said Sternad paid in cash.)

Also, I've mentioned this before, but Sternad claims his campaign manager is one Ana Alliegro, who just so happens to be Rivera's on-again/off-again girlfriend, and describes herself on her Twitter account as "Republican Political Guru and Conservative Bad Girl!". Alliegro hasn't been returning phone calls from the press, and even told reporter Marc Caputo on Twitter to "kiss mine, too." Hinky doesn't begin to describe. Fortunately, Sternad's attempts to damage Joe Garcia (his only reason for being in the race) were for naught, since Garcia handily won the primary with 53%.

IL-08: The CREDO super PAC has a new poll out from PPP showing tea party freshman Joe Walsh about exactly where you'd expect him to be: Democrat Tammy Duckworth is beating him 50-41. Walsh's favorables are a little higher than I'd have thought, though, at 39-44. Unfortunately, the release doesn't seem to include presidential toplines.

IL-10: Here's a second Illinois House poll, this time from GQR on behalf of the House Majority PAC and SEIU. GOP freshman Bob Dold! is tied with Democrat Brad Schneider at 46 apiece, though the polling memo is slim and doesn't offer any other details except for the results of an informed ballot test.

MI-01: With all the political ads we've already seen, it's easy to forget that the House committees haven't been playing at all, until this week. Well, that changed Thursday, with the DCCC's first independent-expenditure ad, and befitting the close polling that we've seen in that race, they're starting in Michigan's 1st, where GOP frosh Dan Benishek faces a rematch against Dem Gary McDowell. They hit Benishek on—what else, given what's been in the news this week?—Medicare, but without mentioning Paul Ryan by name (though they do say "he voted to essentially end Medicare" and citing the oft-mentioned "$6,400 more" figure). Luckily for them, Benishek has supplied enough on-the-record ammunition on Medicare that they can let him do the talking for himself, instead of trying to tie him to Ryan. (David Jarman)

MI-11: The most natural reaction to finding out about Republican ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's loosey-goosey attitude toward signature-gathering in 2012 (especially in the context of finding out that he was spending most of his time writing a bad sitcom pilot) was that it was evidence of his having lost interest in serving in the House. New evidence, though, suggests that this has been a pattern and practice for McCotter over the previous few cycles.

A look back at 2008 and 2010 petitions found many of the same techniques that got McCotter's staffers in trouble this time; in 2008, for instance, it turns out that 67 of the 177 pages of petitions were either flat-out photocopies or else doctored by cutting and pasting new dates onto 2006 petitions. (While the state's SoS office found the 2012 problems, somehow this escaped their attention the previous cycles.) And here's an interesting bit of trivia: the person who noticed the problems with the previous-years' petitions was local political consultant Mark Grebner, the same eagle-eyed spotter who was the first to blow the whistle on pollster Research 2000. (David Jarman)

NH-01, -02 (PDF): New Hampshire's two congressional races have probably been some of the most poll House contests this cycle, by virtue of the fact that both PPP and UNH like to test them both whenever they conduct a statewide survey. Earlier this week, we saw some numbers from PPP which had both Democrats leading by four points; now we have some UNH results which differ slightly—though the samples are very tiny in both cases (under 300, which is really unacceptably small). In NH-01, UNH has Carol Shea-Porter up 45-43 over GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, while in NH-02, GOP Rep. Charlie Bass leads Annie Kuster 42-37. Still, this polling also points toward "Tossup" status for both races.

