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7:57 AM PT: MI-11: The race for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's now-vacant House seat must be setting off Geiger counters, because it seems neither major party wants to touch the candidates they've nominated. I don't know what the D-Trip's beef with Syed Taj is, but he's notably been left off even their broadest lists (like "DCCC robocalls target 50 Republicans over Medicare" or what have you). Kerry Bentivolio, though, keeps turning even more toxic by the day:

On the first day of school last year, Kerry Bentivolio told students in his English class at Fowlerville High School that he had one goal: to make each one of them cry at least once.

Bentivolio, now the Republican candidate in Michigan's 11th Congressional District—which includes western Wayne and Oakland counties—also told the students that they were "just a paycheck to me," according to a description of incidents in his personnel file.

Much, much more at the link, including the fact that Bentivolio was reprimanded for "intimidating and threatening students by grabbing their desks and yelling in their faces or for slamming his fists on their desks" and then later claimed that the allegations were false and "politically motivated." The saga (which lasted throughout the school year) ended in June with Bentivolio's resignation under pressure. You'd think with a record like this, it'd be worth the Democrats' trouble to try to steal a win here, no? (h/t: RBH)

8:22 AM PT: IL-08: I hope there's more where this came from. I mean, who do you want defending you, even in backhanded fashion, more than Joe Walsh?

"What he said was offensive, insulting and wrong, but I'm bothered by this rush to pile on," Walsh said. "And I'm bothered by the silence of members of our own party to stand up for him."
But actually, I think I might like this quote from another Illinois Republican, Rep. Peter Roskam, even more:
"There's nobody who is saying Todd Akin is unworthy to serve," Roskam said. "There is no one saying he is immoral or incapable. He's not; he made a poor decision. The question is: Can he win in November? … This is an election about a generational change. If we squander this one opportunity we have, we will all look back and say: 'Oh, if only.' "
Roskam is flat-out admitting that the GOP doesn't care about Akin's beliefs, just whether he can win. Of course, we all knew this, but it's always revealing when the other side actually cops to pure expediency.

8:32 AM PT: MT-Sen: Rasmussen: Jon Tester (D-inc): 43 (47), Denny Rehberg (R): 47 (49).

8:43 AM PT: NY-11: The AFL-CIO just issued endorsements in 24 of  New York's 27 congressional races, but one omission really stands out: They're refusing to get behind Democrat Mark Murphy because a number of their member unions are supporting GOP freshman Mike Grimm. (All of their other endorsements have gone to Dems.) I'm sort of amazed anyone would want to stand with Grimm when his career stands at the precipice; indeed, the Grimm campaign's persecution fantasies have reached hallucinatory new heights, with de facto spokesman Guy Molinari accusing Chuck Schumer of "calling up" Eric Holder and asking him to sic the FBI on Grimm. Is this a guy labor really wants to see remain in office?

8:55 AM PT: AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally's new internal poll (from OnMessage) strikes me as nothing but awful news for her. If you just looked at the margin and saw that Dem Rep. Ron Barber leads her by five points, you might think she has a shot. The problem—and it's a serious one—is that Barber's at 50 and she's at 45. So even if this poll is accurate, how is she supposed to win with only 5% undecided and the incumbent already at 50? And if anything, these numbers are probably tilted toward here—there are no presidential toplines to offer a sanity check. The real tell will be whether the NRCC or other outside GOP groups spend here, but I suspect they can read a poll better than McSally can.

9:28 AM PT: WI-Sen: I like this new Tammy Baldwin ad a lot. The spot hammers Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson over his refusal to release his tax returns, using recent footage of Thompson barking "N-O" at reporters who dared to ask for them. EMILY's List is also running a new ad that also features clips of Thompson—and remarkably, they're from one of Thompson's own commercials! You may remember that ridiculous spot Thompson ran during the primary featuring his own bad self riding a motorcycle—well, that's exactly what EMILY uses, in portraying Thompson as a pol who "left Wisconsin" (on his chopper, natch) and went Washington. EMILY's ad is backed by a hefty $652K buy.


9:40 AM PT: IA-04: GOP Rep. Steve King is feeling the heat. A day after claiming he'd never heard of young victims of statutory rape or incest becoming pregnant, he's lashing out, saying: "I never said, nor do I believe, a woman, including minors, cannot get pregnant from rape, statutory rape or incest. Suggesting otherwise is ridiculous, shameful, disgusting and nothing but an attempt to falsely define who I am."

But King being King, he's landed himself in some more hot water. The trackers at at CREDO scored a nice bit of footage at a recent town hall King conducted. Here's a key excerpt:

King, who recently sponsored a bill to make English the national language, launched into an extended rant on the perils of multiculturalism—which was only reinforced by a visit to Iowa State University, where he says he encountered 59 different student groups rooted in the idea. Merlin's pants! As he put it, "It started with Asians and it ended with Zeitgeist. So from A to Z. And most of them were victims groups, victimology, people that feel sorry for themselves. And they're out there recruiting our young people to be part of the group that feels sorry for themselves."

10:04 AM PT: WI-Sen: PPP's new Wisconsin Senate poll has Republican Tommy Thompson up 49-44 over Democrat Tammy Baldwin. Back in early July, the race was tied at 45 apiece. Note that PPP switched from registered voters to likely voters in that timeframe.

10:16 AM PT: GA-12: Tuesday night's Republican runoff in Georgia's 12th Congressional District was ultra-tight, with state Rep. Lee Anderson edging businessman Rick Allen 50.3% to 49.7%, or just 154 votes. However, the final tally is not yet certified, and a recount is possible if the margin remains under 1%. Allen's campaign says that "all options are open." Dem Rep. John Barrow is obviously hoping for a bitter, protracted recount. (Meanwhile, in the GA-09 GOP runoff, state Rep. Doug Collins defeated radio host Martha Zoller 55-45.)

10:53 AM PT: MO-02: Just a thought: If Ann Wagner, the GOP nominee in Todd Akin's old 2nd District, were to swap places with Akin and let him run for his old seat while she took up the Senate mantle, Democrats would also have a shot at switching candidates in the 2nd, too. Right now, Some Dude Glenn Koenen looks to have the nomination (believe it or not, his Some Other Dude opponent is actually seeking a recount), but perhaps he could be persuaded to step aside for a stronger Democrat, like Rep. Russ Carnahan. Okay, I did say "stronger," so maybe former state Rep. Sam Page? This suburban/exurban district is quite conservative, though it got slightly less so in redistricting, becoming a 53-46 McCain seat (down from 55-44). Those 2008 Obama numbers are definitely a Democratic high-water mark, but with Akin running, anything would be possible.

10:58 AM PT: CT-Sen: Rasmussen: Chris Murphy (D): 46, Linda McMahon (R): 49.

11:09 AM PT: IN-Gov: LOVE this new ad from Democrat John Gregg ("the guy with two first names running for governor"), which features him down at "Carol's Clip 'n' Curl beauty shop" explaining that the women there "don't wanna hear anymore from Mike Pence." Hilariously, the customers are all having their hair dried under those giant, old-school blowers, so they can't hear a word Gregg says even when he yells at them, "Right, ladies?"—and then, later, "Right, MOM?" Gregg cites Pence's votes against equal pay for women and, interestingly, his vote to defund Planned Parenthood for breast cancer screenings, which is not necessarily the sort of message you'd expect to see in a state this red. Gregg stage whispers at the end, "They don't wanna hear about it again!" One of my favorite ads so far this cycle, no question.

11:19 AM PT: WI-Sen: And Marquette has Thompson up 50-41 over Baldwin. Contra PPP, which had Romney +1, they have Obama leading 49-46.

11:25 AM PT: RI-01: In his newest ad, Dem Rep. David Cicilline complains that we've spent "billions of dollars building roads, bridges, and more"—in Afghanistan and Iraq, instead of in the U.S., which is where he'd like to see us "start rebuilding."

11:54 AM PT: FL-26: The "Lamar" story just keeps getting crazier:

Fueled with $43,000 in secret money, Republican Rep. David Rivera helped run a shadow campaign that might have broken federal laws in last week's Democratic primary against his political nemesis Joe Garcia, according to campaign sources and finance records.

As part of the effort, a political unknown named Justin Lamar Sternad campaigned against Garcia by running a sophisticated mail campaign that Rivera helped orchestrate and fund, campaign vendors said.

Among the revelations: The mailers were often paid in envelopes stuffed with crisp hundred-dollar bills.

Rivera and Sternad have denied working together in his campaign, which ended Aug. 14. But Hugh Cochran, president of Campaign Data, told The Herald this week that Rivera contacted him in July and requested he create a list of voters who were ultimately targeted in the 11 mailers sent by Sternad's campaign.

"David hired me to run the data," said Cochran, who is a retired FBI agent.

Much, much more at the link. I suppose I shouldn't be amazed that Rivera would try something so manifestly corrupt, given what a scumbag he is. But given all the ethical scrutiny he's been under, you'd think he'd at least try to avoid any more shadiness for a little while. It's remarkable that he just can't stop himself.

12:04 PM PT: NY-27: Some nice work by Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul: She responded to a new negative ad from Republican Chris Collins so quickly that Collins hadn't even blasted the spot out to his full press list yet. The ad is actually a compare-and-contrast, with Collins taking credit for creating jobs while deploying generic attacks against Hochul. But Hochul was able to slam Collins because, after buying a plate manufacturing plant in upstate New York back in 2004, he "cut the work force by a third, reduced wages and benefits and ousted the union," according to a news report at the time.

12:13 PM PT: MT-Gov: A DGA front group called Montana Jobs, Education and Technology PAC (JET PAC, har har) is out with a new ad slamming Republican ex-Rep. Rick Hill as a lobbyist, DC insider, and insurance industry exec—an encapsulation of all the reasons that make him "wrong for Montana." No word on the size of the buy, but the DGA recently seeded JET PAC's coffers with half a million bucks.

12:31 PM PT: IN-02: In a new TV ad, A fellow soldier of Democrat Brendan Mullen, an Iraq vet, praises his courage and excoriates Republican Jackie Walorski for "smearing" Mullen, calling her "downright un-American." It's a response to this new, cheaply-produced Walorski spot which attacks Mullen as a "DC insider" who was recruited by "liberals."

12:31 PM PT (David Jarman): WI-Sen: The first two polls of Wisconsin's Senate race after last week's primary have Republican Tommy Thompson with a significant lead over Dem Tammy Baldwin. PPP has Thompson up by 5, while Marquette has Thompson up by 9. (And that's despite very different presidential toplines in the two polls.) Click through for our full analysis.

12:41 PM PT: Maps: Here's a terrifying animated map of the growth of Walmart (and their kid cousin, Sam's Club), from 1970 to present. If you zoom in on the New York City area, you'll see that we are still Walmart-free, though the company has long been trying to break in here.

1:34 PM PT: MT-Sen: The DSCC's second Montana ad uses a notorious clip of wealthy GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg saying his family's been "struggling like everyone else" as a hook to attacking him for voting to raise his own pay five times, and voting against a minimum wage increase 10 times. (According to his personal financial disclosure forms, Rehberg's net worth is likely into the eight figures.)

1:40 PM PT: AFP: The Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity says it's launching a round of ads in five different Senate races worth $2.7 million in total. Their spot attacking Democrat Tammy Baldwin is available at the link; the actors they found to read their boring "stop wasteful spending" script are comically stiff and inauthentic. Their ads against Tim Kaine and Shelley Berkley are very similar. The airwaves in Indiana and New Mexico are reportedly the next two lucky victims.

1:45 PM PT: IL-12: The pro-Republican New Prosperity Foundation, which had spent money attacking pretty much every Democrat in a competitive House race in Illinois, has finally targeted the one guy they'd previously left untouched, retired Maj. Gen. Bill Enyart. They're hitting him with $61K in TV ads.

2:17 PM PT: AZ-09: With the primary less than a week away, EMILY's List is coming in with a tiny, last-minute TV buy for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. They actually spent more on production costs—$17K—than on broadcasting it (just $14K). Considering that the ad, a generic positive spot, uses nothing but still photos and title cards that look like they were generated in WordPad, I don't really understand why it cost so much, either.

In other primary news, Sinema—for the first time publicly, I believe—is accusing opponent Andrei Cherny of engaging in a whisper-type smear campaign regarding her sexuality. (Sinema is bisexual.) Sinema, however, didn't offer anything in the way of proof or corroboration, and Cherny denies the allegations. On a more meta level, I have to wonder why she'd bring something like this up so late in the game, espcially given its potential to backfire. (Lots of Cherny supporters rushed to his defense over the charges.) Does it mean the race is tight?

3:05 PM PT: MI-01, NC-07: The DCCC just filed small re-ups of its first two ads, for $31K and $36K in MI-01 and NC-07, respectively. That roughly doubles their buy in each district.

3:08 PM PT: NV-Sen: The conservative American Future Fund's new ad hits Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley on a familiar theme, ethical issues regarding the kidney transplant center she saved.

3:12 PM PT: AFF also has another spot going after Heidi Heitkamp for supporting Obamacare. Politico sez the Nevada buy is for $472K, North Dakota for $163K.

3:19 PM PT: PA-12: The pro-Dem House Majority PAC's new ad targets "millionaire Wall Street lawyer Keith Rothfus" because he "represented a Wall Street bank that received a bailout from taxpayers." HMP doesn't appear to have filed an IE report yet, though.

3:31 PM PT: IA-04: The American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons (no, I have no idea why they go for the treasonous British spelling) is making their first foray into the independent expenditure world this cycle, with $50K worth of radio ads on behalf of GOP Rep. Tom Latham. Latham is locked in an incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle with Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell, and before entering politics he was a businessman, so it's not clear why a bunch of orthopedists are interested in him. Indeed, they didn't make any IEs at all last cycle, so it's hard to say what their proclivities are.

3:42 PM PT: AZ-06: National Horizon really seems to enjoy tweaking GOP Rep. Ben Quayle in exactly the way you'd want to, too, if you had your own super PAC. Their latest ad mocks him as a "lightweight" for repeatedly mis-stating the size of the annual federal budget, then finishes with a flourish that any fans of his Quayle's pops will surely enjoy. Quayle's buddies are also helping him out, though: Friends of the Majority is throwing in another $230K on ads attacking his primary opponent, Rep. David Schweikert. All told, the group has spent almost $600K on his behalf.

