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Tom is a fellow blogger at who most recently announced Ryan Paul's pick with a breaking news article two days before the fact.

Since he has become our master prognosticator I want to share his insight into why Todd Akin will quit even if he says he won't.

I am reposting Tom's article here with his permission:

It's a done deal. Todd Akin is toast. He will withdraw from the Missouri Senate race either today or Tuesday.  The rationale is spelled out in this Politico blog post:

There is a whirlwind of speculation about whether Akin will or should withdraw from the race, especially considering how crucial the Senate seat would be to a potential Republican takeover of the Senate.
The Plonker himself threatens Akin's family:
Mitt Romney on Monday stopped short of calling for Rep. Todd Akin to resign his bid for the U.S. Senate, as several other Republicans have done, but said the Missouri congressman should take 24 hours to think through things for his family and country.

Romney is not actually, literally, asking Akin to quit the race.  (Nor is he, literally, threating Akins family.)  However the "24 hours" is obvious code for "I am giving you exactly 24 hours to withdraw", since that is the actual remaining time for him to do so according to Missouri state law.

Republican Senator Scott Brown, in a tough reelection race in Massachusetts, has already called on Akin to resign:

"As a husband and father of two young women, I found Todd Akin's comments about women and rape outrageous, inappropriate and wrong," Brown wrote in a statement released by his campaign. "There is no place in our public discourse for this type of offensive thinking. Not only should he apologize, but I believe Rep. Akin's statement was so far out of bounds that he should resign the nomination for US Senate in Missouri."

If Akin's wasn't just destroying Republican hopes of a Senate take-over, his wingnut rant was also imperiling other races. For example, Democrats can now equate Paul Ryan with Todd Akin based on their similar voting records:
The fear among Republicans is that Akin's remarks not only could cost them the Missouri Senate race — and the battle for the Senate — but that it could also hurt Romney and down-ballot Republicans in other states. ..

Like Akin, Ryan is a co-sponsor of the “Sanctity of Human Life Act,” a so-called personhood measure that defines life as beginning at “fertilization, cloning or its functional equivalent” and empowers the federal and state governments to pass laws to protect life from that point on. The bill makes no exception for rape.

Todd Akin is finished.
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