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Public Policy Polling (PDF). 8-16/19. Likely voters. MoE ±2.7% (7/5-8 in parentheses, using registered voters):

Tammy Baldwin (D): 44 (45)
Tommy Thompson (R): 49 (45)
Undecided: 7 (11)
While Democrats in the know were cheering Todd Akin's victory in a closely contested three-way primary in Missouri a few weeks ago (and, given the events of the last few days, you know exactly why), they were a lot less glib with the victory by ex-four-term-Gov. Tommy Thompson in a similarly closely fought Republican Senate primary in Wisconsin one week later. And here's the reason why: Compared with Thompson's untested and more explicitly right-wing opponents, Thompson has polled fairly well against Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin. And, with the first polls coming out since last week's primary, it's clear that's continued post-primary; in fact, Thompson's position may well have gotten better thanks to a post-primary unity bump, an overall Wisconsin bump for the GOP from Paul Ryan's addition to the ticket, or both.

PPP's Tom Jensen points out that the best explanation for Thompson's improvement seems to be that he's consolidated any remaining GOP voters who weren't voting for him previously; he leads 93-4 among Republicans, up from an 84-7 share in their last poll (where the Baldwin/Thompson race was tied). Thompson's also up to 46/43 favorables overall, after being at 40/47 last month; again, that comes from Republicans, as among only GOPers—now reconciled to the fact that they're going to have to vote for him, instead of one of his more conservative challengers, in November—he went from 60/26 last month to 80/12 now.

Baldwin, by contrast, is at 40/45 favorables. That doesn't seem to have a lot to do with her sexual orientation—by a 64/23 margin, voters said they'd be okay with supporting an LGBT candidate for office—but more a question of ideology. Forty-five percent of the respondents said they'd want the Republicans to control the Senate while 44 percent preferred the Democrats, so this is a very different situation from PPP's recent Massachusetts poll where a lot of voters preferred the Democrats to be in charge and were voting for Scott Brown anyway.

This is, of course, the same PPP sample that was notoriously +1 for Mitt Romney, which has led to some suspicions that the whole thing might be too Republican-leaning. Indeed, the presidential topline of the poll points in that direction; it self-identifies 32 percent Democratic and 34 percent GOP, and it went 53-41 for Barack Obama in 2008, compared with an actual '08 vote of 56-42. However, Wisconsin has gone through a lot of upheaval since 2008, and the sample does seem to match one more recent (and potentially more telling) benchmark; on the question of support for Republican Gov. Scott Walker or a Generic D, Walker wins 51-46, very close to the actual margin of this year's recall election. (It is also worth noting that this is PPP's first Wisconsin poll since moving to the likely voter model, which generally creates a pro-Republican shift.)

Marquette Univ. Law School. 8-16/19. Likely voters. MoE ±4.2% (8/2-5 in parentheses, using registered voters):

Tammy Baldwin (D): 41 (43)
Tommy Thompson (R): 50 (48)
A second poll shows an even bigger gap for Baldwin, although, unlike PPP, it's a pollster who has routinely put up numbers showing Thompson winning over Baldwin by a significant margin. It's from Charles Franklin at Marquette Law School, whom you might remember from coming the closest to pinning down the margin in the gubernatorial recall. They find similar favorables as PPP does, with Thompson at 40/38 and Baldwin at 32/37.

On the other hand, this same sample has Barack Obama looking like he's in reasonable shape in Wisconsin, up 3, leading Mitt Romney 49-46. (That's changed little from the previous poll before Ryan's VP selection, which put Obama up 50-45.) At any rate, though, there's a big difference between the two polls: PPP finds Baldwin lagging Obama only by a few points, seeming to rise and fall with broader Democratic fortunes, while Marquette has usually found a lot more distance between her and the top of the Democratic ticket. Either way, she has a lot of minds to change in the next few months.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:28 PM PDT.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Marquette has done better in Wisconsin this year (5+ / 0-)

    But there is a noticeable post-primary bounce for Thompson, as he improved in both polls.

    The question now is, can Baldwin make up the ground?

    •  Marquette fail in the Hovde and Neumann numbers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, 3goldens

      And that make bigger the margins for Thompson. I think Marquette shows a biass toward Thompson. Here again Baldwin numbers seems too low.

      I hope Baldwin keep the fight very hard.