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Comment Preferences

  •  IN-Gov: I'm loving these ads! Gregg's 2nd ad (13+ / 0-)

    hits Pence for voting to defund Planned Parenthood (talking specifically about cancer screenings) and his vote against the equal pay for equal work.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:46:51 AM PDT

    •  i like that ad too! (3+ / 0-)

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:54:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Scott McAdams had great ads in 2010... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Maybe Gregg is well enough known in Indiana because what I don't get as an outsider looking in is how these ads are supposed to convince me Mr. Gregg is governor material.  Maybe this is just the cutesy (re-)introduction and he might get down to the brass tax after labor day but I think he needs to look the part a bit more and talk about jobs and taxes and quality of life issues that Hoosiers are worried about.   I think he needs to paint Pence as a hyper partisan bomb thrower with higher office ambitions who wants to use the Governors mansion as a stepping stone so all his decisions will be with his national reputation in mind, and frame himself as a bi-partisan consensus finder who is only worried about Indiana.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:20:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Serriously, what do you think Gregg is doing? (4+ / 0-)

        You keep bashing campaigns for rather trivial matters of perspective; I'm not sure how hyper and over the top a campaign's response would have to be to satisfy you.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:15:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  honestly, I hated this ad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hopefully Indiana thinks differently.  Loved the two Wisconsin ads against Thompson, though.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:25:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Love his unique ads. (3+ / 0-)

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:25:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  No Wyoming Liveblog? (3+ / 0-)

    I am ashamed at how quickly DKE has fallen apart at the seams. We didn't even get a liveblog of Wyoming last night, how shabby. I'm disappointed in you, David. >:(

    Lol I didn't even realize the Georgia runoffs were last night until I saw an article about it on Roll Call. #doingitwrong

    "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:08:42 AM PDT

  •  RI-01: Cicilline ad (via e-mail) (6+ / 0-)

    Cicilline campaign is out with a new positive ad.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:21:08 AM PDT

  •  Marquette law releasing WI results (6+ / 0-)

    at 12.15pm (I presume that is Central Time).

    Can be followed on their Twitter feed

    Their last poll was just a couple of weeks ago, pre-Ryan, and showed Obama +5. Will they confirm the Ryan bounce found by PPP?

    h/t to DCCyclone.

  •  Outlier ALERT! Just when I thought... (12+ / 0-)

    It was OK to take Survey USA seriously again, they pull this shit. Sorry, but there's no way in hell that Romney is nearly tying Obama among Latinos AND nearly tying Obama in Clark County. Ralston just said it on Twitter, and I'll say it here: This "poll" is pure junk, and I frankly don't care to see what else is in it.

    Why on earth did The R-J dump an actual local outfit (UNLV's polling center) for this?

    •  Especially since (8+ / 0-)

      Latinos are around 2:1 Dem nationally, including Florida and Texas, where they skew more Republican than that, so I'd expect R's to be doing slightly worse among them in Nevada.

    •  still, look on the bright side (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      Obama remains ahead overall even despite Romney wiping out the 54% advantage Obama held among Latinos in 2008 in NV. On the slight offchance that SUSA are wrong on this Obama could actually be ahead by double digits.

    •  It's a pretty Republican sample, too (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, ArkDem14, askew

      I definitely don't see this as legit.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:47:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama up only 8 with the 18-34 Demo (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:36:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hasnt even SUSA expressed doubt about (0+ / 0-)

      the poll? At least the Hispanic numbers.

      •  let's face it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        a polling organisation that wants to carry on getting work is not very likely to criticise its own findings. In my experience they always report their results with a straight face as if it's God's own truth even when they must know they have a turkey on their hands. And this case is no exception. Nothing here but straight-faced summary of the main findings.

        •  I'm referring to this from the LVRJ write up (7+ / 0-)

          link

          a result even the pollster questioned. In June, a Latino Decisions poll showed Obama leading Romney among Hispanics, 69 percent to 20 percent.

          "We were surprised by the Hispanic result, too," Leve said, adding it's difficult to accurately survey Latinos. "It raised some eyebrows, but that is a snapshot and that is what we see."

          I think I made a mistake. "Expressed doubt" isnt the same a "questioned." You are right, they are standing by their work though. I didnt meant to suggest otherwise.

          •  oh ok (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, MichaelNY

            I was going by the official write-up on their site, which is much more po-faced. Yes, I agree. In pollsterspeak "we were surprised by the result" is roughly equivalent to "we probably f***ed up." It's like a real estate agent describing a property as "having great potential".

            He he. He probably thought he was talking off the record.

          •  See my comment above re SUSA methodology...... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They don't weight their polls by race or party or geography or anything else at all.  And that's by design, they deliberately choose not to weight and they just hope their polls come out OK anyway.

            It's not a completely irrational policy for a public pollster, because weighting itself constitutes a kind of bias, even if one that seeks accuracy.

            But the flipside is that you sometimes get disastrous bad polls, like all of SUSA's VA-05 polls in 2010.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:35:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, the tie with latinos is not credible (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:26:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, and now I learn Ralston... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, askew, MichaelNY

      ...is blocking me on Twitter.

      The only thing that comes to mind as a possible reason is I disagreed w/him & Dave Catanese on whether the kidney center "scandal" was hurting Berkley.  I found and double-checked the Twitter exchange I had with  them, and I said nothing personal or otherwise offensive, every tweet was an argument about the Senate race itself.

      I'm noticing journos are increasingly sensitive to any disagreement with their stories or commentary.  Not just to insults and other obvious offenses, but any criticism at all.

      This one was truly bizarre, because I tweeted nothing that could be construed as criticism of Ralston, only disagreement on whether Berkley was hurt with voters.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:29:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a shame. (0+ / 0-)

        I thought Ralston was better than that. :(

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:52:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Really, I'm extremely surprised by this one (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          I got blocked by Jake Tapper last year after a tweet that just came off wrong.  I meant something as an inncoent question, he blocked me, and later I took a 2nd look and realized it could've been read as more confrontational than what I meant......a product of my struggling to get my question into 140 characters and not reading my own words carefully before sending.

          I got blocked by Larry Sabato and to this day have no idea why, because I never criticized him or his work.

          And I got blocked by Jonathan Martin earlier this month for criticizing his work on a Politico story that frankly got a helluva lot of online criticism from many quarters.

          This one is the most bizarre yet, although since I don't know why Sabato blocked me, I can't be sure it's any more bizarre than that.  My first tweet was simply that the media including Ralston were getting it wrong that voters saw her poorly because of any "scandal," and then I went on to list the merits of my argument why the "scandal" wasn't one at all.

          Like I said, some journos are getting pretty hypersensitive.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:17:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am followed by Jonathan Martin (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            of Politico and I am unsure why, considering I don't tweet all that often.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:19:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I am followed by Maeve Reston of... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              ...the Los Angeles Times, I assume because I very shortly beforehand tweeted a compliment of LAT's political writing to her colleagues that she presumably saw (I don't recall including her in the tweet).  LAT really is good, like NBC's team on TV they often have a smart grip on things that much of the print media does not.

              I also was followed early on by Politico's Mike Allen, I think because he follows everyone on the planet.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:29:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  TS Isaac might impact RNC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    Starting to look more likely now, but still a bit too early to tell.

    5 Day track is here:  http://www.wunderground.com/...

    It will become a hurricane soon.

  •  Akin is still in big time trouble... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, MichaelNY

    he was fundraising online with a goal of $10,000 and seemed to be having trouble getting it.  

    I don't think there is any way he stays in if the GOP have successfully shut off his funding capabilities.  

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:46:26 AM PDT

    •  At what point do you think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      it's okay to feel good about this?

      Obviously, September 25 is the real deadline, but if he decides to call it quites on, say, September 13, will you feel any better? That's about six weeks until election day, and while the GOP is surely mulling over its options and has a few candidates in mind, that's an awfully short period of time to put together a campaign. Perhaps someone like Emerson could do it, but even then, that's pushing it.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:43:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know if I'll feel good about it... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, lordpet8, DCCyclone, jncca, MichaelNY

        Until I know for sure the GOP isn't going to be able to parachute a candidate in to replace Akin. I'm old enough to remember the Arnie Carlson win in the Minnesota governor's race in 1990, where he replaced a scandal-ridden Republican nominee at the last minute and was still able to win thanks to the unpopularity of the incumbent (Rudy Perpich)

        •  That's (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, jncca, MichaelNY

          That's how I feel about NJ-Sen 2002!

          Language professors HATE me!

          by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:04:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Fair enough, but who might replace him? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Steelman and Brunner come to mind, if only because they just lost to him in the primary, but they don't have nearly the network that Akin has as a House member. None of those guys have the network that Emerson has, but will she do it? She's still running for the House now, after all.

          Who else might do it?

          I guess I'm thinking there's a neat little correlation between September 25 and the necessary strength of the candidate necessary to still win. After a certain point, I think it's safe to say only someone like Danforth could work for them.

          Remind me, is an Independent and/or write-in candidacy possible?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:10:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're not taking into account (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            How unpopular McCaskill is right now. Networks don't matter. I'm not saying McCaskill is doomed, and you're absolutely right, the later the Repubs get a new candidate, the better off she'll be, but if the Republicans get another candidate on the ballot before Sept. 25th, I think she'll have an uphill climb.

            But Akin is a stubborn man, and unlike some people, I think he's a sure loser right now. So let's hope his stubbornness  continues.

            •  Agree (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, MichaelNY

              Akin is a sure loser. I see no way that he holds on to win McCaskill is unpopular, but he's radioactive.
              But if the GOP gets someone on the ballot in September, you can bet that it will be someone reasonably seasoned or with a minimum of controversy. Kit Bond would be best, though my preference would be for Ann Wagner. I think if they are able to pull that off, the GOP wins the seat. Someone in McCaskill's group should be doing oppo reserach on possible opponents and get ready to dump some negative adds fast because she won't have much time. Of course, if it's someone like Bond with high name rec, that won't do any good.

              Language professors HATE me!

              by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:23:38 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Bond never won by very much (0+ / 0-)

                He was always given pretty steep challenges.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:37:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Bond will beat McCaskill unless... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

                  ...his heart just isn't in it, and he proves a terrible candidate and runs a terrible campaign as a result.  And he still might win anyway.  But I can't imagine he'd agree to do it as any kind of "sacrifice," if he does it he'll mean business.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:38:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  it'd take a pretty big reversal for Bond (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                    to come back... as his retirement speech spoke of not wanting to be Missouri's oldest Senator.

                    I'd imagine 70+yo guys like himself prefer not having to work every day instead of being through into this race and being put in office until they turn 79

                    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                    by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:59:02 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Am I confusing Emerson and Wagner? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Anyway, to be sure, McCaskill's problems limit her ceiling, and if Akin is replaced, do help the Republican pick gain more traction. But what has happened now has thrown this entire race into limbo. In addition to focusing the discussion on abortion instead of the economy, McCaskill herself, or Obama, or something else even, it's preventing Akin or someone that might take his place from doing the things he or she needs to do in order to win. I mean, how can one staff a campaign office when one isn't sure if the candidate now running will still be running in a few weeks?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:41:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Emerson and Wagner (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Both have been listed as possible replacements, but I prefer Wagner myself.

                  Language professors HATE me!

                  by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:52:43 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Emerson's plus is that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  she's married to a Dem who has connections with traditionally Dem groups (labor) and has always gotten a lot of crossover support from Dems in her district. The minus is that she's not particularly known outside of the markets covering her district.

                  But I believe you were confusing Wagner and Emerson.

                  The logistics say that the only candidates not starting at 0 if picked to replace Akin are Brunner, Steelman, and the R Congressional candidates. But having to manufacture a statewide campaign in under 2 months is asking a lot.

                  The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                  by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:54:52 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No, I don't think he's confusing the two (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Zornorph

                    Sure, Emerson would probably be the stronger candidate for the reasons you and others mentioned, but Wagner is easily stronger than the three stooges who originally ran in the Republican primary.  Wagner has the ability to be deeply entrenched into the national Republican fundraising/support network through her RNC connections and is currently a shoe-in for the new MO-02.

                    Before this weekend, each of the 3 Republicans polled as Generic R and were Tossup/Tilt R to Lean R against McCaskill, which is where I think Wagner would start out.  Her advantage, or Emerson's, would stem from being able to count on not only national establishment support, but also appear viable to local players.  As an observer from afar this seemed to be one of Brunner and Steelman's weaknesses (among others) compared to the potential1st tier candidates.

                    All in all, I don't think McCaskill was ever DOA a la Harry Reid in 2009/early 2010, but she's certainly in Michael Bennet's position, but where being mildly unpopular is counterbalanced by being in a redder state.  I can easily see Akin's floor being 40% or even 45%, but his ceiling isn't that much higher meaning his path to victory were he to stay in the race is extremely limited.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                    by sawolf on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:27:46 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  That's what I am saying. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    In the words of Ralph Wiggum, I don't think it's unpossible for McCaskill to lose, but even with her unpopularity, time is running out for them to strike effectively.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:51:45 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  This continues the strange pattern... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, MichaelNY

                ...of GOPers being convinced their own nominee is doomed, while Dems are worried he's not.

                Is everyone really jumping at their own shadow like that?

                I think the GOPers are right, if for no other reason because their attack on Akin has made his certain doom a self-fulfilling prophecy.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:19:20 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  at this point (0+ / 0-)

                  Claire should probably go at least 50% positive. Fortify the reasons to vote FOR her, because reasons to vote AGAINST her opponent may go up in smoke if they go too hard.

                  Pick a few positive issues or initiatives and push them hard.

                  But if Akin sticks past 9/25, he will be hindered with resources and a lack of help from other campaigns, so they can pile on a bit around 9/26 or so

                  The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                  by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:24:27 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I agree, (0+ / 0-)

                    This is in a lot of ways an indirect appeal to not vote for that crazy fucker, more so than it usually is.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:28:02 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  The problem is... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      HoosierD42, MichaelNY

                      ...Harry Reid tried that and failed.  He did several separate rounds of positive ads in fall 2009 and early 2010, to no avail as they didn't budge his numbers.  I thought his ads were good, too, but Nevada voters were unmoved.

                      When people strongly and consistently dislike an incumbent, they know why, and there's usually no way to talk them out of it except for events or governance itself to change.  Missouri voters don't like Obama or national Democrats, and McCaskill is tied at the hip to both by her own choice.  Missouri voters don't like some of the things Democrats have done legislatively in the Obama years, and McCaskill supported every single one of those things wholeheartedly.  Ads can't fix her image after that, especially not in 75 days.

                      I guess some soft positive spots at least won't hurt, and would keep her visible while Akin is largely invisible except to keep putting his foot in his mouth (which I expect he'll do).  But I don't think it gets her to where she's staking out a lead.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:35:02 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  perhaps I'm a bit shaped by 2010 (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        when Robin Carnahan's campaign went pure negative into late-September, and then switched to positive ads when nobody cared anymore.

                        But there has to be some insurance to not just blow Akin out of the race. Akin's fundraising is not going to be sufficient to continue (24K a day for a Senate race is not exactly daunting).

                        Reid and Claire are a bit different since nobody thought Angle would just drop out. But Akin is a different case.

                        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                        by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:42:42 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  There were some great positive spots (4+ / 0-)

                        for Reid. The best one didn't even come from his camp, but instead from VoteVets. But I get your point: that McCaskill will need to make her opponent an unacceptable alternative.

            •  I just think she has a slightly higher floor (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              than a lot of people here do. If it's 45 percent, that's not a terrible position to be in. Obviously, it's better to be ahead, by a lot if possible, but floors matter, too.

              And networks definitely do matter. The best candidate(s) for the Republicans likely has/have the best support systems--volunteers, an established connection to voters, support from those higher ups in the party, and so on--but even that becomes less and less valuable for a new candidate as election day approaches, particularly McCaskill's probably got her base more solidly behind her than any time in this race, if only because she's Not Akin.

