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Leading Off:

NRCC: Underscoring that upstate New York will be a key area in deciding control of the House this year, the NRCC announced big ad reservations in four races, totaling $3.5 million. That includes $1.03 million backing super-vulnerable Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle in the 24th and $1.3 million boosting somewhat less vulnerable Chris Gibson in the 19th, as well as $757K and $574K going after Dems Bill Owens and Kathy Hochul in the 21st and 27th, respectively. That's not all, though: The NRCC made another eight reservations, in addition to the four in New York. They're doing $902K in the open AZ-01, $357K against Dem Bruce Braley in IA-01, $719K against David Loebsack in IA-02, $392K for Steve King in IA-04, $734K for Bobby Schilling in IL-17, $831K against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, $1.14 mil for Charlie Bass in NH-02, and $1.13 mil for Quico Canseco in TX-23.

And on a related note, I know you've been eagerly anticipating the links to the actual ads for the NRCC's first four independent expenditure (IE) buys in GA-12, NC-07, KY-06, and PA-12... so here they are.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Here's a bit of good news out of Arizona, where the primary is coming up, meaning that pre-primary reports were due with the FEC on Aug. 8. Dem Richard Carmona actually has a smidge more cash on hand than his likely GOP opponent, Jeff Flake, ahead $1.75 million to $1.71 million. Flake raised more during the period, but he's also having to spend more since he still has a competitive primary against Wil Cardon (though the likely-to-lose Cardon seems to be wrapping it up early).

FL-Sen: Rasmussen seems to figure that zigging when everybody else is zagging is the best way to fight off those pesky claims of bias. Their new poll of the Florida Senate race finds Democrat Bill Nelson leading Republican Connie Mack IV 47-40, one of Nelson's best margins in months. That comes after last month's poll put Mack ahead 46-37... a 16-point reversal of fortune.

MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren's latest TV ad is a feel-good compendium of news clips and man-on-the-street testimonials all touting her 'fighting for the middle class' bona fides.

ND-Sen: I'm not sure which Republican media team is having a worse time in North Dakota, in terms of getting called out for crossing the blatant BS line... the crack team at Crossroads, or Rick Berg's own campaign. Berg has had to ask three local TV stations to stop running an ad featuring a testimonial from a YWCA board member, which the YWCA demanded get taken down because it looked like an endorsement from them. Berg's response was merely to issue the same ad except with a fine-print disclaimer saying it was merely a personal endorsement, which on Wednesday the state's largest paper called "unethical" in an editorial (which in turn probably caused Berg to back down and pull it altogether). At any rate, Berg's team is claiming it was time for that ad to disappear anyway, as they're starting to roll out another regularly-scheduled new ad, this one touting his work on behalf of a veteran.

NV-Sen (PDF): Here's something we haven't seen in a while (since December 2011, to be precise): a poll with Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley in the lead in the Nevada Senate race, with a 44-42 edge over GOP incumbent Dean Heller. One caveat: it's an internal on behalf of the DSCC, from Garin-Hart-Yang. But, things look copacetic in the fine print: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-44 in the presidential race, and the D/R breakdown in the poll is 42/38, consistent with the 41/37 spread in the latest SoS's report.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown's campaign's newest ad is a hit on Josh Mandel, but at least it's kind of bright and peppy instead of the usual dark colors and voice-of-doom narration like the usual negative ad. That's partly thanks to the subject matter, though: Mandel's little junket down to the Bahamas on behalf of the payday lending industry.

VA-Sen: Democrat Tim Kaine has lots of cash and is leaving nothing to chance, so he's shelling out another $1 million in early reservations for fall advertising time (bringing his total reservations to $4.5 mil). Interestingly $250K of that new reservation is for Spanish-language media; you might not initially think of Virginia as being a state with a large Latino population, but it's up to 8% Hispanic in the most recent Census, nearly doubled over the last decade, with much of that population inside the Beltway.

WI-Sen: Rasmussen seems to figure that zigging when everybody else is zagging is the best way to fight off those pesky claims of bias. Their new poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Republican Tommy Thompson leading Democrat Tammy Baldwin 54-43, one of Thompson's best margins in months. That comes after last month's poll put Baldwin ahead 48-41... an 18-point reversal of fortune.

