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President Barack Obama talks with patrons during a stop at Lechonera El Barrio restaurant in Orlando, Fla., Aug. 2, 2012.
Still winning.
It's been over two weeks since I did one of these, so here's the updated polling composite numbers for the battleground states, per TPM's polltracker.
I wish I would've done one of these last week, so we'd have a clean pre- and post-Paul Ryan trendline. But there wasn't much polling last week, and I generally update only when there are significant changes to the numbers.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of polling this week came from two conservative outfits: Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. Even then, Obama maintains a comfortable lead in the electoral collage tally (332-206). Furthermore, like I've noted week after week after week, the numbers to watch are Romney's—he hits 46 percent in just five of these 13 states despite Rasmussen's best efforts. Obama misses that mark in just one—Missouri—a state I want to pull from this list as out-of-play (like I did Arizona), but the narrow 2.7-point deficit certainly argues otherwise.

I'm hoping for an avalanche of polling next week so we can get a solid pre-convention baseline.

Originally posted to kos on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:24 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  love it when 11 dimensions come together (20+ / 0-)
    Meanwhile, the vast majority of polling this week came from two conservative outfits: Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. Even then, Obama maintains a comfortable lead in the electoral collage tally (332-206).

    Don't roof rack me bro', Now the brown's comin' down; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:28:39 AM PDT

  •  Hopefully the PA margin will go up (25+ / 0-)

    5% is still a little close to comfort considering the voter ID law will likely be there in November.  If Nate Silver says that the voter ID law won't have much of an effect, then I believe him.  Still want to make sure the GOP can't steal Pennsylvania.

    Hoping Florida keeps trending away from Vulture/Voucher too.

    •  On a 5% margin in July ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tuma

      ... a 1.2% centerline estimate of the impact is not "won't have much of an effect". Three more "not very much effects" like that and its a coin toss, down to the vagaries of weather in Philadelphia and mid-state.

      A 1.2% partisan swing is a 2.4% net turnout effect, and a 2.4% net turnout effect is a 3% to 5% gross turnout effect. 3% to 5% of the electorate disenfranchised is important effect even if the partisan effect were to net out at 0.2%.

      Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

      by BruceMcF on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:07:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've already discounted PA in my book...and FL (0+ / 0-)

      too. Seeing if we can hold OH, CO, NV, VA, WI, MI....that should do it...

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:30:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Um, Obama's going to win PA, thank you (8+ / 0-)

        He's leading by over 5% on average and Nate Silver has caculated that voter supression only has a 1-2% impact.  So things will be fine.  And don't discount Florida either.  With Ryan on the ticket, I'd say Obama now has the advantage.

        •  Obama will win PA - the GOP has just about quit it (0+ / 0-)

          But, he won't win Florida.  Romney needs FL, Virginia and Ohio to have any chance at all  They account for 60 EV.  In most composite surveys he already has 206 EV.  If he can get those three states - and nothing in these numbers says he can't -  then he needs one of the following:  Iowa, NH, or CO.  Very doable, especially since this poll also looks like Wisconsin is also in play.

          Paul Ryan has energized the Base.  The convention, and the Dem convention also, will energize them further.  

          I'd still rather be Obama than Romney, but this race is not over.  Not yet, at least.

    •  Pennsylvania going to GOP? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      The level of GOP/Tea Party excitement over the upcoming election is impressive & should scare the crap out of any Kossack.

      Passed a decent sized crowd while running errands tonight - wasn't sure what was going on - was the local NRA chapter getting volunteers lined up for the election.

      Talking to conservative friends they are completely fired up .  When I swing down to Philly to see more liberal family and friends down there all I sense is frustration with the economy, the President and a sense that voter turnout will not approach 2008 numbers.  

      I don't care what the polls are saying for PA because the numbers I'm seeing simply don't jibe with every "live" indicator around.

      If I'm right, the mix of D/R in the polls is going to be way off and not in a way that will favor the President.

      •  maybe but.. (0+ / 0-)

        In all my years Republicans have always been more vocal . I live in Indiana and from listening to conservative friends/co-workers/family Obama didn't stand a chance in Indiana in 2008. My county is very heavily Democrat BUT gong by the rhetoric one hears here you'd think it's a GOP county. I seen far more McCain/Palin yard signs and bumper stickers it seemed then Obama/Biden stickers/signs.