              This isn't to say it is the only thing that matters, because it certainly isn't. But I think you are understating by large degree how much this stuff matters. If it wasn't that important, it wouldn't be such a priority for them to get Akin out as soon as possible.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:38:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do we know if there are any... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Independent or third-party candidates who will be on the ballot?

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:54:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  One Libertarian (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Jonathan Dine, who ran in 2010 and won 3%

                  No Independents, to my knowledge

                  The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                  by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:59:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If Rep. Akin doesn't get his name off the ballot.. (0+ / 0-)

                    I'd fully expect to see Dine pull 10% of the vote or more.

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:01:45 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  nah (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Dine would top 5% (Dine and Constitution Party Candidate Jerry Beck combined for 5% in 2010), but 10% would be historic for a 3rd party candidate who isn't Ross Perot in MO

                      The Libertarian record is 6.2% for Janet Lewis, who ran for Treasurer in 1992. Bob Holden won 56.55-37.26 that year.

                      Dine should be able to challenge 6.2%, but not 10%.

                      I'd imagine that the numbers would be around McCaskill +5 right now. Unless one is a devotee of PPP's R-friendly likely voter model.

                      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                      by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:06:03 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  That was a snap poll (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        As for Dine, this is an unusual situation where both the incumbent and the challenger are nearly toxic. Dine could actually emerge as a credible third-party candidate under the right circumstances.

                        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:26:11 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  part of that is a snap poll (0+ / 0-)

                          but PPP's LVM is showing R-friendly samples in virtually every single case, except maybe Virginia, which didn't have a statewide election in 2010.

                          I think if the LVMs rely on the voter being likely because they voted in 2010 and unlikely if they didn't, then a lot of D voters are gonna get ignored by the LVM.

                          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                          by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:00:41 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

              •  Oh it matters, I just don't think... (0+ / 0-)

                It's as definitive as you suggest.

      •  Election Night If McCaskill Wins.... (0+ / 0-)

        Until then it's just inside baseball that will have little bearing on public opinion in 10 weeks.

  •  Roskam revealed the GOP's thinking on this (15+ / 0-)

    It's about rather or not Akin can win, not how absurd his comments were. Had he been a candidate in Oklahoma or somewhere else very safe for Republicans, they would not have piled on him like this.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:49:17 AM PDT

    •  That and... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      How much piling on Akin could help them with their own races (e.g. Scott Brown)

    •  Could IL-6 be a sleeper race? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      Roskam was one of only a few Republicans that were given Republican vote-sinks as a result of Illinois's redistricting, which I've dubbed the "Madiganmander".

      There is a Democrat running against Roskam this cycle: her name is Leslie Coolidge.

      I have that race as Safe R, given the fact that Coolidge doesn't appear to be running a campaign.

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:43:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nope, it's safe R (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, jncca

        One of the few districts like that in Illinois.

        •  Still voted for Obama (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the area is still trending Democratic too.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:38:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  IL-6 appears to be not in play in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf

            Later in the decade, that is a district that could become a swing district. Obama drastically overperformed normal Democratic baselines in the northern third of Illinois.

            Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:56:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  It's ancestrally Republican (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, jncca, MichaelNY

            and Obama's home state effect was extremely strong in Chicagoland. So a 51% Obama district in the collar counties is a flat-out red district. Yes, it's trending Democratic, but it will be a long time before it is competitive. By comparison with the old IL-06 and nearby districts, Dubya probably won it by 20 points both times.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:00:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm about to calculate Illinois for my (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              political geography series, but I'm betting that his home state effect was A) limited largely to Chicagoland and B) relatively large in the suburbs due to that.  When you couple that with him overperforming in R leaning suburban areas as a trend nationwide, this district could potentially be something like R+8 if you were to use a "partisan propensity index" type of measurement.  It isn't the sort of district where a Democrat beats even a moderately controversial Republican (Bachmann in 2008).  While they may have been able to strengthen certain Dem districts, IL Democrats certainly knew what constituted a vote sink when they drew their gerrymander.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:31:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Please vote up Montana in PPP's pollitopia (5+ / 0-)

    otherwise South Carolina or Minnesota will come in 3rd, and really, what is to be gained from polling either of those?

    Iowa and Nevada are easily in 1st and 2nd.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

  •  OT: messed up display (0+ / 0-)

    Whenever I load a comment page, it's set up so that if I try to post anything it loads a new page and hides all the other comments, if I click on the "+" listing it loads a new page, and there is also a "rate all" button that just redirects to the front page of the site. Is there any way to get rid of this and put the comment page back in normal mode?

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:26:59 AM PDT

  •  Might it be the season (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8, askew

    to start splitting the live digests? The comment threads are getting a bit unwieldy (on my $175 computer, at least).

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition."

    by gabjoh on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:29:07 AM PDT

  •  Here's a Scotty special (11+ / 0-)

    McMahon 49 Murphy 46.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    How many Inouye points is that?

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:31:48 AM PDT

    •  I don't take RCP, Nate Silver seriously anymore (5+ / 0-)

      With their inclusion of idiotic Rasmussen polls/MI/FL polls done by that one group, with the FL one showing Romney +15, and apparently 90% of the electorate will be 50 and over. Nate twisted himself into knots defending including it. Even conservative RCP ignored it.

      As a member of the NYT, Nate Silver is now officially invested in making the election seem as close as possible. I won't be paying attention until a week or two before the election when reputations are on the line.

      •  I was also dismayed by Nate Silver's decision (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        markhanna, MichaelNY

        on that pollster but I still think his analysis is a country mile better than anyone else's I've come across. And maybe I'm naive but I do really think he makes his own calls and is not following a NYT party line which says the election has to be rated a cliffhanger. For one thing his 538 column has consistently rated the election as leaning to Obama even while the NYT's "official" race ratings show it hung.

      •  he gave it a huge house effect though (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It really didn't change his overall projection much.  The MI poll, when adjusted for House effect, ended up at Obama up by 7.  That's not too far off from reality.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:35:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah although it does annoy me they show at all (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          even with all his caveats. Their FL poll appears on the table of "scientific" August state polls he has in his latest 538, boosting Romney's numbers by 1.

          Their polling is about as "scientific" as throwing suspected witches in the water to see if they float.

    •  I'm a bit worried (2+ / 0-)

      about CT-Sen.  I live here, and all I have seen is Linda, Linda, Linda everywhere.  And while people might have been disgusted with her last time, I don't think it's safe to assume that this is a Safe D seat by any means...

      I haven't seen anything from Murphy - I don't really watch TV.  But Linda has come up on my Pandora, internet, various other apps - she is literally blasting herself on every media.  And it's very positive stuff, if I didn't know better I might believe it.

      I know it's easy to write off Ras... but the last 3 polls were Murphy +3 (Quinnipiac), Murphy +8 (PPP), and now Ras with Linda +3.  That is not confidence inspiring, for sure...

    •  She's self-funded $15M already this cycle (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      after spending $50M in 2010.  Murphy had about $6M COH at the end of the Q2 but had a primary to still run.  I assume he'll wait until after labor day - but he's going to get flooded by attack ads, and will probably be outspent 5-to-1.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:04:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Murphy needs help, then Majority PAC and the DSCC could parachute a couple of million here.

        Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

        by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:18:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Keep in mind that... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        She spent $97 per vote in 2010 just to lose.  That's even worse than Meg Whitman in California.

        For reference, in 2008 IIRC Obama spent $9 per vote and McCain spent $5 per vote.

        McMahon's money might get her a respectable floor of say, 43%, her ceiling is almost certainly less than 50% of the two party vote against a perfectly-acceptable-to-moderates such as Chris Murphy.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:36:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      I think this may end up being a big surprise. CT and AZ could be sleeper races. Her ads are very good and thus far Murphy has been a weaker candidate than expected. Also, Obama does not have the kind of coattails he had in 2008. I think she could steal it.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:24:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Um, no (5+ / 0-)

        Rasmussen is junk, they are a throwaway always.

        Murphy hasn't been weak at all, I don't know where you get that idea.  He's hummed along just fine.

        And McMahon is going to lose by double-digits unless a late anti-Obama wave develops nationally, which would require some unforeseeable Lehman-type event.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:43:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not just Ras (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Not to be a concern troll.... but PPP and Qunninipiac had the race within single digits.

          So the 3 polls since May would indicate a slight lean to Murphy - but no double digit blow out.  Linda's ads have been very good at trying to re-define her...

          Murphy will win but we might need to spend resources here that would be useful elsewhere.

          •  PPP and Q said same in 2010, and... (0+ / 0-)

            ...they were wrong, McMahon was never in striking distance of Blumenthal.  Same with Rasmussen in that race.

            So the same three pollsters fucked up the polling in CT-Sen then, and they're producing similar eye-rollers now in the same state's Senate race involving the same Republican nominee.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:36:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Scotty really has balls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      zyangunc, MichaelNY

      Putting her at 49%. The reality is most people probably don't know that much about Murphy yet. If Murphy loses in Ct then Obama will lose 40 states.

    •  I literally laughed out loud when I saw that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bjssp, MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:07:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  their net worths: (3+ / 0-)

      McMahon, Murphy at ends of wealth spectrum

      from the danbury news times:

      Linda McMahon would likely be the wealthiest U.S. senator if she wins the Republican nomination in the Aug. 14 primary and then goes on to win the Nov. 6 general election, Senate records show. The average net worth of McMahon and her husband, Vince, stands at $238 million.

      Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., the current leader in the Senate wealth derby, had an average net worth of about $232 million in 2010, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

      In contrast, the leading Democrat seeking his party's nomination, Rep. Chris Murphy, reports a negative net worth of $367,000. Right now, the sitting senator with the lowest net worth is Deborah Stabenow, D-Mich., with a negative $32,500.

      i can't imagine a more stark contrast between two candidates.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:13:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney/Ryan going to some blue-leaning (3+ / 0-)

    states the next couple of days. Tomorrow, Romney giving a speech on energy in NM. And Friday, it's Romney and Ryan together again in MI. Wonder if they see some movement in these states, or they feel like it's one of the last chances to push them before the conventions.

    •  Those would probably be the next two (3+ / 0-)

      states to look into after Wisconsin for Romney/Ryan and given the Romney campaign will have $200M+ to spend in September and October and the Crossroads and AFP will have combined around $300M to spend in the last two months,  I think it's safe to assume they'll be looking for ways to expand their map if for no other reason that they need to spend their money somewhere.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:39:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's a question for you and the group: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Is Romney at all close to being tapped out? He's got a cash advantage now, and he did seem to be picking up a bit with small money donors, but is his base as broad as Obama's?

        We are still in August, and Obama's fund raising could be picking up whether or not Romney's is strong. Of course, Romney's could also be slowing down--his personal fund raising--I mean--but that much is far from clear.

        What about September? In 2008, that's when Obama had his biggest month, $150 million, more than double August's $66 million. Part of that was the $10 million that he raised in the 24 hours following Palin's acceptance speech, which I had mistakenly assumed was raised the day following McCain's announcement that she was picked. It's hard to know what to compare this to, since McCain was on public financing at this point (I am pretty sure, at least; but if we have a huge month, and Romney doesn't just blow past us the gap is narrowed. And if we surpass him by a solid amount, the gap might be eliminated.

        I also wonder just how much the gap is effectively eliminated by the work we did in 2008. Ads are probably more expensive than infrastructure, unless a campaign is starting from scratch, but if they have to spend more to build up their GOTV efforts in various states compared to what we have to spend, which I suspect is the case, then the gap isn't as bad as it seems.

        Just a few things to think about...

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:57:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see Romney slowing down... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Midwesterners, MichaelNY

          He might be running out of millionaire donors willing to donate $70K each (or $140K per couple) but I think choosing Ryan will see his small donor base become more activated.  

          I think Pres Obama is good for $75M in each of August, September and October.  I think Romney could match that easily.  The Obama 2008 donor base just isn't coming back.  The big donors are sitting out - and there is something like 500,000 2008 donors who have not donated in 2012 yet (by my figuring given the announcements of new donors this cycle compared to total number of donors in 2008).  

          And I think the Koch's could easily go in for another $100M without the blink if an eye if they see a real path for Romney/Ryan.  I mean I read they each have billions in liquid assets, if not outright cash, at their instant disposal.  

          An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:11:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But that's not just Romney's money, right? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, MichaelNY

            Isn't that also RNC money? Surely a lot of it will be spent on the presidential race, if possible, which I bet it is.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:13:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, I was wondering about that too (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              if you make a comparison between just the campaigns, Obama does have more COH, 87 million to 30 million.

              •  What's the trend in spending (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                when it comes to combined money? I am just not sure.

                Given the totality of fund raising, it's not as the distinction is that important, especially if outside groups can do GOTV stuff. But still, if you don't control the money, you can't get a say in how it is spent. It's certainly possible for them to see what outside groups are doing, but something is indeed lost when there's no direct cohesion.

                Also, just how many people are really going to be donating $140,000 each, or $70,000 per person? That's a lot of money, even for a very rich person, and there just aren't that many people in the country in total that can spend so willingly. And of course, they do run into a wall at some point, if people can't give again and/or because not all rich people will be giving to Republicans.

                Like I said, I am just not sure about a lot of this. Has anyone done any analysis on this?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:49:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  $75 million (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, ArkDem14, sulthernao, askew, MichaelNY

            is the absolute floor for Obama in September and October. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit $150 million in one of those months.

            And I'm not sure why a 2008 donor would more valuable than a 2012 donor. In other words, as long as there are new donors replacing the ones from 2008 who haven't (yet) contributed, it should be a wash.

            •  2008 donors are not more or less valuable... (0+ / 0-)

              they're just noticeable by their absence.  Where did they go? Why are they not donating now? Will they still be voting?

              An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

              by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:46:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  But you could ask the opposite questions (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                about the new donors (and there are even more of them AFAIK). Who are these new people? Where did they come from? What about Obama has gotten them all jazzed up? How much of "banked" vote do they represent?

    •  Meh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      Obama has been to Texas (maybe twice). In the case of R&R it might be throwing some s**t against to the wall just to see what sticks as they seem very concerned about Ohio.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:23:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  mi poll yesterday showed Romney up 4 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It was a POS poll made up of almost no voters under 50. It even had the nerve to show Orchestra leading Stabenow.
      When Romney starts running ads there I take it seriously.

  •  Brown, McCaskill, Akin, Voinovich, and Metzenbaum (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, ArkDem14, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Based on a DCCyclone comment in another thread about how some here seem just as convinced as Republicans that McCaskill's ceiling is around 49 percent and how she might only win by a hair-like plurality, I thought of the 1988 Ohio Senate race. I'm not sure if Metzenbaum was supposed to win, but I'd bet he was comfortably ahead, kind of like Sherrod Brown is now. When Voinovich accused him of being soft on child porn, his lead ended up as a huge win. Were Sherrod Brown to be in McCaskill's position, he'd be pushing 57 or 58 percent. But McCaskill was, of course, tied or trailing her opponents, Akin included, so her base is lower. She could and probably will get the same sort of bump from this incident, assuming Akin stays in, but her ceiling will be lower. Not that low, of course--probably more like 54 percent--but there's not a person out there who isn't pumped about that possibility. As someone once said, most campaign managers would sell their grandmas into white slavery for an eight-point win.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:38:13 AM PDT

    •  OH 1988 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Yea, Metzenbaum was supposed to win. I don't think he was ever in any real danger during that race.