Meanwhile, we have two new ads from Team Blue in Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin's campaign is out with one of those awkward mix & match ads that's half talking about her accomplishments, then after an abrupt gearshift in the music and narration, half hitting Tommy Thompson for wanting to raise taxes. Wisconsin Women Vote! (the IE arm for EMILY's List) meanwhile offers a pure negative spot detailing what Thompson has been up to in his years since being Governor (working as a corporate lobbyist, in other words).

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov (?): This is certainly an odd ad, one that may say more about Charlie Crist's potential future running for Governor again than about his current job (lawyer/commercial pitchman for a local plaintiff-side law firm). It's a 30-second ad for his firm, Morgan & Morgan; there are no questions about "have you been injured?" but only requests you "thank a teacher today."

NH-Gov: Here's a way to break through the clutter: fill your ad with zombies stumbling around, instead of the usual stock footage and newspaper headlines. It's the distinctive and humorous opening ad from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jackie Cilley, and the zombies are "pledge zombies," in other words, candidates who are abiding by the "no-tax pledge" that has a hold on both parties in New Hampshire. The "pledge" is a long-time standard in NH politics, one that not just the Republican candidates in the race but also Cilley's Democratic opponent, Maggie Hassan, are honoring. While Cilley hasn't specifically called for creating an income tax, in the ad (once she's beaten back the zombies) she reiterates her case for having an "adult conversation" on the issue instead of just reflexively rejecting it.

House:

CA-26, NY-18: The Dem-backing House Majority PAC is wading right into the nation's two most expensive media markets, although they must think they have a good shot in both districts to make that kind of investment. They're reserving $1 million in the LA market on behalf of Julia Brownley in the 26th, and $1.2 million in the NYC market on behalf of Sean Patrick Maloney. These are just reservations, so no link to the ads yet.

NC-07: On Thursday we saw the first independent expenditure ad from one of the House committees (the DCCC), with the expectation that their counterparts at the NRCC would be joining the battle momentarily. And here they are, rolling out IE ads in four of the reddest districts with Dem incumbents. The Raleigh News & Observer, however, points out that the NC-07 buy is very small, $27,600... a little better than pure "video press release" but not much better.

The Wilmington-based 7th is clearly going to be one of the epicenters of the House ad wars, as it's the scene of the DCCC's second IE ad, shoring up incumbent Mike McIntyre. Like their MI-01 ad from last week, it takes full advantage of the new focus on Paul Ryan's budget to hit Republican David Rouzer on Medicare (again invoking "essentially ending Medicare" and "more than $6,000" without actually mentioning Ryan by name). And on top of that, McIntyre's out with his campaign's first ad, a 60-second spot that he narrates himself, re-introducing himself and talking vaguely about values.

NY-17: The race in the Dem-leaning 17th is pretty low on most observer's watch lists, with the caveat that Republican candidate Joe Carvin is a hedge fund manager in his spare time and has self-funded to the tune of at least $1 million. Using that advantage, he's hitting the airwaves with the race's first ad. It's a fairly generic ad with 15 seconds of hitting Dem incumbent Nita Lowey (using the most unflattering picture they could possibly find) and 15 seconds of reference to his own tax-cutting skills as Rye Town Supervisor.

PA-12: Keith Rothfus is out with a new ad that (at least I think) is trying to be humorous about the usual "regular guy" cliches that lame introductory bio ads traffic in, playing mock-heroic music and using oversized text onscreen to highlight the regular-guy things that he does. (He does throw in a dig at Obamacare toward the end, just to let you know he's a Republican regular guy.)

Grab Bag:

House: In case you like looking at long lists of House districts (where the latest round of robocalls is going out) just as much as I do, they've got a good one at Politico's Morning Score. It's the 42 districts where Republican establishment groups Congressional Leadership Fund and YG Action Fund that tries to hit Dems on Medicare (interestingly, trying to muddy the waters even more by using the Dem talking point of "ending Medicare as we know it" in reference to the $700 billion in Medicare "cuts" that they usually harp on). Most of the districts are no surprise, but just as with the DCCC robocalls last week, the list includes the previously unheralded OH-10 and PA-07, so maybe there is indeed something going on in those two races.