          In other words it seems the Conservative crowd is always outwardly far more fired up then the more liberal types. It's the same way at work the GOpers run their mouths ,are the loudest while the more liberal/moderate types tend to just go about their lives and let their vote in November do their talking for them.

        •  If Romney wins PA (0+ / 0-)

          We won't be up very late on election night.  If he wins PA, then FL, OH, VA, and probably Iowa, NH, and Wis will also go GOP.  Then the Rocky Mountain/Southwest Firewall won't be worth a hill of beans.

          I live in Pittsburgh, and I still think PA is fools gold for Romney.  But,...unlike conventional wisdom, I think Paul Ryan provides more positives to the ticket than negatives.  Just a week ago, all the state poll trend lines were away from Romney, regardless of what polls you were looking at.  Now, looking at this, nearly all of the trend lines are toward the GOP, and with a convention bump coming as well.

        •  And the opposite in East TN - Also meaningless (0+ / 0-)

          I live in a county that went 69-30 for McCain in East Tennessee. Yet, I've seen two Romney stickers and about 40 Obama 2012 stickers around here. The Democrats here are a lot more fired up because of the teabag trash who took a dump on our state legislature and embarrassed all of us.  But do you think it will make a difference in November? Nope. Obama will win PA easily, despite all the anecdotal evidence. And Romney will dominate Blount County, Tennessee just as every Republican has since Parson Brownlow.

  •  Purple has been very negative on Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DB55

    But are they really conservative? I don't know if they can be discounted like Rasmussen?

    Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

    by NoFortunateSon on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:33:33 AM PDT

  •  MSM will invent a Ryan bump (17+ / 0-)

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:39:45 AM PDT

  •  When do we get to add Arizona to the battleground (3+ / 0-)

    states list?  Certainly Romney/Ryan's collective bigotry on immigration should put that state in play by now.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right. I'm riding in the Tour de Cure. You can donate here.

    by darthstar on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:41:19 AM PDT

  •  Wisconsin is undoubtedly tighter... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drmah, YoungArizonaLiberal, tuma, TKO333

    There's a certain amount of local pride and self-identification among the crucial "independent independents" here in WI.  That's 10 EVs that Romney would love to have.  Need to find a way to neutralize this.

    "This is not class warfare. It's math." - Barack Obama 9/19/11

    by DaveV on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:45:30 AM PDT

    •  CNN (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, drmah, Quantumlogic

      had Romney still down 4 points, during the week when the Home State Boy bounce should be at its biggest. So I'm not too concerned.

    •  If Wisconsin votes for Romney I will be very (0+ / 0-)

      disappointed. First Scott Walker, now this?! Some people really need to stop putting their hands on the stove. We can only handle about 30 crazy states at a time (Arizona most of all) we can't add another to the list.

      When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

      by YoungArizonaLiberal on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:12:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ryan has broad appeal in his district (0+ / 0-)

      which is a very mixed district, demo-wise.  It's a Dem leaning district, yet he still pulls 2/3rd of the vote - even when Obama won the district in 2008 by 4 points!

      If Wisconsin follows suit state-wide, then scratch it off the blue list.  

      Florida is where Obama should be concentrating his efforts now.

      •  No, Ohio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jerry J

        Florida is a pink state.  It is full of white seniors, southern rednecks, and cuban hispanics, who unlike mexican hispanics, don't vote nearly as Dem.

        Bush and Rove took FL for granted in 2000, and it nearly cost them the election.  In 2004, they rallied their base big time, and they won it comfortably.  If Romney and Ryan and their PAC money put the full-court press on Fl, I don't think Obama can win it.  The polls will be close until election day, but Floridians (the white, transplanted, middle class, northern ones) don't like to be seen as racist in polls.

        There is a reason why the GOP controls all the levers of power in Florida, and it ain't a dumb coincidence.

        Of the great triumvirate (FL, VA, OH), Ohio will be the hardest for Romney and Ryan to win.  The economy still really sucks there, and they still blame Bush for the lion's share of it.  Plus, unions are REALLY strong in Ohio, as SB-5 showed.

  •  North Carolina (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, annieli, itskevin, Woody

    Interesting to see that North Carolina has moved slightly in the blue direction. I was thinking that's a lost cause. Perhaps it's the pre-convention buzz which is getting considerable. I live in San Francisco but spend a lot of time in Charlotte for work and it's a big topic in the magazines and papers.

