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9:04 AM PT: NH-Gov: Here's a way to break through the clutter: fill your ad with zombies stumbling around, instead of the usual stock footage and newspaper headlines. It's the distinctive and humorous opening ad from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jackie Cilley, and the zombies are "pledge zombies," in other words, candidates who are abiding by the "no-tax pledge" that has a hold on both parties in New Hampshire. The "pledge" is a long-time standard in NH politics, one that not just the Republican candidates in the race but also Cilley's Democratic opponent, Maggie Hassan, are honoring. While Cilley hasn't specifically called for creating an income tax, in the ad (once she's beaten back the zombies) she reiterates her case for having an "adult conversation" on the issue instead of just reflexively rejecting it.

9:13 AM PT: FL-Sen: Rasmussen seems to figure that zigging when everybody else is zagging is the best way to fight off those pesky claims of bias. Their new poll of the Florida Senate race finds Democrat Bill Nelson leading Republican Connie Mack IV 47-40, one of Nelson's best margins in months. That comes after last month's poll put Mack ahead 46-37... a 16-point reversal of fortune.

9:16 AM PT: WI-Sen: Rasmussen seems to figure that zigging when everybody else is zagging is the best way to fight off those pesky claims of bias. Their new poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Republican Tommy Thompson leading Democrat Tammy Baldwin 54-43, one of Thompson's best margins in months. That comes after last month's poll put Baldwin ahead 48-41... an 18-point reversal of fortune.

9:28 AM PT: VA-Sen: Democrat Tim Kaine has lots of cash and is leaving nothing to chance, so he's shelling out another $1 million in early reservations for fall advertising time (bringing his total reservations to $4.5 mil). Interestingly $250K of that new reservation is for Spanish-language media; you might not initially think of Virginia as being a state with a large Latino population, but it's up to 8% Hispanic in the most recent Census, nearly doubled over the last decade, with much of that population inside the Beltway.

9:38 AM PT: CA-26, NY-18: The Dem-backing House Majority PAC is wading right into the nation's two most expensive media markets, although they must think they have a good shot in both districts to make that kind of investment. They're reserving $1 million in the LA market on behalf of Julia Brownley in the 26th, and $1.2 million in the NYC market on behalf of Sean Patrick Maloney. These are just reservations, so no link to the ads yet.

9:49 AM PT: MO-Sen: You probably know that the Dems gamed the GOP Senate primary in Missouri to help make sure Todd Akin emerged from it, and for good reason, as he's the gift that just seems to keep giving almost every day. On Thursday, Akin staked out one of his most grinch-like positions yet, partially premising his lack of support for this year's Senate farm bill because it contains support for school lunch programs. That's a position that no other Republican appearing with him at the state fair, even his wingnutty House colleague Vicky Hartzler, would get on board with. Akin's argument, of course, is that the states should handle that instead... y'know, with all those vast piles of money that state legislatures have sitting around... but that 'nuance' isn't likely to make its way through the news.

9:54 AM PT: NY-17: The race in the Dem-leaning 17th is pretty low on most observer's watch lists, with the caveat that Republican candidate Joe Carvin is a hedge fund manager in his spare time and has self-funded to the tune of at least $1 million. Using that advantage, he's hitting the airwaves with the race's first ad. It's a fairly generic ad with 15 seconds of hitting Dem incumbent Nita Lowey (using the most unflattering picture they could possibly find) and 15 seconds of reference to his own tax-cutting skills as Rye Town Supervisor.

10:08 AM PT: NC-07: On Thursday we saw the first independent expenditure ad from one of the House committees (the DCCC), with the expectation that their counterparts at the NRCC would be joining the battle momentarily. And here they are, rolling out IE ads in four of the reddest districts with Dem incumbents. No links on the ads yet, but Stu Rothenberg has gotten a sneak preview and gives a brief rundown on each of them, including not only the 7th but also GA-12, KY-06, and PA-12. The Raleigh News & Observer, however, points out that the NC-07 buy is very small, $27,600... a little better than pure "video press release" but not much better.

The Wilmington-based 7th is clearly going to be one of the epicenters of the House ad wars, as it's the scene of the DCCC's second IE ad, shoring up incumbent Mike McIntyre. Like their MI-01 ad from yesterday, it takes full advantage of the new focus on Paul Ryan's budget to hit him on Medicare (again invoking "essentially ending Medicare" and "more than $6,000" without actually mentioning Ryan by name). And on top of that, McIntyre's out with his campaign's first ad, a 60-second spot that he narrates himself, re-introducing himself and talking vaguely about values.

10:20 AM PT: ND-Sen: I'm not sure which Republican media team is having a worse time in North Dakota, in terms of getting called out for crossing the blatant BS line... the crack team at Crossroads, or Rick Berg's own campaign. Berg has had to ask three local TV stations to stop running an ad featuring a testimonial from a YWCA board member, which the YWCA demanded get taken down because it looked like an endorsement from them. Berg's response was merely to issue the same ad except with a fine-print disclaimer saying it was merely a personal endorsement, which on Wednesday the state's largest paper called "unethical" in an editorial (which in turn probably caused Berg to back down and pull it altogether). At any rate, Berg's team is saying it was time for that ad to disappear anyway, as they're starting to roll out another regularly-scheduled new ad, this one touting his work on behalf of a veteran.

10:28 AM PT: House: In case you like looking at long lists of House districts (where the latest round of robocalls is going out) just as much as I do, they've got a good one at Politico Morning Score. It's the 42 districts where Republican establishment groups Congressional Leadership Fund and YG Action that tries to hit Dems on Medicare (interestingly, trying to muddy the waters even more by using the Dem talking point of "ending Medicare as we know it" in reference to the $700 billion in Medicare "cuts" that they usually harp on). Most of the districts are no surprise, but just as with the DCCC robocalls earlier this week, the list includes the previously unheralded OH-10 and PA-07, so maybe there is indeed something going on in those two races.