      Language professors HATE me!

      by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:54:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right, but what I am saying is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        consider the relative positions of the candidates.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:14:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Before November 2010... (5+ / 0-)

      Even I didn't think Harry Reid could reach 50% here in Nevada. Boy, were we all surprised!

      When one is blessed with a shockingly incompetent opponent (like Sharrrrrrrrron Angle or Todd Akin) AND one puts together an awe-inspiring campaign team, the "impossible" suddenly becomes possible. I'm just wondering if McCaskill has put together that kind of campaign.

      •  She has, but... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        ...she's got less money than Harry in a bigger and more expensive state, so she's not going to have the same saturation level as Harry.  And the state Dems don't have the GOP whipped in organization like in Nevada, so that, too, is a problem.  As is the lower floor a Democrat has, since there is a much smaller percentage of people of color in Missouri than in Nevada.

        That said, McCaskill has plenty of money to do what she wants, the DSCC is prepared to go to the mat for her with their own ads, and Akin unlike Angle has been publicly made a pariah by his own party.  That last point is huge, it completely offsets McCaskill's disadvantages I identify in the above paragraph.

        Imagine if after Angle's victory, instead of tepidly and formally embracing her, the national GOP condemned her and demanded she step down, and forever cut off her financial lifeline?  Then what if she refused and rode it out through election day?  Can you imagine how big a win Reid would've had?  He easily would've won by double digits, I bet he would've reached 55% even with his low-40s job approval.

        McCaskill won't do as well as Reid would have had Angle been treated like that, but she'll win.

        The big thing is that in spite of the risk that he'll drop out, I think she has no choice but to bury him ASAP.  She can't worry about what goes on in his head regarding staying in the race, she really can't control that, and she's not strong enough electorally to take the chance of being a tease and letting it stay close deep into September.

        That Akin still eventually could drop out, as McCaskill pulls away, worries me, but I think she has no practical way of managing that and just must dive ahead.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:50:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thankfully, Akin didn't offend women of color (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          but all women.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:55:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  David Rivera Caught? (6+ / 0-)

    I think we all had good reason to speculate that David Rivera was behind Justin Lamar! Sternad's effort to derail Joe Garcia in the FL-26 Democratic primary, but the Miami Herald seems to have confirmed it. Is it possible that Rivera could face even further legal trouble for this?

    "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:39:36 AM PDT

    •  WI Repubs didn't get in trouble... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...for planting a fake Democrat in a primary in an attempt to trip up Lori Compas in the 13th Wisconsin State Senate District recall election earlier this year. Compas beat the fake Democrat, Gary Ellerman, with over 70% of the vote in the recall primary, but lost the recall general election to Republican incumbent Scott Fitzgerald.

      David Rivera's goons should be in deep legal trouble over this stunt to trip up Joe Garcia, but don't hold your breath.

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:48:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a state issue vs a federal issue. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

        The DoJ/FBI wouldn't have investigated the fake WI candidates, but they are investigating Rivera's fake Dem.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:43:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, different jurisdiction, different results (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The Wisconsin authorities basically allowed the fake Democrat scheme without seriously considering taking any sort of legal action against any of the fake Democrats, Wisconsin GOP operatives, or any of the Republican state legislators targeted by the recall. I remember the whole debacle over the attempt to trip up Lori Compas quite fondly, as she gave this exchange to Wisconsin elections authorities:

          My only hope is that the Feds take the stunt that Rivera pulled in an attempt to trip up Garcia in Florida more seriously than the scheme that the Wisconsin GOP came up with in an attempt to trip up the legitimate Democrats that ran in the recall elections there.

          Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

          by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:47:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NBC/Telemundo: Obama 63-28 with Latinos (7+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:45:37 AM PDT

  •  Who did Thompson lobby for while in DC? (6+ / 0-)

    And then who is donating to his campaign now? That seems like it would ba cut and dry connection to make.  

    Frame Thompson as the lobbyists trying to get an "inside man" into the Senate.

    I think it's obvious Tommy thought he ran his last race, so went to cash in.  But now he's back running for office - you have to hang his lobbyist history and pay around his neck.  

    I like how the Baldwin campaign is differentiating between the old Tommy the Governor, and the new Tommy the DC Lobbyist when they say "he's not for you ANYMORE".

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:46:20 AM PDT

    •  I had the same thought about Dan Coats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Of course, it was 2010, so it didn't really help. But this time, it ought to matter.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:22:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Indiana's a lot more conservative (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        And this isn't 2010.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:47:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They're soft-pedaling the issue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      They're showing ads where the key image is Thompson driving around on a motorcycle looking like a badass. The rhetoric is weak and the attack is tired.

      Rep. Baldwin needs to hit Thompson on temperament, and she needs to hit him on his Bush administration ties. Yeah, maybe she'll end up being viewed as a "dyke bitch" and she'll lose, but it's looking like she's probably going to lose anyway.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:38:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or, you know, the Ryan plan... (0+ / 0-)

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:23:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          Bush + lobbying + being an old crank is the trifecta to attack Tommy on.

          You seem obsessed with the Ryan Plan, but especially in Ryan's home state, I don't think it's fertile ground.  

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:39:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just seems like such fertile ground, is all. (0+ / 0-)

            It's different for Thompson because he didn't vote for any form of it and has a long history with the state, but given his party is likely to gut the program like a fish, you'd assume we'd be able to nail him on it, at least a little.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:04:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  At this point, given the polling (0+ / 0-)

        I think I agree with you.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 12:19:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Thompson up 5 over Baldwin 49-44
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Language professors HATE me!

    by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:56:53 AM PDT

  •  Gallup? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1

    What's up with Gallup? The daily tracking poll has had a two point lead for Romney for days now, with no numerical changes.

  •  rasmussen is pushing it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, JOEL1954, MichaelNY

    He just came out with a poll with McMahon leading Murphy 49-46. No way I buy that. The man is shameless. I guess if Rove starts running ads there I may take it more seriously.

  •  WI-Marquette: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (12+ / 0-)

    No link yet, just heard it streaming here.

    http://law-media.marquette.edu/...

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:22:55 AM PDT

    •  From Twitter (0+ / 0-)

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:24:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, bythesea, sapelcovits

      Only lost 2 with Ryan.  

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:25:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Close enough to start running ads there... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27

      me thinks.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:31:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They're not though (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, askew

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:48:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The fundamentals there same as before (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          The three big things I look for in the Marquette Law polls are Obama job approval, Obama favorability, and Romney favorability.

          Obama job approval is 48-45, down from previous polls but not in a statistically meaningful way, and still net positive.

          Obama favorable is a strong 52-43.

          Romney is underwater at a very poor 35-45.

          That combination makes a Romney win impossible.

          The tighter ballot test does, indeed, look like a Ryan bounce.  Marquette Law has been good enough that I trust them and I trust a Ryan bounce in-state is real.

          But it's just a bounce, it will fade, the voters ultimately are voting on Obama and Romney and Obama will win, I still trust comfortably.

          If OFA shows virtually the same numbers in all these categories, including a tightening ballot test, then I think it's still only borderline whether they go in with ads.  The job approval and both guys' favorables still are insurmountable for Romney, but of course the ballot test has become margin-of-error.  If I were them, I might hold off until September at least with any ads.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:59:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  "impossible" is way too strong (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            when the election is more than 2 months away and Obama's top line lead is probably only a few points right now. Yes if you pushed me I'd say Obama's lead will most likely grow by November but none of us knows what's around the next corner. After all it was only 6 months ago when Obama had a comfortable double-digit lead in WI.

            I agree with you about advertising though - let Romney show his hand first.

            •  But it probably is impossible (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              if those favorable numbers hold on election day.

            •  Not too strong (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              What I said is correct, that combination of numbers makes a Romney win impossible.

              You are correct that those numbers today don't mean Romney can't win 2 months from now.

              But they do mean those numbers in 2 months mean Romney cannot win 2 months from now.

              And the reality is that those three fundamental numbers have moved very little over many months, with no reason to think they'll move any more going forward.  So anticipating the numbers will be the same in November is fair unless and until something unexpected happens to move them.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:40:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Good one, my 270win page makes WI blue again (0+ / 0-)

      after it being an ever so sad temporary red yesterday and all junk pollsters not included... it's currently 347/191...

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:39:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI Pres Obama 49 Romney 46 (6+ / 0-)

    per Marquette

  •  That's a good number so soon post-VP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Now, we have a +3 and +4 (CNN) to throw in with PPP's -1.

  •  Marquette: Thompson 50, Rep. Baldwin 40 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, SLDemocrat, Zornorph, MichaelNY

    Tweet here.

    Lean R seems generous at this point.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:34:37 AM PDT

    •  Similar to RAss (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      But PPP has it by 5.  Coming so soon after the primary, I would still have it as a lean.  

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:36:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's where I have it for now (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, MichaelNY

        I had it as Tilt D before the primary, though, and Tilt R immediately after it. Not heading in the right direction at all.

        I guess we can think of it as sort of a cosmic trade, Missouri for Wisconsin, but I'm not thrilled at retaining an unpopular senator like Sen. McCaskill rather than electing the country's first lesbian senator, a progressive like Rep. Baldwin.

        Wisconsin Democrats have been taking a lot of big gambles lately, including the virtual coronation of Baldwin as Senate nominee. Unfortunately, it's looking like this is just their latest gamble not to pay off.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:42:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And that cosmic trade isn't likely to last... (0+ / 0-)

          Akin will still get out of the way eventually.  

          An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:43:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The longer he stays in... (6+ / 0-)

            The worse the optics for the Republicans if they just sub in a handpicked candidate at the last possible minute. Besides, Secy. Carnahan could challenge Rep. Akin's withdrawal and tie it up in court.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:48:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly, could make a court case out of it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:54:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Won't work (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              If they go by the Lautenberg/Torricelli precedent in '02.  Which was after the deadline.

              And I think doing so would do more harm than good.

              “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

              by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:00:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Different state different laws (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                and Democrats and Carnahan can at least keep it tied up for several weeks before it goes through, giving that candidate even less time to campaign statewide.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:06:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Different state of course. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                And Akin will have to give reason more than "I'm losing big in the polls" or "I have no money to run a competitive campaign".  There is primary election dates and drop dates without cause for a reason.  Every day Akin stays in past yesterday's drop date but eventually tries to drop out is putting McCaskill at the disadvantage due to money she'd spend against him being essentially wasted.  She could argue (I doubt successfully) that Akin should have to reimburse her for the money she spent against him.  

                It depends on who the ultimate decider would be in such a case.  Because waiting until September 24th to drop out will have McCaskill spending $4-5M against Akin and probably only $4-5M left.  

                Of course he could just find a doctor to claim stress or something as reason he cannot continue.  

                An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

                by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:09:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  We still come out ahead. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, bythesea, MichaelNY

          Assuming Akin stays in, we've got a guaranteed win with Wisconsin being no worse than we we all knew it would be if Thompson were the nominee. It might be tough for Baldwin to win--the key words there being "might be"--but it's certainly still possible.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:53:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Baldwin has 41 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, itskevin, MichaelNY

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:36:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Boom goes that dynamite. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      I guess my figuring above was wrong.  Baldwin is toast.  

      Damn Kohl - this was a safe seat with Kohl.  We gifted this one to the GOP to make up for Snowe retiring and the best we get out of Maine is an Indie who might not even caucus with Dems if GOP takes the Senate.  

      Two Republicans elected into the Senate in two years, a GOP Gov elected, and the surviving a recall election - this state is reddish purple and trending the wrong way for our side.  

      Pres Obama should get ads up here because this state is sketchy as hell for Dems.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:41:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Toast? (7+ / 0-)

        Don't think so.

        And King will caucus with the Democrats.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:44:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  9 points, challenger at 50... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag

          two and a half months out from election = toast.

          King will caucus with whomever has the majority.  

          An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:49:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Baldwin is not an incumbent (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, bythesea, askew, MichaelNY

            that has absolutely no pertinence here.

            •  I didn't claim she was. (0+ / 0-)

              An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

              by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:53:40 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You said Thompson was the challenger (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                ipso facto, Baldwin has to be the incumbent.

                “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

                by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:55:21 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  He is challenging her, she is challenging him. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lina

                  I even mentioned Kohl in my original post to this thread.  I'm fully aware that Baldwin is not the incumbent, and in fact there is no incumbent in this race.  

                  An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

                  by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:02:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "Challenger" (4+ / 0-)

                    Is a term that is generally used only in races that involve an incumbent. For open seat races, it's "opponent."

                    Political Director, Daily Kos

                    by David Nir on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:36:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You know who was NOT a challenger? (0+ / 0-)

                      Gary Hart in 1988 during the primaries. Some of you may remember this joke from around that time:

                      What do Donna Rice and Christa McAulife have in common?

                      They both went down on the challenger.

                      Putting taste and sensitivity aside, there is a big problem with this joke. In 1988, as he ran for the dem nomination for president, Gary Hart was not the "challenger." He was often referred to as a challenger to presumed nominee Walter Mondale in 1984 when he gave him an unexpectedly tough contest in the primaries, even though it was an incumbent he was challenging, the general term could fairly apply to him then. But by 1988, at the time of the Donna Rice incident, Hart was the frontrunner himself. There was not going to be an incumbent running that year, but if there was going to be a "challenger" to the frontrunner for the nomination, it sure wasn't going to be Hart. Until the scandal broke he had been leading considerably in the polls.

                      Yet this joke was widely received as funny and immediately grasped by pretty much everyone who heard it. My initial reaction to the joke when I heard it (in a hot tub at Camp Quad in Wisconsin) was "why is Gary Hart the challenger?" Needless to say I was well out of sync with the crowd and probably the great bulk of the population, but I have been utterly irked by that joke ever since then. Why do people get it?

              •  You said Thompson was the challenger (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, sawolf

                so Baldwin would have to be the incumbent, but there is no challenger and no incubment. Thomspon does start off the better known candidate since he has held statewide office before, and had lots of national exposure.

          •  Who's the challenger? (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Davidsfr, bythesea, itskevin, MichaelNY

            Thompson is more the incumbent.  He's the only one of the 2 to be elected statewide.  Baldwin is the challenger.

            “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

            by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:52:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  King will not caucus with Republicans (6+ / 0-)

            I'm sorry. He just won't. He might caucus with no one, but he won't end up caucusing with Republicans. He's far too liberal for them.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:55:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  "caucus with no one"? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              That would mean not casting a vote for Leader of the Senate? Unlikely.
              Actually I wonder if that's ever happened in the past...

