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Just out from PPP:  

First, without Virgil Goode on the ballot:

PPP's newest poll of Virginia finds Barack Obama leading by 5 points, 50-45. In 8 Virginia surveys PPP has done this cycle, Obama has never led Mitt Romney by less than 4 points. It continues to look like it could be his firewall state this fall.

Obama's continued success in the state is very much a product of its rapidly changing population. Among voters who have lived in Virginia for less than 20 years Obama leads Romney 62-32. When you narrow it to folks who have come to the state in the last ten years his advantage expands even further to 67-29. Romney leads 51-45 with folks who have been in Virginia for more than 20 years and they make up 68% of the electorate, but the transplants are so heavily Democratic that he leads the state overall.

One effect the newer voters are having on the Virginia electorate is to make it more racially diverse. Obama trails 56-40 with white voters, but with non-whites he's ahead 75-19.

And then with Virgil on the ballot
The Virgil Goode situation continues to be worth keeping an eye on in Virginia. Our new poll finds him receiving only 4% of the vote but he pulls it pretty much all from Romney, pushing him down to 42% while Obama remains at 50%, giving him an 8 point lead. It's unlikely Goode will really end up having that big of an effect if he gets on the ballot, but if it gets to the point where Virginia is just decided by a point or so social conservatives in his old district voting for him instead of Romney really could prove to be a difference maker.
Virgil Goode has turned in 18,000 signatures (10,000 needed) and is likely to be on the ballot.    He is very popular in south-central Virginia, and his support might not drop much between now and November.

Note that the Kerry states, plus New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia add up to 270.   That's a win even if Romney carries Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina (four of which are unlikely, IMO).    But we need to keep up the momentum in Virginia....

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