Media: Congratulations to Jon Ralston, one of our favorite state-level political reporters; after more than a decade with the Las Vegas Sun, he's leaving that paper and setting up shop at his own website.

RNC: The Republican National Committee is the first of the big 6 committees to report its July numbers: they raised $37.7 million in July, leaving them with $88.7 million cash on hand.

Voter Suppression: You're probably aware that Ohio's Republican SoS just moved to cut down on early voting hourse... but a similar move in Florida just got struck down by a federal court. What does Florida have that Ohio doesn't? Section 5 of the VRA, that's what. The cut, by the Republican-controlled state legislature from 12 early voting days to 8, can't apply in Florida's five preclearance counties, because it has a disparate impact on black voters (who use early voting more than white voters).

Redistricting Roundup:

Maryland Redistricting: The Maryland Democrats' court challenge to a proposed referendum on the state's redistricting map seemed a bit of longshot, and, indeed, on Friday the state supreme court rejected the challenge. That means that the referendum, which seeks to roll back the map developed by the Dem-controlled state legislature, will appear on the November ballot. (Even if it gets struck down by referendum, that won't stop the current map from applying to this year's election, and it also gives the state Dems a chance to draw a map with the same 7-1 effect but cleaner-looking lines.) The Dems' challenge focused on the fact that signatures were solicited online, allegedly an invitation to fraud, although the procedure involved printing out a form and mailing it in.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Are they serious with Braley and Loebsack ? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    or will the cancel the reservations when the the middling GOP opponents fail to gain traction ?

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:21:20 AM PDT

  •  WOW (7+ / 0-)

    RT @Steve_Lombardo Romney has to go on camera and demand that Akin withdraw from the race. Would make for a defining moment in the campaign.

    Steve's a GOP pollster, he reads numbers as well as the best of them.

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:31:51 AM PDT

    •  Another opportunity for a Sister Souljah moment (7+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MartyM, Woody, bythesea, atdnext, Odysseus, askew, jncca

      I thought the best opportunity was criticizing Bachmann's comments about Huma Abedin.

      This might actually be a bit more tricky given that, while most conservatives are critical of Akin's comments, Romney's criticism might be seen as him not being strongly anti- abortion rights.

    •  Two chances for that happening (9+ / 0-)

      Virtually none, and none.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:43:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mike Murphy calling for Akin to step down too (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Radiowalla, atdnext

      he's big time

      Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

      by Bharat on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:18:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes and no...... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, Woody, atdnext, itskevin

        Murphy isn't loved by a lot of GOPers, he goes off the reservation a lot in a very public way.  He might be the closest thing the GOP has to Doug Schoen/Mark Penn/Pat Caddell, even though Murphy isn't nearly the needle in the side of his own party that they are......but in the heavily disciplined GOP, I think they probably regard him much the same.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:22:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Akin's wife wouldn't let him (14+ / 0-)

        even if he wanted to, according to First Read:

        But a source with ties to Akin’s political operation tells First Read that the GOP congressman most likely won’t quit the contest, saying Akin believes this race is “providential” and even if Akin was ready to get out, his wife would never let him quit. The person with knowledge of Akin’s political operation adds: “She makes him seem like the reasonable one.”
        http://firstread.nbcnews.com/

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:27:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  More great First Read tidbits today (9+ / 0-)

          Here is the link:  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...

          Most interestingly, Akin can withdraw between tomorrow and September 25 if he both can secure a court order granting his withdrawal request, and pays for the cost of replacing printed ballots.  I have no idea how hard that is in practice.  That said, as I've said before I don't buy it that he will ever drop out.

          Secondly, Romney's got a third welfare reform attack ad today!  I guess this must be testing well in their polling and focus groups???  It's still hard for me to believe, intuitively it still strikes me as far removed from what voters care about this year.

          Thirdly and more interestingly to me, Obama is airing seven completely different topical radio ads in seven different states, attacking seven different aspects of the Ryan plan.  That's at least an improvement over last week.  And maybe this was the plan all along?...I don't know.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:49:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think maybe the Obama Camp strategy... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, Larsstephens

            In dealing with the Ryan Budget is to fight it off the front pages.  They want it more a guerrilla campaign that will be fought with micro targeting and house district by house district because they feel they can get fair(er) coverage on the Ryan Budget in the local papers than if it was a huge national issue where the MSM would just muddy the issue.  