10:35 AM PT: WI-Sen: Two different ads from Team Blue in Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin's campaign is out with one of those awkward mix & match ads that's half talking about her accomplishments, then after an abrupt gearshift in the music and narration, half hitting Tommy Thompson for wanting to raise taxes. Wisconsin Women Vote! (the IE arm for EMILY's List) meanwhile offers a pure negative spot detailing what Thompson has been up to in his years since being Governor (working as a corporate lobbyist, in other words).

10:38 AM PT: OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown's campaign's newest ad is a hit on Josh Mandel, but at least it's kind of bright and peppy instead of the usual dark colors and voice-of-doom narration like the usual negative ad. That's partly thanks to the subject matter, though: Mandel's little junket down to the Bahamas on behalf of the payday lending industry.

10:47 AM PT: NV-Sen (pdf): Here's something we haven't seen in a while (since December 2011, to be precise): a poll with Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley in the lead in the Nevada Senate race, with a 44-42 edge over GOP incumbent Dean Heller. One caveat: it's an internal on behalf of the DSCC, from Garin Hart Yang. But, things look copacetic in the fine print: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-44 in the presidential race, and the D/R breakdown in the poll is 42/38, consistent with the 41/37 spread in the latest SoS's report.

10:52 AM PT: MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren's latest TV ad is a feel-good compendium of news clips and man-on-the-street testimonials all touting her 'fighting for the middle class' bona fides.

10:59 AM PT: PA-12: Keith Rothfus is out with a new ad that (at least I think) is trying to be humorous about the usual 'regular guy' cliches that lame introductory bio ads traffic in, playing mock-heroic music and using oversized text onscreen to highlight the regular-guy things that he does. (He does throw in a dig at ObamaCare toward the end, just to let you know he's a Republican regular guy.)

11:03 AM PT: Voter suppression: You're probably aware that Ohio's Republican SoS just moved to cut down early voting... but a similar move in Florida just got struck down by a federal court. What does Florida have that Ohio doesn't? The VRA, that's what. The cut, by the Republican-controlled state legislature from 12 early voting days to 8, can't apply in Florida's five preclearance counties, because it has a disparate impact on black voters (who use early voting more than white voters).

11:05 AM PT: RNC: The Republican National Committe is the first of the big 6 committees to report its July numbers: they raised $37.7 million in July, leaving them with $88.7 million cash on hand.

11:09 AM PT: FL-Gov?: This is certainly an odd ad, one that may say more about Charlie Crist's potential future running for Governor again than about his current job (lawyer/commercial pitchman for a local plaintiff-side law firm). It's a 30-second ad for his firm, Morgan & Morgan; there are no questions about "Have you been injured?" but only requests to "Thank a teacher today."

11:13 AM PT: NY-19, NY-21, NY-24, NY-27: Underscoring that upstate New York will be a key area in deciding House control this year, the NRCC announced big ad reservations in four races, totaling $3.5 million. That includes $1.03 million backing super-vulnerable Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle in the 24th and $1.3 million boosting somewhat less vulnerable Chris Gibson in the 19th, as well as $757K and $574K going after Dems Bill Owens and Kathy Hochul in the 21st and 27th, respectively.

12:46 PM PT: NRCC: And we've got eight more ad reservations from the NRCC in key House races to report, in addition to the four in New York. They're doing $902K in the open AZ-01, $357K against Dem Bruce Braley in IA-01, $719K against David Loebsack in IA-02, $392K for Steve King in IA-04, $734K for Bobby Schilling in IL-17, $831K against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, $1.14 mil for Charlie Bass in NH-02, and $1.13 mil for Quico Canseco in TX-23.

12:48 PM PT: I know you've been eagerly anticipating the links to the actual ads for the NRCC's first four IE buys in GA-12, NC-07, KY-06, and PA-12... and here they are.

12:51 PM PT: Nevada: Congratulations to Jon Ralston, one of our favorite state-level political reporters; after more than a decade with the Las Vegas Sun, he's leaving that paper and setting up shop at his own website.

3:44 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Here's a bit of good news out of Arizona, where the primary is coming up, meaning that pre-primary reports were due with the FEC on Aug. 8. Dem Richard Carmona actually has a smidgen more cash on hand than his likely GOP opponent, Jeff Flake, ahead $1.75 million to $1.705 million. Flake raised more during the period, but he's also having to spend more since he still has a competitive primary against Wil Cardon (though the likely-to-lose Cardon seems to be wrapping it up early).

3:50 PM PT: Maryland redistricting: The Maryland Democrats' court challenge to a proposed referendum on the state's redistricting map seemed a bit of longshot, and, indeed, on Friday the state supreme court rejected the challenge. That means that the referendum, which seeks to roll back the map developed by the Dem-controlled state legislature, will appear on the November ballot. (Even if it gets struck down by referendum, that won't stop the current map from applying to this year's election, and it also gives the state Dems a chance to draw a map with the same 7-1 effect but cleaner-looking lines.) The Dems' challenge focused on the fact that signatures were solicited online, allegedly an invitation to fraud, although the procedure involved printing out a form and mailing it in.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Romney 'never paid less than 13%'... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, MichaelNY
    He tries to quiet the clamor about his taxes, but still isn't releasing any more returns.
    Romney says his tax rate was at least 13% in last 10 years...
    'Prove it' by releasing more returns, the Obama campaign responds.
  •  I don't think Ras Senate polls can be trusted (5+ / 0-)

    at all anymore. It's not just bias- it's that the volatility means the signal:noise ratio is unacceptable.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:27:37 AM PDT

  •  Ras's last five FL-Sen polls (10+ / 0-)

    February: tie
    March: Mack  up 7
    April: Nelson up 11
    July: Mack up 9
    August: Nelson up 7

    Even Rasmussen should ask themselves what's wrong with their methodology when they're producing garbage like this.  