NY-18: The Independence Party line is probably the most coveted of the various third-party ballot lines in New York's fusion-voting framework—at least in upstate swing districts—though it's pretty rare for getting or losing the IP line to actually make or break a candidate. Still, Republican freshman Nan Hayworth is probably in for a close race against Sean Patrick Maloney, so it's worth noting that she's not getting the IP line in 2012 (where she got more than 5,000 votes in 2010). An appellate court just affirmed a lower court decision that a signature-gathering screwup invalidated Hayworth's efforts to get on the IP line. (David Jarman)

RI-01: This Dave Weigel piece makes the case that if there's a contest where the Paul Ryan VP pick may save a Dem it's here, where nationalizing the race takes the focus off Dem Rep. David Cicilline's baggage left over from his time as Providence mayor. The main reason to read the piece, though, is running commentary Weigel gets about the race from the always-quotable Buddy Cianci, including:

People like to talk about dishonesty. Whether it’s right or wrong, they blame Cicilline for the budget, and he’s polling lower than whale shit.
(David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sabato unenthusiastic about Ryan pick (8+ / 0-)

    Sabato doesn't seem that impressed with Romney's VP pick in his analysis yesterday.

    He's concerned that on the one hand it can make little difference to Romney's chances of winning since any scenario in which Ryan flips WI is probably one in which Romney's winning anyway; and on the other hand it's liable to switch the campaign focus onto discussions about entitlements rather than the overall shape of the economy, which Sabato considers a poor strategy. As he puts it:

    The lousy economy gives Romney his greatest weapon, but is he actually using it? The Ryan pick suggests otherwise.

    If the election turns into a great debate over the future of entitlements like Medicare, the autumn might produce a useful exercise in civics education. But how does that help a party win a close campaign? Entitlement reform is hardly Romney’s best electoral argument, and Republicans might be leading with their chin on this one.

    I certainly hope so.
  •  Letter from OFA to Romney Campaign: (11+ / 0-)

    From Jim Messina to Matt Rhodes:

    "I am writing to ask again that the Governor release multiple years of tax returns, but also to make an offer that should address his concerns about the additional disclosures. Governor Romney apparently fears that the more he offers, the more our campaign will demand that he provide. So I am prepared to provide assurances on just that point: if the Governor will release five years of returns, I commit in turn that we will not criticize him for not releasing more--neither in ads nor in other public communications or commentary for the rest of the campaign." If you think I am in the mood to fuck around, guess again. We're coming after you on this issue until you feel like you've been VERY THOROUGHLY searched by the TSA. I hope you are ready, bitches!"
    Seriously now, OFA, destroy them on Medicare. This adbetter only be the beggining.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:55:42 AM PDT

    •  When you're explaining, you're losing (5+ / 0-)

      It's upsetting that Obama lost the first move advantage on Medicare (i.e., the Ryan vouchers).

      His team is good, but they blew this one.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:16:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am not sure that applies here. (0+ / 0-)

        Every campaign has to "explain" at some point, which here can mean "respond." There's always some back-and-forth. If they get bogged down in this for days on end, then they might be in trouble. Right now, though, this just to be expected.

        My biggest problem is that the ad doesn't seen vicious enough, but then, that might not be wise right now.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:32:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It doesn't seem like we really disagree (0+ / 0-)

          "Medicare vouchers" should have first been used in an aggressive attack ad, not in a response ad.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:43:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I just mean that (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, pademocrat

            I don't think we can say we are losing because we aren't explaining or responding in any other way than a campaign would in a back-and-forth. We knew they were going to make this charge--they made it in 2010--and addressing it is essential. But so far, it hasn't affected our side in nearly the same way as Romney's taxes have affected the other side. If in a few days, let alone a few weeks, we are fighting back against this charge even more than we are now, you'd have a point. For now, though, I think we still hold the upper hand.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:58:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also, just to be clear, (0+ / 0-)

              A LOT would have to change for us to not have the upper hand and, more directly, my issue is with how seemingly not biting the ad is, although as I said above, that could be more appropriate now than I realize.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:14:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Yours is a hypberbolic overstatement, but... (4+ / 0-)

        ...I, too, would've liked an attack ad up front.

        But the bottom line is that Romney has only card to play and has played it.

        OFA has a lot of Medicare attack ads that can be easily cut and will work, and I'm expecting will do so.  Not to mention the Ryan budget does so many other things that are deeply unpopular.

        Medicare is an issue where we can seize the upper hand pretty quickly and easily at any stage given the nature of the Ryan scheme and the media's willingness to publicize it, even if OFA seemed slow to move this time.  

