earlier today, they released some non-prez figures:
22% say they are more likely to pick romney b/c of ryan; 23% less. This is less than previous VP announcements w/biden 24% more/16% less and palin at 34%/25%.
They also put out a poll on congress. apparently, it's at an all-time low for the history of the survey w/12% approving and 82% dis. they also say that people view dems (42-40) better than repubs (36-45)
I saw bits of the presidential poll originally on Hardball, but the official numbers aren't being released until 630. I'm not sure if this is a NBC/Marist poll, but Nate Silver has them [nbc/marist] at a d+1.9 house effect, so keep that in mind.
the numbers:
Obama up 48-44 in general election trial.
there are full demographic breakdowns available at first read, but i wanted to highlight what i saw on hardball (i can't even imagine im writing that sentence):
What’s more, Obama bests Romney by 35 points (58 percent to 23 percent) on the question of which candidate is more likeable, and by 22 points (52 percent to 30 percent) on caring about average people.
In addition, a majority of voters (51 percent) view the former Massachusetts governor’s approach to issues as being “out of step” with most Americans’ thinking. By comparison, 54 percent say Obama’s positions are “in the mainstream.”
And by a 36 percent to 6 percent difference, voters say what they have seen, heard and read about Romney’s tax returns – he has refused to release returns prior to 2010 – has given them a more negative impression of the Republican candidate. Forty-one percent say it doesn’t make much of a difference.
Problematically for Romney, similar negative margins exist with swing voters like independents, suburban voters and Midwest residents.
i think it's clear that the O's decision to define romney in july and august is paying off, and his real challenge is to reset the campaign at the convention (after his VP-reset failed ~ apparently, he failed to blow on the cartridge enough ;) ) . now, if this were 2008 and his convention were second, i think there'd be a chance for a redefinition, but w/dem's rebuttal coming
a few weeks later the next week [h/t to TexasDem n Jacoby Jonze], i'm not sure he'll be able to.
UPDATE:
Not to harsh your collective buzzes, but this is a 2 point loss for TeamO from last month's poll.
I also went further into the numbers and specific poll questions as well and here's some more questions.
* right track/wrong track is down a point with it standing 32-61 (opposed to 32-60). Also, approval is down a net 2 going to 48-49 from 49-48. O is still down 1:2 on his handling of the economy, but, lo and behold, he holds a +10 on his foreign policy handling.
* asked if they would feel: optimistic n confident; satisfied n hopeful; uncertain n wondering; or, pessimistic and worried with either BHO or rMoney as prez, O was split at 50-50 between the positive-negative options, but R at 41-58.
* another interesting tidbit: they asked (and rotated the candidates) if "what you have seen, read or heard in the last couple weeks...give you more or less favorable impression of CANDIDATE. R: -12 up, from -15, with O: -10, up from -17.
more congressional numbers also say that, by a +5 margin (up from +1), people want dem's in control of congress but "my rep deserves to be elected" is up 3 points, (8/12: 43-47 from 40-48)
I'd like to keep posting bits about the poll, but not sure how far fair use will go with it.
I also think that O and TeamD needs to keep tying romney-RYAN together to with the republican platform which, as it is getting more and more airplay over the past few weeks, people are beginning to actually realize how extremist it is. As Barry sez: this election is about a choice between two FUNDAMENTALLY different views of how America should operate and just how far We the People, acting in concert through the federal government, should go in being there for our fellow citizens.
As my father once put it to me: "America allows anyone to succeed, but it also allows people to fail." I, for one, don't think it's good public policy to have a society of failures, and think we all need to be there for one another. I still dream that one day BHO will dust off FDR's economic bill of rights and make that part of the official platform.
edit: i updated this diary twice (once at 7 and again at 7:30 et) to include more from the actual poll results, and for some more commentary so adjust your tips and rec's accordingly.