    Yesterday the Charlotte Observer carried a front-page story wondering what hotel the President would be staying it-- and without any hard information to offer.

    "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

    by Demi Moaned on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:45:41 AM PDT

  •  Does anyone know when we will get this avalanche (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Deep Texan, drmah

    of mainstream polls of swing states?  Why has there been this pro-longed lull?

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 11:49:13 AM PDT

  •  I will be interested (6+ / 0-)

    in polling after the GOP convention, as there is a usual bounce, but what will that bounce be this year.

    Also waiting for the debates, will Romney hold his own against Obama?  And what about his outright lying, will he start on the Medicare issue, and once Obama hits back, what happens then.

    And truthfully........Nov is still too far away for me, lets just have this election so that Obama stays President.

    •  I'm wondering if they'll get any bounce (0+ / 0-)

      from the convention. With the tea party presence that will be on the floor and on the podium, it's likely going to look like the Nuremburg rallies would have looked if someone had put LSD in the water. At the very least, there is likely to be a Buchanan-in-'92 moment in there that will show the country their true colors.

  •  I just got a panic-button email from DSCC (0+ / 0-)

    saying Obama is now behind in VA, PA (or was it OH?) and FL. So that must have been all House of Raz? I don't fault them for whatever fundraising hook they may use, but it's certainly disconcerting to wake up to.

    Rhubarb is a metaphor for finding happiness in your own back yard.

    by CoyoteMarti on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:02:44 PM PDT

  •  I'd Heard Local Prog Talk Callers Say That Ryan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaveV, drmah

    brought Ohio much closer to Romney so there's the proof.

    Ugh. 2nd biggest change of all, and it's the wrong way.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:10:02 PM PDT

    •  Ridiculous (9+ / 0-)

      Are you just looking for any excuse to post concerned comments in any diary that involves horserace aspects of this election?

      What evidence do they have that Ryan has brought Romney closer in Ohio?

      What were their opinions of a Politico article yesterday that said multiple sources had indicated that private polling from both Republicans and Democrats had Obama leading by mid-single digits? I'm guessing that didn't come up, did it?

      Your concern is getting to be a bit ridiculous. I cannot wait for election night so I can remind you of how much time you wasted posting nonsense like this about how much trouble Obama was in.

      •  While I agree that Ryan probably (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rhauenstein

        doesn't help in Ohio, I think your lack of concern is dangerous.  I can guarantee you that the staff in Chicago is just as concerned about "nonsense like this" as Gooserock.

        "This is not class warfare. It's math." - Barack Obama 9/19/11

        by DaveV on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:06:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What Can I Say (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          shevas01, Odysseus, EcosseNJ

          I am supremely confident in Obama and his campaign team.

          Maybe I'll be completely wrong come November and I'll admit it. But I think it's much more likely that the following happens:

          -Romney has a mediocre convention with a small bounce.

          -Clinton gives a sensational convention speech. Obama follows him up with one that is even better.

          -The day after the Convention, the August jobs report shows 170,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate ticks down (lots of economic indicators already showing that this could very likely happen).

          -Obama surges in polls in the second week of September.

          -Romney tries his best in debates, but snapshot polling afterwards shows Obama winning in public opinion.

          -Obama wins 52-47 on election night.

          •  I am also supremely confident in the OFA team... (0+ / 0-)

            ...and they are working like hell knowing it's going to be close.

            They will pull it out, but they will need our help -- financially and on the ground.  Probably especially on the ground.

            "This is not class warfare. It's math." - Barack Obama 9/19/11

            by DaveV on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:41:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Addendum (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, Aquarius40, EcosseNJ, newdem1960

        Just to be clear, I have no doubt that you genuinely want the President to win and have real concerns about their Medicare attacks, but you just have to trust that he and his team know what they are doing.

        If Obama falls behind in the aggregate state level polling in Ohio, and is behind in national polls by top pollsters like Pew, NBC/WSJ, Ipsos, then I'll join you by fretting about our prospects.

      •  My uncle's boss' godson's nephew said (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40

        Joe Biden has cooties.  Please don't discount this!