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:28:50 AM PDT

    •  The thing to understand about Rasmussen... (14+ / 0-)

      ...is that he's selling political entertainment, not accuracy.  His entire business model is based on random people on the internet paying to see his "polls."  He doesn't have business or political clients, and rarely even media clients.  In the past he had a few GOP political clients, but that was rare and only a window into his personal politics, not part of his business model.

      So he has no incentive to provide accurate polling.  His incentive is to keep his subscriber base happy, and as he caters to wingnuts, he just needs to keep providing emotional satisfaction to wingnuts.  Providing sporadically Dem-happy polls is part of letting wingnuts tell themselves Ras isn't rigging its polls for them, which they can be easily persuaded isn't being done by just an occasional bone.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:35:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, skibum59, sapelcovits, CF of Aus

      Okay, let that be the nail in the coffin of Ras polls.  We literally can't extract any useful information from them.  We're better off using Ouija boards or divining the truth from scattering chicken bones than Ras polls.  We can't be sure it has a GOP bias, or a Dem bias for that matter.  These polls simply have a bullshit bias.  Call it a margin of error of 30%.  They are quite simply useless, and we should stop even reporting or looking at them.

  •  Jackie's zombies ad... (6+ / 0-)

    I saw it first thing this morning and was quite impressed.  Jackie is an impressive candidate.  I like the ad.  And, while my first thought was, why doesn't she introduce herself...who is she?, I have since thought it distinguishes herself from the pack.  Love it!

    The purpose of live is to live a life of purpose...and serve your neighbors with joy and love and make a positive difference in their lives.

    by MinervainNH on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:29:42 AM PDT

    •  How much of a third rail is the tax issue there? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Good as that ad was, it did kind of send the message "I have no problem raising taxes". Is that as toxic in NH as the national media makes it out to be?

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:47:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it's the media (4+ / 0-)

        the GOP, and the NHDP who make it out to be a big deal. If you talk to actual voters, they're tired of the pledge. They know what the pledge REALLY means is an over-reliance on property taxes.

        NH is the 7th wealthiest state in the union, has the 11th worst infrastructure, and ranks a firm 50th in the nation for state funding of our university system. Miss-a-frickin-sippi is more interested in post secondary education than we are. That's not anything I think we should be proud of.

        The pledge means that we'll continue to have closed rest areas on our highways - with banks of porta potties for the tourists (who comprise NH's second largest industry) to avail themselves of - because nothing says "Welcome to NH" like a stinky porta potty. The pledge means our infrastructure will continue to get worse - because there isn't money to fix it. The last legislature CUT revenue sources. Right now there's a bridge closed between Milton, NH and Lebanon, ME because NH doesn't have the money to chip in to fix the bridge. (Maine does). As a result, at least one business on the NH side has gone under, and more are likely to.

        That's what the pledge means. If you take enough pledges (like our GOP friends) you really don't have to think for yourself at all - which is why they do it. Then they can elect a mouth breather who will follow orders.

         At a time when Republicans are saying no to the Norquist pledge, it's ridiculous that NH is taking a pledge dreamed up by a couple of dead conservatives. At some point, someone needed to step up to the plate and stop trembling in fear of the pledge. That person is Jackie Cilley.

        "Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day." ~ Harry Truman

        by susanthe on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:48:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Now that I've heard Jackie pronounce her name (0+ / 0-)

      I have to ask: Is it a potential electoral problem that her name is homophonous with "silly"? "Hi, my name is Jackie Silly and I want to have a serious conversation"?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:19:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Quebec Provincial Election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh, MichaelNY, SLDemocrat

    Looks like Jean Charest's luck may of finally run out...

    Quebec Liberal leader Jean Charest’s support continues to lose ground at the expense of the upstart Coalition Avenir Quebec as the Parti Québécois maintains its lead midway into the Sept.4 election campaign, according to a new poll.

    Support for the CAQ and its leader, former PQ minister François Legault was growing gradually as the campaign unfolded, offering close three-way races in several predominantly francophone ridings in the province, the poll suggests.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

    According to Leger marketing, the PQ leads with 33% of the vote while the Liberals are down to 28% and with the CAQ at 27%. The Liberals are trailing everywhere except in Montreal, and that's not even a sure thing anymore with the CAQ surging.

    And most concerning for the Liberals is that the CAQ is seriously challenging their hold on non-francophone voters.

    Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

    by ehstronghold on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:30:29 AM PDT

    •  What a lousy choice for a progressive federalist (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      The PQ is not bad on the issues, but they're soverignist, and sometimes zenophobic.  The Liberals are federalists, but they're too conservative on economic issues.  The CAQ looks like a recreation of the right leaning ADQ.

      If I lived there, I'd probably vote for QS:  very good on the issues and not as soverigntist as the PQ.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:34:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Excuse my ignorance (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But is the NDP no player in these elections? Didn't they do really well in Quebec in the last national elections?

      •  They've never been a provincial party in Q (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, nimh

        A fairly new party, Quebec Solidaritie, is the closest thing to one.  And they're in the single digiits.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:44:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Provincial and federal parties in Canada... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ... are largely separate organizations. While there are some weak affiliations between the federal parties and their provincial sisters, it's much weaker than in the U.S. It's not uncommon for a member of the federal Conservative Party to run as a Liberal at the provincial level, etc. Jean Charest for example - the Liberal Premier of Quebec, was a former high-up in the old federal Progressive Conservative Party.

        The one exception actually is the NDP, which is nationally organized with provincial chapters.

        •  Yup Charest lost to Kim Campbell for PC leader (0+ / 0-)

          to take over for Brian Mulroney. The PC might not have fallen to 2 seats had Charest beaten Campbell that year ('93?)