    •  Three questions: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, WisVoter

      1. What do you expect the D/R/I break down to be?

      2. Do you expect Thompson to get more Democrats than Baldwin gets Republicans, like I do?

      3. Which candidate will win Indies?

      I doubt the partisan split will be as Democratic as it was in 2008, but I also don't think Republicans will be more prominent than Democrats and just as prominent as Independents. I'll use 36/34/30. Let's say Thompson will get 95 percent of Republicans and ten percent of Democrats. In that situation, she'd need to get about 53 or 54 percent of Independents to win, only barely I might add.

      If the sample is more Democratic, say 37/34/29, and the same 90-10 and 95-5 splits occur, she'd need about the same number. Unless it's just as Democratic, if not more so, than it was in 2008, that is; but as I already said, I doubt that is going to be the case.

      The question is, can she win Independents?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:25:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Answers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker, LordMike, homerun

        1. I don't think Republicans will reach parity in November. Given how polarized the state is I suspect it'll be 40D-38R-22I.

        2. For sure. And the cross-tabs of these polls show that. Thompson has consolidated the Hovde/Neumann vote already. Baldwin is going to have a real tough time with the Democrats in districts 2 7 and 8 given her position on guns. Also, Thompson is closer to ideological center than Baldwin, so we are ceding the ideological middle ground. I suspect Thompson will get about 7-8% of the Democratic vote whereas Baldwin may pull 3-4% of Republicans.

        3. I think Thompson wins independents. Independents tend to be less ideologically driven, and fondly remember the long tenure as governor. Time generally improves peoples perceptions of politicians after they leave office, and Thompson has been out of office for a while.

        •  I think you mean districts 3, 7, and 8 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          3goldens, rosarugosa

          WI-02 is Baldwin's district, where she should do quite well. WI-03 is Thompson's home district, so locking down the Democratic vote there will be a special challenge for Baldwin.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:20:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  point 3 (0+ / 0-)

          Yeah, unfortunately. Such a shame that Hovde couldn't get the win in the R primary.
          Will be tough for Tammy now.

        •  Interesting. (0+ / 0-)

          I guess I agree that Thompson is closer to the center than Baldwin, but then, this is all the more reason to argue that he will be beholden the national party, not himself or the people of Wisconsin.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:33:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Hopefully Baldwin get some Obama coattails. (6+ / 0-)

    Hate to think Wisconsin could be totally red in the Senate.   Thanks for the polling though.  Hoping Baldwin can improve those numbers.

  •  This is the problem for Baldwin (8+ / 0-)

    A lot of people have good feelings for Tommy - he was a Republican governor back in the good old days when Republicans were actually somewhat reasonable on most issues, and he was also a governor forever.  Even if he is now catering to the radical crowd, I think a lot of people simply would dismiss that as meaningless pandering.  

    So, the task would be to paint him as a person who has become more of an extremist over time, or to argue that despite his relative moderation, he would do whatever his radical constituents demanded he do, or otherwise argue that he is somehow no longer "right" for the state.

    I think it's a huge challenge for Baldwin and I think it's likely that Thompson wins.  That said, he's not ideological and, under the right circumstances, he is the type of old-guard Republican who may occasionally vote our way on certain issues.  

    The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

    by rfahey22 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:44:39 PM PDT

  •  here's hoping Baldwin's oppo-research improves nt (0+ / 0-)

    Don't roof rack me bro', Now the brown's comin' down; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:51:47 PM PDT

  •  No one ever went broke underestimating the stupid- (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BRog, LordMike, pademocrat

    ity of the American people.

    On the other hand, it's still early.  Maybe the majority will smarten up.

  •  This is really sad. Who are these people who (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    are voting Obama/Thompson or Obama/Brown?

    Oh well. Time to donate again.
    Maybe an ActBlue widget could be added to the diary?

  •  The Paul Ryan bump (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is most likely the biggest around his hometown, which is just outside of Madison.  This could really be hurting Baldwin, since she is strongest in the Madison area.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:57:34 PM PDT

    •  Ryan's name is mud in the Madison area (5+ / 0-)

      which FWIW does not include his hometown of Janesville. The Madison area really only starts at Stoughton, about 25 miles northwest of Janesville. However, without Ryan on the ticket, Baldwin would probably do extremely well in Janesville, like she does in Beloit.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:14:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Crazy to think though (8+ / 0-)

    that a state that just two years ago had a Dem. Governor, two Dem. senators (including one of the most notable progressives in the last few decades), and went for Obama by 13 points could, at the end of this year, have two GOP senators and a radically conservative (and popular) GOP governor.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:00:19 PM PDT

  •  He made a lot of enemies as governor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Many of them within his own caucus. I'll be curious to see if any of them decide to use his history of somewhat flamboyant non-marital extracurricular activities against him. If nothing else, it should keep his camp from having the audacity to try making Baldwin's sexuality an issue to whip up his base with.

