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Republicans need to gain four seats, or three seats plus the White House, to take control. 23 Democratic seats are up, versus 10 Republican. Can they do it? Will it even be close?  Here's an overview, with none of the usual partisan rose-colored spectacles.

Here are your contested races:

Maine: Currently Republican, will go independent. Angus King, if only we could clone him.

Wisconsin: Currently Democratic, leans Republican. Rasmussen has done the only recent polling on this, and puts Thompson (R) ahead by 9. PPP last polled at the start of August and had it tied. So this one is a toss-up, but Ryan's favorability numbers statewide in a CNN poll from mid August are +18.  Romney's favorability is +3, so I'm putting this one as a loss for the Democrats.  

Nevada: Currently Republican, will go Democratic.  Polls show this one neck and neck, I'm calling it on the basis of coatails. Every poll - even Rasmussen - shows Obama ahead, most by 5 or 6, and the trend has been towards the incumbent President. In addition, this race is in the Pacific time zone.  Election night, there's a good chance that the Presidential race will be called once the polls close on the east coast, if Obama wins even two of the big four (Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, I'm assuming he gets Pennsylvania). That's 5 pm in Nevada, sending Republican turnout down and Democratic turnout up. In addition, this was a strong state for Ron Paul, his supporters are, to put it mildly, not enthusiastic about Romney

North Dakota: Currently Democratic, will go Republican. Polls are all over the place on this one, but I'm making another coattails call: Romney will carry the state by a wide margin and take Berg with him. If anything, I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the Republicans here, as Heitkamp has shown recent momentum and is closing the gap. Expect big money from Rove's Crossroads GPS to keep Berg above water until election day.

Missouri: Currently Democratic, will go Republican, even after going full Neanderthal, Akin's poll numbers didn't drop.  

Massachusetts: Currently Republican, will go Democratic, Warren is running a better campaign.

Nebraska: Currently Democratic, will go Republican. Fischer is stomping Kerrey by over 20 points.

Too close to call: Arizona (R). Normally this would be a slam-dunk for Republicans, but Democrats have a very strong candidate in Carmona, and if Hispanic turnout is high he has a shot.

That's a net pickup for Republicans of 1 seat, assuming Maine independent Angus King caucuses with the Democratic majority (which is very likely). If Flake loses the Arizona race, zero change in the numbers.

Looking ahead to 2014, 20 Democratic seats are up, versus 13 Republicans. A particularly juicy target for Democrats that year will be Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), who won reelection in 2008 with only 53%.


Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 5:11 PM PT: Looks like I was very wrong on Missouri.  I've never been happier to be wrong. While Akin could get out of the race via a petition to a judge, it looks like he's going to ride this one in to the ground. That changes the number for my prediction to net zero, no net gain or loss.


Will Democrats Hold the Senate in 2012?

71%110 votes
16%25 votes
11%18 votes

| 153 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  hr'd. concerned troll diary. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    check diarist's history.

    •  I did. Are you sure? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      I give in to sin

      In any event, this is way too simplistic:

      Missouri: Currently Democratic, will go Republican, even after going full Neanderthal, Akin's poll numbers didn't drop.  
      McCaskill will beat Akin, but there still is a chance it won't be Akin (he can drop out by 9/25 with soem hoops to jump through).

      I'm from the Elizabeth Warren Wing of the Democratic Party!

      by TomP on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 03:34:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  typical new troll bait-&-switch. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, RamblinDave, chrislefty, Catkin

        start with rational, non-partisan sounding diaries, lure in a group (preferably good-sized) then gradually slip in the rw talking points until s/he escalates to full-blown glenn beck indoctrination shit.

        track the diaries s/he has offered so far: a vague but pointed reference to how much prez obama has played golf & taken vacation days verses gwbush -- echoes rw whine about obama taking ANY time off from the nation's business: subliminal message = he should be focusing on jobs! -- wasn't that what he promised in 2008, etc., etc. (get the point?) . . .

        then we progress to the faux praise for france's (gasp!) socialist system, which provides plenty of glassy-eyed stats (now! s/he's got the audience's attention!) . . .

        let's move on to how we HAVE to surrender to paul ryan's medicare plan b/c gosh, golly, darn, we have NO alternative! -- & yes, i hr'd it & called bullshit on it, too . . .

        and now this "concern" for how many seats the greedy oil party needs to take the senate & how they'll more than likely do it -- in other words . . . let's forget all about asswipe todd aiken & the r's war on women convention platform -- let's talk about something else.

        classic kkkarl rove.  i call bullshit.  again.