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:43:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How many voters do really you think are aware (0+ / 0-)

        that one ad came out three days before another?  OFA actually attacked on day one with their statements and the web video that got over a million hits, so now you're only quibbling over when an TV ad buy began.  When both ads are running, nothing indicates that one is a response to the other.  I'd rather be the ad with every statement backed up by the AARP logo.

  •  MN-06 -- Bachmann defeatable? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat, cybersaur, pademocrat, Woody

    Despite her massive fund raising advantage, Salon had an article up yesterday suggesting that Bachmann could be vulnerable in November.

    We buying or selling this idea?

    The dream-the-impossible-dream of running hard against Bachmann, Walsh and West in the same cycle, coupled with the Stearns loss.... MMMmmm... that is some serious electoral deliciousness.  If only we could take a run at King's NY-03 district.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:57:09 AM PDT

    •  Bachmann always seems to be vulnerable, (5+ / 0-)

      but never actually loses.

      Besides, it's probably better to leave her in place as the crazy head of the Minnesota GOP.

    •  Has anything changed in (0+ / 0-)

      regards to her fund raising? If not, isn't she still getting most of it through direct mail? If that's the case, there's probably much less than meets the eye, since it's quite expensive to raise money like that.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:01:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's leveraging the Tea Party (0+ / 0-)

        She raised more money in 2010 then any other member of the House, in either party.

        And that was before she started her Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy which should get her great rewards from the kind of people that miss Glenn Beck's chalkboard.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:14:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But again, how was that money raised? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          Direct mail fund raising is expensive--what comes in usually goes out again to just pay for the process of mailing stuff out. You can see that here, where despite raising almost $16 million, she has only $2.23 million cash on hand. That's still quite a lot, especially if her district doesn't have expensive media markets and especially in comparison to Graves. But let's  be clear: she's not running for the House with a $16 million war chest. If she had so much to spare, people would be beating down her doors to ask for help.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:19:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bachmann has an unreal number of campaign workers (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody

            She has more than Amy Klobuchar, FWIW.

            •  I don't doubt she is well funded. (0+ / 0-)

              But she's not holding at least four to five times as much money for us as even the most well funded House member.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:13:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  She does have a high burn rate (0+ / 0-)

                That part is true.

                However, she does hold over a 6:1 cash advantage over the man she is running against. And ultimately, that is the number that matters.

                http://www.opensecrets.org/...

                •  I already noted that above. (0+ / 0-)

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:22:55 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

                  she and Allen West may both have huge burn rates, but that's not any consolation.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:52:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  point to factor in (0+ / 0-)

                  Since she has an enthusiastic donor base that is not located in her district, the money that she is suctioning out of their wallets is not being made available to candidates running in the districts where Bachman's national fan base may actually live.

                  retiring Bachmann would be wonderful in the abstract, but seems like a long-shot option this cycle. It may be a bit easier after the cushion of enthusiasm from her Presidential folly fades.

                  A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                  by Christopher Walker on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:58:15 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  really? (0+ / 0-)

              I'm surprised. She seems so disorganized that I didn't  think she'd have lots of volunteers put in place. Any links perhaps, would love to know 'bout her housecampaigns :)

    •  she may be (0+ / 0-)

      I would think her district didn't appreciate her running for president and she is more concerned about getting media attention than doing her job.
      Also I think her district may be less red than it was.

    •  Sell sell sell (3+ / 0-)

      This is a Republican vote sink. Don't waste your dollars.

      •  Bachmann (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, Woody

        I'm skeptical that any Reep who withstood serious runs in 2006 and/or 2008 and didn't get boned in redistricting is beatable this year. If Dems couldn't beat Bachmann with Tinklenberg in a less-red district in a blue wave year, why are they going to beat her now? I don't think her presidential run is going to cost her any votes. It's the sort of thing that bombthrowers do, and everyone already knew that she was a bombthrower.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:30:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  King is NY-02 now (0+ / 0-)

      and hopefully we can get Kathleen Rice next time around.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:51:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bachmann is vunerable (0+ / 0-)

      There are probably some MN-6 Republicans that are fed up with Bachmann and her antics, and the fact that she briefly ran for President and gained national media attention because of it may have woken up a bunch of people in her district to how crazy Bachmann really is.