              But yeah, the odds must be 0.1% King would go with the Repub caucus

              •  Two Senators have "caucused with no one" (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But not for very long.  Dean Barkley (but he was only a senator for a couple weeks so it didn't matter), and Bob Smith from New Hampshire, who left the Republican Party while considering a presidential run, but then rejoined the Republican party after the elections (and he never lost his committee assignments so it doesn't really count much either)

                27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

                by JDJase on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:27:24 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Wayne Morse (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                homerun, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                There was a 3 year period in which he was an independent who refused to caucus with either party. The hardest part was keeping all of his committee memberships.

                Morse was reelected in 1950. In protest of Dwight Eisenhower's selection of Richard Nixon as his running mate, Morse left the Republican Party in 1952.The 1952 election produced an almost evenly-divided Senate; Morse brought a folding chair when the session convened, intending to position himself in the aisle between the Democrats and Republicans to underscore his lack of party affiliation. Morse expected to retain certain committee memberships but was denied membership on the Labor Committee and others. He used a parliamentary procedure to force a vote of the entire Senate, but lost his bid. Senator Herbert Lehman offered Morse his seat on the Labor Committee, which Morse ultimately accepted
                http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

                by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:50:42 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  no (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            okiedem, MichaelNY

            you're confusing King with the Democratic state senate from New York Simcha Felder.

            I don't think Republicans will allow an Obama supporter to caucus with them.

            "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

            by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:42:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  One poll (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            Just one poll showing these results.  I want to see more polls like this before I say "toast".  We HAVE seen multiple polls like this for Bob Kerrey in NE, not yet for Baldwin.  And for the record, I don't think Warren is toast yet either.

      •  My Guess Is That WI..... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, lina, MichaelNY

        .....will keep giving love to Republicans for another cycle or so and then get it out of their system and swing the other way.  The state appeared to be a monolithic wall for Democrats just four years and now seems to be a monolithic wall for Republicans.   Seems to me the trendline is wild pendulum swings similar to the rest of the Midwest rather than anything lasting.  Once it becomes clear that Walkerism isn't gonna do anything for the state, they will probably move onto the next hero of the left who will also prove to not be Superman and then they'll sorrow on him/her.  Rinse and repeat.  Expect this endless cycle of switching teams looking for a savior to play out every five years or so in most of the Midwest as the region continues to crumble.

        •  Well, Jim Doyle was able (0+ / 0-)

          to win handily in 2006, but that's more due to the disappointing campaign Mark Green ran. Still, the state is really hard to peg politically. They seem to vote for and reelect people of both parties who aren't necessarily a good-fit/popular/good politicians and do so by large margins.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:05:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not Really Surprising When You Consider..... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            .....it's a state polarized between Madison and the Circle of Ignorance.  Not many states have ideological divides that significant and that evenly divided from a voting population standpoint.  And given that there's no consensus in the rural areas, that means a relatively small number of swing voters determine whether the state more resembles New York or Oklahoma politically.

            •  I believe though that Madison is growing faster (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fearlessfred14

              than the circle of ignorance, and what's more Madison is getting even more liberal as time goes on. In 1998 the area was a Democratic-leaning, swing seat. Now look at it!

              The problem is many of the rural voters are slipping away from Democrats, permanently I fear. And while the Fox Valley is slipping towards Democrats as well, it's slipping slower and more unevenly than these rural areas that are trending against Democrats. This means that in the short-term, Wisconsin Republicans are in a slightly stronger position than the state's Democrats.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:38:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which rural voters? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                fearlessfred14

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:29:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The North Woods (0+ / 0-)

                  and a lot of Kind's and Duffy's districts.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:41:52 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  To map this out thoroughly (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Chachy

                  In 2000 Gore won the state by .2%, with Nader getting around 3.5% of the vote.

                  Milwaukee County cast 433,537 votes. Gore won 58.20% of those votes to Bush's 37.2%.

                  Waueksha County cast 203,734 votes. Bush won those 65.3% to 31.6%.

                  Washington County cast 61,412 votes, Bush won it 67% to 29.5%.

                  Ozaukee County cast 47,751 votes. Bush won it 65.2% to 31.5%.

                  Dane County cast 232,739 votes. Gore won 61.5% to Bush's 32.6%.

                  Now just skin ahead to 2008 and, look at the swing of these counties, fairly adjusted; I took 4 points off the swing of each county to cover Obama's national improvement over Gore and see how these areas of Wisconsin grew and trended compared to the nation as a whole.

                  Let's look at the three biggies first:

                  Milwaukee County: 475,192 votes, D+5 shift compared to Gore.

                  Waukesha County: 232,897 votes, D+2 (26 point McCain margin compared to a 34% Bush margin)

                  Dane County: 282,839 votes, D+4 Shift

                  Let me just note that the total increase in voters in Ozaukee and Washington was just under 20,000 votes.

                  So the Republican counties, the circle of ignorance, gained, generally, 50,000 votes in that time span.

                  The two big Democratic counties gained 92,000 votes, and what's more Dane county hasn't really seen the same type of slow and housing bust parts of the Milwaukee suburbs have over the last 4 years and so this gap is likely to grow even wider.

                  The point is clear; the core Democratic urban vote is growing quite fast, and some of the Dane periphery counties like Jefferson, Sauk, Iowa and Columbia are beginning to go blue as the influence from Madison slowly spreads outward.

                  Long term, it seems obvious that the Republicans are in trouble in the state, even as they continue to solidify their hold over rural voters in Western WI.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:17:46 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I hope you are right. (0+ / 0-)

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:14:02 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  The problem with your analysis (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack

                    Is that Milwaukee County isn't really monolithic. Places like Tosa and West Allis are pretty swingy, and Places like Franklin and Oak Creek are honestly getting pretty red. Milwaukee County / MKE city.

            •  i don't get why everyone says WI is polarized (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy

              it isn't THAT bad, especially when you look at elasticity and see that it is very sensitive to national swings. If you want to see a real polarized state, go to GA where both parties are made up of robot voters.

              also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

              by demographicarmageddon on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:15:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Nobody who knows anything says polarized (0+ / 0-)

                WI is one of the least polarized states in the country.  Only three of the eight CD districts are polarized... 2, 4, 5.

                The 3rd, 7th, 8th and 6th are very anti-polarized.  In these areas, people who live virtually the same lives vote for both parties, and lots of them will be flexible in their choices.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:51:48 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Polarization As You're Describing It...... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  .....is ultimately insignificant as it applies to uncompetitive states.  Obviously Mississippi is the most polarized state in the country, but how significant is that when one side of the polarized divide is always larger than the other?  If Republicans are gonna win in Mississippi 100% of the time, then it's not polarized in the sense that Wisconsin is....where evenly divided very liberal and very conservative bases both have a path to victory depending upon the political environment.

              •  Georgia Isn't Polarized In The Same Sense As WI... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701, MichaelNY

                .....because in Georgia the Republican base is significantly larger than the Democratic base.....so we know that the right is almost always gonna win, at least with the current makeup of Georgia voters.  Granted there's not much of a swing vote, but that's irrelevant because the conservative Republicans exceed the number of Democrats and swing voters in the first place.  Wisconsin's polarization is much more striking because the swing vote breaks a tie between a very liberal Democratic base and a very conservative Republican base.  Therefore the state is capable of electing very liberal Democrats and very conservative Republicans from one cycle to the next in a way most states aren't.

        •  It's kind of bizarre that you're so positive (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

          compared to some of the people in this thread...lol.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:25:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wisconsin. The new New Jersey (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aamail6, MichaelNY

          (in Presidential politics)

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:45:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  reddish-purple? (13+ / 0-)
        Two Republicans elected into the Senate in two years, a GOP Gov elected, and the surviving a recall election - this state is reddish purple and trending the wrong way for our side.  
        Jeez, what's with all the dooming about WI lately? It's "reddish-purple"? It's "turning into Kansas," as someone said the other day?

        Four years ago, Obama won it by 14%, 7% more than his national win. Kerry overperformed his national numbers there by less than 4%.

        Then they elect a republican governor and senator in 2010. Well big deal - Illinois nearly did the same thing. Is Illinois reddish-purple?

        Yeah, Walker survived the recall - in the sort of special election Democrats tend not to vote in, and in part because a bunch of people voted for him just because they were opposed to the recall process. And of course Democrats actually won the state senate through those recalls, too.

        Thompson/Baldwin is clearly just a good candidate matchup for the Rs.

        Meanwhile, Obama has consistently led Romney all year in the state, with Romney not even seriously contesting it - and maybe only possibly thinking about testing it now that his VP pick is from the state.

        There is just no evidence WI is shifting to the right.

        •  Agree. I mentioned yesterday (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that it was also in the 'm.o.e' for much of August/September 2008 with Obama posting 1-6 leads over McCain who also led 3 times and twice by more than Romney has so far...

          "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

          by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:13:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Usual suspects (7+ / 0-)

          Two of them, going off the deep end in race after race with their posts. Getting on my nerves. Positive I'm not the only one.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:21:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's quickly moving into troll territory IMHO (0+ / 0-)

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:23:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thank you (0+ / 0-)

              I was reluctant to do it but I felt it has got to the point where they needed calling out.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:30:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I only speak for myself, but (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              there has to be some sort of metric we use to...well, do whatever. I think Sao's being too pessimistic now on WI, but at least he has more evidence than Mark27 did (not to pick on him, but this example just stuck out in my head) when he said he thought Nelson would lose in Florida. I've had some opinions here about Texas that few share, but I think I've at least backed up my claims reasonably well. Some scream WE R LIKE SO DOOMED!!!!! without anything in particular, or anything at all, supporting their claims.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:30:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also, Walker didn't treat all unions the same (0+ / 0-)

          and there was a solid chunk of voters that simply didn't like the recall process.

          I'm curious to see what happens over the long(er) term-- whether all public employees lose their collective bargaining rights or all of them gain them back, for instance.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:27:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Polite request (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Davidsfr, bythesea, tietack, MichaelNY

        Please give the definitive statements a rest.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:18:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Polite rebuttal... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag

          I'll say whatever I want.  When you have a respected Marquette polling outfit finding a 9 point lead for a very well known candidate and former four time Governor a mere two and a half months out from the election I'll call it like i see it.  

          I'm saying or doing nothing wrong or against the mission statement of this subsite unless there is a rule that says "Must agree with Conspiracy and any other former SSP members and must discredit any poll that shows the Republican winning and must find silver linings in any bad poll from the in house polling outfit PPP".  

          But I'll do you this solid - If Baldwin wins in November I'll quit posting at DKE.  But since I don't want to give something without getting something - what say you quit DKE if Baldwin gets 46.9% or less come the election?

          An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:19:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, calm down. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            Nobody is denying your right to your opinion. There's no reason not to be worried about what we've seen so far, but there's also no reason to panic and claim that Baldwin is toast. You could easily end up being right and Baldwin could lose, but I don't think that's at all cleat right now. Neither do a lot of other people.

            Unless you develop troll-like behavior, which you aren't exhibiting right now, I see no reason for you to stop posting here. Some people don't like what you have to say, but unless they are being unreasonably nasty to you, there's no reason to get upset.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:27:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well see I'm being called a troll in this very (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingTag

              thread by Conspiracy and called out for getting on his personal nerves and requesting that I don't state my opinion when it is a definitive statement reacting to a Marquette poll showing Tommy Thompson with a nine-point lead.  

              I mean Marquette shows Pres Obama with a 3-4 point lead and everybody here acts like it's still safe Obama.  But a 9 point Tommy lead - well that just means it's still up for grabs.  

              An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

              by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:36:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  This is borderline obnoxious (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14, tietack, MichaelNY

            and certainly childish.

            Proposing a bet to quit the site based on electoral analysis? Really?

          •  Another request (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, tietack

            Please don't put words in my mouth.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:33:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't need to - there here for all to see (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingTag
                Usual suspects (5+ / 0-)

              Two of them, going off the deep end in race after race with their posts. Getting on my nerves. Positive I'm not the only one.

                Thank you (0+ / 0-)

              I was reluctant to do it but I felt it has got to the point where they needed calling out.

               Pessimism is fine (0+ / 0-)

              People can see my ranking's in Michael's diary. I am pessimistic in plenty places. However, I am NOT writing races off willy-nilly like Mark and Jacoby.

              An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

              by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:42:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  well you can't expect every Democratic senator (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14, redrelic17, MichaelNY

        to be the next senator Byrd or Inouye and keep running for reelection. Kohl did his part, as he held this seat for team blue for 24 years (and it wasn't easy either as he won is his first race in a nailbitter too!)
        Kohl gave ample time to allow the Dems to find a candidate. He did not pull a last minute withdrawl like what Bayh did.

        "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

        by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:38:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What has Kohl's involvement been so far? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Has he helped Baldwin in every way he can?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:58:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  well he's endorsed her (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and I'm sure he'll campaign hard for her

            "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

            by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:11:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's what I am asking: when will he campaign (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              for Baldwin? Given he's probably the least controversial politician in the state, if not the most popular, with a long record of service, his word probably means a lot. When he becomes (more) engaged, we could easily see movement to Baldwin.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:29:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Endorsers (0+ / 0-)

                I don't think just because someone popular makes an endorsement and campaigns with her, that's likely to convince a lot of people. It does work sometimes, like some of the time when Bill Clinton campaigns for someone, but I sure wouldn't count on it working.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 01:02:59 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding WI-Sen numbers from PPP... (0+ / 0-)

    Compared to the Marquette Presidential numbers, it would seem that PPP ran into a Repub sample of at least a couple points, so Thompson probably leads Baldwin by three rather than five.  

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:35:45 AM PDT

  •  Marquette: Thompson 50-41 over Baldwin (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Certainly a bit of a primary win bounce, but Baldwin definitely has an uphill climb here.

    •  I'll wait to see what the polls look like after (7+ / 0-)

      Labor Day.  Thompson got a boost from his primary win and the Ryan selection.  A couple of weeks of ads about his tax returns, and the waning of those factors, may change things.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:39:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        I'll keep it at tilts for now but I suspect I might have to move it over to leans in a couple weeks unfortunately. But lets wait and see. I remember when Perry and Gingrich were positively, definitely the GOP nominee.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:23:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Is this new Marquette Poll "certain voters"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    That is what they have done in the past.

  •  No, I think WI-Sen is now a lost cause now! (0+ / 0-)

    I just can't believe were going to lose the "Proxmire" seat! I just want to believe that Marquette poll is a bullshit poll!

  •  O-H-I-O gate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Just a link to have handy when your right wing uncle sends you that email about how the president cant spell Ohio. Along with a snarky comment about his college transcripts.

  •  Marquette (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, bythesea, askew

    Thompson up 50-41. Seems a bit low for Baldwin and too high for Thompson. I seem to recall seeing that Thompson was only up by 3 with independents, which makes a 9 point lead overall seem a bit inflated.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:52:29 AM PDT

    •  Seems Pretty Credible With the Presidential Sample (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat

      .....Baldwin's only hope is a phoned-in campaign by Thompson comparable to his primary campaign.