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 05:22:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It'd be interesting if this happened in the US (0+ / 0-)

            You might for example have someone run for the local or state office in New York (state legislator, governor, etc.) but then run as a Democrat for Congress. Or someone run as a Democrat in Mississippi but as a Republican at the national level. And never actually having to "switch" parties along the way, instead just holding membership both in a state GOP and a national Democratic Party or vice versa.

    •  Quebec Independence (0+ / 0-)

      Is the movement for Quebec independence dead?

  •  ND-Sen: new Heitkamp radio ad (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades, Woody, MichaelNY

    And a new strategy? The bulk of the ad is about the farm bill, but the first 15 seconds are seemingly pitting oil vs. agriculture, which is interesting, to say the least. "You here a lot about an energy boom in North Dakota, but farmers and ranchers know that agriculture is our states oldest growth industry" the ad begins. Will this be a recurring theme in the future? Agriculture is still dominant in ND's economy, and I think it's a potential gold mine to exploit feelings that oil communities are being favored for development; it's something I've seen the Ryan Taylor and Pam Gulleson touch on as well, which is why I was thinking about something that otherwise I might chalk up to poor scripting or over interpretation on my part.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:32:04 AM PDT

    •  Oil vs. Ag (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, MichaelNY

      that is a third rail in North Dakota political. Granted, Heitkamp has no prayer at winning western North Dakota. But she shouldn't drawing a line in the sand like that, because she needs SOME votes there, otherwise Berg will have a huge leg up.

      •  Nothing here against oil (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        The ad just mentions the oil biz to set up the story that Berg is forgetting about the importance of farming. That leads to a pretty interesting list of Berg's failures from a farmer's point of view. But there's no bashing of the oil biz. I'm ok with it.

  •  Nelson recently started running ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag

    He probably did improve but it is hard to take Rasmusssen very seriously.

  •  WI-Sen: New Baldwin ad. (7+ / 0-)

    Hits on a similar theme as a new Wisconsin Women Vote! ad.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 09:33:52 AM PDT

    •  I think they're both good in their own way (5+ / 0-)

      This is going to be a tough one, I think.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:10:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Those are a pair of good ads (9+ / 0-)

      A good outside attack ad, and Baldwin's ad is smart and continues to paint her as the sort of pragmatic, populist Democrat. She seems to be tailoring her message for the state quite well, not coming off like a liberal Madison crusader at all. And she's doing it early, before outside groups spend money defining her.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:14:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I really don't understand (0+ / 0-)

      the Tommy Thompson appeal. He always looked like a bit of a goofball to me. I find it hard to take him seriously.

    •  A good combination (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      they needed to redefine Thompson

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:08:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow! (4+ / 0-)

      Both ads show Thompson as old, fat, and bloated, and as a DC insider just there to enrich himself.  Baldwin looks serious and hardworking in her ad.

      I'd like to see an ad asking Thompson why he wants to just go to DC for only one term, when it takes time to build up seniority in the Senate.  It really is such a waste of time to send such an old fellow down there for just one term.  

      Perhaps an outside interest group can run footage of Thompson discussing publicly the fact that he barely made it through his last debate because he had to go to the bathroom so badly.  (this was raised here the other day, I'm not making this up!)

      Its great to see such aggressive ads, that also give some good basic information, and a little more.  In other words, they don't just spew buzzwords, they help inform.

      Lets keep sharing political ads here, they really reassure and inspire us when we see leaders on our side putting themselves out there.  

      •  Has he said he only wants one term? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If not, it might be a mistake to infer it publically. If so, this isn't term limits country, and Baldwin can make the case you mentioned.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:55:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen Senate Polling: (4+ / 0-)

    We talked about it in the digest, how in Wisconsin they have 3 polls and there is a 41-point swing in 3 months.  If you look at Florida it's the exact. Same. THING.  4 polls in 5 months showing a 54 point swing.  Do we really thing this race has been that back and forth?  I repeat, how do they go to work with a straight face, and sleep when they get to bed?

  •  Biden's ad-libs keep campaign aides on their toes (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingTag, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    Biden's unscripted moments keep campaign on its toes...

    Compared with discreet Republican running mate Paul D. Ryan, the vice president presents a particular challenge to handlers with his off-the-cuff remarks.
  •  RI-01: Gemma to deliver us from dark days (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:11:48 AM PDT

  •  NRCC ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Not too surprising that they're going after most of the usual suspects in McIntyre, Barrow, Chandler, and Critz. Somewhat surprising that Matheson is missing, and really surprising that Hochul is.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:33:36 AM PDT

    •  Don't read anything into that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Differences in timing don't mean anything, they can't afford to attack everyone at once and often have reasons not to that don't have anything to do with vulnerabilty or lack of it.

      If they're still leaving Matheson and Hochul alone in late September, that tells us something.  But right now it's meaningless.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:39:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Priorities USA hits Ryan plan (5+ / 0-)

    Not Medicare, but Mitt's taxes dropping to 1%, a must-do hit in its own right:  http://gop12.thehill.com/...

    This makes me feel better as long as P-USA still has the funding to buy enough points for the ad to matter.

    That's two ads now hitting Ryan, with plenty more to come.

    No doubt OFA was caught a little flat-footed on Medicare, their ad reflects that.  But as I commented earlier, it's quick and easy to make the Medicare issue about Ryan, there's nothing Team Romney can do to prevent that.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:34:58 AM PDT

  •  Gov's (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    I saw a somewhat recent poll showing Hassan with a slight lead in NH.

    If, and thats an If, that holds we still need to defend MT and NC.  Plus, I get the feeling we don't have a good chance of picking up IN.

    GOP holds Governor Mansions at the moment 29-20.  So are we really looking at dropping to 18, or even 17, Democratic Governors?

    Ouch.

    Someone tell me I'm wrong.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:36:06 AM PDT

    •  I think we could grab... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      North Dakota if all goes well -- but probably not.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:02:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What relevance (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      is a number like that? It doesn't tell you anything. We don't have unified regional elections in America, the number of governorships each party holds is in flux yearly and depends on the selection of governorships up for election. That number is heavily influenced by 2010 where a massive and diverse 36 governorships were up for election during a historic Republican high.