      I have MN-6 as Likely Republican at this point, but it is a race to watch. Graves is a strong campaigner, and he's not going to go down without a fight. Of course, Bachmann's not going to go down without a fight, either...

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:43:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Every Romney rejection only reinforces... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybersaur, itskevin

    ...the certainty that there's something really, really bad in there.  

    Mitt Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:16:30 AM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: New Wisconsin Women Vote! ad. (3+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:19:51 AM PDT

  •  Expanding my White Board (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    Can we start a DKos tracking utility to list, rank and watch competitive House races?

    I personally focus more on the Senate and (obviously) the POTUS state polls.  The House never has enough coverage for specific races so I have trouble knowing exactly what to look for or how to get a sense of where we stand.

    From what I've read over the last few days, the only seat switching I see at the moment seems to give the GOP a +3 net gain.

    Dem Pickups (4):  IL-08, IL-10, MD-06 & NY-24
    GOP Pickups (7): AR-04, GA-12, IN-02, NC-08, NC-11, NC-13 & OK-02.

    But I'm sure Im missing more then a few here, right?  Are we looking good against Bass in NH?  Do we have a shot at Lungren in CA?  ..and seriously, can we pull off the upset against West?  I mean, don't tease me with some "Keep hope alive" bullshit.  Do we really have a shot at retiring that Nutbag?

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:24:23 AM PDT

    •  you're missing tons of likely pickups (0+ / 0-)

      CA-41, IL-11, IL-17, FL-09, FL-22, etc...and those are just the low-hanging fruit.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:55:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You think FL-22 is likely? (0+ / 0-)

        That's West.  I would love to know this is true, I just don't know enough about it.

        So all those open seats are going our way?  Awesome!  I guess I need to do more research on those....

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:07:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL-22 is West's old seat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          He ran off to FL-18 when he realized he'd lose FL-22. Now it's a Democratic-leaning open seat.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:25:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  See... I am clearly out of touch in the House (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody

            So FL-18 was Ros-Lehtinen, and so she's going to the 27th (where I assume she is either unopposed or will CRUSH any opponent)?  sigh ....

            ...I gotta find a good House Watch website that summarize and/or graph out all this.

            Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

            by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:38:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yea (0+ / 0-)

              Ros-Lehtinen is a lock in her seat. That's what the Dems get for nomination that ass, Gerald Richman, back when Pepper died.

              Language professors HATE me!

              by Zornorph on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:42:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Just wait a couple days... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody

              I'll have my final baseline analysis out, along with a color coded chart of every district in the US.  

              Not saying that my ratings are always accurate and feel free to make your own conclusions, but it will certainly be a helpful device for any DKE'ers that are following the battle for the House majority.  

              RE Your earlier questions, at the moment I have Lungren, West, and Bass all losing...however all three are in the Toss Up/Tilt Democratic column, so they aren't sure things.

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      MN-8 is clearly a likely pickup.

    •  NH (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, Woody

      Most recent polling shows both Dem candidates up 4 in their NH house races.

      Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

      by ActivistGuy on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:18:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sad to say (0+ / 0-)

      The current outlook seems to be for the Dems net pick up to be, at best, just a handful of seats.

      Here's how Charlie Cook counts them.

      We need 25 seats, iirc, to get the once and future Speaker Polosi we so badly need.

      Slim hope is that often big moves in the House do seem to come very late. Probably voters make up their minds about the Presidency early on, but only focus on the downballot House seats closer to election day.

  •  Almost as if? Lying isnt a condition for Rove (0+ / 0-)

    It's a strategy.  And it has worked well a lot of the time.