      •  Rasmussen's Presidential samples (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, bythesea, SLDemocrat

        often seem credible too, only to have Senate results that are too favorable to Republicans. I'm not sold on this. And the campaign is, of course, far from over. Since winning the primary Thompson has made several unforced errors, and seems blusterous and over-confident. Not to mention Baldwin has a lot more money than him, and Democratic groups like Emily's List and the DSCC are going to go all in. The combination D-turnout machine from the OFA and the recall elections is nothing to sneeze at either, even if state Republicans have an equally potent GOTV organization.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:59:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Same polite request I made to Jacoby (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, David Nir, askew, tietack, MichaelNY

        Please give the definitive statements a rest.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:27:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Top 2 referendum in Arizona fails: (6+ / 0-)

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:00:18 AM PDT

  •  the catch with your MO2 scenario (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Sam Page is fresh off losing a primary for the State Senate in 2010.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:02:21 AM PDT

  •  Baldwin will win in WI by 20 points. (15+ / 0-)

    I have no special insight into the race, but I figured I'd post a similarly outlandish prediction, but on the positive side.

    She has a tough race ahead of her, no doubt. I don't think anyone expected anything differently. But it's been all of seven goddamn days since he won the primary. Really, just seven days. We've had, what, two credible polls since then that show her down by a reasonable but not alarming margin.

    There's a lot to think about when it comes to deciding her best path forward, but before we jump ship on a candidate whom most if not all of us would love to see in the Senate, can we stop; take a breath; realize that it's still August, that we can still define her and define him how we want, that we will have a fantastic infrastructure working for us in the state, among other things? Hell, for all we know, he could step in it just as badly as Akin did.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:02:43 AM PDT

    •  Hear, hear (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:29:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I had been working on a diary (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

        about McCaskill, but I think I am going to put that aside for now. I'm going to try to make one about Wisconsin.

        Whatever else you can say about the different elections in recent years, they've given us a pretty good idea of what the base is depending on the environment. I'm interested in seeing just how much more room we might have left in our areas of strength in the state compared to what they might have left--how the Circle of Ignorance compared to Madison in 2008, 2010, and 2012, among other things. Perhaps this has been done to death, but if not, it'll be interesting to see which side, if any, is closer to being tapped out.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:36:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  One thing that I've found (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is that the base areas are fairly inelastic, though turnout varies. Madison in particular has a tradition of giving the Democrat 80%, no more, no less. Most of the change in margin comes from outstate, especially the northeastern and southwestern parts of the state. Contrary to national pattern, McCain did decently in the southeastern suburbs (except for City of Waukesha) and Lake Superior counties, but he underperformed horribly in rural areas and the Fox Valley.

          Also, don't use 1988 as a point of comparison in your analysis. Wisconsin turned hard left that year because of a farm crash that Reagan mismanaged.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:05:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't plan on using 1988, but thanks for the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            warning regardless!

            But anyway, I'm specifically talking about turnout, not the percentage of the vote that each side earns. Baldwin's district supposedly has the best turn out of any Democratic district in the country. (Oddly enough, the best for the Republicans is supposedly Sessennbrenner's district.) If that's the case, there's just less untapped potential.

            I've been meaning to ask you a few questions about the state, since you appear to know a lot. For now, though, lemme ask you, was there anything Democrats might have done differently in Wisconsin to win against Walker? Specifically, were the rock solid red areas of the state tapped out, and/or were the blue areas?

            On a more general note, is the rest of the state becoming similar to the Circle of Ignorance?

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:37:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think both bases were pretty tapped out (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              at least for a gubernatorial election. It was high turnout, and both campaigns were scraping bottom to get votes in strong areas. Milwaukee in particular had excellent turnout for a non-presidential election. However, Walker was able to get his voters out in the purple areas that make up most of the state more than Barrett was. We Are Wisconsin's ground game was very urban-focused, and that won't do it in a largely rural state.

               Also, if Barrett had done the ground game through official channels rather than leaving it to multiple SuperPACs, it probably would have worked better. Coordination restrictions are a joke in the air war, but they matter big time on the ground.

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

              by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:54:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which coordination restrictions are you (0+ / 0-)

                referring to? For all the talk of SuperPac involvement, I have yet to see a clearly defined list of rules they must abide by.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:32:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Mainly they can't share voter lists (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  which was a real problem in the GOTV campaign. Here in Madison, people would get their door knocked three or more times and have lit posted by multiple groups. I think there are a few other restrictions, but it creates a lot of bureaucracy where the campaign can least afford it.

                  Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                  by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:44:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Sounds like the sort of problem (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    that might be waiting for the Romney campaign.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:16:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Especially in Nevada (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      and any other state where the state party is defective and "shadow parties" have to be used. AFP has money and some manpower, but SuperPACs aren't really a substitute for a party organization.

                      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:03:22 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  For once, you and I agree bj (4+ / 0-)

      I think people are giving up on this race way too soon. Thompson starts as the favorite, but he does seem rusty to me. Baldwin is not a perfect match for Wisconsin, but she's not a complete mismatch either. She's good enough to beat Thompson if the right circumstances align.

      I do agree with Sao that she needs to start running a more aggressive campaign. But this is by no means out of reach for her.

      •  Surely we've agreed more than once. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Anyway, she might need to be more aggressive. My guess is that this would involve Medicare and Social Security. Regardless of what Thompson has said, convince people he'll be a rubber stamp for Romney and Ryan.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:06:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You're right! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY

      And Im getting on ppl panicking on Massachusetts, when I myself am panicking on Wisconsin. A bit hypocritical on my part. It just that I want to see these 2 women in the senate! you know.

      •  I get it, I really do. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, MichaelNY

        I get depressed when I think of what's happened in Wisconsin in the last few years. Still, it's August 22, not October 22.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:07:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bless you for this comment (eom) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:02:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:18:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm EXTREMELY nervous about ALL races! (3+ / 0-)

    I know I need to get a life because all I do all day long is look at every poll I can find on Real Clear Politics and everywhere else.

    But whether or not you've lost some "faith" in Nate Silver for including some seemingly outlier polls in his number crunching,  there is no doubt that there has been a tremendous tightening of races--most of which has NOT been good for the Dems.  And yes, this includes the Presidential race as well.   The polls for the Massachusetts, Connecticut and Wisconsin Senate races are also showing less than stellar numbers--and considering that we are now about to enter September, this is VERY serious!

    Over and over I have been saying for the last several years now that too many Americans have simply "bought" the Repugnican brand--whether they are college graduates or more recent immigrants to America who are new voters.   It really seems as if many folks honestly no longer care if they vote against their own self-interests because they have culturally aligned themselves with Republicans.  It's that tragically simple.   And so, even if the Republicans have a lousy candidate running--whether it be Romney or Akin--too many voters STILL will pick the Republican over the Democratic candidate simply because they feel that the Republicans are "their" party!  Indeed, all of the propaganda from the past 25 years (whether it be from Rove's millions and millions or the Koch Addict Brothers' PAC) has convinced folks that Democrats are losers.

    I am besides myself to see how Mr. Wall Street Scott Brown can now be ahead of Elizabeth Warren.  But obviously, if that many Massachusetts voters are duping their own selves into believing that Brown is an "Independent" than  I shudder to think about voters throughout the rest of the country, including in the Presidential race.

    The longer Democrats refuse to acknowledge this tragic trend, the more we are hurting our chances everywhere.  I am pushing 60 years old, and I can honestly say that this is NOT the same country I grew up in.  Voters have now moved so far to the right of the political spectrum that Eisenhower-- or even Ronnie Reagan--would be Flaming "Libruls" by today's standards.

    We Democrats must wake up and realize this before it is REALLY too late--like on the Supreme Court for starters.

  •  I can't understand why the DCCC (9+ / 0-)

    Hasn't immediately put Taj on the Red to Blue list and is not funneling resources in. I mean Taj might be a bit too liberal for the district in any normal circumstance, but he's a respected and relatively well-connected local doctor who has some experience in municipal elections. Everything I've seen makes Taj appear like a likeable, affable guy, and this is a district that does vote for Democrats over gadfly Republicans, (Obama won it over McCain narrowly in 2008, and McCain was hardly a gadfly). Cassis got 35% in the primary and absolutely refused to back Bentivolio, who is a true flake and crazy some dude, and utterly toxic to the Republican establishment which would rather lose this seat and win it back in 2014 (or make a strong play for it), than have Bentivolio. Bart Enders, a Republican user here from that district even said he was considering voting for Taj or simply writing in a candidate.

    So either the DCCC is stupid, slow, knows something horrifically damaging about Taj that nothing in media has come up with, or they think the race is already in the bag as won.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:19:24 AM PDT

    •  I suspect it's either number two or number four (6+ / 0-)

      This race was on nobody's radar before then-Rep. McCotter took us into the Twilight Zone. I think the establishments were fully expecting Creme de Cassis to add her sweet and bitter flavor to the general election ballot, which would have meant a Republican hold, but now that Paulist reindeer farmer and former abusive schoolteacher Kerry Bentivolio is the Republican standard-bearer, well...does anyone think Bentivolio really has a chance in hell at making it to Congress?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:33:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  BTW... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, ArkDem14, James Allen, MichaelNY

      Taj has apparently coined the epithet "Krazy Kerry" for his opponent. Story here.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:44:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  at the very least (5+ / 0-)

      there's a damned good contrast ad between Bentivolio's teaching career and Taj's physician career.

      Bentivolio 2012: He'll make you cry at least once!

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:03:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's 2 and/or a modified 3 (5+ / 0-)

      Your third point about "horrifically damaging" info is the closest to my guess on the truth, except that it's much less bad than that, it's simply that they view him a very underwhelming C-list candidate.  I know people here talk him up, but he ran as an unheralded sacrificial lamb offered against a safe incumbent, and only out of dumb luck is he on the possible cusp of actually being able to win.  I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC has their doubts, they probably know more about him than anyone here.

      And/or it could be that they're slow.  They could have their doubts about Taj and be slow, or they could feel great about this opportunity now but they just haven't gotten around to adding this race to their list.

      I will say I tend to be wary of the Kool-Aid that many serve here about their local candidates, when they're unknowns slated to challenge incumbents who the national parties don't consider particularly vulnerable.  That was the case with Taj.  Yes he can win now given who he's running against!  But that doesn't necessarily make Taj himself a better candidate, and remove all the causes of concern.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:30:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good points (6+ / 0-)

        Taj was one of the better sacrificial candidates out there though, and he's certainly fantastically positioned to pick this race up. He probably still needs outside help though, to attack Bentivolio and bring up his own name recognition and favorables, not to mention field work.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:33:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The other thing... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          This district is not super-Republican. It's winnable for the right Democratic candidate (or, maybe more to the point, the wrong Republican candidate can lose it).

        •  I know from experience that the DCCC values... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          ...a candidate's willingness and ability to come up with his own money, by raising it or self-funding, whatever the case may be.  They want candidates to show a willingness and ability to put together a competent infrastructure, even if it's one that needs some outside help to get up to snuff, before they'll jump in.

          Not that there can't be exceptions under unusual circumstances like this one, but that's something they care about.

          I don't know what kind of infrastructure Taj has shown a willingness to try to cobble together.  Also, did he meet with the DCCC in person?  If so, how did he come across?  Was he a nice guy who seemed out of his league?  Did he wave off their advice on what he should try to do?  These are things we can't possibly know that would cause them to pause before helping him.  Running for Congress is a big personal undertaking, the DCCC wants to know you'll have the humility to listen to good advice from people who know more than you about the mechanics of it all.

          I learned all this helping a candidate back in '94 who was running in Tennessee.  I hosted him up in D.C. and drove him around and accompanied him everywhere......and on his last day made a wrong turn and failed to get him to the airport on time and caused him to miss his return flight!  He didn't hold it against me.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:16:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I probably shouldn't say this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      but I know for a fact that the DCCC is interested in the race. I cannot say more than that.

      M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

      by slacks on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:39:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  And another Wisconsin poll to be released (8+ / 0-)

    tomorrow.

    Quinnipiac/NY Times.

    http://nationaljournal.com/...

    I, for one, have Badger fatigue.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:34:24 AM PDT

  •  Tampa's Mayor Buckhorn... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, askew, MichaelNY

    Is now warning that if Tropical Storm Isaac (expected to soon become Hurricane Isaac) strikes the city, he may shut down the Republican National Convention. Story here.

    "If we had to make that decision to cancel or to postpone or move the convention, we will do that knowing full well that my obligation and the city’s obligation is to move people out of harm's way. The politics will take care of itself," Buckhorn said Wednesday morning on CNN's "Starting Point" with Soledad O'Brien.
    Has this ever happened before?

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:36:25 AM PDT

  •  Little bit of DKE meta (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But I want to encourage everyone here who feels confident enough to make a senate/house predictions diary to do so.  I will be really curious to see everyone's ratings/predictions, including my own, compared to the actual results after election day.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:49:44 AM PDT

  •  Marquette (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    Of the five times they've polled a potential Thompson/Baldwin match-up, four of those polls have had Baldwin at 40-41% (the fifth had her at 43%). So it's a poll that's never been very favorable to her chances--I'm not sure why people are surprised at today's poll.

    Marquette's presidential numbers make sense to me, but their senate numbers don't. PPP's WI senate numbers make sense to me, but their presidential numbers don't. =\ Maybe tomorrow's Quinnipiac poll will be the tie-breaker.

    •  What inside knowledge do you have (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      that is causing you to find Q's Senate numbers senseless? Because if you don't have inside knowledge, why would you think you know better than an actual pollster whose results aren't wildly out of line with several other pollsters?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:19:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never said (0+ / 0-)

        that Quinnipiac's Senate numbers are senseless.

        I was just waiting to see whether their numbers were more similar to PPP or to Marquette. Sheesh.

        •  No, you implied that Marquette's numbers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          for the Senate race may not have made sense. Sorry for getting the pollster wrong, but my point remains. I may have read what you posted a bit too literally, though, given how you've now explained your thinking.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 12:58:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I just meant that their numbers don't make sense to me. I live in Wisconsin and the idea that any Democrat running statewide keeps polling so low doesn't make sense to me. Sorry if I wasn't being clear. I wasn't commenting on the quality of Marquette as a polling outfit or trying to imply that what they put out is nonsense.

            I think you took my post too literal.=)

  •  Rasmussen NM: Obama 52-38 (8+ / 0-)

    That PPP last month that had it in single digits looks like an outlier.

    I did note that Romney is in NM tomorrow. But it's for a speech on energy, and I think oil/gas is a big industry in the state. And they have a popular GOP governor.

    But right now, there doesnt seem to be any other indication that state is close.

  •  PPP's Akin poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    For those of you (like me) who were a little disturbed of the thought that PPP gamed it's Akin poll Rassmussen like, to try to influence the race, here's a good reply from Tom Jensen.

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  VOTE FOR MONTANA ON PPP'S WEEKEND POLL (4+ / 0-)

    Iowa and Nevada look like locks, but we need some fresh polling out of Montana, which is tied with SC right now. I don't think we really need a poll there.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

  •  Hehehe (10+ / 0-)

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:09:52 PM PDT

  •  New Hampshire fundraising reports are out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades
  •  Akin also conducted his own poll (10+ / 0-)
    Embattled Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin commissioned an automated-telephone poll Monday, which showed him in a statistical dead heat with Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo, according to a source close to the congressman. That finding, along with a separate Public Policy Polling survey showing the race competitive, played a large role in convincing him not to withdraw from the race before Tuesday's deadline.