            An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

            by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:57:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  There are at least two major (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, atdnext

            versions of the Ryan plan that were voted on by Republicans in congress, and each has some differences with one another, so I can see how the attack ads might be different.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:04:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  By the way, I'm beginning to think (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              atdnext

              there might be an opening for OFA to make the case that Romney-Ryan would save money by kicking younger seniors off of Medicare, despite what they claim now. I'm going to explain this in a little more detail at some point later today, as I have to run out soon. But suffice it to say right now that if this can at least bring us back to where we were in 2008, I'm struggling to see how we don't win.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:44:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Crossing my fingers (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, askew

          that he stays in, and then become roadkill for McKaskill.

          His wife is pushing him to stay in?  Man, you can read a lot of Freudian overtones in his statement, wondering if he thinks his wife bosses him around...

    •  Worried about losing Akin (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DeepBlu

      I really hope that Akin stays the MO nominee.  If Akin drops out, the replacement might be too strong for McKaskill to defeat.  

      And I worry about Romney getting a boost in the polls if he really does get Akin to resign.

      •  As someone said above, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, jncca

        there's virtually no chance of Romney doing anything powerful about this. He's too much of a wimp to defend Richard Grennell, the gay foreign policy guy from his campaign who resigned after very slight pressure from a few right-wing cranks. That was his campaign, and the decision was his own, not anyone else's. Akin has no particular reason to listen to him, unless Romney's determined to grab control of the party in ways we can only imagine in the 36 hours and tell him he's cut off. I just don't think that's likely--if it's even possible!

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:04:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Let's face it (0+ / 0-)

      Romney, as the presidential candidate, faces a FAR more important race than the senate race in Missouri. There is no reason for Romney to stick his neck out when he doesn't have any spare political capital to spare.

      Abortion, of all issues, is one that Romney REALLY wants to be put on the back burner, given his own history on the issue.

  •  Saw that Rasmussen poll the other day (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, CocoaLove

    and figured that if they have Nelson up by 7, then he must actually be up by 20!

    As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them. John F. Kennedy

    by JaxDem on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:44:19 AM PDT

  •  wingnuts sour on Rasmussen (9+ / 0-)

    The guy who runs the website  Election projection who is a born again wing nut and heavily relies on Rasmussen has said he is doubting Rasmussen's polling this year and is now going to throw out many of his senate polls as outliers because they are so out of sync.
    He noted the new WI senate poll showing Baldwin losing by 11 as hard to swallow. He looked back and agreed Rasmussen
    sucked in 2010 and seems out of sync this year.
    If Ras is losing the wing nuts he is in trouble. Funny how Obama starts doing better in national polling after his right wing buddies start to criticize him.

    •  The thing that can persuade GOPers... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, atdnext, itskevin

      ...to stop trusting Rasmussen is, indeed, the wild swing.  They're too partisan to distrust a GOP bias, but it's a lot easier to point to the wild swings in Rasmussen's Wisconsin and Florida Senate polls and persuade them those swings aren't plausible.

      That's where Scotty has dropped the ball on his subscribers.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:18:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Scott Elliot has almost always been objective (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, DeepBlu

      His track record on projecting electoral votes, results in the Senate, and (to a slightly lesser extent, the) House, has been stellar.

      However, as Elliot listens to facts and data, he is --far-- from your typical evangelical conservative. Others on the right, I believe, will continue to use Rasmussen to support their arguments.

      If he's seeing what our user DCCyclone has been saying for the past couple of months (well almost, to read the details), then a circumstantial case can be made (like the case that was originally made against R2K) that Rasmussen is "cooking the books"

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:31:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Elliot has never relied "heavily" on Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      in any case -- His forumlas are public -- ref http://www.electionprojection.com/...

      and Rasmussen has no extra weight in Eliott's formulas, and AFAIK never has.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:36:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  TRUE (0+ / 0-)

        He is blinded to Rasmussen's partisanship but true he doesn't count his polls any more than any other. He also has issues with PPP feeling they are to pro democratic when in reality they are probably the best pollster out there.
        Scott's prediction are very accurate, he seems frustrated that Romney is doing so poorly in state polling  because he says national polling doesn't support the result.