    Ancora Impara--Michelangelo

    by aravir on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:32:51 AM PDT

  •  FL Sen RAss: Nelson 47-40 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, bythesea, Woody

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    Also, Obama takes a 1 one lead in Scotty's tracking poll.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:37:34 AM PDT

  •  I started a Paul Ryan butt kicking on WPR today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    noonan2, pademocrat

    on News of the Week on Joy Cardin

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:40:24 AM PDT

  •  Tax Professor Calls BS on Romney's Claims (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, itskevin

    I'm not sure if this is the same guy who has been calling BS on him for weeks and/or the one who came up with the possibilities of how Romney's IRA got so huge, but regardless, this is worth a read.

    What's interesting is that Fleischer is not supposed to be a liberal. (Oddly enough, though, he's been called the intellectual godfather of private equity tax hikes.) Not that this will mean much to those who are in the tank for Romney, but it's nice to know it's not so much a partisan thing as it is a reality thing.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:42:16 AM PDT

  •  Regarding Rove in ND (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKSinSA

    and your brazen accusations, it sounds to me as though you "are asking the American public to believe that a major party presidential [advisor] willingly lied about [an opponent]. And that’s a major leap."

    ;-)

    The GOP can't win on ideas. They can only win by lying, cheating, and stealing. So they do.

    by psnyder on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:55:08 AM PDT

  •  Karl Rove is a crock... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin
  •  does anyone have a list of state legislatures that (0+ / 0-)

    could flip in November?

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:00:36 AM PDT

    •  oh! Please someone answer this (0+ / 0-)

      I would LOVE to see that data.

      Here is a chart for how the current statehouse stand.

      Anyone know of a potential pickup?

      Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

      by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:07:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That depends. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zornorph

      The number is somewhere between one and 99, depending on (a) whether you mean a Democratic body becoming a Republican body; (b) whether you mean a Republican body becoming a Democratic body; (c) how you deal with the bodies that are tied; (d) how you deal with the terminology (i.e. The Utah Constitution names it "the Legislature of the State of Utah", but legislature brands itself as the "Utah State Legislature"); and (e) whether you mean "flip" as in "flip out," "flip flop," or "switch rooms where they do their governmenting and stuff."

      Does that help?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:11:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If there were an "is" in the OP, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zornorph

        it would have also depended on the meaning of that "is", but there isn't.

        •  I actually had an awesome history (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          thankgodforairamerica

          professor in college--a Canadian woman who knew all sorts of stuff about the Soviet Union, seemingly more than any PhD in field might--who once said something like, "And if you disagree with the premise of the question or some other part of it, please note that and then respond accordingly." I got where she was coming from, but still, I always think it takes a bit set to respond like that.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:21:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It is a very interesting question (0+ / 0-)

      I'm also looking about it.

    •  HI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy

      I think the HI state senate is likely to flip this election.

      Language professors HATE me!

      by Zornorph on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:47:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Two that I'm hoping will flip (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      MN House: there was a 50 seat(!) swing to the GOP in the 2010, and I think the legislature has flipped a few times back in forth in the last decade or so.

      It's an 11 seat advantage for the GOP in the House, and the state party is a mess. With Klobuchar and Obama winning, I think the state house could flip.

      ME House: It's only a 5 seat advantage for the GOP here. Again, Obama probably wins the state by a decent margin, and I think that along with LePage's unpopularity helps Dems.

  •  A couple of problems with Romney's tax (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thankgodforairamerica

    statement yesterday.

    While many in the media seem to act like his statement that he has paid at least 13% over the last ten years kind of settled the issue, I think it did the opposite for two reasons. One, obviously we are back talking about Romney's taxes, and he still hasnt released the returns. Two, I think proudly admitting you paid at least 13% comes off as a bit out of touch. There are a lot of people who make significantly less money than Romney who paid a significantly higher rate.