    Akin's internal poll showed 90 percent of respondents were aware of the controversy, leading Akin to conclude he couldn't fall much further.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...
  •  Quebec Provincial Election (6+ / 0-)

    You know for a party that preaches openness and progressive values, they sure have a funny way of showing it...

    The Parti Québécois had to backpedal Wednesday from Leader Pauline Marois’s remarks that people running for public office in Quebec have to prove they have an appropriate grasp of the French language.

    The separatist leader had been speaking Tuesday about her party’s proposal to create a Quebec citizenship if it wins the Sept. 4 election.

    "It’s not for new Quebeckers, it’s for everyone. All Quebec citizens who want to be elected as a mayor or a councillor, as a member of the legislature, must have a knowledge of French,” Ms. Marois said during a campaign stop in Montreal.

    Even long-established anglophone Quebeckers would have to heed that requirement, she said. “In the case of anglophones, be it a native or a new arrival, the common language here is French,” Ms. Marois said. “Is there anyone who can imagine not knowing it?”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

    Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

    by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:38:43 PM PDT

  •  IN-02: That's a great ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Mullen gets to use Army footage and (rightly) call Walorski a career politician at the same time. That'll be worth a point or two.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:41:05 PM PDT

  •  Well someone thinks Elizabeth Warren is BETTER... (10+ / 0-)

    ...as a candidate than a few months ago, contrary to a lot of the doom trolls this morning:  http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    For the record, I have no idea if Rosie Gray's take is accurate.  But she doesn't have a dog in the hunt as far as I know, and works for a nonpartisan site.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:55:50 PM PDT

  •  Posted this in the other thread but... (5+ / 0-)

    Marquette's WI sample composition is one of the most anti-reality things ever.

    2008 exit poll 18-44 year olds  = 51%
    Marquette poll 18-44 year olds = 31%

    The Marquette poll is 29% seniors 65+.  
    The actual 2008 electorate was 12% seniors 65+.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:57:17 PM PDT

    •  DCCyclone will likely say (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, lordpet8, DCCyclone

      toplines matter.  Internals seldom do.  personally, I think that shifts it only a few points

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:20:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  crosstabs are one thing (0+ / 0-)

        demographic composition is something else.

        I agree there's usually little point worrying about what percentage of  Buddhist Tea Party supporters or whatever sub-group is supporting Obama in any given poll for the simple statistical reason that the MoE for sub-groups is much  higher than for the top line. Only if the results are wildly outside normal expectations as for instance they were for the SUSA NV poll is it really worth questioning them.

        It's much more reasonable to see what relationship the demographic composition of the poll has to the electorate at previous elections, particularly where there are well-established divergences between particular subsections' voting habits. Currently women, most ethnic minorities, and younger voters have a significantly higher propensity to vote Obama, so if these groups look like they're significantly underrepresented it could raise larger doubts about the validity of the findings. The recent FMW polls are an obvious case in point - they have such an unrealistic sample, wildly over-representing older voters and under-representing younger voters and ethnic minorities, that their findings are really meaningless. The Marquette one isn't nearly so extreme but I agree it isn't doing Obama any favors.

        •  In public polls it doesn't matter much (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBishop1

          I've followed this closely for a long time, and what I've found is the turnout models are rarely clear culprits.  As KingofSpades said, tweaking it using the crosstabs doesn't actually change the toplines very much at all.  But more importantly, if you look at polls over time, you see there's actually hardly any correlation between turnout models and toplines!  Polls with a larger Dem advantage often don't show any better results for Dem candidates than polls with little or no Dem advantage or even with a GOP advantage!  And larger or fewer indies also doesn't correlate to anything.

          That's why turnout models in public polls are unhelpful to study, because the correlation between the party ID and Dem performance is weaker than it should be in rigorous polling.

          I attribute this to public polling just being poor.

          Where this hurts us trying to tease out the state of a race is in races where public polls are few and infrequent.  When public polling is bad, more polls make it easier to get an accurate picture.  When public polling overall is better, fewer polls are enough to tell a true story.

          I've given up relying on either crosstabs or turnout models to inform of anything.  I glance at them for entertainment, but don't consider them reliable.  Like DKEer andgarden I used to look still at white subsample crosstabs thinking that is a very large group, almost always most of the sample, but I've grown to accept that even those numbers can be off by a few points either way, and since they are the dominant group, a very small error can completely offset a clearly large error with black or Hispanic voters to make it impossible to disprove a suspect topline.

          I think public polling has just gotten a lot harder.  And I suspect rapidly declining response rates, attributed partly to increasing cell phone reliance, has to be part of the explanation (or maybe even most/all of it?).

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:14:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  As always, I try to use this stuff as a guide. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            If something seems really out of whack, that might be a poll being skewed one way or the other. But it could also just be more right than wrong, in its own odd way.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:23:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  But I didn't even say anything about crosstabs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        distantcousin

        Toplines never matter if a sample is absurd.

        There are generally two types of polling, "representative samples" and "random samples".

        A thousand years ago we actually got random samples by calling the seventh phone number every seventh name in the phone book.  That lead to random samples.  Nobody polls like that anymore.

        Marquette's poll is not a representative sample of the electorate. And while age variations are not as volatile compared to polling 51% of republicans instead of 31% of republicans, the polarization between older voters is enormous, especially involving Obama.

        Only someone completely clueless would think a sample like this could possibly produce an accurate snapshot of an electorate that will be dramatically different.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:00:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do you think that they should have (0+ / 0-)

          "raked" to match the age results of the 2008 exit poll?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:17:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, if I'm understanding you right (0+ / 0-)

            Part of Marquette's problem is what you mention below.  They do all kinds of weighting based on population stats... and not based on voter turnout.

            If you cut off someone's head, and he becomes shorter, putting him in high heels to make him taller is not a compensating action.

            If you are a pollster, you need to learn how to call a reasonably representative sample of the electorate (if you want to have a pretense of likely voters) or a reasonably representative sample of all registered votes if you want to do that.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:26:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But these are separate issues, aren't they? (0+ / 0-)

              One question is "are their raw results a representative sample of the electorate?", but my sense is that's completely impossible and unrealistic, as you suggest above.

              If it's impossible to get raw results, then we can only hope for decent weighted results, and so we come to the question of "is their weighting procedure statistically valid, and if so, are their weights realistic and appropriate?".  This might be "cutting off someone's head and then putting him in high heels", but I don't know if there's an alternative.

              So do you think that raking isn't the right procedure, or that they should have used the weights from the exit poll (or some other set of weights) rather than the weights from the Census?

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:52:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  though there is the spanner in the works (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          that nobody knows for sure what the composition of the electorate is going to be until after the event, which can sometimes be a get-out-of-jail card for LV polls which "look" to have the wrong demographic composition.

          That's one of the hazards of political polling as opposed to, say, trying to find out what people think about a brand of ice-cream. In the latter case you can find out what the population you're trying to sample is simply by consulting census data. In a political poll you can never really know what the population is, you have to guess it. And those guesses can sometimes be significantly wrong.

          •  Perfection is hard (impossible) (0+ / 0-)

            but getting in the ballpark is not.

            In terms of age demographics, 2012 will be approximately the same as 2008 which was approximately the same as 2004.

            2008 18-44 = 51%
            2004 18-44 = 50%

            A poll with a sample that is 47% or 54% 18-44 is within the realm of plausible.

            A poll with 31% 18-44 is worthless junk.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:37:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  a bit too absolutist for my liking (0+ / 0-)
              In terms of age demographics, 2012 will be approximately the same as 2008 which was approximately the same as 2004.
              Ok that's 2 data points. But you can't know that the 3rd will match that pattern. Even an infinite past series never guarantees its continuation into the future, and 2 is far too few to go on (though I agree that 31% is  too low).

              The other thing is that the voting preferences of the 31-44 age group were little different in 08 from the numbers in the 45-64 category in WI. In terms of the top lines it's particularly the 18-30 and 65+ that  matter as these tend to be the farthest apart. Were these also implausible? That would matter much more I think.

            •  I think this comes from the raking procedure. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy

              How raking seems to work is you have two (or more) dimensions where you want the right breakdown, and you re-weight your data one at a time until everything is close enough.  However, "close enough" is a standard.  For example, the thing I linked to continued:

              We applied the convergence criteria in terms of percent absolute relative difference, which was specified to be no more than 0.01 percent for all marginal population counts. The raking procedure converged in 8 iterations.
              Marquette did not weight by "18-44", but by narrower intervals.  The Census results give 18-29 at 16.45% of the population, and their weighted sample is quite close to that.  The Census results give 30-44 at 23.73% of the population, and their weighted sample is 15.3% of the population.  Conversely, the Census results gives 45-59 at 30.75%, but their weighted sample is 34.42%.  They also have a certain number of "don't know/refused", which they changed in some fashion, and which might account for some of the difference.

              They have a few too few30-44 and a few too many 45-59 for the Census, which in turn is a bit off from those exit polls you're citing (e.g. the Census has 40.68% of the population between 18 and 44).  

              Presumably, "correcting" that would have changed, say, the gender ratio, which is quite close to the Census results in the weighted sample, or perhaps it simply didn't meet their standard for an "off" result.

              Would tweaking that change the results?  Probably not really, especially since Baldwin trailed Thompson by more among 30-44 respondents in the weighted sample than she did among 45-59 respondents.

              Does this mean the sample is worthless?  I don't know why that would be.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:15:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  BTW (0+ / 0-)

              Their sample doesn't have anything about "65+", but the sample is 29.04% 60+.

              Here's the exit poll.

              It doesn't break down quite the same way.  Hm...the exit poll says 18-29 was 21%, and Marquette and the Census shoot for 16.4%.  Not that big a difference.

              The exit poll says 30-39 was 19%, 40-49 was 22%, 50-64 was 23%, and 65+ was 14%.

              Marquette has 30-44 at just 15%, 45-59 at 34.4%, and 60+ at 29%.  

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:31:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  And also... (0+ / 0-)

              why trust the exit poll so much?  That's, itself, from some other pollster's "[s]tratified probability sample".  I don't know the exact procedure, though.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:35:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  you obviously weren't around for the FMW polls (0+ / 0-)

      these aren't even the most anti-reality things this week.

      •  Some things aren't taken seriously (0+ / 0-)

        Because they got one result right, of their universe of two, lots of people give Marquette credit they certainly have not earned.

        FMW is just a joke.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:54:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I am looking at their crosstab results (0+ / 0-)

      here.

      Thompson leads Baldwin among every age group in the weighted results--except 60+.  So "simple" re-weighting by age would actually just make things worse.

      And they actually already re-weighted the raw results by age to make the poll's set of respondents younger and less male--see here.

      In this sample, the population values for age and sex were determined by combining the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys conducted by the U.S. Census in Wisconsin.  A “raking” procedure was used to simultaneously balance the weights so that the sample distribution closely approximates the known population distributions for age and sex.  Other demographic characteristics including education, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, and region were sufficiently close to the population values that only age and sex were used for estimation of the weights.
      The combination of these things is itself interesting, since it suggests that Baldwin might be doing better in the unweighted sample, which was like half 60+.  But they also made the sample less male, and Thompson was doing better among men in the weighted sample, so who knows what the "raw" sample looks like, or if that matters.  (I don't know how "raking" works.)

      But I think this one reason why you might not be able to just "re-weight" a sample along one demographic measure when it's that's already been re-weighted along multiple demographic measures and get anything useful, even though we sometimes indulge in that kind of casual re-weighting.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:13:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *when it's (0+ / 0-)

        Not "when it's that's".  Sigh.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:22:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If anyone's interested (0+ / 0-)

        I found a concise explanation of "raking" here:

        The raking ratio estimation procedure is based on an iterative proportional fitting procedure and involves simultaneous ratio adjustments to two or more marginal distributions of the population counts. The purpose of the raking procedure in this survey is to improve the reliability of the survey estimates, and to correct for the bias due to missed households, namely, households without telephones and households with unlisted telephone numbers belonging to “zero-listed telephone banks.”

        The raking procedure is carried out in a sequence of adjustments. First, the base weights are adjusted to one marginal distribution and then to the second marginal distribution, and so on. One sequence of adjustments to the marginal distributions is known as a cycle or iteration. The procedure is repeated until convergence is achieved.

        So Marquette might have, say, first re-weighted by gender, and then re-weighted by age, and then re-weighted again by gender, and so on until it was closest to their desired results.

        Here's an article I can't access:

        Raking Raking (also called raking ratio estimation) is a post-stratification procedure for adjusting the sample weights in a survey so that the adjusted weights add up to known population totals for the post-stratified classifications when only the marginal population totals are known. The resulting adjusted sample weights provide a closer match between the sample and the population across these post-strata than the original sample. Raking, however, assumes that nonrespondents in each post-stratum are like respondents. Nonetheless, when implemented with care, raking improves the mean squared error of sample estimates.
        My sense is that's the big problem, but it's not unique to any pollster or data-collection agency.  Twohundertseventy said to me yesterday that "being a survey respondent is a very very weird characteristic".

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:53:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CQ just put North Dakota from Lean R to Toss-Up (11+ / 0-)

    It looks like Heitkamp can fight the odds and turn probably to possibly. I never thought it was impossible but it definitely is a heavy task.

    •  Excellent. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, itskevin, MichaelNY

      She's also been helped by Berg's stumbles.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:24:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  North Dakota is more conservative (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, lordpet8

      than it is Republican. And North Dakotans are certainly amenable to electing Democrats that they feel fit their values. Democrats held both Senate seats and the sole congressional district from 1987-2011.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:51:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I Would Argue Just The Opposite...... (7+ / 0-)

        North Dakota has a long populist and quasi-socialist history with a higher percentage of government per capita than any other state in the country...and not by a small margin.  For whatever reason, this history has coexisted with a connection to the Republican Party which continues to persist for the most part, but allows progressive-leaning federal politicians to continue being elected when the alternative is real-article conservatism as sold by the national Republican Party.

        •  hence why (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the Nonpartisan League did so well there in the old days.

          "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

          by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:24:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Good info in their story (4+ / 0-)

      It confirms that after all this time, Heitkamp's polling is holding up.  They say she's still narrowly down, but they don't clarify if that's both sides' private polling or what......the story seems to rely on GOP sources more than Dems, but that doesn't clarify much.  But she's in it to win it and can win.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:04:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So many panicky people in the morning thread. (5+ / 0-)

    I personally think they need to ease up and keep a tight upper lip.  maybe read this: http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:19:48 PM PDT

    •  The same folks were panicing three months ago (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, bythesea

      when Mitt went into hiding mole mode.  People don't see or hear Mitt talking, and he and other Republicans improve.

      Now, Mitt has used his second to last distraction (the convention being the last) to get the focus off himself.  Ryan was plainly his best possible choice among elected officials, and we are seeing a very obvious bounce to that effect.