  •  i wrote a diary on Pres. TV spending (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, bear83, Woody, atdnext, MBishop1, askew

    where I took the total spending on Presidential ads in individuals swing states, and then divided the total by the amount of voters in 2008.

    this is what i found:

    Photobucket

    I'd appreciate any feedback on the diary.

    peace

    -- Diary: Per capita TV spending shows FL receiving less attention than NV, NH, IA, CO, VA & OH.

    by distraught on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:57:58 AM PDT

    •  IN (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      distraught, bjssp

      I hope the Obama campaign can secure NC, IA, and VA enough to start spending in IN.  I think there's still a possibility that Obama keeps all his 2008 states.

    •  Interesting info (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      distraught

      Good stuff in this table and in the diary.

      FL as been getting a lot less spending than other battlegrounds. That could change quickly if the voters there start to understand Ryan's ugly plans to cut their earned retirement benefits.

      But I can understand Team Obama's hesitancy to put its nickles into FL. This is the state where a full and honest count of ballots that did not feature a tricky design would surely have been the state that made Al Gore our President. This is the state that elected a Medicare fraudster as its Governor. This is a state busily cleansing its voter rolls of people with funny names and intermittent voting records.

      •  Obama is in good shape in Florida (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        distraught, MBishop1, DeepBlu, Woody

        If you look at the raw data from the Florida SoS website, there were 200,000 more "active" registered voters when he closed the books in July for the primary than there were when they closed the books in October, 2008. Hundreds of thousands of additional 2008'ers are "inactive" but can still vote, all they have to do is show up at the polls.

        Also, the SoS data breaks voters down by race. In October 2008, the Florida registered voter pool was 69% white. In July, it was 67.5% white. And this is before the Obama campaign and third party groups have swung into high gear with registrations.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:45:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  maybe Floridians are more tired of ads (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        I wonder if the several hotly contested elections in Florida have made it so TV ads are less effective in FL than in other swing states that might not have received as much attention.

        I also think that the campaigns appear to be spending relative to what the other campaign is spending in the state, rather than making their decision based off of some grand analysis where more money would be spent on the voters of states with a higher return on investment.

        -- Diary: Per capita TV spending shows FL receiving less attention than NV, NH, IA, CO, VA & OH.

        by distraught on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:58:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hard to stop (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          distraught

          I think you're right about the two sides  mostly matching each other and marking time. Neither side dares stop the TV ads, for fear of the pontificators declaring that they have "conceded" the state.

          Meanwhile both sides are trying to figure out what to do with, or do about, Paul Ryan. (And what the heck to do with, or about, Todd Aiken.) And the convention messages starting next week may swamp any paid messaging on TV. So we are probably looking at the quiet before the spending storm hits FL and NC.

  •  Couple interesting Chuck Todd tweets this a.m. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, Woody, bythesea, atdnext

    First, Todd tweeted that he's seen what he calls "weird" state polls circulating this morning, but he hints that some of them have numbers going out to decimal places which is a reason to distrust them.  But I haven't found any new state polls today, so I don't know what he speaks of.  But his rule on decimal places is the same as our own David Nir's...glad they're on the same page, as I, too, agree.  We all should keep a lookout for these mysterious polls, if they're public.

    Second, Todd says on MO-Sen there is a second "dropout" deadlne for Akin of September 25th, and Todd would explain what that means on Daily Rundown which I'm not watching today.  If anyone can shine a light on this, much appreciated.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:25:57 AM PDT

  •  No mention of NY-18 here? Strange... (0+ / 0-)

    ...since it's definitely a dogfight in this swing district now...btwn. Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney and incumbent GOP'er Nan Hayworth.

    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:26:24 AM PDT

  •  Say Akin drops out - what about $ McCaskill spent (0+ / 0-)

    against him in attack ads? It would mean she essentially wasted money on those ads - could be a million bucks worth already.  