    •  Care to elaborate? (0+ / 0-)

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:43:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He made John Edwards look like a choir boy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        At a time when his wife was also battling breast cancer. It was an open secret that he was a serial womanizer, with at least one woman rumored to have been paid off with a state job.

        I've heard from more than a few of my friends at the Capitol that a reporter from a major national outlet has compiled a dossier on him and has been waiting until he becomes a viable candidate for office again to publish a story about his shenanigans as governor. I guess we'll find out if that's true soon enough.  

  •  Both PPP and Marquette missed the primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    by more than a little, so a huge pile of salt for two polls.

    Worse, the polls don't mean anything, as they are both taken when the Republicans are at the peak of two large bounces: WI Ryan for VP, and Tommy winning the nomination.

    What these polls are: the very best possible ceiling for the Republicans in WI this year.

    Democrats don't have the chance for the same bounces, but they just have to campaign, which will lead to Obama winning the state 95% likely and Baldwin in what everyone should have seen as a very tough race from the get go.  Republicans get the only candidate they have who could win in a Prez year, and Dems get an only middlingy strong candidate.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:08:37 PM PDT

    •  One other thing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      As usual, PPP's WI sample is totally silly as it is only Obama2008 +8 instead of in the +14 neighborhood as it should be.  This is about the difference of no one voting for a Dem from Dane county.

      So if turnout turns out to be like it has been here on Earth before, PPP is saying the race is a tossup.

      However, PPP's last garbage poll had a sample of Obama2008 +0.  Of course that is simply impossible, but that sample had the race tied.  Now with a +8 Obama2008 sample, Tommy is ahead by 5 points.

      That means Tommy has had a huge bounce since the last poll.  It's still a pure tossup with a 2008 electorate, but the bounces from both Ryan and Tommy winning have definitely made this race competitive, instead of easy Dem wins.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:20:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Marquette had it right... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, VClib, nimh, rosarugosa

      Final poll had Thompson 28, Hovde 20 with 21% undecided.   Final margin was much closer, but Marquette picked the winner.  Marquette was also dead on in the recall.  Ignoring these results is not wise.  Tammy has to find a message to break through.  It can be done, but she can't play this like it's close -- especially with the avalanche of superpac/c4 money about to come in.

      "This is not class warfare. It's math." - Barack Obama 9/19/11

      by DaveV on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:23:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No they were very wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        They missed the marging by six points.  That is outside the margin of error, and truly lame.

        That is rasmussen territory.

        Pretending otherwise is foolish.  Marquette's track record is two polls.  One was the recall that they got dead on.  The other is the primary which they missed by a lot.  The correct result could have been a fluke.  The badly wrong result could have been a fluke.  Basing anything on a pollster who is right half the freaking time is not a good assumption.  They merely are a data point, that's all.

        Also, Marquette once again perpetuates their lie that these are "likely voters" results.  they are not.  They only count "absolutely certain" to vote people.  They discard all "very likely" and all "50/50" likely people.  This is both deceptive of them, and pretty dopey, as by definition they should be counting half of the 50/50 respondents and most of the very likely ones.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:33:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They do include numbers for all registered voters (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          too, but deliberately mislabel "likely voters".

          They have Obama +6 with registered voters, so the genuine "likely voters" number is somewhere between the +3 of "absolutely certain" voters and the +6 of all registed voters.  +5 is probably the most accurate number for genuine "likley voters".

          (Marquette discards 80 "very likely" voters; 26 "50/50" voters; and 15 "will not vote" voters.  So the bulk of the difference between the +3 certain, and +6 registered numbers are primarily "very likely" voters with very few "will not vote" people included.)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:40:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Are you sure (0+ / 0-)

          that's outside the margin of error? Remember that the margin of error doubles when you're talking about the margin between two candidates. If the margin of error was +/-3%, being 6 points off on the margin is not outside the MoE.

      •  Actually now having looked at the age breakdown (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        3goldens, WisVoter

        of the Marquette poll, paying any attention to it simply stupid.  

        Sorry, but seniors are not going to turn out at a rate 2.5 times greater than they turned out in 2008.  Voters under 44 are not going to turn out at a rate only 60% of what they turned out in 2008.