        •  Lol paranoid much (0+ / 0-)

          The Obama time off diary was obviously to show that he hasn't taken much time off.

          Earlier diary entries: read the parable of taxes. Why tax cuts for the rich is a con job.  Or the parable of campaign finance - why the way we finance campaigns is the root of corruption.

          The diary on the Ryan voucher plan was far from an endorsement of it - Ryan is a clever little crook who is running a con job.  I evaluated it from a political, not a policy point of view - and the politics, much as I hate the policy, are clever.

          And somehow the "ZOMG! France! Socialism blog!" is evidence I'm a conservative? Huh?  Because I admire their far more comprehensive social safety net?

          Finally, I estimate that at most the GOP will add one seat in the Senate.  Why, I've gone full Glenn Beck.

          Your butthurt is astounding.  I guess if I'm not donning the rose colored glasses, if I point out that Ryan's plan is not only dangerous but smart politics, why I'm the enemy.

          You're the reason American politics is sadly turning in to an echo chamber.  You can't even take a look around without seeing your version of scary monsters under the bed.  You're the left's version of those tea partiers who see Commies at every turn.

          •  so, after posting this diary, you disappear (0+ / 0-)

            and finally decide you'll respond to commenters after . . . 6 fucking hours???

            gee, that's certainly responsible.

            why'd you post a diary in the first place if you didn't intend to answer any comments?

            seems like you those glenn beck seminars didn't teach you very much about trolling.

            or else you slept thru them.  like your diary.

            •  Uh, because like many people (0+ / 0-)

              I have a job. I work, I get home, I eat (too much). Then I relax, maybe write a diary entry. Then I maybe go to the pub, or something else to relax, maybe I sleep.  I don't hang around waiting to respond to comments in real time.

              Wow, your paranoia extends to someone posting a diary and not coming back for six hours. Bonus: when my diaries get reposted in Community Spotlight should I be around for that, too?  Otherwise I'm clearly some special evil monster, right?

              •  if you can't manage your schedule better (0+ / 0-)

                then you shouldn't post diaries until you are available to field questions/comments.  it's considered rude & bad form -- something you seem quite adept at.

                no, i don't consider you an evil monster, but somewhere along the line there was definitely neglect & mismanagement in your formation as a human being.

      •  Polls say no (0+ / 0-)

        Guess what?  People vote on party lines.

        If you don't believe that the partisan blinders are super-tight, check out the comments on this very blog entry.  Oh noes, I predict a gain of one Senate seat by the GOP, clearly I'm a right wing troll.

    •  Eh... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      I give in to sin

      I don't see anything in their history that warrants a HR.

      "It is never too late to be what you might have been." -- George Eliot

      by paulitics on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 03:47:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I disagree with all your projections where you (0+ / 0-)

    have or assume Dems will be defeated. Dems will gain at least 3 seats.

  •  Republicans will weep after the November election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, 207wickedgood

    and there will be many calls for civil war and revolution from the right. In states where there is voter suppression, more people will turn out. Then Dems better change the filibuster rule. After this election and the Dems win, teabagger type republican want win another presidential year election ever again. That's assuming Dems pass stringent penalties for suppressing or tampering with votes.

  •  As of now I'm flipping Missori and Mass., with the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Jan., 2013 #s being Democrats- 53 (incl. 2 independents)
    - Republicans 47.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 04:12:06 PM PDT

    •  By flipping I mean Missori Democratic, Mass. GOP. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Flipped from previous predictions.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 04:13:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mrs Warren got this. You have to include how the (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, 207wickedgood, chrislefty

        fear generated by this idiot Akins along with other lunatic Republicans, will effect the women vote.
        All once close states will go to the Democrats. Women will see to that. This stuff is being talked about among women in my family and others I know, who weren't known to be interested in politics.