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:31:41 AM PDT

    •  No way to plan for that (7+ / 0-)

      You cannot and should not anticipate that your opponent spontaneously drops out less than a week after winning a hotly contested primary.  That's even more true when that opponent is scandal-free......Akin isn't in trouble for any kind of forseeable political or personal corruption.

      So yes Claire's dollars would be wasted, but so what?  That's life, which as they say is what happens when you're making other plans.

      That said, Akin won't drop out.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:39:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Chuck Todd is saying he has a Sept 25 drop date (0+ / 0-)

        as well, so a month and a week before the election he could still drop out?  Now at this later date Brunner, Steelman would have their campaign infrastructure largely crumbled, but if they jumped in tomorrow they'd hardly miss a beat - and in Brunners case he could self fund from the jump.

        I'm not saying you plan for your opponent to drop out or hold money back - but there should be a remedy if they do.  Like you can get that money back by having the max donation limit temporarily lifted or something.  If she spent $1M on ads, than she should be able to recoup that money.  

        An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:45:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt there's any legal recourse on money (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, itskevin

          You're on the hook for whatever you spend.  It wouldn't be very popular in the court of public opinion to have a rule that says you get a refund on attack ad costs when your opponent drops out!  And I'd be shocked if any such rule exists.

          I don't see Akin dropping out, period.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:52:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It would also make the GOP look weak (7+ / 0-)

      Switching up candidates after the primary looks really bad, especially in a state with a history of machine politics.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:43:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As McCaskill said, the people of MO chose (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, Woody

        this guy. I think there could  be a backlash from the
        hardright who voted for this guy, if the "washington" republicans force him out.

         Whether it was a "legtimate force out" would be up to the individual to decide. I take that back, republicans don't believe  in an individual's rights, they will probably do what they are told.

        Today's problems are yesterday's solutions. Don Beck

        by Sherri in TX on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:35:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It depends on whom they pick (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          to replace Akin, if it comes to that, but also how tight we anticipate the race to be. Unless the hypothetical replacement is completely unacceptable to the base, at which point all bets are off, it's not likely to make a huge difference--unless, that is, the race is really just that tight and Akin has a staunchly loyal following that just refuses to show up. But if those last two things are true, then McCaskill's probably been in better shape than we realize all along.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:58:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Spending money on Steve King? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mmacdDE

    Is that whack job vulnerable?

    •  Yes, new district, much less red (8+ / 0-)

      King's new district has only a modest GOP lean, compared to his previous safe seat.

      And Christie Vilsack is a well-funded and poltiically skilled Democratic nominee with great name recognition from being former Governor (and current Agriculture Secretary) Tom Vilsack's wife.

      So it's a dogfight.

      What I've seen so far says King still has an edge despite being a huge whackjob.  Vilsack needs to call out his extremism in TV ads in the roughly one-half of the district that is new to him and significantly unfamiliar with him.  That's really the key.  When you have a whackjob opponent, call him out as such.  Ron Klein would've done well to realize that, but didn't and so lost to Allen West.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:43:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for these numbers.... (0+ / 0-)

    So depressed on the Wisconsin Numbers.  I know people there, and unfortunately, they are Glenn Beck Type Republicans.....very far right leaning.

    Keep up the good work on reporting these numbers.

    •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

      I think the uber-strong RW talk radio stations (WTMJ and WISN), have really tipped wisconsin to the right.   Tommy is going to be very hard to beat.   I hope Tammy can get a debate scheduled soon.   She is not well known at all away from Madison.  She needs exposure right now!

      •  Poll this week? (0+ / 0-)

        I think Marquette University is realeasing a poll this week.  Marquette nailed Walker's win in the recall election.  It's been proven to be pretty good in other elections as well, so it is one we need to take a good look at.

  •  R's spending $831K in NC-7? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    Despite the NC GOP's best efforts to gerrymander McIntire out of his seat, its good to see the Republicans still having to spend big bucks to try to unseat him.

    McIntire's a DINO, but as long as he sides with Democrats on House leadership votes, I hope he hangs on.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:55:39 AM PDT

  •  FL-10: Val Demings 1st ad. (10+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:57:58 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen is working extra hard (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    In today's poll he has Romney up 1 44-43. He needed to get Romney ahead somehow and shows 6% voting third party, pretty hard to swallow that.
    Anyway I figure he will have Romney up over 50 after the convention but I have to laugh when I look at his daily tracker because Romney is not getting any more popular.