        "I am neither bitter nor cynical but I do wish there was less immaturity in political thinking." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by djbender on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:08:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Completely agree. Can we have one happy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nanorich, EcosseNJ

        moment without someone piping in to scold us for "being complacent" or "getting cocky". Sheesh, We need to boost our self-esteem, the Repubs are brimming with it even when they lose!

        When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

        by YoungArizonaLiberal on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:09:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Obviously (0+ / 0-)

        you know this gloom-and-doom, hit-and-run user well.

        Are you just looking for any excuse to post concerned comments in any diary that involves horserace aspects of this election?

    •  Goose, you are a political hypochondriac (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nanorich, EcosseNJ

      I think that polling will really start to materialize after the conventions. People still don't know Paul Ryan. Remember how Obama defined Romney before Romney could despite the fact that he carpet bombed his primary opponents and is outraising him?

      We'll see another "Firms" type add soon feature Ryan and just like in '08 Obama will start pulling away from the MOE.

      Relax, have a Happy Friday and a margarita on me :-D

      When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

      by YoungArizonaLiberal on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:18:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen and Purple Strategies (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nanorich, vcmvo2, MKinTN, kos, Delilah

    It cannot be emphasized enough how these two polling firms are skewing these averages and how different their results have been than other public pollsters.

    Of the last 23 polls taken in Wisconsin, only 2 have shown Romney leading. Both of those happen to be Rasmussen polls, that came out after the Walker win and the Ryan announcement. Of course, in both instances, conservatives picked up this polling as evidence of momentum in the state. Total nonsense in my opinion, as Romney and the RNC have spent miniscule amounts of money on advertising in the state.

    Since March, there have been only two pollsters that have shown Romney leading in Ohio, Purple Strategies and Rasmussen. Politico even noted that private polling by both Republicans and Democrats has Obama ahead by mid-single digits.

    Since the end of May, only Purple Strategies and Rasmussen have shown Romney leading in Florida. 4 other pollsters have shown Obama leading in Florida during that time span in 8 different polls.

    In Virginia, of the last 7 public polls there, Romney has only led in the most recent Purple Strategies poll.  

    Frankly, the above wouldn't be a big deal to me if it didn't impact the media coverage and narrative of this race.  

    The Romney campaign even came out with a memo today talking about how they've gotten a polling bump out of Ryan and cited the Purple Strategies polls as evidence.

    Obama is in much stronger shape than the numbers Markos lists above. Based on ad spending patterns, clearly New Mexico, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are not realistically in play right now. I also think New Hampshire is a fairly solid lean Obama state right, as is Nevada, where Romney hasn't led in a poll this year.

    In my mind, Obama has 257 safe electoral votes and has 5 states where he is currently ahead by small margins to get 13 more: Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa. There is also North Carolina, which is the purest toss-up state in the country at the moment.

    By the way, for you horserace junkies, here is an excellent battleground state ad tracking device:
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    •  That answered my question on Purple (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40

      I had been reluctant to discount them, they way we discount Rasmussen for their lack of transparency and house effect.

      I think it's safe to discount them too.

      Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

      by NoFortunateSon on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:09:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Purple Strategies (0+ / 0-)

        Purple Strategies is a bipartisan consulting firm, but they don't have a long track record of polling. They do use a likely voter model, so I guess it's possible they're getting samples that are more Republican (like Rasmussen) than other firms.

        We'll see how their polls perform down the stretch.

        •  fwiw (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NoFortunateSon, Delilah

          there's nothing "Democratic" about Steve McMahon. He's the sleaziest person I've ever come across in politics, and that includes Republicans. He's a mercenary, pure and simple.

          •  Thanks for clearing this up (0+ / 0-)

            Without seeing the crosstabs, it's hard to know, but Purple could be putting their finger on the scale.

            It's particularly damning that they and Ras are the only two pollsters to find themselves on the other side of the fence.

            Even people like myself who read here frequently might not know that.

            I knew they were polling more favorably to Rmoney, but in my mind, that doesn't automatically make them illegitimate.

            However, when I begin to raise questions.

            Thank you for responding.

            Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

            by NoFortunateSon on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:48:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Purp Strat April-August 2012 (0+ / 0-)

              has shown a couple of upswings for Romney, one about two weeks after Newt, Santorum etal left the scene and obviously the VP candidate news from last week. Florida as you can see has shown a Romney lead since April, but is moving towards Obama with each poll...