  •  The Stig. Republican meat is rotten on day one and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    a much worse record, history of proven rotten meat. Our present meat seller president Obama, is offering a refrigerator. Sometimes someone comes along with very good intentions. We have no other choice right now than take the only chance we have. Life is a chance. Otherwise it's like judging all your past relationships on past ones. I took a good look at this one, and his intentions are different from many in the past. What else is there to do other than choose the one you think is better.That's the only choice we have right now. That both party thing leads to either not voting at all, or voting for spoilers who only run for the highest office every 4 years. Either start out locally and build a party, or don't run for president. It only serves to cause the defeat of one party over the other.

  •  I wasn't aware of any concern-troll history, (0+ / 0-)

    but this certainly gave me reason to wonder if the diarist  had any credibility:

    as Heitkamp has shown recent momentum and is closing the gap
    Heitkamp has led in every poll except a distorted one sponsored by the Republican-leaning Fargo Forum since the race began.  Closing the gap?  No, she's widening it.

    In ten years Obamacare will be as popular as Social Security and Medicare, and Mitt Romney will be demanding all the credit.

    by Fiddler On A Hot Tin Roof on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 04:40:55 PM PDT

  •  Uprated cuz of bogus hr's. n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David in NY
    •  why bogus? (0+ / 0-)

      i suggest you read the diarist's first 2 diaries & see what meme you think s/he's peddling.

      if it's not rw talking points (my opinion), it's advocating for a third party -- which is hr-worthy.  

      read the faq's.

      •  I followed your first suggestion, you know, (0+ / 0-)

        this one?

        hr'd. concerned troll diary

        check diarist's history.

        And I didn't see a history of trolling. Now you're narrowing it down to the first two diaries. Here's a suggestion for you. Don't ask others to run around proving your allegations. Post something specific, something obvious, not a theory.
        •  oh, so now it's a "theory" when a diarist (0+ / 0-)

          who has been here 6 wks or so posts rw talking points . . . like we better just get on board with privatizing medicare because there's no viable alternative -- ???

          i called bullshit the first time & i call bullshit again.  rules are rules & the diarist is a troll.

          btw, i did post specific examples.  you chose to ignore them b/c they didn't validate YOUR theory.

          •  You don't grasp it (0+ / 0-)

            I never advocated privatizing Medicare. I think its a terrible idea.  

            I also think its likely to come to pass, or end up as block grants.

            Can you not grasp that someone can think what will happen is different from what should happen?  Or are you only willing to take seriously people who tell you wonderful bedtime stories with happy endings?

            •  oh course you didn't advocate privatizing (0+ / 0-)

              medicare (rolls eyes).

              you just wrote a lengthy diary pointing out its inevitability.  and, hopefully, no one will notice the smoke & mirrors of the argument: that by insisting privatization is inevitable, it follows that it is a fait accompli.  see how easy it is?

              of course, there are a number of alternatives to privatization, all of which don't require reinventing the wheel, as you claim -- but why discuss those options when it's so much easier to convince people that it's an either-or choice with no options other than the ones you present?

              you sound bitter than i'm not going with the flow & accepting your false-choice proscription & you know what?  that's really too bad.

              it's your problem.  deal with it.

      •  Nope, not a third party guy (0+ / 0-)

        I'm a Democrat. Always have been.

        But keep that paranoia up.  

        I'm not peddling a particular meme.  I pointed out that France seems to get a whole lot more social services for a tax buden not that far off from ours.  Er, that puts me in right wing or conservative territory? Saying the way we raise campaign money corrupts politics is a rw point?  If you read the "meat" diary, its very clearly arguing against a third party solving anything.

        If you want to know something about me: I've been working on a diary explaining why we need a large, highly subsidized day care system.  To help working famlies, especially single parent families, to help get people off of public assistance, and to provide a couple of million jobs.  

        Yeah, what a right winger I am, straight outa Glenn Beck

        •  your very first diary ended with a paragraph (0+ / 0-)

          that smacked of third party advocacy.

          after a long, folksy stroll thru some imaginary town in america where everything sux & no one takes responsibility for the ills plaguing society & everyone points the finger at everyone else for what's wrong, you conclude that, gee, what are we to do?

          change political course?  say, "fuck the d's & the r's!"

          surrrrrre.  that's not advocating for a third party -- it's telling d's to vote for somebody other than a democrat, or better yet, stay home entirely on election day.

          like you say, yeah, you're a rw-er, straight outta glennbeckistan.

          •  No what I said was (0+ / 0-)

            That our campaign finance system was broken.  Obviously a third party is no fix to that. Not too bright, are ya?