      As for this year, we're only definitely going to lose NC and the GOP already has a veto proof majority in the legislature. While we'll be "down" one governorship on paper, nothing much will actually change in the real world if we hold or lose the North Carolina governorship. If anything perhaps McCroy will have a moderating influence on their agenda. We have a bad map this year, in case you didn't notice. IN, MT, UT, ND, MO, WV, NC... in a neutral environment elections are like tides, the Democratic party will never be on a permanent upturn. This is simply an average year with a bad map; losses are virtually inevitable.

      You have to accept that this is a long game and start looking towards 2013, when the GOP will be entirely on the defensive since only VA and NJ are up. Even if we aren't fairing well during 2013, we will have a very good shot of picking up VA. That doesn't mean the Republican party will be doing "badly" in VA, it simply means that its not doing as well as it was in 2009. (and you have to remember that VA is trending our way, just as many states up this year our trending away from us)

      Do you think that Republican political strategists are having internal meltdowns because they only have the potential to go "down" in some abstract measurement of the "number" of governorships each party holds in 2013? Of course not, they recognize that they are fortunate to hold the governorships of those states for any period. That's politics. We are fortunate to hold the governorships of MO, MT, WV, NH, and NC. These governors were last elected in 2008 (excepting VT of course), and this is not going to be 2008. These are the blah years of politics, there's not going to be any seismic shifts this year, like the tide, the ruthless regression to the status quo makes it simply inevitable that we will lose more governorships this year, just as that same tide will be on our side in 2013 and 2014.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:09:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  don't forget DE and VT (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, pademocrat

        those are good states for us, and both are up this cycle.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:19:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm not sure I understand your comment. (I never listed all the governorships that were up, so I can't think how I forgot them. Sorry if I'm misunderstanding something here.)

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:26:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  If only Obama had lead/acted on Bowles-Simpson, (0+ / 0-)

    he could have avoided this entire Medicare fight and the supposed trap that Mitt has set for him. That's the argument that Mark McKinnon makes here, in his entry in the Dumbest Writing Contest, August 2012. I only wish I were kidding.

    A few points, just because I am delaying doing actual work today:

    1. What poll says seniors in Florida are terrified of ObamaCare?

    2. I don't actually doubt this claim all that much, despite wanting to know the name of the pollster. Why? Because Republicans have spent the last few years lying their asses off about this. If I spend two or three years saying that Newt Gingrich is going to date your daughter and then become your son-in-law, and you end up scared of this prospect, is it really such a fucking surprise?

    3. I am not an expert on this subject, but I don't his claim that Ryan's plan (whichever one we are talking about now) is different in how it changes Medicare is different than what Obama does is accurate. It is, at best, deceptive, and at worse a lie. There is a difference in the plans, but as ThinkProgress notes, it's that Romney uses the money to pay for tax cuts.

    4. The claim about Bowles-Simpson is really amazing, considering it was Ryan that voted against it and, when another budget deal was almost reached--one, by the way, that was FAR more favorable to Republicans than Democrats--Ryan worked against it because he thought it would give Obama an easy reelection. Leadership, my ass!

    5. I also don't see what trap McKinnon is referring to. If I am reading him correctly, nobody trusts Obama, so despite the fact that both sides will lie (not true, but whatever), this will hurt him more. The recorded votes for the Ryan plan that almost every Republican has on his or her record? Pfft, nothing to see here folks!

    I don't think this election can over fast enough.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 10:58:30 AM PDT

  •  Ryan questioned on stances... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, pademocrat
    He is grilled about apparent shifts on Medicare, China, and the stimulus bill.
    Paul Ryan questioned over apparent shifts on issues...
    Mitt Romney's new running mate, Paul Ryan, seems to take new approaches on Medicare cuts, trade with China, and stimulus spending as he campaigns in Ohio.
  •  OFA Medicare ad out (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, pademocrat

    Nothing to the gut, yet, and is pretty average:

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:01:06 AM PDT

    •  This seems kind of... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, MichaelNY

      Like an ad OFA had to run because the media was starting to question why they weren't.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:05:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like it (6+ / 0-)

      They don't want to "politicize" the issue by making it too aggressive an attack. They want people to believe the underlying facts, which are obviously true. So they turn to respected sources to support all the claims.

      We'll get to the ominous stuff later. This is all about getting skeptical and/or low-information voters to accept the basic premise.

    •  It's straightforward with facts from AARP (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      The AARP logo is on the screen so much it looks like it's their ad.  I think it's a good idea to lay out facts in an evenhanded manner, rather than getting into a battle of cartoonish claims that get dismissed as mudslinging.

      •  I keep going back (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, KingTag, askew, skibum59, MichaelNY

        to that quote from Priorities USA that they couldn't get people to believe the TRUE claims about the House budget. People in focus groups just weren't buying it, they didn't think it was possible for the GOP to be so extreme and/or politically stupid.

        With Paul Ryan on the ticket, it probably makes the sell easier, but there's still a "believability" hurdle we need to get over. Voters need to get on board with the basic premise. I think it's easier for that to happen if 1) the news media reports what's actually in the bills (which believe it or not they've now been doing); and 2) we offer ads, at first anyway, that are fact-driven and not too slick or aggressive.

        •  Based on your comments, this sort of (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, bythesea, MichaelNY

          ad makes more sense. It's quite easy to imagine a backlash against us and/or more support for Romney and Ryan if we go overboard and accuse them of something that sounds comically evil. Establishing authority on the issue is key, which is why, among other things, seeing the AARP included is great. What they've done in the past speaks for itself; there's really no need to lie. We just need to get people to believe us, and if we warm them up to heavier attacks that will come later in the game (if necessary), they might be more receptive to them.