              COLORADO
              4/19 - 4/23    600 LV    47    47    Tie
              5/31 - 6/5    600 LV    48    46    Obama +2  [i]
              7/9 - 7/13    600 LV    45    44    Obama +1
              8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    49    46    Obama +3  [ii]

              FLORIDA
              4/19 - 4/23    600 LV    44    47    Romney +3
              5/31 - 6/5    600 LV    45    49    Romney +4 [i]
              7/9 - 7/13    600 LV    45    48    Romney +3
              8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    47    48    Romney +1 [ii]

              OHIO
              4/19 - 4/23    600 LV    49    44    Obama +5
              5/31 - 6/5    600 LV    45    48    Romney +3 [i]
              7/9 - 7/13    600 LV    48    45    Obama +3
              8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    44    46    Romney +2 [ii]

              VIRGINIA
              4/19 - 4/23    600 LV    48    46    Obama +2
              5/31 - 6/5    600 LV    49    46    Obama +3 [i]
              7/9 - 7/13    600 LV    46    44    Obama +2
              8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    45    48    Romney +3 [ii]

              WISCONSIN
              4/19 - 4/23    600 LV    48    46    Obama +2
              5/31 - 6/5    600 LV    49    46    Obama +3 [i]
              7/9 - 7/13    600 LV    46    44    Obama +2
              8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    45    48    Romney +3 [ii]

              [i] in the wake of Romney nomination.
              [ii] announces Ryan.

              "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

              by EcosseNJ on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 03:38:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I wouldn't count on Iowa.. (0+ / 0-)

      If registration numbers have any predictive value.

      Interesting article on some of the battleground states:

      Boston Globe: Obama’s costly investment not yielding new voters

      Perhaps the most dramatic reversal has occurred in Iowa, a quadrennial tossup state which launched the Obama candidacy in the 2008 caucuses and which he won that November by 9 points. Republicans this year ended the Democrats’ six-year registration advantage. Since the leadoff caucuses in January, Democratic registration this year has dropped by 45,228, while GOP registration has increased by 5,671.
      And Independent registrations are way up.
      In Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada — tossup states where direct election-year comparisons could be drawn — the numbers are striking. Democratic rolls increased by only 39,580, less than one-tenth the amount at the comparable point in the 2008 election.

      At the same time, GOP registration has jumped by 145,085, or more than double for the same time four years ago. Independent registration has shown an even stronger surge, to 229,500, almost three times the number at this point in 2008.

  •  Obama falls short of 46% in 2 states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Magster, drmah

    Missouri and Iowa according to this chart.

    Even so... the bottom line is that Mitt needs to win Indiana as expected. Hold Missouri as expected. Win North Carolina as indicated in the current numbers... AND...

    win Florida, Virginia and Florida away from Obama.... AND...

    win one other of the smaller states.

    And that is the bottom line.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 12:34:21 PM PDT

  •  There was some serious disconnect in Colorado (0+ / 0-)

    showing a bigger bounce for Willard after VP announce, etc based upon swing state polling that was being touted this AM showing a different trend everywhere else.

    I forgot where I saw it and who performed it, could anyone remind me?

    Thanks

    "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

    by jakewaters on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:18:10 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for making my day!! (0+ / 0-)

    It's so nice to see these numbers. The overall trend seems to demonstrate that Romney, even with his boy wonder, are not making a dent in Obama's lead nationwide. I hope it stays this way or gets better by November.

    I know. A lot can happen over that time. But so much has already happened with Romney that I can't imagine him coming out with anything "new and improved" now. He is pretty well defined and Ryan has a lot of Congressional history that makes him a very boring pick as VP.

    The only thing I worry about is the rest of the world. If some crisis happens over the next weeks weeks it could throw everything into the blender. (eg. Terrorist attack/Syrian warfront, Economic meltdown, etc.) The world just needs to stay peaceful for a dozen weeks.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:18:41 PM PDT

  •  Do any of these polls take voter suppression (0+ / 0-)

    into consideration?

    With the efforts in several key swing states to keep our folks from voting (and the elderly who rely on Medicare in FL being the most prominent example), I don't know how well we should trust any poll that doesn't remove responses from people likely to be prevented from voting.