            I also said that I wasn't prescribing answers, I wanted to start a discussion, but that my own solution was, hint: socialism.

            Which I thought was a pretty heavy hint that I like the idea of public financing of campaigns.

            You are such a bitter paranoid little thing.  How bad are things in your life, past or present, that you are so reactionary and angry and ready to believe the worst?  You really think I'm writing these diaries as some secret agenda to lure in the left, relax their minds, open them to accepting my suggestions, and then, POW, I hit them with the right wing zombie virus.

            Apart from the lack of conviction in your own beliefs - you think an open mind could make one capable of being seduce by nutty ideas - its just a really weird sick outlook.  I could smack you around for all of your projection all day - you call me a troll while doing nothing but, over and over, on each of my diaries.

            But as a human being, I think you're just in a difficult place.  Whatever is making you this paranoid and angry, whether its happening now or was some abuse in your past, seriously take a step back and see how its poisoning your outlook. Go on and call me a concern troll now, I know you have a handy meme to wield as a defense against any rational thought.

            None the less, your behavior is that of a sad, scared, angry person. I've had times I was that person.  It isn't fun.  Find a path to grow out of it.

    •  please remove your uprate or explain (0+ / 0-)

      why the hr's are bogus.

  •  Boy, (0+ / 0-)

    since when does being pessimistic make somebody a pariah?

    I'd say the diary is pretty much on the money, and anybody who, like someone above, thinks that the Dems will take three seats is due for a mental check-up.  

    This is gonna be very, very close.  

    Nate Silver's latest, off-the-cuff estimate says:

    The battle for control of the Senate looks like a tossup, just as it did in May. In fact, if I were given just one guess at the composition of the new Senate, I would go with this: 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and one independent, the former governor of Maine, Angus King.
    Nate is more pessimistic than the diarist.  So get real, guys.  Dreaming of wonderful victories will make people complacent.  If this is a wake-up for you, I hope you wake up.  Send money to Dems now -- they can all use it.  And of course volunteer.  Troll rating people is not useful, money and work are.
    •  fyi, i hr'd the diarist b/c s/he has a history (0+ / 0-)

      consistent with republishing rw talking points -- which you should take a few minutes to peruse before you start insinuating hr's have been given inappropriately.

      in the faq's it specifically states that persons posting rw talking points and/or advocating for a 3rd party should be hr'd.

      i suggest if you don't agree with the rules you take it up with markos, as it's his site -- not yours.

      btw, the diarist apparently has abandoned the diary.  so, s/he really doesn't give a fuck what you or i think.

      •  This is not a right wing talking point (0+ / 0-)

        this is reality.  I think you should get a grip and do something productive.  A few bucks to Claire McCaskill, Heidi Heitkamp, Elizabeth Warren (down a bunch in latest PPP), or Tammy Baldwin (falling back after Ryan pick), etc., might actually be something you should be doing.

        •  how do you know what i'm doing when it (0+ / 0-)

          comes to supporting candidates?  how do you know i'm not working with young voters or giving thousands of dollars??

          what arrogance!  and what are YOU doing?

          enjoy your little troll.  s/he'll be back.  with easy marks like you & some of her/his other fans, s/he's got a guaranteed audience.

          •  I know (0+ / 0-)

            you're wasting your time right now.   And as for arrogant, just read what you write.  

            I just came here because I was interested in what people thought about all the Senate races, a discussion that might have occurred, but that you cut off with your uber-policy-police attitude.  

            Sorry I ever bothered to read anything you said.  Grow up.

            •  jeeeezeluize. i don't give a fuck why you came (0+ / 0-)

              to read the diary.

              you suggested i do something worthwhile with my energy & i asked what YOU were doing with yours.

              i can see i'm dealing with someone who's reading comprehension challenged, so yeah, i AM wasting my time.

              bye now.  don't let the door hit ya in the ass.

      •  And you look like (0+ / 0-)

        one of those annoying commenters on a power trip, too.   Christ -- if it's not a toss-up for the Senate, maybe you've got the numbers to prove it -- if you can't be bothered actually to be giving support to candidates instead.

  •  Brown will win in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

    UNAmerican Chamber of Commerce  is pouring$$$$$ down the drain on a JOKE Republican.

    Why does Todd Akin opposes using the Federal Government to protect voting rights???

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