          In a more general sense, I think we have to trust OFA. I second guess them at least as much as anyone else, but they know what they are doing and that they've been handed a huge weapon. Hopefully without sounding like I am trying to abuse the facts to establish a narrative, this past week has been one gift after another for OFA, as DCCyclone has noted. In a lot of ways, just keeping quiet might have been the best strategy. Now, we can save our attacks, and the resources behind them, for the remaining weeks.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:10:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  DC Circuit Court rules against FL's reducing (12+ / 0-)

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:04:44 AM PDT

  •  Nevada Garin-Hart Yang poll (6+ / 0-)

    Would have liked to see a bigger lead than 5 for Obama in a Dem poll, but 49%, with Johnson likely to garner a couple of percent, is fine.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:12:39 AM PDT

  •  Fun Fact According to the OED the entry of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Darth Jeff

    "useless" in the august dictionary is (or should be)
    ==============
    Definition of useless

    adjective

    not fulfilling or not expected to achieve the intended purpose or desired outcome: a piece of useless knowledge: We tried to interpret the Rasmussen poll but it was useless

    informal having no ability or skill in a specified activity or area: S. Rasmussen was useless at producung meaningful polls
    =
    =============

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:14:50 AM PDT

  •  Rage Against the Machine to Paul Ryan: No Thanks! (7+ / 0-)

    This sort of stuff is always amusing.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:19:18 AM PDT

  •  Paul Ryan to Cause Huge GOP Losses in House (6+ / 0-)

    At least there's a huge possibility of that, it seems. What has happened is, as always, an opportunity, not a guarantee. But this paragraph shows why, with some things going our way, we can win back the majority:

    Earlier this week, GOP leadership convened a conference call for its rank-and-file members. According to a source on the call who was not authorized to speak on its content, nearly every person who spoke complained that they were getting hammered at home on Medicare, looking to leadership to figure a way out of the political jam. The complainants were quick to voice their support and enthusiasm for adding Ryan, who they called a leader, to the ticket.

    I would like to know (a) just how they are getting hammered at home and (b) just what the DCCC (and, in other cases, the DSCC and the DNC) plan to put even more pressure on them.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:23:46 AM PDT

    •  While I tend to agree Ryan will hurt GOP House, (0+ / 0-)

      Huffington Post still sees (very) minimal GOP losses in the House, and apparently a chance of them gaining seats.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:59:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where does it say they could gain them? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:11:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm struggling with how (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, R30A, MichaelNY, pademocrat

        the GOP could gain House seats this cycle.  Virtually all of their vulnerable incumbents would have to win, and they'd have to win a vast majority of the seats that are open.  

        The GOP won 52% of the national house vote in 2010, to the Dems 44.5%.  They would have to win the national vote by at least that to gain seats, and I don't see any prognosticators calling for an R+7 generic ballot.

        •  Where does HP even predict this? (0+ / 0-)

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:02:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  no they wouldn't (0+ / 0-)

          redistricting means they could gain seats and still lose around a point and a half off their national margin.

          I still think they lose around 10 seats, though.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:22:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think redistricting's effect is overblown (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Take Ohio for example.  The republicans were at 13-5 after 2010.  They drew a new map that is supposedly 12-4, but in reality is at best for them 10R-4D-2S.  That's not a gain in seats.  

            Pennsylvania, same deal.  You went from 12-7 to supposedly 12-6, but again, that assumes that Boockvar doesn't beat Fitzpatrick, Trivedi doesn't take out Gerlach, and assumes Meehan doesn't lose where a LOT of independent spending is pouring into PA-7 right now.  

            Then there's Florida, which had a 18-7 coming out of 2010.  How are the R's going to gain seats there?  They'd have to pick up the two new seats, both of which have democratic PVIs of at least D+3, and have Allen West and David Rivera win their races too.  Again...not a likely scenario.

            The only republican gerrymander in the whole country that has me quaking in my boots is North Carolina...and that one is more than canceled out by our side's gerrymander in Illinois.  

            •  It's also about shoring up the incumbents... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, supercereal

              making their districts safer and thus harder to flip.

              An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

              by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 05:40:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  That's the wrong approach to looking at it (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca, supercereal

              think about how we will do this year vs how we would have done this year under the old maps.

              In Ohio I think it ends up 12R-4D whereas the old map would have been 7 to 10 Dems and 11-8 Republicans.

              Pennsylvania goes from 12R-6D to possibly 12D-7R, a huge difference.

              Florida isn't that different since Democrats are so packed to begin with.

              North Carolina would have been 8D-5R instead of the likely 9R-4D.

              If you ask me, redistricting played a pretty big role for Republicans.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:45:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Let's hope so (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JGibson, pademocrat

      Every single one of them voted to turn Medicare into a voucher program.  That better be enough to at least defeat the Republicans representing Obama districts.

  •  I think that Warren ad is excellent (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:27:51 AM PDT

  •  ppppolls... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    Paul Ryan has better favorability numbers than Mitt Romney on the first night of our poll in...Massachusetts
    There's been a notable deterioration in Bobby Valentine's poll numbers since the last time we polled Massachusetts
    twitter...
  •  Paul Ryan Didn't Fight to Save GM Plant (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, pademocrat

    So says Ryan Lizza, in this tweet.

    Question: Does it make Obama and/or Biden look pathetic to hold an event near the plant or somewhere else in Ryan's district to highlight this and other stuff? We don't want to elevate him any higher than he is now, and I worry that getting in his face, while awesome in some ways, would do just that.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:21:36 PM PDT

  •  PPP WI tweet (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, MichaelNY, pademocrat
    We are seeing a very competitive Presidential race in Wisconsin...going to be interesting over next month to see if it's a bump or lasting..