    "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

    by tc59 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:32:04 PM PDT

  •  Post Ryan? Posr Paul Ryan??? (0+ / 0-)

    You mean Ebenezer
    Scrooge in modern clothes who wants to take bread and penicillin out of th mouths of widows & orphans so Mitt RMoney can gold -pate his 2nd-best yacht in time for Flag Day?

    THAT Ryan?

    AhHAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahaha!

    Don't let millionaires steal Social Security.
    I said, "Don't let millionaires steal Social Security!"

    by Leo in NJ on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:34:34 PM PDT

  •  Three states I'd like to see: MT, WV and TX (0+ / 0-)

    Reasoning:

    Montana - first, we need some new Senate numbers for Tester.  Second, I have a hunch this one is closer than we think - a lot of retirees/older people in Montana, and I am wondering if, w/the small population, the Ryan pick moved the needle.

    West Virginia - I'd like to see how far down Obama is, again given the Ryan pick and the number of Manchin/Romney voters.

    Texas - We aren't winning this but I'm curious if its possible to demonstrate its close enough for the GOP to have to spend money due to the hispanic vote going so heavily for Obama.

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 01:36:44 PM PDT

  •  GOP wants badly to run racism in Virginia. (0+ / 0-)

    And the media like CNN are happy to help them. They described the crowd as predominantly black to fit the GOP's narrative. From what, I saw, what is in the video, this was a good cross section of America! So the GOP wants to make people think about race. They're hitting all the dog whistles. And CNN is the lowest of low. They put three reporters on the story to drive this non-controversy.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...

  •  PLEASE don't pull Missouri out of the mix.... if (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dem Beans

    they hadn't abandoned Missouri he could have won it last time.  He only lost by 2700 votes and Romney is so much worse than McCain.

    "It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to save the environment." *Ansel Adams* ."Even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."*Will Rogers*

    by Statusquomustgo on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:13:26 PM PDT

  •  he who laughs last, laffs best. Some of those marg (0+ / 0-)

    ins are really thin. As an old Democrat (baptised) I just expect the worst.............................................................

    German Constitution, Article 1 (1) The dignity of man is inviolable. To respect and protect it is the duty of all state authority.

    by Mark B on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 02:21:02 PM PDT

  •  I guess its WI concern day (0+ / 0-)
  •  it will be interesting to see if Missouri is (0+ / 0-)

    trending towards becoming a real swing state in upcoming polls, as the above seems to indicate. If Missouri does, in fact become a swing state, that would be excellent news for team Obama. If that happens, it's likely Arizona might also start falling into swing state status. For Republicans to have to spend time, money, effort and resources on
    two states Republicans had been counting would be huge going into the fall campaign.

    •  Missouri is the one state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath

      that seems to be trending toward the GOP.  It was one of the last states Bush won in 2000 and 2004, by very thin margins, and then McCain won it 2008, when he lost everything else.  The Dem Senate candidate is getting killed there, after Dems won in 2000 and 2004.  Counter to what I read above, Romney/Ryan is a stronger ticket than McCain/Palin.

      Romney will win Missouri, IN, and NC.  These are red states that Obama only won/competed in because the economy was collapsing like everything in that movie "2012".  It's all about FL, VA, OH - and then one other state from:  WI, CO, NH, IA.

      Period.

  •  It is too early to tell if Ryan's entrance is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EcosseNJ

    Having any real impact on the race.  From the RCP tally, the answer thus far is basically not much.  Romneymhas been forced to talk about medicare and while I would say he is willing to play a bad hand and put some money behind it, I feel like it is a short term measure that will create long-term problems for him in the fall.

    Romney is now arguing that Medicare should not cut to streamline waste but should also be eliminated.  He says he paid no less than 13% in taxes but won't reveal how much of his income he shielded from taxation.  He has no answer for his middle classntax increases.  His team now claims that Obama did not spend enough money while also claiming that Detroit should go bankrupt.

    It is a portrait of an unsteady hand at the helm.

    Ryan has also undermined himself as a serious candidate.  He is likeable to a GOP audience but so was Palin.  He can't defend his anti-women legislation.  He seems to argue for more stimulus spending and more bailouts while decrying Obama spending.  

    The Rmoney camping is unfocused and will simply come p wit random lie and contradiction and depend on the power of money to win the day.  Obama has a more coherent message with 75 mill per month to spend.  He'll be in a position to win this tng in November.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 at 06:36:11 PM PDT

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