  •  Those GOP Ads Are Not One Size Fits All (0+ / 0-)

    They have a variety of distortions in each one. Depressing that they are targeting Democratic incumbents. Are they hoping to have a bigger margin this year? Hoping some ant-Ryan themed ads could take them on.

  •  Florida: Worst poll ever (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, OGGoldy, sapelcovits

    http://www.scribd.com/...

    According to Fulmer & Associates, a poll with 1.33% under-30's is "very consistent with the projected voter demographic considerations andpredictive voter behavior analysis model for a Florida November General election."  Whatever that means.

  •  NY-26: Kathy Hochul's 1st ad. (5+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:09:27 AM PDT

    •  Eh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      I guess both are popular issues, but just seems kind of disjointed to put them both in the same ad.

    •  Running from the right (0+ / 0-)

      She brags that she voted for the balanced budget amendment with all the killer cuts to aid to education, aid to scientific and medical research, operations of National Parks and national forests, cutting environmental protections, ending Amtrak, etc.

      But since this is not my district, it doesn't much matter that she turns me off by repeating and reinforcing the Repub talking points. This election year I am balancing my budget by not making donations to Dems taking on Repub point of view.

      •  ad is clearly designed to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        present her as tough, no-nonsense. Look at the black and white outfit she's wearing. No frills. May work. We'll see.

        In my book she's still coasting on some goodwill for flipping a Red seat. It's not like she's going to be setting Democratic policy in the House, if she retains her seat. she has a long way to go before she becomes an opinion leader there.  

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:34:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  this district is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, jncca

          what, 44% Obama? and this isn't Appalachian conservadems either, these are actual Republicans. If she's going to win, she needs to pull out all the stops.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:47:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  her team must have confidence in the ad (0+ / 0-)

            Because they e-mailed it out to her list, 8 minutes ago, to fund-raise from.

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:55:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  This is also very banal stuff. (0+ / 0-)

            The BBA and cutting foreign aid to Country X are about the easiest things for a politician to say. I'm not surprised, nor bothered at all, by Hochul saying them.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 09:56:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  More daily tracker weirdness (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, atdnext

    Obama's approval rating is up in both polls, but no change in Gallup head to head, and now a slight lead for Romney in Ras. Which I guess is to be expected for Ras. And Gallup's head to head is a seven day average, so maybe we will see a change.

    Anyway, I expect a lot of polls this week right before the RNC.

    •  So, according to RAss (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, itskevin

      6% of "likely" voters approve of Obama's performance, but will vote for Romney.  O  K.

      Agree that Gallup will probably show an uptick for Obama in the horserace.  But their poll, with often day after day of little change, is ridiculous.  RAss is biased.  I'm not sure what Gallup is, other than garbage.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:32:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL 17: Schilling internal has him up 50-37 (0+ / 0-)

    compared to 51-35 in May.

    http://capitolfax.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:38:19 AM PDT

    •  Shilling is the Repub ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, askew

      ... for those who have not yet memorized the party affiliations of the candidates running for the 435 House seats.

      So he's down 1 point and his Democratic opponent is up 2 points since the previous poll. The tend is good, but we'd need five times that movement to get to 45-45. I'm afraid time is running out.

      •  I lift up mine eyes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        to her fund-raising, whence cometh help for Cheri Bustos.  

        According to my notes, that was solid through Q1 of 2012.

        For the most part we rocked the redistricting in Illinois, but one does feel a pang of regret for the old district that was so Blue-safe that the GOP didn't bother running a candidate in the 2008 cycle.

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:39:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ok (0+ / 0-)

      we seriously have no excuse to lose this one. Bustos is a good candidate on paper. Schilling is nothing special. what's going on?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:48:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  eh? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      The poll memo said that Obama was up 10 in the district, so Schilling would have to be running about 12 points ahead of Romney. That would be a stretch for Frank Wolf or Dave Reichert, let alone for an orthodox conservative freshman up against a non-toxic Dem. They said that Schilling's favorables were 40/22 which is difficult to believe and (along with the topline) suggests that they may have asked some leading questions before the horse race question.