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:58:05 PM PDT

  •  ppppolls... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike
    We are seeing a very competitive Presidential race in Wisconsin...going to be interesting over next month to see if it's a bump or lasting..
    twitter...
  •  When I read Ralston was leaving the paper... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, dsh17, ArkDem14, pademocrat

    I figured it was to go work for the Heller campaign.  

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:18:00 PM PDT

  •  PA-07. (5+ / 0-)

     I am sure that the Ryan plan is super unpopular in this district. Meehan specifically said he would not vote for such a plan when first campaigning and then turned around and voted for it twice. The Ryan pick is bad news for him.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:41:48 PM PDT

  •  Dem consultant speaks out on (6+ / 0-)

    what may have made Davis switch parties.  It turns out he found out he had no chance at running for Congress as a Democrat after his inexplicably horrible belly-aching, so he switched:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:57:52 PM PDT

    •  hmm (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, pademocrat

      That's hearsay but it's consistent with everything I've read about Davis, who seems to be a pure opportunist who will adopt whatever positions on whatever issues that he thinks will help him get ahead. He probably would have made a good apparatchik in the old Soviet system, as he has the backstabbing and buttkissing down pat even if his armtwisting skills are unproven.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:10:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's kind of what Ed Kilgore says too (6+ / 0-)

      He has an article up at TNR on D-to-R party switchers/cross-endorsers - Zell Miller, Lieberman, and Artur Davis.

      On Davis:

      A very early supporter and personal friend of Barack Obama, and once (despite a pro-business and socially conservative record that discomfited some national Democrats) a passionate advocate of universal health coverage and stronger federal support for public education, Davis set his sites on the audacious goal of becoming governor of Alabama (as he told me years earlier, just after giving an inspiring speech on how conservatives were starving the public schools and the economic opportunities of his very poor majority-black district). Having done so, he systematically began adjusting his ideology to the views of his state’s conservative general electorate, to the point of becoming a national spokesman against the Affordable Care Act and a voice of open contempt towards Alabama’s embattled pro-Democratic interest groups, presumably believing his race and the radicalism of Alabama’s GOP would maintain his base of support.

      His extreme “triangulation” didn’t work, and he was absolutely trounced in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary by an underfunded white candidate who swept Davis’ own majority-black congressional district. Practically from the moment of his concession speech, he left his party and his state behind, and soon surfaced as a columnist for National Review and then a transplanted Virginian expressing interest in a future congressional race as a Republican. The one-time champion of better-funded public education recently emerged as a vocal defender of Gov. Bobby Jindal’s radical Christian-Right-based school voucher program in Louisiana.

      Davis has none of Miller’s fire, and little of Lieberman’s desire to maintain an independent position outside both parties. His current posture has all the trappings of a professional “reboot,” and his invitation to go to Tampa and shiv his old friend the President of the United States must look to him like a heaven-sent opportunity to become a national celebrity and leapfrog the many prospective congressional candidates in his new digs who never had a “D” next to their names on any ballot.

      He amusingly contradicts himself right here:
      I say this not to accuse Artur Davis of insincerity.

      Then...

      He took on a nearly impossible task in running for governor in the most pro-Republican year in the state’s history, and he did have the decency to get out of Alabama before switching parties, lest he give aid and comfort to the neo-confederates who dominate the GOP in the Heart of Dixie. But his claim that it’s Obama, not himself, who changed since 2008 is disingenuous, and he will obviously be used by his new friends to provide cover for the Romney/Ryan ticket’s heavily race-inflected attacks on the president on the entirely phony grounds that he’s gutting welfare work requirements and “raiding” Medicare to redistribute tax dollars to poor and minority people—you know, Artur Davis’ former constituents.
  •  Loebsack doesn't seem like he should be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    in a competitive race. Even with the new territory. Even more surprising is see the NRCC wasting coin against Braley in his district, which moved 3 points to the left and he doesn't really have a top tier opponent.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:07:09 PM PDT

  •  CA Dem Party "Win Back the House Online Challenge" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    Sorry if someone's already posted this, but I thought it would be interesting to see how DKE members would respond to this poll. Vote for any of the endorsed, non-incumbent Democratic congressional candidates... the 'winner' (most votes by 5pm PT Friday, Aug 24) is featured in a statewide fundraising email blast. Not too shabby, especially for those under-the-radar challengers. Ami Bera gets a lot of attention, but there certainly are other candidates who deserve some love. What do y'all think?

    http://www.cadem.org/...

  •  Not that I dont think WI is competitive (0+ / 0-)

    but I'm very curious to see a Marquette poll of the state. They have had the better track record this year than PPP. And while everyone had Walker leading, I think only Marquette had Thompson winning the primary.

    •  Marquette missed the primary worse than PPP (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Marquette missed by six points.  PPP missed by 5 points.

      Both of those rate "poor", outside the margin of error.

      PPP's WI track record is waaaaay below their average, but Marquette's limited track record isn't great either now.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:24:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think three-way races are really tough to poll (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        and maybe especially this one. I waded through some of the State Journal and Journal Sentinel comments sections, and it seemed there were lots of leaners and undecideds. I'll admit it's not a scientific sample, but usually they are very partisan and definite about their views there. Even an excellent pollster can mess up if a large percentage of the electorate makes up their mind on the drive to the polling booth.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:32:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A pollster's poll should reflect that (0+ / 0-)

          and Marquette is especially vulnerable at this point as they ask for "certain" voters in their polling, not "likely" ones.

          Some things are obviously more difficult to poll than others, but that doesn't give a pollster an out to release material that if off base from reality.

          If you can't do an accurate poll, don't do the poll.  

          In race like the Senate one, it's pretty clear that leaners should not be pushed.  Higher undecideds with no pushing would have been a more accurate represntation of the reality.  In other words, if gobs of people were making up their mind on the way to vote, a good pollster would have shown gobs of undecideds.