        The poll is not a representative sample of the electorate, so it means nothing at all... other than to raise a huge red flag over Marquette as a pollster.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:02:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama/Baldwin on Medicare/Romney-Ryan Plan (0+ / 0-)

    This is a topic I've been meaning to broach for a few days and will probably ask several more times during the campaign.

    I've given up on trying to track what Romney and Ryan say in regards to the different versions of the Ryan plan, specifically in regards to Medicare, given that they change what they say so frequently. But while I've said that I don't trust these guys any farther than I can throw them, there's now a definite case to be made that they will kick younger seniors already in the program if need be. See this link, via Brad DeLong, to understand why.

    Now, I've said in the past that the target demographic for Obama should be those 45-64--as in, the people close(r) to being on the entitlements who are also probably the most vulnerable because they are older, have been hit hard or even harder than most by the recession, and who have the least amount of time to make up for what they've lost. This group also happens to be at least twice as large as seniors in most elections and appears to be more friendly to Democrats in general. If we can win this group solidly, by say a 55-45 margin, we will probably keep the presidency and Senate and take back the House.

    But if we can at least hold our own amongst seniors, let alone improve? I'd guess that would correspond to a truly dominant performance in the 45-64 group, which would mean a blowout victory, the sort that allows Obama to creep up. Whatever the case, it has to help a lot, since this is guaranteed to be Obama's worst group. It also happens to be Baldwin's worst group. And if I had to guess, I'd say it's every Democrat's worst group, no matter what the state.

    Well anyway, to end this post, which was supposed to be short (haha), let me ask you guys, do you think we can make progress on this front? Will OFA and other Democratic groups try? Part me of currently thinks OFA has been holding its fire to try to quell any sort of momentum or positive sentiment generated by the Republican convention, which starts next week.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:12:00 PM PDT

  •  I would currently rank, with heavy (0+ / 0-)

    Emphasis on currently, the presidential race between tilt and leans Obama. Senate race somewhere between tilt and leans Thompson. Plenty of scope for both to change yet.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:15:00 PM PDT

  •  Big news is that Obama is +3 in this poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    over Romney/Ryan (Marquette).  Keep in mind that this polling firm nailed the recall exactly.  There is/was a Ryan bump, but it was marginal and probably in the MOE.

    As for Baldwin, I think she can rally women voters and progressive groups to make the race easier for Obama.  However, I sense that a lot of voters want to give a republican with a moderate reputation a chance, which favors Thompson.  Baldwin can make this a 4 point race, which would probably boost Obama into the high single digits.

    I think Berkeley has a great shot to win over the tea bagger in NV. I like McCaskill over Akin, Heitkamp over Berg.  

    I think we'll also win in NM, VA, FL.  Montana is a true toss-up with a slight edge to Rehberg.  He was clever enough to start running away from Ryan long before Romney picked him.

    GOP will win in NE.  I think Brown has to be slightly favored over Warren but she can turn it around (again, Brown benefits from not being a tea bagger).  I see the GOP making a net gain of 2 seats in the US Senate at this point.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:15:37 PM PDT

  •  party splits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    As mentioned above, this poll has a party split that is probably too favorable to the GOP. If you assume that the actual split in November will be halfway between 2004 and 2008 you end up with a split of 37d-35.5r-28i.

    Using this hypothetical split between the parties and PPP's numbers within them (Baldwin wins Dems 88-7, loses GOP 4-93, loses indies 42-45), Thompson is ahead just 2-3 points. I'd believe that, but I'd also believe he's up 5.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:15:38 PM PDT

  •  Marquette vs 2008 exit poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Mindboggling difference here:

    2008 exit 18-44  = 51%
    Marquette 18-44 = 31%


    2008 exit 65+  = 12%
    Marquette 65+ = 29%

    Holy outlier Batman.  A sample like this is of no value since it is not even close to what a Presidential year electorate looks like.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:50:23 PM PDT

  •  It really worries me (7+ / 0-)

    When people try to dismiss 2 solid pollsters just because Baldwin is down.

    Listen we have to be honest with ourselves here, this race is Lean R right this minute.

    Can Baldwin win?  Sure its possible, but her ceiling is very low and Thompson has a decent lead.  It's going to take a few breaks going our way and Tammy running a nearly perfect campaign to win this.

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:57:56 PM PDT

  •  I certainly hope Baldwin's campaign . . . (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, NoMoreLies, kat herder

    . . . includes someone in the S.R. Siddarth role, tracking Tommy at every campaign appearance with a video camera. Tommy is a gaffe machine, as his knee-slapper of a presidential campaign in '08 proved. I have a feeling that it won't take much to bring on a Macaca moment that could turn this whole thing upside down. Hell, if I were in Wisconsin, I'd charge up a video camera and do it myself!