      That said, unless Bustos releases her own internal it suggests that Schilling is ahead. She should still win here but it may not be as easy as it looked at first.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:52:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  she did release her own internal (0+ / 0-)

        it was from February and showed her down on the initial ballot (and only +4 when bios were read). wtf?

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:56:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I will remind people of a GOP internal in 2010... (0+ / 0-)

        ...for GOPer Joseph Cao who had beaten Dollar Bill Jefferson in New Orleans.

        A GOP private poll was disclosed that summer with Cao up something like 50-29 over Cedric Richmond.  In a district that is majority black!

        Richmond went on to win 63-33, if I remember correctly.

        Do not take incredulous disclosed private polls at face value.  No IL-11 isn't so one-sidedly Democratic, but the piont is valid that what's released is not always fully honest.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 10:03:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Akin cancels KMOX interview (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Apparently on a plane.  Destination unknown.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:45:07 AM PDT

    •  He's done. He's gonna drop out. (0+ / 0-)

      He has zero support around him - only way being on a plane destination unknown is a good thing for him staying in is if he's heading to a popular mega church some where to pray on his mistake and then claim he was forgiven by Jesus or something.  

      But I think the religious right will get him to drop out as well, as they want the Mo. seat more than anything else because they already have a true believer in Ryan at the top of the ticket, so figure they could get Steelman or Brunner to win in Missouri and both would be just as socially conservative but much more likely to win now.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:04:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not Sounding Good..... (0+ / 0-)

      Could very well about to be Torricelli-ed.

      •  Who's to say he'll listen. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        He's not apart of the establishment. In fact, he and the establishment hate each other. He could be trying to get their support to stem the wound, but they won't give it to him and he'll ignore them.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:20:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Gallup: Obama up 47-44 in 12 swing states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, askew

    Romney up 47-45 in the other 38 states.

    The battleground states surveyed are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin
    http://www.usatoday.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 07:53:22 AM PDT

    •  hmm, does the other 38 states number (0+ / 0-)

      make sense? Seems like we rarely see that.

      •  It's Gallup, so who knows (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:07:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well, it COULD (0+ / 0-)

        Depending on how (relatively) badly Obama is doing in California. If Obama is ahead 55-45 in California, but behind 65-35 in Texas, that would make sense.

      •  looks dubious to me (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        If you look at the average Obama lead in these 12 states in 2008 it was only very slightly (less than 1%) ahead of his overall national lead. So I don't buy a 5 point divergence between the swing state picture and the "other 38".

        If the poll was correct it would mean that Obama is significantly outperforming his national numbers in the battleground states, by something in the region of 2 points, and would give him a powerful advantage in the electoral college.

        But my money would rather be on a duff poll.

    •  So many swing states! Not. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, askew

      Gallup and USAToday may count 12 swing states. But based on the TV spending (see comment above and linked diary by Distraught), we have in fact only 8 true battlegrounds. That's because nobody is on the air in PA, MI, WI, or NM (New Mexico? for heavens' sakes), and not a helluva lot is going on in FL and NC.

      I guess that means that the Democrats are much farther ahead in NM, PA, MI, and WI than the others.

      So the reverse means we are actually not so far ahead as the Gallup/USAToday figures suggest in the remaining 6 or 8 true swing states currently being contested.

      •  on a back-of-the-envelope calculation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        I make it that these numbers represent about a 4-5% swing away from Obama since 2008 in these 12 states as a whole. On a uniform swing that means he'd probably be losing NC and FL, very close in OH and VA, and winning the rest.

        Since he gets to 272 EV even without OH or VA, that's still just about good enough.

  •  Zogby FL: Obama 47-41 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    NC:  Romney 45-43.

    http://www.jzanalytics.com/

    With all the ususal caveats.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 08:00:24 AM PDT

  •  I don't remember if GHY... (0+ / 0-)

    Polled Nevada before, but the numbers seem reasonable. And as I keep saying here, don't dismiss it just because Razzy & other GOP aligned pollsters have nudged the poll averages in Dean Heller's favor. As I said in MichaelNY's diary yesterday, there are quite a few likely Democratic voters who are being excluded from most of these polls' respective samples.

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