    •  also, saying he just looked at them again (0+ / 0-)

      the visual of it is of him having them in his hands and putting them back in a file drawer.

      i think he's his own worst enemy. he's like a heckler in a comedy audience. the comic's best strategy is to engage the heckler and keep him or her talking. after the most fantastic and brutal exchange i ever saw in my life, the comic smiled and said always keep 'em talking. they always give you something.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 07:47:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do we have any evidence (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zornorph

      that any significant number of weak or undecided voters care about this?  (Beyond assuming that everything the campaign does is a brilliantly relevant strategic move.)

      I'm sure if you ask people, they say he should release them.  But that's not the same as caring.  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:04:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's part of the larger frame... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, jncca

        That is is secretive, think he's above the rules, out for the rich, his tax plan would give him more breaks, his claim that rich need more tax breaks etc.  

        As a stand alone issue it probably doesn't matter - but as part of the larger frame I think it is effective.  It effects his favorables - people don't trust him.  

        An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:20:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Every time he defends it, I think it makes him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        look worse.

        Is there any one single issue that would move undecideds? Probably not. But as Jacoby notes, I think it does play into the secrecy argument, and also makes him look out of touch, which drives up his favorables.

      •  Yes we do (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, askew, jncca

        I've read stories on focus groups, not scientific but not nothing and something campaigns give some weight, where people definitely consider the tax returns issue among the things that make them suspicious of Mitt.  They are wary of him, and it's part of the picture that makes them wary.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:31:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thompson 54, Baldwin 43 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, Zornorph

    Per Ras

  •  Very serious people are deeply troubled (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, LordMike

    by the disturbing lack of civility.  How have we come to this, stooping so low as to call Karl Rove a liar?  

    Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

    by ActivistGuy on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:03:41 AM PDT

    •  yes, he of all people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ActivistGuy

      deserves so much better.

    •  Where was the beltway concern?? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      Where was the outrage when Newt Gingrich was calling the President an anti-colonial Kenya socialist?

      When they said the President was establishing Death Panels through Obamacare?

      When Mitt Romney said the President doesn't get America?

      When members of Congress repeatedly said the President is not an American citizen?

      When a member of Congress called the President son?

      When a member of Congress screamed You Lie! at the President during an address to Congress?

      When members of Congress said that the President does not love America?

      When Tagg Romney questioned the President's eligibility to be President?

      When Sarah Palin mocked the First Lady repeatedly for encouraging people to eat healthy food?

      When right wingers said that the President wants the Terrorists to win?

      When a United States Senator said the President wants to kill Grandma?

      I think I might send this to Morning Joe......

      I'm pissed now.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:38:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not a LIAR (0+ / 0-)

    Rove couldn't be a liar.  Republicans never lie.  They misinterpret data, misspeak, forget they said it, can't remember if it is true, etc. but never lie. Why that would make them almost..............dishonest.

  •  Karl Rove is a crock (0+ / 0-)

    After all, he's been a Republican insider since Tricky Dick Nixon was President.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:37:11 AM PDT

  •  ND-Sen: They are going in hard against Heitkamp (7+ / 0-)

    I think Republicans were caught off guard by how strong her candidacy is. Two false ads in a row really reeks of desperation.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:52:12 AM PDT

    •  Republicans were thrown off guard by Heitkamp (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Woody, KingofSpades

      They seem very desperate. Also, I don't think Republicans expected Baldwin to be a strong as she is in Wisconsin.

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 08:57:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yup, they thought she'd fade by now, but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, KingofSpades

      ...they see her staying power and can't avoid spending money on this one any longer.

      But I am concerned attacks can stick, not because they have merit, but simply because attack ads in the big picture work more often than not.

      If this is still a dead heat in late September, then we should have a 50-50 shot at actually winning it because any post-convention bounce for the GOP or the sustained effect of attack ads will have been absorbed.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:45:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Are there any national Presidential polls (0+ / 0-)

    that have come out this week other than the tracking polls?

  •  HI-SEN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, DownstateDemocrat

    The Linda Lingle ad referenced is also an FEC violation: http://www.mazieforhawaii.com/...

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