    29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

    by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:17:43 PM PDT

  •  Baldwin to speak @ DNC Convention in Charlotte!! (7+ / 0-)

    Just announce on Hardball. Hopefully it will boost her in race. Along with Warren in her race. I think it's good both of them will be on primetime speaking at the convention!

  •  PPP has become (0+ / 0-)

    so flaky even DCCyclone has started lumping them in with junk pollster Ras.

    I'm sure it's the cellphone effect- PPP got away with it last cycle but it's finally biting them now.

    Marquette claims to get both landline and cell phone users, so I'm more inclined to believe their results.

    Therefore it's discouraging they show the trend is against Tammy.
    Maybe their switch to a likely voter screen is a bit to blame.

    •  polling is harder now? (0+ / 0-)

      It seems that polling is getting harder every year. There have been a lot more polls with head-scratching results this year than in previous years. Even Pew has come up with some really weird samples.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 04:50:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tipped, recced and republished to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I started with nothing and still have most of it left. - Seasick Steve

    by ruleoflaw on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 03:33:56 PM PDT

  •  Balwin is to liberal for wi (0+ / 0-)

    She is great for Madison but a majority of the state is pretty conservative she needs massive turnout in Dane county and Milwaukee city. Also the fact that she is gay is probably hurting among some of the voters and possibly the AA voters.

    •  A majority of the state conservative? (7+ / 0-)

      Odd considering no Republican presidential candidate has won it since Reagan in the 1984 landslide.

      We don't need to run Ben Nelson to win here.

    •  You are wrong. (6+ / 0-)

      While Dane County and the city of Milwaukee are among the most Democratic areas of the state, I would disagree with both your statement of Tammy being too liberal for this great state and that the state is pretty conservative.

      There are elements of conservatism is the state.  Tommy won for so many years not because he was conservative, but because he portrayed himself as being a populist guy from a small town and actually acting mid-right (not hard-right like Walker).

      The current Senate seat that is up for grabs has been in Democratic hands since 1957 (Proxmire & Kohl).  The other Senate seat over the same 55 years has been held by Democrats for 36 years (Nelson & Feingold).  And, during that same timeframe, Democrats have been in the governorship for 26 of those 55 years.

      Tammy is electable in our state.  She's had strong positive ads, along with some recent ads hitting Tommy pretty hard.  Slogan...  Tommy Thompson, he's not for you anymore.  Watch the ad here:  "No" ad

      Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

      by CentralWIGuy on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:41:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hate when ppl say that (4+ / 0-)

      I bet you if folks like Sestak, Gianoulious won in '10 few ppl on here would not be saying that. You never hear ppl saying he/she is too conservative until now when these GOP primary voters vote for these nutjobs.

      Baldwin is a good nominee, her problem is that she's going against a ex 4 term Governor. If he did'nt win last Tuesday then the race would be a Tossup/slight D instead of a Tossup/Slight R.

      Feingold who I love dearly and wish he didn't lost last cycle. Unfortunately you have to forget about morals and principles and throw that shit out the window. He was adimit in refusing outside money and was willin to campaign wit a hand tied behind his back. Fortunately Baldwin doesn't subscribe to that.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13,

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:07:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think AA voters mind gay candidates (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      considering how many of them support marriage equality. And for that matter, I don't think Wisconsin Latinos are especially averse to gay candidates, as Wisconsin's first and only Latin@ legislator, JoCasta Zamarripa, is openly bisexual.

      This is a purple state, but it's surprisingly hard to be too liberal or too conservative for Wisconsin. Gaylord Nelson was fairly popular in his day, and he was very liberal. On the other hand, the last Republican to hold this Senate seat was none other than Tailgunner Joe, who actually got reelected despite the intense controversy surrounding him.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:48:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great tag-line for Tammy Baldwin ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The margin in both these polls is particularly unfortunate, because TT is so well known in Wisconsin.  It's impossible to pre-emptively define him with a burst of early ads or similar techniques.

    So maybe the campaign could re-introduce him to Wisconsin voters, overturn his moderate image, link him to the worst of the right wing, pound on his lobbying work for lots of unsavory clients, etc.

    Just thought of a theme they could use, to tie a series of such ads together: "Tommy, we thought we knew ya" (with music in the background, to the tune of Johnny, we hardly knew ya).

    What do you think?

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