      What the panickers ignore is what the people who at first loved the Ryan pick are so sure of.  But the thing about Ryan as a negative is... it has to be explained.  The issue has to be campaigned on.  Romney has to be made (in debates and punditland) to state his support of vouchers repeatedly.  Most voters like Ryan at first glance.  Right now we are at first glance.  Most voters disagree with Ryan on the issues.  We have to spend weeks and months explaining the ramifications of Ryan's position and Mitt and the Republicans supporting it.  If folks like bjssp are right, Ryanism will kill Romney and Reublicans downballot, but that will occur during the campaign, not in the first week of Ryan being a nominee.

      Sadly for them though, panickers can't see beyond the short term.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:11:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and even though they paniced 3 months ago (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bythesea

        2.5 months later, Romney was falling close to 10 points behind Obama.

        Mitt was dead, and downballot Republicans were hurting, ten days ago.  Now Mitt has gotten a Frankenstein burst of faux-life, and it scares the scareable.  

        BFD, he's come back to life by strapping a toxic albatross around his neck.  All we have to do now is run a campaign where we honestly represent what the Republicans want to do, and we'll win -- unless the voters genuinely want vouchers, etc.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:15:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We got to points 3 and 4 today (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      okiedem

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      DCCyclone jumped the gun w/r/t point 5, already answering all of us who are looking at the completely modest and temporary Ryan bump that Romney is getting.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:03:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Vermont: Obama 62-25 (11+ / 0-)

    Castelton State college poll.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:46:21 PM PDT

  •  yay, more big blue numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, MichaelNY

    Ok no-one exactly had doubts about VT but it's another one, after the NY poll yesterday, in a solidly blue state where Obama's numbers are holding up relative to 2008 levels.

    No evidence in either of these that Obama might be outperforming his national numbers in the more highly-polled swing states - quite the reverse in fact.

    •  What states do you think (0+ / 0-)

      will have the greatest change relative to the national numbers?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:18:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  can you clarify the question a bit? (0+ / 0-)

        You mean which states will have the greatest change in their divergence from the national average in comparison with the 2008 numbers?

        •  Yes, that's what I mean exactly. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          For example: Which of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida will be D+ (considering the 2012 results only)?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:36:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  well, of the well-polled ones (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

          WI and NV are both looking like they will lose quite a lot of the positive divergence (from a Dem perspective) they showed in 08. NC was about R+7 in the last election and I doubt it will exceed R +3 this time round, whether or not Romney pulls out a win. AZ will also probably move our way but that's a bit of a cheat because of the subtraction of the McCain home state effect. Romney seems more or less "homeless" so I'm not sure he's going to make much difference anywhere.

          Certainly not a subject I'd be willing to place any bets on though.

      •  I suspect North Carolina will be at the top (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Should be a close one even if Obama barely wins re-election, giving it a much more neutral PVI.  Virginia also might shift to a Dem PVI this year (which hasn't happened since 1948).  I also expect California to deliver 60% to Obama again, and for Washington and Oregon to also become even more Democratic than the country as a whole.

        In the other direction, I think Utah and perhaps Idaho will have the greatest gains in GOP PVI, going back to Bush 2004 numbers even if Obama wins re-election.  Massachusetts I would also expect to be in the 15 point range as opposed to the 25 point range.  Romney might also top 60% in West Virginia, furthering that state's GOP turn.

        •  Remember that (0+ / 0-)

          the state-level changes (multiplied by turnout, of course) have to add up to the national change.    

          So if NC and VA and CA and WA and OR all become more D+, then that's, uh, 92 districts worth of people?  Something like that.

          Utah, Idaho, Massachusetts, and West Virginia only have 18 districts worth of people or so.  Even if you make these changes larger in magnitude, I'm not sure how it all adds up.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:05:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How's about this (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, SaoMagnifico, Skaje

            Shifting D: NC, VA, CA, TX, AZ, OH, MN

            Shifting R: MA, CT, NJ, WV, KY, TN, MO, AL, MS, OK, IL, IN, MI, WI, ND, NE, KS, UT, ID, OR

            So 146 districts' worth of folks shifting D vs. 136 going the other way. (I think.)

            •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

              at first it seems unlikely OH would Shift D while neighbors IN and MI don't, but...

              MI is Romney's birth state, and I do think he'll get a bump with those who remember his father; IN is a state Obama really overperformed in.

              I don't think AZ will get any bluer; I'd classify it as stagnant this cycle.  And if ND shifts R, why wouldn't SD?

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:51:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Each of those midwestern states (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Xenocrypt, SaoMagnifico

                is sort of sui generis. With MI, I think the 2008 Obama vote was a bit inflated because of McCain's (high-profile) abandoning of the state late in the campaign. With IN, we're going from a situation where Obama but not McCain competed there, to one where neither side is competing. Sort of the opposite for MN, where McCain competed in 2008 but Obama didn't, and now neither side is. WI: Ryan effect. IL: a bit of regression to the mean due to a slight dampening of home-state enthusiasm for Obama. OH: that's something I frankly wouldn't have predicted, but the polls say what they say. Maybe it's cuz of the auto bailout, or maybe Ohioans have a keener eye for Romney's atrociousness as a human being than others do.

                I wouldn't be shocked if all 3 of ND/SD/MT shift red, just because polling in the very white northern tier states has seemed relatively swingy, regarding Obama. But the background of the last few cycles is of all three shifting slightly blue, so I wouldn't be shocked if that continued either. I only picked out ND because I figure the oil boom might give the state a more extraction industries-based mentality at the margins. Of course those populations are pretty negligible.

                I would almost guarantee AZ shifts blue just due to the loss of the McCain home state effect. (Might apply to Alaska too, I suppose.) Plus the growing minority population there doesn't hurt.

                •  I think you're right to assume that (0+ / 0-)

                  the biggest difference--as far as campaign effects go--is between campaigning and not campaigning at all.  I've thought so too, at least.  

                  The polls might say what they might, but I'll still be stunned if Ohio really ends up as significantly D+.

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:36:49 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  right, forgot about the home state effect (0+ / 0-)

                  I think AZ will go back to 2004 PVI, or something close to it.

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:30:22 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  A good point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            All changes to PVI must balance in the end (allowing for slight variations for turnout differences).  I was just thinking of the largest expected shifts.  I suspect a great many more states will have small GOP PVI shifts to make up for the ones I listed, such as a bunch in the northeast (NH, CT, NJ) and central US (KS, NE, ND, SD).  Again, not gigantic states at all, but throw in some smaller GOP shifts in the deep south and I think we're close to balancing.

            •  When I look at preseason MLB predictions... (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, LordMike, jncca, Skaje, MichaelNY

              ...in any of the magazines at the bookstore, they make up hypothetical win-loss records in their standings prediction.  I sometimes add them up, and the total wins and losses NEVER match.  These folks just don't think about that!

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:03:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  and the VT poll also shows him gaining from (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, MichaelNY

      58 in February to 62 and Romney has every so slightly dropped from 33 to 25.

      What states do you think will have the greatest change relative to the national numbers?
      Well a couple of tight PPP polls from OR, CT recently compared to the 2008 campaign and obviously IA and WI are closer at this time.

      That should change [I hope!]

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:44:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Per Twitter, Akin has raised 83K so far(in 1 day?) (5+ / 0-)

    He's aiming for 100K by midnight.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:36:16 PM PDT

  •  Minnesota HD-7B (8+ / 0-)

    Gauthier, after previously saying he was staying it, is withdrawing.

    http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/...

    Duluth city councilman Jay Fosle is now the prohibitive favorite in a write-in candidacy.

  •  Rick Warren not hosting presidential forum (5+ / 0-)

    this year.

    He says it's because the discourse has become so negative, but I dont know that an event was ever scheduled.

  •  RI-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, lordpet8

    even the right-wing nutjob who ran against Cicilline for mayor in 2006 is laughing at Anthony Gemma's claims of voter fraud: http://blogs.wpri.com/...

    Gemma is seriously crazy. at this point it's an open question as to how much more electable he would be than Cicilline, or whether it would be worth it to have him in office (since, after all, Doherty would be a likely goner in 2014 if he wins this year).

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:05:44 PM PDT

    •  I've felt for awhile (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, lordpet8

      it's much better to risk losing with Cicilline and easily get this back two years later, rather than have to primary out Gemma in 2014.

      I still find it extraordinarily unlikely Cicilline loses.  Yeah he's unpopular, but we are talking about a 67% Obama seat in a partisan urban area that has no history of supporting moderate Republicans.  Maybe if it was another 2010, these things can happen in wave years.  But not in a neutral climate with presidential turnout.

      •  Actually the district (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, Skaje

        has supported a moderate R, its just been awhile

        you just have to turn the clock back to 1988

        Ronald Machtley ran for Congress as a Republican in the 1st District and defeated 28-year incumbent Democrat Fernand St. Germain in a considerable upset. He was reelected two more times and was very popular even as Rhode Island was trending more and more Democratic. In 1992, for instance, he was reelected with a staggering 70 percent of the vote even as Bill Clinton easily carried the state. He was a moderate Republican in the mold of John Chafee.
        This was one of the few open seats that Dems won back in the 1994 blood bath

        "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

        by lordpet8 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:40:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Quinnipiac Polls tomorrow: WI, FL, OH (3+ / 0-)

    An article was linked above mentioning a new Wisconsin poll, but Florida and Ohio will be released too, Thursday at 7am.

    •  Last round was 6 point Obama leads in each state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      I wouldn't expect such good results in each this time around.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:47:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  in OH perhaps (0+ / 0-)

        But that FL poll looked an outlier and WI seems to have shifted a few points since Ryan got drafted.

        •  Q-poll, like others this year, is VERY noisy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It's become impossible to predict how a pollster will come out in a given state, especially when they already have a record of wild volatility.

          A few things have been a little bit predictable.  For example, PPP always gets the same results in North Carolina and Virginia, and their few Michigan polls have been largely consistent.  That still doesn't mean they're exactly right, but both campaigns' behavior suggests they're not far off.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:53:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Last round of QUI polls shifted (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        from RV to LV models;

        so for example FL;
        RV - 6/19 - 6/25    1200 RV  45-41 Obama +4
        LV - 7/24 - 7/30    1177 LV  51-45 Obama +6

        and Ohio;
        RV - 6/19 - 6/25    1237 RV 47-38 Obama +9
        LV - 7/24 - 7/30    1193 LV 50-44 Obama +6

        "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

        by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:08:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They need to poll their own backyard (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, thankgodforairamerica

      CT is their base, and it has been 2 months since they polled it.

  •  PPP MA is pretty good [LV Model] (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, jj32, askew

    Obama 55
    Romney 39

    Obama +16

    The same numbers as RV Model last time;

    RCP Average 54.0 35.3 Obama +18.7

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:38:09 PM PDT

  •  Isaac still on track to hit GOP convention Mon. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Seems to be the latest forecast, 5pm Wed.

    It will be really interesting if Tampa's mayor attempts  to try and call off that convention

    •  Seen some snarky comments about (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

      this from Dems. Really not cool given that some things, like public safety, are above politics.

      But if you want to look at it from a political angle, if the convention is cancelled, couldnt GOP have a quasi-convention(with speeches from Romney/Ryan and others) sometime after the DNC? I mean, I think they have to nominate Romney by early Sept to get him on the ballot everywhere. But they could have the speeches later and networks would probably have to cover it.

  •  Nevada's "none of the above" option (8+ / 0-)

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:43:18 PM PDT

    •  Wow. NOTA was one of the cute things about NV (5+ / 0-)

      politics.
      The article says:

      The case has important implications—Republicans want to eliminate NOTA because they think doing so will help get more anti-Obama votes for Romney.
      •  I doubt it will help them (7+ / 0-)

        Most NOTA voters will just convert to undervotes.  They're not going to pick Romney or any challenger in any year simply as "the new default."

        This is not something that should concern us as Democrats, although I imagine some folks in Nevada might be pissed who like being able to voice dissent in this unique way.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:49:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In 2008, NOTA got 0.65% (4+ / 0-)

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:16:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah the RNC funded the complaint (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Source

          I don't get it.  Why are Republicans assuming that None-of-the-above voters would vote GOP if forced?  Not that you can even "force" anyone, they can always vote third party, write-in the Lizard People, or simply undervote, as I imagine a lot of these NOTA voters are going to do instead.  Out of the tiny percentage of people who actually choose NOTA, an even smaller percentage would actually back one of the two main candidates.  And the GOP thinks to win based on that?

          Maybe they are going with the "undecideds always back the challenger" rule, which by the way is also false.  And even if true, what effect do Republicans think it would have on the Senate race, in which the Democrat is the challenger?

          •  Your second paragraph explains it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They view this as a variation on "undecideds vote for the challenger."

            Problem is, these people by definition don't.

            There really are significant undervotes in a Presidential.  There were something like a million or so 2008 voters who didn't vote for any

            Oh, and there are minor party candidates!

            The NOTA voters will go either minor party or leave the Presidential line blank, they won't vote for Romney.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:34:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Kentucky SD-21 field set (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Sen. Tom Jensen (R-London) left the ballot to run for a judgeship. The GOP nominated former Sen. Albert Robinson, and the Dems nominated an owner of a mobile home park, Amie Acker. Robinson has many critics (for his efforts to boost legislative pensions), but this is a very Republican seat. Rand Paul won 66% in this district, and even David Williams won here by almost 800 votes. One Democrat, Alison Lundergan Grimes did carry the seat. Unless a lot of Republicans turn on Robinson, this should be a safe GOP seat come November.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:47:11 PM PDT

  •  CA-26: Strickland ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY


    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:08:16 PM PDT

  •  Prez campaign ads that work, and don't (5+ / 0-)

    I don't know if this was previously posted, but an interesting David Lauter piece in LAT reports some independent focus group results.  Focus groups are not as scientific as polls, and they're a controlled lab which cannot mimic how voters react to ads in their cluttered and busy real lives with competing ads flying around TV back-to-back.  But they're still one valuable tool to examine how voters react.

    The short of the story is that Romney's welfare attack doesn't work, but his "character attack" ad hitting Obama for the Priorities USA "cancer" ad works.  Meanwhile, Obama's "America the Beautiful" ad, which is pretty cutting, works great for Obama to make people dislike Romney.

    The P-USA ad doesn't actually bother me on the merits at all, but obviously it bothers the media, and there's a reason P-USA has avoided actually airing it in paid ads despite the disclosure.  But Mitt might still getting some backlash mileage out of it.

    That "America the Beautiful" works so well explains why it's on the air all the damn time.  I've seen it more than any other ad by anyone, anytime.

    OFA does all this kind of research and more on their own ads, and frankly I think they're working and they're why Obama is narrowly winning with no slippage through many months of disappointing economic data (even though the past month has had some better data).

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:27:45 PM PDT

    •  They're still playing it? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY

      Good.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:54:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I haven't seen it in awhile, but that doesn't mean it's not been on, as I could've just coincidentally missed it.  But it was on at least through the Olympics, I know for sure I saw it then.  And it was on for a very long time before that.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:12:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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