          In any case, if you don't fault Marquette and PPP for missing as widely as they did, you certainly can't give either any credit/kudos either.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:45:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, they missed by one point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        more and also got the winner correct. And I think the order of finish correct. I agree with fearlessfred's comment above. I think a three way primary, in the summer is difficult to poll, but still, gotta give Marquette credit.

        •  Credit for what? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pademocrat

          They don't deserve credit for anything.  They missed badly.

          If PPP had Hovde by +1, and Marquette had Hovde by +15, would you want to give them credit for getting the winner right?

          They deserve no credit.  Their poll was off badly, especially as I said above, because of their ludicrous methodolgy of asking for "certain" voters.  They "certainly" were wrong in their polling, period.

          Like Yoda said about polling: "Try not.  Do, or do not."

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:50:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  "and Marquette had Thompson by +15" (0+ / 0-)

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:51:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  But it wasnt a 14 point difference (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, NMLib

            between the polls, it was 1 point, and in a tough 3 way race, Marquette did get the order right, and PPP didnt.

            I'm not saying this to dismiss PPP, just to say I will be curious to see what Marquette's numbers are vs. CNN, Ras, PPP.

            •  Well I agree with you if you are saying they (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fearlessfred14

              sucked equally.

              But neither PPP nor Marquette deserve any significant credit, nor any comparative kudos for doing better than the other.

              Missing by 6 is no death sentence either, so seeing their numbers will be interesting.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:24:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  That's ridiculous, Marquette Law was the best (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They nailed Thompson's vote share of 34% and correctly picked him the winner.

            PPP repeatedly said Hovde was the leader and never came close on the winner's vote share.

            Marquette Law was far and away the best in the primary.  Not stellar given their miss on Hovde's vote share, but they showed high undecideds who had to go somewhere.

            Your "analysis" makes no sense.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:25:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Missing by six points is pathetic (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and defending such a huge miss makes no sense on any level.

              You just like being contrary, but missing by six is Rasmussen territory.  They were wrong, outside the margin of error, period.

              And really, "correctly picking the winner" is not what pollsters do.  I thought you knew that, but I guess not.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:27:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Seems odd (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    that there haven't been more (any?) polls released this week from major news outlets. I realize they have their typical schedules, but the week after a Veep pick would seem to be hard to resist.

    I mean, I'm not sure how meaningful polling this week would be (honestly), but it would be fun to see, and I think the outlets would get more attention from them than usual.

  •  AZ-Pres/Sen: I already brought this up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In yesterday's digest, but that was at 5 in the morning.

    On Thursday, Jan Brewer signed an executive order barring any undocumented Arizona residents that fall under Obama's immigration order from receiving any state aid.

    Does anyone think this could bolster our chances in the Presidential or Senate races?

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:05:48 PM PDT

    •  Well, hard to say, but... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      it's apparently toothless as it doesn't change AZ policy or supercede federal policy.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:18:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  why would it bolster our chances? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, pademocrat

      Arizona is a state that is conservative on immigration, and nobody outside of Arizona fulfills both of the following:
      a) being an undecided voter and
      b) caring about Jan Brewer.

      Only partisans and hard-core junkies even know who she is outside her state.  And her immigration law is popular in Arizona.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:25:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New OFA ad on women's issues integrates Ryan (10+ / 0-)


    Seems like a rehash, but this time with Ryan.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:24:49 PM PDT

  •  MD-Redistricting: What a waste of $$$ (4+ / 0-)

    It's like the MD GOP is spending money to give Democrats a second shot at gerrymandering the state.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 04:14:08 PM PDT

  •  NH-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    A little bird whispered in my ear what was claimed to be a poll of the NH-01 district, a partisan poll from the Democratic side.  While the support for Democrat
    Carol Shea-Porter was a disappointing 38%,
    Republicans can hardly be cheered by their
    Frank Guinta at 28%,
    meaning their guy is ten points behind.  
    Libertarian Brendan Kelly is at 9%.  
    On the bright side for Republicans, their some dude is three percent ahead of undecided.

    We can have change for the better.

    by phillies on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 12:49:32 PM PDT

    •  That's hard to believe (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      High undecideds is normal at this stage in a U.S. House race, especially with a freshman incumbent, so no surprise by 25% undecided.

      But 9% for the Libertarian is absurd.

      And 28% for Guinta, is highly doubtful......if that was accurate, he's doomed and in fact guaranteed to lose in a blowout.  The rule of thumb in House races is that an incumbent at this stage can poll in the mid-40s and be considered relatively safe, if the challenger isn't already within margin-of-error.  An incumbent in the 30s is in real trouble.  But an incumbent in the 20s is doomed and in fact on the way to a massive blowout loss.  All this assumes an accurate poll.

      I doubt the accuracy of a poll with numbers you share.  There's never been any hint that Guinta is on his way to such a massive loss, only a narrow one if at all.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 01:51:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Let me clarify one thing...... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, phillies, KingofSpades

        I was a little too fast and loose in saying an incumbent in the mid-40s is relatively safe if leading outside the margin of error.  What's more precise is to say an incumbent in the mid-to-high-40s who is up by at least high single digits can be considered relatively safe.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 01:53:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Libertarian at 9% (0+ / 0-)

          is fairly representative of what we are seeing this year at the top end of the range.  I expect that the ten-point gap is the most important number here.  Mind you, the line is "third party candidates usually fade as the election approaches".  Also, this is New Hampshire.  Remember that the State House of Representatives rejected an anti-gay-marriage proposal so social reactionaryism sells poorly in NH.

          We can have change for the better.

          by phillies on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 02:55:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm very dismissive of minor party numbers (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Yes there are lots of polls that show Libertarians and other minor candidates doing well......and they are complete bullshit.

            I don't buy for a second Guinta is at 28% in a valid poll.  He's doing better than that.  If he's not, then as I said in another comment today regarding Noem leading only by a point in SD-AL in an independent poll, it portends a Democratic wave that no one is seeing.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 02:59:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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